Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=580
{ "count": 5530, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=560", "results": [ { "id": 35685, "title": "Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-or-elon-musk-tweet-x-post-about-the-diversity-visa-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:18.361689Z", "published_at": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:58.837862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35135, "title": "Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:18.361689Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:28.087559Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recent tweet [here](https://x.com/fentasyl/status/1894451029934039492) from a Twitter/X account followed by Elon Musk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025 either Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet using the exact words \"diversity visa\" as shown through [this search](https://x.com/search?f=top&q=%22diversity%20visa%22%20(from%3Arealdonaldtrump%20OR%20from%3Aelonmusk)&src=typed_query) on Twitter/X, which will be checked by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If a tweet (now renamed to X post) containing the phrase is seen by a Metaculus Admin at that time, this question resolves as **Yes**. If not, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741164963.68102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19933333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741164963.68102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19933333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8006666666666666, 0.19933333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.1785952775923236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.947210517040647, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5721935028440046, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 1.4387711247852137, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6672027243250322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46343562596728616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.14410407955134, "peer_score": 1.349447985211806, "coverage": 0.959027309152815, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.959027309152815, "spot_peer_score": -1.4078714478016758, "spot_baseline_score": 67.92736503223908, "baseline_archived_score": 69.14410407955134, "peer_archived_score": 1.349447985211806, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4078714478016758, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.92736503223908 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recent tweet [here](https://x.com/fentasyl/status/1894451029934039492) from a Twitter/X account followed by Elon Musk." }, { "id": 35684, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action mentioning the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-president-trump-issue-a-new-presidential-action-mentioning-the-diversity-visa-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:18.329565Z", "published_at": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:52.379418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35134, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action mentioning the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:18.329565Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:56:22.060737Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "National Immigration Forum: [Trump’s First 100 Days: Potential Immigration Actions](https://immigrationforum.org/article/trumps-first-100-days-potential-immigration-actions/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, President Donald J. Trump issues a [presidential action](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) mentioning the \"Diversity Visa\" (using exactly those words). If this does not occur before that date, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To count, the presidential action must be published and publicly accessible (likely appearing on the presidential actions section of the White House website) before the specified time. A verbal statement or other written announcement besides a presidential action (for example a post on social media), is not sufficient.", "post_id": 35684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741164921.52963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09000000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.223 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741164921.52963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09000000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.223 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17138195847692686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3315487681516363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.6753507208774424, 1.4349378106836834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6869937429455594, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9353587733660349, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7280913951951714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.932802049766552, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "National Immigration Forum: [Trump’s First 100 Days: Potential Immigration Actions](https://immigrationforum.org/article/trumps-first-100-days-potential-immigration-actions/)" }, { "id": 35683, "title": "Will the US State Department's Diversity Visa page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-state-departments-diversity-visa-page-still-be-online-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:17.931858Z", "published_at": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:12.351017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35133, "title": "Will the US State Department's Diversity Visa page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:17.931858Z", "open_time": "2025-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T02:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T02:23:22.982795Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-05T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Donald Trump's 2017 tweet discussing the DV program](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925684982307348480)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Step 1 Submit an Entry page with instructions for registerning for the Diversity Immigrant Visa (DV) Program is at [this location](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-submit-entry1.html) when attempted to be accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741164816.846173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9390000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741164816.846173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9390000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06099999999999994, 0.9390000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.9235517117508841 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Donald Trump's 2017 tweet discussing the DV program](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925684982307348480)" }, { "id": 35665, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-fourth-person-solve-a-rubiks-cube-in-less-than-344-seconds-before-march-31-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:16.547351Z", "published_at": "2025-03-03T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:28.116077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35115, "title": "Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:16.547351Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:45:36.369145Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 31, 2025, Eastern Time, the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) reports that a person besides Max Park, Ruihang Xu, and Yiheng Wang has achieved a single time below 3.44s at solving the 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube at an [official event](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/competitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741017427.792524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1525 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.496 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741017427.792524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1525 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.496 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37232031189530185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20040048597024865, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 1.378748230052289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6707135414768655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6761370961605792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25190162765868773, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.66255066264662, "peer_score": 6.276325633709115, "coverage": 0.8960929705699285, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8960929705699285, "spot_peer_score": 2.522718216789515, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 48.66255066264662, "peer_archived_score": 6.276325633709115, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.522718216789515, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe Rubik's Cube was invented in 1974, released in 1980, and had its first world 'speedcubing' championship [just 8 years later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedcubing#History). The winner achieved a world record of 22.95 seconds. Since then, [17 more people](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) have held this record, lowering the time to below 4 seconds. Speedcubers use memorized algorithms to solve the Rubik's Cube and top performances rely on choosing the fastest option and executing it flawlessly.\n\nAs of January 17, 2025, three performances are separated by the rest. While 20 people [have achieved](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) a time below 4s, only 3 have achieved one below 3.44s:\n\n* Max Park in 2023 (3.13s)\n* Ruihang Xu (许瑞航) in 2024 (3.24s)\n* Yiheng Wang (王艺衡) in 2024 (3.27s)" }, { "id": 35664, "title": "Will \"FYRE IGNITE\" tickets still be available to Fyre Festival 2 on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-fyre-ignite-tickets-still-be-available-to-fyre-festival-2-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:16.510557Z", "published_at": "2025-03-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:38.173134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35114, "title": "Will \"FYRE IGNITE\" tickets still be available to Fyre Festival 2 on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:16.510557Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:19.790352Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NY Times: [A Fyre Festival Sequel? What Could Go Wrong?](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/style/fyre-festival-2-tickets-dates-location.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are entry-level \"FYRE IGNITE\" tickets available at [this link](https://tickets.fyre.mx/event/fyre-festival-2-2025/package?e=DZn&pg=vPao&acd=) when checked by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as **No**. Additionally, if they become unavailable before then (subject to visual verification by Metaculus), the question immediately resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the name of the ticket class changes, it will not affect resolution. The \"FYRE IGNITE\" class of tickets is defined as having the following benefit, which will be used to define the ticket class: \"Access to the festival grounds on Isla Mujeres and the Water Stage. Transportation will be provided on Isla Mujeres from our preferred hotel locations and other gathering points on our provided shuttle service.\"", "post_id": 35664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741006268.359401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4956666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741006268.359401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4956666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.725 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6230665252558781 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6750799613468215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2350658828250527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2152825354849168, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.40213785952358283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9471895325192776, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3682209671937842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.85788982674704, "peer_score": 9.75001948650921, "coverage": 0.9639659441841973, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9639659441841973, "spot_peer_score": 6.909416806205742, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 39.85788982674704, "peer_archived_score": 9.75001948650921, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.909416806205742, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Times: [A Fyre Festival Sequel? What Could Go Wrong?](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/style/fyre-festival-2-tickets-dates-location.html)" }, { "id": 35663, "title": "Will King Green defeat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 313 on March 8, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-king-green-defeat-mauricio-ruffy-at-ufc-313-on-march-8-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:16.187707Z", "published_at": "2025-03-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:27.109326Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-09T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", 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"2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A concern arising from the vast economic potential of advanced AI is that the countries where the leading models are developed reap most of the benefit, [<u>increasing the wealth gap between nations</u>](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/three-reasons-why-ai-may-widen-global-inequality).\n\nOne possibility to address this issue is the establishment of a mechanism for redistribution of benefits of AI. A stark example of such a mechanism is in the area of nuclear technology, where the [<u>Non-Proliferation Treaty</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) establishes a fixed set of nuclear weapons countries, while promoting cooperation with non-nuclear ones for peaceful uses of nuclear tech (e.g. power generation, medical isotopes). Other mechanisms for benefit distribution have arisen; the OECD promotes [tax treaties](https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/beps-multilateral-instrument.html) that enable international cooperation against tax avoidance, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea provides for [benefit sharing from seabed resources](https://www.isa.org.jm/equitable-sharing-of-benefits/), and health initiatives like the [GAVI Alliance](https://www.gavi.org/) and [The Global Fund](https://www.theglobalfund.org) operate as public-private partnerships including high-profile donors such as the Gates Foundation.\n\nThis question focuses on whether some mechanism will exist to spread benefits of AI in a globally-coordinated way.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, during 2029, any transfers occur under a global mechanism for sharing benefits of AI, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "A \"global mechanism for sharing benefits of AI\" needs to:\n\n* receive resources originating from the use of highly advanced AI systems.\n* be a coordinated effort involving at least two of the three countries with the most advanced AI systems as of the beginning of 2029; a country counts if its national government directs taxes from AI companies to a shared fund, or if companies contribute directly to such a fund under a commitment lasting at least 3 years.\n* explicitly target benefit recipients based on socioeconomic factors (e.g. income), individual or country-wide.\n* provide the benefits to recipients unconditioned on payment or any other compensation to the AI companies involved; so a discounted subscription to a basic AI service plan with the expectation that some beneficiaries will upgrade to a higher plan does not qualify.", "post_id": 35600, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753423167.058386, "end_time": 1753509196.552976, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.037 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753423167.058386, "end_time": 1753509196.552976, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.037 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07688995845384422 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.179237263796331, 0.8493383397366877, 0.8051257630188648, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.6407103357440366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15365092212534687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A concern arising from the vast economic potential of advanced AI is that the countries where the leading models are developed reap most of the benefit, [<u>increasing the wealth gap between nations</u>](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/three-reasons-why-ai-may-widen-global-inequality).\n\nOne possibility to address this issue is the establishment of a mechanism for redistribution of benefits of AI. A stark example of such a mechanism is in the area of nuclear technology, where the [<u>Non-Proliferation Treaty</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) establishes a fixed set of nuclear weapons countries, while promoting cooperation with non-nuclear ones for peaceful uses of nuclear tech (e.g. power generation, medical isotopes). Other mechanisms for benefit distribution have arisen; the OECD promotes [tax treaties](https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/beps-multilateral-instrument.html) that enable international cooperation against tax avoidance, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea provides for [benefit sharing from seabed resources](https://www.isa.org.jm/equitable-sharing-of-benefits/), and health initiatives like the [GAVI Alliance](https://www.gavi.org/) and [The Global Fund](https://www.theglobalfund.org) operate as public-private partnerships including high-profile donors such as the Gates Foundation.\n\nThis question focuses on whether some mechanism will exist to spread benefits of AI in a globally-coordinated way." }, { "id": 35582, "title": "Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "FDA flu vaccine approval for 2025-2026?", "url_title": "FDA flu vaccine approval for 2025-2026?", "slug": "fda-flu-vaccine-approval-for-2025-2026", "author_id": 156496, "author_username": "ScienceMon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-27T23:28:31.556587Z", "published_at": "2025-03-02T21:39:18.603606Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-10T01:44:41.884576Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-02T21:39:18.603604Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-04T21:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35030, "title": "Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-27T23:28:31.556954Z", "open_time": "2025-03-04T21:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-08T21:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-08T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 26, 2025, the FDA unexpectedly canceled its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting that was scheduled for March 2025. This meeting is typically held annually to select the influenza virus strains to be included in the upcoming season's flu vaccines for the United States.\n\nThe FDA has maintained an uninterrupted annual approval process for seasonal influenza vaccines since 1973. Each year, the FDA follows a consistent timeline for approving updated flu vaccine formulations based on recommendations about which influenza strains are likely to circulate during the upcoming flu season. The strain selection process typically occurs in spring to give vaccine manufacturers sufficient time to produce shots for fall distribution.\n\nThe cancellation coincides with other significant changes in U.S. public health policy:\n\n* In January 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to begin withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO)\n* Federal health officials were subsequently ordered to stop communicating with the WHO\n* A CDC vaccine advisory committee meeting was also recently postponed", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the United States Food and Drug Administration approves at least one seasonal influenza vaccine formulation specifically for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025.\n\nThe question will resolve as **NO** if the FDA does not approve any seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 season before October 1, 2025.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For resolution purposes, a \"seasonal influenza vaccine\" refers to any vaccine formulation specifically developed for the 2025-2026 influenza season. This excludes previously approved vaccines that might be used off-label or as substitutes in the absence of a newly formulated vaccine.\n\nIf the FDA approves a multi-year influenza vaccine that explicitly covers the 2025-2026 season, this will count as a **YES** resolution.", "post_id": 35582, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752949410.503946, "end_time": 1754192693.292, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752949410.503946, "end_time": 1754192693.292, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4793858514019974 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 26, 2025, the FDA unexpectedly canceled its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting that was scheduled for March 2025. This meeting is typically held annually to select the influenza virus strains to be included in the upcoming season's flu vaccines for the United States.\n\nThe FDA has maintained an uninterrupted annual approval process for seasonal influenza vaccines since 1973. Each year, the FDA follows a consistent timeline for approving updated flu vaccine formulations based on recommendations about which influenza strains are likely to circulate during the upcoming flu season. The strain selection process typically occurs in spring to give vaccine manufacturers sufficient time to produce shots for fall distribution.\n\nThe cancellation coincides with other significant changes in U.S. public health policy:\n\n* In January 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to begin withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO)\n* Federal health officials were subsequently ordered to stop communicating with the WHO\n* A CDC vaccine advisory committee meeting was also recently postponed" }, { "id": 35578, "title": "¿Aumentará la riqueza media global por adulto en 2024 respecto a 2023?", "short_title": "¿Aumento de la riqueza media global por adulto?", "url_title": "¿Aumento de la riqueza media global por adulto?", "slug": "aumento-de-la-riqueza-media-global-por-adulto", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:10:18.414108Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:39:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:40.937707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:39:19Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 378, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35028, "title": "¿Aumentará la riqueza media global por adulto en 2024 respecto a 2023?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:10:18.414521Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "La [<u>World Inequality Database</u>](https://wid.world/) (WID) realiza un seguimiento de los indicadores de desigualdad y riqueza a nivel mundial. La \"Riqueza nacional media a valor de mercado por adulto\" mide la riqueza media por adulto en términos de valor de mercado, proporcionando información sobre los cambios económicos globales y la distribución de la riqueza. Esta métrica refleja cambios en las condiciones económicas, pero también dinámicas de redistribución/concentración de capital.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si la [<u>World Inequality Database</u>](https://wid.world/) (WID) estima que la \"[<u>Riqueza nacional media a valor de mercado por adulto</u>](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" para 2024 es superior a la de 2023. Se resolverá como **No** en caso contrario o si el valor es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi WID no publica datos de 2024 antes de la fecha de resolución, la pregunta será **anulada**.\n\n	•\tLa comparación se realizará con la cifra más reciente disponible correspondiente a 2023.", "post_id": 35578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753436190.740905, "end_time": 1753530893.998329, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753436190.740905, "end_time": 1753530893.998329, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9167306932183216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.005751961649463862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006598930764166012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014331742131264657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000843615062305273, 0.0877686047927087, 0.0014468521955227265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013567947413321504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020225459839239672, 0.0, 0.0025639848737358008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22167645154668464, 0.0, 0.024500473403933763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5930282712532673, 0.0, 0.02908432206837806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005138982067109621, 0.01938671766817531, 0.0021889815730467273, 0.0, 1.0181290782855588, 0.0, 1.1544321616161003e-05, 0.00536484149121345, 0.10061552150169698, 0.07943311899543565, 0.030772850360521714, 0.010471822495116637, 0.0864957579192425, 0.10897812967058758, 2.345440426060735, 0.015237982719367917, 0.0, 0.014023987556512345, 0.0003319859420018185, 2.8055733604863025, 0.25937319069800535, 1.5133359379225024, 1.0497096017331284, 1.0603410892675302, 3.4326581421190627, 1.6248346364234079, 0.5835852478847974, 0.7948460771548072, 5.272397248120191 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 655, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "La [<u>World Inequality Database</u>](https://wid.world/) (WID) realiza un seguimiento de los indicadores de desigualdad y riqueza a nivel mundial. La \"Riqueza nacional media a valor de mercado por adulto\" mide la riqueza media por adulto en términos de valor de mercado, proporcionando información sobre los cambios económicos globales y la distribución de la riqueza. Esta métrica refleja cambios en las condiciones económicas, pero también dinámicas de redistribución/concentración de capital." }, { "id": 35577, "title": "¿Superará el PIB nominal de India al de Japón a finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿PIB India > PIB Japón (2025)?", "url_title": "¿PIB India > PIB Japón (2025)?", "slug": "pib-india-pib-japon-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:07:40.352827Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:39:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:50.795004Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:39:08Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 285, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35027, "title": "Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:07:40.353162Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.", "fine_print": "* The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.", "post_id": 35577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753448436.228415, "end_time": 1753532152.528332, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753448436.228415, "end_time": 1753532152.528332, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8304688032137856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.003328040125100101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15397083938880127, 0.38998580368947083, 0.04126643327615333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04347448508865065, 0.0, 0.03306133657829917, 0.008514529804420452, 0.0, 0.0030304811269917893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002754872591564347, 0.0, 0.058173505772190166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002415814749629328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07835286367339403, 0.27456217655717285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00615471695613117, 0.001702826814562607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061796247063434964, 0.0, 0.02370504751833615, 0.0, 0.833747740522719, 1.305670811846575, 0.0, 0.06078126666215354, 0.0, 0.09870969415099816, 0.16569429246433282, 0.0, 0.5741395730732323, 0.0, 0.8727681330453514, 1.9824219105923513, 0.019271883131149765, 0.4006334864152171, 0.10572124473335753, 0.7604212826394864, 1.4383943122610705, 0.8241800154807628, 1.1061751810101286, 0.26294662796544555, 0.5574236253708439, 4.397549541293145, 0.08174766635531619, 0.47404355485875915, 0.060693773858830444, 0.263367499792157, 0.20752532230829765, 0.0002581139557349759, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6443123124403813 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 458, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power." }, { "id": 35576, "title": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?", "short_title": "Are the Top 5 in 2025 technology companies?", "url_title": "Are the Top 5 in 2025 technology companies?", "slug": "are-the-top-5-in-2025-technology-companies", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:05:44.452189Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:35.639114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:58Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 341, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35026, "title": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:05:44.452521Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The major tech companies, often referred to as FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), have dominated global market capitalization in recent years. As of February 2025, Apple leads with a market cap of $3.657 trillion, followed by Nvidia ($3.435 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.039 trillion). Amazon and Alphabet round out the top five. Notably, Saudi Aramco, a non-tech company, is ranked sixth, while Meta Platforms is ranked seventh.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025, the five largest global companies by market capitalization are in the technology sector, according to [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/). It will be answered as **No** if any of the top five are not considered technology companies.", "fine_print": "• For the purposes of this question, technology companies are those on CompaniesMarketCap's [ <u>Largest Tech Companies by Market Cap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tech/largest-tech-companies-by-market-cap/) list.\n\n• If CompaniesMarketCap stops publishing this data, an equivalent source showing global market capitalization ranking will be referenced.", "post_id": 35576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753358769.92348, "end_time": 1753466239.04146, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753358769.92348, "end_time": 1753466239.04146, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8900335266403656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.00015729509246470219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09373523053758119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34694270858469484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006263095864026362, 0.3235232170849212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07524703403355815, 0.0, 0.7456643082411099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.554378673738255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.289771214061272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0686614291591188, 0.002015423749593338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003270313350864077, 0.21174449669647075, 0.005226145903466135, 0.02243683494464587, 0.07198868345789122, 0.0016677752093335009, 1.3667854131766475, 0.16730883300349525, 0.0422284630664727, 0.006210945916375853, 0.10658316705872517, 2.259391955506095, 0.33930998847357907, 0.7970560233024151, 0.638852826429635, 1.482221124217865, 7.3386884195781175, 0.4002273193822847, 1.0258339303009485, 1.2651176459708537, 4.165891231151013 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 591, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The major tech companies, often referred to as FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), have dominated global market capitalization in recent years. As of February 2025, Apple leads with a market cap of $3.657 trillion, followed by Nvidia ($3.435 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.039 trillion). Amazon and Alphabet round out the top five. Notably, Saudi Aramco, a non-tech company, is ranked sixth, while Meta Platforms is ranked seventh." }, { "id": 35575, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Microsoft el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Microsoft en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Microsoft en 2025?", "slug": "subira-la-accion-de-microsoft-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:02:46.117039Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:33:45.802862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:48Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 323, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35025, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Microsoft el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:02:46.117379Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Microsoft es una de las mayores empresas tecnológicas del mundo, conocida por sus productos de software, así como por su plataforma en la nube. En 2024, el precio de la acción de Microsoft aumentó aproximadamente un 50%, impulsado por avances significativos en inteligencia artificial y computación en la nube. La compañía ha integrado la IA en todos sus servicios, mejorando las herramientas de productividad y las soluciones en la nube, consolidando su posición como líder en el sector de la IA.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el precio de la acción de Microsoft al cierre del último día hábil de 2025 (en el mercado principal donde cotiza, NASDAQ) supera los 421,50\\$, según la columna Close/Last de [<u>su página en NASDAQ</u>](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/historical). Se resolverá como **No** si es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "* Si NASDAQ no publica estos datos antes del 7 de enero de 2026, se utilizará Yahoo Finance o una fuente alternativa creíble.\n* El precio se ajustará en caso de splits de acciones o splits inversos.", "post_id": 35575, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753443719.4771, "end_time": 1753531940.630012, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753443719.4771, "end_time": 1753531940.630012, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7041826389374255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.006538555228475515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0254119200122325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03332186395825244, 0.0, 0.7274220631492785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49231111819056417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044035820439358166, 0.0, 0.6185997570722752, 0.0, 0.02815032716393501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006559720499395104, 0.0056387795649152994, 0.0006472633885754503, 0.048330777658983456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04894540120241102, 0.18589727474161857, 0.01276150838556514, 0.02126180604382749, 0.0, 0.022409990588637952, 0.029945458437525403, 0.002362735668416398, 0.0589504709795245, 0.018421225834887582, 0.00731614019786825, 0.012278370851942819, 0.0, 0.38221797185341205, 0.010500803620190464, 0.0032538314758885443, 0.0, 0.07219264392308455, 0.28656175589424904, 0.014397357765485471, 0.06879201977365662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7750245819022477, 0.4113413329966956, 0.478131029868472, 0.05618731498546108, 0.02025888029203551, 0.0037481472310442357, 0.9164279236369737, 0.06274913584187859, 0.0, 0.7856399493982364, 0.4749822030047603, 0.0, 0.5255768839484904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46734813816544485, 1.4321676868574555, 1.5151548704109932, 4.181854107914954e-05, 0.6721246117141353, 2.368800298030555, 1.2966645721138195, 0.9614194229892405, 0.5034215025435368, 0.3750927550161582, 1.2495513550331792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39137232321131155, 0.0, 0.1661160728029621, 1.3265431935953067, 0.19448785598881016, 0.08366192567205383, 0.3298979143827502, 0.3095125214044844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5538359042605319 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 661, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Microsoft es una de las mayores empresas tecnológicas del mundo, conocida por sus productos de software, así como por su plataforma en la nube. En 2024, el precio de la acción de Microsoft aumentó aproximadamente un 50%, impulsado por avances significativos en inteligencia artificial y computación en la nube. La compañía ha integrado la IA en todos sus servicios, mejorando las herramientas de productividad y las soluciones en la nube, consolidando su posición como líder en el sector de la IA." }, { "id": 35574, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Nvidia el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Nvidia en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá la acción de Nvidia en 2025?", "slug": "subira-la-accion-de-nvidia-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:00:45.814735Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:39.252422Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:40Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 351, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35024, "title": "¿Cerrará la acción de Nvidia el 2025 más alta de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T16:00:45.815152Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia es una empresa tecnológica líder especializada en procesadores gráficos y de IA. La acción de la compañía ha demostrado un fuerte crecimiento en los últimos años, impulsado por la creciente demanda de tecnologías de IA y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). En 2024, el precio de la acción de Nvidia aumentó aproximadamente un 170%, reflejando su sólido rendimiento.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el precio de la acción de Nvidia al cierre del último día hábil de 2025 (en el mercado principal donde cotiza, NASDAQ) supera los 134,29\\$, según la columna Close/Last de [<u>su página en NASDAQ</u>](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical). Se resolverá como **No** si es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "* Si NASDAQ no publica estos datos antes del 7 de enero de 2026, se utilizará Yahoo Finance o una fuente alternativa creíble.\n* El precio se ajustará en caso de splits de acciones o splits inversos.", "post_id": 35574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753357394.44878, "end_time": 1753568386.702385, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753357394.44878, "end_time": 1753568386.702385, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6842811746212296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12191702370212439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049378417238270305, 0.0, 0.0, 4.170416821569011e-06, 0.0, 0.05456828047943868, 0.00014778822706706127, 0.003651817892825281, 0.7754645655936991, 0.009650937432074385, 0.6551396167174747, 0.0, 1.3333686441324526e-05, 0.0003407469860394805, 0.004833862546681361, 0.035105191335372654, 0.02366055270884667, 0.01716112184009516, 0.002078015354135952, 0.0, 0.19566129935158044, 0.011824043936934448, 0.00017636904292759426, 0.04445197966638987, 0.020312502898838403, 0.17803058247499715, 0.0034176087866887887, 0.015998490027664545, 0.9349844751663055, 0.026858714302144628, 1.0226157412393821, 0.0, 0.030844943276655136, 0.013732504959787378, 0.04191346856501311, 1.0451826657183974, 0.0, 0.046245733360066044, 0.00024734361366637566, 0.002898706069121246, 0.002427497701647464, 0.0013833656239928393, 0.0008345932533442361, 0.03228852355339307, 4.9409956033422215e-05, 1.1157247849317609, 0.4673728544602377, 6.146277751066631e-05, 0.0, 0.03957197932000654, 0.30677459863852713, 0.5437809559770246, 0.0, 0.31447690299485803, 0.0, 0.46037078777775337, 0.0, 0.0013050317910800473, 0.4745210599650654, 2.0320922610025067, 1.1193442032004537, 0.0, 2.1048065007114913, 0.7034026986852991, 0.0, 1.1961399341053678, 2.3961343274965202e-05, 1.0493049682406785, 0.0, 0.4239828441890476, 1.9253014914924655, 0.0, 0.8396141875721927, 2.3215371951884323e-06, 0.20572387433138478, 1.0081643501141764, 0.29152363919640434, 0.6192745851288146, 0.32498382980201573, 0.0, 1.9202457949721397, 0.0, 0.9942051114635928, 0.0, 4.412007664451375e-05, 0.00011211426900471286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4145771905740658 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 814, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nvidia es una empresa tecnológica líder especializada en procesadores gráficos y de IA. La acción de la compañía ha demostrado un fuerte crecimiento en los últimos años, impulsado por la creciente demanda de tecnologías de IA y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). En 2024, el precio de la acción de Nvidia aumentó aproximadamente un 170%, reflejando su sólido rendimiento." }, { "id": 35573, "title": "¿Cerrará Bitcoin el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá Bitcoin en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá Bitcoin en 2025?", "slug": "subira-bitcoin-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:59:05.704728Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:36.725254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:32Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 284, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35023, "title": "¿Cerrará Bitcoin el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:59:05.705111Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin es la criptomoneda más conocida con la mayor capitalización de mercado. Su precio es altamente volátil y puede fluctuar rápidamente debido a factores regulatorios, de demanda y especulativos. En 2024, bitcoin subió aproximadamente un 125%. En 2025, el presidente Donald Trump ha adoptado [<u>una postura pro-cripto</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), emitiendo una orden ejecutiva para promover los activos digitales y explorar nuevas regulaciones. La administración de Trump tiene como objetivo posicionar a EE.UU. como líder en tecnología financiera digital, lo que podría impulsar las criptomonedas.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el precio de Bitcoin al final del 31 de diciembre de 2025 (o el último día de registro disponible) supera los 93.429,20\\$, según el valor de Cierre de su [<u>página en CoinMarketCap</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/). Se resolverá como **No** si es igual o inferior.", "fine_print": "* Si CoinMarketCap no publica estos datos antes del 7 de enero de 2026, esta pregunta se resolverá según los [<u>datos de CoinGecko</u>](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). Si CoinGecko tampoco publica estos datos, se resolverá en base a una fuente alternativa creíble.", "post_id": 35573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753441577.628891, "end_time": 1753537971.731812, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753441577.628891, "end_time": 1753537971.731812, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6188746299911024 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16833015415840574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01905014051776848, 0.09963512655286344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007504063890502139, 0.0, 0.01778633780987363, 0.21309265547090303, 0.0, 0.00025271568342238323, 1.073769813363469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2241031658789964, 0.0029522736628774804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337928046293022, 0.0, 0.6091166707995036, 0.002124921283968068, 0.012475404367404748, 0.0149499508821311, 0.0, 0.009003528380033723, 0.01748131057737674, 0.0, 0.13378222198236295, 0.0, 0.5897418417234167, 0.0, 0.0019316693155737351, 0.0, 0.030048793111307936, 0.3446265343498947, 0.00018098506977830392, 0.00012390029362510449, 0.0, 0.003644371897084077, 1.572565681396906, 0.43762124214008513, 0.0005143843568136428, 6.046339999853544e-05, 0.0, 1.543271462909619, 0.00015076747160505023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.442045936366503, 0.07213575917850173, 1.1114657699013346, 1.5138993924543107, 0.0, 0.5041848176767044, 0.03921807383198207, 0.043330466401811686, 0.08668077666099322, 0.051679623283353085, 1.0584098543960303, 0.0014350671209356553, 0.0, 0.9571751434465521, 0.0, 0.918160991195526, 0.0, 0.1254282304003718, 0.3166706509230346, 0.0, 1.5856396159674457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4307957112970547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26027456032400853, 0.0, 1.0622408505457204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46373366461614546, 0.5583648646088453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9080447838852962 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 565, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin es la criptomoneda más conocida con la mayor capitalización de mercado. Su precio es altamente volátil y puede fluctuar rápidamente debido a factores regulatorios, de demanda y especulativos. En 2024, bitcoin subió aproximadamente un 125%. En 2025, el presidente Donald Trump ha adoptado [<u>una postura pro-cripto</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), emitiendo una orden ejecutiva para promover los activos digitales y explorar nuevas regulaciones. La administración de Trump tiene como objetivo posicionar a EE.UU. como líder en tecnología financiera digital, lo que podría impulsar las criptomonedas." }, { "id": 35572, "title": "¿Cerrará el IBEX 35 el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "short_title": "¿Subirá el Ibex en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Subirá el Ibex en 2025?", "slug": "subira-el-ibex-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:55:47.928366Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:30.953236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:22Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35022, "title": "¿Cerrará el IBEX 35 el 2025 más alto de lo que empezó?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:55:47.928780Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El Ibex 35 es el principal índice bursátil de la Bolsa de Madrid. Sirve como un barómetro clave de la economía española, reflejando las condiciones económicas nacionales e internacionales. La composición del índice puede explorarse en detalle [<u>en Wikipedia</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35)<u>.</u> \nDespués de liderar el crecimiento de los mercados bursátiles de la UE en 2023 con un aumento del 23%, el IBEX 35 se ha mantenido cerca de la cima de la tabla en 2024, subiendo un 14,78%. Fue el [<u>segundo índice bursátil con mejor rendimiento entre los principales mercados europeos</u>](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el valor oficial de cierre del Ibex 35 en el último día hábil de 2025 (normalmente el 31 de diciembre o la sesión anterior si cae en festivo) supera los 11.595,00, según la columna Close de [<u>su página en Yahoo Finance</u>](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIBEX/history/). Se resolverá como **No** si el valor es igual o inferior a 11.595,00€.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi Yahoo Finance deja de informar estos datos, se puede utilizar una fuente alternativa creíble para resolver esta pregunta.", "post_id": 35572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753448503.087709, "end_time": 1753529993.491667, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753448503.087709, "end_time": 1753529993.491667, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8222895224007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.010280093838077108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05575433989433482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034559013208797965, 2.7837534304304083e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04808361738415774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.318209642494191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025251351064951744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6705477364078785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002449430530375752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007126753249711776, 0.0013738396328811036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03678641020664265, 0.0, 0.00795577842133545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15530648083417073, 0.011230462878198023, 0.0, 0.00032717227925163487, 0.0008005381655414761, 1.131175092818895, 0.0, 0.3433456302157314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5273038969332621, 0.0016780786857043893, 0.0, 0.0004318346030668858, 0.0015198778744991938, 0.8184816183327511, 0.04959605826675678, 0.4925652365773694, 0.06257888200243465, 0.0, 1.7328386527538089, 0.03052756316698955, 0.0849938117738748, 0.0, 1.0268957750080974, 3.312875659094608, 0.5571938559029864, 1.0996840001345938, 0.1973047216911859, 2.349269398017769, 1.9072543523455066, 0.3164536896795703, 1.412129473498839, 0.5345420917369886, 9.581825713945354e-05, 0.6447327689884316, 0.0, 0.6131624971655124, 0.0, 0.8536031241789885 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 541, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El Ibex 35 es el principal índice bursátil de la Bolsa de Madrid. Sirve como un barómetro clave de la economía española, reflejando las condiciones económicas nacionales e internacionales. La composición del índice puede explorarse en detalle [<u>en Wikipedia</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35)<u>.</u> \nDespués de liderar el crecimiento de los mercados bursátiles de la UE en 2023 con un aumento del 23%, el IBEX 35 se ha mantenido cerca de la cima de la tabla en 2024, subiendo un 14,78%. Fue el [<u>segundo índice bursátil con mejor rendimiento entre los principales mercados europeos</u>](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf)." }, { "id": 35571, "title": "¿Estará Inditex entre las 10 mayores empresas de la UE por capitalización bursátil a finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Inditex Top 10 en UE (2025)?", "url_title": "¿Inditex Top 10 en UE (2025)?", "slug": "inditex-top-10-en-ue-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:53:37.729817Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:11.431055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:38:08Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 262, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35021, "title": "¿Estará Inditex entre las 10 mayores empresas de la UE por capitalización bursátil a finales de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:53:37.730235Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Inditex, la multinacional española conocida por ser propietaria de marcas como Zara, es la [<u>mayor empresa de España por capitalización bursátil</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) y un actor importante en los mercados internacionales. A febrero de 2025, Inditex ocupa el puesto 11 entre las mayores empresas de Europa por capitalización bursátil, siguiendo de cerca a Deutsche Telekom y Siemens. Con una capitalización de mercado de aproximadamente 175.000 millones de dólares, Inditex necesitaría superar a Deutsche Telekom, actualmente valorada en unos 179.680 millones de dólares, para entrar en el top 10.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, a 31 de diciembre de 2025 (o la fecha de negociación anterior), Inditex se sitúa entre las 10 mayores empresas por capitalización bursátil en la Unión Europea (UE). Se resolverá como **No** si se sitúa por debajo de la 10ª posición o no está listada en absoluto.", "fine_print": "* Se utilizará [<u>CompaniesMarketCap</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) como referencia, o una fuente fiable equivalente.\n* Si no se dispone de datos específicos para el 31 de diciembre de 2025, se utilizará el último cierre del año.", "post_id": 35571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753359199.343141, "end_time": 1753576238.832738, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753359199.343141, "end_time": 1753576238.832738, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34485273673675043 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4830789802452595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24778460304366645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16514968606871416, 1.1521188283471229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819278853495524, 0.0, 0.7473789149268295, 0.005314470848292115, 0.0, 0.9127476192398437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2733293101211842, 0.15115215575416344, 0.9237367181573468, 1.4398243458926614, 0.0, 3.7634995482471885, 0.20545673215509003, 0.2463627274265185, 0.09445680460307662, 0.4659062666554056, 0.9686512572106041, 1.4153833376048161e-05, 0.25852098607765817, 0.13310280285954024, 0.0, 1.2909478193813864, 0.021863934931097662, 0.014684522578604548, 0.0057485380302654656, 0.0, 1.170037616786896, 0.03298080161411055, 0.000250377265801166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02834797177902203, 0.05345197904255169, 0.6874881079736628, 0.017571330465225344, 0.0, 0.006130633140952651, 0.5545001743267883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.66322600634279, 0.0, 0.0014904595092425786, 0.02376894725452835, 0.5266563421209521, 0.9703697933707707, 0.0024724236580862683, 0.00010458346883053686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4332167369144783, 7.338626614942615e-05, 0.07938408952467735, 0.0019315252996501865, 0.0009402425934204333, 0.010566571779490884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3117589267229185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005002875567110885 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 458, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Inditex, la multinacional española conocida por ser propietaria de marcas como Zara, es la [<u>mayor empresa de España por capitalización bursátil</u>](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) y un actor importante en los mercados internacionales. A febrero de 2025, Inditex ocupa el puesto 11 entre las mayores empresas de Europa por capitalización bursátil, siguiendo de cerca a Deutsche Telekom y Siemens. Con una capitalización de mercado de aproximadamente 175.000 millones de dólares, Inditex necesitaría superar a Deutsche Telekom, actualmente valorada en unos 179.680 millones de dólares, para entrar en el top 10." }, { "id": 35570, "title": "¿Subirán los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid más de un 18% en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Vivienda Madrid >18%?", "url_title": "¿Vivienda Madrid >18%?", "slug": "vivienda-madrid-18", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:51:55.314009Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:36:26.327647Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:59Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 278, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35020, "title": "¿Subirán los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid más de un 18% en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:51:55.314368Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "En 2024, los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid subieron un 20%, y se espera que el mercado inmobiliario de Madrid continúe su trayectoria ascendente en 2025. Según informa [<u>Caixabank Research</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), el estado actual del mercado inmobiliario español se caracteriza, en términos generales, por la fortaleza de la demanda y la escasez de oferta. [<u>Pronostican</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) un aumento del 6%-7% para los precios de la vivienda en España.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según los datos de precios de venta publicados en el [<u>portal Idealista</u>](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), el precio medio de la vivienda en la **ciudad de Madrid** por metro cuadrado sube más de un 18% desde diciembre de 2024 hasta diciembre de 2025. Se resolverá como **No** si el aumento es del 18% o menos, o si hay una disminución de los precios.", "fine_print": "* En el momento de redactar esta pregunta, los precios de diciembre de 2024 son 4.952 €/m² según el gráfico y la tabla \"Histórico de variaciones de precios de venta en Madrid\" de la fuente de resolución. Sin embargo, el aumento se calculará en base a los precios de diciembre de 2024 que se muestren cuando se publiquen los datos de diciembre de 2025.\n* Se compararán cifras nominales, sin descontar el efecto de la inflación.\n\n	•\tSi Idealista no ha publicado datos para diciembre de 2025 antes del 7 de enero, esta pregunta se resolverá según el aumento de noviembre de 2024 a noviembre de 2025. Si esto no está disponible, esta pregunta será **anulada**.", "post_id": 35570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753359243.354709, "end_time": 1753471181.217489, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753359243.354709, "end_time": 1753471181.217489, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.31973849449396347 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6337233540403272, 0.0, 0.5191190705504605, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0072613343797425, 0.0, 0.34944180598566227, 0.8691077131832569, 0.02771747561346847, 0.39157302925674803, 1.2322030871128657, 8.544083362327318e-05, 0.0, 0.0001525059876562794, 0.8111783776234665, 0.20190934367855767, 0.4608580133924702, 0.471136480179175, 0.3323547594325312, 0.15112890016286243, 0.2013583914182366, 0.21302970553851058, 1.729767245944866, 0.963367897725503, 3.5337562322603953, 0.6401330385741505, 0.00011554361606658558, 0.007573961779212931, 0.0, 0.23915438045953308, 2.6723584011023252e-05, 0.027271128212774706, 0.9710073257377874, 0.49795946132501057, 0.005248283559615201, 0.06848734575071123, 0.47812709936388953, 0.22659226433294768, 0.0, 0.6413320710931099, 0.0, 0.07576720625729162, 0.0006530795175512224, 0.0, 0.07956464525614844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.303143359256636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08799641994456663, 0.9230568182379639, 0.028451965867453577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1567840600448841, 0.0, 0.008917724995788351, 0.4688839791923085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17210776255486968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004851829117117352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13610749061059552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.819520932604957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009470111192341006, 0.0, 0.129785057021512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4197649797064789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848061506066878 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 459, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "En 2024, los precios de la vivienda en la ciudad de Madrid subieron un 20%, y se espera que el mercado inmobiliario de Madrid continúe su trayectoria ascendente en 2025. Según informa [<u>Caixabank Research</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), el estado actual del mercado inmobiliario español se caracteriza, en términos generales, por la fortaleza de la demanda y la escasez de oferta. [<u>Pronostican</u>](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) un aumento del 6%-7% para los precios de la vivienda en España." }, { "id": 35569, "title": "¿Crecerá la economía de España más que la de la Eurozona entre el Q3 2024 y el Q3 2025?", "short_title": "¿Crecimiento España vs. Eurozona?", "url_title": "¿Crecimiento España vs. Eurozona?", "slug": "crecimiento-espana-vs-eurozona", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:16:13.177754Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-25T09:34:15.342088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:37:46Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 369, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 233, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35019, "title": "¿Crecerá la economía de España más que la de la Eurozona entre el Q3 2024 y el Q3 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-26T15:16:13.178176Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "España y la Eurozona publican sus cifras de PIB trimestralmente a través de <u>Eurostat</u>. El crecimiento relativo de la economía española frente a la media de la Eurozona es un indicador de la competitividad y resiliencia de ambas regiones. Entre 2023 y 2024 (Q3), España creció un 3,5% frente al 0,9% de la Eurozona ([<u>Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8)).", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según [<u>datos oficiales de Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators), el crecimiento del PIB real de España (variación porcentual interanual desde el Q3 2024 hasta el Q3 2025) supera el crecimiento agregado de la Eurozona en el mismo período. Se resolverá como **No** si el crecimiento de la Eurozona es igual o mayor.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi los datos para el Q3 2025 no están disponibles antes del 7 de enero, la pregunta será **anulada**.\n\n	•\tSi Eurostat no publica datos interanuales, la resolución se calculará en base a datos trimestrales.", "post_id": 35569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753356480.536235, "end_time": 1753470662.699152, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.985 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753356480.536235, "end_time": 1753470662.699152, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.985 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.015000000000000013, 0.985 ], "means": [ 0.9520773550633014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.029259855756506827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036332946242898595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2053520954264137e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053716292358453765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021474859124819413, 0.0, 0.46193440533411306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006889997774339898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011653533137750375, 2.738176676228318e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025581145378892585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6125537532025599, 0.0, 0.000452584709942377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007582256036097937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4483528504186511, 0.011335144202373701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20385750626098045, 0.6559855337291606, 0.0, 0.0005220897622860888, 0.005545559806589576, 0.0, 1.8390676385821094, 0.38521852544831114, 0.05349048465131557, 0.5394043164312138, 0.0, 2.517870667233076, 0.8978060338467946, 1.162093926280753, 4.2228922828319, 13.608463265336278 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 633, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "España y la Eurozona publican sus cifras de PIB trimestralmente a través de <u>Eurostat</u>. El crecimiento relativo de la economía española frente a la media de la Eurozona es un indicador de la competitividad y resiliencia de ambas regiones. Entre 2023 y 2024 (Q3), España creció un 3,5% frente al 0,9% de la Eurozona ([<u>Eurostat</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8))." } ] }
