Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5760
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5780", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5740", "results": [ { "id": 1652, "title": "Will the Federal Government of the United States partially shut down (temporarily) by 22 December 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-government-of-the-united-states-partially-shut-down-temporarily-by-22-december-2018", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T23:46:38.563151Z", "published_at": "2018-12-15T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.621775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-15T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-15T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1652, "title": "Will the Federal Government of the United States partially shut down (temporarily) by 22 December 2018?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T23:46:38.563151Z", "open_time": "2018-12-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-17T04:01:10.420652Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-17T04:01:10.420652Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-20T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A possible partial government shutdown is less than ten days away with President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats locked in a dispute over border security and no resolution in sight.\n\nFunding expires for a number of key government agencies on December 21 at midnight, and while there is still time to avert a shutdown, so far the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement to keep the government open.\n\nCongress left town today for a long weekend with no plan to avoid a government shutdown in 8 days. Democrats flatly reject Trump’s demand for $5b wall money, and it can’t pass the Senate. GOP leaders are waiting on Trump for a signal on what to do. There are no negotiations underway.\n\n**Will the Federal Government of the United States be partially shut down for any period before 00:01 Eastern Time on 22 December 2018?**\n\nThis resolves positive if any credible U.S. news source confirms the shutting down of the affected activities involving the [furlough](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furlough) of non-essential personnel and curtailment of agency activities and services.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1652, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1545263677.41614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1545263677.41614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.17507024024523682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9140682267853789, 0.0, 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structure before 2031?", "short_title": "Breakthrough in Protein Prediction by 2031", "url_title": "Breakthrough in Protein Prediction by 2031", "slug": "breakthrough-in-protein-prediction-by-2031", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T22:48:55.547717Z", "published_at": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T00:03:49.682129Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 296, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T02:14:00.883673Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T02:14:00.883673Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1651, "title": "Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T22:48:55.547717Z", "open_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-19T00:07:53.947297Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-19T00:07:53.947297Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\n\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \n\nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\n\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\n\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\n\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\n\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\n\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\n\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \n\nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\n\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/) before January 1, 2031. GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n\n***(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762925087.842421, "end_time": 1765737832.195988, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762925087.842421, "end_time": 1765737832.195988, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9754194711270073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.031196534557238108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001754444627185417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04493595749798994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010419530752753027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009093804924590151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005132985441866025, 0.5444118760658287, 0.00017938026721919405, 0.0, 0.00010117753574938043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016409049324240627, 0.0, 0.04296677521261069, 0.0, 0.0006007127753358399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0179525624904896, 0.0, 0.003292310500800376, 0.0, 0.0003203054119168446, 0.00021040971061648078, 0.0, 2.6425014689561506e-05, 0.49039410804180245, 0.0, 0.6945478964907135, 0.0, 0.1734289617571198, 0.006950613721811482, 0.0, 0.3992026287503402, 0.46598320386716174, 1.1759546811549724, 0.3953829802060392, 22.576209029138592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289334.126099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 289, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289334.126099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 289, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008851612513721574, 0.9911483874862784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 640, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\n\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \n\nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\n\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\n\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\n\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\n\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\n\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\n\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \n\nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\n\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it." }, { "id": 1650, "title": "Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "short_title": "US Second Amendment Amended by 2025", "url_title": "US Second Amendment Amended by 2025", "slug": "us-second-amendment-amended-by-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T22:10:21.313892Z", "published_at": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.026708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:49:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 261, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T00:15:12.359638Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T00:15:12.359638Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1650, "title": "Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T22:10:21.313892Z", "open_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-21T17:11:30.115733Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-21T17:11:30.115733Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:50:27.711864Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \n\nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \n\nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\n\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\n\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \n\nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025, the Second Amendment is repealed, amended, or modified in any way through the proceduce in [Article Five](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution) of the US Constitution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1650, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653722.433224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653722.433224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00513984157363289 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.19933539042551, 5.8622269903505995, 0.10766432217287336, 0.0032475751336690853, 0.01222905983441123, 0.0960623559305532, 2.1002359233894987e-05, 4.3489342240769413e-07, 0.22264902514390464, 0.0, 0.013225847949416985, 3.0264832753166467e-05, 0.0016480548049091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001951919973895253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.56917038226968e-05, 0.012808087220194102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006840948250633283, 0.0, 0.0, 4.633486419300107e-05, 6.5288954530597215e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035679827226632333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09185132212499102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012898572803886153 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.52667470331164, "peer_score": 9.04862204277608, "coverage": 0.9999505154735208, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999505154735208, "spot_peer_score": 3.259066568562045, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 98.52667470331164, "peer_archived_score": 9.04862204277608, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.259066568562045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289386.39461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289386.39461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 520, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \n\nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \n\nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\n\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\n\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \n\nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment." }, { "id": 1649, "title": "Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jeremy-corbyn-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T22:00:05.829929Z", "published_at": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.539684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T10:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"actual_close_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Jeremy Corbyn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn) is currently the Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition in the United Kingdom, and has occupied these offices since 2015.\n\nThe current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is [Theresa May](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theresa_May), Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, who has occupied these offices since 2016.\n\nUnder the terms of the [Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011), no general election can be held in the United Kingdom before 2022 unless a supermajority of two thirds of members of the House of Commons vote for one, or unless the government of the day falls in the event of a vote of no confidence. \n\nHowever, note that it is legally impossible in the United Kingdom for Parliament to bind itself or any future Parliament, and there is nothing in law preventing Parliament from amending or abolishing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 by simple majority vote.\n\nYou can view opinion polling for the next UK General Election [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), and view historical polling for the last 25 years 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condition to change before 2100", "url_title": "Human condition to change before 2100", "slug": "human-condition-to-change-before-2100", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T01:32:14.334969Z", "published_at": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T14:29:25.450772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 283, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, 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"technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1646, "title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T01:32:14.334969Z", "open_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-09-06T21:43:30.678591Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-09-06T21:43:30.678591Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\n>\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\n>\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\n>\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\n\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\n\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\n\nThe question we ask here is: **Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?**\n\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \n\nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\n\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\n\n**Resolution**\n\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are >= 98% or <= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\n\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\n\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761229746.977316, "end_time": 1787394422.55, "forecaster_count": 283, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761229746.977316, "end_time": 1787394422.55, "forecaster_count": 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to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T00:37:41.516439Z", "published_at": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.531064Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T13:53:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1645, "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T00:37:41.516439Z", "open_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-18T18:49:00.463458Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-18T18:49:00.463458Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T13:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-24T14:06:48.375653Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 \\(kg/m^3\\), speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of \\(45°\\) [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\n\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\n\n**This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?** \n\nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703923868.963977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703923868.963977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.06712957634199779 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4264813223648856, 9.510237527496038, 3.499985788648271, 3.3967052963737436, 0.42479068784628554, 0.8461625392824792, 0.2277130101989837, 0.2452656809936466, 0.7564136729519659, 0.019879741963322217, 0.16488108580575433, 0.009691448762942057, 0.21115417350088916, 0.08643924287235277, 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[], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1644, "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-13T00:09:04.137290Z", "published_at": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T21:44:38.566100Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1644, "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "created_at": "2018-12-13T00:09:04.137290Z", "open_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-07-02T07:26:04.121374Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-07-02T07:26:04.121374Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "#Context\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\n\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \n\nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \n\nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\n#Question\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\n#Resolution\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \n\nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762558071.67295, "end_time": 1766174315.732141, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762558071.67295, "end_time": 1766174315.732141, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], 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rate reach 10% before 2023?", "slug": "will-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-12T23:21:54.808991Z", "published_at": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.056652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-05-08T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-08T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1643, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?", "created_at": "2018-12-12T23:21:54.808991Z", "open_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-17T01:32:11.984150Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-17T01:32:11.984150Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-05-08T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-05-08T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-05-08T14:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate).\n\n**At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1643, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1588946020.494432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1588946020.494432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9773249110825943 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004177365741022818, 0.0, 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Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\n\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\n\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one living human makes the journey from inside the metropolitan area of New York City, United States to Greater London, United Kingdom (or vice-versa) in under three hours any point before January 1, 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\n\nThe measured time will include only the journey itself (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763700598.191172, "end_time": 1766572860.409785, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763700598.191172, "end_time": 1766572860.409785, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11665878202847182 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.673235612073539, 2.6569392109964447, 1.364122176336285, 0.25819864751488064, 3.6203937638268284, 4.4315112373153545, 1.3253110370613301, 1.0668194878941335, 0.5908076204740378, 0.1949342814775763, 0.5571726542374369, 0.2557630197616688, 0.0025800625142488095, 0.0, 0.1080824717054289, 0.6187420624259595, 0.16277903872133043, 0.0, 0.2558989794999029, 0.0, 0.31197113350892547, 0.2795159910700996, 7.647058950878276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45311208345128884, 0.46461835079136404, 0.0017983052449643145, 0.042871243295727945, 0.0, 5.076579913514921e-05, 0.0, 0.01528457773155082, 0.44511608342855336, 0.007175916059486949, 0.02305537299045219, 0.0, 0.007386288239022192, 0.06901840235599123, 0.0, 0.016699079554216067, 0.04945572649622851, 9.17972214490031e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011801214342597049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09816907399743029, 0.0001089789675095372, 0.0008562198652991213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07370450962028582, 0.00478616569246074, 0.0030281593095766446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01599549843141791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065183324312382, 0.0059500500185428636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009021387193428454, 6.284332020001618e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011014061029003179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002377767818729952, 0.07539882114194352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033504355242035266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0583040222195613 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287741.950239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287741.950239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9785562547210035, 0.02144374527899651 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 30, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 636, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\n\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\n\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes." }, { "id": 1641, "title": "Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-boris-johnson-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-30-march-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-11T22:54:53.369579Z", "published_at": "2018-12-15T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.514484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-15T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-06-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before Janury 1 2025, any human lives without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung.\n\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654637.971619, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654637.971619, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04661757485688379 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.379031952336431, 8.562796714692423, 2.3309394027954986, 0.25849243406368566, 0.0, 1.1253515791529285, 0.30635160664553274, 0.0, 0.07773971246053275, 0.0, 0.15633655051059003, 0.0399849568828187, 0.16414877281659526, 0.04736123614324454, 0.0029775136995386347, 0.141979650057956, 0.04548794392179894, 0.2992599583216887, 0.05314022407082496, 0.005447088311836894, 0.14757287564384208, 0.025825103189343838, 0.032422961924376284, 1.888676513153154e-05, 0.004885860734774042, 0.2653733638161146, 0.20105396666788006, 0.07903760305449721, 0.002339253448980454, 0.0, 0.03734667624858667, 0.008166649088628127, 0.00017947996461924502, 0.05159045827595184, 0.06219526185937794, 0.10462510916567397, 0.015828924709904466, 0.010477421985489016, 0.017756906297009847, 0.03635141725049953, 0.18523485204046186, 0.0, 0.011043942167855364, 0.002715008077382995, 6.749671734956029e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008775254221166996, 0.0, 0.9871350201949423, 0.0, 4.620607575435836e-05, 0.0, 0.0008818619261177072, 0.0002118515353145872, 0.00010489779186695866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.722735396065555e-06, 0.004938304286026689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.946124929572964e-07, 0.00013609106381339255, 0.0, 0.000250831427435679, 0.0006931445034199491, 9.186312772965243e-05, 1.0547466872544296e-05, 2.1037393225080802e-05, 0.04027215637102678, 8.146131166088165e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018864007442280933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004472761782915966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019701465816653833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036389320514285034 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.35146054858373, "peer_score": 23.347509389605417, "coverage": 0.9999989286678698, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999989286678698, "spot_peer_score": 3.3931655924281494, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 58.35146054858373, "peer_archived_score": 23.347509389605417, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3931655924281494, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288726.315035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288726.315035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9979216049875295, 0.0020783950124704906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 579, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice." }, { "id": 1639, "title": "British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "british-pound-us-dollar-parity-before-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020?", "created_at": "2018-12-10T21:39:49.447072Z", "open_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-13T21:44:44.148251Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-13T21:44:44.148251Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T10:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T10:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T10:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The British Pound is currently trading at approximately $1.256 as of December 10 2018. **Will it trade at equal to or less than $1.000 at any time before January 1, 2020?**\n\nCurrent and historical rates are available from [XE Currency Data](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=10Y).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546272186.378686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546272186.378686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24803242192112201 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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2030", "url_title": "Alex Jones Holds US Office by 2030", "slug": "alex-jones-holds-us-office-by-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-10T20:44:58.164831Z", "published_at": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T02:26:17.272993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 309, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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Federal office in the United States before 2030?", "created_at": "2018-12-10T20:44:58.164831Z", "open_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-14T02:55:42.135309Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-14T02:55:42.135309Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\n\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\n\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\n\n\n**This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?**\n\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\n\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762783646.406357, "end_time": 1765226561.655175, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762783646.406357, "end_time": 1765226561.655175, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.011820016557966542 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.233144391684524, 16.026137825033224, 1.2321406432503665, 1.1086192193167121, 0.39643395452266006, 0.25823799125187824, 0.0, 0.00030199709854652346, 6.044742099171579e-05, 0.06993142202130646, 0.0006229557629782081, 0.0, 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"type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\n\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\n\n**At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1634, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525580.104949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of 2012, at a time when the world population was approximately 7.167 billion, estimates from Adherents.com (a website established in 1998 that collects and presents information on religious demographics; it is the largest pool of such data freely available on the internet) indicated that approximately 84% of the world population practiced some form of religion.\n\nAt that time, only four specific religious faiths had more than an estimated 500 million adherents. They were Christianity at 2.4 billion, Islam at 1.8 billion, Hinduism at 1.15 billion, and Buddhism at 521 million. [See the list here for more details.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_religious_populations)\n\n\n*This question asks: as of 1 January 2050, will there be any single religious faith with more than 500 million adherents which does not appear in the list of specific religious faiths included in the body of this question?*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1631, "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", "short_title": "Cuba to remain communist through 2023?", "url_title": "Cuba to remain communist through 2023?", "slug": "cuba-to-remain-communist-through-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-09T00:50:10.888785Z", "published_at": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.747053Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T06:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T06:27:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 240, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1631, "title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", "created_at": "2018-12-09T00:50:10.888785Z", "open_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-13T14:48:53.294478Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-13T14:48:53.294478Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T06:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T06:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T06:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \n\nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\n\n**Will Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?**\n\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\n\n*Edit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1631, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1637775392.601942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1637775392.601942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9137338643527086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.026065121491789186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"short_title": "Alien Technosignature Detection by 2050", "url_title": "Alien Technosignature Detection by 2050", "slug": "alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-08T20:04:14.908271Z", "published_at": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T10:19:56.622948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 583, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Technosignatures](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\n\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered before January 1, 2050. This announcement qualifies *only if* it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of *biosignatures* alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763823616.298479, "end_time": 1771126157.03643, "forecaster_count": 532, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763823616.298479, "end_time": 1771126157.03643, "forecaster_count": 532, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10216491716493807 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.708589349919201, 8.396338206961948, 2.167367722985955, 3.506486939817983, 1.4835831114008693, 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false, "description": "[Technosignatures](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\n\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft." }, { "id": 1626, "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-08T03:11:53.965630Z", "published_at": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "created_at": "2018-12-08T03:11:53.965630Z", "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-11T19:46:32.685867Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-11T19:46:32.685867Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\n\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \n\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1626, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761630121.887388, "end_time": 1764187094.552703, 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Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1625, "title": "By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", "created_at": "2018-12-08T02:41:50.215426Z", 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"resolution_criteria": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\n\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\n\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\n\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \n\nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \n\nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\n\n**By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?**\n\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\n\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\n\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\n\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare. Nor may the test subject initially score under 1 standard deviation of the United States mean score.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if by January 1, 2050, \n\n- *30 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 3 separate tests*, or\n\n- *100 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 2 separate tests*, or\n\n- *200 healthy adult humans* under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated *from 1 separate test*.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1625, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762994805.531663, "end_time": 1770562949.106087, "forecaster_count": 223, 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before 1 January 2035?", "created_at": "2018-12-08T01:32:57.545905Z", "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-11T19:16:08.802000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-11T19:16:08.802000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual [laboratory mouse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratory_mouse) of species *Mus musculus* has lived for at least 2,500 days.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1624, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763948095.628448, "end_time": 1763968960.86008, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763948095.628448, "end_time": 1763968960.86008, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5956213429177178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01814051570651832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1027218499487311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18392065328946933, 0.0, 0.023700234557073117, 0.4129173969284148, 0.0, 1.0036470026727335, 0.0, 0.3462191900209105, 0.02332504983784112, 0.0, 0.4634600482779875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019859582997801255, 0.6145696694889957, 0.036065484554214176, 0.6495679415804932, 0.0020908006710962453, 0.0010689465272835212, 0.0, 0.055105888832778074, 0.08469632619488367, 0.6024861716581134, 0.6254002675811614, 0.0, 0.9214409172405724, 0.18701184823326883, 0.6498809295154794, 0.8858469502280313, 0.0, 1.3763874528010085, 0.11989660614312392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007068330947876764, 1.7030357101907576, 0.6515076509882127, 0.005278083116039403, 0.1100607171671536, 0.0, 0.5127393326928226, 0.0, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.07199357643662296, 0.0, 0.5495593173022819, 0.0007096313110553183, 0.31935132807438826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3262038732013748, 0.042329219623205, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.0, 0.5277678700071562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057637412486455035, 0.0, 0.011256236138329163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964236142126823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.36129722661959 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289522.398971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289522.398971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6104442158225498, 0.3895557841774502 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 413, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity." } ] }
\n\n**This](http://here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_general_election_polling_over_a_period_of_25_years.png)%5Cn%5Cn**This){kind=link}