Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5860
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5840", "results": [ { "id": 1420, "title": "Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apples-market-cap-exceed-amazons-on-february-1-2019", "author_id": 100518, "author_username": "traviswfisher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-06T15:52:07.316642Z", "published_at": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.288384Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-06T16:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-06T16:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T21:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T21:37:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1420, "title": "Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019?", "created_at": "2018-09-06T15:52:07.316642Z", "open_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-09T21:43:22.299518Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-09T21:43:22.299518Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T21:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T21:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-01T21:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-06T16:51:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-06T16:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On August 2, 2018, Apple became the first conpany to have a market cap over one trillion dollars. Five weeks later Amazon became the second.\n\nThis question asks, six months after Apple reached that milestone, will it still be bigger than Amazon?\n\nThis resolves positively if the market cap of Apple as of market close on Friday, February 1, 2019, is higher than that of Amazon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541520386.771806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541520386.771806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.625905490691825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.023612791704479896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20565553100230474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1351453996240435, 0.9531515036955779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12379696394240604, 1.1512149923808774, 0.0, 0.052332631715494016, 1.2006340794376071, 0.008686660616741733, 0.3167586346448319, 0.0300971136065479, 0.3542463301646753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33172868336305994, 0.769009528437769, 0.020796234419099814, 0.0, 0.047096766477849196, 0.026706158979239943, 1.9161438448122832, 0.07086722813984636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2388829703215434, 0.7190903954441952, 0.0, 0.47427559963987037, 0.3286647279806401, 1.3707382746095247, 0.03964002530987965, 0.003195643853332925, 0.0, 0.05801885663667797, 0.14529867435228833, 0.0, 0.6275971475575431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09434453935808916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.877925459907288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2824978853514211 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 29.18845342787739, "coverage": 0.9984465468456268, "baseline_score": -30.569318710392636, "spot_peer_score": 13.707067361297002, "peer_archived_score": 29.18845342787739, "baseline_archived_score": -30.569318710392636, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.707067361297002 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541520386.796301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541520386.796301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5372287612498106, 0.4627712387501895 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1421, "title": "Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-identity-of-the-anonymous-administration-figure-who-authored-the-nyt-editorial-be-discovered-by-nov-6-2018", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-05T22:31:30.487110Z", "published_at": "2018-09-07T15:56:08.265000Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.152088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-07T15:56:08.265000Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-06T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-07T15:56:08.265000Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1421, "title": "Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018?", "created_at": "2018-09-05T22:31:30.487110Z", "open_time": "2018-09-07T15:56:08.265000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-07T22:04:01.679634Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-07T22:04:01.679634Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-06T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In an unusual development, the New York Times published an [anonymous editorial](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) by a senior Trump administration figure explaining how Trump has been tempered and managed by (self-proclaimed) saner and more reasonable minds. It's a rather amazing (while also utterly unsurprising) read.\n\n*** Will the author of this editorial become publicly known by the time of the midterm elections? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a reliable media report indicates with very high probability the author of the editorial, based on leaked information, direct admission, statement by the NYT, firing by the administration (with this given as the reason), etc. (i.e. not simply on circumstantial evidence or probabilistic analysis.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1421, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538864061.140153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538864061.140153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2420373766705068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.226954187671951, 0.1529072034917331, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609726698816549, 0.0, 1.378951925606947, 0.2693389084925394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.16013327013337617, 0.08242718059449448, 0.1900906837396931, 0.0, 0.48529413660216764, 1.480232644548431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056092696376304166, 1.9512225289672054, 0.7021345863207582, 0.24663311523851789, 0.07265114882265855, 0.0, 1.1016778150407283, 0.008335175629822337, 0.0, 0.1130965568839125, 1.536445049204254, 1.3458040278164782, 0.0, 0.2347694085184629, 0.0, 0.04961809028037504, 0.5724651626120125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.8394799688108832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0966538415518712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1889841943955908, 0.09674286297363076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011907120799753684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05416656778952044, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.00047118769608376065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.959429724865583, "coverage": 0.9992491864426122, "baseline_score": 53.97497090879356, "spot_peer_score": 32.20149460220995, "peer_archived_score": 21.959429724865583, "baseline_archived_score": 53.97497090879356, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.20149460220995 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538864061.181127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538864061.181127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5666452155344296, 0.4333547844655704 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1417, "title": "Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-recent-paper-claiming-a-breakthrough-in-high-t-superconductivity-be-published-in-nature", "author_id": 105855, "author_username": "Ben", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-05T19:09:39.380527Z", "published_at": "2018-09-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.114842Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T11:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T11:52:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1417, "title": "Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?", "created_at": "2018-09-05T19:09:39.380527Z", "open_time": "2018-09-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-05T23:23:46.020936Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-05T23:23:46.020936Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T11:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-01T11:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-01T11:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Extraordinary claims, vestiges of a scandal, fake emails… is this a US election? Nope, it’s contemporary science. \nI confess that I only have a dubious conception of [superconductors](http://www.supraconductivite.fr/en/index.php). Despite my sophomoric understanding, even I can see the monumental implications of such a technology. \nIn [“Evidence for Superconductivity at Ambient Temperature and Pressure in Nanostructures”](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1807/1807.08572.pdf) authors Dev Kumar Thapa and Anshu Pandey from the Solid State and Structural Chemistry Unit at the Indian Institute of Science make a stunning claim.\n>Despite being a low temperature phenomenon till date, superconductivity has found numerous applications in diverse fields of medicine, science and engineering. The great scientific interest in the phenomenon as well as its practical utility has motivated extensive efforts to discover and understand new superconductors. We report the observation of superconductivity at ambient temperature and pressure conditions in films and pellets of a nanostructured material that is composed of silver particles embedded into a gold matrix. Specifically, we observe that upon cooling below 236K at ambient pressures, the resistance of sample films drops below 0-4 Ohm, being limited by instrument sensitivity. Further, below the transition temperature, samples become strongly diamagnetic, with volume susceptibilities as low as -0.056. We further describe methods to tune the transition to temperatures higher than room temperature. (https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1807/1807.08572.pdf)\n\nThis article evoked caution and incredulity from the scientific community. [The plot thickens.](https://www.wired.com/story/the-curious-case-of-a-revolutionary-but-imaginary-superconductor/?__twitter_impression=true&mbid=social_twitter) Brian Skinner, an MIT researcher, ran a analysis of the data in Thapa’s and Pandey’s article. \n>The graph plots a material’s magnetic susceptibility - the degree at which the material becomes magnetized after a magnetic field is applied - at a given temperature. The jump up in magnetic susceptibility is when the material is approaching its critical temperature to become superconductive.\nSkinner noticed that the pattern of green and blue data plots are pretty much exact copies of each other only shifted down by a constant amount. He consulted other physicists at MIT and elsewhere to see if they had encountered anything like it in their experiments. But all of them were very baffled by it and could think of no obvious explanation for it.\n\nThis reminded many scientists of the [Schon scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal), including Pratap Raychaudhuri, a professor at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in India . So he takes to [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/pratap.raychaudhuri/posts/10155728182613601) to say as much, and then things get downright scandalous. Raychaudhuri gets an email from T. V. Ramakrishnan, a well known theoretical condensed matter physicist, telling him not to publicly rebuke Thapa and Pandley. Raychaudhuri fires off a response to Ramakrishnan, and then he gets a phone call from Ramakrishnan saying that **he never sent that email**. It was a fake email sent from an account originating in Switzerland. Oh my beloved science, who says you cannot be just as exciting as a typical tabloid magazine? \n\nBack to the question. As of Sept 5, 2018 the article had been submitted to _Nature_ for review. Question resolves as affirmative if the article gets published in _Nature_ by April 1, 2019. Resolves negatively if it is published in another Journal prior to that date, or unpublished as of that date.\n\nCloses retroactively if it the resolution condition is definitively satisfied at on a date earlier than 4/1/19, two days prior to that satisfaction date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1417, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541325193.985899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541325193.985899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.09466762336235612 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.8075460644326142, 0.15357916941757593, 0.40134420482740707, 0.0775933119432191, 3.198184804073159, 0.25615966635426196, 0.0, 0.3249648018114994, 1.8681851641269942, 1.141186670057156, 0.0, 1.1646911407063336, 0.0, 0.8555642534344532, 0.5207309025640577, 0.0, 0.17890252631202977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9984362808056646, 0.0, 0.10992481778615364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5599863307346932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08526510139559185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0485569039707762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.293868434543568, "coverage": 0.9750275205124775, "baseline_score": 88.71921151666068, "spot_peer_score": 5.094628151824615, "peer_archived_score": 5.293868434543568, "baseline_archived_score": 88.71921151666068, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.094628151824615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540781902.26626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540781902.26626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9279079863321683, 0.07209201366783166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1414, "title": "Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-texas-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2018", "author_id": 103764, "author_username": "aran", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-04T05:23:34.726326Z", "published_at": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.646762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-07T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-07T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1414, "title": "Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?", "created_at": "2018-09-04T05:23:34.726326Z", "open_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-08T10:00:02.839584Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-08T10:00:02.839584Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-07T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-07T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-04T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Expanding on the aggregate question [How many US Senate seats will Democrats control after 2018 midterm elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/673/how-many-seats-in-the-us-senate-will-democrats-win-in-2018/), this focuses on one US Senate race that has become unusually close:\n\nTexas last elected a Democratic senator when Lloyd Bentsen was reelected in 1988; Ted Cruz was elected in 2012 by 16 points. However, several polls that have shown the Democrat challenger Beto O'Rourke trailing by a few percentage points have caused RealClearPolitics to declare the race a Tossup (other forecasters remain on Lean or Likely Republican). As yet, no polls have shown Ted Cruz behind.\n\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/) calculated that August polls (in all states) have predicted the final result with an 8 point margin of error on average (and as much as 14 points), leaving a wide range of possible outcomes.\n\nThis question asks: **Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1414, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541365469.414603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541365469.414603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2585479610352916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.864077707006859, 0.4047136378580917, 0.0, 0.0, 1.005003603627675, 0.0, 0.09516663388113575, 0.6897363155231898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10125528019699484, 0.001216459774363555, 0.0, 0.6509719498354889, 0.0, 1.8565665643026663, 1.5239361263863689, 2.08533095464712, 0.0, 0.40181930185574155, 1.2700497893795966, 1.228198647894269, 0.0, 0.027160761971936443, 0.0, 0.4934754554814419, 0.11319836390592457, 0.007051949679527717, 0.15374480840068938, 0.0, 0.6274350264342349, 0.4898973851024093, 0.0, 0.040417821797333525, 0.12839734462298194, 1.3280511420384484, 0.15853174174029872, 0.0028642989982272903, 0.0005584477293535452, 7.189976312634683e-05, 1.0104648741141204, 0.09499553263977667, 0.030155217685818185, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7704040986518335, 0.5431494768314674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015302637158901597, 0.05545444523764603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009152687100493903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022081332259353176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01916918666906778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10727108020770512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.102998834149124, "coverage": 0.9998737158996024, "baseline_score": 47.90006926901522, "spot_peer_score": -7.8219745100941145, "peer_archived_score": 9.102998834149124, "baseline_archived_score": 47.90006926901522, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.8219745100941145 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541365469.445504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541365469.445504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8131979996455911, 0.18680200035440883 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1412, "title": "Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jordan-peterson-endorse-maxime-bernier-as-canadas-next-prime-minister-ahead-of-the-2019-canadian-federal-election", "author_id": 103928, "author_username": "JayarLaFontaine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-02T20:59:22.828063Z", "published_at": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.411146Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-10-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-22T17:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-22T17:51:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1412, "title": "Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election?", "created_at": "2018-09-02T20:59:22.828063Z", "open_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-11T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-11T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-22T17:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-22T17:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-10-22T17:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-10-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-10-21T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Canada is heading into a federal election in the fall of 2019. Recently, [there has been a fracture in the Conservative Party of Canada](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-statement-conserative-1.4795894): the libertarian-leaning MP from Quebec, Maxime Bernier, left the party over complaints that it is \"morally and intellectually corrupt\" and beholden to special interest groups whom they serve at the public's expense. Bernier's acrimonious departure came after the Conservative Party caucus — mostly notably leader Andrew Scheer, [who beat Bernier by two percentage points during a 2017 leadership race](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/27/maxime-bernier-leads-tory-leadership-race-after-first-ballot-andrew-scheer-second.html) — [distanced themselves from him](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-bernier-caucus-scheer-1.4795623) in the wake of blowback to his comments addressing what he called the ruling Liberal party's policies of \"extreme diversity\".\n\nBernier has [declared his intentions to form his own federal political party and field candidates in all 338 of Canada's federal ridings](https://nationalpost.com/opinion/maxime-bernier-why-my-new-political-movement-because-canada-has-been-hijacked). He enjoys considerable grassroots support. A poll of a thousand Canadians shortly after he announced his intention to form a party found [13% of Canadians intended to cast their vote for its candidates](http://abacusdata.ca/will-max-bernier-be-a-spoiler-for-the-conservative-party/). While this is an impressive start, it's clear that Bernier has an uphill battle ahead of him in order to ascend to the Prime Ministership, or even to the Leader of the Official Opposition, a position currently occupied by his formal rival Scheer. \n\nOne big boost to Bernier's candidacy would be an endorsement from Canadian intellectual Jordan Peterson, [who is arguably the most well-known and popular intellectual in the Western world today](https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2018/03/16/jordan-peterson-is-trying-to-make-sense-of-the-world-including-his-own-strange-journey.html). His work — which is often articulated in bombastic popular lectures — covers topics such as free speech, identity, anti-totalitarianism, personality, performance, and religion, among many others. Peterson's reach is considerable: his lectures have been viewed nearly 70 million times on YouTube, and his new book, 12 Rules for Life, has sold over half a million copies. \n\nPeterson and Bernier have crossed paths before. Bernier cited a meeting with Jordan Peterson has having [changed his mind on endorsing Bill C-16](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-maxime-bernier-c-16-gender-1.3981691), which amends the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code to include the terms \"gender identity\" and \"gender expression\". [He met Peterson again and was photographed with him this past April at an event in Montreal](https://twitter.com/maximebernier/status/989970810679984128?lang=en), where he says the two of them spoke on the topic of freedom of speech. \n\n[Peterson considers himself to be a \"classical liberal\"](https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/jordan-peterson-claims-hes-no-conservative/), while Maxime resists political labelling but has suggested he himself might [reasonably be called a freedom-loving fiscal conservative, or a \"reasonable libertarian\"](https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/breakfast-with-bernier-1.3931417). Both share a dislike for the policies and perspectives of the current Prime Minster, Justin Trudeau, and his Liberal Party. \n\nWhile there is perhaps not much political space between Bernier and Peterson, its not clear that Peterson is in the business of offering political endorsements. He seems not to have made any publicly during the 2015 Canadian federal election. He did say, when asked, that he would be [open to endorsing candidate Tanya Granic Allen during the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race earlier this year](https://www.pressreader.com/canada/ottawa-citizen/20180301/281621010832293), but no such endorsement ever came. That said, he clearly has an interest in politics, and [even considered running in the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race](http://nymag.com/selectall/2018/02/jordan-peterson-reddits-new-favorite-philosopher.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=s3&utm_campaign=sharebutton-b) after the previous leader Patrick Brown resigned amidst allegations of sexual misconduct. \n\nPeterson's ideas have already had a large impact on Canadian politics at the federal and provincial level. It no doubt informed the pushback among federal Conservatives on Bill C-16, and has fueled the concerns of both federal and provincial conservatives regarding the [challenges to freedom of speech on the country's university campuses](https://globalnews.ca/news/3872432/andrew-scheer-laurier-university-free-speech/). \n\nJordan Peterson will be considered to have \"endorsed\" Maxime Bernier if he declares in a public statement or utterance that he endorses him to be Canada's next Prime Minister. Nothing short of an unequivocal endorsement — such as Peterson mentioning Bernier or his policies favourably in the media — will suffice.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1412, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1571669248.043628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1571669248.043628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09750153445523647 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.330418664087944, 0.673913162358795, 1.270587136251032, 0.9818539481259719, 1.4605555334882294, 0.39241044281454124, 0.7873596684122405, 0.26083873251928735, 0.0904897364644334, 2.1780628781236726, 0.10642834088513557, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.1691317229795503, 0.08330211214582241, 1.0, 0.2796605246591077, 0.36908865336759794, 0.0, 0.18214514839267099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12828056645840522, 0.542659352036535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04504395144454423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17087229778410717, 0.0, 0.3554191491242996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07034599129182002, 0.0998982988081353, 0.0, 0.035002023561757536, 0.0, 0.0591057465619563, 0.03548851998229902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008707034755549023, 0.0, 0.057547954866269097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004147367952591529, 0.009928975007740863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04101658622091283, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.02248592739820702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.93710249046964, "coverage": 0.9991577323998181, "baseline_score": 35.50377853032174, "spot_peer_score": 3.706605637724585, "peer_archived_score": 7.93710249046964, "baseline_archived_score": 35.50377853032174, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.706605637724585 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1571620005.445132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1571620005.445132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7795253325194504, 0.22047466748054956 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1408, "title": "Does P = NP?", "short_title": "P = NP is True", "url_title": "P = NP is True", "slug": "p-np-is-true", "author_id": 103304, "author_username": "isinlor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-09-02T12:17:09.881395Z", "published_at": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T22:43:29.067044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 274, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1408, "title": "Does P = NP?", "created_at": "2018-09-02T12:17:09.881395Z", "open_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-08T16:22:30.299459Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-08T16:22:30.299459Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\n\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)", "resolution_criteria": "If no award is given by the Clay Institute (between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100) for a proof or disproof of P = NP, this question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal *or* preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\n\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n\n1. 61 thought P≠NP.\n2. 9 thought P=NP.\n3. 4 thought that it is independent.\n4. 3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic.\n5. 1 said it would depend on the model.\n6. 22 offered no opinion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763937798.511596, "end_time": 1792935890.030701, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763937798.511596, "end_time": 1792935890.030701, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.06869866012152599 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.8667518603282245, 6.694226930715214, 3.940149417689561, 0.8535605681928731, 2.561967951524055, 4.249997831779734, 0.5885756468149149, 0.3273280704425033, 0.2580037528726235, 0.35133507554046434, 1.884198867884256, 0.2255044776973844, 0.813422844092078, 0.01673521393102069, 8.521961615532535e-05, 0.005525881335632029, 0.00030458454158322775, 0.5397021199922327, 0.0, 0.0009769758788405554, 0.1318636625868682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006515402115753464, 0.0, 0.31959028174869414, 0.6647136762282909, 0.14055139183635398, 0.00022516586777895418, 0.0, 0.10659089466619115, 0.0, 0.0013291485825369974, 4.028274258489537e-05, 2.2731481432537627e-05, 0.24098329720362666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051919975648411214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.455548582726858e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005406644878377655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.465293117576417e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.070621550229501e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015427945619184862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07103695394184399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009181615810166377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6242245863668239 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288722.069684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288722.069684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9924105169509791, 0.007589483049020801 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 493, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\n\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)" }, { "id": 1404, "title": "Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-amazon-announce-the-location-for-its-hq2-before-october-1-2018", "author_id": 105855, "author_username": "Ben", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-31T15:56:03.306153Z", "published_at": "2018-09-03T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.650703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-03T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T16:16:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-03T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1404, "title": "Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018?", "created_at": "2018-08-31T15:56:03.306153Z", "open_time": "2018-09-03T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-05T00:50:22.596772Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-05T00:50:22.596772Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T16:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-01T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Initially, the decision on the location for Amazon's massive HQ2 was supposed to have been handed down in early 2018. However, with a closed-door, national, billion-dollar bidding war in full swing, the assuredly-outrageous particulars of which [remain a mystery even to the people making the bids,](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/05/technology/amazon-headquarters-hq2.html) the momentum continues.\n\nWill Bezos finally put 19 cities (or just 1, depending on your point of view) out of their misery, by announcing where Amazon's next headquarters will be built on or before October 1, 2018? Resolves positive only if officially confirmed by a named representative of Amazon. Will resolve 1 (but not retroactively close) one day prior to the announcement if resolution is positive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538369941.770817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538369941.770817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.039534054606054726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.375431606511379, 0.05736130050041941, 0.0, 0.7860011674065981, 0.1961880233449377, 0.0, 0.09860213370765906, 0.08126255146963655, 0.0, 1.011015027600123, 0.6133032053396327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021416918649247395, 0.164365570835441, 0.0, 0.008061960629922116, 0.01352731712145787, 0.0, 0.2669743916604569, 0.0, 0.005175226808777721, 0.0025372866159333904, 0.506524249030845, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05147457643298148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07463110673437197, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01712440175196844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.052836327735362, "coverage": 0.9875683589409738, "baseline_score": 65.7579821012177, "spot_peer_score": -5.455337044907778, "peer_archived_score": 8.052836327735362, "baseline_archived_score": 65.7579821012177, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.455337044907778 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538307763.418942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538307763.418942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9272305995341291, 0.07276940046587085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1402, "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star", "author_id": 106558, "author_username": "suhdude", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-31T03:40:26.801087Z", "published_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.400695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:02:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1402, "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", "created_at": "2018-08-31T03:40:26.801087Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-06T17:24:26.073173Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-06T17:24:26.073173Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T00:02:26.386543Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\n\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\n\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\n\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\n\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1402, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754900317.044718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754900317.044718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.9085514950070025 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09230133153114897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02318751247977549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016874979261166931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018708537491927582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.882431206593951e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007783224494865335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006705873811975223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05003727178133165, 0.0005132289007417348, 0.05998026892111763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002518259061559092, 0.00297546390285349, 0.0022851573978883814, 0.0, 0.05317703566475671, 0.01059799648277256, 0.22026528569626924, 0.00013048243864862815, 0.08315035690703204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039930064612954806, 0.04157152307865022, 0.002770195827676131, 0.03022172810477587, 0.0, 0.23904496683591941, 0.0001604076277742201, 0.10687792566038573, 0.1475478002785898, 0.26408557366114616, 0.42266698966151056, 0.308507069719466, 0.085414602091117, 0.215434859733717, 0.12080178576827982, 1.1868993893858253, 0.8219716631822538, 0.23846194462876097, 0.0, 1.3306265808040445, 3.700672724956603, 0.39321878328618276, 0.12619760481240103, 0.0, 0.9342035070183844, 3.1817019557366533, 0.0, 1.4770979903978096, 1.1612518236727107, 3.6738737417949787 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.78097197009983, "peer_score": 18.812808907669204, "coverage": 0.9999654267251132, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999654267251132, "spot_peer_score": 6.484065598515272, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 70.78097197009983, "peer_archived_score": 18.812808907669204, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.484065598515272, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289802.773059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289802.773059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07012155475141835, 0.9298784452485817 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 345, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1394, "title": "Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?", "short_title": "Will AI progress surprise Metaculus", "url_title": "Will AI progress surprise Metaculus", "slug": "will-ai-progress-surprise-metaculus", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-25T08:00:04.906356Z", "published_at": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:20:07.855088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 536, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 1313, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Progress Essay Contest", "slug": "ai-fortified-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neural_net.png", "prize_pool": "6500.00", "start_date": "2022-02-08T13:02:52Z", "close_date": "2022-04-16T15:54:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the AI Progress Essay Contest! Metaculus aims to support accurate forecasting of and preparation for the impacts of transformative AI.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T01:32:31.710216Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1394, "title": "Will AI progress surprise us by predictions of AGI jumping sharply?", "created_at": "2018-08-25T08:00:04.906356Z", "open_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-28T21:14:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-28T21:14:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T16:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<p>Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to <a href=\"https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/\">AI Impacts</a>, discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:</p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A party gaining decisive strategic advantage</li>\r\n<li>A single important ‘deployment’ event</li>\r\n<li>Other very sudden and surprising events</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>A <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/\">previous question</a> did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the <a href=\"http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html\">odds</a> (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period.</p>", "resolution_criteria": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\r\n\r\nThis question resolves as **YES** if both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [Human Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date, and **NO** otherwise.\r\n\r\nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc.", "fine_print": "Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.", "post_id": 1394, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763521493.771541, "end_time": 1766235917.211163, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763521493.771541, "end_time": 1766235917.211163, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7538807974481508 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.022050899633038e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002832340411899728, 0.015469480759700288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7247586858217382, 9.196327230530304e-08, 0.004462787977124536, 0.0, 0.0, 8.759221751401507e-05, 0.3891721726089396, 3.270228662696447e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007379060058842451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.685817105890104, 0.0, 0.022448069292846904, 0.48199078451305155, 0.01647122306773935, 0.79224093242012, 0.0, 0.14143837897008965, 0.0, 0.00841447906226583, 1.1809761906611895e-07, 4.4279697628853016e-05, 0.13217581258177405, 9.532618000953896e-05, 0.019248071534596973, 0.046196100007267725, 0.00927849815947796, 0.0018272163985847913, 0.002178947607138819, 3.3740302486015706e-05, 1.951998829511172e-06, 2.267997049031936e-05, 0.36235753294628714, 0.31538184814907666, 0.001382139888951294, 0.00012535969492943931, 0.002946748113337639, 0.886759319922823, 0.7096724910776486, 0.0017238484605674026, 0.0, 1.3246872286785768e-05, 0.9077971015510019, 0.039831295410493156, 0.006681999241255388, 0.06969881973480435, 0.004777011977605973, 1.1289102728716567, 0.572439914118211, 0.4413871074630151, 0.010981238878878474, 0.378733940573091, 1.6042222839910936, 0.04240689869992137, 0.01715604311059042, 0.17001736804808848, 0.5127370640748485, 4.517291282283616, 0.39457940530491165, 0.007054884469899161, 0.5937830303986757, 0.9590218066965478, 4.72186411219379, 0.09678280330782056, 0.16568384553925242, 0.7997475112394751, 0.2550816781999005, 1.4346975558395139, 0.07562958129976477, 0.0002240230487525475, 1.2977773777309756, 0.1895869993459266, 6.850694864006626, 0.5058068274773863, 0.7988474522564896, 0.1747789682457548, 0.0, 0.0801327481779935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0404488459462464 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288795.090931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 526, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288795.090931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 526, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27420356938389445, 0.7257964306161055 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 88, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1055, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<p>Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to <a href=\"https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/\">AI Impacts</a>, discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:</p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A party gaining decisive strategic advantage</li>\r\n<li>A single important ‘deployment’ event</li>\r\n<li>Other very sudden and surprising events</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>A <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/\">previous question</a> did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the <a href=\"http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html\">odds</a> (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period.</p>" }, { "id": 1387, "title": "Who will win the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "who-will-win-the-royal-society-insight-investment-science-book-prize", "author_id": 107022, "author_username": "Peter13", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-22T08:34:08.210265Z", "published_at": "2018-08-29T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.842174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-29T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T23:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T23:10:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-29T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1387, "title": "Who will win the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?", "created_at": "2018-08-22T08:34:08.210265Z", "open_time": "2018-08-29T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T23:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-01T23:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-01T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On August 2nd, 2018, the shortlist for the [Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize](https://royalsociety.org/grants-schemes-awards/book-prizes/science-book-prize/) was released. The winner will be announced at an award ceremony on October 1st and receive £25,000.\n\nThe shortlisted works are all over the scientific spectrum from the the interaction of humanity and machines to the strange behaviours present in the animal kingdom. Of the six nominees, Mark Miodownik is the only one to have been previously nominated. He won the [2014 prize](https://royalsociety.org/grants-schemes-awards/book-prizes/science-book-prize/2014/) for his book *Stuff Matters*.\n\nThe books are as follows:\n\n1. *Inventing Ourselves: The Secret Life of the Teenage Brain* by Sarah-Jayne Blakemore\n\n2. *The Unexpected Truth About Animals* by Lucy Cooke\n\n3. *The Beautiful Cure: Harnessing Your Body’s Natural Defences* by Daniel M Davis\n\n4. *Hello World: How to be Human in the Age of the Machine* by Hannah Fry\n\n5. *Liquid: The Delightful and Dangerous Substances That Flow Through Our Lives* by Mark Miodownik\n\n6. *Exactly: How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World* by Simon Winchester\n\nSince Metaculus, at present, is not set up for non-binary categorical questions, we will instead somewhat artificially recast this as as binary question:\n\n***Will a woman win the 2018 Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?***\n\nOf the six nominees, three are women (Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Lucy Cooke, and Hannah Fry) and three are men (Daniel M Davis, Mark Miodownik, and Simon Winchester). The resolution will be determined by a press release by the Royal Society or a post on its website declaring the winner.\n\nUsers are encouraged to discuss individual books and their win probabilities in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538282118.039161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538282118.039161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.6041713093742163 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1924038273369146, 0.0, 0.9610843062411234, 0.614968818639638, 1.2263158262331393, 1.170300097172228, 2.2021435844593062, 0.5541459864739142, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.7333766417456654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.0, 0.851981222191657, 0.4034637987401978, 1.295563207704224, 0.6454430936411023, 0.0, 0.47401681106756194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36605593212445325 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8879849529933731, "coverage": 0.9840536530004724, "baseline_score": 7.396042114563075, "spot_peer_score": -0.8358694021559332, "peer_archived_score": 0.8879849529933731, "baseline_archived_score": 7.396042114563075, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8358694021559332 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538282099.421135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538282099.421135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5481321483135146, 0.45186785168648536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1386, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?", "short_title": "Evidence Piracetam beats Memantine by 2021?", "url_title": "Evidence Piracetam beats Memantine by 2021?", "slug": "evidence-piracetam-beats-memantine-by-2021", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-22T07:37:16.153977Z", "published_at": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.414999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-28T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-28T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T15:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T15:32:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1386, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?", "created_at": "2018-08-22T07:37:16.153977Z", "open_time": "2018-08-31T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-02T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T15:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T15:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-26T15:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-28T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-28T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is the third in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nThere is no cure for Alzheimer’s disease, and to the extent that current medications can treat it, their effects on cognitive decline are more akin to hurdles than roadblocks. One of the most common treatments for Alzheimer’s is Memantine, which [“is prescribed to improve memory, attention, reason, language and the ability to perform simple tasks.”](https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/treatments/medications-for-memory) It is considered to have a “small” positive effect on moderate to severe AD cases, and no significant improvement for patients in early stages of the disease.\n\nPiracetam is one of the most widely used types of Nootropic, a class of substance generally characterized by its purported effects on cognition and mood. In the US, it is recreationally used in a manner similar to a stimulant such as Adderall, with reported effects ranging from improved verbosity to higher productivity to a decrease in depressive symptoms. None of these, nor any other use of Piracetam is approved by the FDA, and research of the drug on diagnosed cases of AD or dementia have been [discouragingly inconclusive](http://n.neurology.org/content/43/2/301) at best and [unilaterally damning](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11405971) at worst. On the other hand, a lot of guys on Reddit think it makes them talk more. \n\n(A minority of users of Piracetam report reductions in mood, and this question is not in any way meant as an endorsement of this or any other nootropic.)\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 90% likely the question will resolve positive.***", "resolution_criteria": "**By 2021, will a published paper or pre-print conclude that Piracetam (or other racetams such as Phenylpiracetam) is more effective than Memantine at slowing cognitive decline, restoring function, or significantly alleviating symptoms of the disease?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1580170943.743993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1580170943.743993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4019278556849454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04604314668505586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03720053340149493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01180079311743346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28951321729211965, 0.0, 0.5153518936135082, 0.31167199523019246, 0.0, 0.448009849128789, 0.0, 1.363650684081835, 1.2804377090525956, 0.8245956564854738, 0.09963482656708067, 0.10891869151455617, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 1.0639472433948929, 1.1629562883146303, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.0, 2.4097298427676463, 0.93823183834091, 0.4804175235831154, 0.1265459127621048, 0.062350202415679574, 0.14707798754571821, 0.2137622075302754, 1.0035601952272308, 0.0, 0.3312688031658684, 0.0, 0.18782232570743346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057481663287829866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012156317823425493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6247108199889301, "coverage": 0.9990986315702274, "baseline_score": 10.504570360533549, "spot_peer_score": -8.12303674767532, "peer_archived_score": 0.6247108199889301, "baseline_archived_score": 10.504570360533549, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.12303674767532 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1570854616.418511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1570854616.418511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7475903481881181, 0.25240965181188196 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is the third in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nThere is no cure for Alzheimer’s disease, and to the extent that current medications can treat it, their effects on cognitive decline are more akin to hurdles than roadblocks. One of the most common treatments for Alzheimer’s is Memantine, which [“is prescribed to improve memory, attention, reason, language and the ability to perform simple tasks.”](https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/treatments/medications-for-memory) It is considered to have a “small” positive effect on moderate to severe AD cases, and no significant improvement for patients in early stages of the disease.\n\nPiracetam is one of the most widely used types of Nootropic, a class of substance generally characterized by its purported effects on cognition and mood. In the US, it is recreationally used in a manner similar to a stimulant such as Adderall, with reported effects ranging from improved verbosity to higher productivity to a decrease in depressive symptoms. None of these, nor any other use of Piracetam is approved by the FDA, and research of the drug on diagnosed cases of AD or dementia have been [discouragingly inconclusive](http://n.neurology.org/content/43/2/301) at best and [unilaterally damning](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11405971) at worst. On the other hand, a lot of guys on Reddit think it makes them talk more. \n\n(A minority of users of Piracetam report reductions in mood, and this question is not in any way meant as an endorsement of this or any other nootropic.)\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 90% likely the question will resolve positive.***" }, { "id": 1385, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", "short_title": "Psilocybin Approved for Anxiety by 2027", "url_title": "Psilocybin Approved for Anxiety by 2027", "slug": "psilocybin-approved-for-anxiety-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-22T07:30:27.623870Z", "published_at": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T22:43:07.781486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 177, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1385, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?", "created_at": "2018-08-22T07:30:27.623870Z", "open_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-30T12:01:37.211000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-30T12:01:37.211000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\n\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\n\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\n>A pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\n\n>Roughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.”\nAnd while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n\n>“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\n\n>But the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\n\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\n>\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \n\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.***", "resolution_criteria": "**So will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763389924.928764, "end_time": 1764368687.930189, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763389924.928764, "end_time": 1764368687.930189, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5766600668411329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.603360266306767, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014511529871301599, 1.6215145070673564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4146509477429707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2425356606534832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3169879352136003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.967248869671927, 0.7100853367495765, 0.11427120684765169, 0.0, 0.04289965199472163, 0.11661334446446864, 0.15921355806659293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.716255515380954, 2.6004242009616827, 0.1320132265266261, 0.061487793905252094, 0.363356802903353, 1.5915135792676867, 1.5727943550087335, 0.19291797431616964, 0.18684838862694741, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.16825218906549758, 0.302530280650369, 0.09645855071441094, 0.06504388532896688, 1.3348006412044038, 0.3739099914214421, 0.5744239743775164, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.24176971269997624, 0.0, 0.2679028943180782, 0.26472888436682357, 0.018602160257638698, 0.0, 0.22567992891996577, 0.0, 0.00436638154120732, 0.03204264418412277, 0.2834563466399075, 0.0, 0.00641015356332571, 0.0005513502689110807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009241705689538895, 0.0, 0.02032415941187623, 0.0, 0.7738426734793519 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288259.942763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288259.942763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4637556543218416, 0.5362443456781584 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 457, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\n\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\n\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\n>A pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\n\n>Roughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.”\nAnd while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n\n>“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\n\n>But the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\n\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\n>\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \n\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.***" }, { "id": 1384, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "short_title": "MDMA approved for PTSD by 2025?", "url_title": "MDMA approved for PTSD by 2025?", "slug": "mdma-approved-for-ptsd-by-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-22T06:23:41.644440Z", "published_at": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.469174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T00:53:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1384, "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "created_at": "2018-08-22T06:23:41.644440Z", "open_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T00:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T00:57:40.615533Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \n\nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \n\n>According to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\n\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\n\n>The final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\n\n>The third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\n\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\n\n>Large-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\n\n>Side effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\n\n>Other researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\n\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \n\n**With the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?**\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.***", "resolution_criteria": "To resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1384, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598576702.389243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598576702.389243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5751489393809304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031888075678352786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028010560297325126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08734134001744792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3239589430355346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8020767463924763, 0.28722651746213257, 0.025478931933535582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7659129954053876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.635159434975588, 0.04079026246933662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10224618938848917, 0.026376720255567036, 0.0, 0.08198235545413655, 0.47865057473153044, 0.8866060547533352, 0.7864602101649556, 1.4240110808654673, 0.4924837640058849, 0.0, 0.4874896062670364, 1.234109358283614, 2.146828770515887, 0.1113044596296227, 0.3710812097874162, 0.0030620553889559718, 3.315165427649906, 0.17374554634249434, 0.7175004744535507, 0.3488133558429181, 0.8973824696423264, 0.8306923633885648, 0.38003724184278886, 0.1566313857520577, 0.03028212569614864, 0.16592615076224607, 0.37517233464998334, 0.0, 0.015865051790561465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3030185189218817, 0.0008362155035617172, 0.0, 0.010918246352584246, 0.0, 0.002441422369514447, 0.0005143843568136428, 0.01351311324224467, 0.0003936801159824533, 0.009436282690775694, 0.0028113092303174102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00827614832068884 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -35.07174170993738, "peer_score": 34.21515208455378, "coverage": 0.9997231602103043, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997231602103043, "spot_peer_score": 45.76265396929198, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": -35.07174170993738, "peer_archived_score": 34.21515208455378, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.76265396929198, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598576702.430623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598576702.430623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35196364750033227, 0.6480363524996677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)* \n\nThe three other questions in the series are:\n\n- [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/)\n- [Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/)\n- [Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1386/)\n\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \n\nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \n\n>According to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\n\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\n\n>The final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\n\n>The third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\n\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\n\n>Large-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\n\n>Side effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\n\n>Other researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\n\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \n\n**With the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?**\n\n***The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.***" }, { "id": 1381, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-july-1-2021", "author_id": 101412, "author_username": "r", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:26:28.765624Z", "published_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.387040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1381, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?", "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:26:28.765624Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-06T03:26:34.546739Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-06T03:26:34.546739Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its [longest running bull market.](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/its-the-longest-running-bull-market-depending-on-who-you-ask.html)\n\nHowever, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.\n\n*** This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2021. ***\n\n[Official recession determinations](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html) are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see [FAQ.](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html)\n\nAccordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1381, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546314981.585842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546314981.585842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6234109508920915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02737209068155968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01552736403589142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007280827884852904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41636107118537447, 0.0, 0.0795076679953931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03564310727744694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6393178676484588, 0.0, 0.004411705175538277, 0.47759049593500436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9485511181359451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10678389500756706, 0.9177664704809134, 0.8960435594115131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15359284965772457, 0.8283089357314557, 0.21574719597361322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.849639020358806, 0.0, 1.623682548553615, 0.30589259781127714, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.4231385528905984, 0.008178451525312864, 0.35306151093949006, 0.2457614830731999, 0.0, 2.528438662945762, 0.0, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7448890653330879, 0.38294926766837023, 0.39894163991141135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5983329841197109, 0.022822997644283576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3351294835600089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 0.0, 0.9914465196203275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058390850579851494 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.832006200555462, "coverage": 0.9992847091096133, "baseline_score": 21.55180171618053, "spot_peer_score": 23.193799728328454, "peer_archived_score": 16.832006200555462, "baseline_archived_score": 21.55180171618053, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.193799728328454 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546314981.632892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546314981.632892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.68519335912762, 0.31480664087238003 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1380, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-july-1-2020", "author_id": 101412, "author_username": "r", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:25:05.649579Z", "published_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.008099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1380, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?", "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:25:05.649579Z", "open_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-05T17:44:57.802039Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-05T17:44:57.802039Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-06-08T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its [longest running bull market.](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/its-the-longest-running-bull-market-depending-on-who-you-ask.html)\n\nHowever, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.\n\n*** This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2020. ***\n\n[Official recession determinations](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html) are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see [FAQ.](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html)\n\nAccordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1380, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546321905.259772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546321905.259772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.49569488482528895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.057490275161671864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6083197244854134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018113035510220678, 0.04118545601273407, 0.007962854000768063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08477716834696233, 0.02477462356272051, 0.0, 0.009274756554986085, 0.0, 0.2536628900359011, 0.0, 0.016529544093884904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3540179944266699, 0.0, 0.14579571437321973, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5104114477199775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005348463429925001, 0.2135972916460405, 0.8406057136257582, 0.37922405812316246, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 1.0729433858966462, 0.468056479851664, 1.4610284777596128, 0.0548006986298268, 0.011584886728379377, 0.7973730392388435, 0.046537481014279715, 0.0, 0.9566852543988573, 0.002203835392502228, 0.5934669828233335, 0.16959933361052054, 0.8530746814981345, 0.37142965208743395, 0.50643566328783, 0.8135022618695894, 1.3757144575507223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07457793359045373, 3.352026406549099, 0.03416838198848419, 0.0, 0.00011419072040023296, 0.0, 0.754026923944054, 0.5526250107818667, 0.0024243159500098965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949668712756065, 0.05910574656195615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0940646718565496, 0.0, 0.41752870186414237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005146357895676243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111794603917118, 0.0, 0.0001720101299339614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01541706801782687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5259215648231658 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.483956150621754, "coverage": 0.9995924530205955, "baseline_score": -16.536651564165954, "spot_peer_score": 16.14035439684676, "peer_archived_score": 26.483956150621754, "baseline_archived_score": -16.536651564165954, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.14035439684676 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546239100.849967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546239100.849967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7583874626930731, 0.24161253730692686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 230, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1379, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-july-1-2019", "author_id": 101412, "author_username": "r", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:23:16.409541Z", "published_at": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.728746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-30T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-30T20:35:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1379, "title": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?", "created_at": "2018-08-21T14:23:16.409541Z", "open_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-24T23:24:22.992689Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-24T23:24:22.992689Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-10-30T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-10-30T20:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-10-30T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T06:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its [longest running bull market.](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/its-the-longest-running-bull-market-depending-on-who-you-ask.html)\n\nHowever, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.\n\n*** This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2019. ***\n\n[Official recession determinations](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html) are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see [FAQ.](http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html)\n\nAccordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546301112.338183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546301112.338183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2576859734755544 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3228549715927541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026612067765746133, 0.0, 0.8153521103697476, 0.000469695023939754, 0.14054311015653245, 0.14211404828201354, 0.02025213747636502, 0.687760545178857, 0.0, 0.0, 1.636180613040013, 0.0186219338548433, 1.0333653472258613, 0.6119816574915866, 0.7285129626282708, 1.8020332499197218, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.5066420810053682, 0.21902781920641642, 0.3970847632826752, 1.195229218573782, 0.0, 0.30675771358978204, 0.32482191963980445, 0.0, 0.5639741468072172, 0.0, 1.138008222022694, 1.127107923215786, 0.03197138772871337, 1.1122550026971956, 0.2821588537558103, 0.05181852289469034, 0.7481836548025004, 0.22915763187427504, 0.7178027548206292, 0.0, 0.007450345017332388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8192327608190925, 0.0442825336702615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24985120924642362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09540154541495516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025874510687245507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03030717792890102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346762477837855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.727811273596286, "coverage": 0.9996587995172975, "baseline_score": 58.82244946308274, "spot_peer_score": 5.932400061408631, "peer_archived_score": 11.727811273596286, "baseline_archived_score": 58.82244946308274, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.932400061408631 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543334799.272887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543334799.272887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8673361108247113, 0.13266388917528865 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 190, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1378, "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon", "author_id": 103777, "author_username": "datscilly", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-20T07:00:19.611555Z", "published_at": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.346269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:39:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1378, "title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?", "created_at": "2018-08-20T07:00:19.611555Z", "open_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-25T22:59:46.331488Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-25T22:59:46.331488Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-23T12:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\n\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\n>SpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \n\nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \n\n**Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?**\n\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543634491.55693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543634491.55693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44317868061174537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04943824282800869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12616659799321206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45042165463450634, 0.4607201881542152, 0.0404697691408491, 0.001790116379774893, 0.0, 0.0036512462649140286, 0.3137398054893638, 0.0, 1.06038094957232, 0.0, 2.0818830577696206, 0.18173652270508556, 0.9444368072528766, 0.0, 0.0074318456856788395, 2.3175366600675162, 0.739247436125273, 0.0, 1.1871915464918128, 1.3218505241415988, 0.31904499321338126, 0.0, 0.10602351161407855, 0.0, 0.14670818709218508, 0.984045947136096, 1.05426707939758, 0.16948948535457445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3686504858148352, 0.0, 0.3835729465604968, 0.10159056923965544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09330886589633765, 0.016830734531265112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10083964581808723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20932612500505898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7112118182548245 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.004789155759168, "coverage": 0.9987542608582568, "baseline_score": 11.13718825747363, "spot_peer_score": 51.13161005511125, "peer_archived_score": 7.004789155759168, "baseline_archived_score": 11.13718825747363, "spot_peer_archived_score": 51.13161005511125 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1542070444.226267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1542070444.226267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.769571651564821, 0.230428348435179 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1373, "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:48:06.610514Z", "published_at": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.533596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1373, "title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:48:06.610514Z", "open_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-26T11:13:21.412611Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-26T11:13:21.412611Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\n\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\n\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\n\n> We believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\n\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \n\n> The size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\n\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html ) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\n\n**Please note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!**\n\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541879736.555355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541879736.555355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40346664561143397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9234521142803795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3546399820313133, 0.0, 0.7038446451067445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7470313596766492, 0.22164121876394752, 0.0, 0.6469091987850504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17946090628082964, 0.0, 1.408264443679977, 0.791257821625051, 0.0, 1.2151187793773461, 0.24349870731195392, 0.03569898293040236, 0.0027687183307636316, 0.0, 0.01138843172275674, 0.0, 1.728130793175363, 0.046843471097372705, 0.0, 0.458156727378913, 0.019802118268059273, 0.19267892523477537, 0.9992609206501563, 0.024287392581415282, 0.29885420649036537, 0.0, 0.22595205315584516, 0.0, 0.3109996625627898, 0.1304745372430744, 0.0, 1.233364085063475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23670895439215037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005228157946939775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0211814836833062, 0.0, 0.0, 1.332197774461959, 0.0, 0.014326247536910926, 0.008934832410362489, 0.06601997791471219, 0.40646829763348125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13126392584584554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0054362576736337416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5590329247929222 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.952615667527187, "coverage": 0.9999157125205459, "baseline_score": 1.4929865698613733, "spot_peer_score": 9.536724153264693, "peer_archived_score": 18.952615667527187, "baseline_archived_score": 1.4929865698613733, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.536724153264693 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541677076.107054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541677076.107054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7285990963619939, 0.27140090363800606 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1372, "title": "Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-nfl-player-die-during-a-game-during-the-2018-2019-season", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:43:51.347611Z", "published_at": "2018-09-18T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.054663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-09-18T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2018-09-18T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1372, "title": "Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?", "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:43:51.347611Z", "open_time": "2018-09-18T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-18T15:34:44.710019Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-18T15:34:44.710019Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T23:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-03T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-18T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-18T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Are you ready for some football?! Awesome, now let’s talk about a fun topic... death. \n\nDuring the past 98 years, [Chuck Hughes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Hughes) is the only NFL player to die on the field during a game. In 1971, Chuck was playing for the Detroit Lions when he had a heart attack on the field. He was rushed to the hospital where he was pronounced dead. It turns out that he had an undiagnosed heart condition (advanced arteriosclerosis) which doctors failed to diagnose (he had been admitted previously complaining about chest pains). His widow filed a [lawsuit](https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=q20iAAAAIBAJ&sjid=sawFAAAAIBAJ&pg=5539,3271579) that was resolved in 1974.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, we are only considering imminent death that results from an injury sustained on the field. This distinction may seem inconsequential, but if we don’t employ such a clear distinction, then many more deaths could be attributed to playing NFL football. Arguably, concussions received on the field lead to an early demise by contributing to CTE (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy), Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s. Consider the recent [NFL concussion settlement](https://www.nflconcussionsettlement.com/) which includes thousands of submitted claims. \n\nThis is why, for our purposes, we want to consider only imminent death from an injury sustained on the field and not the long term consequences of playing football. \n\nTo recapitulate, we are interested in whether or not an NFL player dies during a game during the 2018-2019 season. The regular season began on Thursday, September 6. The season ends upon crowning a victor at Super Bowl LII on February 3, 2019. \n\nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that an NFL player dies during a game by February 3, 2019 at 11:59 PM (Eastern Standard Time).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539805701.524647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539805701.524647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0772424399786857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.174794639684451, 2.095184395448478, 1.48302818258381, 1.1115837587009236, 0.10826447292693224, 0.0, 0.5893393376662783, 0.16948948535457445, 0.016830734531265112, 1.6165924612589488, 0.1952379986272593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06773163967248513, 0.18562431523856102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0709177457773091, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1514459365899786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07349408263121644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9444368072528766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.0848668492806315, "coverage": 0.9981089218055572, "baseline_score": 94.9609593326039, "spot_peer_score": 6.1540247771015055, "peer_archived_score": 4.0848668492806315, "baseline_archived_score": 94.9609593326039, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.1540247771015055 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539731063.993653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539731063.993653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9195185892684914, 0.08048141073150857 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1369, "title": "Will the US midterms be hacked?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-midterms-be-hacked", "author_id": 106084, "author_username": "AdamK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:21:33.487233Z", "published_at": "2018-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.195585Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-04T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-04T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-18T15:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-18T15:03:00Z", "open_time": "2018-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1369, "title": "Will the US midterms be hacked?", "created_at": "2018-08-20T01:21:33.487233Z", "open_time": "2018-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-10-03T21:30:12.551720Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-10-03T21:30:12.551720Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-18T15:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-18T15:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-18T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-04T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-04T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In July [The Daily Beast reported](https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-hackers-new-target-a-vulnerable-democratic-senator) that Senator Claire McCaskill was the target of a Russian operation: \n\n>The attempt against McCaskill’s office was a variant of the password-stealing technique used by Russia’s so-called “Fancy Bear” hackers against Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, in 2016.\n\n>The hackers sent forged notification emails to Senate targets claiming the target’s Microsoft Exchange password had expired, and instructing them to change it. If the target clicked on the link, he or she was taken to a convincing replica of the U.S. Senate’s Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) login page, a single sign-on point for e-mail and other services. \n\nThe attempt was one of three apparently [detected by Microsoft](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/19/midterm-campaign-hacking-microsoft-733256), and was not successful. But even if it were, the unsophisticated nature of this type of password phish almost certainly qualifies not as a \"hack\" per se, but as an exercise in social engineering. As such, it isn't much different from the social media bots and astroturfing we already know will be attempting to influence the election process.\n\nMore relevant for this question is the very real concern of voting booth security, which the state of Nevada, at least, [has devoted $8M to improving.](https://news3lv.com/news/local/nevada-boosts-election-security-ahead-of-2018-election) North Carolina has also [developed a plan for systemic upgrades](https://www.wral.com/state-details-plans-for-13m-in-election-security-upgrades/17717394/), and [Florida is attempting to improve their process as well.](https://www.wptv.com/news/region-c-palm-beach-county/florida-spending-millions-for-election-security). These efforts would be in addition to the $250M Senate Democrats are [attempting to disburse](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-cybersecurity-202/2018/07/30/the-cybersecurity-202-the-fight-over-election-security-comes-to-the-senate-floor/5b5dd0ad1b326b0207955e1b/?utm_term=.33d16ef00d2b) over Republican objections.\n\nNBC News has reported that, at the federal level, [no one is in charge of election security oversight:](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/trump-admin-has-no-central-strategy-election-security-no-one-n895256)\n\n>\"The President has made it clear that his administration will not tolerate foreign interference in our elections from any nation state or other malicious actors,\" the White House said in a statement afterward.\n\n>But current and former officials tell NBC News that 19 months into his presidency, there is no coherent Trump administration strategy to combat foreign election interference — and no single person or agency in charge.\n\nThis is despite the fact that official state websites are eminently vulnerable. [From FiveThirtyEight:](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/state-websites-are-hackable-and-that-could-compromise-election-security/) \n\n>...the subpar preparation of state websites and election systems remains a concern for cybersecurity experts. According to Hursti, the potential vulnerabilities outlined by Appsecuri were basic. Using slang for relatively inexperienced hackers, he called them “‘script-kids’ vulnerabilities, which anyone can find.” Hursti said that no website “with anything meaningful” should have these kinds of vulnerabilities on its site in 2018.\n\nWith all that in mind, the question:\n\n***Will the 2018 US Midterm elections be hacked?*** \n\nResolves positive if by Jan 15, 2019, the ODNI, other US agency (DOJ, FEC), or Congressional Committee, releases a report assessing affirmatively that hacking (as defined below problem) was part of the 2018 campaign of influence.\n\nFor our purposes, \"hacked\" is understood to mean the unauthorized access of a site or system--distinct from but still compatible with mimicking the appearance of same--perpetrated by a malicious actor with the express intent to alter the outcome of any or all elections in the timeframe. For example, an official entering account information into a webpage designed to look legitimate, resulting in a compromised machine that precipitates an info dump, e.g. is not a hack, but the takeover or penetration of that same website would be. Alternatively, an intentional miscount of physical ballots would not be a hack, but a manipulation of a system to do the same would be.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1369, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541297717.96813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541297717.96813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4329902637497147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4636249585304235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001469195406109808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09352845379090119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938933945991016, 0.0, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 3.121931836358849, 0.0, 0.3645648957485751, 0.13249979905882817, 0.0, 0.03492060446249783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 1.19648644781642, 0.015061754745690714, 0.005034190088132767, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2782196641934294, 0.0, 0.03126931611125853, 0.19190643306072772, 0.555001365518943, 1.6017418536322654, 0.0, 1.2663271286453566, 0.0, 0.23304744144606535, 0.8879041954471399, 0.019501694237860755, 0.8258953232607744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338850352135785, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017175512748169287, 0.13294871357904137, 0.006043168560687309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.415541774507731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11161595350970598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04791750235716968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.2959830138372486, "coverage": 0.9992477696181409, "baseline_score": 5.332785945043702, "spot_peer_score": -12.423689066861023, "peer_archived_score": -0.2959830138372486, "baseline_archived_score": 5.332785945043702, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.423689066861023 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541189548.502425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541189548.502425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6208065992903241, 0.3791934007096759 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
