Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 38405, "title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "slug": "will-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-have-revenue-of-at-least-100b-in-2027", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T20:33:37.112162Z", "published_at": "2025-07-07T11:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T22:19:39.503783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:49.421069Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37679, "title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T20:33:37.112633Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n\nSection 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n\n> We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n\n| | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n| ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n| Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n| Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n| Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n| Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n\n***\n\nAI 2027 notes some key factors:\n\n* *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n* *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n* *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n\n***\n\nSee also:\n\nFutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of OpenAI, DeepMind or Anthropic have an annualised revenue of at least \\$100 billion in 2027.", "fine_print": "For private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepMind as of June 2025), Metaculus will use the best available information and estimates at the time to determine if the \\$100 billion revenue criterion has been met and might delay resolution until July 2028.\n\nFor public companies, in the event any of the listed companies go public, official financial reporting will be used to resolve the question (e.g., UK Companies House or relevant reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)).\n\nShould all three companies cease to exist this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752272368.88737, "end_time": 1758394461.263, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752272368.88737, "end_time": 1758394461.263, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5255045510959531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8431287456062874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n\nSection 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n\n> We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n\n| | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n| ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n| Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n| Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n| Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n| Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n\n***\n\nAI 2027 notes some key factors:\n\n* *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n* *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n* *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n\n***\n\nSee also:\n\nFutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)" }, { "id": 38404, "title": "Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?", "short_title": "By July 15, 2025 will PVV be highest polling party in Netherlands by at 5+%", "url_title": "By July 15, 2025 will PVV be highest polling party in Netherlands by at 5+%", "slug": "by-july-15-2025-will-pvv-be-highest-polling-party-in-netherlands-by-at-5", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T19:36:58.539637Z", "published_at": "2025-06-03T20:15:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T13:24:33.509827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-03T20:16:26.579249Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37678, "title": "Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T19:36:58.540122Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wilders throws Dutch politics into turmoil with new elections now on the horizon](https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-wilders-coalition-withdraws-685e5ebe6b88313a0af68365fe741cd3)\n\n> THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Populist far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders plunged Dutch politics into turmoil Tuesday by withdrawing his party’s ministers from the ruling coalition in a dispute over a crackdown on migration. The remaining ministers will run a caretaker administration until new elections can be organized.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> Wilders’ decision comes days after conservative Karol Nawrocki was announced the winner of Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, a victory that suggests that Poland will likely take a more populist and nationalist path under its new president, who was backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.\n\n> It is not the first time Wilders has turned his back on power. He pledged his support to a minority government led by former Prime Minister Mark Rutte in 2010, but walked away less than two years later after a dispute about government austerity measures.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the Party for Freedom (PVV) is #1 in the polling averages, exceeding the 2nd place by 5 or more percentage points [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/netherlands/), after June 5, 2025 and before July 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "* The \"Smooth\" view of Politico's Poll of Polls for the Netherlands will be used.\n* The dates refer to the dates shown on the graph, and the question will resolve when July 15, 2025, or a later date is shown on the graph and the resolution sources is accessed by Metaculus.", "post_id": 38404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752240263.104275, "end_time": 1752712736.507561, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752240263.104275, "end_time": 1752712736.507561, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0727280196307681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.33940648712497556, 1.0338850939481596, 0.8569744876588683, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3036409629621556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wilders throws Dutch politics into turmoil with new elections now on the horizon](https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-wilders-coalition-withdraws-685e5ebe6b88313a0af68365fe741cd3)\n\n> THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Populist far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders plunged Dutch politics into turmoil Tuesday by withdrawing his party’s ministers from the ruling coalition in a dispute over a crackdown on migration. The remaining ministers will run a caretaker administration until new elections can be organized.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> Wilders’ decision comes days after conservative Karol Nawrocki was announced the winner of Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, a victory that suggests that Poland will likely take a more populist and nationalist path under its new president, who was backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.\n\n> It is not the first time Wilders has turned his back on power. He pledged his support to a minority government led by former Prime Minister Mark Rutte in 2010, but walked away less than two years later after a dispute about government austerity measures." }, { "id": 38403, "title": "Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "short_title": "AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "url_title": "AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "slug": "ai-authored-paper-published-at-neurips-icml-or-iclr-before-2028", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:46:50.191958Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T17:54:57.881779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:35.487511Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37677, "title": "Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:46:50.192323Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In their [timelines forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast), Eli Lifland, Nikola Jurkovic, and [3 professional forecasters from FutureSearch](http://futuresearch.ai/ai-2027) estimate when a superhuman coder will first be developed: \n\n| Eli's forecast (80% CI) | Nikola’s forecast (80% CI) | FutureSearch aggregate (80% CI) |\n| ----------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------- |\n| 2030 (2026 to >2050) | 2028 (2026 to 2040) | 2033 (2027 to >2050) |\n\nThen, in their [takeoff forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast), they forecast on how long it would take to develop a superhuman AI researcher, conditional on the superhuman coder being developed in March 2027. The AI 2027 team put this at 0.3 years (15% 0 years, 90th percentile 0.95 years), while the FutureSearch aggregate (n = 4) estimates it at: 0.55 years (0, 2.1).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, a paper has been published in one of the following conferences: \n\n* Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)\n* International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)\n* International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)\n\nwith an AI as one of the authors. \n\nThis will also resolve as **Yes** if the AI is not a credited author, but the authors of the paper state that an AI performed at least 40% of the work required to produce the paper or make an equivalent statement in the judgement of Metaculus.", "fine_print": "Statements that the AI did approximately half of the work or more will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nA statement that the AI wrote most of the code or the text will not suffice. The AI must have contributed some of the cognitive labor required when producing a paper, in the judgement of Metaculus, such as coming up with some of the ideas, designing the experiments, etc.", "post_id": 38403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752256487.035149, "end_time": 1753696799.999, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.874 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752256487.035149, "end_time": 1753696799.999, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.874 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6944400170851149 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10929414960313527, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801381346429341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.05323093933194112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.6521025769340254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 1.8632816530385345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 1.548262025737305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In their [timelines forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast), Eli Lifland, Nikola Jurkovic, and [3 professional forecasters from FutureSearch](http://futuresearch.ai/ai-2027) estimate when a superhuman coder will first be developed: \n\n| Eli's forecast (80% CI) | Nikola’s forecast (80% CI) | FutureSearch aggregate (80% CI) |\n| ----------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------- |\n| 2030 (2026 to >2050) | 2028 (2026 to 2040) | 2033 (2027 to >2050) |\n\nThen, in their [takeoff forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast), they forecast on how long it would take to develop a superhuman AI researcher, conditional on the superhuman coder being developed in March 2027. The AI 2027 team put this at 0.3 years (15% 0 years, 90th percentile 0.95 years), while the FutureSearch aggregate (n = 4) estimates it at: 0.55 years (0, 2.1)." }, { "id": 38400, "title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-publicly-criticize-amy-coney-barrett-before-july-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:45:06.996820Z", "published_at": "2025-06-03T20:12:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T00:44:25.311860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-03T20:13:07.808463Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37674, "title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:45:06.997309Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Trump privately complains about Amy Coney Barrett and other Supreme Court justices he nominated](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/politics/amy-coney-barrett-justice-trump)\n\n> CNN — President Donald Trump has privately complained that the Supreme Court justices he appointed have not sufficiently stood behind his agenda, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations. But he has directed particular ire at Justice Amy Coney Barrett, his most recent appointee, one of the sources said.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> While the president has privately expressed his displeasure with Barrett, a source close to Trump insists he does not want to attack her publicly. In March, after Barrett voted against Trump’s plan to cut foreign aid, Trump declined to criticize her publicly, telling reporters at the time, “She’s a very good woman. She’s very smart, and I don’t know about people attacking her, I really don’t know.”\n\n> “He does truly respect the Supreme Court, so he doesn’t want to torch any of his appointees,” one senior White House official told CNN. “He’s called on them as a group to rein in the lower courts and do the right thing, but has intentionally not attacked any of the Justices by name.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 15, 2025, Donald Trump publicly criticizes Amy Coney Barrett. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with Barrett.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will consult media characterizations of Trump's comments on Barrett to aid in determining if criticism has occurred. Metaculus will assess multiple sources of various political leanings to aid in limiting bias in assessing whether Trump has publicly criticized Barrett.\n\n* A criticism must be public to count; indirect reports, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n* If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three Admins will vote on how the question should resolve, and may include resolving the question as **ambiguous**.\n\nAn example of public criticism that would count for purposes of this question would be Donald Trump's [post](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114471750357100883) on Truth Social about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell:\n\n> “Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!", "post_id": 38400, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752281054.592493, "end_time": 1752627334.488902, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752281054.592493, "end_time": 1752627334.488902, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.015090019184609676 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.842169825233846, 1.1503096885294173, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trump privately complains about Amy Coney Barrett and other Supreme Court justices he nominated](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/politics/amy-coney-barrett-justice-trump)\n\n> CNN — President Donald Trump has privately complained that the Supreme Court justices he appointed have not sufficiently stood behind his agenda, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations. But he has directed particular ire at Justice Amy Coney Barrett, his most recent appointee, one of the sources said.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> While the president has privately expressed his displeasure with Barrett, a source close to Trump insists he does not want to attack her publicly. In March, after Barrett voted against Trump’s plan to cut foreign aid, Trump declined to criticize her publicly, telling reporters at the time, “She’s a very good woman. She’s very smart, and I don’t know about people attacking her, I really don’t know.”\n\n> “He does truly respect the Supreme Court, so he doesn’t want to torch any of his appointees,” one senior White House official told CNN. “He’s called on them as a group to rein in the lower courts and do the right thing, but has intentionally not attacked any of the Justices by name.”" }, { "id": 38399, "title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "short_title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "url_title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "slug": "will-the-yellowstones-supervolcano-erupt-before-2100", "author_id": 273349, "author_username": "Goldengram", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T15:31:53.834239Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T22:52:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-04T01:13:52.088949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T22:53:21.482126Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T22:52:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37673, "title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T15:31:53.835039Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T22:52:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T22:52:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Yellowstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)'s last \"supereruption\" happened 630,000 years ago. The supervolcano has a rough eruption cycle of 600,000 - 800,000 years and [new](https://www.usgs.gov/news/state-news-release/new-study-reveals-insights-yellowstone-volcanic-systems-hidden-magma) [studies](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/msa/elements/article-abstract/4/1/35/137767/Monitoring-a-Supervolcano-in-Repose-Heat-and) [show](https://cmes.utah.edu/news/deeperyellowstonemagma.php) more magma than previously estimated, increasing concerns. However, while the system is currently geologically active, it shows [no signs](https://www.nsf.gov/news/will-yellowstone-supervolcano-erupt-our-lifetime) of imminent eruption. NASA has [proposed](https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-a-3-5bn-plan-to-save-the-planet-from-the-yellowstone-supervolcano) a \\$3.5 billion plan to cool it by extracting heat, but deep drilling could potentially disturb the caldera. A future eruption would have catastrophic global consequences on humanity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Yellowstone volcano erupts before January 1, 2100.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751591621.734703, "end_time": 1985115349.045845, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751591621.734703, "end_time": 1985115349.045845, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.007481146657342055 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0692257732950634, 1.3158459119290118, 1.0941681173036915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Yellowstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)'s last \"supereruption\" happened 630,000 years ago. The supervolcano has a rough eruption cycle of 600,000 - 800,000 years and [new](https://www.usgs.gov/news/state-news-release/new-study-reveals-insights-yellowstone-volcanic-systems-hidden-magma) [studies](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/msa/elements/article-abstract/4/1/35/137767/Monitoring-a-Supervolcano-in-Repose-Heat-and) [show](https://cmes.utah.edu/news/deeperyellowstonemagma.php) more magma than previously estimated, increasing concerns. However, while the system is currently geologically active, it shows [no signs](https://www.nsf.gov/news/will-yellowstone-supervolcano-erupt-our-lifetime) of imminent eruption. NASA has [proposed](https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-a-3-5bn-plan-to-save-the-planet-from-the-yellowstone-supervolcano) a \\$3.5 billion plan to cool it by extracting heat, but deep drilling could potentially disturb the caldera. 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Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to July 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 38331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749136860.205633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749136860.205633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8734698567099651 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0991598257291094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13317800265805058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.14443339828080168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6670118133980978, 0.7527531912644363, 0.7282180562393341, 0.10687792566038573, 1.6701403139738773, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1645139018439323, 0.0, 0.7387293939362193, 0.0, 0.0, 1.413852562666779, 0.7001862823662643, 1.6845548321200243, 0.3429179627815088, 0.17672342147353706, 2.764982897387201, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0919202996362008, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.49246599597366, "peer_score": 2.331853575683555, "coverage": 0.9873792715205086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873792715205086, "spot_peer_score": 2.3492656925533906, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 78.49246599597366, "peer_archived_score": 2.331853575683555, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3492656925533906, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). 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