Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5720
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However, the process has become mired in difficulty and embattled Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May looks set to lose a key vote on her Brexit deal within days.\n\nUK opposition Parliament members have been told to prepare for a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May's government, as they see no way forward for her Brexit deal, according to a [Guardian report on 12 January 2019](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/12/labour-set-to-trigger-vote-to-topple-theresa-may-government?CMP=twt_gu&__twitter_impression=true).\n\n**This question asks: Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 1 January 2020?**\n\nThis question will resolve positive if, at some point no later than 23:59 GMT on 31 December 2019, the United Kingdom has a Prime Minister who is not a member of the Conservative Party.\n\nIt will resolve negative if on 1 January 2020 the UK's Prime Minister is a member of the Conservative Party, and if between now and then the UK has not had a Prime Minister who isn't.\n\nIt will resolve ambiguous in other cases.\n\nNotes on the resolution conditions: for positive resolution the PM needn't be Jeremy Corbyn, nor need it be a member of the Labour Party. The question will even resolve positive if Theresa May remains in power but leaves the Conservative Party. For negative resolution the PM needn't still be Theresa May, and there can be PM-less gaps if e.g. there is a general election between now and 1 January 2020.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559333216.895977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559333216.895977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3720798121924767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10456300934138207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6451884330551609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5692224931552761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1317804294337384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2968673163769495, 0.0, 0.0030346089126182594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9533416188326039, 0.060389336729971065, 0.9086605959808257, 0.002724384394276746, 0.0, 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"slug": "will-carnegie-mellon-be-the-top-university-accepted-to-neurips-2019", "author_id": 100559, "author_username": "DanielFilan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-12T06:16:18.387307Z", "published_at": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.378818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-05-18T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-18T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-18T22:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-18T22:31:00Z", "open_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2535, "title": "Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?", "created_at": "2019-01-12T06:16:18.387307Z", "open_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-16T05:10:45.565181Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-16T05:10:45.565181Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-09-18T22:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-09-18T22:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-09-18T22:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-18T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-18T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[NeurIPS](nips.cc) is widely regarded as the leading conference in machine learning. Held every year, it attracts large numbers of attendees, causing tickets to sell out within [twelve minutes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamfalcon/2018/09/05/the-new-burning-man-the-ai-conference-that-sold-out-in-12-minutes/#18f1da7d7a96) last year. Around the world, ML researchers furiously scramble to prepare papers in time to submit, as NeurIPS is also regarded as the most prestigious publication venue in ML.\n\nEach year, once the list of accepted papers is released, people invariably calculate which institutions and authors have contributed the most papers, or the most first authorships. One relatively easy-to-check stat is for each institution, how many accepted papers have an author affiliated with that institution. In [2017](https://medium.com/machine-learning-in-practice/nips-accepted-papers-stats-26f124843aa0) (when the conference was called NIPS) and [2018](https://twitter.com/ink__pad/status/1039352666999214082), the top institution was Google Research, by a large margin. However, the university rankings are somewhat more competitive: in 2017, Carnegie Mellon (CMU) was at the top, while in 2018, MIT took the lead. CMU also does well at the other leading ML conference, ICML, where it took top or equal top spot among universities in both [2017](https://medium.com/@karpathy/icml-accepted-papers-institution-stats-bad8d2943f5d) and [2018](https://medium.com/connected/icml-accepted-papers-stats-2018-1f9c0a9a6eaf).\n\nIn this question, we ask:\n\n**Will CMU be the university with the largest number of papers accepted to NeurIPS 2019 with at least one author affiliation?**\n\nNote that the question will resolve yes if CMU is tied for first place on this metric. Question closes when NeurIPS 2019 submissions are due, and resolves when a list of accepted papers with author and affiliation information is released. [N.B. these dates have not yet been publicly released, current close and resolve date is a best guess]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1558207310.035077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1558207310.035077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3743198397230748 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.026430157778456278, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4422821270294418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3560768674821237, 0.7146267975682756, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.8471347977268938, 0.7849584721272417, 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null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7261927864722617, 0.27380721352773824 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 2534, "title": "Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?", "short_title": "World War Three before 2050", "url_title": "World War Three before 2050", "slug": "world-war-three-before-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-12T01:11:29.134519Z", "published_at": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T01:24:40.011408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 270, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2934, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2534, "title": "Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?", "created_at": "2019-01-12T01:11:29.134519Z", "open_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-15T09:22:14.845000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-15T09:22:14.845000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\n\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2050, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1. There is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be \"involved\" if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n * Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n * Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2. At least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n\n*[see edit history in the fine print]*", "fine_print": "PPP will may be determined from the following sources, in order of precedence: \n>\n- IMF\n- World Bank\n- United Nations\n- CIA\n\n*[2022-03-24]: Edited to clarify that \"world GDP\" will be determined in PPP for condition 1 .*\n\n*[2021-11-24]: Edited to clarify the time constraints.*\n\n*(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)*", "post_id": 2534, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763864573.173208, "end_time": 1768996708.514583, "forecaster_count": 2836, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763864573.173208, "end_time": 1768996708.514583, "forecaster_count": 2836, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.27864753382601964 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0673680940295807, 1.103179535335233, 1.4930915446063922, 0.18511517586179005, 1.0116343601852336, 2.0492017751996414, 0.12436027433949928, 1.1232344703673776, 1.4179990122544923, 0.5014922871051316, 5.492869199338942, 0.9130083646242408, 5.1841982754008065, 1.635565203503907, 1.2050764848144213, 4.337880582224977, 2.8977291782427366, 3.3979235820129805, 2.000289922044427, 2.842464958517395, 6.009024175470554, 0.23325690289520232, 6.959965092054569, 1.4117682548076431, 0.0495824795010094, 4.071010199119602, 0.636479114183379, 0.7497559184630226, 0.18777369450318182, 0.0, 6.314280855088857, 0.052391776787663755, 8.769243566479648, 2.238494635965688, 0.8054650295555832, 4.0019404952410795, 0.13893549217699697, 0.012450364562241115, 0.41545398115096355, 0.16481507419899355, 3.534486508817375, 0.0005449441446264318, 0.02423201536502675, 0.7300337460159207, 0.0011149610160981341, 0.06377724314437772, 3.226964845656812e-05, 0.028219020436913888, 1.2357552936348677, 0.41065658380122205, 3.974051342027616, 0.3682069664334341, 0.03638100699851855, 0.9555826461705041, 0.3856720119016241, 0.6892307608650939, 0.5198274426054197, 0.048098263775651545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15017300274851353, 0.01888812925758604, 0.09327978834926222, 0.0009683053140744959, 6.442525023234164e-16, 0.6162595312562896, 0.17603066926655683, 0.0020931642958627555, 0.0006401967675593177, 0.8603877698565275, 0.2235074672886066, 0.003119624675923725, 1.9647951721542367e-15, 3.134257786034836e-05, 7.685391465794365e-08, 1.8048546247307353, 2.941657325822841e-12, 1.4661241061471766e-08, 0.004804334732298709, 4.214884128071368e-06, 7.228725379057933e-05, 9.571765222267609e-05, 2.2376949672396538e-08, 0.5730058701706121, 1.3990400578615706e-06, 1.1965552859261657e-06, 4.943948482402069e-05, 0.0011381994804196254, 0.5310923503391767, 1.7842989289479187e-05, 0.13414901541840396, 0.07151095818482295, 2.0736887001026937e-06, 4.6145653732532253e-07, 0.4704997404959266, 1.8081280288694614e-14, 0.0, 0.0016847506686088966, 4.214752505412409e-07, 2.058961643456394 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287054.742274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287054.742274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8811778259074147, 0.11882217409258529 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 163, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4567, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\n\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare." }, { "id": 2522, "title": "Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "slate-star-codex-survey-mini-series-are-ssris-self-rated-more-effective-for-depression-than-anxiety", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2019-01-09T20:59:44.938643Z", "published_at": "2019-01-11T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.305534Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-11T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-25T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-25T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-12T03:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-12T03:56:00Z", "open_time": "2019-01-11T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 2522, "title": "Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?", "created_at": "2019-01-09T20:59:44.938643Z", "open_time": "2019-01-11T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-12T10:23:52.721573Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-12T10:23:52.721573Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-12T03:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-12T03:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-12T03:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-25T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-25T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the [Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/04/preregistration-of-investigations-for-the-2019-ssc-survey/).*\n\n*Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a [similar survey](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/03/ssc-survey-results-2018/) of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.*\n\n*We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.* <br/><br/>\n \n**Question: Is there a difference in people’s efficacy ratings for SSRIs (SSRI Effectiveness, SSRI Overall) depending on whether the person was taking the SSRI for depression vs. for anxiety?**<br/><br/>\n\n***This question resolves positive if Scott concludes the question as indicating higher efficacy ratings for depression than for anxiety.***\n\n***NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post.***\n\n***Edit 1/16/19: We plan to let Scott's conclusion (whether explicitly positive, negative, or ambiguous) determine how we resolve the question***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548376842.568759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 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He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.*\n\n*We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.* <br/><br/>\n \n**Question: Are people less likely to support psychiatric commitment if they have been committed themselves?**<br/><br/>\n\n***NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post.***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2520, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548435080.008954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548435080.008954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6702707246724923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 2518, "title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?", "created_at": "2019-01-09T01:02:12.012774Z", "open_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-12T11:10:45.777583Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-12T11:10:45.777583Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:48:49.781650Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\n\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\n\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\n\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\n\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_(volcano)#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\n\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\n\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\n\n**This question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \n\nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. 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"2019-01-11T13:31:14.309782Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-10T22:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-10T22:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-10T22:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\n\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\n\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\n\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\n\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\n\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an event or series of events that begins between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2022 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, *with that classification being issued before January 1, 2023*, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609448740.064445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609448740.064445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.08211929970647756 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.6268089687537874, 0.05083743323094586, 2.4364747784098957, 1.8384112951303866, 2.801093363314686, 1.6137817282488232, 1.224248785601143, 0.9634827719157179, 0.4530414062125276, 3.5894979892646863, 0.49056878090435996, 0.0, 0.9341875156662262, 0.0, 1.578838310873618, 0.1801138855595485, 0.00887455477665474, 0.013332173701057371, 0.02055846432840325, 8.62882871469968e-05, 0.0, 0.8694424937598662, 0.14604571942550973, 0.12532243859306846, 0.05086402609404013, 0.0, 0.05022630295492274, 0.06075294105361631, 0.0, 0.0014520878217449066, 0.0005615367448597199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0894974825883495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009128693858032663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.533072005874016, "coverage": 0.999977359146826, "baseline_score": 87.31802096034643, "spot_peer_score": 1.190441049971422, "peer_archived_score": 6.533072005874016, "baseline_archived_score": 87.31802096034643, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.190441049971422 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609448740.274393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1609448740.274393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9830840616029576, 0.016915938397042397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 249, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\n\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\n\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\n\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\n\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\n\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity." }, { "id": 2511, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", "short_title": "Macron Wins Re-Election in France in 2022", "url_title": "Macron Wins 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"spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-10T21:48:14.253965Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \n\nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the *Front national* (now *Rassemblement national*) in a landslide.\n\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [*Mouvement des gilets jaunes*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\n\n*** Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?***\n\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the [2022 Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\n\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\n\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2511, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650754496.677123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 582, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650754496.677123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 582, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9096904163303438 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.9050373846564136e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 6.310893638600942e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3707915252821997e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007153634575502294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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As in the past, the ultimate decision falls to a partisan Attorney General appointed by Netanyahu himself, and he remains fairly popular among Israel's public.\n\nWill Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted (for any reason) before 30 June 2019?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1561866557.955057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1561866557.955057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0707603884021117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.835515002930627, 0.5862548629353959, 0.36299758779910213, 0.0, 1.624116316116715, 0.5670968727103285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0376477651787916, 1.303967283626384, 0.7567875495527383, 0.0, 0.2581697980490955, 0.0, 0.1384734408590286, 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Willard Mitt Romney (born March 12, 1947) is an American politician and businessman who is the junior United States Senator from Utah. He previously served as the 70th Governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007 and was the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 election. \n\nIn January 2019, just days before taking his seat in the Senate, Romney [published an excoriating op-ed regarding President Trump's leadership in the Washington Post.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mitt-romney-the-president-shapes-the-public-character-of-the-nation-trumps-character-falls-short/2019/01/01/37a3c8c2-0d1a-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ef02d6f4639e) This, coupled with Romney's previous claim that ['Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud'](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iefXdC794I) has caused [some speculation](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/02/romney-trump-2020-1077880) that he may challenge the incumbent President in the [Republican primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries) before the 2020 Presidential Election. On 03 January 2019, Romney [denied having any plans to challenge Trump](https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/02/politics/mitt-romney-cnntv/index.html) in the Republican primaries. \n\nAs of 03 January 2019, Donald Trump is the only declared candidate in those primaries. \n\n**This question asks: Before 3 February 2020, the date of the Iowa caucus, will Mitt Romney declare himself a candidate in the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election cycle, in the event that Donald Trump is also a candidate?**\n\nResolves positive if the above is true, resolves negative if Trump is a candidate and Romney does not before 3 February 2020 declare himself to be a candidate at any time that Trump is also a candidate, and resolves ambiguously if, before Romney makes a declaration of candidacy, Trump ceases to be candidate in the Republican primaries for any reason.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2347, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559331106.558505, 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"Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1866, "title": "Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?", "created_at": "2019-01-03T14:37:42.298662Z", "open_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-05T13:45:02.042276Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-05T13:45:02.042276Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-29T15:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-29T15:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-29T15:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.\n\nAs the closeness of the result suggests, this has been a very controversial affair within the UK. It has also proven difficult for UK and EU negotiators to agree on the terms of the exit, and the deal currently on the table (which EU officials say is not renegotiable) seems unlikely to be acceptable to the UK Parliament; but few want a no-deal exit, and it is widely (though not universally) felt that the referendum result makes remaining in the EU unacceptable.\n\nIn this difficult situation, one concern is that some options might be so unacceptable to some or all of the UK's population that they would lead to protests, violence or even insurrection. Metaculus already has [a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1658/will-there-be-rioting-in-the-uk-or-gibraltar-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-on-29-march-2019/) asking whether this will happen if Brexit goes ahead on schedule. This question, conversely, asks: _will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if Brexit is cancelled or delayed_?\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Brexit occurs on schedule on 29 March 2019. Otherwise, it resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that rioting has taken place anywhere in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar as a result of the delay or cancellation. For positive resolution, the rioting must occur within 30 days of 23:00 London time 29 March 2019 and must directly result in damages to property (cars, shops, windows, etc.) amounting to at least £100,000 (≈$126,900).\n\n(The resolution terms here are intended to be as closely parallel as possible to those of [the earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1658/will-there-be-rioting-in-the-uk-or-gibraltar-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-on-29-march-2019/).)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1866, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1547663336.95124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1547663336.95124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39457694996148046 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 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"close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1704, "title": "Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?", "created_at": "2019-01-02T20:10:24.019636Z", "open_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-05T16:00:13.795295Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-05T16:00:13.795295Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T19:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-30T19:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-30T19:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Malaysia Airlines Flight 370](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370) was a scheduled international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared on 8 March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia, to its destination, Beijing Capital International Airport in China. The disappearance of Flight 370 is considered one of the greatest aviation mysteries of all time. \n\nThe crew of the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft last communicated with air traffic control (ATC) around 38 minutes after takeoff when the flight was over the South China Sea. The aircraft was lost from ATC radar screens minutes later, but was tracked by military radar for another hour, deviating westwards from its planned flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and Andaman Sea. It left radar range 200 nautical miles (370 km) northwest of Penang Island in northwestern Malaysia.\n\nWith all 227 passengers and 12 crew aboard presumed dead, the disappearance of Flight 370 was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and the deadliest incident of Malaysia Airlines' history, until it was surpassed in both regards by Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 four months later. The combined loss caused significant financial problems for Malaysia Airlines, which was renationalised by the Malaysian government in December 2014. \n\nThe search for the missing airplane became the most costly in aviation history. Several pieces of marine debris confirmed to be from the aircraft washed ashore in the western Indian Ocean during 2015 and 2016, but after a three-year search across 120,000 square kilometres (46,000 sq mi) of ocean failed to locate the aircraft, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre heading the operation suspended their activities in January 2017. A second search launched in January 2018 by the private contractor Ocean Infinity also ended without success after six months. \n\n**This question asks: Before 1 January 2020, will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2020 credible media reports indicate that substantially all or a major part of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found and positively identified.\n\n'Major parts' shall include largely intact engines, wings, cockpit voice or data recorders, the fuselage, or a debris field containing a large number of fragments identified as parts of MH370.\n\nSmall plane parts not connected to a larger find (for example, like the flaperons found washed up on Reunion) shall not suffice; nor will pieces of luggage.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559321140.952873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Standard & Poor's 500,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) often abbreviated as the S&P 500, or just the S&P is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\n\nThe S&P 500 index components and their weightings are determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It differs from other U.S. stock market indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the NASDAQ Composite index, because of its diverse constituency and weighting methodology.\n\nIt is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market, and a bellwether for the U.S. economy. On 1 January 2019, [the index stood at 2,506.85 points.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/?guccounter=1)\n\n**When the NYSE closes on Dec 31 2019, will the S&P 500 index be higher than 2,506.85 points?**\n\nResolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 2,506.85 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 2,506.85 points.\n\nResolves ambiguously if the Index is discontinued or changed so substantially that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue with this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559329681.235117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559329681.235117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], 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"2019-03-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to Wikipedia on [Boeing CST-100 Starliner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner):\n> On September 16, 2014, NASA selected the CST-100, along with SpaceX's Dragon V2, for the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) program, with an award of $4.2 billion. As of October 2018, the spacecraft is expected to conduct an automated test mission to the ISS in March 2019, and to carry its first crew on a demonstration flight in August 2019.\n\nWe have already a question [\"Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?\".](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1355/attempted-crewed-spacex-flight-prior-to-2020/) But no such question for Boeing.\n\nTherefore this question asks:\n\n**Will the first crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner (test) launch take place prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?**\n\nShould the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. 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"2019-01-04T12:48:45.582262Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-01T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The identity of the author of the [anonymous NYT op-ed](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) published on Sept. 5, 2018, criticizing the Trump administration, is still unknown. Despite much speculation, all efforts at figuring out who wrote it have not been successful in 2018. The question is:\n\n_**Will the identity of the author be revealed in 2019?**_\n\nResolution is positive if a reliable media report indicates with very high probability the author of the editorial, which can be based either on journalistic research, confession of the author, administrative action (such as firing an individual due to the authoring of the editorial), or another action identifying the author with high degree of certainty. 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"scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On 31 December 2018, Democratic Senator [Elizabeth Warren](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren) (Massachusetts) [announced that she had formed an Exploratory Committee](https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/elizabeth-warren-exploratory-committee_us_5c298352e4b05c88b701a09f?ec_carp=8572577770700123232&guccounter=1) that allows her to start raising money for a potential 2020 run for the Presidency.\n\n**Will she be the 2020 [Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Democratic_Party_presidential_tickets#21st_century)**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the Democratic Party officially recognizes (via press release, or any public statement made by official spokespeople or leadership figures of the Democratic Party) that Elizabeth Warren is the Nominee of their party for the office of President of the United States in the 2020 election cycle.\n\nWarren need not be the Democratic Party Candidate on the date of the Presidential Election for this question to resolve positively; she merely needs to become the official Democratic Party Nominee at some point. 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}, "question": { "id": 1698, "title": "Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?", "created_at": "2018-12-31T07:08:28.318271Z", "open_time": "2019-01-02T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-04T17:31:51.550537Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-04T17:31:51.550537Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-20T15:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-20T15:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-20T15:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Student Starcraft AI Tournament](https://sscaitournament.com/) (SSCAIT) is a Starcraft bot competition held yearly since 2011. Together with AIIDE and CIG it is one of the three big AI tournaments for Starcraft 1. This year's tournament has started and you can watch it live [here](https://www.twitch.tv/sscait).\n\nThe favorite to win is Samsung's [SAIDA](https://github.com/TeamSAIDA/SAIDA) bot, which got 1st place at the last big AI tournament \"AIIDE 2018\". It defeated Facebook's bot CherryPi which got 2nd place ([results](http://www.cs.mun.ca/~dchurchill/starcraftaicomp/2018/); CherryPi isn't participating in this year's SSCAIT). Although SAIDA is a rule-based bot (written in C++) like the other top competitors, it also incorporates some [machine learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12627) to predict enemy units in the fog of war. \n\nTwo competitors and bot authors, [LetaBot](https://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/540151-starcraft-ai-tournament-sscai-predictions) and [Jay Scott](http://satirist.org/ai/starcraft/blog/archives/727-SSCAIT-2018-prospects.html), have made predictions on the winner of SSCAIT 2018. According to them, some challengers to look out for are the protoss bots Locutus, BananaBrain, PurpleWave and the terran bot Iron bot. SAIDA plays terran. Lest one think that zerg bots are weak, [last year's SSCAIT](https://liquipedia.net/starcraft/SSCAIT) had two zerg finalists.", "resolution_criteria": "Current standings are [here](https://sscaitournament.com/index.php?action=scoresCompetitive). SSCAIT has a Student division to award the best performing bot created by a student, and an open Mixed division.\n\nWe ask: **Will SAIDA win the Mixed division of SSCAIT 2018?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1698, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1547921010.412019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1547921010.412019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5016938033907888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.9108694972599481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6623783755767363, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.7737342927329731, 1.1258913873136258, 1.2798931147401666, 1.681442982635889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0541425161069093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7250996862965486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.4507266629885398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.755994900628006, "coverage": 0.9968969554596859, "baseline_score": -10.95517506171332, "spot_peer_score": 0.005222115333608559, "peer_archived_score": -1.755994900628006, "baseline_archived_score": -10.95517506171332, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.005222115333608559 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1547921010.432802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1547921010.432802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6703970148598861, 0.3296029851401139 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Student Starcraft AI Tournament](https://sscaitournament.com/) (SSCAIT) is a Starcraft bot competition held yearly since 2011. Together with AIIDE and CIG it is one of the three big AI tournaments for Starcraft 1. This year's tournament has started and you can watch it live [here](https://www.twitch.tv/sscait).\n\nThe favorite to win is Samsung's [SAIDA](https://github.com/TeamSAIDA/SAIDA) bot, which got 1st place at the last big AI tournament \"AIIDE 2018\". It defeated Facebook's bot CherryPi which got 2nd place ([results](http://www.cs.mun.ca/~dchurchill/starcraftaicomp/2018/); CherryPi isn't participating in this year's SSCAIT). Although SAIDA is a rule-based bot (written in C++) like the other top competitors, it also incorporates some [machine learning](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12627) to predict enemy units in the fog of war. \n\nTwo competitors and bot authors, [LetaBot](https://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/540151-starcraft-ai-tournament-sscai-predictions) and [Jay Scott](http://satirist.org/ai/starcraft/blog/archives/727-SSCAIT-2018-prospects.html), have made predictions on the winner of SSCAIT 2018. According to them, some challengers to look out for are the protoss bots Locutus, BananaBrain, PurpleWave and the terran bot Iron bot. SAIDA plays terran. Lest one think that zerg bots are weak, [last year's SSCAIT](https://liquipedia.net/starcraft/SSCAIT) had two zerg finalists." }, { "id": 1690, "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-30T11:05:49.664857Z", "published_at": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.347356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T12:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T12:07:00Z", "open_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 144, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1690, "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?", "created_at": "2018-12-30T11:05:49.664857Z", "open_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-02T04:53:19.264570Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-02T04:53:19.264570Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T12:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T12:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-01T12:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Kim Jong-un, born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\n\n\n*Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?*\n\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559327137.854007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559327137.854007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9309540731394518 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003794095329549017, 0.0, 0.0001962937325982438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019199860598531195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0786343402912026, 0.0004802993241387271, 0.0, 0.028047655684293727, 1.037545486305199, 0.0, 0.5999705508279638, 1.421158267722959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8923753458495484, 0.006737946999085467, 0.5035262134694418, 0.6078236232429081, 0.12021195897297565, 1.782719402604676, 0.0007434801602473479, 0.2173904138286884, 0.5726161277870804, 0.08500858169070746, 2.861238720995497, 3.1666522310460947, 2.1330236212525704, 1.4459075989698515, 4.939172245855659 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.7275036464441094, "coverage": 0.9998084849040078, "baseline_score": 91.94324038610522, "spot_peer_score": 2.659392873409704, "peer_archived_score": 3.7275036464441094, "baseline_archived_score": 91.94324038610522, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.659392873409704 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1557567751.883636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1557567751.883636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1501826308507107, 0.8498173691492893 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
