Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5840
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5860", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5820", "results": [ { "id": 1480, "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", "short_title": "Voyager's Golden Record Retrieved by Anyone", "url_title": "Voyager's Golden Record Retrieved by Anyone", "slug": "voyagers-golden-record-retrieved-by-anyone", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:41:53.505663Z", "published_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:53:28.834584Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1480, "title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:41:53.505663Z", "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-06T22:59:38.844151Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-06T22:59:38.844151Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2098-09-06T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\n\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\n\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.", "resolution_criteria": "(XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\n\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1480, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758491598.358847, "end_time": 1789007209.054, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758491598.358847, "end_time": 1789007209.054, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.25073263970914506 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8006847611930232, 6.536049385551612, 0.4833286798932114, 0.2974260503216225, 0.5294629521008942, 0.5615865835076088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022192913421098, 0.9231047287497428, 1.3961163464627853, 0.06790972084122754, 0.9568504277218792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024429318757944643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7316480589573783, 0.0, 0.13848612041955394, 0.29539624164855693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020764677809577466, 0.2326263513297242, 0.2572217587589902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007661820069219466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10001535513187128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4533820975493665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05022630295492274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7028504081540783, 0.5304596432654674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005615367448597199, 0.0004924294753687684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010926343965683243, 0.16228119490657228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04730246698645611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5755785835383023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7717433750498284, 0.36286070221757477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.178506135671419 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286955.154806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286955.154806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9395505540019998, 0.06044944599800016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 266, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\n\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\n\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase." }, { "id": 1479, "title": "Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-another-mass-shooting-in-the-us-at-least-20-casualties-by-end-of-the-year", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:37:45.704559Z", "published_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.080457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-08T14:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-08T14:22:00Z", "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1479, "title": "Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year?", "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:37:45.704559Z", "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-06T21:49:26.815505Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-06T21:49:26.815505Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-08T14:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-08T14:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-08T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "How many people must be killed or injured in order for an event to constitute a ‘mass shooting’? Congress defines the term ‘mass killings’ as, [“the term ‘mass killings’ means 3 or more killings in a single incident.”](https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ265/PLAW-112publ265.pdf) Some balk at this definition, contending that the threshold is too low. You need more than three victims in order for such a designation to make sense. Note that we immediately moved from mass killings to mass shootings, because gun violence is just that common in America. \n\nPerhaps with more data on gun violence in American society we could have a more reasonable definition. This raises another contentious issue in this debate, how do we track the number of shootings? Who is the authority on this data?\nYou might think that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention should have a significant role in monitoring gun violence since many people consider this a public health issue. After all, their motto is [“CDC 24/7. Saving lives. Protecting people.”](https://www.cdc.gov/)\nLest ye forget, this is America:\n>In 1996, the Republican-majority Congress threatened to strip funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention unless it stopped funding research into firearm injuries and deaths. The National Rifle Association accused the CDC of promoting gun control. As a result, the CDC stopped funding gun-control research — which had a chilling effect far beyond the agency, drying up money for almost all public health studies of the issue nationwide. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/10/04/gun-violence-research-has-been-shut-down-for-20-years/?utm_term=.b2e86ee9f003)\n\nThis is known as the Dickey Amendment and it too has become a contentious issue in the national debate about gun control. Fortunately, we can table this issue and proceed with our forecasting. \n\nFor the purposes of this question we will consider mass shootings with 20 casualties. By casualty we are referring to an individual that is killed or injured during the shooting (and yes, this includes the shooter). This makes for a more interesting question. Note that the [recent Jacksonville shooting](https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/27/us/jacksonville-madden-tournament-shooting/index.html) would not meet the threshold set forth here. \n\nMass shootings, as defined earlier, have become a commonplace event in this American life. The FBI provides reliable data about ‘active shooters’. [According to the FBI](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-incidents-us-2016-2017.pdf/view), the US endured 20 mass killings in 2016 and 2017. Mass shooting involving more than 20 casualties are rarer. Thus far, we have only had one such event in 2018. The [Stoneman Douglas High School shooting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoneman_Douglas_High_School_shooting) claimed 17 lives and included 17 injuries. \n\nIn 2017, we had two such events. The [Las Vegas Massacre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Las_Vegas_shooting) in Las Vegas on October 1, 2017 in which 58 people were killed and 289 wounded. Also, the [Sutherland Springs church shooting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutherland_Springs_church_shooting) on November 5, 2017 in which 27 people were killed (including the shooter and an unborn child) and 20 wounded. \n\nDespite the previously mentioned controversy concerning obtaining reliable data about gun violence once we increase the threshold to include 20 casualties it becomes readily apparent how we will resolve our question. A mass shooting with 20 or more casualties will be all over every media site in the hours following such a horrific event. (Question resolves as affirmative if a credible news agency reports that a mass shooting, with 20 casualties) occurred in the United States of America. Depressingly, we all know that another mass shooting will occur, it is simply a matter of when. \n\nCloses and resolves retroactively to one day prior to the event should one occur.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1479, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540956888.362236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540956888.362236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3305979771351572 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.039438581323460606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5937825605881091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999546713320077, 0.0, 2.145529221378306, 0.03153587526592278, 0.0, 0.3695799203115134, 0.22829097309954705, 0.2014653080356482, 0.0, 0.07344717902097064, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2154952808128714, 0.0, 0.13675591576630178, 1.0951049131235557, 0.012994363513026918, 0.2672903913287806, 0.1074598433246643, 0.003928914836847643, 0.6723627293803134, 0.0, 1.6673908549643128, 0.506043499389235, 0.022782734360581976, 0.19356161412516576, 0.2590287172062447, 0.0, 0.058942783212658584, 0.027976005048861188, 0.0, 0.141799146016109, 1.2045402365354019, 0.08472672494951185, 0.028677860971905843, 0.0, 0.0024595816514053743, 1.0006563449417465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005007836331890419, 0.2242532617738487, 1.051793940399548, 0.9487983083616589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1663892557059332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.10925386280726783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3121499741115087, 0.19313444293102433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6167157021814039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03421887073528195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397301097993673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18316787834453957 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.790655966530679, "coverage": 0.9947282659472142, "baseline_score": -64.59600906333874, "spot_peer_score": 11.502520070247272, "peer_archived_score": 11.790655966530679, "baseline_archived_score": -64.59600906333874, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.502520070247272 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540684675.566533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540684675.566533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7934568680443924, 0.20654313195560758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1478, "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:34:45.167652Z", "published_at": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.778948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:43:00Z", "open_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1478, "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:34:45.167652Z", "open_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-08T21:47:11.155917Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-08T21:47:11.155917Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:46:14.883140Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\n\n> In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\n\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n\n> [the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\n\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\n\n*** Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577766188.356588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577766188.356588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.13667844656151484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.5539839780119458, 0.21352449006712118, 0.5462627394860479, 1.1892200412573195, 3.1498558642725465, 0.0, 0.6177039404822752, 1.0921304317596219, 1.028297501761488, 1.403446913804959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0636164784000009, 0.437727464702672, 0.0, 0.007165678900495897, 0.03190526512964417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23150663513794345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14878371308155725, 0.0, 0.6986181450882394, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.32374300958340624, 0.008210459748030398, 0.0, 0.07332879679467565, 0.0663340558700189, 0.009362710949132512, 0.06615126713048639, 0.013550076875576434, 0.06161496428359948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002744236364250548, 0.0, 0.48090414923668245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2405592494042085, 0.012023428955703545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026120776162701476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7886916210366777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004599875297244844 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.90649605905626, "peer_score": 15.074611020532068, "coverage": 0.9998379302070276, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998379302070276, "spot_peer_score": 9.994514627066556, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 46.90649605905626, "peer_archived_score": 15.074611020532068, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.994514627066556, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577556116.511882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577556116.511882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9050990268545538, 0.0949009731454462 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1477, "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?", "short_title": "No Nuclear Disarmament before 2075", "url_title": "No Nuclear Disarmament before 2075", "slug": "no-nuclear-disarmament-before-2075", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:32:59.945197Z", "published_at": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.440641Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1477, "title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?", "created_at": "2018-10-02T23:32:59.945197Z", "open_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-07T14:58:25.404164Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-07T14:58:25.404164Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\n\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\n\n> Logic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \n\nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\n\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\n\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1477, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543624458.57004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543624458.57004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7721782889673083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9262876617311459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014143700422339119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5867143632968327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32184324060057423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007060531117707437, 0.0, 0.002733989519125462, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.205688372031318, 0.8548598167649815, 0.3529864902772978, 0.0, 1.4720197600845863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9716052569043071, 0.3740384336233754, 0.0, 0.03914327981320501, 0.0, 0.9932039124351311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5938136093221442, 0.02405118580334803, 0.9009921384041186, 0.0, 0.0010969478514417234, 1.282654747693206, 0.08781278182493218, 0.0, 0.41950225669543134, 0.005675964319022071, 1.31520270969819, 0.8838450870606038, 0.1676997128553761, 0.08619494998419877, 2.8999181187895893 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543624458.601035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543624458.601035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16353042522409822, 0.8364695747759018 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1476, "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "short_title": "NASA Lands People on Mars before 2030", "url_title": "NASA Lands People on Mars before 2030", "slug": "nasa-lands-people-on-mars-before-2030", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-10-02T10:44:53.425855Z", "published_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T13:40:59.721130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 368, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1476, "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "created_at": "2018-10-02T10:44:53.425855Z", "open_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-06T23:54:28.598673Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-06T23:54:28.598673Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\n\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\n> The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, **followed by human missions to Mars** and other destinations.'\n\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763646048.907817, "end_time": 1766439051.091969, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763646048.907817, "end_time": 1766439051.091969, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0191145938010792 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.281828459250754, 2.332281872193093, 1.0599376685920796, 0.025198133368448193, 0.0055093125192574015, 0.6984991359986026, 0.00037343799521909486, 0.001471192538448094, 0.011132590278196451, 0.0, 0.07488084442242057, 0.001563247523273896, 0.1275700504278645, 0.002862725606199937, 0.0, 0.0016792962361398566, 0.0, 0.7790409755663823, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7041517871528773e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09620611921645984, 0.0008572684470409803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013025933617350608, 0.0, 0.0013708816740165856, 0.00037180626761346716, 4.077262232776694e-06, 3.9384602255966825e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.052382734128455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032767099567318846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021503264229669875, 1.960843885158949e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001888851761924809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002921927549442896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002588225296461075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09926362814746326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204467326041992e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1443405258807634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.728742924250198e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290009.544904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 334, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290009.544904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 334, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 712, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\n\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\n> The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, **followed by human missions to Mars** and other destinations.'\n\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA." }, { "id": 1469, "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-29T19:09:33.695690Z", "published_at": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T08:36:17.507228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 200, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1469, "title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", "created_at": "2018-09-29T19:09:33.695690Z", "open_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-04T22:36:46.554630Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-04T22:36:46.554630Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The universe is thought to contain:\n\n- only around 5% of ordinary matter\n- 25% Dark Matter\n- 70% Dark Energy\n\nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\n\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n\n**[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy)** is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\n\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what **Dark Matter** is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\n\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. \nIf the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762245361.096406, "end_time": 1771520518.308194, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762245361.096406, "end_time": 1771520518.308194, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.46825409786163646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.644796869770303, 1.8736665055007204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17783147819547027, 0.47735370093476737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5987743721684775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.163752683657131, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6091752360396971, 0.0, 0.005341814169416669, 0.0, 0.00036173030842221913, 0.3665849728639511, 0.3792362162665565, 0.0, 0.6107448781634471, 0.0, 0.6518707005763473, 0.00018393256403903145, 0.0, 0.08788006086618483, 1.8598232856944258e-05, 0.4655992349687836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030193181928809338, 0.0, 0.9403385629427292, 0.0, 0.0, 2.958206257791913e-05, 0.12741772417721176, 0.026760829673020372, 0.021438468690909276, 0.18916295046433318, 0.0009450802067785217, 0.3001561272841907, 1.1447151576553645, 0.39878557741518594, 1.9650714472896924, 0.2698921130932304, 0.5347559373576215, 0.6872159157090665, 0.0991535031063988, 0.060694179020217925, 0.0, 0.0, 1.58511579858293, 0.5765000080419177, 0.25535922584561044, 0.27837663646853317, 0.02039543883909872, 1.1515521212089685, 0.004193176487094346, 0.0067093743610187, 0.0001580128490952246, 0.06348730820867969, 1.8206023160602465, 0.0004772615039191677, 0.2010426384143049, 0.019957327513478895, 0.02618077602840634, 0.3254928734829112, 0.0, 4.452495928396151e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6562370169605042, 0.8766612817828897, 0.1121695089875364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8886477395086755, 0.0, 0.9303736229878816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15088350225208944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18527976115226064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2420917376074452 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289754.87947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289754.87947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.584389295395181, 0.4156107046048189 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 376, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1468, "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "short_title": "Xi Jinping In Power After 2022", "url_title": "Xi Jinping In Power After 2022", "slug": "xi-jinping-in-power-after-2022", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-28T16:41:16.500369Z", "published_at": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.099885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 423, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1468, "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "created_at": "2018-09-28T16:41:16.500369Z", "open_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-01T18:04:50.034599Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-01T18:04:50.034599Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\n\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still *de facto* ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \n\nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n\n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his *de jure* leadership of China into a *de facto* one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n\n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \n\nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\n\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \n\nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if: \n\n* Xi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n\n* Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n\n* Xi remains *de facto* leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672527443.376218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672527443.376218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9833389063745173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.383502594707922e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03567604365279245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3765970783685045e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039404645881439663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6478448025023253e-08, 0.0, 6.525301572131617e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2557890927383592e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.061473122135929e-07, 0.0037224621491960407, 4.4588589949353204e-05, 0.0, 6.604276453602259e-06, 1.4622009430412514e-05, 5.123789899908429e-07, 0.000506338940721333, 2.0064375752152195e-05, 0.03891789614898669, 6.776040670152244e-05, 0.0013566677666002824, 0.04614604798093397, 1.471799169119564e-05, 0.0, 0.0036436188953714796, 1.1799901854880578e-05, 0.011175774338728883, 0.21537204759378853, 0.0007603941644137924, 0.023651719311873317, 0.0, 0.0048316491588881565, 0.3790460797940459, 0.0002021304356912563, 9.164976648160298e-05, 0.0006678942180452489, 0.06162031361441764, 0.07142310476874826, 0.007441421018760082, 0.01227802241146226, 0.0029896314094604087, 1.478048836020839, 0.5944695230335222, 0.42037403472209456, 1.534878436675468, 34.6860720614769 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.021040365959662, "coverage": 0.9999990903632946, "baseline_score": 79.52037904240137, "spot_peer_score": -4.853415897864669, "peer_archived_score": 11.021040365959662, "baseline_archived_score": 79.52037904240137, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.853415897864669 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672527443.435915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672527443.435915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 423, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012553988702265095, 0.9874460112977349 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 38, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 933, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\n\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still *de facto* ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \n\nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n\n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his *de jure* leadership of China into a *de facto* one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n\n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \n\nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\n\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \n\nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022." }, { "id": 1463, "title": "Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-tweet-about-qanon-before-the-end-of-october", "author_id": 105855, "author_username": "Ben", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-26T22:04:57.833557Z", "published_at": "2018-09-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.355700Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-01T23:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-01T23:34:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1463, "title": "Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?", "created_at": "2018-09-26T22:04:57.833557Z", "open_time": "2018-09-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-29T20:28:09.873281Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-29T20:28:09.873281Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-01T23:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-01T23:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-01T23:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?[Adapted from](https://www.predictit.org/Contract/11890/Will-a-%40realDonaldTrump-tweet-mention-QAnon-by-Sept-30#data) (from Predictit.org)\n\nSee this [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1368/will-coleman-rogers-be-revealed-as-q-or-as-part-of-the-team-that-is-q/) if you would like to know more about QAnon. \nWhy think that Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) would tweet about QAnon? First and foremost, he is a prolific tweeter ([about seven per day](https://www.bustle.com/p/how-many-times-has-trump-tweeted-as-president-twitter-is-his-best-friend-8011368)) Secondly, there have been many QAnon supporters at his recent rallies and it seems very likely that he saw them. Finally, on [8/24/2018](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/403549-trump-meets-with-promoter-of-qanon-conspiracy-theory-in-oval?rnd=1535151221) Donald Trump met with Lionel Lebron, a promoter of the QAnon conspiracy, at the Oval Office. \n\nAs much as you might hate to admit it, this story has legs y'all. Recently, [Reddit banned QAnon](https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/12/17847186/reddit-qanon-milliondollarextreme-ban-sam-hyde) for \"inciting violence, harassment, and the dissemination of personal information\". \n\nResolution criteria: question resolves as affirmative if Trump mentions QAnon in a tweet before November 1, 2018. We can resolve this question by noting the President's twitter account, or a credible media report as he often deletes his tweets (which is problematic because these are [official presidential records](https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-02-19/donald-trumps-tweets-are-now-presidential-records)) Interestingly, recently he was ordered to [unblock Twitter users](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/trump-cant-block-twitter-followers-federal-judge-says.html)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538701170.742457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538701170.742457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17892487965510595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.5841677671668943, 0.9326977156938286, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.7739496568954345, 0.41207610303291553, 0.07635800761160927, 0.6488417772969123, 0.0, 0.6188187714915607, 0.0, 0.0, 1.280087962704847, 0.211302735730635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 0.6875095412765093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8036979901398893, 0.2737379468077832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2978686829232104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5138896685608535, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.6513080407565454, 0.0, 0.3813249327118262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8762363153256947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.429929356706763, "coverage": 0.9890062037984162, "baseline_score": 70.00360655568369, "spot_peer_score": -11.706210934495243, "peer_archived_score": 9.429929356706763, "baseline_archived_score": 70.00360655568369, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.706210934495243 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538528617.660034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538528617.660034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9012624883169984, 0.09873751168300154 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1459, "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", "short_title": "Neurological correlate of consciousness?", "url_title": "Neurological correlate of consciousness?", "slug": "neurological-correlate-of-consciousness", "author_id": 105855, "author_username": "Ben", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-24T19:44:09.553073Z", "published_at": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.323245Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-24T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-24T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1459, "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?", "created_at": "2018-09-24T19:44:09.553073Z", "open_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-27T17:41:08.668937Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-27T17:41:08.668937Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-24T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-24T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-24T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \n\nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). \nYou might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \n\nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)) The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546297023.902627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546297023.902627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.1993264506156398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.08051897433558, 0.01878561351260412, 0.29290502236658633, 0.06666153381636768, 0.16833401977629558, 0.41335865553686857, 0.0, 0.6160908634267016, 0.03779620069135553, 0.4826288170012833, 0.7802828173439227, 0.5364453456239711, 1.654093562603038, 0.0, 0.18769831038601945, 0.0, 0.8498370095463992, 0.0, 0.5100062612292348, 1.9528658633342841, 0.09495037644869721, 0.19633866119102775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7371765885861109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6872184256913908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4955742943419901, 0.010256932132203396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8841796406594272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8373585893386828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.145976545614281, "coverage": 0.999916001595799, "baseline_score": 79.58555586359753, "spot_peer_score": 41.32825309721677, "peer_archived_score": 7.145976545614281, "baseline_archived_score": 79.58555586359753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.32825309721677 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1545189766.104445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1545189766.104445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9198808738911286, 0.08011912610887144 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \n\nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). \nYou might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \n\nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)) The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so." }, { "id": 1457, "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-22T20:37:36.790307Z", "published_at": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.264629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:55:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 251, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1457, "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "created_at": "2018-09-22T20:37:36.790307Z", "open_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-29T20:33:34.729039Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-29T20:33:34.729039Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-08T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\n\nA brief overview on her:\n\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \n\nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\n\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \n\nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\n\nThus we ask: **Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635025541.712097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635025541.712097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025050318473777113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.378643467385, 1.8819746860192148, 1.9340482035662134, 0.9699470292321617, 0.9426971409648386, 0.002030793335187575, 0.46547770462982085, 0.5606592276988702, 2.157533046319649e-05, 0.819501818602099, 0.002622874091032915, 0.603155956114778, 0.004955160278499106, 0.2693804430525824, 0.003535358782048258, 0.00788352990636529, 7.442203250105575e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004979912425955289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2969353978704584, 0.0005663041523705654, 1.4008636970966815e-05, 0.0, 6.081267857825446e-05, 0.0010695643824417905, 0.0, 0.0030485052311769387, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5791170402943296e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017832961207435308, 1.8557377971078062e-06, 0.009442739342536947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022339811146894366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019142565696333848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004724984322396097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012585083256918333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.165100410543879, "coverage": 0.9999034422984778, "baseline_score": 95.83704377072559, "spot_peer_score": -23.874297561000173, "peer_archived_score": 9.165100410543879, "baseline_archived_score": 95.83704377072559, "spot_peer_archived_score": -23.874297561000173 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635025541.752461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635025541.752461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948150632930615, 0.005184936706938563 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 460, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1456, "title": "Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "has-michael-atiyah-possibly-cracked-the-riemann-hypothesis", "author_id": 100626, "author_username": "gjm", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-22T12:06:48.050575Z", "published_at": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.413643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-09-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-15T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-15T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1456, "title": "Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis?", "created_at": "2018-09-22T12:06:48.050575Z", "open_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-23T09:18:34.054862Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-23T09:18:34.054862Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-15T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-15T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-15T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The eminent mathematician [Sir Michael Atiyah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Atiyah) will be giving a talk on Monday 2018-09-24 at the Heidelberg Laureates' Forum in which, so it is claimed, he will be presenting a proof of the [Riemann hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_hypothesis). Here's an [announcement](https://twitter.com/HLForum/status/1042670700652318720) from the HLF twitter account, and an [article](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2180406-famed-mathematician-claims-proof-of-160-year-old-riemann-hypothesis/) in _New Scientist_ magazine.\n\nThe Riemann hypothesis is arguably the most important open problem in mathematics. Somewhere around a century ago, David Hilbert is said to have remarked that if he were to fall asleep for a thousand years, his first question on waking would be \"Has anyone proved the Riemann hypothesis?\". It is one of the Clay Mathematics Institute's [millennium problems](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), with a $1M reward available for its solution.\n\nMichael Atiyah is a very eminent mathematician indeed. He was awarded the [Fields medal](https://www.mathunion.org/fileadmin/IMU/Prizes/Fields/1966/index.html#0x82496a1f_0x0005ea06) in 1966 and the [Abel prize](http://www.abelprize.no/nyheter/vis.html?tid=46013) in 2004. He has been President of the Royal Society and Master of Trinity College, Cambridge. He is in these respects exactly the sort of person who should be solving famous open problems.\n\nOn the other hand, he is 89 years old, when mathematicians are generally well past their prime. A couple of years ago he published a paper claiming to prove another long-standing conjecture, namely that the 6-dimensional sphere admits no complex structure, and it seems to be generally felt that this paper does not come close to doing what it claims to do. Some mathematicians are [quite outspoken](https://twitter.com/johncarlosbaez/status/1042609961216335874) in suggesting that Atiyah's recent history makes it unlikely that he really has a proof of the Riemann hypothesis.\n\nSo we ask: **Does Atiyah have an actual proof of the Riemann hypothesis?** Or at least something near enough to one that it remains only to patch up a few small holes?\n\nto keep this question short term, we'll look at the reaction to Atiyah's lecture, with resolution as follows:\n\nTwo weeks after the lecture, we will collect all public statement by Fields-prize-winning mathematicians that express a firm opinion that either (a) Atiyah may well have proved the Riemann hypothesis, or (b) Atiyah's proof is fairly clearly flawed. The question will resolve positive if all firm statement are of type (a), negative if they are of type (b), and ambiguous if they are mixed or there are no such statement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1537829384.700923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1537829384.700923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09561200006163151 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.4058527338457423, 1.0004063054785108, 0.43776641345902195, 0.26540318263127977, 1.8053552144350489, 0.2223942771812562, 0.0, 0.4038734030575686, 0.9313987301006592, 2.7421311628650984, 0.0, 0.6454430936411023, 0.0, 0.04047265058918101, 0.2517134242951844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10131440540223047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2260363116887041, 0.1139394255878376, 0.052446473270009945, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.1238754396273729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6234812623228865, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09249024938796033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.3172727141285407, "coverage": 0.6606470776038867, "baseline_score": 42.86121726630543, "spot_peer_score": -5.111003627203858, "peer_archived_score": 3.3172727141285407, "baseline_archived_score": 42.86121726630543, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.111003627203858 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1537825244.93544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1537825244.93544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9354204692255395, 0.06457953077446052 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1451, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bitcoin-reach-a-price-above-12000-usd-btc-before-end-of-the-year-2018", "author_id": 106096, "author_username": "marekstopka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-18T22:47:05.284967Z", "published_at": "2018-09-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.839965Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T16:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T16:17:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1451, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018?", "created_at": "2018-09-18T22:47:05.284967Z", "open_time": "2018-09-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-21T03:20:46.384477Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-21T03:20:46.384477Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T16:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T16:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T16:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-23T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After they soared so high in 2017, 2018 has not been kind to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, many of which have been in slow and steady decline. But as of start of fall, they may have leveled off. Will there now be an increase? We ask:\n\n*** Will one BTC be at or above 12000 USD at least at one point between 20th September 2018 and 31st December 2018 on [coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)? ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1451, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1542999294.981553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1542999294.981553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.041662819033202014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.368503112203799, 2.4078236047869384, 0.7297229591901011, 1.4013823375662375, 2.3218326104263416, 0.596207977339327, 0.2499090276417072, 0.8972605320371946, 0.28848934677429744, 0.3214556394468343, 0.0030945933634633337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015551398449216904, 0.003423546585154462, 0.0, 0.008557061170913127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022552317107906307, 0.0, 0.7167717572592296, 0.0, 0.435496875982284, 0.0, 0.004490587908692196, 0.006040225766337409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060623639087390144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013038389190179645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01889469055248197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017044834789565235 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.976560601059992, "coverage": 0.9919917640252572, "baseline_score": 89.5439827014005, "spot_peer_score": 47.216757984232096, "peer_archived_score": 11.976560601059992, "baseline_archived_score": 89.5439827014005, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.216757984232096 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1542663250.940337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1542663250.940337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9072000532408137, 0.0927999467591863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1444, "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", "short_title": "First openly LGBTQ US President by 2041?", "url_title": "First openly LGBTQ US President by 2041?", "slug": "first-openly-lgbtq-us-president-by-2041", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:59:24.683030Z", "published_at": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T11:27:06.717058Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 207, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1444, "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:59:24.683030Z", "open_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-08T16:54:26.446000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-08T16:54:26.446000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2041-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n\n + Publicly identify as something else than cisgender.\n + Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\n\nResolution will be by credible media reports.", "fine_print": "Old resolution criteria:\n\n> This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.", "post_id": 1444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762946816.290877, "end_time": 1769640134.019573, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762946816.290877, "end_time": 1769640134.019573, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.18989009814605637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.575640603719585, 1.4518258304114142, 0.0, 1.2559053543685263, 0.0, 0.35765991403982167, 0.0005795363196005204, 0.31274837863298327, 1.5801191257236469, 1.281996596093435, 3.3422061504331033, 0.14270420050033678, 1.361964860066656, 0.05898958864583331, 0.3428411063084884, 0.6826343461962012, 0.0004947744963364308, 1.2485926108097951, 0.0, 0.038601520717181384, 2.0111784624561007, 0.8561433909870619, 0.05044587031821112, 0.4173248261705411, 0.2974581228833882, 1.5039033432022406, 0.0816303343181609, 0.0002099626142145211, 0.903396105691803, 0.0, 1.6294569797898433, 0.0, 0.20500482114439583, 0.027304550683091882, 0.5572009105164116, 0.7306809175406979, 0.8630906216734702, 0.1165312866328434, 0.008221346114662131, 0.016414140078208198, 1.252363441248031, 0.0001045347819065672, 0.0, 3.532727656848774e-05, 0.03970569511431692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020437151708130236, 0.09373523053758119, 0.006955573187750389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11691185086276902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027403324046078076, 0.0, 0.018863214499386747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009182895851270429, 5.425743306056552e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0858930630332506, 0.0, 0.0005357455979726682, 0.0, 0.0015960747049209923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03284026412521656, 0.005226145903466135, 0.0, 0.0011814672016414152, 0.0002747765843436636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12274421343306358, 0.0, 1.1118316018800408e-05, 0.0003560901326873081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10375188083418077 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289263.747893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289263.747893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8960848098583851, 0.10391519014161485 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 506, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male." }, { "id": 1443, "title": "Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pope-francis-resign-by-the-end-of-the-year", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:53:11.278585Z", "published_at": "2018-09-27T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.609971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-27T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:47:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-27T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1443, "title": "Will Pope Francis resign by the end of 2018?", "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:53:11.278585Z", "open_time": "2018-09-27T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-27T15:53:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-27T15:53:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-10T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-10T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "in a May 15 homily, Pope Francis hinted that he may not remain the Holy See that much longer. \r\n\r\nThe Catholic News Agency [reported](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/pope-francis-holy-spirit-tells-bishops-and-popes-when-to-step-down-83226):\r\n\r\n> the pope noted that St. Paul, who was “compelled by the Holy Spirit” to leave Ephesus and journey to Jerusalem, “shows us the pathway for every bishop when it’s time to take his leave and step down... When I read this, I think about myself,” Pope Francis said, “because I am a bishop and I must take my leave and step down... All pastors must take our leave. There comes a moment where the Lord tells us: go somewhere else, go there, go this way, come to me. And one of the steps a pastor must do is to prepare himself to take good leave, not to leave halfway.\"\r\n\r\nPope Francis had previously alluded to the idea that he might not remain Pope into 2019. As this 2017 article from Crux [noted](https://cruxnow.com/vatican/2017/04/09/pope-francis-hints-may-not-around-2019/) in the context of Catholic Church’s World Youth Day (which will be held in Panama in 2019), Pope Francis told a crowd at St. Mary Major basilica: “I don’t know if it will be me, but the pope will be in Panama!”\r\n\r\nMeanwhile, the Pope is facing [internal calls for resignation](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/28/17787810/catholic-church-pope-francis-resign-politics-vigano-letter-schism) in light of the church's sex abuse scandals. \r\n\r\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if Pope Francis publically announces (but does not necessarily complete) his resignation before the year is out.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1443, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539151417.161362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539151417.161362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.107351884700579 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3052732037522734, 1.3480343187987398, 0.014726095723060564, 1.9798499876797013, 3.4337817768771237, 0.8555868248117431, 0.7301332734114853, 0.6043217826949578, 0.0, 1.2063433963777008, 0.012230076273606092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3844868792451258, 0.3119663707609256, 0.35433368299953827, 0.034361985631411136, 0.9498287257693214, 0.05431093279464273, 1.8105269359700222, 0.8177986337571093, 0.02483851727222615, 0.0176237921110215, 0.01735823597809513, 0.1776120458747278, 0.24984530511785613, 0.0, 0.7920517361670656, 0.0, 0.1810462264698236, 0.0837354744485612, 0.04678886020864767, 0.009300927782859604, 0.07665567000059223, 0.010341937614826494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9444225934876818, "coverage": 0.9995687750943754, "baseline_score": 70.08055208385082, "spot_peer_score": -7.664987499996808, "peer_archived_score": 1.9444225934876818, "baseline_archived_score": 70.08055208385082, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.664987499996808 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539120913.060437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539120913.060437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8989058264220556, 0.1010941735779444 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1442, "title": "Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" surface before Election Day, 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-authenticated-tape-of-trump-saying-the-n-word-behind-the-scenes-of-the-apprentice-surface-before-election-day-2020", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:50:40.115497Z", "published_at": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.531311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:06:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1442, "title": "Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" surface before Election Day, 2020?", "created_at": "2018-09-16T23:50:40.115497Z", "open_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-20T14:30:31.549897Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-20T14:30:31.549897Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-11-03T09:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-11-03T09:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the run-up to the 2016 Presidential election, reality TV insiders claimed that video footage of Donald Trump taken on the set of \"The Apprentice\" showed him making racially insenitive remarks (e.g. using the n-word) and otherwise acting boorishly. The tapes, if they exist, have not yet come to light. But the hunt is on.\n\nIn fact, Actor Tom Arnold--who is starring in a new Viceland show called \"[Hunt for the Trump Tapes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV3TsEsfvl4)\"--claims to have new and damaging evidence. \n\nMGM and Mark Burnett--who produced \"The Apprentice\"--have refused to release tapes from their show and have denied that Trump made racist comments.\n\nABC News has a good summary of the claims and counterclaims [here](https://abcnews.go.com/US/alleged-trump-apprentice-tapes/story?id=57192712).\n\nFor the question to resolve positive, an independently authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of \"The Apprentice\" must be released to the general public by November 3, 2020 (election day).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546226106.607419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546226106.607419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21596673372944478 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.31138354711481286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003390634142220875, 0.045779439086610973, 0.005203922487547954, 0.44279550561171177, 0.36108872414156856, 0.0, 1.9785366990217095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5633522238557361, 2.233241979080626, 0.0, 0.672380161834255, 0.21943807023132875, 1.0, 2.0774144076493184, 0.0029154755316827537, 1.298373316864033, 0.11714469491552423, 0.28766362132846024, 0.23610931490602466, 0.0, 0.3915107710373727, 0.8451517062867188, 0.0, 1.7442841361341963, 0.12595925847878922, 0.0735745112257633, 0.02951742757107075, 0.022284863956958473, 0.23453145474236464, 0.0, 0.1950903406001404, 0.006737946999085467, 0.00069754105036468, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18873289625203288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06887619374122553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1010847436907371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010803727721577746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.253667779560533, "coverage": 0.999381563094859, "baseline_score": 68.11353212015851, "spot_peer_score": -0.8626198211199114, "peer_archived_score": 6.253667779560533, "baseline_archived_score": 68.11353212015851, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8626198211199114 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546119831.734584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546119831.734584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8603846519164586, 0.1396153480835413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1433, "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", "short_title": "College Admissions Decline by 2025", "url_title": "College Admissions Decline by 2025", "slug": "college-admissions-decline-by-2025", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-12T18:40:35.989186Z", "published_at": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T20:06:40.236171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1433, "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", "created_at": "2018-09-12T18:40:35.989186Z", "open_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-16T04:10:29.046755Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-16T04:10:29.046755Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, <a href=\"https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp\n\">from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.</a>\n\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan <a href=\"https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html\">has recently argued</a> that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\n\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist <a href=\"https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/\">who has been placing bets on this.</a>\n\n**Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?**\n\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less *in 2025* <a href=\"https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp\n\">as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics</a>.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1433, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763367839.399268, "end_time": 1764134874.260412, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763367839.399268, "end_time": 1764134874.260412, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.21729509454865173 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3160553805267865, 0.5474180530484027, 0.7275703736104373, 0.6835854396792213, 0.39399817220008165, 0.31483007189827616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17948651977621094, 0.07489538194570286, 3.006029665379465, 0.11355538817762112, 1.3896741508565131, 1.3047763207640426, 0.0, 0.15241072054157495, 0.1386378778278722, 0.2839493128525938, 0.035201554049220755, 0.10611903764842559, 1.5175908135889036, 0.15398265427978586, 0.46771217623817773, 0.0, 0.012890887673771771, 0.20619714098776143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2240468535554652, 0.0, 0.05460619026320151, 0.031477516432158854, 0.06482859797375792, 0.26916280940986137, 0.0002809175117399587, 0.0332671895699536, 0.0, 0.019549436878526404, 0.6527822562352956, 0.0, 0.0006390070510595393, 0.0032840439631166654, 0.2057686509579239, 0.5568821588966554, 0.0, 0.0005046411140264085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038602352720193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5849213363977527, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0028798828583328074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8541214223446619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016134421732207857 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288678.986689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288678.986689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9941309160489747, 0.0058690839510252045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 398, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1432, "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", "short_title": "Sustainable Off-Earth Human Colony by 2100", "url_title": "Sustainable Off-Earth Human Colony by 2100", "slug": "sustainable-off-earth-human-colony-by-2100", "author_id": 106635, "author_username": "Pshyeah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-12T10:21:53.325636Z", "published_at": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T09:46:50.009512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 629, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1432, "title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", "created_at": "2018-09-12T10:21:53.325636Z", "open_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-16T23:54:33.756000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-16T23:54:33.756000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, *[The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3)*. In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\n\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\n\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The *[Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir)* was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The *[International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station)* took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \n\nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2100, there is a settlement(s) off-Earth with over 2,000 5+ year residents that are [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763891199.429751, "end_time": 1785588505.615, "forecaster_count": 625, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763891199.429751, "end_time": 1785588505.615, "forecaster_count": 625, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4216044470138487 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.470899776210173, 1.090871335422785, 1.448322904081063, 0.20380325667517746, 5.005412543297265e-05, 0.5095702798205186, 0.2479509315686577, 0.0, 0.9801908254692341, 0.24162997427799612, 4.278625623975259, 0.0, 0.6465980391174986, 0.12967980514504884, 0.021118085178860064, 0.684950075576278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29842235618754454, 0.2698609878006101, 3.0865287060694047, 0.6423633821890855, 5.602796437537268e-09, 0.07350782752898775, 0.5614926205297703, 1.0164820948353253, 0.19527292337710242, 0.0, 1.5106951315641837, 0.0, 0.7051226649919156, 0.1498871578005027, 0.4529250002967096, 0.26481711437603433, 0.05975182780629738, 0.1669708219388288, 0.03917332092037992, 0.011592911840995859, 0.10161452028018787, 0.06241940200347918, 2.7801730519798338, 0.0, 0.5337337076694672, 0.2520882698471016, 0.05703692699886416, 0.0200413187415703, 0.0005550135385057057, 0.009387258964059553, 0.18863756501577428, 0.005187952629448085, 1.5413710000655034, 0.9258040966361916, 0.009769985291918009, 0.012229903440043524, 0.0, 1.8277508475053432, 0.23672751846119497, 0.0938605658157432, 0.0, 0.0002808061474140255, 3.2845232270903764, 0.07671927599043968, 0.007617348694052377, 0.0016124383006100424, 0.0936771376616056, 1.2269357955368192, 0.8676412869105541, 0.02866506664618558, 0.0038381728584219042, 0.0007313324518912446, 1.80992264097425, 0.0014356515096780181, 0.006648283195119403, 0.011832718273207374, 0.12432461151475656, 1.095758545762354, 0.0009291477574854014, 0.04527040127640414, 4.139937718785167e-08, 0.003967269711112426, 2.546830836468979, 0.017510556529504704, 0.916487046387165, 0.35372719174662126, 0.8627462455424351, 1.1026509242676847, 0.039720894099218175, 0.0591346236569122, 3.1320276992824536e-05, 8.443735595457469e-05, 1.209316376790206, 1.417484716041884e-08, 0.0009954621055969263, 0.004498182871923744, 0.0026125170987348445, 0.16062347542129882, 4.5399929762484854e-05, 0.0013038416598913159, 0.0, 1.413499383622399 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289011.53671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 539, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289011.53671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 539, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47559238393416203, 0.524407616065838 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 85, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1279, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, *[The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3)*. In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\n\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\n\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The *[Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir)* was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The *[International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station)* took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \n\nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars." }, { "id": 1429, "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime", "author_id": 103799, "author_username": "Dustyblue", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-09T20:55:24.609907Z", "published_at": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.956962Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1429, "title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?", "created_at": "2018-09-09T20:55:24.609907Z", "open_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-17T04:21:10.375718Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-17T04:21:10.375718Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \n\nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \n\nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\n\n*** Will Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? ***\n\nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1429, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1559349416.526839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1559349416.526839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.47123484957981643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3341756031631401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.882493535772869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01899178413341883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2992119338252941, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31747034037139565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09022908093720004, 0.14967499148627067, 0.6462048360077935, 0.0, 0.6831013776873005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39858251485999874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25819147560843936, 0.5677319155252634, 0.6506935385730681, 0.5604905061740477, 1.7288472840026776, 0.48978511741558245, 0.0023291363431415532, 1.9459333403100771, 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.5241070816719129, 0.2825623048074988, 0.0, 0.021936199508452464, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.777238463870146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20351910434463424, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1795449210440954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.038142496490550196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4405277360482024 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1558550249.320621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1558550249.320621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7506340547027964, 0.24936594529720355 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1424, "title": "Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-effective-altruism-movement-continue-to-grow-through-2020", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-07T11:05:28.490107Z", "published_at": "2018-09-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.034631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-09-01T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-01T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T00:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T00:16:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1424, "title": "Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?", "created_at": "2018-09-07T11:05:28.490107Z", "open_time": "2018-09-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-13T19:53:08.495452Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-13T19:53:08.495452Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T00:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-03T00:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-03T00:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-01T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/\">Giving What We Can</a> and <a href=\"https://www.givewell.org/\">Givewell</a>.\n\nSince then, <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things\">around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes</a> to the world’s most effective charities, <a href=\" https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0\">thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world</a>. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively<a href=\" http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/\"> donate around $5-10M each year</a>, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, <a href=\" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants\">which has made around $600M of charitable grants</a>. <a href=\" http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1ef/is_ea_growing_some_ea_growth_metrics_for_2017/\"> \n\nAccording to various metrics</a>, the Effective Altruism movement is growing, but will it continue to do so?\n\n**Will the total interest in <a href=\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism\">Effective Altruism on Google Trends</a> in 2020 be more than 1.5 times the total interest in 2017?**\n\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1424, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1567330838.085042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1567330838.085042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38595907903994964 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02370560915263767, 0.0, 0.6680678481628474, 0.07135992765463955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05800111438144283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07555818145441323, 0.0, 0.0, 3.195272781309574, 0.0, 0.1996833640391919, 0.6749728058064157, 0.7325609283431815, 0.9317548474877237, 0.2841333089510901, 0.08461681491281751, 0.9211515316763241, 0.0, 0.1458926235020598, 0.8373804229016928, 0.0, 0.6143107788921861, 0.0, 0.3274317076778759, 0.21016597138970805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6634837519250257, 0.85922674850886, 0.0, 1.553194097694135, 0.0, 1.1777291282762663, 0.13848612041955394, 0.170989411581081, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5381939383836873, 0.6381993542524377, 0.0673695156285134, 0.7654585712607964, 0.0, 0.2315016897858973, 0.6191141462757109, 0.4190654316068577, 0.0, 0.9812766138149263, 0.22106860253795446, 0.0, 0.000812677663835723, 0.39151929690814635, 0.00887455477665474, 0.014839467733474528, 0.0, 0.001733146577529624, 0.041900231805098435, 0.008226635416206747, 0.004743880385666998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006019093013615877, 0.09526084868169402, 0.0015666163036862494, 0.0033427467086007147, 0.0, 0.0010223199877964217, 0.027507160408604202, 0.0, 0.015816301336281435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011919095974040044, 0.000593280431714998, 0.0001975755397793671, 0.0, 8.62882871469968e-05, 0.021562314081422368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003219250185297715, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46102521199430874 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.273677657108134, "coverage": 0.999960325071826, "baseline_score": -31.3136116069, "spot_peer_score": 3.3677549564678317, "peer_archived_score": 31.273677657108134, "baseline_archived_score": -31.3136116069, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3677549564678317 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1566921456.094122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1566921456.094122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7898624824612257, 0.21013751753877427 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 271, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1591, "title": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?", "short_title": "EA Google Trends 2017-2030 decline < 80%?", "url_title": "EA Google Trends 2017-2030 decline < 80%?", "slug": "ea-google-trends-2017-2030-decline-80", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-07T11:05:28.490107Z", "published_at": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:48:45.723841Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1591, "title": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?", "created_at": "2018-09-07T11:05:28.490107Z", "open_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-27T03:36:53.355000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-27T03:36:53.355000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/\">Giving What We Can</a> and <a href=\"https://www.givewell.org/\">Givewell</a>.\n\nSince then, <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things\">around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes</a> to the world’s most effective charities, <a href=\" https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0\">thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world</a>. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively<a href=\" http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/\"> donate around $5-10M each year</a>, has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, <a href=\" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants\">which has made around $600M of charitable grants</a>.\n\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?", "resolution_criteria": "**Will the total interest in <a href=\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism\">Effective Altruism on Google Trends</a> in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?**\n\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \n\n*Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1591, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763305635.752384, "end_time": 1765053973.63349, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763305635.752384, "end_time": 1765053973.63349, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7601837822450734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04285069030564917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024287392581415282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015999109858631472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7470313596766492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060225374110303345, 0.3937814695746743, 0.0, 0.0, 1.035413541969289, 0.48903451853689905, 0.5790626283974287, 0.24070383636613332, 0.02195372606413221, 0.08434836204916665, 0.23720240221913333, 0.0, 0.6255425631778505, 0.0045112856628413515, 0.0, 0.052309266606642604, 0.0, 0.14435670794403951, 0.033416827120458216, 0.16702785955340174, 0.7536093823769099, 1.0584228933539106, 0.0, 0.014326247536910926, 1.2986266248806764, 2.0060581702085654, 0.4813683892762976, 0.7071315862608292, 0.0, 0.3321977744619591, 1.00567299705901, 0.046843471097372705, 0.2542776093169868, 0.3109996625627898, 0.0, 0.4711023180563392, 0.9226739068015568, 0.13404309120326557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.869595824337926, 0.2720962540814778, 0.05575177713795103, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288844.199249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288844.199249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2614946242720084, 0.7385053757279916 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 213, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/\">Giving What We Can</a> and <a href=\"https://www.givewell.org/\">Givewell</a>.\n\nSince then, <a href=\"https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things\">around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes</a> to the world’s most effective charities, <a href=\" https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0\">thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world</a>. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively<a href=\" http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/\"> donate around $5-10M each year</a>, has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, <a href=\" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants\">which has made around $600M of charitable grants</a>.\n\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?" } ] }