Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5680
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5660", "results": [ { "id": 2666, "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?", "short_title": "Germany meets coal goals?", "url_title": "Germany meets coal goals?", "slug": "germany-meets-coal-goals", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-03-24T15:12:33.527715Z", "published_at": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T01:22:07.068416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2666, "title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?", "created_at": "2019-03-24T15:12:33.527715Z", "open_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-27T20:16:05.275000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-27T20:16:05.275000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-01-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment] (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n\n* Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022;\n* Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030;\n* The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years.\n\nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \n\nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\n\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).", "resolution_criteria": "**Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\n\n[Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment\n[especially considering some of Europe’s highest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany.]: https://sandbag.org.uk/2015/04/01/for-the-first-time-4-out-of-5-largest-eu-emitters-are-german-lignite-power-stations/\n\n-----\n\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763732950.390777, "end_time": 1765334214.138335, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763732950.390777, "end_time": 1765334214.138335, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.43350708340871974 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4820946812092099, 0.29779178426847513, 0.3802240356160521, 0.0, 0.8718857103548654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19054909718204532, 0.760622200710919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1783898312420707, 0.0, 0.6831610116549167, 0.0, 0.08280320485427824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5060660781940287, 0.0, 0.15607478299882238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6627042215534492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6073475340014041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221591575517525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1105208946958119, 0.0, 1.0510181867113806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03197929551797068, 0.42849820828454027, 2.1573102170286633, 0.37435024429827735, 0.20234353456626314, 0.0, 0.010222105112996144, 0.19899336368766163, 0.4038669540577423, 0.8084515281209238, 0.0, 0.41496789584662996, 1.6129193647536102, 0.526428608032142, 0.0, 0.003958218974807764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23145522895797951, 0.012236797335391226, 0.0025876796181943176, 0.0034545356851821305, 0.7344121464598972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511569754112731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9214965452122882, 0.020476985370305, 0.0, 0.02725558256565862, 0.0, 0.00025516032229147665, 0.02457921448930082, 0.0, 0.0348208577053695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006935976674286746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06926359685970308 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287565.822872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287565.822872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7510398181550624, 0.24896018184493762 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 272, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment] (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n\n* Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022;\n* Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030;\n* The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years.\n\nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \n\nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\n\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html)." }, { "id": 2665, "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-03-24T12:57:51.171144Z", "published_at": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T20:41:08.458607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2665, "title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", "created_at": "2019-03-24T12:57:51.171144Z", "open_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-29T21:09:57.921749Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-29T21:09:57.921749Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In [a recent press release][] the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \n\nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform][], which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\n\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\n\n**Will Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?**\n\nResolution conditions: \n\n* Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB][] (or a possible successor) will count towards that number\n* \"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31\n* If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous.\n\n[a recent press release]: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html\n[modular platform]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform\n[MEB]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763497794.601022, "end_time": 1764401404.025948, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763497794.601022, "end_time": 1764401404.025948, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5851918039228603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3968658204474105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"forecast_values": [ 0.3105634858456865, 0.6894365141543135 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2664, "title": "Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mark-latham-be-a-member-of-one-nation-on-the-1st-of-january-2021", "author_id": 100559, "author_username": "DanielFilan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-03-24T07:03:14.713814Z", "published_at": "2019-04-22T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.673386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-04-22T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T20:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T20:41:00Z", "open_time": "2019-04-22T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2664, "title": "Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?", "created_at": "2019-03-24T07:03:14.713814Z", "open_time": "2019-04-22T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-04-24T07:28:00.583535Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-04-24T07:28:00.583535Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T20:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T20:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-03T20:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Mark Latham](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Latham) is an Australian politician. In general, he is known for courting controversy, as can be seen by the ['Post-political life' section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Latham#Post-political_life) of his Wikipedia page. Until 2017, he was a member of the left-wing [Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party), and was the leader of the Parliamentary party between the 2nd of December 2003 and the 18th of January 2005, when he also resigned from Parliament. In May 2017, he joined the libertarian [Liberal Democrats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_(Australia)), only to leave in September 2018 to join the nationalist and right-wing populist party [One Nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauline_Hanson%27s_One_Nation). Then, on the 23rd of March 2019, he was [elected](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/mark-latham-wins-nsw-upper-house-seat/10923460) to the [upper house](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_Legislative_Council) (Legislative Council or LC) of the Australian state of New South Wales as a One Nation member. However, given his recent history of changing parties, it's reasonable to wonder whether he will do so again. In this question, we ask:\n\n**Will Mark Latham be a member of Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party on the 1st of January 2021?**\n\nIf on that date he is, as expected, still a member of the LC, then resolution will be based on the list of members on that body's [website](https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/members/pages/all-members.aspx?house=LC). The question resolves positively if his party name includes the string 'One Nation'. If this list is no longer published online by the LC, or if he is no longer a member of the LC, resolution is based on the reporting of credible Australian news sources (such as [ABC News](https://www.abc.net.au/news/), the [Sydney Morning Herald](https://www.smh.com.au/), or the [Australian](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/)). No reporting on a change of parties shall be interpreted to mean that he is still a member of One Nation. If he is deceased by that date, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1590973540.830718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1590973540.830718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.7017985011220749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.0, 0.036618791251766876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-19T07:33:56.512207Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-12T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-12T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-12T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-12T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-12T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Andrew Yang ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang)) is a democratic candidate for president known, among other things, for proposing a Universal Basic Income dubbed the \"Freedom Dividend\" and a focus on the impact of automation on jobs. \n\nHe's relatively young for a presidential candidate, with an entrepreneurial background and [an extensive policy platform](https://www.yang2020.com/policies/). Including everything from [single-payer healthcare](https://www.yang2020.com/policies/single-payer-healthcare/) to a [\"carbon fee and dividend\"](https://www.yang2020.com/policies/carbon-fee-dividend/) and [the legalization of marijuana](https://www.yang2020.com/policies/legalization-of-marijuana/).\n\nThe Washington Post wrote a piece showing evidence of his growing support: [*\"Andrew Yang is running for president. Haven’t heard of him? You will soon.\"*](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/14/andrew-yang-is-running-president-havent-heard-him-you-will-soon/)\n\nNate Silver has also been tweeting about it (*11 March 2019*): \n>[*\"Prediction markets think Andrew Yang has approximately the same chance of winning the Democratic nomination (~4%) as Warren, Klobuchar or Booker.\"*](https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1105181997792747520) \n\nAs can be seen [on PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination).\n\nBut can Yang, a complete outsider, really grab the nomination? We will see.\n\nThis resolves positive if Yang is nominated by the Democratic party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1581552487.980631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1581552487.980631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03306906382392188 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.386944672668577, 0.27380640594850764, 0.8385014028776852, 1.1960084589895459, 1.0992791106269917, 0.39411481691120437, 0.0011831189910108703, 0.03908264914618956, 0.00030515733062598494, 0.2949207048731059, 0.0, 0.604879143676525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0054296721899320674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007315327281470777, 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"type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2649, "title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be operational before 2031?", "created_at": "2019-03-14T12:24:33.911669Z", "open_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-19T23:36:58.225000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-19T23:36:58.225000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-03-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \n\nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\n\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \n\nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n\n1. Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1).\n2. Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030.\n\nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.", "resolution_criteria": "* Resolves *positive* if the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2). \n* Resolves *negative* if the SKA (including SKA1 & SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031.", "fine_print": "If credible sources do not make a clear mention to SKA2, Metaculus admins will assess whether current state of the project meets the original scope of SKA2. This will be based on the original goals for SKA2 as outlined in the [University of Oxford SKA page](https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/research/group/square-kilometre-array-ska) & the [official SKAO page](https://www.skao.int/en/science-users/118/ska-telescope-specifications):\n* A total coverage area of one square kilometre\n* A total of thousands of dish antennas and over a million low-frequency antennas\n* 4-10 x SKA1 sensitivity in the frequency range of 50 – 350 MHz\n* 10 x SKA1 sensitivity in the frequency range of 350 MHz – 15 GHz (including full frequency coverage)\n* 20 x SKA1 Field-of-View in the frequency range of 350 MHz – 1.5 GHz\n* Increased Field-of-View at frequencies > 1.5 GHz\n* Increase in the high frequency range of SKA-Mid to 25 GHz or higher\n* 20 x SKA1 maximum angular resolution\nNote that these goals serve as guidelines to assess whether the original scope has been met, rather than strict thresholds.", "post_id": 2649, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763102064.671642, "end_time": 1764154904.729276, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763102064.671642, "end_time": 1764154904.729276, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25699500969063255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5949610715209219, 0.01542797475028349, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12233152344487716, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04901388896195029, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.6949909141035722, 0.5505289351792777, 0.5089300594347316, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 1.9436507393661409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.21810592821876404, 0.4494085524427584, 0.0, 0.18113776984784913, 0.8661194873302935, 0.19892345174351658, 0.8871313346815881, 0.08915094763644647, 0.3511189354651645, 0.0, 0.23594684994526474, 0.9307200270794798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.063459122985457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10783452433772765, 0.4700096739574802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05630936737947011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287819.469569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287819.469569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9318204907107226, 0.06817950928927737 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \n\nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\n\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \n\nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n\n1. Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1).\n2. Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030.\n\nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built." }, { "id": 2647, "title": "Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-still-be-ceo-of-tesla-on-january-1-2020", "author_id": 109459, "author_username": "PhaedrusV", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-03-13T16:52:02.996339Z", "published_at": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.145567Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-04-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:15:00Z", "open_time": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2647, "title": "Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?", "created_at": "2019-03-13T16:52:02.996339Z", "open_time": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-18T10:24:19.956056Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-18T10:24:19.956056Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-01T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-02T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Will Elon Musk still be the CEO of Tesla at the end of the year? The SEC is taking close notice of his recent activities, and the narrative seems to be shifting away from him.\n\nhttps://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/teslas-elon-musk-could-be-suspended-as-ceo-in-latest-sec-scuffle.html\n\nResolves as \"Yes\" if Musk is still the active Chief Executive Officer of Tesla Motors, Inc (TSLA).\n\nResolves as \"No\" if he is suspended, 'promoted to a strategic advisory role', or fired, or has resigned, or any other functionally equivalent outcome.\n\nResolves as ambiguous if he still retains the title 'CEO' but a new position has been created where a different person assumes significant aspects of the role he currently has.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2647, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554174583.865302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554174583.865302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 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"Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", "created_at": "2019-03-09T18:49:56.523031Z", "open_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-28T03:06:34.008000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-28T03:06:34.008000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-13T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines,\nand semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \n\nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \n\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\n\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \n\nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)) \n\nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723918903.434755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.571 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723918903.434755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.571 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6618306900120879 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.739926877428543, 0.0, 0.0, 3.436636207744551e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005893917770031863, 0.00731614019786825, 0.0, 0.002732056639812554, 0.0, 0.000206485291802362, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 2.776167504639507e-05, 0.000776932022520202, 0.0, 0.0013003009633241844, 0.00048619414050712163, 0.28973262377326303, 0.02365623476404537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035903505139470957, 0.22286783229796778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16974280297134703, 0.0, 0.0, 7.00960298401018e-05, 0.0, 0.00014267536045330028, 0.39137232321131155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001251165725826544, 0.4721056565768311, 0.10647622271444199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6289902446176738, 0.0, 0.04576336950358033, 0.34437700681937544, 0.0, 0.5816276584301308, 0.03160931049519079, 0.35632608231854296, 0.002816479830193865, 0.0, 0.5215340724409478, 0.9378586362629175, 1.2440190953040902, 0.0, 0.42427559182692887, 1.6186899030196877, 1.0250236912841393, 0.13477928470689224, 0.7743100848304932, 0.0, 1.4500900908431318, 1.7633552506620465, 0.0, 0.11261541820522519, 0.10371108152587637, 0.3352531548688078, 0.1341950345544826, 0.0, 0.0056387795649152994, 0.08187062840304377, 0.6205587489533884, 0.12862632169315544, 0.192022775193569, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2467573409526465, 0.006860634361875799, 0.009412992971859104, 0.0, 0.0011006633029178813, 1.3757703718485499, 0.002254848526320542, 0.0, 1.7818237527172265, 0.0, 2.039910148374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021499456052715464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8883390032374778, 0.555357062813635 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 29.53847026247687, "coverage": 0.9330645041236166, "baseline_score": -7.768795010125118, "spot_peer_score": 50.213962357615465, "peer_archived_score": 29.53847026247687, "baseline_archived_score": -7.768795010125118, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.213962357615465 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723384284.012939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723384284.012939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2805047870673967, 0.7194952129326033 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 537, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines,\nand semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \n\nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \n\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\n\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \n\nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)) \n\nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation." }, { "id": 2898, "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "short_title": "From $5tr to $10tr market cap in under 1 year", "url_title": "From $5tr to $10tr market cap in under 1 year", "slug": "from-5tr-to-10tr-market-cap-in-under-1-year", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-27T21:08:46.070046Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.085206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2898, "title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "created_at": "2019-02-27T21:08:46.070046Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-28T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\n\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\n\n\n**Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?**\n\n___\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654625.738217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654625.738217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.284819261907616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1761834171421036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5309295362668649, 0.0, 1.3485212512406484, 0.31433791509644904, 0.4013503291190707, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6908522035655305, 0.009687016818592156, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0025648444428175, 1.8984914616764956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3778215797427243, 0.0, 1.5258182045315325, 0.45230674763442513, 0.0434223094642874, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289868.781145, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8312539809601196, 0.16874601903988037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2632, "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", "short_title": "Nigerian Population >400M by 2050", "url_title": "Nigerian Population >400M by 2050", "slug": "nigerian-population-400m-by-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-22T14:49:38.875374Z", "published_at": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T12:35:42.471554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2632, "title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", "created_at": "2019-02-22T14:49:38.875374Z", "open_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-25T11:48:34.620366Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-25T11:48:34.620366Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total population of Nigeria is at least 400 million people at any point before January 1, 2050, according to the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on January 1, 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.", "fine_print": "If in January 2050 Nigeria is no longer an independent country, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 2632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762002511.272221, "end_time": 1770592234.308897, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762002511.272221, "end_time": 1770592234.308897, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.32356447216736706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12895569209102875, 0.0, 0.3376811727541208, 0.0, 0.5233837983658496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.412741481724731, 0.14719688002899928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013844404637653691, 0.0, 0.4100336759285845, 0.7612844286890282, 0.0, 0.8907063143469982, 0.1923005540618076, 0.43175430771312556, 0.15537554365604425, 0.011186632143058381, 1.044689544797586, 0.11177617824897519, 0.0, 0.7642438794520877, 0.0, 0.7221510823378329, 0.0, 0.898162351916951, 0.5678761662977456, 0.01348060339581671, 1.5357615575849197, 0.00909999310833419, 0.26704035993686415, 0.8963870124108689, 0.2892251248350497, 1.1588915346536748, 0.5488802567618412, 0.22229902784307098, 0.22010626436898717, 0.09588802170775512, 1.1297314723814842, 0.008805273388987817, 0.3531210246878021, 0.03833005933264137, 0.0, 1.0741411841156303, 0.062729185553732, 0.06657814206785133, 0.0, 0.35486289076830996, 0.02964631524162419, 0.85614445842268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034884312213303956, 0.0, 0.8492567575829774, 0.0434767604723722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07063373954358897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04626956037701777, 0.0031816227343480045, 5.999105061480908e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001956595628661629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289473.769729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289473.769729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.816427852496907, 0.18357214750309303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor." }, { "id": 2631, "title": "Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-roll-out-the-fully-autonomous-autopilot-feature-before-2021", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-21T09:25:30.226657Z", "published_at": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.941483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-23T09:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-23T09:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T17:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T17:21:00Z", "open_time": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2631, "title": "Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?", "created_at": "2019-02-21T09:25:30.226657Z", "open_time": "2019-03-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-17T17:25:02.200254Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-17T17:25:02.200254Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T17:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-04T17:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-04T17:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-23T09:04:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-23T09:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In [a recent interview](https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast) the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, [stated that Tesla would be able to roll out a fully autonomous autopilot (software)](https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-full-self-driving-2019-2020-promise/) for their fleet by the end of 2020 that would enable a driver to fall asleep behind the wheel and wake up in the parking lot of their destination. “I think we will be ‘feature-complete’ on full self-driving this year (2019), meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year,” Musk said. He caveats that doesn't mean the autopilot will *always* work, instead claiming Tesla will enter the “march of nines”, increasing certainty incrementally.\n\nThat being said he has little influence on the regulators’ confidence, certainty, and conservatism, which can vary a lot between jurisdictions.\n\nCurrently, Tesla's automated driving features [is currently classified as a level 2 on the a five level scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Tesla_Autopilot\n) according to the [Society of Automotive Engineers]((https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_International))' (SAE International) five levels of vehicle automation.\n\n**By the end of 2020, will Tesla roll out autopilot features that are classified by SAE International as level 4 or 5 on their 2016 five point scale?**\n\nResolves positive when: Autopilot of described [SAE level 4 or 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Levels_of_driving_automation), as defined by [SAE international](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAE_International)'s 2016 classification, is rolled out on at least county level anywhere (may not be the US).\n\n- SAE level 4 is characterized as *(\"mind off\"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, and no driver attention is ever required for safety, e.g. the driver may safely go to sleep or leave the driver's seat. Self-driving is supported only in limited spatial areas (geofenced) or under special circumstances, like traffic jams. Outside of these areas or circumstances, the vehicle must be able to safely abort the trip, e.g. park the car, if the driver does not retake control.*\n\n- SAE level 5 is defined as *Level 5 (\"steering wheel optional\"): No human intervention is required at all. An example would be a robotic taxi.*\n\nResolves positive if any autopilot system, or \"feature\" released by Tesla before the end of 2020 is is judged by experts and/or common consensus to meet SAE's 2016 classification as level 4 or above. Note that this judgement may occur after 2020, but must involve an autopilot system or version released before the end of 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2631, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577072055.144237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577072055.144237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.22490011176213048 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0045288370715384, 0.3425325318115609, 1.0, 0.00847113657844854, 0.8831586681656652, 0.009117511628973141, 0.7788367165715026, 0.0027828968472010237, 0.1531815733413592, 0.9374202868065966, 0.9312243672243911, 0.6012791975857117, 0.021211131115270083, 2.504505438750744, 0.029324161925426508, 0.013020575534381422, 0.10337132570984456, 0.4613246361768938, 0.930672656550751, 0.4116900854435772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.609888915110098, 0.5276712314881308, 1.0406275663310487, 0.0, 0.045772358433443565, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0228924625534874, 0.6759292355782701, 0.001711392035097955, 0.22225054100268443, 0.15897617112631043, 1.0691253500214084, 0.04308484008190615, 0.0, 0.5041614646771375, 0.00030137657078466016, 0.0008696619454591392, 0.0, 0.7298060102915309, 0.0, 0.02589631589784238, 0.038028185535288764, 0.0, 0.1820103702419603, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0474970423526577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025340789343860424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0694531813856665, 0.0, 0.000887779654608402, 0.0, 0.00770178289475254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0825407405905984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027645787271039366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0735953354907352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18095960802640193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3261049214386928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1969910231585936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.856755720094203, "coverage": 0.9997918755568238, "baseline_score": 63.62761234012551, "spot_peer_score": 61.499368665208316, "peer_archived_score": 23.856755720094203, "baseline_archived_score": 63.62761234012551, "spot_peer_archived_score": 61.499368665208316 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1576780464.88289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1576780464.88289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8685885593787771, 0.13141144062122287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 247, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2624, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q2-us-homicides-will-decline", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.812158Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-21T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-21T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2624, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-27T03:52:46.112822Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-27T03:52:46.112822Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-05-21T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-21T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-21T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have done the internet a solid by making [public probabilistic predictions]((https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit)). For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. \nWe suggest you start with the first question in the series, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/). \n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n> The decline in crime rates in the US since the 1990s has been incredibly pronounced. Between 1993 and 2017, violent crime fell by [49 percent, according to data from the FBI](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/03/5-facts-about-crime-in-the-u-s/). (If you instead poll Americans on whether they were victims of a crime, which sometimes gets different results than looking at arrest rates, violent crime looks to have fallen by 73 percent.) Violent crime rates declined almost every individual year, except 2004-2006 and 2014-2016. We don’t know all of the causes of the fall in crime ([lead poisoning](https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/) likely has something to do with it), but I expect the trend to continue. —KP\n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **80%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* if the FBI's annual [Crime in the United States report](https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/ucr/publications#Crime-in%20the%20U.S.) indicates that the number of homicides declined in 2019 relative to 2018**\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ1. [The United Kingdom will leave the European Union](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/)\n\nQ3. [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2629/future-perfect-2019-series-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018/)\n\nQ4. [More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/)\n\nQ5. [No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2627/future-perfect-2019-series-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019/)\n\nQ6. [Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2628/future-perfect-2019-series-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain/)\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2508/how-many-homicides-will-there-be-in-london-in-2019/)\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2624, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561921477.825198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561921477.825198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.655795620718338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8528103088817056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6610116505191509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3181333376394761, 0.2964170805706633, 0.2775021963486394, 0.0, 0.38912807243796843, 2.3179475784656303, 0.40880911918637236, 1.1339235187196715, 0.058909031357943696, 0.17192566867158657, 0.5437199369604369, 1.1670251373290315, 0.33044585391479453, 0.0, 0.002932907971702584, 3.4954661439997508, 0.01958911193224546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049079267213590926, 1.3825491381910229, 0.0006006204798844153, 0.054167126145610874, 0.0, 0.5914743248163015, 1.0091437850379728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35410718970192434, 0.0, 0.010161794999997649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.138607890209693 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.5382787918901353, "coverage": 0.99950607445036, "baseline_score": 41.34266786418618, "spot_peer_score": 5.326290515390557, "peer_archived_score": -2.5382787918901353, "baseline_archived_score": 41.34266786418618, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.326290515390557 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561880438.563837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561880438.563837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43002234962093633, 0.5699776503790637 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2625, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union-in-2019", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.810656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-15T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-15T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T21:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T21:09:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2625, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-26T21:13:16.025363Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-26T21:13:16.025363Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T21:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T21:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T21:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-15T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-15T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have, like many effective altruists before them, made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. [Their set of 2019 forecasts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit) is high-profile modeling of excellent epistemic norms, and we at Metaculus of course support their endeavor. Now, if we can just encourage the other media outlets to follow suit, \"the discourse\" will be saved.\n\nWith *Future Perfect*'s blessing, we've taken a subset of their 2019 predictions and tweaked them, minimally, for Metaculus user consumption. In some cases we've also linked to any relevant existing Metaculus questions.\n\nWith your help, we can make 2019 *the most shrewdly predicted year ever*.\n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n\n> The things that would have to happen for the UK to backtrack on Brexit before its [planned departure from the EU on March 29](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887) seem, on their own, quite unlikely to me, and less likely when put together. Option 1 is that Theresa May calls a new referendum ([*Updated PredictIt price: 8 cents*](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5049/Will-the-UK-announce-another-Brexit-referendum-by-Mar-31,-2019)) and then “Remain” wins, which [polling suggests](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/06/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum---poll.html) is possible, though the margins are close. Option 2 is that the Conservatives’ Democratic Unionist Party partners break from the coalition, forcing a new election (*Updated PredictIt Price: 4 cents*), Jeremy Corbyn and Labour win ([it’s tight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election)) and they either cancel Brexit unilaterally or call a new referendum. Corbyn publicly pretended to support Remain during the referendum, but I think it’s [pretty obvious he wants to leave the EU](https://www.businessinsider.com/r-a-renegotiated-brexit-would-go-ahead-under-labour-government-corbyn-2018-12), and in any case, he’ll never go that far out on a limb to prevent Brexit from happening. —DM\n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **80%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* if**\n\n1. **The UK leaves with an withdrawal agreement in 2019 with a transitional period (during which time the UK and EU continues to operate under Single Market rules) ending in or before 2025.**\n2. **The UK leaves without a withdrawal agreement in 2019 (i.e. a \"no-deal\" Brexit occurs)**\n\n*(clarification, March 2, 2019) positive resolution need not require ratification of the terms of UK's exit, and therefore a \"no-deal\" counts toward a positive resolution. Moreover, the UK leaving with a withdrawal agreement also counts toward a positive resolution, provided the transitional period ends by the end of 2025.*\n\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ2. [US homicides will decline](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2624/future-perfect-2019-series-us-homicides-will-decline/)\n\nQ3. [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2629/future-perfect-2019-series-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018/)\n\nQ4. [More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/)\n\nQ5. [No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2627/future-perfect-2019-series-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019/)\n\nQ6. [Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2628/future-perfect-2019-series-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain/)\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[Will the UK actually leave the EU?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1301/will-the-uk-actually-leave-the-eu/)\n\n[Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/)\n\n[The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/)\n\n[Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/436/brexit-negotiations-completed-by-march-2019/)\n\n[Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1336/will-there-be-a-no-deal-brexit/) \n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2625, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563163079.989504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563163079.989504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5487348960190952 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.051950134073401044, 0.3179484295512574, 0.003817591921680922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03458914863692878, 0.1996119823424797, 0.4080076102840119, 0.0, 0.015240947639255114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015604433143409473, 0.03935582276844598, 0.30319040909162587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0975331332886056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04757913200217416, 0.12270020130183701, 0.5621284239289707, 0.572769142863632, 0.0, 0.7454505815287595, 0.15255812206117797, 0.5348884615129286, 0.0, 0.4212734982697115, 0.0, 0.01879257929682862, 0.6006713910171415, 0.27292270046304373, 0.0, 0.002141215690394542, 0.14443474891135483, 1.8889289776589195, 0.05386240108101065, 0.17003643834545207, 0.07729858391098846, 0.33133187632759803, 1.2496523418204566, 1.1135315279972648, 0.5635480463673601, 0.0, 0.43312987794308166, 2.5882047002068864, 0.03110620805894169, 0.8497484017275839, 0.0, 0.0728603091741109, 1.113349526621823, 0.058253892576222516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001738130345806699, 0.530498157446942, 0.020162464652878007, 0.6919215027328136, 0.008907998510016989, 0.0, 1.0473508704475472, 0.0, 0.0001848674873002406, 0.22180226260400135, 0.0, 1.04387179347676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011107494291638176, 0.09793818104332117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18927969359599078, 0.0, 0.3884126246109267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08537589410478713 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.40153817495107, "coverage": 0.9995630941697891, "baseline_score": -29.860994589839162, "spot_peer_score": 82.95082167413337, "peer_archived_score": 34.40153817495107, "baseline_archived_score": -29.860994589839162, "spot_peer_archived_score": 82.95082167413337 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563154702.941032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563154702.941032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.661596159372339, 0.3384038406276611 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 296, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2626, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.398488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2626, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-27T13:51:34.298091Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-27T13:51:34.298091Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have done the internet a solid by making [public probabilistic predictions]((https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit)). For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. \nWe suggest you start with the first question in the series, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/). \n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n\n> In 2016, [more than 9 billion animals were killed for food in the US](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/research/other-topics/trends-in-meat-production/?utm_sq=fybuv0h8j3&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Effect-Altruism&utm_content=Educate-Animals). Meat consumption per capita has stayed steady or arguably fallen, but as the population is increasing, overall meat consumption has been rising. Plant-based foods might change this someday, but for now the biggest factor that drives meat consumption is actually the economy — people [buy more meat when they’re doing better financially](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3045642/). I expect that if we see a strong economy for another year, more animals will be killed for food —KP. \n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **60%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* if the numbers as reported by the [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data) indicate that more animals were killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018**\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ1. [The United Kingdom will leave the European Union](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/)\n\nQ2. [US homicides will decline](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2624/future-perfect-2019-series-q2-us-homicides-will-decline/)\n\nQ3. [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2629/future-perfect-2019-series-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018/)\n\nQ5. [No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2627/future-perfect-2019-series-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019/)\n\nQ6. [Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2628/future-perfect-2019-series-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain/)\n\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/)\n\n[A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/395/a-restaurant-serving-cultured-meat-by-2021/)\n\n[A decrease in US meat production by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/)\n\n[Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1314/will-interest-in-veganism-decrease-prior-to-2020/)\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2626, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561926007.581743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561926007.581743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6988322767246669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.001739341494305002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3915107710373727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23453145474236464, 0.009647069809170485, 0.0, 0.8909311453733297, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5852699175780738, 0.01831563888873418, 0.6264754170807756, 0.07435821614779167, 0.07450598937243832, 2.1563544537228907, 2.1488458331093008, 0.010803727721577746, 0.02105978006882501, 0.0, 2.111177819818686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.635320988246489, 0.16714435327428795, 0.9646722566880958, 0.0869378767532077, 0.7984877820207508, 0.12595925847878922, 0.0, 1.310933662653031, 0.0, 0.05868412703184981, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4652003362835244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06887619374122553, 0.0, 0.09898891603332377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1917561489620048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17629478945635452 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.905798728993089, "coverage": 0.9994450750618618, "baseline_score": 53.64180601092167, "spot_peer_score": -5.570606376152982, "peer_archived_score": 7.905798728993089, "baseline_archived_score": 53.64180601092167, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.570606376152982 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561757644.719024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561757644.719024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2488179756641563, 0.7511820243358437 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2627, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q5-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.489933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-29T11:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-29T11:56:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2627, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-27T01:53:11.850642Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-27T01:53:11.850642Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-29T11:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-29T11:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-09-29T11:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have done the internet a solid by making [public probabilistic predictions]((https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit)). For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. \nWe suggest you start with the first question in the series, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/). \n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n\n> My standard here is [PredictWise](http://markets.predictwise.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election), a website that collates odds from bookies and prediction markets to estimate the likelihood that bettors — people putting down actual money predicting the 2020 primaries — assign to various candidates. This prediction will hold up if no Democrat’s odds of winning the nomination break 50 percent at any point during 2019.\n\n>Someone in the crowded Democratic field might truly break out and start trouncing everybody. In 2003, Howard Dean’s star rose so much that the Iowa Electronic Markets started giving him a [greater than 50 percent chance of winning the nomination](https://wesscholar.wesleyan.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1085&context=etd_hon_theses). But that seems unusual. [Bob Dole didn’t crack 50 percent](https://wesscholar.wesleyan.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1085&context=etd_hon_theses) until pretty late in the 1996 cycle, which he dominated to a far greater degree than I expect anyone to in 2020. [No Republican in 2007](https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm) came close —DM.\n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **60%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* if no Democratic candidate reaches 50% probability of receiving the nomination according to [PredictWise](http://markets.predictwise.com/politics/2020-us-presidential-election).**\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ1. [The United Kingdom will leave the European Union](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/)\n\nQ2. [US homicides will decline](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2624/future-perfect-2019-series-q2-us-homicides-will-decline/)\n\nQ3. [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2629/future-perfect-2019-series-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018/)\n\nQ4. [More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/)\n\nQ6. [Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2628/future-perfect-2019-series-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain/)\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1319/will-the-2020-democratic-nominee-be-either-kamala-harris-or-bernie-sanders/)\n\n[Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1699/will-elizabeth-warren-be-the-2020-democratic-party-nominee-for-president-of-the-united-states/)\n\n[Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1617/will-hillary-clinton-run-for-the-office-of-president-of-the-united-states-in-2020/)\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2627, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561926102.407117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561926102.407117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6751774223739567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003276927759296195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031287653351858666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.865362252409853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02531939678828675, 0.05427880555977149, 0.20572941495370636, 0.5342952467071159, 0.11056117819897848, 0.0, 0.0, 2.639163577774571, 0.15306396773838782, 1.3585514710786062, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.9427233081290531, 0.7173712346348572, 0.2488353872948497, 1.1043125250149997, 0.005492769954952124, 1.5375197735431352, 0.0, 0.7014864377785321, 0.11883978787560659, 0.012497185273215429, 2.3777462986532396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.0, 0.36126950895310606, 0.10189241930013437, 0.0, 0.06088089268499084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6509344506122218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28363083865853966 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -4.662229696650745, "coverage": 0.9994737787244604, "baseline_score": -48.432550239541804, "spot_peer_score": -1.380183088001213, "peer_archived_score": -4.662229696650745, "baseline_archived_score": -48.432550239541804, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.380183088001213 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561757457.762679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561757457.762679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41729332601658775, 0.5827066739834122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2628, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q6-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain-by-end-of-2019", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.964575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-07T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-07T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-04T21:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-04T21:18:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2628, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-27T05:42:01.065962Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-27T05:42:01.065962Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-04T21:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-04T21:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-04T21:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-07T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-07T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have done the internet a solid by making [public probabilistic predictions]((https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit)). For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. \nWe suggest you start with the first question in the series, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/). \n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n\n> The spread of plant-based meat alternatives was [one of the big stories of 2018](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/12/25/18127863/vegan-beyond-impossible-burger), and it’s a trend that looks like it’ll keep gaining momentum in 2019. The Impossible Burger, a plant-based burger famous for tasting more like slaughtered meat, is currently available only in restaurants, but the startup dramatically expanded production last year with a new [Oakland facility projected to eventually produce 1 million pounds of plant-based meat a month](https://sf.eater.com/2017/3/22/15029766/impossible-foods-oakland-expansion-kronnerburger). Last fall, it [announced](https://sf.eater.com/2018/11/8/18075864/impossible-burger-grocery-stores-retail-2019-announcement) that the burger would hit grocery stores in 2019. Nothing is a sure thing until it’s on the shelves, but I think the company is very likely to hit its target. —KP\n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **95%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* by credible media report or press release indicating that Impossible Burger meat is being sold in a national grocery chain as defined by [wikipedia's list of national chains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_supermarket_chains_in_the_United_States#National_chains) by the end of 2019**\n\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ1. [The United Kingdom will leave the European Union](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/)\n\nQ2. [US homicides will decline](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2624/future-perfect-2019-series-q2-us-homicides-will-decline/)\n\nQ3. [Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2629/future-perfect-2019-series-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018/)\n\nQ4. [More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/)\n\nQ5. [No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2627/future-perfect-2019-series-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019/)\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/)\n\n[A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/395/a-restaurant-serving-cultured-meat-by-2021/)\n\n[A decrease in US meat production by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/)\n\n[Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1314/will-interest-in-veganism-decrease-prior-to-2020/)\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1562470805.175635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1562470805.175635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.6908209694048922 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5807429518949406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01343969933406002, 0.7461714294025442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5251192710836816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14852180876162058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6424730077707153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2938612884163001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9509110360569235, 0.0361081371383881, 2.3023325725807062, 0.0, 0.15270723932077473, 0.050990988481196195, 0.03895484627502033, 2.784996307117162, 0.6245974753281573, 1.0161258345811306, 0.05828150874376415, 0.3267086937521542, 0.9629654342268383, 0.0, 0.30951138941869216, 0.22221488204980594, 1.0000833630955932, 1.5688184929430775, 0.008030243059253494, 0.498104626534821, 0.6769728293817069, 0.21100155234869863, 0.6060702206825844, 0.2775175051207561, 0.06186591064263661, 0.1456741875454331, 0.0185148788500146, 0.16619181888604462, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.0007874347717174179, 0.07091040125726912, 0.41936322302480206, 0.0, 0.0805967485058752, 0.04450316556122292, 0.6456881655083773 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1562470805.212545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1562470805.212545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4175765883985485, 0.5824234116014515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2629, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "future-perfect-2019-series-q3-average-world-temperatures-will-increase-relative-to-2018", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "published_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.128282Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-03T23:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-03T23:06:00Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2959, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2019 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2019-07-16T05:01:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.374457Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:43.463491Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2629, "title": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018", "created_at": "2019-02-19T03:55:15.639920Z", "open_time": "2019-02-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-27T05:42:33.186181Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-27T05:42:33.186181Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-03T23:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-03T23:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-03T23:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) and [Kelsey Piper](https://twitter.com/KelseyTuoc) of Vox's *Future Perfect* have done the internet a solid by making [public probabilistic predictions]((https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit)). For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. \nWe suggest you start with the first question in the series, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/). \n\nFrom [Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/15/18182069/2019-predictions-forecast-democratic-nominee-brexit), which originally ran 1.15.19:\n\n> My intuitions about questions like these are often surprisingly off. I intuitively consider the question, Is this trending upward or downward? But that’s far from the only thing that matters when predicting whether this year’s temperatures will be higher than last year’s. It’s also important to have a sense of how noisy the trend is. I looked at [this data from NASA](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt) to see how I would have done making this prediction every year from 2002 to the present. I’d have been right 10 times and wrong six times.\n\n> My understanding is that if you have a clear understanding of El Niño and La Niña, and how they affect global temperature patterns, you can do better than that — but I don’t and I can’t. I give it a 60 percent chance that this year will be warmer than 2018. I’m much more confident that it’ll be among the five warmest years on record — all of the [past few years have been](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/29/world/climate-change-wmo-2018-report-wxc/index.html) —KP. \n\n*Future Perfect's prediction: **60%***\n\n**The question resolves *positive* if the average world temperature change according to NASA shows an increase in 2019 relative to 2018**\n\n------\n\n<small>\n\nVisit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:\n\nQ1. [The United Kingdom will leave the European Union](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2625/future-perfect-2019-series-q1-the-united-kingdom-will-leave-the-european-union/)\n\nQ2. [US homicides will decline](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2624/future-perfect-2019-series-q2-us-homicides-will-decline/)\n\nQ4. [More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/)\n\nQ5. [No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2627/future-perfect-2019-series-no-democratic-presidential-candidate-will-become-a-clear-frontrunner-in-the-political-prediction-markets-at-any-point-in-2019/)\n\nQ6. [Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2628/future-perfect-2019-series-impossible-burger-meat-will-be-sold-in-at-least-one-national-grocery-chain/)\n\n<br />\nRelated Non-Series Questions:\n\n[What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/)\n\n[What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/)\n\n[Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1455/will-2019-be-the-warmest-year-on-record/)\n\n[Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n[Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/)\n\n[Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/)\n\n[Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/)\n\n[How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1540/how-much-less-global-warming-if-the-us-resumes-participation-in-the-paris-agreement/)\n\n[How much global warming by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/)\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561935959.387595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561935959.387595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7045533375732594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07370291962268603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5066828489144001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06826140917396885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 0.0, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2616, "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", "created_at": "2019-02-10T00:11:55.165340Z", "open_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-02-16T13:56:11.177333Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-02-16T13:56:11.177333Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T16:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-02T16:22:01.747645Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\n\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\n\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\n\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\n\n*** Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? ***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before January 1, 2025, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10, 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency.\n\nThe list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\n\nNote that this question *does not* apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10, 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also *does not* apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\n\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. 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