Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=580
{ "count": 5893, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=560", "results": [ { "id": 37497, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Ohio enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship?", "short_title": "By July 1, 2025, will OH enact legislation expanding voter citizenship rqurment?", "url_title": "By July 1, 2025, will OH enact legislation expanding voter citizenship rqurment?", "slug": "by-july-1-2025-will-oh-enact-legislation-expanding-voter-citizenship-rqurment", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.363761Z", "published_at": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.020992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36857, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Ohio enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.363761Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T15:20:20.694142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the state of Ohio enacts legislation requiring voters to provide proof of US citizenship beyond the requirements at the time of this question, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subset of voters being required to provide such proof would count (for example if it only applied to first-time voter registrants or creating a new requirement for mail-in voters). An example of a bill that would count is [Senate Bill 153](https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb153). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. Please note that under Ohio law, a bill is considered enacted \"after both houses have passed and agreed on identical bills.\" ([Source](https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/chapter-5-enacting-legislation-10021971.pdf))", "post_id": 37497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746446326.713034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746446326.713034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16235224792872596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 1.3127501106801933, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 1.042303061899041, 1.2462571355730265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote)" }, { "id": 37478, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-indian-armed-forces-execute-a-kinetic-attack-in-pakistan-proper-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.076105Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.907872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-13T12:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36838, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.076105Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-13T12:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-13T12:57:30.928722Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "France 24: [India, Pakistan exchange gunfire for second day as relations plummet after attack](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250426-indian-army-says-new-exchange-of-gunfire-with-pakistan)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025 the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack on targets in one of the following provinces of Pakistan: Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab, or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.", "fine_print": "To count, an attack must be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using explosive weaponry or physical violence. Non-kinetic actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 37478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746797572.338358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746797572.338358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6223034110885678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06601997791471219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3209730228171763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1021196156523678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05223036182808179, 0.8909449659417962, 0.7596834809085393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.765713632902226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4231739162326067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.535409599657501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2098594291784695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "France 24: [India, Pakistan exchange gunfire for second day as relations plummet after attack](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250426-indian-army-says-new-exchange-of-gunfire-with-pakistan)" }, { "id": 37477, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-word-tariffs-disappear-from-the-front-print-pages-of-the-new-york-times-and-wall-street-journal-by-june-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.070353Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.565635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36837, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.070353Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T17:54:59.477128Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, after \\[OPEN DATE] and before June 1, 2025, the words, \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\", do not appear on the print front page of The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question:\n\n* The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper)\n* Wall Street Journal:\t [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage)\n\n***\n\n<sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for April 14, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup>", "fine_print": "Grammar is not relevant (e.g. \"TARIFF\" will suffice to prevent a \"No\" resolution).\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, it does not have to be in a title.", "post_id": 37477, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746786620.730806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18248175182481757 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746786620.730806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18248175182481757 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19001140288695442 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1771314995648305, 0.14435670794403951, 0.7925366622054263, 0.0, 0.43007743157759487, 2.938254956488732, 0.7470313596766492, 0.06070567431515629, 0.0, 0.0, 3.980071079511151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8909449659417962, 0.0, 1.7380865405310977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015999109858631472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3064043000739063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23747616990092357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07781789323204355, 0.0, 0.20672425844473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006900644262869463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06879719716150491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46266801304175437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3321977744619591, 0.16702785955340174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.4452407133484, "peer_score": 19.842952350888847, "coverage": 0.985958937075403, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985958937075403, "spot_peer_score": 19.827835658050624, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 75.4452407133484, "peer_archived_score": 19.842952350888847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.827835658050624, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 37476, "title": "Will GoPro file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-gopro-file-for-bankruptcy-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.059984Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.308885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36836, "title": "Will GoPro file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.059984Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:13:44.399049Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[GoPro Announces Fourth Quarter and 2024 Results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500435/000150043525000003/gpro2024-12x31exh991xer.htm)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if GoPro, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. 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Here’s How.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-ready-to-blockade-taiwan-here-s-how/ar-AA1BvnW8)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses the People's Republic of China of blockading at least one of Taiwan's seaports without consent from the Taiwanese government in Taipei.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746567019.755354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19666666666666668 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2293312474847263 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746567019.755354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19666666666666668 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2293312474847263 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8033333333333333, 0.19666666666666668 ], "means": [ 0.18078215714913334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.0, 0.38637747064730565, 0.007535015292961775, 0.34029419999880384, 0.2447305082056486, 0.15134482788356746, 0.3137949917413191, 0.0, 0.6683702162141048, 3.787351271006041, 0.8929452323661959, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0604806447258907, 0.6299942137646893, 3.314981243542837, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.7961717265997972, 0.0, 2.5540447698107744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26054313063614865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0604017355973106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.74387236116674, "peer_score": 3.8742056061656847, "coverage": 0.9845999318030145, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9845999318030145, "spot_peer_score": 0.4111621397779435, "spot_baseline_score": 68.40706457340808, "baseline_archived_score": 71.74387236116674, "peer_archived_score": 3.8742056061656847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.4111621397779435, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.40706457340808 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "WSJ via MSN: [China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan. Here’s How.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-ready-to-blockade-taiwan-here-s-how/ar-AA1BvnW8)" }, { "id": 37447, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-white-house-admit-at-least-one-ap-reporter-or-photographer-to-an-oval-office-media-event-before-july-1-2025-in-compliance-with-judge-trevor-mcfaddens-april-8-preliminary-injunction", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.564707Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.734242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36807, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.564707Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:19:34.457064Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, at least one journalist or photographer employed by the Associated Press (AP) is admitted to an Oval Office media event hosted by the White House, as evidenced by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or confirmation from the Associated Press.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if, before July 1, 2025, no AP reporter or photographer has been admitted to any such event.", "fine_print": "A media event refers to any scheduled or impromptu event in the Oval Office to which members of the press are invited to report or take photographs.\n\n“Admitted” means physically granted access to the Oval Office for the purpose of reporting or photography, not merely allowed on White House grounds.\n\nThe individual must be employed by the Associated Press and formally affiliated with the organization.\n\nEvidence may include but is not limited to:\n\n* Press pool reports listing AP personnel\n* White House press office access logs\n* Statements from the AP or other credible sources", "post_id": 37447, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746552620.030004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746552620.030004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44621772985932573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 0.08098405735731518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.526247751814955, 2.466492682064172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.18903218234793223, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.6299942137646893, 1.6972393448852205, 0.0900442809667568, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7908573157420926, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.587410757752465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.789479383052537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.256831540495285, 0.0, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3223899909966117, 0.2144400238150099, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6169165796920074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events." } ] }
