Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5980
{ "count": 6414, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=5960", "results": [ { "id": 803, "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc", "author_id": 101002, "author_username": "babtras", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:02:03.254478Z", "published_at": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.019510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 803, "title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?", "created_at": "2018-04-17T18:02:03.254478Z", "open_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-19T23:09:27.586728Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-19T23:09:27.586728Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\n\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\n\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\n\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\n\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\n\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\n\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1556575991.871598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1556575991.871598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5374445277952765 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04312588980096745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701716540950928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.03287801278132071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4847057073964217, 0.5152942926035783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 800, "title": "Will May Day protests turn violent?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-may-day-protests-turn-violent", "author_id": 5, "author_username": "max.wainwright", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-16T16:00:18.821916Z", "published_at": "2018-04-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.219291Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-17T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-02T03:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-02T03:20:00Z", "open_time": "2018-04-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 800, "title": "Will May Day protests turn violent?", "created_at": "2018-04-16T16:00:18.821916Z", "open_time": "2018-04-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-17T14:18:28.010905Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-17T14:18:28.010905Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-05-02T03:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-05-02T03:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-05-02T03:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Spring is here, which means it is time to start planning May Day celebrations. For many, May Day is a time to celebrate the end of winter and ugly weather, and to dance around a [pole](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maypole) with colorful ribbon. To others, May Day is better known as [International Workers' Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Workers%27_Day), a day to fight for workers' rights and, often, rebel against capitalism. The 1886 protests that led to the very first May Day culminated in a [bomb attack in Chicago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haymarket_affair), killing at least 11 people and resulting in convictions against 8 anarchists. Ever since, May Day has been [marked](https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/28) by [sporadic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_May_Day_protests) [violence](https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/02/us/seattle-may-day-protests/index.html), including some violent protests [last](https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/violence-erupts-during-may-day-protests-in-portland/) [year](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/may-day-protests-turn-violent-portland-police-cancel-permits-n753611).\n\n***Will there be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?***\n\nBecause police violence is often much more clearly delineated than civilian violence, this question's resolution criteria will focus on the former. Specifically, this question will resolve **positive** if there are credible reports of police using fire arms, pepper spray, tear gas, batons, flash bangs, or any other weapon against protesters. It will also resolve positive if any protesters are killed in an interaction with police, regardless of whether or not weapons were used.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 800, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1525145508.407181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1525145508.407181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6720911749781698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.28368921179538853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39399817220008165, 0.005978849674628248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5234095009790177, 0.0016134421732207857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.37182283818623535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304810365226298, 0.008048751044204331, 0.0, 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"peer_archived_score": 29.90233489434567, "baseline_archived_score": 33.93824617471873, "spot_peer_archived_score": -24.438402891512823 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1525104852.173136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1525104852.173136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44502952879499336, 0.5549704712050066 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 797, "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "short_title": "Puerto Rico Becomes US State by 2035", "url_title": "Puerto Rico Becomes US State by 2035", "slug": "puerto-rico-becomes-us-state-by-2035", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-14T17:54:15.255599Z", "published_at": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T02:07:12.631296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 376, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 797, "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?", "created_at": "2018-04-14T17:54:15.255599Z", "open_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-17T18:50:11.543000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-17T18:50:11.543000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \n\nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n\n- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n\n- Receive Medicaid and Medicare\n\n- Vote in Presidential primaries\n\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n\n- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n\n- Get access to other government programs\n\n- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator\n\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\n\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\n\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n\n> 40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\n\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \n\n> To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \n\nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\n\n> While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood.\n“The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763569263.21007, "end_time": 1767752710.71727, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763569263.21007, "end_time": 1767752710.71727, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.27079348374107837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.293222778725025, 0.0024603601712450077, 0.0, 0.3601933247082744, 0.0, 0.8707876368217687, 0.0, 0.3498154124630443, 5.811948827526261e-06, 0.0, 3.0378540200160815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11785364177237, 0.0, 3.501402501481224, 1.6313422689952626, 1.214553048853341, 1.4835876591534727, 0.24403998369074403, 2.9825942089764843, 0.19990080068668253, 1.0001568988116838, 0.17073365519930392, 0.3204465080098159, 2.1293483987796455, 0.8133997062678088, 0.07845285118191304, 0.7063148997474479, 0.3110522424549985, 1.578669355811601, 0.7948997670567035, 0.0, 0.8963619536483429, 1.0591914799925342, 0.41484431089734586, 0.067085365295503, 0.03312598416217682, 0.3474821761593414, 0.2841574087149144, 0.8857150874146169, 1.1651579314891418, 0.12849474197224497, 0.43374101928595143, 0.21679486472501358, 0.15756699498318152, 1.2593481623900797, 0.0, 0.0024727693389283937, 0.04335396360833608, 0.5174673485301713, 0.02144519624910755, 0.03281866565004394, 0.024698517911059138, 0.00765912152064345, 0.26702182857105383, 0.0019251171720936684, 0.05784229353833863, 0.0, 0.013916375026295235, 0.10342281415538279, 2.1731395612032687e-06, 0.07562208038446303, 0.22432540529398556, 0.08960405020052464, 0.11346030401242452, 0.9453998104415918, 9.342668658607897e-06, 9.347402668359725e-05, 0.0, 0.13446063543926118, 0.004378292355390386, 0.0, 0.0008693014144145094, 0.0, 0.03573957510368812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4288102860916126, 0.05279158674853717, 0.0, 0.018553809393057438, 4.880705500572295e-07, 6.8356489386622355e-06, 0.0, 0.013325414717742616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.592329297879392e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005358785539359982 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290287.940515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 361, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290287.940515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 361, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7928101323459709, 0.2071898676540291 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 51, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 827, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \n\nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n\n- Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n\n- Receive Medicaid and Medicare\n\n- Vote in Presidential primaries\n\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n\n- Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n\n- Get access to other government programs\n\n- Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator\n\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\n\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\n\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n\n> 40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\n\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \n\n> To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \n\nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\n\n> While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood.\n“The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago." }, { "id": 796, "title": "Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "would-a-democratically-controlled-house-impeach-president-trump-before-the-2020-elections", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-04-14T17:49:36.124032Z", "published_at": "2018-04-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.662002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-04-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-19T04:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-19T04:53:00Z", "open_time": "2018-04-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 796, "title": "Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?", "created_at": "2018-04-14T17:49:36.124032Z", "open_time": "2018-04-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-16T06:52:05.312547Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-16T06:52:05.312547Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-19T04:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-19T04:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-19T04:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the mid term elections this November. They have a durable 6 (or so) point advantage in polling, at least as of late March [according to 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo).\n\nAnd a [recent win in a special election](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/14/17109448/pennsylvania-special-election-conor-lamb-defeats-rick-saccone) in Pennsylvania--in a district won convincingly by Trump in 2016--suggests that they have a shot at reclaiming the House.\n\nIf they do succeed, an interesting scenario comes into play. Namely, there will be pressure on elected Democrats to take the fight to Trump and [impeach him](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/26/impeachment-debate-democrats-2018-congress-314634).\n\nSome Democratic strategists think this is a good idea. Others say it would be foolish. \n\nPer [Politico](https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/26/impeachment-debate-democrats-2018-congress-314634):\n\n> Polls on the question show as many as three-quarters of Democrats already back impeachment, and one deep-pocketed ally, California megadonor Tom Steyer, has been mounting an expensive pressure campaign across the country to build support for Trump's impeachment. Democratic hostility toward the Republican president seems to intensify daily.\n\n> But lawmakers who recall the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton are wary of sparking a political backlash for appearing too eager to remove a president without buy-in from independents and even some Republicans.\n\nWe're not here to debate the wisdom (or lack thereof) of such a strategy. We just want to know: *** do you think they'd follow through and do it? ***\n\nThis question is contingent on Democrats controlling the house. Question resolves positive if the U.S. House of Representatives has a Democratic Speaker, and votes to impeach President Trump before the November 2020 elections. Resolves negative if the House is Democratic at some point between the November 2018 and November 2020 elections and does *not* vote to impeach by the November 2020 elections. 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"name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018\">next Ontario Provincial elections </a>will elect members of the Ontario Legislative Assembly, the parliament of Ontario, on June 7th, 2018. \n\nOntario is divided into a series of 124 ridings. Each riding will elect a member of provincial parliament to represent itself using first past the post voting. The party that controls the most ridings wins the election, although if they do not get at least 63 seats they will be a minority government and will likely have to form a coalition or the government will be dissolved.\n\nThe Premier of Ontario is the leader of the party with the most members of provincial parliament elected.\n\nThe current most likely candidates for Premier are <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Ford_Jr.\">Doug Ford</a>, leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party; incumbent <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Wynne\">Kathleen Wynne, leader of the Ontario Liberal party</a>; and <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Horwath\">Andrea Horwath\"</a>, leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party.\n\n*** Will Doug Ford be elected the next Premier of Ontario in the upcoming election? ***\n\nThis question resolves positive if the CBC reports that Doug Ford won the election. 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Korea in 2018?", "created_at": "2018-03-29T14:40:31.407549Z", "open_time": "2018-04-01T14:40:31.395000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-01T21:26:40.100578Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-01T21:26:40.100578Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-23T14:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-23T14:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-23T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Ever-heightening rhetoric on both the North Korean and US side is creating a dangerous situation in North Korea, with both sides flat-out threatening to obliterate the other last year.\n\nThere has been some potential movement in the (surprising) acceptance by Trump of an [offer to meet with Kim Jong Un](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/677/will-trump-and-kim-jong-un-actually-meet/).\n\nOn the other hand, John Bolton, the recently appointed National Security Advisor, is notoriously hawkish, and the removal of Rex Tillerson, has left many analysts [deeply worried](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/john-bolton-trump-national-security-adviser.html).\n\nWhile most analysts believe that an unprovoked nuclear strike is unlikely, there are concerns about many pathways to an steady escalation that could lead to a significant conventional or even nuclear war, as outlined in [this sobering article](http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-korean-war-20170925-story.html). \n\nWe'll ask here about the worst case scenario (or among them):\n\n*** Will a US-led military nuclear first-strike occur in N. 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"2018-03-26T09:36:11.361975Z", "open_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-29T19:11:24.418228Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-29T19:11:24.418228Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:32:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\n\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\n\nIn another question [here](www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a SpaceX-branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on the surface of Mars by January 1, 2030.\n\nIf SpaceX has at least one clear landing objective, a landing will be considered a success if it fulfils at least one of them. If SpaceX does not have any clear landing objectives, then a successful landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining largely intact and able to communicate with the Earth.\n\nA \"SpaceX-branded\" mission is defined to mean that the SpaceX-associated logos on the spacecraft involved (both the boosters and the Mars-bound craft) have a larger surface area than the logos of any other entity", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763894590.644843, "end_time": 1767139364.74865, "forecaster_count": 2122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763894590.644843, "end_time": 1767139364.74865, "forecaster_count": 2122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.268222594265269 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4758080971461913, 0.5981389701164144, 0.1986262402031063, 1.365516199194695, 1.0836192971440888, 3.3363692648075003, 0.2540002780906835, 5.9517985014741726, 2.0793816943604364, 0.7401272547563378, 10.736796735332973, 1.1424010592715081, 3.9005105172813987, 1.2425121370278929, 0.8682029699142362, 3.2262549067613087, 0.8509785829683589, 9.582657694954209, 2.7742077956326465, 0.0709044621860952, 3.5190050204127843, 0.10313147857210148, 0.1562884132827767, 0.5069591733948466, 0.39139995870326316, 2.1974453560196463, 0.5665247462240457, 3.331194302897055, 1.6154983065715718, 0.0, 2.958638082669876, 1.2697899288592647, 0.21392579195565753, 1.2037853460562018, 2.788201806838177e-06, 0.4255128326238411, 0.12447863350158589, 0.5371013544774724, 0.04178433711547633, 0.02599944415074014, 1.5467442765154853, 0.09545109343657832, 0.010936866878107257, 0.005432458060413552, 0.007579215988253398, 1.818749517324494, 0.0030693423799155566, 0.004673506484233779, 0.02035182618728456, 0.004175705038880696, 0.5117013007002508, 0.025588845387043896, 0.0009020042823155748, 0.007383171591363596, 0.4105659292732153, 0.9937088628644944, 0.30763706232394583, 0.17183814897997157, 0.0, 0.002350993773540419, 0.9379179878229436, 0.029427567001373275, 0.0025024504960329272, 0.005481550232215198, 0.0010072911078842011, 0.05153616428317482, 0.004141995646047733, 0.008913672400831235, 0.5441266434183307, 0.0006303050042253505, 1.0071399671265635, 0.002493415635033858, 0.0023949902982855816, 0.0017784561902461176, 0.0008161526584459333, 0.657397219966817, 0.687092891380427, 0.7849534967555474, 2.023584931257729e-06, 0.3344824007811898, 1.6035376729008939, 1.1580799587512501e-05, 0.00022586949915918977, 0.001092240010051082, 0.0005879949160895958, 1.7909203373241076, 0.00011080682254316526, 0.0005032602623325381, 0.09052384528527621, 3.616802563803741e-11, 2.1223328687589236, 0.0002102337195359436, 1.0773349118134707e-11, 0.822183674659776, 8.771605174156014e-13, 0.09175431959697658, 8.794895539500504e-06, 0.4939833364696459, 1.1948148884636555e-13, 0.9329054046572065 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288717.230857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288717.230857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1175, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.845102869017409, 0.15489713098259092 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 178, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4475, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\n\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\n\nIn another question [here](www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030." }, { "id": 736, "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", "short_title": "GWP Doubles in 4 Years vs. 1 Year by 2050", "url_title": "GWP Doubles in 4 Years vs. 1 Year by 2050", "slug": "gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050", "author_id": 101911, "author_username": "tetraspace", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-25T15:31:09.102582Z", "published_at": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T11:43:37.340979Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 222, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 736, "title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?", "created_at": "2018-03-25T15:31:09.102582Z", "open_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-31T03:13:21.402404Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-31T03:13:21.402404Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a 8-year GWP doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10574/gwp-to-double-in-8-years-before-2-years/)\n* [Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\n\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762367585.128627, "end_time": 1764236984.311, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762367585.128627, "end_time": 1764236984.311, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.560981651567786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04551658999696262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8439667538641171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16770921429175015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20624057618181335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006099057432257295, 0.34725765232899347, 0.0, 0.1387825234714067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16951105235116384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033500713065430564, 0.274903035196283, 0.6233869558669837, 0.42339633171582763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2531079631100033, 0.01654665692947506, 0.0, 1.1166113239250313, 0.0, 0.19660594685104707, 0.0, 0.00820284465952971, 0.0, 0.01950492748404346, 2.0516979288993014, 0.3020588359324759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.880731944099847, 0.26218934793952114, 2.512393171785352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7665249336736426, 0.6362269984115776, 0.8500166927464983, 0.7295969935745872, 0.0, 0.14595342486060092, 0.6538197582056104, 0.0, 0.22717440747750223, 0.04771157630451815, 0.25226001406560156, 1.0499724030381463, 0.13310095000982056, 0.7105048591814368, 0.02210206272724872, 0.09242386542951993, 1.251605745311482, 0.02351060501478775, 0.008800791146786727, 0.0, 0.0, 1.344588888013559, 0.03396293023003868, 0.0, 5.14787175564293e-05, 0.002810642744659784, 0.07680425289318715, 0.05339329103066387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14461614595331096, 0.0, 0.06659067693962582, 0.0, 0.030509111908932136, 0.9328354017043985, 0.0, 0.05966814718860449, 0.03223328469741762, 0.011564920470348555 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287876.898863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287876.898863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4715243412646961, 0.5284756587353039 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 562, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a 8-year GWP doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10574/gwp-to-double-in-8-years-before-2-years/)\n* [Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)" }, { "id": 734, "title": "Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-democrats-nominate-someone-from-generation-x-for-president-in-2020", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-25T13:32:33.283826Z", "published_at": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.498626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2020-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:42:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 146, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 734, "title": "Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?", "created_at": "2018-03-25T13:32:33.283826Z", "open_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-29T05:54:01.359647Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-29T05:54:01.359647Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-19T07:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-19T07:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-02-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According the [this article in The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/03/here-is-when-each-generation-begins-and-ends-according-to-facts/359589/), the U.S. Census Bureau defines the Baby Boomer generation as people born between 1946 and 1964.\n\nEven though that time bracket spans less than 18 years, a Baby Boomer has been included as a Presidential nominee on either the Democrat or Republican ticket every year since 1992. And unless President Trump leaves office early or decides not to run again in 2020, we’ll have a Boomer on the ticket again in two years.\n\nHere’s the list of Boomers:\n\n1992: Bill Clinton (D) \n1996: Bill Clinton (D) \n2000: Al Gore (D) and George W. Bush (R) \n2004: George W. Bush (R) [John Kerry (D) is technically a member of the Silent Generation, since he was born in 1943.] \n2008: Barack Obama (D) --- yes, Obama is a Boomer, since he was born in 1961. \n2012: Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R) \n2016: Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) \n2020: Donald Trump (R) ← likely \n\nGen-Xers – dubbed “America’s neglected ‘middle child’” by [Pew Research](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/05/generation-x-americas-neglected-middle-child/) — seem left out in the cold, at least politically speaking. \n\nAlthough only a VP nominee, Sarah Palin came close to representing Gen X. Born in February 1964, she [missed the Gen X cutoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) by less than a year.\n\nPaul Ryan, by contrast, DID get the nod as the [first Gen Xer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan) to be nominated by either party for VP or President. Born in 1970, he qualified.\n\nGen Xers are ascending in other nations. Emmanuel Macron, for instance, won a stunning victory in 2017 to become the [leader of France](http://abcnews.go.com/International/frances-president/story?id=47273083).\n\nWith these realities in place, what’s going to happen to the Dems in 2020?\n\nEarly surveys have [Joe Biden](http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/369555-poll-biden-holds-double-digit-lead-over-field-of-2020-dem-presidential) and Bernie Sanders—both members of the Silent Generation (before the Boomers!)—leading early polls.\n\n*** Will the Dems start a new tradition and nominate a Gen Xer for President the next go around?***\n\nQuestion resolve positive if the 2020 US Democratic Presidential nominee is born between 1965 and 1984, inclusive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1580527244.317228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { 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717, "title": "Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17?", "created_at": "2018-03-20T20:57:44.244755Z", "open_time": "2018-03-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-21T17:19:58.220424Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-21T17:19:58.220424Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T22:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T22:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-04-10T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-04-03T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-04-03T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Facebook has been embroiled in mounting controversy concerning its role in the 2016 US election. Beyond widespread reports of [Russian disinformation campaigns](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/facebook-alex-stamos.html), more recently it has come to light that Cambridge Analytica, a key part of the Trump campaign, [harvested large amount of user data from Facebook in violation of Facebook's rules for its use.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/03/19/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-cambridge-analytica-facebook-debacle/?utm_term=.96ad1d7b21f5)\n\nPolitical consternation over Facebook's conduct has been building in the US elsewhere, with [some calling for Zuckerberg to testify before congress.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-senator-calls-on-mark-zuckerberg-to-testify-before-congress/) \n\n*** Will Zuckerberg in fact appear before either the US house or Senate prior to April 17? ***\n\nResolution is positive if Zuckerberg enters either chamber of congress, whether he appears voluntarily or involuntarily, and whether or not he says anything of substance. 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 710, "title": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?", "created_at": "2018-03-19T22:32:07.156514Z", "open_time": "2018-03-31T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-04-01T07:36:10.796003Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-04-01T07:36:10.796003Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-09T17:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-09T17:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-09T17:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html). See related [news item](/news/2018/03/29/questions-from-the-iarpa-forecasting-competition/).*\n\n[Articles 4 and 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_4) of the North Atlantic Treaty (underlying NATO) describe the conditions under which NATO should either \"consult,\" or consider itself attacked, upon attack on a member country.\n\nArticle 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (<a href = \"http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/07/economist-explains-21\"target=\"_blank\">The Economist</a>, <a href = \"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_107711.htm\"target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>, \n <a href = \"http://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5/24626653.html\"target=\"_blank\">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a>, <a href = \"https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm\"target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (<a href = \"http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm\"target=\"_blank\">NATO</a>). NATO has said a cyber attack could trigger Article 5 in the same way as a conventional military assault (<a href = \"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/28/nato-assisting-ukrainian-cyber-defences-ransom-ware-attack-cripples/\"target=\"_blank\">The Telegraph</a>).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1536341031.028645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1536341031.028645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.044779271761057844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.842605955197051, 0.43363161626635355, 1.1400022688266476, 0.4479591381668936, 0.6309562844970003, 1.2759265543517144, 0.05393844466951995, 0.25098027806936346, 0.6951093823623552, 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "One of the most important projects of the Michel Temer's presidency of Brazil is approving a [Social Security Reform.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-pension/brazils-temer-unveils-pension-reform-sets-retirement-age-at-65-idUSKBN13U1VT)\n\nThe reform is unpopular, and according to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/12/11/brazils-social-security-reform-set-to-fail-again/#6e8dbf94a7f9) \"there have been doubts on whether it will be implemented\".\n\nIt has to be taken in consideration that, in the context of the current federal intervention, that \"Under the Constitution, Brazilian lawmakers are barred from making broad legal changes during a military intervention imposed by decree.\" ([here](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/world/americas/brazil-rio-military-security.html) noted by NYT)\n\nThe Temer government [possibly plans lift up the intervention for the time need to vote the reform.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-security/brazil-army-ordered-to-take-over-security-in-violent-rio-de-janeiro-idUSKCN1G00WP)\n\nSo the question is: \n\n***Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved by the end of 2018 or the end of Temer's presidency (whichever comes first)?***\n\nResolution is positive if a bill reforming Brazilian social 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"description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\n\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\n\n> The \\[Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\n\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\n\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\n\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma.\n\nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\n\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/):\n\n> A generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\n\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per Space.com:\n\n> It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to January 1, 2030. Any craft would qualify (such as [Venera 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_13)) and the craft need not have operational systems inside the Venetian atmosphere to resolve positively. Credible reports by space agencies such as [NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA) or [ESA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency) will qualify as a resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 686, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762987566.115519, "end_time": 1764162097.858239, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762987566.115519, "end_time": 1764162097.858239, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36512184870288167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6601038927639864, 0.006539317516958054, 0.6294489901739557, 0.24453667527443898, 5.276343591551028e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2364705093025905e-06, 1.59077792304253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006985349566254101, 0.10131294355339865, 0.8238537380961979, 0.039467334152321044, 0.0, 1.9865886585413547e-07, 1.3034151475483757, 3.0033351988330663, 2.711029692114479e-05, 0.15648312661133837, 0.0, 0.7130528158938166, 0.23503636179637197, 3.5142185398261762e-06, 0.036268717846837946, 0.011459762803758461, 0.0, 2.8564391054937515, 0.0, 0.0005004935437827643, 1.1968201532773386, 0.7315754868674081, 2.726309197035394, 1.0467258670229844, 0.1664627184159121, 0.5791397554727029, 0.04608048495311934, 1.2806638059317728, 0.34008000606819855, 0.9166111003910802, 0.0006286073290711995, 0.30720089159941616, 0.05711177238937432, 0.97000361723904, 0.38448540071492376, 0.7427430331010922, 0.315248478384503, 1.3940113519041353, 0.5488437777803171, 0.08548979816680653, 0.01936617014694299, 0.07234181383082892, 0.24415247046124205, 0.012873036600548591, 0.24478386940367325, 0.0, 0.18894634023562742, 0.38862614470658957, 0.0002786746811315877, 0.020207274027721347, 0.0, 0.004261057958223959, 0.11945686683533321, 2.104694472527037, 0.027844995563386134, 0.0, 0.0022708608453145913, 0.3462742763168398, 0.2553404434632315, 0.0, 0.0059881771651129605, 0.0, 0.32472302046698964, 0.015867679130379696, 0.034582189752653224, 0.0, 0.0004465858789476659, 0.006517230468873128, 0.0, 0.09437968354431515, 1.0846406563318365e-05, 0.06585054829835353, 0.0009139857356896434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5081235426332497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010700887622987455, 0.0, 0.0018681901330581886, 0.0, 0.004778518543683374 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288096.174201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 376, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288096.174201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 376, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6355402975705459, 0.36445970242945414 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 940, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\n\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\n\n> The \\[Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\n\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\n\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\n\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma.\n\nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\n\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/):\n\n> A generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\n\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per Space.com:\n\n> It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line." }, { "id": 685, "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", "short_title": "Penny gone by 2025?", "url_title": "Penny gone by 2025?", "slug": "penny-gone-by-2025", "author_id": 104272, "author_username": "AdamKosloff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-16T15:09:29.924494Z", "published_at": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.921038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:56:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 225, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 685, "title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?", "created_at": "2018-03-16T15:09:29.924494Z", "open_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-19T22:05:46.183791Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-19T22:05:46.183791Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T01:58:40.005178Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\n\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \n\nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\n\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\n\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\n\n> Coins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\n\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\n\n> Although it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\n\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? 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"continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\n\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \n\nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \n\n> This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\n\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\n\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\n\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\n\n> When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\n\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a person voluntarily holds their breath for more than 30 minutes, according to Guinness World Records or a body with similar standards and rigor.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697333.77988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697333.77988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.049561315080932665 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.996006768110584, 5.176778828482676, 2.5521810492013963, 0.5382103899549713, 0.13851821694691083, 1.2967474442659157, 0.6182740346084251, 0.16401245770453815, 0.6367324277603905, 0.028132191776221265, 1.1869879004513462, 0.0013916782388627726, 0.05010508827157392, 0.18481160457152765, 0.14773171370199928, 0.37694033063702603, 3.1901463567236907e-06, 0.2594763390496014, 0.0008769809026589727, 0.11778444347837727, 0.06202283314250621, 2.077119691824151e-05, 0.044215854887232404, 0.00043654377100425866, 0.046245733360066044, 0.18539719191892232, 0.0003407469860394805, 0.00870512097263064, 4.412007664451375e-05, 0.0, 0.12516324633674059, 0.004059743730699758, 0.04231886083777505, 0.08250535261847933, 0.0, 0.3537235785696228, 0.0033317662654977387, 0.13289742444658115, 0.024827354296808803, 0.022213443320103013, 0.36104014153673564, 0.00011525167037245907, 0.002898706069121246, 0.010687966803612977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007129736167464233, 0.0, 0.01851736580033668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048331204146681905, 7.95473460415628e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01980344525801095, 0.003651817892825281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002427497701647464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013067605828360388, 0.0, 0.0011457206353775822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003896046938512804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019046516170776288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007441658119580026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052761610442035395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11930144602270404 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.91034079158601, "peer_score": 27.533734631793216, "coverage": 0.9999959319277127, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999959319277127, "spot_peer_score": 54.072019843286164, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 75.91034079158601, "peer_archived_score": 27.533734631793216, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 54.072019843286164, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288084.212308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288084.212308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 203, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974699721961218, 0.0025300278038781813 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 460, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\n\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \n\nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \n\n> This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\n\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\n\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\n\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\n\n> When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\n\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)" }, { "id": 677, "title": "Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trump-and-kim-jong-un-actually-meet", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-09T18:50:36.786016Z", "published_at": "2018-03-09T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.387339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-09T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-06-12T01:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-06-12T01:44:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 239, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2016, Republicans controlled the house of representatives with 241 seats versus democrat's 194. No third party candidates won any seats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2010, under the Obama administration. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during their first term, and current polling on a national generic ballot indicates that Democrats have an [6-8 percentage point lead](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo) over Republicans.\n\nIf Democrats win 218 seats or more in 2018, they will have secured a majority in the house. ***Will that happen?***\n\n\n435 seats will be contested on November 6th, except for Louisiana, whose general election occurs on December 8th. The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give control to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2019 and elects a Speaker of the House.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541387891.910231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541387891.910231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7024682556412695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.385688521187467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.306505971806641e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004876096931450825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4830438612523698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005467230053624408, 0.0, 0.037464714711063316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039336804802494685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Materials scientists do some astonishing work. Behold [titanium foam](https://gizmodo.com/5-of-the-craziest-new-man-made-materials-893364032/1277311218), [aerogel](https://interestingengineering.com/9-interesting-materials-shape-future), a.k.a. \"frozen smoke\", and [multiferroics](https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/06/17/4-amazing-new-materials-that-science-doesnt-quite-know-what-to-do-with-yet/#4ee5f5b86a10).\n\nBut no material is cooler than [tantalum hafnium carbide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tantalum_hafnium_carbide). To be more precise, no other material currently engineered can stay \"cool\" (that is, solid) at temperatures approaching 4200 K. For reference, that's about 2/3rds the temperature of the sun's surface!\n\nCan engineers do better, though? [Researchers at Brown University say:](https://www.asminternational.org/web/cmdnetwork/home/-/journal_content/56/10180/25655039/NEWS). \n\n> new calculations suggest that an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon — HfN0.38C0.51 — is a promising candidate to set a new mark.\n\n*** Will this new material – or some other compound – break (or should we say \"melt\") the melting point record by 2021? ***\n\nResult is positive if a paper appears in a trusted, peer reviewed journal confirming the creation of a substance with a higher melting point than 4300 K by 2021. 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