Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5660
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5640", "results": [ { "id": 2766, "title": "Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-23-may-2019-and-29-november-2019-will-the-imf-approve-one-or-more-tranches-for-release-to-ukraine", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-05-25T06:45:43.642566Z", "published_at": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.101016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-11-29T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-29T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:12:00Z", "open_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2766, "title": "Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?", "created_at": "2019-05-25T06:45:43.642566Z", "open_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-30T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-30T15:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-11-30T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-11-29T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-11-29T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In December 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 14-month, $3.9-billion loan program for Ukraine (<a href = \"https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/12/18/pr18483-ukraine-imf-executive-board-approves-14-month-stand-by-arrangement\"target=\"_blank\">IMF Press Release</a>, <a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/imf-approves-3-9-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine-as-debt-pinch-looms\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg1</a>, <a href = \"https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/UKR\"target=\"_blank\">IMF-Ukraine</a>). \nAccording to [Bloomberg1](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/imf-approves-3-9-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine-as-debt-pinch-looms):\n\n> * Fund clears first $1.4 billion tranche from new package \n\n> The International Monetary Fund approved a new $3.9 billion bailout program for Ukraine to stabilize the economy and help the government pay back its debts.\n\n> ...\n \n> The IMF is expected to consider releasing the next tranches in May and November, according to the Finance Ministry.\n\n\nThe recent presidential elections in April 2019, the planned parliamentary elections in October 2019, and other political considerations could affect the policies necessary for the funds to be released (<a href = \"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-24/ukraine-to-cut-gas-prices-in-move-that-may-strain-imf-relations\"target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg2</a>, <a href = \"https://www.unian.info/economics/10526745-elections-imf-what-to-expect-from-ukrainian-hryvnia.html\"target=\"_blank\">UNIAN</a>, <a href = \"https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/585267.html\"target=\"_blank\">Interfax</a>, <a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/02/ukraine-elections-shouldnt-derail-reform-efforts-central-bank-deputy-says.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>). The amount of each tranche is irrelevant for the resolution of this question.\n\n\n\n\n** Will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019? **", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1574981392.797022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1574981392.797022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.058806104100183505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.49846947614973, 2.719809392223843, 2.1463848868877777, 0.3722069427882975, 1.5233417823559403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08303507941585661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15521909484204122, 0.0, 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1574981392.819564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1574981392.819564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7711125284749507, 0.22888747152504924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2762, "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-05-20T21:06:07.606363Z", "published_at": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T10:04:35.112056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2762, "title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?", "created_at": "2019-05-20T21:06:07.606363Z", "open_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-26T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-26T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\n\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \n\nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \n\nThis question asks: **by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763719464.510951, "end_time": 1772016504.174592, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763719464.510951, "end_time": 1772016504.174592, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], 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0.5631529774513128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0342271433801301 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288483.730745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288483.730745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9589693617218771, 0.041030638278122866 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2754, "title": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for two consecutive Saturdays, will fewer than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-16-may-2019-and-30-july-2019-for-two-consecutive-saturdays-will-fewer-than-5000-cumulative-daily-protesters-participate-in-yellow-vests-protests-across-france", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-05-17T06:42:42.233176Z", "published_at": "2019-05-23T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.941415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-05-23T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-20T22:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-20T22:29:00Z", "open_time": "2019-05-23T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2754, "title": "Between 16 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, for two consecutive Saturdays, will fewer than 5,000 cumulative daily protesters participate in \"Yellow Vests\" protests across France?", "created_at": "2019-05-17T06:42:42.233176Z", "open_time": "2019-05-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-25T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-20T22:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-07-20T22:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-20T22:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "What began in November 2018 as protests against fuel tax hikes have grown into an ongoing series of protests across France, particularly on Saturdays ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/why-yellow-vests-remain-thorn-in-macron-presidency-quicktake), [France24(1)](https://www.france24.com/en/20181127-france-yellow-vest-protest-movement-macron-fuel-tax)) President Macron has offered concessions over several months, but the protests continue (<a href = \"https://www.france24.com/en/20190427-france-yellow-vest-macron-great-national-debate-act-24-tax-protest\"target=\"_blank\">France24(2)</a>, <a href = \"https://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-yellow-vests-are-unappeased-and-back-to-demanding-change-11556385648\"target=\"_blank\">WSJ</a>).\n\n\nResolves positive if in a period of two consecutive Saturdays, inclusive, the number of daily protesters add up to less than 5,000. Resolution shall be by credible media source reporting Ministry of the Interior estimates for protesters all over France. The question resolves negatively on July 30th 2019 or retroactively the day before any protest triggering positive resolution, whichever comes first.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563449319.431515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563449319.431515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.32784604703080183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14385162219704886, 0.7081278126566147, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.5305354475802987, 1.0135066800999952, 0.0, 0.003399429418515302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.695229420705823, 1.0709119907586901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08548842403507695, 0.14838949248543834, 0.0, 0.1879393751887922, 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"created_at": "2019-05-17T05:26:53.573584Z", "open_time": "2019-05-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-25T18:47:50.318656Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-25T18:47:50.318656Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-11-19T11:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-11-19T11:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-11-19T11:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [TOP500 list of the highest-performing computing systems](https://www.top500.org/lists/) is published twice per year, generally in June and November. Question will be resolved according to the data associated with the November 2019 TOP500 list. To access the data, visit [https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/](https://www.top500.org/statistics/list/):\n\n - Select 'November 2019' from the 'TOP500 Release' drop down menu;\n\n - Select 'Countries' in the 'Category' drop down menu.\n\n - Click 'Submit.' Question will be resolved according to the data illustrated in the 'Countries Performance Share' pie chart. (The pie chart reflects the \\(R_{max}\\) statistic, as \\(R_{max}\\) is maximum performance, and \\(R_{peak}\\) is theoretical maximum performance.)\n\nWhile historically the U.S. has been the #1 country in performance share of supercomputers, China held the #1 spot in [June 2016](https://www.top500.org/statistics/details/country/CN) and [Nov 2017](https://www.top500.org/statistics/details/country/US).\n\n**Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1572441699.265636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1572441699.265636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 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null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\n\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts before January 1, 2051.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2751, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763235069.014172, "end_time": 1763946507.743488, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763235069.014172, "end_time": 1763946507.743488, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 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"slug": "will-the-current-drc-ebola-outbreak-end-by-february-2020", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-05-15T10:19:49.962244Z", "published_at": "2019-05-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.532983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-05-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-06-14T21:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-14T21:14:00Z", "open_time": "2019-05-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "<small>\n\nNote: This question was resolved ambiguous because a clash was discovered between the title and resolution criteria. Since this clash was discovered rather late, it was decided that this question should resolve ambiguous to prevent unfair losses of MIPs by those who predicted based on the resolution criteria or title alone.\n\nThe [replacement of this question can be found here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2750/will-the-current-drc-ebola-outbreak-end-by-february-2020/). \n\n\n</small>\n\n---\n\nThe [Ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kivu_Ebola_outbreak) in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now [\"out of control\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/terrifying-ebola-epidemic-out-of-control-in-drc-say-experts). It was previously asked whether it would kill [more than 400 people](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1580/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-be-stopped-before-it-claims-400-lives/), and then [more than 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2573/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-claim-more-than-1000-lives/). Both having happened, it is sadly time for a third question.\n\n**Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?**\n\nResolution:\n\n - negative if it has been declared over by the WHO before midnight the 29th of February 2020.\n - positive otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1560546492.348386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1560546492.348386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.45671278227051715 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 1.212512737774686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0773927070098371, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2793, "title": "Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?", "created_at": "2019-05-15T10:19:49.962244Z", "open_time": "2019-06-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-06-15T08:49:20.528557Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-15T08:49:20.528557Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "<small> This is a replacement of [a previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2750/will-the-current-drc-ebola-outbreak-end-by-february-2020/) whose title and resolution criterion clashed, and was resolved ambiguous to prevent unfair losses of MIPs. \n</small>\n\n----\n\nThe [Ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kivu_Ebola_outbreak) in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now [\"out of control\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/terrifying-ebola-epidemic-out-of-control-in-drc-say-experts). It was previously asked whether it would kill [more than 400 people](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1580/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-be-stopped-before-it-claims-400-lives/), and then [more than 1000](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2573/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-claim-more-than-1000-lives/). Both having happened, it is sadly time for a third question.\n\n**Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves positive if, before midnight the 29th of February 2020, the WHO *has not* declared the current Ebola outbreak to be over. It resolves negative if the WHO declares the outbreak to be over.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2793, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1569868923.095834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1569868923.095834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7682483955439212 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5451197344970368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1371657512903841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06084405894284453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.006220517787109449, 0.2825516661653255, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_scoring_time": "2019-06-05T21:50:14.483403Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-02T22:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-02T22:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-02T22:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) states that \"Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements\".](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050)\n\nThe UK invoked Article 50 on March 2017, triggering a two-year process of exiting the European Union. However, the process has been fraught with difficulty and the British government has been unable to win enough support in Parliament to ratify Prime Minister Theresa May's negotiated withdrawal agreement. As a result of the deadlock, the UK has been granted an extension until 31 October 2019 following a Euopean Council meeting on 10 April. If a deal is not reached by this date, the legal default position is that the UK will exit the EU with no deal on this date.\n\nAt present the UK government is still pursuing a negotiated exit, and it is still possible that the UK can leave the EU with a deal, or leave without a deal. It is also possible that the UK will seek and be granted another extension. [It is also possible for the UK to unilaterally revoke its invocation of Article 50 and thereby cease the process of exiting the European Union.](https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2018-12/cp180191en.pdf)\n\nThis question asks: **Will the United Kingdom revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?**\n\nThis question resolves negatively if the United Kingdom has not revoked Article 50 on or before June 23 2020. It resolves positively in the event such revocation does take place. 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"2019-04-30T15:28:59.709000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\n\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\n\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?***\n\nDefinitions of success:\n \n* There is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n\n* This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n\n* At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2729, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761551149.768331, "end_time": 1763990865.72658, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761551149.768331, "end_time": 1763990865.72658, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3352473212362805 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290142.664759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290142.664759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8156627306634171, 0.1843372693365829 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\n\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\n\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois." }, { "id": 2714, "title": "Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pewdiepie-be-the-first-youtuber-to-have-100m-subscribers", "author_id": 107365, "author_username": "poubellegarbagepoubelle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-04-06T20:47:43.649710Z", "published_at": "2019-04-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.452051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-04-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-29T11:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-29T11:06:00Z", "open_time": "2019-04-06T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2714, "title": "Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?", "created_at": "2019-04-06T20:47:43.649710Z", "open_time": "2019-04-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-07T20:56:52.928588Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-07T20:56:52.928588Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-29T11:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-29T11:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-05-29T11:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Swedish YouTuber, comedian and gamer–commentator [PewDiePie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PewDiePie) and Indian record label [T-Series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-Series_(company)) are in a [neck-and-neck race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PewDiePie_vs_T-Series) to be the first YouTube channel to reach a 100 million subscriber count. \n\nAt the time of writing, PewDiePie has over 93M subscribers, compared to the 92.7M for T-Series. T-Series has temporarily overtaken PewDiePie on [numerous occasions in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PewDiePie_vs_T-Series).\n\n**Will Pewdiepie be the first YouTube channel to have 100 million subscribers on YouTube?**\n\nThis question resolves positive if Pewdiepie is reaches the 100M mark before T-Series. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to subscriber counts given on Socialblade, i.e. those here: [PewDiePie](https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/pewdiepie/realtime), [T-Series](https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/tseries/realtime). This question will close retroactively 7 days before the 100M mark has been reached by either of the two. This resolves ambiguous if a channel [on this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-subscribed_YouTube_channels#Most-subscribed_channels) that is not Pewdiepie or T-Series is the first to achieve 100M subscribers.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2714, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1556657308.517642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1556657308.517642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19827503966178375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5764123292787953, 0.0, 0.13633578835620466, 0.0, 2.3015764740122377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5545426186623912, 1.4936711913069023, 2.681628323252178, 0.0, 0.0482962316587873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6773758576936615, 0.09330886589633765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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in 2017?", "short_title": "More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?", "url_title": "More HIV/AIDS in 2037 than 2017?", "slug": "more-hivaids-in-2037-than-2017", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-04-06T06:39:36.351968Z", "published_at": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T09:04:09.421518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 180, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2713, "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", "created_at": "2019-04-06T06:39:36.351968Z", "open_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-14T14:53:06.215209Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-14T14:53:06.215209Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)) \n\nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\n\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\n\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \n\nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\n\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\n\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\n\n**This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760864638.743644, "end_time": 1764321274.122064, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 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"slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, 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"id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2712, "title": "Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?", "created_at": "2019-04-05T22:05:16.033121Z", "open_time": "2019-04-06T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-07T12:02:27.838266Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-07T12:02:27.838266Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-13T20:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-13T20:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-13T20:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-13T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-13T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has announced the [final live event for OpenAI five](https://openai.com/blog/openai-five-finals/) will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. OpenAI Five had previously played against human players at the International, and [lost the majority of the matches played](https://openai.com/blog/the-international-2018-results/). \n\nHave the past eight months been enough time for them to build a world champion level Dota2 AI?", "resolution_criteria": "***Will OpenAI win a majority of the matches played against OG at thee OpenAI Five Finals on April 13th?***\n\n___\n\n**Resolution**\n\n- The total number of matches will be the number of matches played live between OG and OpenAI Five.\n- For the purposes of question resolution OG will be considered the team that is fielded on April 13th - e.g. if for some reason a player is substituted onto the OG roster the team will still be OG.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1555131595.653192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1555131595.653192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6350857101073601 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1723420960276443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30199423264781133, 0.0, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23476788075709235, 0.2780067488129698, 0.18044206424386386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.009712334743922024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8113610949475989, 0.001873194738889857, 0.12089991006612175, 0.23487958194292177, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 1.830932063886251, 0.6259603825782152, 0.32768716652500174, 0.0, 0.38459879885134624, 1.365634696146309, 0.033136279379270196, 0.7707172028603675, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197, 2.3294619260388956, 0.0, 0.024088664307479968, 1.0603270953160813, 0.006447634808499139, 0.6217198515527766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18688629782113192, 0.0, 0.12593873474781375, 0.0, 0.029058259890870124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.09244601710264838, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25562848828361623 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.40707074246650926, "coverage": 0.9994950608455564, "baseline_score": 39.42448218572356, "spot_peer_score": -2.2600425308539185, "peer_archived_score": 0.40707074246650926, "baseline_archived_score": 39.42448218572356, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.2600425308539185 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1555086178.364521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1555086178.364521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5404521664514796, 0.4595478335485204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has announced the [final live event for OpenAI five](https://openai.com/blog/openai-five-finals/) will be a series of matches against OG, the reigning world champions. 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This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\n\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \n\nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\n\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n\n(*Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762681123.419209, "end_time": 1764560123.900108, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762681123.419209, "end_time": 1764560123.900108, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.655509600387407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.19044414436503487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003276927759296195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6930866404304145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8342288669485227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8670046748883992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36126950895310606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5937250231129199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1403696431136584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5457371853890383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03512361183892895, 0.0, 1.0419847911130733, 0.03582092265315734, 0.9220008283634575, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.08624868390658809, 0.014357330374357432, 0.43474022703789705, 0.006387971067579603, 0.050719975180017585, 1.1501356351409275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4719759918207209, 0.0, 2.7446664821345887, 0.3395739829546024, 0.0, 0.5356574680202668, 0.0, 0.1810538672405611, 0.0, 0.17669137990545516, 0.0, 0.5038611638190824, 1.032246701262579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11056117819897848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.130026636709796 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289649.606843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289649.606843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3284538065152365, 0.6715461934847635 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 376, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \n\nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\n\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \n\nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. 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It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \n\nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\n\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \n\nThe project aims to:\n\n- Momentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n\n- Produce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\n\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\n\n**By the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?**\n\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643649669.559483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643649669.559483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17490878918142108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5134267898869262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1907078093273424, 0.0, 0.3308387739601987, 0.4979978674910528, 0.5570499174883123, 2.8164956724802597, 0.4355586842496667, 0.8580665375299532, 1.6292235475193668, 0.443097358066749, 1.5459054123672558, 0.37082656277454273, 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in 2019?", "created_at": "2019-03-31T10:52:29.934438Z", "open_time": "2019-04-02T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-03T18:58:18.254465Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-03T18:58:18.254465Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-12T12:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-12T12:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-12T12:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Abdelaziz Bouteflika has been ruling Algeria since 1999, when the country was still in the throes of a civil war that only ended in 2002. This first election was [quite controversial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algerian_presidential_election,_1999), but adhered to nevertheless. \n\nThe 2004 election were a vast improvement, reflecting the Algerian people's desire to see Bouteflika's rule continued. In 2008 a constitutional amendment allowed Bouteflika to run for and win a third term, under protest and boycott from opposition parties. \n\nBouteflika suffered a debilitating stroke in 2013, but that didn't stop him from running for a 4th term in 2014. During that campaign and after his win, with far smaller participation numbers anbd under boycott from opposition parties, he was seen less and less in public.\n\nHe announced his candidacy for the 2019 election via press release, which [resulted in protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Algerian_protests), internet censorship, the retraction of his candidacy and an unspecified postponement of the election.\n\nNow the protesters seek Bouteflika to be deemed unfit, which would result in the President of the Senate and incidentally friend of Bouteflika, Abdelkader Bensalah, becoming Acting President for the 90 days until elections would be held.\n\nInterestingly enough, these demands [are supported by Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/world/africa/algeria-army-president-bouteflika.html), himself a powerful man in the state.\n\n**Will Algeria hold Presidential Elections in 2019?**\n\n*Resolves positive when such elections are held before 2020.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1557421909.109408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1557421909.109408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8346705046758647 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44961249434629236, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3876651255916492, 0.007981569988183952, 1.9247381753561497, 0.0, 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currently the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. However, Brexit, and especially the UK's withdrawing without a deal [is believed to potentially cause the UK economy to contract](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#Economy_and_business).\n\n**If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?**\n\nThis question resolves positive if the UK experiences two successive quarters of negative economic growth before (and excluding) Q1 2021, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP. Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press. This question resolves ambiguous if the UK does not withdraw from the EU without a withdrawal agreement in 2019.\n\n-----\n\nRelated question: [Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2601/will-the-united-kingdom-enter-a-recession-by-2021/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559408121.01273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559408121.01273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5234998490211282 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164960024539398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4080235318474639, 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resolve as **Yes** if a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, lands one or more living humans on the Moon at any time between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025.\n\nThe crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \n\nA positive resolution requires that the mission is *more than 50%* funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \n\nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735664257.464496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 822, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735664257.464496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 822, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": 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"author_username": "Jotto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-03-26T01:15:14.171391Z", "published_at": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.523696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, 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}, "question": { "id": 2670, "title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?", "created_at": "2019-03-26T01:15:14.171391Z", "open_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-29T23:09:01.595003Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-29T23:09:01.595003Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-02T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\n\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\n\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\n\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\n\n**Thus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?**\n\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n\n1. Already-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n\n2. Alternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)) There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\n\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\n\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\n\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577845287.245687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577845287.245687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\n\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)) 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\n\nQuestion: **Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?**\n\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\n\n<small>This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1616606175.959432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1616606175.959432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 307, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.043632958638900904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 26.056100447287278, 1.8340538089479148, 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"scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-09T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2667, "title": "Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?", "created_at": "2019-03-24T16:55:11.475625Z", "open_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-28T12:51:42.219453Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-28T12:51:42.219453Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-09T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-09T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [UK’s exit from the EU][] is a fluid and uncertain process, and has been [the subject of many questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-publish_time&search=Brexit) here at Metaculus.\n\nA quick recap:\n\n[The UK referendum’d to leave the EU][]. On 29 March 2017 [the UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union][], which governs withdrawal from the EU. [A withdrawal agreement was negotiated by November last year][]. It was endorsed by leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries. However, it has not been ratified by UK's parliament, as May's deal was defeated twice. The speaker of the House of Commons [ruled out third meaningful vote on same deal](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/18/brexit-john-bercow-rules-out-third-meaningful-vote-on-same-deal), making it necessary to postpone leaving to avoid a no-deal Brexit. \n\nCurrently, the UK's withdrawal has been postponed to April 12 if the UK doesn’t ratify the agreement by that date, and May 22 if they do.\n\n**Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on or before April 12 2019 23:00 UK time. It resolves negatively if Brexit is delayed, or if a deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents the UK's leaving before, or on April 12. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n\n\n[The UK referendum’d to leave the EU]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum\n[the UK invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union\n[A withdrawal agreement was negotiated by November last year]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement\n[UK’s exit from the EU]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554841842.667853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554841842.667853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1326784487796416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.459703015233474, 0.0, 0.19896543863262894, 0.0, 1.017533188079121, 0.0, 0.9520407294279846, 0.0, 1.7265851384199926, 2.72088908321775, 0.7418975704393198, 1.3338181103196667, 0.4290580319259576, 0.0, 1.753239822687695, 0.5459318673937564, 0.14201426396751243, 0.12456037073623208, 0.0, 0.1084661220178284, 0.09226383686069632, 0.2812468691577958, 0.4413814480197389, 0.28448739849030424, 0.03828968647248032, 0.00552739286729359, 0.0, 0.2679127975480279, 0.0, 0.6570110953587268, 0.00229979934405528, 0.2148564841462199, 0.43703257726458816, 0.08611494246862797, 0.009009167157985363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020785831404753825, 0.0016458186282963746, 0.0020334141991549823, 0.0, 0.03801266836034276, 0.013815567483789962, 0.05786921092248747, 0.12241848751140717, 0.07093136569583129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25505446692245143, 0.0011898388370891663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010266910336926773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24097197470284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007480512792552108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015704679598872134 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.310595563323425, "coverage": 0.9975918143886924, "baseline_score": 47.69832763187488, "spot_peer_score": 19.873623857363288, "peer_archived_score": 19.310595563323425, "baseline_archived_score": 47.69832763187488, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.873623857363288 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554805478.973354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554805478.973354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8842627453703695, 0.11573725462963046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 374, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
