Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5740
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Trump is the president of the US as of today. [A closed question on whether Trump is president on Feb 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/466/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-us-in-2019/) will likely resolve positively, but will Trump keep his presidency for the end of his mandate? For this question, we will extend things even further, and ask whether he will complete a hypothetical second term.\n\n**This question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is the president of the United States up to the end of his second term if he is reelected or up to the end of the current term if he is not. Resolves negatively otherwise.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1689, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583850596.70173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 189, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583850596.70173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 189, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8800049651840666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11396200426349906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.145804519783573e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9644498430253265, 0.0005088724908670074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008765444407589231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.44720703315277e-05, 3.938301959103632e-05, 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"created_at": "2018-12-29T15:48:35.354360Z", "published_at": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.830935Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:46:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 173, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. \n\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\n\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\n\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by Freedom House, and as \"repressed\" in the Index of Economic Freedom.\n\nIn recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [annexed Crimea,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) a number ([1, ](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/07/how-russia-could-test-nato-warns-former-us-army-europe-commander/149530/)[2, ](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus/)[3, ](https://jamestown.org/program/belarus-receives-alarming-signals-from-both-east-and-west/)[4, ](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ready-putins-invasion-belarus-russian-forces-are-gathering-664225)[5](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/19/fears-grow-russian-military-drills-in-belarus-are-moscows-next-crimea.html)) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.\n\n**This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any *two* Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609456826.096846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], 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"open_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-01T18:10:08.722795Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-01T18:10:08.722795Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-02-06T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-02-06T19:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-02-06T19:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-05T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the US Constitution, impeachment and conviction are not the same things. To impeach is to bring charges against a high-office holder.\n\nThe House of Representatives can start the impeachment process with simple majority vote to bring charges against the president. In the impeachment trials The House of Representatives acts like a prosecutor. The Senate sits as a jury. Two-thirds of the Senators must find the sitting president guilty for him to be removed; per the US Constitution:\n\n> The Senate shall have the sole power to try all impeachments. When sitting for that purpose, they shall be on oath or affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two thirds of the members present.\n\nA [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/796/would-a-democratically-controlled-house-impeach-president-trump-before-the-2020-elections/) asks if Trump will be impeached *given* that the Democrats retake the house. This has now occured, so that question now asks whether Trump will be impeached.\n\nThis questions asks: *IF* Trump is impeached, will the Senate remove him from office?\n\nQuestion resolve positive if Trump is removed due to Senate vote after impeachment by the house. Resolves negative if Trump is acquitted by the Senate, or otherwise leaves office prior to the vote. Resolves ambiguous if Trump is not impeached by Jan 18, 2021. For maximal suspense, question will remain open until the beginning of the Senate vote, closing retroactively one hour prior to that first vote.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1581010271.835867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1581010271.835867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 154, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04516326208305912 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.673637935293785, 1.696419108224734, 1.7228790932420663, 0.6539572463688232, 1.0276388208813763, 0.42432879787615807, 0.016790141379031828, 0.5751254555782763, 0.024692898097079315, 0.3401968004368223, 0.30585424043642456, 0.20643579382569888, 0.16192450216921717, 0.0597246408391093, 0.2888025947772051, 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Mark Zuckerberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Zuckerberg) is the CEO, Chairman and co-founder of [Facebook, Inc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook), which has made him one of the [richest people in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2018).\n\n[As alluded to in the text of another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1613/will-facebooks-share-price-be-lower-in-3-months-than-it-is-today/), parts of 2018 have been rocky for Facebook.\n\nCEOs can willingly or unwillingly leave their positions for [all kinds](https://www.businessinsider.com/15-reasons-why-ceos-leave-their-office-2012-7?r=US&IR=T) of [reasons](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2017/12/14/the-10-biggest-ceo-departures-of-2017/#6cb6c96560ae), including [poor market performance](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jofi.12282), scandal, and retirement. According to one source, [the average CEO tenure was 5.9 years](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/poor-succession-planning-causes-high-ceo-turnover-at-u-s-firms) from 2003 to 2015. According to another, [CEO turnover in the last half of 2018 been at its highest levels since 2008](http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2018-november-ceo-report-147-ceos-out-ytd-24-percent).\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**At 12:00 AM GMT March 1st 2019, will Mark Zuckerberg be the CEO of Facebook, Inc.?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548931654.97499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548931654.97499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9508351814803413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\n\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\n\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\n\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n\n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\n\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\n\n**Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?**\n\n*This will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)) negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1593252023.486893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1593252023.486893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22795306865105622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1397904512822764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4151406185251412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5658811894559779, 1.8142389928370606, 0.0, 1.9236762988419815, 0.003928914836847643, 0.0, 1.000691724162107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12795492306753103, 0.4227361757973063, 1.4724695599153947, 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1682, "title": "Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?", "created_at": "2018-12-27T09:16:26.330756Z", "open_time": "2019-01-16T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-16T17:42:49.077464Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-16T17:42:49.077464Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-03T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-02-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX is going full steam ahead with [Big Falcon Rocket (BFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)).\n\nMusk thinks that the booster part (currently called \"Super Heavy\") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called \"Starship\" and before that \"Big Falcon Spaceship\" or \"BFS\").\n\nFor those losing track of Musk's repeated renaming of the project Wikipedia provides [up-to date section on BFR nomenclature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)#Nomenclature).\n\nAbout renaming BFR to Starship, [Musk's has said](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1064741356080222209?lang=en):\n\n> Technically, two parts: Starship is the spaceship/upper stage & Super Heavy is the rocket booster needed to escape Earth’s deep gravity well (not needed for other planets or moons)\n\nAll rockets capable of reaching Earth's orbit with useful payload are built with at least two stages. Sometimes more. This is due to [the rocket equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation). Dumping the dead weight of an empty first stage allows for more efficient use of energy. Super Heavy Starship (or BFR) is also built with two stages: the first stage is called \"Super Heavy\" and the second stage is called \"Starship\" (or BFS).\n\nAn interesting aspect of the Starship is that it will be able to fly without the Super Heavy. That will allow it to return from other planets and moons to the Earth. [It will also be capable of single stage to orbit launch from the Earth without any useful payload.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816) The capability is intended to be used for testing of entering planets atmospheres from super orbital velocities like Mars/Moon transfer velocities. According to Musk there are certain heating parameters that scale to the eighth power with regard to speed.\n\n[See Musk's explanation of how Starship will be tested.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sytrrdOPYzA&feature=youtu.be&t=19m10s)\n\n[In January 2019 an early test version of the Starship was assembled.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwmagBZX4AEbUN-.jpg:large)\n\n[Regarding first orbital prototype Musk was predicting](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1083575233423003648):\n> Should be done with first orbital prototype around June\n\n\nThe question asks: \n\n#### Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?\n\nThe question will resolve positively if we get information from SpaceX that any test version of Starship with or without a booster reached space before 1 January 2021. For purpose of this question reaching space will mean being at attitude of at least 80km. After reaching space, it could even explode without affecting how this question resolves. In case of failures before reaching space, several attempts are allowed.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if no test is attempted or Starship will not reach space as defined above.\n\n[Musk himself predicts](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1078180361346068480):\n> How about the chances that Starship reaches orbit in 2020?\n\n> Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture\n\nSimilar questions: \n\n* [Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1673/will-spacex-start-testing-a-starship-bfs-before-2020/)\n* [Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1551371007.450656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1551371007.450656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5558084672731983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5305354475802987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15748357304771182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03871359092917679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5708984753092851, 0.03846430030775341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3517594760147066, 0.0, 0.04701448451617251, 0.26862305140565873, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05265139568081303, 0.06549491799116114, 0.6325078840975601, 0.14385162219704886, 0.4185986787452138, 3.350311629978889, 1.4567518045998307, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9826876222447471, 0.0, 0.012080067640697419, 0.0, 0.6595493454573285, 0.28448906766018683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727653039641352, 0.0, 0.22310367527874267, 0.003399429418515302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01921436943183433, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13119983239354882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33566448758373646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1721577213751192 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.668831778631217, "coverage": 0.9996643775220159, "baseline_score": -24.61443464931048, "spot_peer_score": -0.2525697872180557, "peer_archived_score": 13.668831778631217, "baseline_archived_score": -24.61443464931048, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.2525697872180557 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1551309723.776688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1551309723.776688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6890976303128293, 0.31090236968717067 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1681, "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", "short_title": "R.R. Martin Completes A Song Of Ice And Fire?", "url_title": "R.R. Martin Completes A Song Of Ice And Fire?", "slug": "rr-martin-completes-a-song-of-ice-and-fire", "author_id": 103713, "author_username": "KrisMoore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-27T02:00:22.770360Z", "published_at": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.748391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T13:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 327, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1681, "title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?", "created_at": "2018-12-27T02:00:22.770360Z", "open_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-31T22:20:04.327000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-31T22:20:04.327000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T13:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*[warning: links may contain spoilers]*\n\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\n\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\n\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, *Winds of Winter*, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\n\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of *A Song Of Ice And Fire*?**", "resolution_criteria": "* I have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n\n* For a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to *[The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt)* or *[Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)*).\n\n * The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1681, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672573416.876629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672573416.876629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7741122475657524 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0387476536562406, 0.0, 1.065062758565712e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.654033803488516e-06, 6.664422084760889e-06, 0.0, 5.198910170567788e-06, 1.3113043232029123e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3109395169806777e-07, 2.8149776752849654e-07, 0.0, 0.0034359299091525587, 0.0, 0.0031692443552814387, 0.010172238460034459, 5.157776657957879e-07, 0.0, 0.005740015681389301, 0.0, 0.5702240916948145, 0.0007315384111072744, 0.0, 2.0337757366071305e-05, 0.0, 0.3474426838417749, 1.4304475612810158e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.22369963393459e-06, 0.014765122350185095, 2.7499834752158915e-05, 0.0, 0.0005797025056590221, 1.8801446652933427e-06, 0.08018036311415734, 0.0, 3.0573057219044455e-06, 9.873039527738801e-06, 6.787383486256616e-05, 5.909798391407585e-07, 0.0, 2.3711651425723012e-07, 0.0, 0.03160618398847677, 0.1863771742730002, 0.00023964617932464995, 3.4557303385297754e-05, 0.009798706242545906, 0.0001726140260528409, 0.045879256319360386, 0.006742744888665707, 0.0016769277336373476, 0.0, 0.005642084229261582, 0.8993547096861969, 0.0035869538275521678, 0.02676799373921953, 0.546675932470843, 0.12848774123542692, 1.741952217364965, 3.4945597556022947, 0.3696739679917658, 0.7789805223614982, 0.0, 2.5452218077375592, 0.057991046303094054, 0.31402765680080486, 0.6696094780326098, 0.0024541797511656565, 1.1922318251251125, 0.007245095190393112, 0.0815046547659857, 0.33459196450673456, 2.3440752586639992, 2.0845813756804095, 0.6434783220340132, 0.5261469130082477, 1.820662053660877, 1.2784621363216366, 0.8973856183092515, 1.4859261984340026, 0.5521398020385466, 0.06691740171912096, 0.17838948573387414, 3.4565090443870257, 0.5580989113571087, 0.5381084283721957, 0.25894817529556624, 1.038848403845759, 0.8519941529423769, 0.0033000276123294663, 0.9517575856984173, 0.12932260164306827, 0.44507662059383757 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672573416.912066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672573416.912066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2446952402565341, 0.7553047597434659 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 725, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*[warning: links may contain spoilers]*\n\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\n\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\n\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, *Winds of Winter*, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\n\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of *A Song Of Ice And Fire*?**" }, { "id": 1673, "title": "Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-start-testing-a-starship-bfs-before-2020", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-23T06:39:23.533371Z", "published_at": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.570129Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-05T22:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-05T22:41:00Z", "open_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32603, "name": "2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1673, "title": "Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?", "created_at": "2018-12-23T06:39:23.533371Z", "open_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-01-11T09:21:59.907737Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-11T09:21:59.907737Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-05T22:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-05T22:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-05T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-02-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX is going full steam ahead with [Big Falcon Rocket (BFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \n\nMusk thinks that the booster part (currently called \"Super Heavy\") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called \"Starship\" and before that Big Falcon Spaceship or BFS). \n\nFor those losing track of Musk's repeated renaming of the project [Wikipedia provides up-to date section on BFR nomenclature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)#Nomenclature).\n\nAbout renaming BFR to Starship, [Musk's has said](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1064741356080222209?lang=en):\n\n> Technically, two parts: Starship is the spaceship/upper stage & Super Heavy is the rocket booster needed to escape Earth’s deep gravity well (not needed for other planets or moons)\n\nAll rockets capable of reaching Earth's orbit with useful payload are built with at least two stages. Sometimes more. This is due to [Rocket Equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation). Dumping the dead weight of an empty first stage allows for more efficient use of energy. Super Heavy Starship (or BFR) is also built with two stages: the first stage is called \"Super Heavy\" and the second stage is called \"Starship\" (or BFS).\n\nAn interesting aspect of the Starship is that it will be able to fly without the Super Heavy. That will allow it to return from other planets and moons to the Earth. [It will also be capable of single stage to orbit launch from the Earth without any useful payload.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076613555091234816) The capability is intended to be used for testing of entering planets atmospheres from super orbital velocities like Mars/Moon transfer velocities. According to Musk there are certain heating parameters that scale to the eighth power with regard to speed.\n\n[See Musk's explanation of how Starship will be tested.](https://youtu.be/sytrrdOPYzA?t=19m10s)\n\n[Recently we got the first fan made photos of a test vehicle being assembled in Texas.](https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/1076553768760676353)\n\n[Musk confirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076608579652616192):\n> I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April\n\nPreviously the Starship was supposed to be built using composite materials, but [the current design is using stainless steel](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076595190658265088).\n\n> Stainless steel is correct, but different mixture of alloys & new architecture. Unlike Atlas, Starship is buckling stable on launchpad even when unpressurized.\n\n[Scott Manley has nice discussion of the new approach](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoegqRJKGE8).\n\n\n**Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?**\n\nThe question will resolve positively if we get information from SpaceX in the form of a video or a photo showing that any early test version of Starship/BFS (the second or upper stage) has been launched before 1 January 2020. Launched here just means that all legs must be unambiguously above the ground when the vehicle is still in its original shape. After that, it could even explode without affecting how this question resolves.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if no test is attempted or if the Starship will not manage to get off the ground in one piece before 2020. Several attempts are allowed.\n\nRelated question: [Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1550174590.851122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1550174590.851122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8241714833117563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5545426186623912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010755654095857752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-23T01:09:00.800272Z", "published_at": "2018-12-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.547821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:54:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1672, "title": "Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020?", "created_at": "2018-12-23T01:09:00.800272Z", "open_time": "2018-12-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-26T15:36:49.509741Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-26T15:36:49.509741Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-01T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The last terrorist attack in the United States to claim the lives of more than 25 victims [took place on June 12 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orlando_nightclub_shooting) when Omar Mateen, a 29-year-old security guard, killed 49 people and wounded 53 others in a terrorist attack inside Pulse, a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, United States. Orlando Police Department (OPD) officers shot and killed him after a three-hour standoff. \n\nIn a 9-1-1 call shortly after the shooting began, Mateen swore allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and said the U.S. killing of Abu Waheeb in Iraq the previous month \"triggered\" the shooting. He later told a negotiator he was \"out here right now\" because of the American-led interventions in Iraq and in Syria and that the negotiator should tell the United States to stop the bombing. \n\nIt was the deadliest terrorist attack in the U.S. since the September 11 attacks in 2001.\n\n**This question asks: before January 1 2020, will there be any single terrorist attack in the United States \ninvolving the deaths of at least 25 people, excluding those of the perpetrator(s) of the attack?**\n\nAn event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the Federal Government of the United States. Mass shootings or other criminal events that are not considered to be 'terrorist attacks' by Federal Government authorities do not count.\n\n'United States' means all [United States territory;](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_territory) any extent of region under the sovereign jurisdiction of the Federal Government of the United States, including all territorial waters, military bases, and all U.S. naval vessels.\n\nIn the event that victims die on after January 1 2020 but before February 1 2020 of injuries sustained in an event before January 1 2020, those deaths should be included.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548958417.116676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548958417.116676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 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"resolution_set_time": "2021-01-20T19:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Federal Reserve System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve) (also known as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics (particularly the panic of 1907) led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises. Over the years, events such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Great Recession during the 2000s have led to the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System.\n\nThe Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is the head of the Federal Reserve. The chair is chosen by the President of the United States from among the members of the Board of Governors; and serves for four-year-terms after appointment. A chair may be appointed for several consecutive terms. William Martin was the longest serving chair, holding the position from 1951 to 1970. \n\nAs stipulated by the Banking Act of 1935, the President of the United States appoints the seven members of the Board of Governors; they must then be confirmed by the Senate and serve fourteen year terms.\n\nThe nominees for chair and vice-chair may be chosen by the President from among the sitting Governors for four-year terms; these appointments are also subject to Senate confirmation. The Senate Committee responsible for vetting a Federal Reserve Chair nominee is the Senate Committee on Banking. \n\nJerome Hayden \"Jay\" Powell is the 16th and current Chair of the Federal Reserve, serving in that office since February 2018. He was nominated to the Fed Chair position by President Donald Trump, and confirmed by the United States Senate.\n\nSince Powell took the position of Fed Chair, the performance of major US equity indicies has been disappointing. [President Trump has indicated that he is unhappy with the Fed's decision to raise interest rates several times this year.](https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/trump-trespasses-on-fed-independence-blasting-powell-rate-hikes#gs.ahRRz9g) This has [raised questions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-22/trump-said-to-discuss-firing-fed-s-powell-after-latest-rate-hike) over whether Trump will try to replace Powell with a more accomodative Fed Chair.\n\nAccording to Bloomberg, [\"any attempt by Trump to push out Powell would have potentially devastating ripple effects across financial markets, undermining investors’ confidence in the central bank’s ability to shepherd the economy without political interference. It would come as markets have plummeted in recent weeks, with the major stock indexes already down sharply for the year.\"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-22/trump-said-to-discuss-firing-fed-s-powell-after-latest-rate-hike)\n\n[Section 10.2 of the Federal Reserve Act](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm) provides that upon the expiration of the term of any appointive member of the Federal Reserve Board in office on the date of enactment of the Banking Act of 1935, the President shall fix the term of the successor to such member at not to exceed fourteen years, as designated by the President at the time of nomination, but in such manner as to provide for the expiration of the term of not more than one member in any two-year period, and thereafter each member shall hold office for a term of fourteen years from the expiration of the term of his predecessor, *unless sooner removed for cause by the President.*\n\nSo far, no Fed Chairman has been removed by a President.\n\n[Humphrey's Executor v. United States, 295 U.S. 602 (1935)](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/295/602/) outlines the President's authority to remove appointed officials. Given that there is no precedent for a President attempting to fire a Fed Chairman, it is not entirely clear whether the President has the absolute authority to do so. In *Humphrey's Executor*, the Supreme Court distinguished between executive officers and quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial officers. The latter may be removed only with procedures consistent with statutory conditions enacted by Congress; the former serve at the pleasure of the President and may be removed at his discretion. The legal question on Presidential authority hinges on which of these positions the Federal Reserve Chairman is found to occupy. \n\n**This question asks: Will President Trump fire Jerome Powell, or ask him to resign, with Powell acceding to that request?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports in the U.S. financial press state that Jerome Powell has left the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and that he was either fired or asked by Trump or the Trump Administration to resign from the office.\n\nIt resolves negatively if Powell leaves of his own accord (e.g. to retire or pursue other opportunities, or in protest against Trump Administration policy or Trump himself), or if he leaves for reasons other than those outlined above (e.g. death, disability, incapacity, et cetera), or if his term of office expires and he is not appointed to a new term, does not seek a new term, or refuses to accept a new term.\n\nThe question 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20,000?", "created_at": "2018-12-21T22:22:22.294349Z", "open_time": "2018-12-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-25T04:46:32.463763Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-25T04:46:32.463763Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-30T19:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-30T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-30T19:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.\n\n**Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?**\n\nResolves positively if the DJIA ever reaches an intraday level above 25,000 before reaching an intraday level of 20,000; resolves negatively if the inverse is true; and resolves ambiguously if (before either condition is met) the DJIA is discontinued or altered to such an extent that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548883337.111152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548883337.111152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"2019-01-02T11:08:52.382591Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-01-02T11:08:52.382591Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-11T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-24T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \n\nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas.\n([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\n\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\n\n**If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?**\n\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\n\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\n\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\n\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. 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updated?", "created_at": "2018-12-21T01:27:53.774182Z", "open_time": "2018-12-23T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-24T07:00:19.278061Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-24T07:00:19.278061Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-24T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[The Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a man-made [global catastrophe.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk) Maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, the clock represents an analogy for the threat of global nuclear war. Since 2007, it has also reflected climate change and new developments in the life sciences and technology that could inflict irrevocable harm to humanity.\n\nThe clock represents the hypothetical global catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to a global catastrophe as a number of \"minutes\" to midnight.\n\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has been set backward and forward 23 times since then, the smallest-ever number of minutes to midnight being two (in 1953 and 2018) and the largest seventeen (in 1991). You can view a graphical representation of these time changes [here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Doomsday_Clock_graph.svg)\n\nSince January 2018, the clock is set at [two minutes to midnight,](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) due to \"the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change.”\n\n**This question asks: when the clock is next updated, will the time be any later than two minutes to midnight?**\n\nThe clock need not advance by a full minute; any advance will suffice for a positive resolution. If the clock is left unchanged at two minutes to midnight, or if it is moved back, this question resolves negatively.\n\nIf the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock is to be discontinued before any relevant time changes (or decisions to leave it unchanged) are made, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1668, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546275548.089221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546275548.089221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.29261411880179605 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.28794148447432993, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09329258471159352, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?", "created_at": "2018-12-20T05:57:26.556487Z", "open_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-23T17:56:17.762391Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-23T17:56:17.762391Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T19:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-01-01T19:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[There have been a number of North Korean missile tests.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures\n\nAs of 30 November 2017, North Korea has carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984. 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il-sung and 16 under Kim Jong-il. Under Kim Jong-un, more than 80 tests have been undertaken.\n\n2017 saw tensions reach perhaps their highest level ever after dozens of missiles were tested over a period of several months, including [multiple missiles launched over Japanese territory,](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41275614) and the [launch of ICBMs believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States mainland.](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/28/the-missile-north-korea-launched-can-hit-washington-dc.html)\n\nUnited States President Donald Trump, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, then warned that the United States would [\"totally destroy North Korea\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQAjScY4nMM) if forced to do so.\n\nAs of December 20 2018, the most recent North Korean ballistic missile launch took place on November 28, 2017 when North Korea launched an ICBM from the vicinity of Pyongsong at 1:30pm EST/3:00am Pyongyang time. The rocket traveled for 50 minutes and reached 2800 miles (4,500 km) in height, both of which were new milestones.\n\nIn 2018,[North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un met with United States President Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_North_Korea%E2%80%93United_States_summit) and [signed an agreement to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.](https://www.vox.com/2018/6/12/17452532/trump-kim-document-agreement-full-text-denuclearization-read) \n\nHowever, on 20 December 2018, North Korea announced [\"it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States removes its nuclear threat first,\"](https://apnews.com/9ad490e00ff5458daa98edb9745aa27e?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow) raising further doubts as to whether Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un will ever relinquish an arsenal he may see as his greatest guarantee of survival, and raises the spectre of a return to sabre rattling.\n\n**This question asks: Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?**\n\nThis question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations or by confirmation of any any permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\n\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1551387194.310127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1551387194.310127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21968903672008339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5165647093564417, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1761834171421036, 0.4261583910024024, 1.4423445278549991, 0.011989632823413173, 0.06464763481520866, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6788279701100555, 0.004178148511023217, 0.0, 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"economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1665, "title": "Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?", "created_at": "2018-12-19T22:57:25.176905Z", "open_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-23T19:38:30.262996Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-23T19:38:30.262996Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T22:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-31T22:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-12-31T22:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX Founder and CEO Elon Musk believes that [a fully and rapidly reusable rocket is the pivotal breakthrough needed to substantially reduce the cost of space access.](https://www.spacex.com/reusability-key-making-human-life-multi-planetary)\n\nSpaceX has had some [significant successes in pursuit of this goal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program), but as of December 2018 has not yet demonstrated that it is possible to launch a payload to orbit, land a complete rocket or rocket stage and re-fly that asset within 24 hours, which [Musk in 2018 claimed is a key milestone for rapid reusability.](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/full-elon-musk-transcript-about-spacex-falcon-9-block-5.html) According to Elon Musk:\n\n> Our goal, just to give you a sense of how reusable we think the design can be, we intend to demonstrate two orbital launches of the same Block 5 vehicle within 24 hours, no later than next year.\n\n> Toward the end of next year we'll see the first Block 5 seeing [its] 10th flight. And like I said, next year is when we intend to demonstrate re-flight of the same primary rocket booster within — basically, same day re-flight of the same rocket. 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Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?", "created_at": "2018-12-19T16:19:26.193698Z", "open_time": "2019-05-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-05-13T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-05-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-06T10:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-06-06T10:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-06-06T10:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On 19 December 2018, [Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was convicted of perverting the course of justice](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46602635). Given the serious nature of this criminal offence, it is widely expected that she will either resign (in the usual manner; [by taking an office of profit under the Crown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_from_the_British_House_of_Commons)) be [recalled by her constituents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015), or be removed from office under the [Representation of the People Act 1981,](http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1981/34/section/1) which states that any MP will be disqualified from sitting as an MP if they are “detained anywhere in the British Islands or the Republic of Ireland ... for more than a year for any offence”. \n\nGiven that Ms Onasanya's imminent departure from the House of Commons is quite likely, it is probable that a by-election will be held in early 2019 to elect a new Member for Peterborough.\n\n**This question asks: Will the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate win the next Parliamentary election held for the [Peterborough constituency,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterborough_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) regardless of when it is held?** \n\nThis question closes retroactively one day before polls open.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559901821.607634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559901821.607634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07234790974947494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.9419992671233794, 0.2581744010322857, 0.620502543612061, 0.153865828537011, 1.8114999970653085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9640744042678477, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.17630000022929448, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"open_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-22T12:43:18.135000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-22T12:43:18.135000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T14:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-31T14:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n\nThe labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\n\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US' Labor Force Participation rate for the calendar year 2023 is lower than 2018, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\n\nIf the rates are the same (within 0.1 percentage points), this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n \nIf BLS do not report data for the entire year 2023, this question wil resolve as **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043227.085374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043227.085374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9455099105858369 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.014649629657009706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013790810217612129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004898327125021473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013925838791901954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023400457658608508, 9.831057152073324e-06, 0.0, 0.026205927094319265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022333035715138246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009470111192341006, 0.012204803423355613, 0.007205738347253606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013228238296163927, 0.012195587163362467, 0.00017390859029303986, 0.01024092344273736, 0.0, 0.04899607795764112, 0.06830126512885842, 0.011373690723178936, 0.12010122051111902, 0.00601339619686677, 0.11009667346391896, 0.036637467494288964, 4.188954254890396e-05, 0.21798548017762917, 0.2963988921714867, 0.0, 0.05395380494604991, 0.004358431021464273, 0.005248283559615201, 0.0017197951687700553, 0.036500853728373354, 0.5457685379027226, 0.12380213859397854, 0.06219575706974364, 0.04326765283581826, 0.10706341621729439, 0.5599309586741257, 0.19611420380229216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2069013982747106, 0.41825547244500905, 0.0036913580409249558, 0.36362609282966973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5033238506977009, 0.3781885218268822, 0.48294338795002756, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5124954963485466, 0.0, 0.3851481616186245, 1.832179089471555, 14.679868149036134 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.736972862424834, "coverage": 0.9999540423745125, "baseline_score": 52.398526123361044, "spot_peer_score": 4.397946264908433, "peer_archived_score": 12.736972862424834, "baseline_archived_score": 52.398526123361044, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.397946264908433 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043227.112294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043227.112294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.024382409726924403, 0.9756175902730756 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 401, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n\nThe labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\n\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000))" }, { "id": 1662, "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", "short_title": "First Commercial Asteroid Mining", "url_title": "First Commercial Asteroid Mining", "slug": "first-commercial-asteroid-mining", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-18T22:37:40.225818Z", "published_at": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T01:00:12.901348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1662, "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", "created_at": "2018-12-18T22:37:40.225818Z", "open_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-22T06:38:25.994875Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-22T06:38:25.994875Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \n\nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \n\nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \n\nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\n\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \n\nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \n\nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 100kg of resources are harvested *primarily for commercial purposes* from any asteroids or comets before January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.\n\nResources mined from asteroids or comets *after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body* do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763773202.402582, "end_time": 1765313472.277992, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763773202.402582, "end_time": 1765313472.277992, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.040450295837383105 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.966819253065886, 4.189562171088737, 1.4458562024241441, 1.9381075959946106, 0.7556976895502538, 2.8646752487254, 0.19877901403446377, 0.8221287035666556, 0.661431421814068, 0.06599368550153853, 0.10477291435404046, 0.0, 0.00021050772238154097, 0.0, 0.0036917754416778883, 0.16135722431859598, 0.030505902341853606, 0.0, 0.01786320515693824, 0.002911345062950054, 0.20396464030923184, 0.07077817475951166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051405870803926876, 0.0, 0.004996290501363098, 0.003116719118884053, 0.0, 0.00229979934405528, 0.006102727274174003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010278555367948234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1696336159816219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040557353356983905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016321426961740597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020334141991549823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11102065352498955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013838618950254273 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289714.358022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289714.358022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.997211381924813, 0.002788618075187022 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 432, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \n\nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \n\nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \n\nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\n\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \n\nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \n\nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)" }, { "id": 1658, "title": "Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-rioting-in-the-uk-or-gibraltar-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-on-29-march-2019", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-15T23:00:04.240644Z", "published_at": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.077617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T16:06:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1658, "title": "Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019?", "created_at": "2018-12-15T23:00:04.240644Z", "open_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-20T17:03:31.280195Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-20T17:03:31.280195Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T16:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-01T16:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.\n\nIn the final stages of negotiating an exit, the UK has met with significant difficulty. A Parliamentary vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's deal, scheduled to take place on December 12th, has been delayed until further notice because of the belief of the British Government that the vote could not be won. May has attempted to secure further concessions from the EU, but high level officials including President Tusk and President Juncker say that no renegotiation is possible. Further, a number of British and European politicians are calling for Brexit to be delayed beyond 29 March 2019, or to be cancelled.\n\nPrime Minister May has ruled out delaying or cancelling Brexit on many occasions since taking office in 2016, saying that to do so would be a betrayal of the electorate, undermine faith in democracy and lead to political instability. Others have claimed that there will be protests, violence and even insurrection in the event that Brexit is not implemented. Others fear that these events will occur if Brexit *does* happen.\n\n**If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019, as planned, will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if Brexit occurs on schedule on 29 March 2019, and credible media reports indicate that rioting has taken place anywhere in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar as a result. The rioting must occur within 30 days of 23:00 London time 29 March 2019.\n\nResolves ambiguously if Brexit is delayed or cancelled. Resolves positive if protests occur that directly result in damages to property (cars, shops, windows, etc.) amounting to at least £100,000 (≈$126,900).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1547662048.423611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1547662048.423611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5301806642404115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48529413660216764, 0.0, 0.010703886146113043, 0.0, 0.0842994967746899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3082206783863093, 0.0, 0.13172953217580627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05371314017416348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056634720787138736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43407112800173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.0, 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"question": { "id": 1653, "title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?", "created_at": "2018-12-14T21:59:46.414388Z", "open_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-20T22:17:59.995617Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-20T22:17:59.995617Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-05-29T11:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-05-29T11:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-05-29T11:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [\"A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology\".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)\n\nThe respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.\n\nAn individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.\n\nThe design calls for twelve pumping stations to be spaced evenly along an equatorial circle. Each station has its own independent glucose-metabolizing powerplant, glucose tank, environmental glucose sensors, and glucose sorting rotors. Each station alone can generate sufficient energy to power the entire respirocyte, and has an array of 3-stage molecular sorting rotor assemblies for pumping O2, CO2, and H2O from the ambient medium into an interior chamber, and vice versa. The number of rotor sorters in each array is determined both by performance requirements and by the anticipated concentration of each target molecule in the bloodstream.\n\nThe equatorial pumping station network occupies ~50% of respirocyte surface. On the remaining surface, a universal \"bar code\" consisting of concentric circular patterns of shallow rounded ridges is embossed on each side, centered on the \"north pole\" and \"south pole\" of the device. This coding permits easy product identification by an attending physician with a small blood sample and access to an electron microscope, and may also allow rapid reading by other more sophisticated medical nanorobots which might be deployed in the future.\n\nThe promise of artificial mechanical red cells is that it gives physicians the ability to precisely control saturation curve profiles independently for oxygen and carbon dioxide, either to maximize gas transport efficiency or to meet specialized demand functions imposed by emergency situations, unusual activities, or specific medical treatments.\n\nRespirocytes are an example of molecular nanotechnology, a field of technology still in the very earliest, purely hypothetical phase of development. Current technology is not sufficient to build a respirocyte due to considerations of power, atomic-scale manipulation, immune reaction or toxicity, computation and communication. Creation of this kind of device would require multiple technological breakthroughs. For further information on respirocytes, see e.g. [this essay by Freitas.](http://www.kurzweilai.net/respirocytes)\n\n**This question asks: Before 1 January 2035, will 'artificial red blood cells' with broadly the functionality described by Freitas be used successfully in any mammal?**\n\nResolves positively upon the publication of an article in a respectable scientific journal indicating that such devices have been successfully used in a living mammal to meaningfully augment and or replace (partially or totally) the existing supply of red blood cells. A meaningful augmentation is an augmentation resulting in a non-trivial increase in overall performance of the existing red cell population. These respirocytes will need to be perform at least some gas transport function, and be principally the product of nanotechnology techniques, including (but not limited to) those outlined by [Freitas' article](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html). This therefore excludes transfusions of modified red blood cells from existing organisms. Finally, the mammal needs to survive at least 7 days after the introduction of the respirocytes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1653, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622188977.780007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622188977.780007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.46673689124577117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01134226073249967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6590390464516561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00910251771749428, 0.0, 0.017957461426048017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7062608640932094, 0.4529037759716625, 0.04393255368134378, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.012155930495105455, 0.1545958694210535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16461528108505305, 0.1874727013882846, 0.0, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.6929804176148346, 0.3728600386790456, 0.033167896481265315, 0.031101265551350954, 0.0, 0.24248973748817793, 1.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 1.8918280521063007, 0.0, 1.621548076832842, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0625760055549752, 0.8336977180780853, 0.09467292063321112, 0.0, 0.5475369850104072, 0.34906719769614464, 0.5495385228452574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3879147110409491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41629358703487074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17749062094567275, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2106462580678574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014358311246418655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9971825706390332 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1622188977.844535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1622188977.844535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6294511103765665, 0.3705488896234335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
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