Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5960
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But we have no idea whose it is. The three main contenders are (a) Ford, who transferred before he dies, (b) William/MIB, or (c) Arnold, the person on whom Bernard is based. The last seems to be something of a favorite, so we'll ask:\n\n*** By the end of season 2, will it be revealed that the marble taken from the lab by Bernard contains the mind of Arnold? ***\n\nThere's an accompanying theory that the guy who woke up on the beach all confused is Arnold (in a host) rather than Bernard-as-host; but that's a side bet you can make on your own. (If necessary, question will close retroactively to prior to the episode in which a relevant reveal is made.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1528304212.995183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1528304212.995183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.44311568117678246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8895643965396423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7591555979297057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9244383481296953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2714154180589184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6888944248518107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 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"start_time": 1527922110.852191, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6726474584417358, 0.3273525415582642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 912, "title": "Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-announce-it-is-enriching-uranium-above-the-40-level-before-23-may-2018", "author_id": 104439, "author_username": "IARPA Question Bot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-05-16T19:30:30.968993Z", "published_at": "2018-05-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.908026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-05-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T15:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2018-05-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 912, "title": "Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?", "created_at": "2018-05-16T19:30:30.968993Z", "open_time": "2018-05-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-05-20T14:11:50.981657Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-05-20T14:11:50.981657Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T15:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-05-24T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html).*\n\nOn 8 May 2018 the U.S. declared that they were withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and will re-impose sanctions on Iran. Iran says it will remain in the deal, which tightly restricted its nuclear development for a decade in return for ending the sanctions. <a href = \"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html\"target=\"_blank\">NY Times</a>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 912, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1527011335.089698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1527011335.089698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05418848361731021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.10907182704178, 1.2702746785725014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5270170626125668, 1.895440287834636, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.07557908443735797, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9635063547950458, 0.03649364520495423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 906, "title": "Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-launch-a-medium-intermediate-or-intercontinental-range-ballistic-missile-or-a-satellite-between-16-and-23-may-2018", "author_id": 104439, "author_username": "IARPA Question Bot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-05-16T19:30:30.658531Z", "published_at": "2018-05-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.498402Z", "curation_status": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 906, "title": "Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?", "created_at": "2018-05-16T19:30:30.658531Z", "open_time": "2018-05-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-05-17T06:36:28.472919Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-05-17T06:36:28.472919Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-24T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-05-24T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-22T18:01:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html).*\n\nThe Trump administration has announced that it is withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal and is considering additional sanctions over Iran's missile program (<a href = \"https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/10/daring-missile-strike-by-iran-signals-it-could-become-more-aggressive.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>, <a href = \"https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-urges-other-nations-to-sanction-iran-over-ballistic-missiles/2018/04/28/eb7c8613-686d-4bff-b05a-7070f8611aea_story.html\"target=\"_blank\">The Washington Post</a>). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (<a href = \"http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/23/middleeast/iran-ballistic-missile-test/index.html\"target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>, <a href = \"http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35752974\"target=\"_blank\">BBC</a>) and the July 2017 satellite launch (<a href = \"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-satellite/u-s-says-iran-rocket-test-breaches-u-n-resolution-idUSKBN1AC1YY\"target=\"_blank\">Reuters</a>). For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see: <a href = \"https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles\"target=\"_blank\">Arms Control</a>.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 906, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1526995156.182823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1526995156.182823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0326121428530177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.580738043640416, 0.4573391763706963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36625687591726286, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.6326900287523809, 0.042758697280429345, 0.0, 0.42052548288015196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 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Two of the cases were confirmed as ebola.\n\nAt the time of this writing an additional [two cases of ebola have been confirmed, with 11 more suspected.]( https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/05/10/health/drc-confirms-first-ebola-death/index.html>)\n\n*** Will this outbreak be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola? ***\n\nResolution will be based on WHO data when they declare the outbreak over.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 900, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1527868994.923327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1527868994.923327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2066008244321459 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0560339810336803, 0.19342416143746716, 0.08625829385506563, 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States' GDP at the time?", "short_title": "Richest Person in 2033 Has 2% GDP", "url_title": "Richest Person in 2033 Has 2% GDP", "slug": "richest-person-in-2033-has-2-gdp", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-05-10T18:21:13.394909Z", "published_at": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T09:05:55.572199Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 232, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 899, "title": "Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?", "created_at": "2018-05-10T18:21:13.394909Z", "open_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-05-15T20:59:19.958032Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-05-15T20:59:19.958032Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller'>John D. Rockefeller</a> is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\n\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?", "resolution_criteria": "Data for resolution shall be taken from the <a href=' https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/'>2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)</a>. Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 899, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762938345.368069, "end_time": 1764998869.153861, "forecaster_count": 170, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762938345.368069, "end_time": 1764998869.153861, "forecaster_count": 170, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5101270744928845 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.29100002447864454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047138086717279735, 0.3690547648918017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7937754088324446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025610524324657644, 0.1658497940234867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005550109155234176, 0.00047450424045628704, 0.39191095104640966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022201032389897552, 0.9950547869611499, 0.0007410422508816687, 0.0, 0.0006226347040958777, 0.0, 0.9677509812431336, 0.0008775252655358566, 0.007804521462661735, 1.3136522336158307, 0.0, 6.949170289906071e-05, 0.0, 6.74581675374946e-05, 0.3395466045571922, 0.0, 0.12104598071834793, 0.025871625072622296, 0.12361316738731312, 0.043335920060421765, 0.0, 3.8251590009908747, 0.007733150576882421, 1.0099606053217736, 0.20722484864480067, 0.4918523031205726, 0.9658617235754314, 0.08582889426825094, 0.11887381866736925, 0.6247552593540906, 1.0315538895613394, 0.4021180222514149, 0.5545888411899225, 0.2973348768743902, 0.0, 0.5314680536702938, 0.5382698159888576, 0.27497786212088704, 1.3062514154282345, 0.5042807457868705, 0.06758803033803208, 1.0447245460309555, 0.19463085624031554, 0.8264047259679543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3365174322803827, 0.0, 0.08201086132250894, 0.0, 1.2294555905977476e-05, 1.0740880296980695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6275310728289204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9711340690931451, 0.05036145444406933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01576110010944624, 0.009929401871517142, 0.0006797114664619946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13023629685050386, 0.4081355510218225 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289296.03816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289296.03816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5960830098692087, 0.40391699013079124 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 525, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller'>John D. Rockefeller</a> is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\n\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?" }, { "id": 898, "title": "Will the US Senate vote to keep net neutrality", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-senate-vote-to-keep-net-neutrality", "author_id": 100518, "author_username": "traviswfisher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-05-10T09:51:25.381139Z", "published_at": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.303027Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-16T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-16T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-16T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-16T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 898, "title": "Will the US Senate vote to keep net neutrality", "created_at": "2018-05-10T09:51:25.381139Z", "open_time": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-05-10T16:36:03.317346Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-05-10T16:36:03.317346Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-16T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-16T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-05-16T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-16T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-16T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In December, 2017, the FCC voted to repeal rules it had made under the Obama administration requiring internet providers to obey so-called \"net neutrality.\"\n\nThose rules generally require the ISPs to treat all network traffic equally, not prioritizing or filtering traffic based on extra fees or special treatment for certain sites or services.\n\nCongress has the power to override the FCC's rule-making in this matter. Recently a group led by senate democrats has forced a vote on this issue. [The vote is expected the week of May 14-18.](www.theverge.com/2018/5/9/17333108/net-neutrality-congressional-review-act-cra-resolution-vote-senate)\n\nEven if the senate were to vote to keep the rules, it would require a similar vote in the house of representatives to override the FCC's decision. If that vote comes up it can be a seperate question.\n\n*** Will the senate vote to keep in place net neutrality rules? ***\n\nResolves ambiguous if for whatever reason, no vote is taken by June 13. 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was previously asked whether <a href='https://www.metaculus.com/questions/589/will-tesla-go-out-of-business-before-2019/'>Tesla would go bankrupt by 2019</a>. The Metaculus prediction on that question ended up being 10% and that (in the writer's opinion) still feels about right as of the writing of this question. Tesla may run out of money within 2018, yet even a rather unsuccessful capital raise is likely to save them into 2019.\n\nYet, whether Tesla will survive through 2019 is another question. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is burning through about $6,500 dollars a minute and is still lagging behind on Model 3 production.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will Tesla file for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2020?</strong>\n\nShould Tesla file for bankruptcy while this question is still open, the question shall be closed retroactively at the point 5 hours before the announcement. Of course, if Tesla files for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2019, the question shall still resolve positive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 889, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546270845.287931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546270845.287931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.20090446858736835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2586995403374361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4892359292110529, 1.9753476760802071, 0.0, 0.0024886099114164706, 1.3250460437381901, 1.5928113737770506, 0.3487409159572936, 0.0, 1.39188390472371, 0.18909583042315942, 0.0, 0.2922258484728104, 0.06453879363971683, 0.9518130621787826, 0.7032275308068453, 0.0, 1.5088415166658302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 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] }, "question": { "id": 888, "title": "Will security patches against \"Specter-NG\" vulnerabilities be available for end-users by September 2018?", "created_at": "2018-05-04T21:11:28.320370Z", "open_time": "2018-05-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-05-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-10T05:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-10T05:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-10T05:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Last year security researches succeeded in extracting data across presumed secure boundaries -- using side-channel attacks with creative use of speculative execution. Those vulnerabilities even hit the mass media, by the names of Spectre and Meltdown.\n\nThe German technology magazine c't has just released an article that [new vulnerabilities similar to Spectre][spectre-ng] ([original German][spectre-ng-de]) and comparable or stronger impact will soon be announced.\n\nIntel would like to promise patches for May and August, and given that one of the vulnerabilities has been reported by Google Zero -- which uses a rather strict deadline for public reports -- Intel would do well to fulfill such promises.\n\nHowever, their track-record is rather sad: Even the patches for the previous round of speculative-execution attacks are, de-facto, not available to the public. But patches only work when deployed; in that spirit:\n\n**Will patches fixing this round of Specter-NG vulnerabilities be available for end-user via automatic Windows 10 updates by the end of August, for the most recent micro-architecture?**\n\n* Performance penalties are immaterial to whether a patch counts for question resolution.\n* All vulnerabilities with an impact similar to Meltdown and Spectre must be fixed; smaller issues (like only theoretically possible, but no working PoC, or strictly more limited impact) may be patched later. Given that the list of issues is not yet known, this is more in line with the headlines use of \"Spectre-NG\".\n* The patches should install themselves via automatic Windows Update if used in default configuration.\n* The patches must be available for at least the last affected CPU microarchitecture from Intel, Skylake.\n* The patches must be available for at least [two major motherboard makers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_computer_hardware_manufacturers#Motherboards) (either 1 Top plus 3 others, or at least 2 Top)\n* This question is about end-user systems; ergo servers, manually downloaded hotfixes etc. are outside of the scope of this question.\n\nIn case Specter-NG is a dud (i.e. gets demoted in importance to a low level), this question resolves ambiguous.\n\n[spectre-ng]: https://www.heise.de/ct/artikel/Exclusive-Spectre-NG-Multiple-new-Intel-CPU-flaws-revealed-several-serious-4040648.html\n\n[spectre-ng-de]: 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"binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. 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Fan speculation on this question is widespread, with more than a few, shall we say, *unusual* theories currently in the running. These include the idea that Westworld is located on [another planet](http://www.slashfilm.com/westworld-location-theory/), or that it’s kept underneath an enormous [dome](http://www.player.one/where-westworld-what-finale-revealed-about-parks-location-573358). \n\nWhile it's true that domes have the advantage of eliminating narrative-incompatible weather patterns and flyovers, would situating Westworld on an island solve the same logistical issues without delving into *The Truman Show* territory? 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15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 824, "title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?", "created_at": "2018-04-21T21:43:28.350874Z", "open_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-25T16:24:03.599334Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-25T16:24:03.599334Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion.", "resolution_criteria": "For these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the first such reactor is built in China, and will resolve as **No** if the first such reactor is built anywhere else.\n\nIf no such reactor is built before January 1, 2050, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 824, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759582434.591516, "end_time": 1767343544.86571, "forecaster_count": 318, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759582434.591516, "end_time": 1767343544.86571, "forecaster_count": 318, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.31002542808526895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8808634952647868, 1.5379237967146597, 0.0, 0.0015419031582161113, 0.6901133161195316, 0.003003517063452749, 0.0, 0.9832263835671914, 0.549445781693081, 1.9268008771991705, 0.0, 0.6211946355826703, 0.937306325068423, 0.17568238223081073, 1.6570381720321852, 1.6710669748738405, 0.13711714643782646, 0.09558232969281312, 0.0016111609882681391, 3.399767808597894, 0.011424268327946966, 0.28670962818504003, 0.31052188330439917, 0.004700211850258475, 2.4809746613692565, 0.01207382841283968, 0.0, 2.8050541180945534, 0.0, 0.4993102559567387, 0.9191415422275132, 0.0009840415998933166, 0.41050858979512733, 0.03005573526788589, 0.426716767790406, 0.2935569435332082, 0.04947738178574731, 0.11501880671513402, 0.005610234005998567, 0.35054846587265853, 0.45002344976639475, 0.00017079391274166619, 0.0, 0.0010187515372451863, 0.5467221654186643, 0.05325365816715721, 4.2538259903779135e-07, 0.45728236844584025, 0.001408180839897625, 0.9223841719011053, 0.8694883530900237, 0.3983379572745903, 0.0, 0.0022458617330672207, 0.7326120121345595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004595604838465257, 2.4545118845098077, 0.6533389361768518, 0.0, 0.00020241804952374296, 0.3232719331574075, 0.004263393733421381, 0.0, 0.07922241842068815, 0.001683245745879636, 0.0, 0.35356113153843366, 0.0, 0.00017210546332057798, 0.0, 0.0, 7.890966215517999e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009408483834856219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2745890378598118e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5750294707263985 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289101.368413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 323, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289101.368413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 323, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9102465739686314, 0.08975342603136863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 44, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 670, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion." }, { "id": 809, "title": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023", "author_id": 104272, "author_username": "AdamKosloff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-18T19:09:38.020360Z", "published_at": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.931472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-12T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 180, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 809, "title": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?", "created_at": "2018-04-18T19:09:38.020360Z", "open_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-22T00:47:17.643970Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-22T00:47:17.643970Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-12T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-12T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's \"inner circle\" to the following people:\n\n* [Donald Trump himself](http://www.newsweek.com/could-trump-face-jail-time-mueller-investigation-776140)\n* [Donald Trump Junior](http://www.newsweek.com/jared-kushner-donald-trump-jr-steve-bannon-michael-wolff-money-laundering-771166)\n* [Ivanka Trump](http://www.newsweek.com/will-mueller-charge-ivanka-trump-russia-investigation-2018-773055)\n* [Jared Kushner](https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/11/jared-kushners-chances-of-staying-out-of-prison-ju.html)\n* Mike Pence\n* [Michael Cohen](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/13/17226678/michael-cohen-raid-trump-pardon-law)\n* John Kelly\n* Hope Hicks\n* [Steve Bannon](https://lawandcrime.com/legal-analysis/bannon-could-face-contempt-sanctions-for-not-answering-questions/)\n\nNote #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals.\n\nNote #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Trump have had a falling out, simply because of how influential he was earlier in the Presidency. \n\n*** Will a judge sentence at least one of these people to a jail sentence by Jan 1., 2023? ***\n\nResolution is positive even if the person is pardoned, as long as the pardon comes *after* conviction. 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"score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 808, "title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?", "created_at": "2018-04-18T19:03:26.247870Z", "open_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-22T04:17:18.460577Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-22T04:17:18.460577Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\n\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\n\nOr maybe not.\n\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\n\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found *us*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if humanity discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa before January 1, 2045 and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. If extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa, this question will resolve as **No**. If no extraterrestrial life is found before 2045, this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nNote: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 808, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762031172.504626, "end_time": 1768631822.610914, "forecaster_count": 274, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762031172.504626, "end_time": 1768631822.610914, "forecaster_count": 274, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.32969007348974816 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.133559392598052, 1.075227483716093, 0.6146434783686262, 0.600080621229784, 0.0, 0.4725802222079048, 0.0, 0.00015962301463991516, 0.19363746889678843, 0.551317562591123, 2.6674637925173563, 1.675030537252665e-05, 0.2960182407587048, 1.5407588621267156, 0.15908815489452932, 1.4701677995558602, 0.09198122475697404, 0.05042662470143083, 0.2027999332934066, 0.019049523091664685, 1.507171461591864, 0.03668051655503836, 0.032446453775979156, 0.27105124262816, 0.0004961295641791703, 1.681555837783975, 0.0013712311137434824, 0.5267168136594766, 1.2271915687621209, 0.0, 0.8771331012360758, 0.09164475160686973, 0.03212728996771237, 1.376008467943706, 0.1601666317470246, 0.542601390520288, 0.056462409950685175, 0.7203515282930394, 0.03337330602747441, 1.068847612096897, 2.1988730312021745, 0.06962515182127751, 3.6590410368052747e-07, 0.8489727120675509, 0.0008535449285588031, 1.069739390557253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00159277287476666, 0.0, 0.4530837725216643, 0.0026776933522820443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0438047326448725e-05, 4.2237392171385165e-05, 0.5752529871773536, 0.0, 0.6515312869327388, 0.006603528577481614, 0.0, 2.382419281398248e-06, 0.046784291036684605, 0.0015750938536123755, 1.7597122365315952e-07, 0.3814567087707447, 0.012953493724932383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002914845839499607, 0.0, 0.2416658222776262, 0.3351019304269644, 0.0, 0.0007957787163596688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007676982254868638, 0.0, 0.007976200608780258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8857959744035069, 0.0, 7.62206949113642e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7148585292743447, 0.0, 0.737220277120811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7297842792674027e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9772063688476562 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288625.0629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288625.0629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8731642487380167, 0.12683575126198332 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 561, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\n\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\n\nOr maybe not.\n\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\n\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found *us*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!" }, { "id": 804, "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?", "short_title": "1000th binary question resolution is positive", "url_title": "1000th binary question resolution is positive", "slug": "1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:30:59.433024Z", "published_at": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.541284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:23:00Z", "open_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32598, "name": "2020-2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2020_2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 804, "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?", "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:30:59.433024Z", "open_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-04T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-04T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-24T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was previously asked <a href=' https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/'>whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive</a>. The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\n\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a <strong>future</strong> question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\n\nIt is asked: **Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?**\n\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641314891.193711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641314891.193711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3562731687896176 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14081903808657956, 0.0, 1.6314215531908371, 0.0, 0.03331582689027622, 1.8195774008344414, 0.01162923170852879, 0.7659447020519956, 0.0, 0.0042606242280195635, 1.501840870833834, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636218179.171091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.648156990803449, 0.3518430091965509 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 803, "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc", "author_id": 101002, "author_username": "babtras", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:02:03.254478Z", "published_at": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.019510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 803, "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:02:03.254478Z", "open_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-19T23:09:27.586728Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-19T23:09:27.586728Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\n\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\n\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\n\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\n\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\n\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\n\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. 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