Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6699, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 41490, "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "url_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "slug": "vivek-ramaswamy-wins-ohio-governorship-in-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T13:08:56.093562Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T05:03:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T02:14:56.001153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T05:04:17.256730Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-10T05:03:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41219, "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T13:08:56.093997Z", "open_time": "2026-01-10T05:03:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-14T05:03:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-14T05:03:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.\n\nOnce considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold [a government trifecta and a triplex](https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas_and_triplexes), and incumbent governor DeWine was re-elected in 2022 by a 25-point margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 points, the widest margin of victory for any presidential nominee in the state since 1984. \n\n[Vivek Ramaswamy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy?useskin=vector), born August 9, 1985, is an American billionaire entrepreneur and politician who was a biotechnology executive before running in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He withdrew from the race after finishing 4th in the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses) and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy was thereafter appointed by Trump to be a leader of the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, though [he left the effort days into Trump's term](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/vivek-ramaswamy-quits-doge-elon-musk), apparently at Musk's behest.\n\nRamaswamy [announced in February 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86pwpy7vx6o) that he would seek the office of Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election, and was [endorsed by Trump ](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114062254652077484) on the same day. In May 2025, he was [endorsed by the Republican Party of Ohio.](https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-98be2b8f1a94e99f14b370e145e2939c)\n\nHowever, despite these endorsements and the strength of the Republican Party in the state in recent years, recent [polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election#General_election) has found the race very close, with Ramaswamy only marginally leading potential Democratic nominee Amy Acton. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election, according to either certified results provided by state election officials, or a consensus of credible media reports.", "fine_print": "If Vivek Ramaswamy withdraws from the race and due to legal timing can no longer re-enter and appear on the ballot, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nIn the event of a disputed result, the winner of the election will be considered to be the person who is first sworn in as governor following the election, regardless of any court rulings.", "short_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "post_id": 41490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768961685.661307, "end_time": 1770702344.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768961685.661307, "end_time": 1770702344.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.598407892870889 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42306973344707377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16528349819318522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.945406816721863, 1.0812203149046484, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 1.4161622869304282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8934965775142893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.\n\nOnce considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold [a government trifecta and a triplex](https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas_and_triplexes), and incumbent governor DeWine was re-elected in 2022 by a 25-point margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 points, the widest margin of victory for any presidential nominee in the state since 1984. \n\n[Vivek Ramaswamy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy?useskin=vector), born August 9, 1985, is an American billionaire entrepreneur and politician who was a biotechnology executive before running in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He withdrew from the race after finishing 4th in the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses) and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy was thereafter appointed by Trump to be a leader of the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, though [he left the effort days into Trump's term](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/vivek-ramaswamy-quits-doge-elon-musk), apparently at Musk's behest.\n\nRamaswamy [announced in February 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86pwpy7vx6o) that he would seek the office of Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election, and was [endorsed by Trump ](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114062254652077484) on the same day. In May 2025, he was [endorsed by the Republican Party of Ohio.](https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-98be2b8f1a94e99f14b370e145e2939c)\n\nHowever, despite these endorsements and the strength of the Republican Party in the state in recent years, recent [polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election#General_election) has found the race very close, with Ramaswamy only marginally leading potential Democratic nominee Amy Acton. " }, { "id": 41489, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-venezuela-announce-a-presidential-election-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T12:48:39.084945Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T14:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T09:40:43.697891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T14:03:57.837188Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 41216, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T12:48:39.085282Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Venezuela officially announces a new presidential election. In order to count, the announcement must be made by a person or entity with the legal authority to do so, the announcement must name a specific election date, and voting must take place before January 1, 2027. ", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769420433.389848, "end_time": 1769897052.366, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769420433.389848, "end_time": 1769897052.366, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23776353343892365 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1802973886072212, 0.0, 0.6887776145682651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5591571135124749, 0.6984449301569673, 1.4050776483619933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14714285446656628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 41485, "title": "Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?", "short_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "url_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "slug": "2nd-us-intervention-in-venezuela-by-april-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T01:56:22.708249Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.626948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T16:53:31.962247Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 279, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41209, "title": "Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T01:56:22.708620Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-08T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n\nIn the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n* For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n* The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n* The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "post_id": 41485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769444202.039257, "end_time": 1769464904.572, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769444202.039257, "end_time": 1769464904.572, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23038373811690743 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1168889489660039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699944998687039, 0.0, 0.4778766437583709, 0.7434025188363531, 0.10230429462177482, 0.08085160899546422, 0.5388139688871707, 1.0572021727083478, 0.6406769915486695, 0.6386512113992163, 0.6155523654822892, 0.24437703593878846, 1.7926664361901241, 0.8661892537128015, 0.015776941084022174, 1.7807281572481164, 0.4185175886148805, 2.0392817506988, 1.296855187763494, 1.0261561799487864, 0.021210304241118215, 0.39766505730751917, 1.7746785999830377, 0.03876275253143132, 0.0315254647767811, 0.12151627889877918, 0.0, 0.68685541022949, 0.43520712050482135, 0.00019565411376347476, 1.8310663290378848, 0.0, 0.9266625374172239, 0.0, 1.4181448441390412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10132060367526793, 0.06830785259659163, 0.716020127533864, 0.08561953498007206, 0.0002371828785693662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00173595017323778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12177026267621506, 0.0, 0.17147888327140665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011673478372489916, 0.0, 0.002760854613607566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07797048396146408, 0.0, 0.0002855892061132397, 0.002944159148216387, 0.8955120173461405, 0.004116009440742325, 0.0, 0.00040678335882332514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005426233585474835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003417854190510012, 0.0, 1.382970207852348e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07678098800123112 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 945, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n\nIn the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"" }, { "id": 41481, "title": "Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?", "short_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "url_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "slug": "joe-bidens-autopen-orders-declared-null-and-void-before-2026-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:27.326678Z", "published_at": "2026-01-08T04:02:54Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T00:57:47.734277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-08T04:04:12.780097Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-09T04:02:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41205, "title": "Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:27.327068Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T04:02:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-13T04:02:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-13T04:02:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?*\n\nAn [<u>autopen</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/29/what-is-an-autopen-and-why-cant-trump-stop-talking-about-it) is a mechanical device historically used by U.S. presidents to replicate signatures on official documents when the president is unavailable to sign each individually. [<u>Presidential autopens have been used across multiple administrations to sign executive orders</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/17/nx-s1-5330709/autopen-biden-pardon-void), proclamations, and other official acts, and longstanding legal guidance indicates that a president does not need to physically sign a document themselves for it to be valid so long as the signature reflects the president’s authorization.\n\nIn late 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media that all executive orders, pardons, and other actions signed using an autopen under Joe Biden’s administration were [<u>“null and void” and “of no further force or effect.”</u>](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/34128?) The claim was echoed by Republican lawmakers and a [<u>House Oversight Committee report</u>](https://news.ssbcrack.com/house-oversight-committee-urges-doj-investigation-into-bidens-autopen-usage-questions-legitimacy-of-executive-actions/) asserting that Biden’s alleged cognitive decline and use of the autopen could undermine the legitimacy of his actions.\n\nLegal experts and nonpartisan fact-checkers have countered these claims, noting there is [<u>no constitutional mechanism for one president to unilaterally declare another president’s actions void simply because an autopen was used</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-biden-pardons-are-void-because-he-used-an-autopen). The Constitution and longstanding practice empower the president to [<u>issue pardons</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46179) and [<u>take executive actions</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-1/ALDE_00000243/); courts have generally held that mechanical signatures are valid if the underlying decision was the president’s.\n\nAs of late 2025, [<u>Republican calls for investigations or legal reviews</u>](https://www.wbbjtv.com/2025/10/28/republicans-send-biden-autopen-report-to-the-justice-department-urging-further-investigation/) by the Department of Justice and other officials have not resulted in any judicial rulings declaring Biden’s autopen-signed orders invalid. Whether any such legal challenge will reach a court with jurisdiction to consider the constitutional validity of these actions — and whether a court would rule they are “null and void” — remains unresolved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on or before November 4, 2026:\n\nA federal district or appellate court issues a final ruling that at least one specific executive action signed by Joe Biden using an autopen are legally invalid, such that they are formally declared null and void under law.", "fine_print": "If the ruling is subject to appeal, this question will wait until November 4, 2026 to resolve. \n\nIf the ruling is stayed or reversed, this question will not resolved based upon it.", "short_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "post_id": 41481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768784256.856208, "end_time": 1770641139.459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768784256.856208, "end_time": 1770641139.459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06359150134601346 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.8245534804834481, 0.362543115534516, 0.862882435577901, 0.29286789626133847, 0.6583274883502067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?*\n\nAn [<u>autopen</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/29/what-is-an-autopen-and-why-cant-trump-stop-talking-about-it) is a mechanical device historically used by U.S. presidents to replicate signatures on official documents when the president is unavailable to sign each individually. [<u>Presidential autopens have been used across multiple administrations to sign executive orders</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/17/nx-s1-5330709/autopen-biden-pardon-void), proclamations, and other official acts, and longstanding legal guidance indicates that a president does not need to physically sign a document themselves for it to be valid so long as the signature reflects the president’s authorization.\n\nIn late 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media that all executive orders, pardons, and other actions signed using an autopen under Joe Biden’s administration were [<u>“null and void” and “of no further force or effect.”</u>](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/34128?) The claim was echoed by Republican lawmakers and a [<u>House Oversight Committee report</u>](https://news.ssbcrack.com/house-oversight-committee-urges-doj-investigation-into-bidens-autopen-usage-questions-legitimacy-of-executive-actions/) asserting that Biden’s alleged cognitive decline and use of the autopen could undermine the legitimacy of his actions.\n\nLegal experts and nonpartisan fact-checkers have countered these claims, noting there is [<u>no constitutional mechanism for one president to unilaterally declare another president’s actions void simply because an autopen was used</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-biden-pardons-are-void-because-he-used-an-autopen). The Constitution and longstanding practice empower the president to [<u>issue pardons</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46179) and [<u>take executive actions</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-1/ALDE_00000243/); courts have generally held that mechanical signatures are valid if the underlying decision was the president’s.\n\nAs of late 2025, [<u>Republican calls for investigations or legal reviews</u>](https://www.wbbjtv.com/2025/10/28/republicans-send-biden-autopen-report-to-the-justice-department-urging-further-investigation/) by the Department of Justice and other officials have not resulted in any judicial rulings declaring Biden’s autopen-signed orders invalid. Whether any such legal challenge will reach a court with jurisdiction to consider the constitutional validity of these actions — and whether a court would rule they are “null and void” — remains unresolved." }, { "id": 41480, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "slug": "will-scotus-hold-race-conscious-districting-unconstitutional", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:29:42.934607Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T02:09:54Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-25T05:29:56.775211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T02:11:20.048513Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-08T02:09:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:17:48.040302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:17:48.040302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41204, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:29:42.935073Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T02:09:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T02:09:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T02:09:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the U.S. Supreme Court overturn provisions of the Voting Rights Act as part of Louisiana v. Callais?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-Supreme-Court-overturn-provisions-in-the-Voting-Rights-Act-Louisiana-v-Callais)\n\nThe [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA)</u>](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act) is a foundational U.S. civil rights law designed to prevent racial discrimination in voting. [<u>Section 2 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/section-2-voting-rights-act) prohibits voting practices or districting plans that result in minority voters having less opportunity than others to elect representatives of their choice, regardless of the intent behind the law or map. Unlike the VRA’s preclearance regime, Section 2 applies nationwide and has remained the primary enforcement mechanism against discriminatory election maps following later court rulings. \n\nThe Supreme Court has narrowed portions of the VRA over the past decade. In [*<u>Shelby County v. Holder</u>*](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96) (2013), the Court invalidated the coverage formula that determined which jurisdictions were subject to federal preclearance, [<u>effectively suspending Section 5 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act). More recently, in [*<u>Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-1257_g204.pdf) (2021), the Court adopted a more restrictive framework for evaluating Section 2 claims related to voting rules, emphasizing state interests and historical practice. \n\nHowever, the Court appeared to reaffirm Section 2’s application to redistricting in [*<u>Allen v. Milligan</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf) (2023), holding that Alabama’s congressional map likely violated the VRA by failing to include an additional majority-Black district. The decision [<u>rejected arguments that Section 2 requires a race-neutral approach and reaffirmed longstanding precedent allowing race to be considered when remedying vote dilution.</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-act-persists-so-do-its-adversaries#:~:text=But%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20stepped,protections%20for%20voters%20of%20color.)\n\n[*<u>Louisiana v. Callais</u>*](https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/louisiana-v-callais/) stems from [<u>post-2020 census redistricting in Louisiana</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Louisiana_after_the_2020_census). After lower federal courts found that the state’s original congressional map likely violated Section 2 by containing only one majority-Black district despite the state's sizable Black population, Louisiana enacted a revised map creating a second such district. A group of voters then challenged the new map, arguing that it relied impermissibly on race and violated the Equal Protection Clause. The Supreme Court [<u>agreed to hear the case</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais/), placing the continued scope of Section 2 squarely before the Court.\n\n[<u>Legal analysts note that the case could clarify or significantly alter the balance between the VRA and constitutional limits on race-based districting</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/15/politics/voting-rights-act-supreme-court-takeaways). Depending on how broadly the Court rules, the decision could [<u>either reaffirm Section 2’s role in redistricting or substantially limit its future application nationwide</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/10/court-appears-ready-to-curtail-major-provision-of-the-voting-rights-act/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court's final merits decision in [*Louisiana v. Callais*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html) holds that race-conscious districting, even when done to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, is unconstitutional.\n\nThis question will resolve as No if the Supreme Court's decision upholds the challenged Louisiana map or otherwise resolves the case without holding that race-conscious districting is impermissible.\n\nIf the Supreme Court does not issue a merits decision in *Louisiana v. Callais* before January 1, 2027, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "post_id": 41480, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769212914.633891, "end_time": 1769817714.039, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769212914.633891, "end_time": 1769817714.039, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.4277101280882536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the U.S. Supreme Court overturn provisions of the Voting Rights Act as part of Louisiana v. Callais?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-Supreme-Court-overturn-provisions-in-the-Voting-Rights-Act-Louisiana-v-Callais)\n\nThe [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA)</u>](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act) is a foundational U.S. civil rights law designed to prevent racial discrimination in voting. [<u>Section 2 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/section-2-voting-rights-act) prohibits voting practices or districting plans that result in minority voters having less opportunity than others to elect representatives of their choice, regardless of the intent behind the law or map. Unlike the VRA’s preclearance regime, Section 2 applies nationwide and has remained the primary enforcement mechanism against discriminatory election maps following later court rulings. \n\nThe Supreme Court has narrowed portions of the VRA over the past decade. In [*<u>Shelby County v. Holder</u>*](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96) (2013), the Court invalidated the coverage formula that determined which jurisdictions were subject to federal preclearance, [<u>effectively suspending Section 5 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act). More recently, in [*<u>Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-1257_g204.pdf) (2021), the Court adopted a more restrictive framework for evaluating Section 2 claims related to voting rules, emphasizing state interests and historical practice. \n\nHowever, the Court appeared to reaffirm Section 2’s application to redistricting in [*<u>Allen v. Milligan</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf) (2023), holding that Alabama’s congressional map likely violated the VRA by failing to include an additional majority-Black district. The decision [<u>rejected arguments that Section 2 requires a race-neutral approach and reaffirmed longstanding precedent allowing race to be considered when remedying vote dilution.</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-act-persists-so-do-its-adversaries#:~:text=But%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20stepped,protections%20for%20voters%20of%20color.)\n\n[*<u>Louisiana v. Callais</u>*](https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/louisiana-v-callais/) stems from [<u>post-2020 census redistricting in Louisiana</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Louisiana_after_the_2020_census). After lower federal courts found that the state’s original congressional map likely violated Section 2 by containing only one majority-Black district despite the state's sizable Black population, Louisiana enacted a revised map creating a second such district. A group of voters then challenged the new map, arguing that it relied impermissibly on race and violated the Equal Protection Clause. The Supreme Court [<u>agreed to hear the case</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais/), placing the continued scope of Section 2 squarely before the Court.\n\n[<u>Legal analysts note that the case could clarify or significantly alter the balance between the VRA and constitutional limits on race-based districting</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/15/politics/voting-rights-act-supreme-court-takeaways). Depending on how broadly the Court rules, the decision could [<u>either reaffirm Section 2’s role in redistricting or substantially limit its future application nationwide</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/10/court-appears-ready-to-curtail-major-provision-of-the-voting-rights-act/)." }, { "id": 41478, "title": "Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?", "short_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "url_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "slug": "gold-rise-to-5000-or-more-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T16:25:20.731989Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T09:01:10Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T01:26:16.267984Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T09:01:25.800329Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-25T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T09:01:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41202, "title": "Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T16:25:20.732447Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T09:01:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T09:01:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T09:01:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-26T01:26:04.232139Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Gold is highly popular among precious metals as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a way of diversifying risk, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. [Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-price-silver-whats-behind-the-surge/) and during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty.\n\n[On 26 December 2025](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-i-invest-gold-prices-123542208.html), gold (GC=F) hit an all time high of \\$4,549.71 per ounce. \n\n> Gold ([GC=F](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F)) prices extended gains at the start of the year after ending 2025 with a 64% rise, the strongest annual performance since 1979, as investors bet on further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve... The metal has doubled in value from the \\$2,000 level it held two years ago. Since 2000, gold has outperformed global equities, delivering a return of more than 1,200%.\n\nMichael Hsueh, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, now thinks [gold prices could approach \\$5,000 during 2026](https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/gold-price). Whilst [a recent Financial Times survey](https://www.ft.com/content/a2b62f00-3174-4818-9a90-7489fc9be6d8) suggests gold is set to \"extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains\".\n\nAs [Reuters reported on January 5, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-surges-us-capture-venezuela-president-spurs-safe-haven-demand-2026-01-05/), current geopolitical risks may continue to affect the price of gold during 2026.\n\n> Gold rose to a one-week high and nearer its record peak on Monday as safe-haven demand spurred by U.S. strikes in Venezuela added to bullion's appeal, already fuelled by geopolitical tensions and rate cut bets.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, any time before January 1, 2027, the price of gold per troy ounce (GC=F) in U.S dollars is \\$5,000.00 or more, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/).", "fine_print": "The price of gold per troy ounce (GC=F) only has to reach \\$5,000.00 or more at any point in time (e.g. an intraday trading price high) and not exclusively at an open or close price for this question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "post_id": 41478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769363774.339604, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.991 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769363774.339604, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.991 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.009000000000000008, 0.991 ], "means": [ 0.9559028085744755 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.03105063701600968, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.9020632681798781, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 4.625055864782629 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.239212327127431, "peer_score": 0.4131988879707212, "coverage": 0.051764097621212604, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989935960586881, "spot_peer_score": 4.424960902857539, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 3.239212327127431, "peer_archived_score": 0.4131988879707212, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.424960902857539, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gold is highly popular among precious metals as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a way of diversifying risk, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. [Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-price-silver-whats-behind-the-surge/) and during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty.\n\n[On 26 December 2025](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-i-invest-gold-prices-123542208.html), gold (GC=F) hit an all time high of \\$4,549.71 per ounce. \n\n> Gold ([GC=F](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F)) prices extended gains at the start of the year after ending 2025 with a 64% rise, the strongest annual performance since 1979, as investors bet on further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve... The metal has doubled in value from the \\$2,000 level it held two years ago. Since 2000, gold has outperformed global equities, delivering a return of more than 1,200%.\n\nMichael Hsueh, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, now thinks [gold prices could approach \\$5,000 during 2026](https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/gold-price). Whilst [a recent Financial Times survey](https://www.ft.com/content/a2b62f00-3174-4818-9a90-7489fc9be6d8) suggests gold is set to \"extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains\".\n\nAs [Reuters reported on January 5, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-surges-us-capture-venezuela-president-spurs-safe-haven-demand-2026-01-05/), current geopolitical risks may continue to affect the price of gold during 2026.\n\n> Gold rose to a one-week high and nearer its record peak on Monday as safe-haven demand spurred by U.S. strikes in Venezuela added to bullion's appeal, already fuelled by geopolitical tensions and rate cut bets." }, { "id": 41462, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?", "short_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "url_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "slug": "khamenei-cease-to-be-irans-supreme-leader-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-04T15:40:03.669033Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T06:48:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-25T04:12:19.578255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T06:49:43.378889Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-08T06:48:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41187, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-04T15:40:03.669392Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T06:48:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T06:48:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T06:48:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nIdentified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n\nOn December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\n[Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n\n> U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n\nOn January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n\n> that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n\n> While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026 Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be Supreme Leader or he must cease to exercise the powers of Supreme Leader against his will.\n\nEvents including the government losing control over the country or being held captive by an opposing group will qualify, while withdrawal from duties, such as due to health issues, will not be sufficient.", "short_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "post_id": 41462, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769314329.088986, "end_time": 1769561939.794, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769314329.088986, "end_time": 1769561939.794, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6022521173201009 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09367015976550289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10677225309695815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.14435670794403951, 0.005228157946939775, 0.032507148338583335, 0.0, 0.06070567431515629, 0.0006731217591434027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012792465124422179, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0822341435694502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786907671175604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10069385431168336, 0.0, 1.2090977629090334, 0.9440804922695755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40351233925798374, 0.024287392581415282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08434836204916665, 0.6737642594278841, 0.01010533010201989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5901780463086457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2542776093169868, 0.6541605783992803, 0.0, 0.2720962540814778, 0.40110212504477716, 0.35199989273001836, 1.4929297582831955, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1016713417079624, 0.23747616990092357, 0.7928301380282371, 0.0, 0.03914148754336097, 0.0, 0.6240114035586083, 0.5241767052936251, 0.19267892523477537, 0.0, 0.12436328158297608, 0.5191615675435731, 0.15332914221598168, 0.0, 0.046843471097372705, 0.0, 0.014326247536910926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006900644262869463, 0.0, 0.0045112856628413515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5522472134841501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9922578487228012 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nIdentified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n\nOn December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\n[Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n\n> U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n\nOn January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n\n> that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n\n> While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran." }, { "id": 41438, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "url_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "slug": "bmys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.403686Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:04:47.721418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.596611Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41153, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.404114Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:04:44.598404Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:51) is 53.46. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BMY. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41438, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767960606.176581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767960606.176581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5247137080567595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 5.0, 11.0, 1.0, 4.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.10328058475384, "peer_score": 2.492814752209772, "coverage": 0.9921076299967589, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03081744042346909, "weighted_coverage": 0.9921076299967589, "spot_peer_score": 2.2847940811932066, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -6.10328058475384, "peer_archived_score": 2.492814752209772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03081744042346909, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.2847940811932066, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:51) is 53.46. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`" }, { "id": 41436, "title": "Will CTAS's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "short_title": "CTAS's close price rises?", "url_title": "CTAS's close price rises?", "slug": "ctass-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:39.535117Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T03:49:15Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:00.234342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:39.728870Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:31:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:31:45Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T03:49:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41151, "title": "Will CTAS's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:39.535510Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T03:49:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:31:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:31:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:04:57.113755Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T05:19:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Cintas Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CTAS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:59) is 184.88. You can find more information about Cintas Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CTAS\n\nCintas Corporation engages in the provision of corporate identity uniforms and related business services primarily in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Uniform Rental and Facility Services, First Aid and Safety Services, and All Other segments. The company rents and services uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels, and other ancillary items; and provides restroom cleaning services and supplies, as well as sells uniforms. In addition, the company offers first aid and safety services, and fire protection products and services. It provides its products and services through its distribution network and local delivery routes, or local representatives to small service and manufacturing companies, as well as major corporations. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cintas Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Cintas Corporation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CTAS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CTAS. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CTAS's close price rises?", "post_id": 41436, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767935803.990597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767935803.990597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5339891164169935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 9.0, 12.0, 7.0, 19.0, 7.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.817621404004935, "peer_score": 0.660276987826543, "coverage": 0.9901796549779397, "relative_legacy_score": 0.007708804370077723, "weighted_coverage": 0.9901796549779397, "spot_peer_score": 1.7098838965581622, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 10.817621404004935, "peer_archived_score": 0.660276987826543, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.007708804370077723, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7098838965581622, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cintas Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CTAS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:59) is 184.88. You can find more information about Cintas Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CTAS\n\nCintas Corporation engages in the provision of corporate identity uniforms and related business services primarily in the United States, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Uniform Rental and Facility Services, First Aid and Safety Services, and All Other segments. The company rents and services uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels, and other ancillary items; and provides restroom cleaning services and supplies, as well as sells uniforms. In addition, the company offers first aid and safety services, and fire protection products and services. It provides its products and services through its distribution network and local delivery routes, or local representatives to small service and manufacturing companies, as well as major corporations. The company was founded in 1968 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio. Cintas Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Cintas Corporation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CTAS\"}}`" }, { "id": 41435, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 30.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-over-23-of-the-eu-recognize-palestine-before-july-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:35.856541Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T03:03:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-18T07:03:37.119156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:36.266994Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T07:34:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T07:34:57Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T03:03:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41150, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 30.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:35.856937Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T03:03:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T07:34:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T07:34:57Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-18T07:03:33.980676Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T04:33:57Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 30.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.3}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-17 07:34:57 is higher than 30.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 30.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-17 07:34:57, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41435, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767932972.583609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23249999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767932972.583609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23249999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3272156933850179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.55851238537569, "peer_score": 3.4528837068837235, "coverage": 0.9618269057627077, "relative_legacy_score": 0.026872465644742372, "weighted_coverage": 0.9618269057627077, "spot_peer_score": -0.7381817287141329, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 44.55851238537569, "peer_archived_score": 3.4528837068837235, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.026872465644742372, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7381817287141329, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 30.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.3}}`" }, { "id": 41434, "title": "Will WY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "short_title": "WY's close price rises?", "url_title": "WY's close price rises?", "slug": "wys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:31.359183Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T00:02:03Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:06.364437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:32.600244Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:33:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:33:26Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T00:02:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41149, "title": "Will WY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:31.359584Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T00:02:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:33:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:33:26Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:03.255769Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T01:32:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Weyerhaeuser Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:06) is 23.8. You can find more information about Weyerhaeuser Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WY\n\nWeyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900 and today owns or controls approximately 10.4 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada. Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards. Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, and energy and natural resources, among others. In 2024, the company generated $7.1 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,400 people who serve customers worldwide. Operated as a real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser's common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WY. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "WY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41434, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767922147.473435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767922147.473435, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4875925925925926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 3.0, 6.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -2.3822707619844663, "peer_score": -1.0519586562786871, "coverage": 0.9572467309457285, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0004012519500684185, "weighted_coverage": 0.9572467309457285, "spot_peer_score": -0.9669330355904879, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -2.3822707619844663, "peer_archived_score": -1.0519586562786871, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0004012519500684185, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9669330355904879, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weyerhaeuser Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:06) is 23.8. You can find more information about Weyerhaeuser Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WY\n\nWeyerhaeuser Company, one of the world's largest private owners of timberlands, began operations in 1900 and today owns or controls approximately 10.4 million acres of timberlands in the U.S., as well as additional public timberlands managed under long-term licenses in Canada. Weyerhaeuser has been a global leader in sustainability for more than a century and manages 100 percent of its timberlands on a fully sustainable basis in compliance with internationally recognized sustainable forestry standards. Weyerhaeuser is also one of the largest manufacturers of wood products in North America and operates additional business lines around product distribution, climate solutions, real estate, and energy and natural resources, among others. In 2024, the company generated $7.1 billion in net sales and employed approximately 9,400 people who serve customers worldwide. Operated as a real estate investment trust, Weyerhaeuser's common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol WY.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WY\"}}`" }, { "id": 41433, "title": "Will HSIC's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-08?", "short_title": "HSIC's close price rises?", "url_title": "HSIC's close price rises?", "slug": "hsics-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:27.722896Z", "published_at": "2026-01-08T20:19:01Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:12.538660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:27.936113Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T04:11:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T04:11:54Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T20:19:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41148, "title": "Will HSIC's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-08?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:27.723326Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T20:19:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T04:11:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T04:11:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:09.414474Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-08T21:49:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Henry Schein, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HSIC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:55) is 76.82. You can find more information about Henry Schein, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSIC\n\nHenry Schein, Inc. provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners, and alternate sites of care worldwide. It operates through Global Distribution and Value-Added Services; Global Specialty Products; and Global Technology segments. The company offers dental merchandise, including infection-control products, handpieces, preventatives, impression materials, composites, anesthetics, teeth, dental implants, gypsum, acrylics, articulators, abrasives, and PPE products; dental equipment, such as dental chairs, delivery units and lights, digital dental laboratories, X-ray supplies and equipment, and high-tech and digital restoration equipment, as well as equipment repair; and branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, and vitamins. It also provides financial services on a nonrecourse basis, education services for practitioners, consulting, and other services; and consumable merchandise under its own brand. In addition, the company manufactures, markets, and sells dental implant and biomaterial products; and endodontic, orthodontic and orthopedic products and other health care-related products and services. Further, it is involved in the development and distribution of practice management software, e-services, and other products to health care providers. The company serves customers in dental practices, laboratories, physician practices, and ambulatory surgery centers, as well as government, institutional health care clinics and other alternate care clinics. Henry Schein, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HSIC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of HSIC. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "HSIC's close price rises?", "post_id": 41433, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767908747.04144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767908747.04144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5147440882331707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 11.0, 7.0, 5.0, 14.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.950313064200936, "peer_score": 0.44875496232146783, "coverage": 0.9304315516683789, "relative_legacy_score": 0.006719287144483923, "weighted_coverage": 0.9304315516683789, "spot_peer_score": 1.6309109767257792, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "baseline_archived_score": 6.950313064200936, "peer_archived_score": 0.44875496232146783, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.006719287144483923, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6309109767257792, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Henry Schein, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HSIC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:55) is 76.82. You can find more information about Henry Schein, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSIC\n\nHenry Schein, Inc. provides health care products and services to office-based dental and medical practitioners, and alternate sites of care worldwide. It operates through Global Distribution and Value-Added Services; Global Specialty Products; and Global Technology segments. The company offers dental merchandise, including infection-control products, handpieces, preventatives, impression materials, composites, anesthetics, teeth, dental implants, gypsum, acrylics, articulators, abrasives, and PPE products; dental equipment, such as dental chairs, delivery units and lights, digital dental laboratories, X-ray supplies and equipment, and high-tech and digital restoration equipment, as well as equipment repair; and branded and generic pharmaceuticals, vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, and vitamins. It also provides financial services on a nonrecourse basis, education services for practitioners, consulting, and other services; and consumable merchandise under its own brand. In addition, the company manufactures, markets, and sells dental implant and biomaterial products; and endodontic, orthodontic and orthopedic products and other health care-related products and services. Further, it is involved in the development and distribution of practice management software, e-services, and other products to health care providers. The company serves customers in dental practices, laboratories, physician practices, and ambulatory surgery centers, as well as government, institutional health care clinics and other alternate care clinics. Henry Schein, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HSIC\"}}`" }, { "id": 41430, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 26.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-israel-found-guilty-in-sas-icj-genocide-case-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:17.119691Z", "published_at": "2026-01-08T03:26:29Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:24.814225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:17.344494Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T18:47:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T18:47:19Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T03:26:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41145, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 26.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:17.120145Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T03:26:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T18:47:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T18:47:19Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:21.704024Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-08T04:56:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31071\n- Original question title: Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 26.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the International Court of Justice finds that Israel has violated international law in South Africa's genocide case. If this does not happen before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any potential judgement by the ICJ in a different case regarding Israel will be immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n> \n> This forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n> \n> The case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n> \n> Israel has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n> \n> The resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31071,\"question_id\":30817,\"last_cp\":0.26}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31071) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 18:47:19 is higher than 26.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 26.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 18:47:19, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Israel found guilty in SA's ICJ genocide case before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41430, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767846122.053934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767846122.053934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3757367219130764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.275919951742196, "peer_score": 4.3209772868452525, "coverage": 0.9157677472079241, "relative_legacy_score": 0.055892473543500104, "weighted_coverage": 0.9157677472079241, "spot_peer_score": 6.298892739336106, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 34.275919951742196, "peer_archived_score": 4.3209772868452525, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.055892473543500104, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.298892739336106, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31071\n- Original question title: Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 26.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the International Court of Justice finds that Israel has violated international law in South Africa's genocide case. If this does not happen before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any potential judgement by the ICJ in a different case regarding Israel will be immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case before the International Court of Justice?\n> \n> This forecasting question pertains to the [<u>ongoing legal proceedings initiated by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192). The case alleges that Israel has committed acts of genocide against the Palestinian population, invoking the [<u>1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide</u>](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf), to which both [<u>countries are signatories</u>](https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY\\&mtdsg_no=IV-1\\&chapter=4).\n> \n> The case, filed in [<u>December 2023</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf), emerges amidst heightened tensions following the Israel-Gaza [<u>war</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#:~:text=An%20armed%20conflict%20between%20Israel,Yom%20Kippur%20War%20in%201973.), which have intensified global scrutiny of Israel's policies in the occupied territories. South Africa’s government, historically vocal in its support for Palestinian self-determination, argues that Israel’s actions meet the legal criteria for genocide as defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention. Along with South Africa, at least [<u>14 other countries</u>](https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/) have joined the suit.\n> \n> Israel has strongly denied the allegations, calling them “[<u>baseless</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-781745)” and politically motivated. Its representatives argue that the measures taken in the West Bank and Gaza Strip are consistent with its [<u>right to </u>](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51/english/rep_supp3_vol2_art51.pdf)<u>self-defence</u> and do not meet the legal threshold for genocide. For its part, the ICJ is tasked with [<u>determining whether the case has merit</u>](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-sum-01-00-en.pdf) and, ultimately, whether Israel’s actions constitute a violation of international law.\n> \n> The resolution of this question is uncertain, given the legal, political, and evidentiary complexities involved. The ICJ’s verdict is expected to depend on a combination of the submitted evidence, legal arguments, and the broader context of international law enforcement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31071,\"question_id\":30817,\"last_cp\":0.26}}`" }, { "id": 41428, "title": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-07?", "short_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "url_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "slug": "wats-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:09.973352Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:37.100298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:10.271781Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41143, "title": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-07?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:09.973803Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:33.995220Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Waters Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:54) is 381.96. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. In addition, the company offers MS technology are used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing. Further, the company provides thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer good, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research. Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WAT. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "post_id": 41428, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767816703.666099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767816703.666099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5162071753466065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 5.0, 5.0, 14.0, 13.0, 3.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.6556697596683865, "peer_score": 0.04966189248130777, "coverage": 0.9886997401714326, "relative_legacy_score": -0.008791500868968237, "weighted_coverage": 0.9886997401714326, "spot_peer_score": -0.18713615393377248, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -6.6556697596683865, "peer_archived_score": 0.04966189248130777, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.008791500868968237, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.18713615393377248, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Waters Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:54) is 381.96. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. In addition, the company offers MS technology are used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing. Further, the company provides thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer good, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research. Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`" }, { "id": 41425, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-lisa-cook-not-a-member-of-the-federal-reserve-board-before-nov-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.328866Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:43.341949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.574432Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41140, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.329281Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:40.112712Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 11:56:27 is higher than 11.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 11.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 11:56:27, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41425, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767797248.931302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767797248.931302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6849999999999999, 0.315 ], "means": [ 0.3318112239579261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -65.8815923459161, "peer_score": 4.5118123308090965, "coverage": 0.9685655072441807, "relative_legacy_score": -0.2283886573354439, "weighted_coverage": 0.9685655072441807, "spot_peer_score": 4.6269529518384385, "spot_baseline_score": -66.65762662748082, "baseline_archived_score": -65.8815923459161, "peer_archived_score": 4.5118123308090965, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.2283886573354439, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.6269529518384385, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -66.65762662748082 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`" }, { "id": 41424, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:55.762033Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:05:49.473149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:56.001717Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41139, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:55.762554Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:46.366982Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 17:09:42 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. 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Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41422, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-scotus-strike-down-louisianas-congressional-map-restoring-gop-lean", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:48.825230Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:06:01.772845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:49.016429Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41137, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:48.825634Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:05:58.628302Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417\n- Original question title: In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 5, 2026, in [Louisiana, Appellant v Phillip Callais, et al.](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html), the United States Supreme Court holds that the Louisiana congressional [map](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/Act2Congress/District%20and%20Split%20Parish%20Maps/Act%202%20\\(SB8\\)%201st%20ES%202024%20-%20Congressional%20Districts%20-%20Statewide.pdf) for 2024 ([SB8](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/2024CONGRESSACT2)) is illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise invalid under the US Constitution or federal law. \n> \n> If, before October 5, 2026, the Court issues a final disposition of Louisiana v. Callais affirming the SB8 map, or dismissing, vacating or remanding the case on other grounds, then the question resolves as **No**. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n> \n> The Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n> \n> With Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n> \n> Shortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n> \n> For more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40417,\"question_id\":39987,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 15:14:55 is higher than 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 15:14:55, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "post_id": 41422, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767751194.298952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767751194.298952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6275, 0.3725 ], "means": [ 0.39039794749772394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.825092548406463, "peer_score": 4.623778228047404, "coverage": 0.9629803118440841, "relative_legacy_score": -0.030278754039056846, "weighted_coverage": 0.9629803118440841, "spot_peer_score": 6.562647272764179, "spot_baseline_score": 32.768736417604714, "baseline_archived_score": 26.825092548406463, "peer_archived_score": 4.623778228047404, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.030278754039056846, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.562647272764179, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.768736417604714 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417\n- Original question title: In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 5, 2026, in [Louisiana, Appellant v Phillip Callais, et al.](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html), the United States Supreme Court holds that the Louisiana congressional [map](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/Act2Congress/District%20and%20Split%20Parish%20Maps/Act%202%20\\(SB8\\)%201st%20ES%202024%20-%20Congressional%20Districts%20-%20Statewide.pdf) for 2024 ([SB8](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/2024CONGRESSACT2)) is illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise invalid under the US Constitution or federal law. \n> \n> If, before October 5, 2026, the Court issues a final disposition of Louisiana v. Callais affirming the SB8 map, or dismissing, vacating or remanding the case on other grounds, then the question resolves as **No**. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n> \n> The Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n> \n> With Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n> \n> Shortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n> \n> For more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40417,\"question_id\":39987,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`" }, { "id": 41421, "title": "Will ERIE's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "ERIE's close price rises?", "url_title": "ERIE's close price rises?", "slug": "eries-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.354704Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:06:08.013557Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.579546Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41136, "title": "Will ERIE's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.355101Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:06:04.900976Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Erie Indemnity Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:57) is 277.81. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ERIE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ERIE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:57) is 277.81. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ERIE\"}}`" }, { "id": 41420, "title": "Will STE's market close price on 2026-01-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "STE's close price rises?", "url_title": "STE's close price rises?", "slug": "stes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.757779Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:06:14.137968Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.948140Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41135, "title": "Will STE's market close price on 2026-01-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.758184Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:06:11.035685Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "STERIS plc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:09) is 250.04. You can find more information about STERIS plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STE\n\nSTERIS plc provides infection prevention products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Healthcare, Applied Sterilization Technologies (AST), and Life Sciences. The Healthcare segment offers cleaning chemistries and sterility assurance products; automated endoscope reprocessing system and tracking products; endoscopy accessories, washers, sterilizers, and other pieces of capital equipment for the operation of a sterile processing department; and equipment used directly in procedure rooms, including surgical tables, lights, and connectivity solutions, as well as equipment management services. It also provides capital equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; preventive maintenance programs and repair services; instrument, devices, and endoscope repair and maintenance services; and custom process improvement consulting and outsourced instrument sterile processing services. The AST segment provides contract sterilization and testing services for medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturers through a network of contract sterilization and laboratory facilities, as well as integrated sterilization equipment and control systems to medical device manufacturers and research institutions. The Life Sciences segment designs, manufactures, and sells consumable products, such as pharmaceutical detergents, cleanroom disinfectants and sterilants, pharmaceutical grade and research sterilizers and washers, sterility assurance and maintenance products, vaporized hydrogen peroxide room decontamination systems and sterilizers, and high purity water and pure steam generators. This segment also offers equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; and preventive maintenance programs and repair services. It serves its products and services to hospitals, other healthcare providers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"STE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. 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It's ticker is STE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:09) is 250.04. You can find more information about STERIS plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STE\n\nSTERIS plc provides infection prevention products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Healthcare, Applied Sterilization Technologies (AST), and Life Sciences. The Healthcare segment offers cleaning chemistries and sterility assurance products; automated endoscope reprocessing system and tracking products; endoscopy accessories, washers, sterilizers, and other pieces of capital equipment for the operation of a sterile processing department; and equipment used directly in procedure rooms, including surgical tables, lights, and connectivity solutions, as well as equipment management services. It also provides capital equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; preventive maintenance programs and repair services; instrument, devices, and endoscope repair and maintenance services; and custom process improvement consulting and outsourced instrument sterile processing services. The AST segment provides contract sterilization and testing services for medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturers through a network of contract sterilization and laboratory facilities, as well as integrated sterilization equipment and control systems to medical device manufacturers and research institutions. The Life Sciences segment designs, manufactures, and sells consumable products, such as pharmaceutical detergents, cleanroom disinfectants and sterilants, pharmaceutical grade and research sterilizers and washers, sterility assurance and maintenance products, vaporized hydrogen peroxide room decontamination systems and sterilizers, and high purity water and pure steam generators. This segment also offers equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; and preventive maintenance programs and repair services. It serves its products and services to hospitals, other healthcare providers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. 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It's ticker is VICI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:53) is 28.15. You can find more information about VICI Properties Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICI\n\nVICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VICI\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VICI. 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It's ticker is VICI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:53) is 28.15. You can find more information about VICI Properties Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICI\n\nVICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VICI\"}}`" } ] }
