Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5920
{ "count": 6412, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5940", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5900", "results": [ { "id": 1042, "title": "Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-we-find-the-remains-of-missing-malaysia-air-flight-370-by-summers-end", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-07-07T00:09:06.761882Z", "published_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.941322Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-09-23T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-23T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1042, "title": "Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?", "created_at": "2018-07-07T00:09:06.761882Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-10T12:00:06.517516Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-10T12:00:06.517516Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-23T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-23T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In March 2014, the world mourned (and a thousand [conspiracy theories](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/926694/MH370-conspiracy-theories-mystery-aliens-prediction-Malaysia-Airlines) were born) when Malaysia Air flight 370 disappeared over the [South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370).\n\nBut although initial search and rescue (and later, recovery) efforts failed, many have not abandoned hope. Ocean Infinity, for instance, is [still on the case](https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/mh370-search-ship-seabed-constructor-not-ready-to-stop-yet/news-story/d20ba9dc35fddf95e8a92770c5fe5ffe). On June 4, the Norwegian ship Seabed Constructor headed into terra incognito:\n\n> Over the past few days, the ship has been searching an area of the southern Indian Ocean where Chinese navy ship Haixun 01 detected a suspected black box “ping” less than a month after the plane vanished on March 8, 2014.\n\nThis article by the BBC paints a [bleak picture](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38647775) of the search effort. So it seems unlikely that there will be a breakthrough, especially in the next few months. Then again, [Black Swan events](https://vaultanalytics.com/podcast/predicting-the-unpredictable/) (and their converse) are rarely predictable.\n\nQuestion resolves positive if credible media reports indicate that search efforts have found unambiguous evidence of the missing plane by September 22, 2018 (last day of summer).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1537662994.230142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1537662994.230142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06300177959179043 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.02951198145236, 0.6905856965236845, 0.032502126938727775, 1.2574772417796618, 1.9322046444142091, 0.0034029306987248815, 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"spot_peer_archived_score": -1.5893461130895123 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1537320889.411556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1537320889.411556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9025205829322219, 0.0974794170677781 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1041, "title": "Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-be-profitable-in-q3-2018", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-07-07T00:04:50.906397Z", "published_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.282489Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-24T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-24T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1041, "title": "Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?", "created_at": "2018-07-07T00:04:50.906397Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-10T13:26:19.240817Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-10T13:26:19.240817Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-24T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-24T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-24T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Elon Musk's Tesla company has already arguably revolutionized the auto industry. \n\nThe renegade billionaire hopes to blaze a path to the future. As Wait But Why's Tim Urban explained in an [epic blog post](https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html) nearly 3 years ago--based on extensive interviews with Musk:\n\n> The overarching mission wasn’t to build the biggest car company in the world. It was to solve a bunch of long-standing EV shortcomings and build such an insanely great car that it could change everyone’s perception of what an EV could be and force the world’s big car companies to have to develop their own line of great EVs. Their end goal, and the company’s official mission, was “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” In other words, EVs are gonna happen, but we’re gonna make them happen a lot sooner. Sooner, in this case, is important, because it means carbon emissions decrease earlier and the long term effects of them are much less damaging.\n\nSince that time, a lot has happened in the world of EVs.\n\n* Tesla built and launched its [Gigafactory](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2018/05/03/teslas-battery-gigafactory-hits-new-output-levels/576017002/) to create next gen batteries at scale.\n* Many conventional companies have joined Tesla to [ramp up production](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2018/05/28/electric-car-sales-set-to-accelerate-as-costs-fall-and-production-scales-up/#331ad14b4049) of EVs, with Forbes reporting that \"The electrification of the transport system is set to accelerate in the late 2020s... Electric vehicle sales will surge thanks to tumbling battery costs and increasing scale in manufacturing.\"\n* Tesla's [Model 3](https://gizmodo.com/tesla-model-3-sets-record-distance-on-a-single-charge-1826367596) has gotten record distance on a single charge, despite [problems](https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/tesla-model-3-review-falls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/).\n\nOn the other hand, perhaps surprisingly, Tesla is struggling to be a profitable company. As the New York Times reported on May 1, Tesla is still [burning cash](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/02/business/tesla-earnings-model-3.html) to stay afloat.\n\nBut the company's billionaire leader insists that Tesla will be profitable as soon as Q3 of 2018. [Per Techcrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/13/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-be-profitable-in-q3-and-q4/):\n\n> On Tesla’s last call to discuss the company’s quarterly results with Wall Street analysts, Musk said that the company would begin generating “positive quarterly operating income on a sustained basis,” and said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the company would be GAAP profitable.\n\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Musk's prediction comes true and Tesla posts a positive Q3 in 2018; negative if negative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540420126.605033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540420126.605033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.44320377842495684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5022671328520228, 0.11512391143143279, 0.1499486695500105, 0.0, 0.0945209935554165, 0.37646380398516843, 0.0, 0.046748387309323354, 0.0, 0.23603812222315548, 0.0, 0.008446150501969675, 0.0, 0.2255698768045348, 0.3646362890203249, 0.6300799448942945, 0.0002419335072703344, 0.03904993599146778, 0.318209642494191, 2.5186534673814758, 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30.753773750956373, "baseline_archived_score": -96.95008425184248, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.02470291228082 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540400278.287156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540400278.287156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8071058407421776, 0.19289415925782233 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1039, "title": "Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a \"Space Force\" before the 2020 presidential election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-trump-adminstration-succeed-in-creating-a-space-force-before-the-2020-presidential-election", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-07-06T23:26:17.034178Z", "published_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.893508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-21T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-21T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 196, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1039, "title": "Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a \"Space Force\" before the 2020 presidential election?", "created_at": "2018-07-06T23:26:17.034178Z", "open_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-10T16:26:31.722657Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-10T16:26:31.722657Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-21T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-21T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-21T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This March, President Trump announced that America would create a 6th branch of the military, a so-called \"Space Force\". Per ABC News, [Trump said](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-directs-creation-space-force-sixth-branch-military/story?id=55978674): \n\n> It is not enough to merely have an American presence in space, we must have American dominance in space. Very importantly I'm hereby directing the Department of Defense and Pentagon to immediately begin the process necessary to establish a space force as the sixth branch of the armed forces, that is a big statement... We are going to have the Air Force and we are going to have the space force, separate but equal, it is going to be something.\n\nBloomberg's editorial board seemed [open to the idea](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-21/trump-s-space-force-is-no-joke), writing: \n\n> plenty of critics have argued — persuasively — that the current arrangement is impeding much-needed change and innovation. Could Trump’s Space Force, or something like it, do better? Several studies, dating back to 2001, suggest that it could. If organized with care and forethought, such a force could clarify accountability, accelerate decision-making, rationalize the procurement process, improve recruitment, and ease pressure on the broader Air Force, which is heavily burdened with more traditional responsibilities.\n\nNot everyone agrees. Writing for Slate, Fred Kaplan [argues](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/trumps-space-force-idea-is-a-terrible-solution-to-a-real-problem.html):\n\n> The special thing about satellites and the organizations that control or operate them (Air Force Space Command, the NRO, and other smaller outfits) is that they are, by nature, subordinate to other branches of the armed forces—to wars that are fought not in outer space but on Earth or in the atmosphere. Space assets service air, naval, and ground forces by providing them with intelligence, communications, and guidance for missiles and smart bombs. Placing these vital assets under the command of a four-star general in a separate service—and imbuing its officers and enlisted personnel with the élan of an elite force that doesn’t answer to the other services of the armed forces and that, in fact, competes with them for resources—would run counter to the nation’s needs. \n\nIn any event, for the Space Force to materialize, Congress would have to authorize and fund it. \n\n*** Will legislators do so prior to the 2020 presidential election? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a bill is passed by congress and signed by the President by Nov 1. 2020 that formally establishes a new branch of the military focusing on space.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577074173.690634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577074173.690634, "end_time": 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1028, "title": "Will the Opportunity Mars rover awaken after the dust storm passes?", "created_at": "2018-07-06T01:46:08.370779Z", "open_time": "2018-07-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-06T08:43:23.019476Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-06T08:43:23.019476Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T17:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T17:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-03T17:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-05T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-05T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As of June 20, 2018, the entire Red Planet has been ensnarled in dust. Yikes! Here's [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/06/20/mars-dust-storm-covers-planet/719308002/) with the gory details: \n\n> A giant dust storm has enveloped the entire planet of Mars, with dust clouds reaching up to 40 miles high, NASA announced Wednesday. The dust storm has silenced NASA's solar-powered rover Opportunity since last week, by obscuring the sun. The robot rover has gone to sleep because its solar panels are unable to provide or recharge its batteries. But NASA's other Martian rover, Curiosity, is nuclear powered and is mostly unaffected by the dust storm.\n\nIn case you want to read amazing details about these beastly storms, check [this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKBk_Kfucs4) out.\n\nWill the plucky rover known as Opportunity make it out of this storm alive? \n\nHere's what Space.com [has to report](https://www.space.com/40881-monster-mars-dust-storm-opportunity-rover.html):\n\n> the dust is incredibly thick over Endeavour Crater — thicker than anything Opportunity has dealt with before, mission team members said. Opportunity is now enduring complete darkness 24 hours a day, and its power levels have dropped precipitously as a result — from 645 watt-hours on June 2 to about 22 watt-hours on Sunday (June 10)\n\nAs a result, says Ray Arvidson, an investigator on the rover mission, \"Opportunity is now likely in a low-power mode, \"in which the rover wakes up, checks its power and, if too low, just goes back to sleep again,\" according to Inside Outer Space.\n\n\"At some point as the storm subsides, Opportunity should wake up, decide it has enough power to transmit a signal from its low-gain antenna, saying, 'I am awake and OK, but I am going back to sleep again,'\" he added. \"This should happen every sol until it decides to go back to full operation.\" \n\nQuestion resolves positive if NASA manages to make contact again with Opportunity after the storm passes. Godspeed, little rover!", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1028, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1533442703.363458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1533442703.363458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.67000679007646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.22567992891996577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056768046350144125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6374564811246898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016495806443394484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02016325144692848, 0.0, 0.41674820287565373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.397869400262677, 0.0, 0.018602160257638698, 1.1164172115765463, 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"created_at": "2018-07-02T14:13:05.956904Z", "published_at": "2018-07-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.926500Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-08-03T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-03T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-06T02:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-06T02:04:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 244, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": 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defeat a pro team at Dota 2 in August?", "created_at": "2018-07-02T14:13:05.956904Z", "open_time": "2018-07-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-05T22:44:07.846247Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-05T22:44:07.846247Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-06T02:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-06T02:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-08-06T02:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-03T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-03T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After DeepMind's ascent to the top of Go playing, and with great advances in AI systems playing many (but [not some other](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/)) Atari games through self-training and reinforcement learning, interest has turned to games that require a lot of long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting, such as [Starcraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/403/when-will-an-ai-system-score-an-impressive-defeat-of-a-professional-human-in-starcraft-2/) and in the short-term, [Dota 2.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2)\n\nOpenAI's Dota 2 player system has been defeating top humans in 1-on-1 play [for about a year](https://blog.openai.com/dota-2/), and OpenAI has [recently announced](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/) that its Dota2-playing system had begun to beat skilled human teams on 5-on-5 team play, a significantly larger challenge.\n\nOpenAI now feels ready for the big-time, and will enter its 5-player system in \"The International\", a major Dota 2 championshop with a $20M purse. There's a [site set up for this](https://openai.com/the-international/) and everything.\n\nAccording to [this blog post](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/) they will compete at The International—but prior to *that*, they'll benchmark their progress by playing against \"top players\" on [August 5th](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark/).", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will OpenAI's system beat the top players on August 5th? ***\n\nThe question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match occurs under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous.\n\nA sister question will concern \"The International\" once more details become available.\n\n*(Edit 7/19/18: Updated to reflect the match's new date)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1533279093.726115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1533279093.726115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.663534601898344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0842829535561948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09498842941871943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6250252207360609, 0.0, 0.0005901424674610141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0703698969463967, 0.0, 0.002154611900146426, 0.0, 0.6346075747087575, 0.08807263620568327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017688102804095336, 0.0, 0.8851435106403438, 0.0, 0.1635893838992491, 0.01708638169180892, 0.5200294654331306, 0.005927074396783232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4895165894237392, 0.9684658246027487, 0.0034457110999163774, 2.695127806368084e-05, 0.0, 0.003276418364670517, 0.0, 0.2914156204336405, 0.08702127742882823, 0.0, 0.17294811094567142, 0.00018037016404097257, 0.12731168278360322, 0.00015451175203743086, 0.0011263888341366637, 1.0194889407302015, 0.8220981530625019, 0.13662243544096128, 0.0, 0.1552235291274114, 2.59723441032569, 0.000835891935510111, 0.000606567676810102, 0.6232352535987963, 0.1237829254136209, 1.4992328394012726, 2.2342404159354157, 1.044846775704556, 0.10519945552880544, 0.035810402200667425, 1.8030872205553723, 0.15369698159092818, 0.06480317855266927, 6.635447515139437e-05, 5.254646964982892e-06, 0.706675746296904, 0.1757714621132742, 0.06114139436748271, 0.3832169200015405, 0.5746580110638234, 1.351538660922193, 0.17762949933400235, 0.33465326752387, 0.0, 0.852335423604947, 0.15369903088217257, 0.0, 0.6782563262673463, 0.1103507348743901, 0.19085277872583448, 0.33778324829658257, 0.9081691260523619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08479209890227579, 0.004706796419504835, 0.3838048521110258, 0.0, 0.47027831286778643, 3.0463020095770363 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.517573148607138, "coverage": 0.9985360965178391, "baseline_score": 47.6984426370365, "spot_peer_score": 9.083670357071256, "peer_archived_score": 14.517573148607138, "baseline_archived_score": 47.6984426370365, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.083670357071256 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1533220165.071674, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1533220165.071674, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5945614392740413, 0.4054385607259587 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 446, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After DeepMind's ascent to the top of Go playing, and with great advances in AI systems playing many (but [not some other](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/)) Atari games through self-training and reinforcement learning, interest has turned to games that require a lot of long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting, such as [Starcraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/403/when-will-an-ai-system-score-an-impressive-defeat-of-a-professional-human-in-starcraft-2/) and in the short-term, [Dota 2.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2)\n\nOpenAI's Dota 2 player system has been defeating top humans in 1-on-1 play [for about a year](https://blog.openai.com/dota-2/), and OpenAI has [recently announced](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/) that its Dota2-playing system had begun to beat skilled human teams on 5-on-5 team play, a significantly larger challenge.\n\nOpenAI now feels ready for the big-time, and will enter its 5-player system in \"The International\", a major Dota 2 championshop with a $20M purse. There's a [site set up for this](https://openai.com/the-international/) and everything.\n\nAccording to [this blog post](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five/) they will compete at The International—but prior to *that*, they'll benchmark their progress by playing against \"top players\" on [August 5th](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark/)." }, { "id": 1013, "title": "Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-benoit-lecomte-successfully-swim-across-the-pacific-ocean", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-30T05:41:53.603150Z", "published_at": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.698204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-26T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-26T14:31:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1013, "title": "Will Benoit Lecomte successfully swim across the Pacific Ocean?", "created_at": "2018-06-30T05:41:53.603150Z", "open_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-04T16:27:14.179363Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-04T16:27:14.179363Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-26T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-26T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-26T14:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Benoit Lecomte is an accomplished long-distance swimmer who is attempting to swim from Japan to California in an effort to raise awareness about the environmental impact of plastics and other trash on the world's beaches and oceans.\n\nIn 1998, Lecomte swam from Massachusetts to France (roughly 3,700 miles in 73 days) to raise money for cancer research. He will use a similar method in this attempt, with a boat accompanying him for rest periods and eating/drinking. On a daily basis, Lecomte expects to cover about 40 miles in 8 hours. It will take him more than 4 months to complete the 5,500 mile journey. \n\nFor this question to resolve positively, Lecomte must arrive in San Francisco having completed the journey in one attempt and by way of a \"staged swim\", in which each day of swimming begins where the other ends. Daily boat respites and breaks resulting from emergency situations (weather, shark encounters, injury, illness, safety equipment faults, etc) shall not disqualify as long as the staged swim continues. Certification from Guinness or any other governing body not required. Lecomte must swim under his own power at all times.\n\nLecomte can be tracked here: http://thelongestswim.com/logbook/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1544536556.148086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1544536556.148086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.49582343628215986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.625825905627325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0478799219346663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0059287965041591745, 0.03323770182556235, 0.07199357643662296, 0.8468093243467587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05128456352378866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19932370720222498, 0.0, 0.08929898399145973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.585941119305714, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.0, 0.023700234557073117, 0.7667353792089138, 0.02453432730873404, 0.030597622151664183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07741073985238849, 0.3462191900209105, 0.0, 0.021710077376296863, 0.8994233341449406, 0.057637412486455035, 2.313914811190611, 0.6878515237986963, 1.0649465873923847, 0.3652368272250053, 0.0, 0.6762851202214509, 0.042329219623205, 0.8307691280057894, 0.0, 0.15431059356735283, 0.4566745934489328, 0.24061064515782007, 0.0007096313110553183, 0.5495593173022819, 0.0036470026727336412, 0.1500765271219206, 0.3262038732013748, 1.3425682713117457, 0.0, 0.2559445202227483, 0.18422104619133833, 0.0, 0.049484673575065724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11778761448711063, 0.0, 0.9485205268609804, 0.0, 0.5194046048006896, 0.005278083116039403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013695601476635202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3720697144114418 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.524208649937452, "coverage": 0.43361889333635306, "baseline_score": -2.5658281126498825, "spot_peer_score": 7.531499358250028, "peer_archived_score": 3.524208649937452, "baseline_archived_score": -2.5658281126498825, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.531499358250028 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543176542.216694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543176542.216694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7826937098128468, 0.21730629018715317 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1011, "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", "short_title": "Roe v. Wade Overturned by Jul 31, 2028", "url_title": "Roe v. Wade Overturned by Jul 31, 2028", "slug": "roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028", "author_id": 105909, "author_username": "despear", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-28T18:37:27.365334Z", "published_at": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.525087Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 135, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 412, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1011, "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2018-06-28T18:37:27.365334Z", "open_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-03T21:28:08.052271Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-03T21:28:08.052271Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \n\n*Roe* established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). *Roe* was later altered in [Planned Parenthood v. Casey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey), reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. *Casey* also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for \"the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between July 1 2018 to July 31 2028, the [US Supreme Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States\n) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point before the date of fetal viability.\n\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients, or the revocation of medical or professional licenses. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion.\n\n*[Dec 10, 2021] casens -- This question's resolution text has been altered, see the fine print for the original.*", "fine_print": "Before Dec 10, 2021, the question's resolution terms were as follows:\n\n>We specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\n>Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,\n>\n>1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n>\n>1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n>\n>1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n>\n>1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n>\n>1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.\n>\n>AND\n>\n>2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).\n>\n>*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the le1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:\n>\n>1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.\n>\n>1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n>\n>1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).\n>\n>1.4. 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This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \n\n*Roe* established the individual right to abortion in 1973 during the first 2 trimesters of a pregnancy (approximately 2 weeks). *Roe* was later altered in [Planned Parenthood v. Casey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey), reducing the individual's right to abortion to when it is not viable to safely deliver the fetus, which is commonly around 24 weeks of pregnancy, though the earliest patient to survive an early-term birth was born at 21 weeks and 5 days. *Casey* also found that states may not pass laws placing an undue burden for \"the purpose or effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus\"" }, { "id": 1010, "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-us-supreme-court-justice-be-approved-in-2018", "author_id": 104188, "author_username": "Fruo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-28T17:52:43.566491Z", "published_at": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.146295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-25T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1010, "title": "Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018?", "created_at": "2018-06-28T17:52:43.566491Z", "open_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-01T18:46:14.103981Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-01T18:46:14.103981Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-25T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-25T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-06T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "US Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy, considered one of the court's more moderate/swing votes, recently announced his impending retirement. This means President Trump will have the chance to propose a second Supreme Court nominee, which will likely shape the face of constitutionality questions for many years to come.\n\nWhile it's been argued at both the [National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/06/unanimous-supreme-court-decisions-are-more-common-you-think/) and [538]( https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-justices-were-bffs-this-scotus-term/) that Justices are far less polarized than one might think, some fear that a Trump replacement could trample individual rights for years to come. Others, of course, believe it could rein in government overreach for years to come. One can only be certain of death and taxes.\n\nThis question **resolves positively only if Trump nominates a new Supreme Court Justice after July 1, 2018 and that nominee is approved by the Senate by end of day Dec 31, 2018, Pacific Time**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538857592.566863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538857592.566863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8324554784904669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2359709868354549, 0.0005090291650876231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0966369608910907, 0.3472102007667861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Several large companies have already received claims that they are not in compliance with the regulation.\n\nThis question **resolves positively only if a European or US company with a market cap of over 50 billion nominal USD is fined at least 1 million nominal USD (cumulatively) for GDPR violations by end-of-day Dec 31, 2021 Eastern Time **.\n\nThe market cap requirement (as specified by the intraday value on, for example, Yahoo finance) can be met at any point in time by the end date specified above for the company to qualify. \"European or US\" can be determined using e.g. [Forbes' list](https://www.forbes.com/global2000/list/#tab:overall) or comparable data source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1548960995.141869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1548960995.141869, "end_time": 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null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1003, "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?", "created_at": "2018-06-27T07:29:04.561778Z", "open_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-07-01T10:21:18.584911Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-07-01T10:21:18.584911Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-24T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-24T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-24T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\n\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \n\nThis question **resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021**. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\n\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n\n1. Comcast\n\n2. Charter\n\n3. AT&T\n\n4. Verizon\n\n5. 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"health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1002, "title": "Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", "created_at": "2018-06-26T12:38:54.294431Z", "open_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-30T17:31:00.928178Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-30T17:31:00.928178Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in <a href=' https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy'>life expectancy</a>. Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II'>Ramesses II</a> lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\n\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation'>Methuselah Foundation</a> has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\n\nAs of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans:\n\n\n* 46 people have reached the age of 115.\n\n* 19 people have reached the age of 116.\n\n* 9 people have reached the age of 117.\n\n* 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.</li>\n\nOnly one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either of the following occur before January 1, 2100:\n\n* At least 10 people have confirmed lifespans of at least 130 years of age\n\n* At least 100 people have confirmed lifespans of at least 120 years of age\n\n* Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120\n\nThe verification process on these individuals' lifespans should be at least as strict as the standards used during 2018. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen will not be included in this question's resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763457802.875783, "end_time": 1787563538.686135, "forecaster_count": 432, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.962 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763457802.875783, "end_time": 1787563538.686135, "forecaster_count": 432, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.962 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.038000000000000034, 0.962 ], "means": [ 0.8697367735089465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1655955580406578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016386823859125273, 0.00015646849901384912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.194879454573653e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015473950676382119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7110728711123475e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1193990483059573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019805317449696175, 0.0, 0.3272479298284478, 0.26122123276012105, 8.23346550540822e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5275658014014694e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6455712201651538, 0.0, 0.6298911464582375, 0.0, 0.0582137202162941, 0.0, 5.3804226159925546e-05, 0.06006013700974018, 0.0, 0.320546801603587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010141568201811424, 0.13226515099282643, 0.0, 1.2617068482064564e-07, 0.0, 0.006512762020988016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001500806222286906, 1.9091802720558604e-06, 0.17994218888160024, 3.217556701106055e-05, 0.0, 0.0005320291830493093, 0.000309422853501276, 1.3384844805134852, 0.012523526736612672, 0.1524068742141829, 0.0, 0.392517213677259, 1.8264687224352998, 0.0001349957037928887, 4.84760107334599e-07, 1.783590145811117e-05, 4.4722872334769256e-07, 0.8665271252941925, 0.2762484856245387, 0.6103963937887767, 0.8278227230624801, 0.09920710409307587, 0.3021638339158844, 0.003065444555784471, 1.5528799758137073, 1.2842944613739453, 0.42766985082543124, 2.3150196037592967, 3.3851956756643378, 1.6565897570130481, 2.2874043073690316, 15.51022306930034 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288686.932993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 422, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288686.932993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 422, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14168296909041267, 0.8583170309095873 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 51, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 896, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in <a href=' https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy'>life expectancy</a>. Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II'>Ramesses II</a> lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\n\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation'>Methuselah Foundation</a> has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\n\nAs of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans:\n\n\n* 46 people have reached the age of 115.\n\n* 19 people have reached the age of 116.\n\n* 9 people have reached the age of 117.\n\n* 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.</li>\n\nOnly one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122." }, { "id": 1000, "title": "Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-japans-hayabusa2-spacecrafts-lander-or-rovers-successfully-land-on-the-asteroid-ryugu", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-24T22:24:17.009578Z", "published_at": "2018-06-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.208277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-22T23:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-22T23:23:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1000, "title": "Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu?", "created_at": "2018-06-24T22:24:17.009578Z", "open_time": "2018-06-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-25T10:16:42.874653Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-25T10:16:42.874653Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-22T23:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-22T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-22T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Hayabusa2 mission is on course to meet up with the 900 meter wide asteroid known as Ryugu in the imminent future. What will this rendezvous bring? Hopefully, some good \"Science!\" with a capital \"S\".\n\nSpace.com has [the skinny](https://www.space.com/40948-japan-hayabusa2-probe-nears-asteroid-ryugu.html):\n\n> The spacecraft, which launched in 2014, is set to arrive at the 3,000-foot-wide (900 meters) asteroid on or around June 27. After arriving, the probe will drop three rovers and a lander onto the space rock's surface to explore and grab samples. The newest asteroid views reveal that Ryugu is a world of dramatic angles, covered with dents and craters, rotating in the opposite direction that Earth and the sun are as the object orbits.\n\nCool pictures of Ryugu are [here](https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/06/20/asteroid-ryugu-revealed-by-approaching-japanese-spacecraft/).\n\nThe craft is loaded with equipment that – if all goes well – will dock with the asteroid. And there are multiple chances of success. (If one rover falters, for instance, there are [backups](http://www.spacetechasia.com/a-detailed-look-at-japans-hayabusa2-asteroid-exploration-mission/).) \n\nThen again, any space mission is fraught. We all remember [what happened to the Philae probe](http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/14/world/comet-landing/index.html), which journeyed over 300M miles from home only to conk out on its destination comet.\n\n*** Will at least one of Hayabusa2's rovers or lander touch down on Ryugu and send at least one picture from the surface? ***\n\nTo keep it sporting, question will retroactively close 1 hour prior to the first landing attempt.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1531637538.620438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1531637538.620438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8105135055949456 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the end of 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-julian-assange-still-be-in-the-ecuadorian-embassy-at-the-end-of-2018", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-24T05:27:41.622591Z", "published_at": "2018-06-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.759012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": 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"binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has been inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London since June 2012, fearing arrest and extradition to Sweden should he leave.\n\nIn the intervening years, there have been a variety of attempts to end the detente and allow Assange to leave Ecuadorian protection of his own volition. He has been granted Ecuadorian citizenship and denied internet access in an attempt to curb his politically-toxic image. In unrelated developments, the Swedish charges he once fled have been dropped, and the Ecuadorian regime has turned over into one seemingly less friendly to Assange's predicament. As Assange continues to court controversy, how much longer will Ecuadorian officials be inclined to foot the bills?\n\nThis question asks whether he will still be in the embassy (in London) when 2018 ends, resolving positively if he is alive and in the embassy on Jan 1, 2019, and he has not left (voluntarily or otherwise) in the intervening period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 999, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541031205.202729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541031205.202729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6606549503722916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03267661805177132, 0.07560833620913443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036176207211282927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001428418055775581, 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"scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 379, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, 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It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\n\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\n\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965442.037051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 379, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965442.037051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 379, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08216993979308332 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.766401573630167, 12.467677010061285, 0.5941478930353824, 0.7631816594271736, 1.3542688047145872, 0.8444593255339494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2061031486451313, 1.1696617792382953, 1.6082223810132352, 0.5276248496689968, 0.5204639718320699, 0.2304036901686243, 0.24354531659450523, 0.12371495161143682, 0.14690141563140602, 0.05259097814667275, 0.12647678412717156, 0.07991050261641387, 0.9032968412005242, 0.11944854709562276, 0.018164293633513552, 0.6370677962068054, 0.0, 0.5641277235310036, 0.06113991618449882, 0.0, 0.271981860417568, 0.0, 0.05099150899946269, 3.005332675485459e-05, 0.01758562075558134, 0.17441264950107735, 0.20177852387846698, 0.09385763424567978, 0.10431277506365388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09530437465762752, 0.42948336297986645, 0.01571936072480277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054265281284264284, 0.28830105069345, 0.08781981230808099, 0.08122347762757834, 0.01595133718562654, 0.0, 0.036515428867229485, 4.388485869250283e-05, 0.02005526581702505, 0.0040742824463986735, 0.0005344220609247949, 0.06324494171369441, 0.08376068201544945, 0.013300092725734416, 0.0, 0.1474070269956006, 0.09577473974183931, 0.07730005601282525, 0.03159951123791136, 0.04618691076254905, 0.010596543456043505, 0.020771395812026895, 7.0299599844729384e-06, 0.013370304469054697, 0.0026191008488394524, 0.0, 0.04917414869343947, 0.0016223150933350875, 0.013289120630485686, 0.003933253851318817, 0.001981289754048192, 0.07775899888945004, 0.0016891391258138024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023444318164368835, 0.07054486536688025, 1.33805140770717e-05, 3.095403307935757e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06646923571387385, 0.0, 0.0071397088012725585, 3.217315856752568e-06, 0.0, 5.936890638369526e-08, 0.0006467396882668924, 0.0010930189927117224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004672241607921299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3627402135054981 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.583933835669896, "coverage": 0.9999685889648142, "baseline_score": -22.493523565791097, "spot_peer_score": -4.378590322972485, "peer_archived_score": 26.583933835669896, "baseline_archived_score": -22.493523565791097, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.378590322972485 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965442.085273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 379, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965442.085273, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 379, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9956455291867014, 0.004354470813298629 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1003, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\n\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\n\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year." }, { "id": 980, "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?", "short_title": "Tesla Largest Car Company by 2035", "url_title": "Tesla Largest Car Company by 2035", "slug": "tesla-largest-car-company-by-2035", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-19T16:49:31.629511Z", "published_at": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:05:39.246421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 483, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 980, "title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?", "created_at": "2018-06-19T16:49:31.629511Z", "open_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-23T01:37:58.068719Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-23T01:37:58.068719Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\n\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked <a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/'>here</a>. It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Tesla Motors is the largest car producer in the world at any point before January 1, 2035, according to global car sales data from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2017-statistics/).\n\nIf data from OICA is not available during this period, Metaculus may select an alternative credible source of data, or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761954532.763714, "end_time": 1766353539.815362, "forecaster_count": 286, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761954532.763714, "end_time": 1766353539.815362, "forecaster_count": 286, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.14721477607207745 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.460993233910795, 6.988026289286859, 4.613116061145017, 1.13960813370482, 0.9982678277439551, 2.6150421292356283, 1.8303115330420372, 0.5467469197386277, 0.14428195056952822, 0.10995828084290901, 0.43290298165376817, 1.0486625555213411, 0.6323003891919143, 0.07228582714512101, 0.0005656396217530035, 0.45039711126844334, 0.15978105908860574, 0.9701587577644936, 0.2629929098691218, 0.0, 0.06701703305387541, 3.959477165660071e-06, 0.03787921143609392, 0.03551138636319703, 0.01430209734954312, 0.10308745041951636, 0.0, 0.00040928413106001467, 0.028234228282371043, 0.0, 0.11920565150149004, 0.004575881764094503, 0.00016228090328718875, 0.004816548807137706, 0.0, 0.17608640739461198, 0.001033020022496379, 0.0026141907073465188, 0.0005363610592648083, 0.0022543790745851253, 0.04251824942106307, 0.0, 0.005249456478739314, 0.0, 0.0009475222350407487, 0.014655245033370588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5311483441786047, 2.968738940867657e-05, 0.020009771989324705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003277235606048846, 0.05646700430458985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01250570374500989, 0.116649045436758, 0.00011886446645639907, 1.4449542321558843e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3895297242900082, 0.0, 4.959926587313615e-05, 0.0, 0.0037059115196242205, 0.7711044623056516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0233166382020914, 0.0004323032988569702, 0.07750520254388149, 0.0, 5.713428996609474e-05, 1.2468256271412662e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.02770481408513e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022445671790350553, 3.989719480566298e-05, 1.0, 0.0, 1.162517784830064 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289094.851332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 470, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289094.851332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 470, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9594636956906414, 0.04053630430935858 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 47, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1064, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\n\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked <a href='https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/'>here</a>. It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens." }, { "id": 978, "title": "Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-california-abolish-daylight-savings-time-by-2020", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-17T16:33:22.429020Z", "published_at": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.084447Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-12T08:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-12T08:56:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 978, "title": "Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?", "created_at": "2018-06-17T16:33:22.429020Z", "open_time": "2018-06-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-21T18:20:34.575779Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-21T18:20:34.575779Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-03-12T08:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-03-12T08:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-03-12T08:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Daylight savings time was instituted for reasons that have been somewhat unclear or inapplicable for a long time, and probably has caused a lot of death and destruction. For an authoritative account of its history, along with a reasoned discussion of whether it should still be a thing, see [here.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br0NW9ufUUw)\n\nIn California a bill has been [passed that would put DST to the voters as a ballot initiative in November 2018.](https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Push-to-end-Daylight-Saving-Time-in-California-12997311.php?utm_campaign=reddit-desktop&utm_source=CMS%20Sharing%20Button&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=reddit-desktop&utm_source=CMS%20Sharing%20Button&utm_medium=social)(Though as of question launch it has not been signed by Governor Brown.)\n\nWe ask:\n\n*** Will California be off of daylight savings time in 2020? ***\n\nResolves positive if in 2020 there are no daylight savings times switches in spring, negative otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541389154.710244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 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"2018-06-19T11:40:29.317240Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There's something about drones – tiny little automated flying machines – that is simply fun, as attested to by their popularity around Christmas. And, there are lots of [very useful things they can now do](https://www.engadget.com/2017/02/07/6-of-the-best-uses-of-drones/).\n\nBut of course, drones can also be a bit creepy, and there is a dark side. For instance, this miltary-educated blogger discusses [havoc](https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/06/i-could-kill-you-consumer-drone/139012/) he could wreak with technology he could buy at Walmart or the Apple Store: \n\n> I’m holding a drone that can fly thousands of feet in air in less than 30 seconds, getting it to an altitude where no one could see it. My drone could be up in the air, ready to strike a target before you even had time to blink... It is not meant to take nice photos of my vacation. It is meant to strike. A small mechanism allows it to carry and drop a 2.5-pound payload — potentially grenades, bombs, even poison.\n\nMeanwhile, police can now use [weaponized drones](https://thefreethoughtproject.com/longer-conspiracy-theory-state-legalizes-weaponized-drones-cops/). And the sheer [number of ways](http://remotecontrolproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Hostile-use-of-drones-report_open-briefing.pdf) unsavory people could use these things for evil is disturbing.\n\nOver a year ago, the number of [registered drones](http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/28/technology/us-drone-registrations/index.html) in the U.S. was already pushing 1M. And that doesn't count the [unregistered ones](https://www.recode.net/2017/5/19/15663436/us-drone-registration-rules-faa).\n\nAll of this action appears to be leading to a [dark place.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA) Even if large-scale military use does not occur (which is by no means clear), it seems inevitable that someone in the United States will eventually be killed by a drone. \n\n*** Will that happen by end of 2018? ***\n\nQuestion resolves positive if there's a substantiated news report of at least one death-by-drone on U.S. soil before January 1, 2019.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1536990995.15724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1536990995.15724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], 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"Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?", "created_at": "2018-06-16T22:54:44.556275Z", "open_time": "2018-06-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-20T10:16:52.706232Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-20T10:16:52.706232Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-30T21:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The gravitational-wave detector known as LIGO is in serious effect. Since September 2015, it has detected [5 black hole mergers](https://www.space.com/38816-gravitational-waves-fifth-ligo-black-hole-crash.html) and one (amazing) merger of two distant [neutron stars](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/page/press-release-gw170817).\n\nFor the wonks in the audience, this [link](https://www.ligo.org/detections.php) gives technical specs on all the confirmed LIGO events to date.\n\nHere's what's interesting, though. The last merger announcement took place last November... about an event called GW170608 that was detected [over a year ago](https://www.ligo.org/detections/GW170608.php). \n\nUnless the LIGO skeptics [have a point](https://gizmodo.com/controversial-new-gravitational-waves-paper-shows-scien-1796343357) have a point, we should get some fresh new mergers in the hopper any day now. Right?\n\n*** Will a gravitational wave observatory officially announce the discovery of a 6th black hole-black hole merge by the end of summer 2018 (September 22, 2018)? ***\n\nResolution is by positive appearance at the above-linked [detection list](https://www.ligo.org/detections.php)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1533073343.573443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1533073343.573443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.17937020599217227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1667988697180096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2502213545617073, 0.9873526308182007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 3.232975025761304, 0.0, 0.02594172897048416, 0.6421761366506048, 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before 2018 is out?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out", "author_id": 104272, "author_username": "AdamKosloff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-16T22:51:01.739816Z", "published_at": "2018-06-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.804908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:27:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The lunar South Pole is a desolate place--empty, astonishingly cold, hidden from view. But there's [something special](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_south_pole) about the region. Scientists believe substantial reservoirs of frozen liquid water hide in the permanent shadows. Perhaps, this water could sustain a future human moon base.\n\nTo explore this and other urgent hypotheses about Earth's nearest neighbor, India is set to launch the Chandrayaan-2 space mission this year. Space.com [reports](https://www.space.com/40136-chandrayaan-2.html): \n\n> the new [Chandrayaan] mission will consist of an orbiter, a lander and a rover. The orbiter will perform mapping from an altitude of 100 kilometers (62 miles), while the lander will make a soft landing on the surface and send out the rover.\n\nIndia Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has [more details](https://www.isro.gov.in/gslv-f10-chandrayaan-2-mission) about the mission: \n\n> The mission will carry a six-wheeled Rover which will move around the landing site in semi-autonomous mode as decided by the ground commands... The payloads will collect scientific information on lunar topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, lunar exosphere and signatures of hydroxyl and water-ice.\n\nLaunch is scheduled for late October. It was initially set to sail to the stars in April, but command grounded it for an additional six months. ISRO's Dr. Arun Sinha [cryptically remarked](http://www.astronomy.com/news/2018/04/chandrayaan-2-will-now-launch-in-october-2018): \"Being a very complex mission with a lander, rover, and an orbiter, more critical tests are planned,”\n\n*** Will Chandrayaan-2 successfully blast off before 2018 is out? ***\n \nResolution is positive if the rocket lifts off and clears 100 km; success of the mission as a whole is not required.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539562632.854644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539562632.854644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05002388966697243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.153317595922427, 0.21396839273149582, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 972, "title": "Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-germany-win-the-fifa-world-cup", "author_id": 103376, "author_username": "Psykick", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-06-13T21:12:01.068032Z", "published_at": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.996120Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-06-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-06-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-06-27T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-06-27T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 972, "title": "Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup?", "created_at": "2018-06-13T21:12:01.068032Z", "open_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-06-18T01:10:23.724948Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-06-18T01:10:23.724948Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-06-27T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-06-27T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-06-27T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-06-25T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-06-25T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "No nation has ever successfully defended a World Cup except for Brazil in 1962.\n\nSince 2002, 3 out of the 4 defending champions have been eliminated in the first round group stage. France in 2002, Italy in 2010 and Spain in 2014. Again, the only exception here is Brazil in 2006 who managed to get to the quarterfinals at WC2006.\n \nHowever, Germany is still one of the favourites, [according to the bookmakers](https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner).\n\n*** Can they retain their FIFA World Cup in 2018? ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1529956683.254131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1529956683.254131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.1535861231391168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6406049270051695, 0.12724691537418747, 0.2906730883457752, 0.03663966570762298, 0.6573593420473403, 0.0, 0.021612403177388988, 1.07372955823022, 0.01931126599571368, 1.7857983079352386, 0.18761293738011062, 1.3308277779646907, 0.17825577517493535, 1.422854799850898, 3.1178453741556025, 0.0, 0.28632223511574934, 0.13359668999615895, 0.1377839304008241, 1.3030487845151237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.836592923989266, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.11889549513703665, 0.0, 0.06428466784992416, 0.38777697049260146, 0.4389766355214183, 0.029873235309733973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3118617075785659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17391556805192088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.0432920776373735, "coverage": 0.9424679720032415, "baseline_score": 74.00378460837827, "spot_peer_score": -3.6705619120493855, "peer_archived_score": 3.0432920776373735, "baseline_archived_score": 74.00378460837827, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6705619120493855 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1529935864.181219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1529935864.181219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8647959988469803, 0.13520400115301964 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
