Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5780
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5800", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5760", "results": [ { "id": 1623, "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-nuclear-device-with-a-yield-above-1kt-be-detonated-anywhere-on-earth-in-2019", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-08T01:07:16.080200Z", "published_at": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.106199Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1623, "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?", "created_at": "2018-12-08T01:07:16.080200Z", "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-11T18:33:34.393378Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-11T18:33:34.393378Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T18:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T11:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T11:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.\n\nThe official tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests). \n\nAs of December 2018, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that [yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemndations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\n\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are *suspected* to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield above 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the above conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2019 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2019. Tests or detonations occuring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1623, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546202681.430905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546202681.430905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.2865927537835044 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17262475494939217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4756622259840623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5434825530336195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.8671242455419645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41755979230294654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505, 0.0, 0.5657073287564951, 0.5429942209064903, 0.9292991145104746, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2239750440005848, 0.30155575609455343, 0.0, 0.06558277922661773, 0.800591043524475, 2.2116011361489694, 1.47378224284019, 0.4937885396988318, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.5807695740569876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15635056202879707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.08217748750208807, "coverage": 0.999573934691783, "baseline_score": 49.01106758468674, "spot_peer_score": 9.339628371178355, "peer_archived_score": -0.08217748750208807, "baseline_archived_score": 49.01106758468674, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.339628371178355 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546202681.463545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546202681.463545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7905908973418595, 0.20940910265814053 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1621, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "FDA Approval for Senolytic Therapy by 2030", "url_title": "FDA Approval for Senolytic Therapy by 2030", "slug": "fda-approval-for-senolytic-therapy-by-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-07T20:52:56.097598Z", "published_at": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T09:23:45.037880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1621, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2018-12-07T20:52:56.097598Z", "open_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before 2030. The approval must be given before January 1, 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no such therapy is approved before 2030. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before 2030, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763882657.232553, "end_time": 1763965817.705516, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763882657.232553, "end_time": 1763965817.705516, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.509948132469963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025334624450131557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013566382457547477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49486581730643187, 0.0, 0.5849213363977527, 0.9490716027736056, 0.6527822562352956, 0.0, 0.8541214223446619, 0.008264124158046256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9004775312256853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.689272497311861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02116287905174719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6915138424029788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.354020761297878, 0.0, 0.03247615849383687, 0.0, 0.038116511185013476, 0.2724153372716499, 0.08041172864559165, 1.1529385762991986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12143838391847508, 2.194529337090278, 1.6486521833361594, 0.006676994274053015, 0.3226474907486227, 0.0, 0.7045333546832719, 0.30379997323287206, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.3778016878608636, 0.0, 0.005393300677451357, 0.2983629195195544, 0.0013717567701513151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7460470801677889, 0.15346974374769443, 0.22403958776103833, 0.20358675577850374, 0.0, 0.11355538817762112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002809175117399587, 0.0018827190265937534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4695066673508084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9742598397223061 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288743.817588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288743.817588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6984199361306748, 0.30158006386932523 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 42, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 439, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)" }, { "id": 1618, "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", "short_title": "Zuma Satellite Confirmed In Orbit by 2030", "url_title": "Zuma Satellite Confirmed In Orbit by 2030", "slug": "zuma-satellite-confirmed-in-orbit-by-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-06T23:16:59.141268Z", "published_at": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.288463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1618, "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", "created_at": "2018-12-06T23:16:59.141268Z", "open_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-10T05:12:53.710150Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-10T05:12:53.710150Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites (http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird).\n\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\n\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \n\nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \n\nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\n\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\n\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688367.735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688367.735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.3910550264087436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.022080351091492714, 0.0, 0.36268113225179854, 0.059404042739326854, 0.36791876519707073, 0.3025590700220252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08004415018325654, 0.6224148937633026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2859117478363966, 0.3215441986439308, 0.0, 0.06907049790903583, 0.002324601321449946, 0.001188479870048893, 0.2843181161112849, 0.0003468500661995196, 0.0, 0.09247365187383665, 0.0, 0.0547699410195656, 0.13102563455516375, 0.0, 0.18369173497747426, 0.0, 0.18242601439289355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8993524897416518, 0.013817601810517008, 0.011897463839598046, 0.6832930013687624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05501822300631056, 0.9380915015388183, 0.033935230432844125, 4.083629916126073, 2.425489777651836, 0.15369467918853164, 1.3796074768962812, 0.545601113133245, 0.0509094210982425, 0.6163070346490953, 0.12236809185274873, 0.04684727198177338, 0.1602537016262924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09928470899229455, 0.9472364898758326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868296847176136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006230825651377918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4864712465365661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03695445799964774, 0.04346351096687949 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289969.708218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289969.708218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.720555113827414, 0.279444886172586 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 227, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites (http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird).\n\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\n\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \n\nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \n\nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\n\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)" }, { "id": 1617, "title": "Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hillary-clinton-run-for-the-office-of-president-of-the-united-states-in-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-06T22:39:22.395595Z", "published_at": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.396329Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-01T13:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-01T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 184, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1617, "title": "Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?", "created_at": "2018-12-06T22:39:22.395595Z", "open_time": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-09T12:12:34.668506Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-09T12:12:34.668506Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-01T13:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-01T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-01T13:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-04T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Hillary Rodham Clinton, former First Lady of the United States and former Secretary of State, was a candidate for President of the United States in 2008 and 2016.\n\nIn 2008, she failed to win the Democratic Party's nomination and subsequently endorsed then-Senator Barack Obama, who went on to win the Presidency. In 2016, she won the nomination of the Democratic Party and selected then-Senator (and former Governor of Virginia) Tim Kaine as her running mate in the Presidential Election. She won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College to Republican nominee Donald Trump.\n\nSince her loss in 2016, Clinton has publicly denied, on multiple occasions, any plans to run for federal office in the future. However, [in October 2018, Clinton admitted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413572-hillary-clinton-leaves-door-open-for-2020-run-id-like-to-be-president) 'I'd like to be President' when pushed on the matter by a journalist. \n\n**Will Hillary Clinton run for the Presidency of the United States in 2020?**\n\nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that Hillary Clinton, former First Lady of the United States and former Secretary of State, (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2020 United States Presidential election.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1580771690.770689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1580771690.770689, "end_time": 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null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 438, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1616, "title": "Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-queen-elizabeth-ii-still-be-the-reigning-monarch-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2020", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-06T22:09:03.288104Z", "published_at": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.551034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:34:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-09T00:00:00Z", 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Queen Elizabeth II, 92, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 66 years and 299 days. She is currently [considered to be the sixth-longest reigning sovereign monarch]((https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)) with a verifiable reign of all time. \n\nThis question resolves positively if Elizabeth II is still the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom on January 1 2020, at which time she will be 93 years, 8 months, 11 days old and have reigned for 67 years, 10 months, 27 days including the end date.\n\nThe question shall resolve negatively in the event that Elizabeth II is dead, has abdicated, has been deposed, or is declared missing before 00:00 on January 1 2020, if the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\n\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "", 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"actual_resolve_time": "2019-03-29T14:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-03-29T14:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, has consistently ruled out the possibility of another referendum on Brexit before the UK leaves the EU on the 29th of March 2019. However, with the process now mired in difficulty and with a Parliamentary vote on May's proposed deal with the EU now only days away - a vote most observers agree that she will lose - May's advisers are reported (https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/may-team-second-referendum-soft-brexit) to be urging her to consider the possibility of offering the public another referendum on Brexit.\n\nThis question shall resolve positively if before the 29th of March 2019 another referendum is held in the United Kingdom in which the public are asked to choose to either remain in the European Union or to leave the European Union, regardless of any terms appended to those options (e.g. to leave the European Union with no deal, or with May's deal, or to remain in the Euopean Union on new terms, et cetera).\n\nA referendum on merely accepting or rejecting any proposed deal with the European Union, without regard to either remaining or leaving, will not suffice; membership of the Union itself must be on 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[September this year](https://www.click2houston.com/news/could-a-sex-robot-brothel-open-in-houston-your-questions-answered), it looked as if America's first sex doll brothel was about to cut the red ribbon and receive its first customers. However, a [wave of media attention](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/01/houston-robot-brothel-kinky-s-dolls-sex-trafficking) brought the issue [to the attention of the Houston City Council](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/01/houston-robot-brothel-kinky-s-dolls-sex-trafficking), who [hurriedly passed an ordinance](https://www.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2018/10/04/we-are-not-sin-city-houston-city-council-bans-proposed-sex-robot-brothel) that apparently banned the use, but not sale, of sex dolls in what it terms \"adult arcades\". (The amendment to the definition of \"arcade device\" does not yet appear in [this version of the ordinance](http://houston-tx.elaws.us/code/coor_apxid141247_ch28_artii_div1_sec28-81) I found online.)\n\nBut never mind – Kinky S Dolls can still operate from its premises in Toronto, which it describes as the \"first SexDoll 'rent before you buy' Spa in North America\". (I'm not going to link to their site, but it's not hard to find.)\n\nAccording to [one list, there are 11 sex doll brothels operating around the world](https://futureofsex.net/robots/map-of-sex-doll-brothels-around-the-world/). This question asks the following:\n\n**Before August 1st 2019, will there exist an establishment in the United States, legal and open to the public, that advertises and offers a service of renting out sex dolls for use on its premises?**\n\nThe establishment must be reasonably believed to have been able to sell this service to at least one customer.\n\n(It might be Kinky S Dolls after all – its founder mentioned that he was talking to lawyers about [suing the city council over their decision](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-houston-dolls/houston-officials-block-brothel-from-featuring-sex-dolls-idUSKCN1MD2GQ).)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554049940.407676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554049940.407676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 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"2019-03-04T21:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-03-04T21:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-18T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-18T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Facebook has had mixed news over the past year. \n\nOn the plus side, it's still the [3rd most visited site globally](https://www.alexa.com/topsites), and its founder Mark Zuckerberg spent some of this year as the [3rd richest person on the planet](https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/06/technology/business/mark-zuckerberg-warren-buffett/index.html). On the other hand, it announced its [first-ever decrease in monthly active users](http://uk.businessinsider.com/facebooks-growth-problems-will-get-worse-2018-7?r=US&IR=T), which caused its stock to plummet by [nearly 25% in a single day](http://fortune.com/2018/07/26/data-sheet-facebook-stock-price-plunge/); scandals about its political influence [in the UK](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/nov/24/mps-seize-cache-facebook-internal-papers) and [the US](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/technology/facebook-data-russia-election-racism.html?module=inline) still smoulder; and the aforementioned plunge was [chased by over 4 months of steady ebbing in its share price](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/chart?p=FB) that continues to the present day.\n\nWill Facebook's fortunes further founder? Or will the future find fairer fates?\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will the closing price of Facebook's shares on March 4th 2019 be lower than the closing price on December 3rd 2018?**\n\nThe question resolution will be decided according to the \"close\" column on [Yahoo's tracker for Facebook shares](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/history?p=FB), which gives the close price on December 3rd 2018 as **141.09 USD**. 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This trade war started with the US introducing 10% tariffs, and a threat of 25% tariffs planned to go in effect the 1st of January 2019.\n\nThe 25% in tariffs were delayed on the 1st of December 2018 after the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi where a temporary \"truce\" was declared.\n\nAs BBC wrote: [\"For this it has gained a 90-day reprieve, during which time both sides have pledged to ramp up talks.\"](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46413196)\n\nThe following Monday the markets rallied on the good news.\n\n---\n\nIf the US still plans to increase tariffs (on any goods) *during or after* the truce period ending Thursday 24 February 2019 then this question resolves yes, otherwise no.\n\nIf the truce is extended, it will resolve negative.\n\nWe will only consider announcements made by US officials for resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1551045213.905167, "end_time": null, 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by an EU member?", "created_at": "2018-12-02T23:14:00.822258Z", "open_time": "2018-12-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-08T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-05-18T22:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-18T22:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-05-18T22:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-17T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Eurovision Song Contest is held each year to bring the nations of Europe together, in a spirit of comradely rivalry, celebrating the relative harmony of these past seventy years, smiling to each other and towards the future, and to showcase some of the most [insane performances ever devised by human minds](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjHJneVonE&t=1m43s).\n\nThe definition of the \"Euro\" prefix has become increasingly dubious. The last contest's winners, and the location of the event this year, is Israel, and the competition has been graced for the past four contests by none other than... [Australia](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/10/eurovision-song-contest-invites-australia-to-join-worlds-biggest-party).\n\nIt isn't all silly fun and games, though: the contest is rife with controversies about [national prejudices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest#Political_and_geographical_voting) and [vote-rigging attempts](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/feb/06/eurovision-song-contest-vote-rigging), and it was even used as [a signal to start](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_1974#Incidents) the [1974 Carnation Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnation_Revolution) that overthrew the Portuguese fascist regime.\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is at the time a member of the European Union?**\n\nThis question will close after the second semi-final on May 16th 2019, but before the final on May 18th 2019.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1611, 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The direct-to-consumer personal genomics industry [has entered an exponential growth phase](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1). \n\nAncestryDNA is one service in this industry. It is offered by [Ancestry.com](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancestry.com), a genealogy website with Mormon roots. The AncestryDNA database reached 10 million individuals at some point over the summer, [a fact advertised on their website](https://www.ancestry.com/corporate/about-ancestry/company-facts). And [a press release four days ago](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181129005208/en/Ancestry-Breaks-November-Sales-Record) (November 29th 2018) states that they have sold \"14 million DNA kits\", although it's not clear if this number has a one-to-one relationship with the number of people whose genetic information is 'in their database'. (From experience, there can be quite some time between buying a kit and your results being accessible.)\n\nAncestryDNA is also stepping on the toes of more human biology–oriented services such as 23andMe – it recently launched a product called [AncestryDNA Traits](https://www.ancestry.com/cs/offers/traitsadd?ucdmid=05955548-0006-0000-0000-000000000000&tg=E25d6e79-60a5-465d-92d6-4bd27adb8718), which attempts to quantify your genetic propensity to curly hair, a cleft chin, and other such frivolous characteristics. \n\nWhile customers may buy their kits simply to find out what percent Native American they are, the growth of direct-to-consumer genomics has broader implications for [medical research](https://www.23andme.com/publications/for-scientists/), [criminal justice][yaniv] and [family relationships](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/dna-tests-can-reveal-paternity-surprises.html).\n\n[yaniv] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uRH2aptd91oQjvKi4pHDpRfiS6RjNva9QNzp8-dXRJk/edit#gid=0 (Spreadsheet of criminal cases solved by long-range familial matching of genetic data. Maintained by Yaniv Erlich, CSO of MyHeritage. https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1032700504911081473 )\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Before July 1st 2019, will Ancestry.com announce that they have 'stored' or 'tested' (or similar language) the genetic information of at least 20 million individuals?**\n\n----- \n\nDetails:\n\n* [Credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), materials on the official Ancestry.com website, and press releases or documentation unambiguously attributed to Ancestry.com or its official subsidiaries can be used for positive resolution\n\n* AncestryDNA refers often to the number of people 'tested' or to 'kits sold'; I assume that this is partly because the matter of whether they 'have' or 'own' the data is a fairly complicated legal matter. It seems that AncestryDNA [owns 'licenses' over the genetic data of the individuals who sign up to the service](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ancestry-dna-steal-own/), and the individuals themselves maintain ownership over their own genetic data. For this reason, it's hard to predict precisely what language they will use to describe the number of people 'in their database'. Fortunately, the precise verb they use in relation to the number of individuals will probably not lead to contestable ambiguity in the question resolution. But with regards to the matter of 'kits sold', see below:\n\n* The statement used to confirm positive resolution should ideally be focused on the number of *people*; if the statement mentions instead the *number of kits sold*, and it is not unambiguously clear that the same number of people have been 'tested' by AncestryDNA or that their genetic information is 'in the database', or similar language indicating that they have actually generated the digitised genetic data of this number of people, then the statement cannot be used for positive resolution, unless the community consensus decides otherwise, for instance due to the statement's context\n\n* In the event that Ancestry.com in some way 'acquires' another genetic database, and the new number of individuals 'in AncestryDNA's database' goes above 20 million, the question resolves positive only if these new individuals are somehow integrated into the system, for instance such that these new individuals are searchable in AncestryDNA's genetic relative–finding service\n\n* If Ancestry.com starts offering a service which [allows people to upload onto their site](https://support.ancestry.com/s/question/0D515000027ncX3CAI/uploading-raw-data-from-23andme-to-ancestrycom) genetic data generated from other sources, in the manner of [other services like MyHeritage](https://www.myheritage.com/dna/upload), any statement used to support positive resolution must convey unambiguously that the number mentioned is the number of individuals whose digitised genetic data was generated by, from DNA samples gathered by, Ancestry.com, its subsidiaries, or registered contractors", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1554035918.80198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1554035918.80198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This year, [Fulham F.C.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulham_F.C.) was promoted to the Premier League, the top tier of the English football league system.\n\nIt's not going well for them so far. With 14 matches played out of 38, they are [currently placed at the bottom of the table](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/table), having lost 10 of their games. \n\nIf they end the season in the [bottom three teams of twenty, they will be relegated back to the Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League#Promotion_and_relegation).\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will Fulham F.C. be placed within the bottom three positions of the English Premier League at the end of the 2018–19 season, after any [potential play-off matches](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League#Competition) to decide ties?**\n\nThis question closes before matchday 29, leaving ten matches to be played by every team.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1551401105.49393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], 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null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1607, "title": "Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?", "created_at": "2018-12-01T23:54:58.004980Z", "open_time": "2018-12-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-07T01:34:00.494134Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-07T01:34:00.494134Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-30T20:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-30T20:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-06-30T20:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Denisovans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denisovan) are a clade of hominins discovered in 2009. They are fascinating, unusual and mysterious: \n\nFirstly, they are the first ancient hominin whose existence was inferred not by analysis of fossil features, but [by analysing DNA](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature08976) – [from a pinky finger bone](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-hominin-species/). Secondly, all confirmed Denisovan samples are teeth and fragments of bone found only in a single cave in Siberia. Thirdly, DNA derived from Denisovans or their close relatives makes up around [5% of the genomes of many Melanesian and Aboriginal Australian groups](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2163910-our-ancestors-mated-with-the-mystery-denisovan-people-twice/), and [a lower but non-zero proportion for other Asians as well as Amerindians](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982216302470?via%3Dihub). Fourthly, the genetic adaptation of Tibetans and Sherpas to high-altitude living was achieved by [at least one Denisovan-derived variant](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/07/tibetans-inherited-high-altitude-gene-ancient-human). Fifthly, an astounding discovery was presented earlier in 2018 in the form of a [first-generation hybrid between a Neanderthal mother and a Denisovan father](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/24/denisovan-neanderthal-hybrid-denny-dna-finder-project). \n\nIncluding the hybrid, [the genetic data of only five Denisovans has been published to date](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denisovan#Fossils). This question asks the following:\n\n**Between January 1st and June 30th 2019 inclusive, will a scientific paper be published describing genetic data from a new Denisova hominin?**\n\n----- \n\nDetails:\n\n* The genetic data must be from a new individual, and thus cannot be a previously described individual sequenced to higher coverage\n\n* The full genetic data for the individual must be described in the paper as being at least 40% Denisovan in ancestry. For instance, a Denisovan mitochondrial genome will fulfil resolution criteria, as will nuclear DNA from another first-generation hybrid. \n\n * Edge case: if the individual is described as having (fully) Denisovan mitochondrial DNA but < 40% nuclear Denisovan DNA, this individual will not be considered a \"Denisovan\"\n\n* If the individual is described in the paper as a \"Denisovan relative\" rather than a \"Denisovan\", this will not fulfil resolution criteria\n\n* The paper must describe the results of at least one \"analysis\" of the Denisovan genetic data; if the data, or an analysis of the data, is described briefly as \"in review\" or \"unpublished\", this will not fulfil resolution criteria\n\n* If under 5,000 bases are called for the individual, this will not fulfil resolution criteria \n\n* The genetic material must be unambiguously assigned to a single individual, thus excluding metagenomic data such as that extracted from sediment\n\n* The scientific paper must be published in a \"mainstream\" journal, such that it follows the definition of a Metaculus [\"credible source\"](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-questions)\n\n * Preprints on [bioRxiv](https://www.biorxiv.org/) or other preprint repositories will not fulfil resolution criteria\n\n* The publish date must be between the dates listed; if the article has a second, earlier date than the published date that is described as \"early access\", \"published online at\" or similar, this date cannot be used to fulfil resolution criteria", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546226327.720263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546226327.720263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], 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"category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1605, "title": "Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?", "created_at": "2018-12-01T15:07:31.386047Z", "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-04T19:23:20.618114Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-04T19:23:20.618114Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-15T04:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-15T04:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-15T04:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-13T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-13T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[reddit](https://www.reddit.com/) is a social news aggregator and the [21st most visited site globally](https://www.alexa.com/topsites). Users submit links, images or text to 'subreddit' communities on the site which are then voted and commented on by other users. A score are given for each submission that has some relationship to the number of 'upvotes' minus the number of 'downvotes'.\n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**Will the \"top submissions over the last 24 hours\" on https://www.reddit.com/r/all/top/?t=day include a submission with a score of at least 100,000 on December 15th 2018?**\n\n-----\n\nDetails:\n\n* To counter vote manipulation, reddit applies a form of 'fuzzing' to each post's score, such that the precise value shown varies slightly on each refresh. This means that different users see different scores for the same post. To prevent ambiguity in the resolution, the scores of the \"top submissions over the last 24 hours\" will be defined as **the scores shown on the [most recent snapshot of the site on archive.org](https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.reddit.com/r/all/top/) with a listed time after December 14th 2018 23:59 GMT**.\n\n* archive.org has produced at least one snapshot of that page on most individual days over the past few months. However, there is a chance that no snapshot will be produced on December 15th (GMT), so it's possible that the actual snapshot used for the resolution will have been captured one or more days after that date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1544709520.719437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1544709520.719437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18999999999999995, 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.7778823311270946 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.539066693473018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1544688071.279241, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16275108418608142, 0.8372489158139186 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1604, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Climate GC to cause (near) extinction", "url_title": "Climate GC to cause (near) extinction", "slug": "climate-gc-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-12-01T02:09:32.854851Z", "published_at": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T05:22:40.622310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 194, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:55:08.533483Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1604, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2018-12-01T02:09:32.854851Z", "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-05T15:22:34.528000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-05T15:22:34.528000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\n[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\n\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nHence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\n\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \n\nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management) which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \n\nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.", "resolution_criteria": "In an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/\n), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\n\n**If a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\n- The question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n\n- It resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n\n- It resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n\n- It resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n\n- The question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) *but* the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759036950.216933, "end_time": 1786764844.024, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759036950.216933, "end_time": 1786764844.024, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08936953720113519 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.193137703932122, 10.135919359463836, 1.9372779019985167, 2.5201655121189575, 0.03169706481112915, 1.7070830343224346, 5.425743306056552e-06, 5.2410350341014054e-05, 1.1118316018800408e-05, 0.3235232170849212, 1.5509751043476243, 0.0009797596903721136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09798059576431407, 0.09003758335344238, 0.0, 0.0038883024777573334, 0.0, 0.0005698131258375933, 0.0, 0.0022195744999974143, 0.0, 0.003239397070277991, 0.27620791805834094, 0.008656881407335282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039447238756011, 0.0, 0.006210945916375853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9645134521398429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8649381653508834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4413126710350404, 0.0, 0.06581695922415184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001052690026931639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10672963457071324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07767417787396497 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290195.59019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290195.59019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9975335946783039, 0.0024664053216960826 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 347, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\n[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\n\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nHence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\n\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \n\nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management) which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \n\nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming." }, { "id": 1603, "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?", "short_title": "MBS Next King of Saudi Arabia", "url_title": "MBS Next King of Saudi Arabia", "slug": "mbs-next-king-of-saudi-arabia", "author_id": 106736, "author_username": "nagolinc", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-30T20:36:30.170836Z", "published_at": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.363014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1603, "title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?", "created_at": "2018-11-30T20:36:30.170836Z", "open_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-05T15:00:50.400054Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-05T15:00:50.400054Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\n\n***Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? ***\n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** if Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia, according to credible media reports.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if:\n\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577840176.351257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": 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"description": "" }, { "id": 1602, "title": "Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-citizen-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-be-declared-a-2019-nobel-prize-winner", "author_id": 103713, "author_username": "KrisMoore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-30T11:40:49.949668Z", "published_at": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.104037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-14T17:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-14T17:52:00Z", "open_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": 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"actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-14T17:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-10-14T17:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The People's Republic of China (PRC) is the most populous country in the world, with [1.4 billion inhabitants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_(United_Nations)). It is also the [second-largest economy in the world by GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)).\n\nHowever, the number of people who have won Nobel Prizes and who were PRC citizens at the time they won their prize is very small: under the strictest definition, only [three people meet these criteria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_Nobel_laureates). They were awarded prizes in 2010, 2012 and 2015. \n\nThis question asks the following:\n\n**When the winners of the 2019 Nobel Prizes are officially announced, will one of the them be a current citizen of the PRC?**\n\n-----\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* In addition to the Nobel Prizes in Chemistry, Literature, Peace, Physics, and Physiology or Medicine, the **Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is also considered a \"Nobel Prize\"**\n\n* Both of the [two Nobel Prizes in Literature that will be awarded in 2019](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-04/urgent-nobel-literature-prize-will-not-be-awarded-this-year) will be considered as a \"2019 Nobel Prize\", unless the organisation specifically names one of them as being a 2018 Nobel Prize\n\n* A Chinese citizen being one of two or three people who share a Nobel Prize in 2019 will meet resolution criteria\n\n* If an *organisation* of more than three people wins a Nobel Prize – as occurred for the [Peace Prizes in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Nobel_Peace_Prize_laureates) – it will **not** meet the criteria for positive resolution, even if the organisation is based in China and staffed entirely by Chinese citizens\n\n* In the unlikely event that a new Prize category is awarded in 2019, and that this Prize is officially listed as a Prize on the [Nobel Prize website](https://www.nobelprize.org/), this Prize will also count as a \"Nobel Prize\", even if, as for Economic Sciences, the Prize is described as a \"Nobel Memorial Prize\" or similar\n\n\n-----\n\nConsiderations:\n\n* It is difficult to simultaneously hold Chinese citizenship and citizenship of another country. According to the [Nationality Law of the PRC](http://www.china.org.cn/english/LivinginChina/184710.htm):\n\n * \"Any Chinese national who has settled abroad and who has been naturalized as a foreign national or has acquired foreign nationality of his own free will shall automatically lose Chinese nationality.\"\n\n * \"Any person born abroad whose parents are both Chinese nationals and *[sic - I presume \"or\" would be more accurate]* one of whose parents is a Chinese national shall have Chinese nationality. But a person whose parents are both Chinese nationals and have both settled abroad, or one of whose parents is a Chinese national and has settled abroad, and who has acquired foreign nationality at birth shall not have Chinese nationality.\"\n\n * \"Settled abroad\" seems to mean [\"have established permanent residence in a country that isn't the PRC\"](https://www.quora.com/Under-Article-5-of-the-Nationality-Law-of-the-Peoples-Republic-of-China-what-does-settled-abroad-mean-exactly).\n\n* As mentioned above, only three Nobel laureates were PRC citizens at the time of their award. However, [the two winners of the 1957 Nobel Prize in Physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_Nobel_laureates#Laureates) represent an interesting edge case. They were both born in the Republic of China, the state that ruled over mainland China prior to the PRC, and were citizens of that country. However, they moved abroad a few years before the [formation of the PRC was declared by Mao Zedong in 1949](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China#People's_Republic_of_China_%281949%E2%80%93present%29), and thus did not acquire PRC citizenship. Technically, they remained citizens of the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_the_Republic_of_China#Since_1949).\n\n* The [process for nominating people for a Nobel Prize has already begun](https://www.nobelprize.org/images/53586-large.jpg). If the linked schedule is correct for this year, winners will be announced by each Nobel Committee in early October 2019, and the award ceremony will be held in December 2019. The resolution criteria are focused on the *time of the announcement*, rather than the time of the award ceremony.\n\n* The names of nominees cannot be publicly revealed by the Nobel Committees for each prize until [\"50 years later\"](https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/redirector/?redir=archive/); however, people who nominate others for a Nobel Prize [sometimes do divulge who they have nominated, particularly for the Peace Prize](https://www.esquire.com/food-drink/a25317292/chef-jose-andres-nobel-peace-prize-nomination/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1564597773.790973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1564597773.790973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1601, "title": "Will poker player Alati win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-poker-player-alati-win-a-100k-bet-by-staying-in-a-dark-room-for-30-days", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-11-30T04:27:27.601145Z", "published_at": "2018-11-29T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.577704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-29T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-12T05:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-12T05:19:00Z", "open_time": "2018-11-29T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1601, "title": "Will poker player Alati win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?", "created_at": "2018-11-30T04:27:27.601145Z", "open_time": "2018-11-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-30T14:49:54.627510Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-30T14:49:54.627510Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-12T05:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-12T05:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-12T05:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The title says it all. Per [this story](https://www.pokernews.com/news/2018/11/rory-young-100k-isolation-prop-32764.htm?itm_content=pn-hp-hero-1) for example, the bet is on between Alati and Young. For Alati to win he must\n\n> remain in a dark room, chosen and set up by Young. He'd have no access to light, human interaction or any electronic entertainment. Food would be delivered at randomized intervals every three to six days, with six days worth of provisions given at a time. Alati would have a yoga mat and enough room to exercise but not much else.\n\n*** Will Alati do it? ***\n\nResolves positive if Young pays Alati, negative if Alati pays Young, ambiguous if full payment is not made by either by April 1.\n\nPer [this story](https://www.pokernews.com/news/2018/11/prop-bet-dark-room-30-days-32741.htm) Alati entered the room around 11/23, so we'll set a close time of 12/20 and resolve time of 1/1.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1544586628.642352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1544586628.642352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5424515489007629 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1485111384962616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2018-11-29T22:14:35.015240Z", "open_time": "2018-12-02T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-12-03T12:58:42.028959Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-12-03T12:58:42.028959Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-04-06T01:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-04-06T01:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-04-06T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Louis C.K. is a comedian known for his work in stand-up, television, and film. His stand-up comedy is critically acclaimed; in 2017, Rolling Stone listed him as the [\"#4 best stand-up comic of all time\"](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/50-best-stand-up-comics-of-all-time-126359/louis-c-k-2-105836/), the highest position they awarded to a living comedian.\n\nMultiple women accused him of sexual misconduct as part of the broader [Me Too campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me_Too_movement) or [\"Weinstein effect\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weinstein_effect). In [November 2017](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/nov/10/louis-ck-statement-sexual-misconduct-allegations-these-stories-are-true), he released a statement corroborating the claims, saying that \"these stories are true\" and that he would \"step back and take a long time to listen\".\n\nAfter withdrawing from public life for nine months, in [August 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_C.K.#Return_to_comedy) he performed an un-billed, 'surprise' stand-up set at New York's Comedy Cellar. In [October]((https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/arts/louis-ck-comedy-cellar.html)), he performed at the Comedy Cellar again, but this time his name was advertised outside. And earlier this month, on [November 8th](https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2018/nov/08/louis-ck-paris-female-comic), he appeared on stage at a venue in Paris, performing a set that reportedly lasted over an hour.\n\nAlthough his first public appearance in August was apparently met with a \"standing ovation\", his surprisingly quick return has earned negative reactions from [comedians](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-45330560), [audience members](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/a23562679/louis-ck-second-stand-up-show-comedy-cellar-policy/) and [opinion writers](https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2018/08/what-does-redemption-actually-mean/568768/) alike. In spite of this outcry, C.K. has been steadily raising his public profile. This question asks the following:\n\n**Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up comedy special before 2021?**\n\nA \"stand-up comedy special\" is defined here as a piece of recorded media that fulfils the following criteria:\n\n* Total run time of at least 30 minutes\n\n* Stand-up comedy – that is, a single comedian performing to a live audience with the primary intention of making them laugh – is performed for at least 1/2 of the total run time (minus credits and intro)\n\n* At least 3/4 of the stand-up comedy appearing in the piece of media is performed by C.K.\n\n-----\n\n*Details: the recording has to be intentionally released by C.K. or his professional representation; the recording has to be accessible to 'laypeople' who don't work in the media industry; it has to be a recording of previously unreleased material; it does not necessarily have to cost money to view; the official release date in at least one jurisdiction has to be before January 1st 2021; and it can be in audio or video format, so a [stand-up comedy album](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comedy_album) will also count as a \"special\" here. The criteria are intended to exclude \"showcases\" in which C.K. is one performer of many, documentaries or other formats featuring C.K. in which he performs a small amount of stand-up, re-releases of previous material, recordings in which C.K. opens for another comedian who is the main act, surreptitious recordings of live performances, and leaks or limited releases of specials before 2021 when the official release date is after 31st December 2020.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577800788.489453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577800788.489453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5356276226833104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30877468606497765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028558647718838943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.709368169038228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8789516174478045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13224004390136815, 0.9409563951022198, 0.0, 0.6892140578280332, 0.5683229184737245, 0.011058522686470973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46631380150936536, 0.0, 0.03884893072366861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6036168095611774, 0.0, 1.490882369869487, 2.7896009510776962, 0.1711062530076502, 0.0, 0.7342121069681415, 0.2054919791069632, 0.2875923504881499, 0.0, 0.24893669523764367, 0.35712555182165845, 1.1007211485865207, 0.1351711868856007, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.9064629435748576, 0.26950061497143907, 0.0, 0.020500370748786623, 0.08934416393676485, 0.0, 0.06499193882615723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.201612348357266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057208863054134, 0.2337903870527259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1709383798830383 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.765709213753829, "coverage": 0.9999489468834982, "baseline_score": 35.67069963022043, "spot_peer_score": 34.785528117657286, "peer_archived_score": 6.765709213753829, "baseline_archived_score": 35.67069963022043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.785528117657286 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577120174.932424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577120174.932424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6968545050206182, 0.3031454949793818 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
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