Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6000
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No third party candidates won any seats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2010, under the Obama administration. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during their first term, and current polling on a national generic ballot indicates that Democrats have an [6-8 percentage point lead](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo) over Republicans.\n\nIf Democrats win 218 seats or more in 2018, they will have secured a majority in the house. ***Will that happen?***\n\n\n435 seats will be contested on November 6th, except for Louisiana, whose general election occurs on December 8th. The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give control to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2019 and elects a Speaker of the House.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541387891.910231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541387891.910231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7024682556412695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.385688521187467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.306505971806641e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004876096931450825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4830438612523698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005467230053624408, 0.0, 0.037464714711063316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039336804802494685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-engineers-create-a-material-with-a-melting-point-higher-than-4300k-and-hence-any-other-substance-by-2021", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-03T16:19:34.593974Z", "published_at": "2018-03-06T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.516933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-06T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-19T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-19T18:26:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-06T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 671, "title": "Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?", "created_at": "2018-03-03T16:19:34.593974Z", "open_time": "2018-03-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-08T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-08T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-01-19T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-01-19T18:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-01-19T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Materials scientists do some astonishing work. Behold [titanium foam](https://gizmodo.com/5-of-the-craziest-new-man-made-materials-893364032/1277311218), [aerogel](https://interestingengineering.com/9-interesting-materials-shape-future), a.k.a. \"frozen smoke\", and [multiferroics](https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/06/17/4-amazing-new-materials-that-science-doesnt-quite-know-what-to-do-with-yet/#4ee5f5b86a10).\n\nBut no material is cooler than [tantalum hafnium carbide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tantalum_hafnium_carbide). To be more precise, no other material currently engineered can stay \"cool\" (that is, solid) at temperatures approaching 4200 K. For reference, that's about 2/3rds the temperature of the sun's surface!\n\nCan engineers do better, though? [Researchers at Brown University say:](https://www.asminternational.org/web/cmdnetwork/home/-/journal_content/56/10180/25655039/NEWS). \n\n> new calculations suggest that an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon — HfN0.38C0.51 — is a promising candidate to set a new mark.\n\n*** Will this new material – or some other compound – break (or should we say \"melt\") the melting point record by 2021? ***\n\nResult is positive if a paper appears in a trusted, peer reviewed journal confirming the creation of a substance with a higher melting point than 4300 K by 2021. (That's above the record, but below the predicted melting point of HfN0.38C0.51.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1568488567.353683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1568488567.353683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3524256296019405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0680780075686628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015293308678819562, 0.05003727178133165, 0.0, 0.008419408942318537, 0.07213643555966935, 0.0, 0.00044553343099167526, 0.0022851573978883814, 0.2126840935995492, 1.5283812030292516, 0.03022172810477587, 0.0006645496912406789, 0.7959270044892821, 0.3228833177507363, 1.2435477509903037, 0.1838735645057474, 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title of world chess champion this November?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-magnus-carlsen-retain-his-title-of-world-chess-champion-this-november", "author_id": 104272, "author_username": "AdamKosloff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-03-02T16:19:13.316894Z", "published_at": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.959717Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-28T18:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-28T18:47:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 185, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 670, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?", "created_at": "2018-03-02T16:19:13.316894Z", "open_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-05T20:01:26.693849Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-05T20:01:26.693849Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-11-28T18:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-11-28T18:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-11-28T18:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "27 year old chess prodigy, Magnus Carlsen, has [dominated](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/feb/02/magnus-carlsen-back-to-form-wijk-victory) top level tournament chess over the past several years. Notably, he's also racked up amazing results in blitz, defeating American Hikaru Nakamura in Chess.com's 2017-2018 blitz tournament as well as in February's FischerRandom [test](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-beats-nakamura-14-10-in-fischer-random-chess).\n\nIn November 2018, though, Magnus will have to defend his crown against a hungry field including grandmasters like Sergei Karjakin, Wesley So and Caruana Fabiano. \n\n*** Will he [win the match](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2018) and keep the title? ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540911353.296639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540911353.296639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 669, "title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?", "created_at": "2018-03-02T16:16:31.070226Z", "open_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-06T02:25:15.938946Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-06T02:25:15.938946Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T21:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\n\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\n\n> will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to\nthe recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\n\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\n\n*** Will this bold prediction come to pass? ***\n\nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n\n*(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577855931.309477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577855931.309477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2126087527535331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1275241360438057, 0.4719509605352668, 0.05620179634266334, 0.4337951064507616, 2.3549079304997784, 0.03627506129959581, 0.07416928652637793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2945900372526131, 0.3346156724192523, 2.6211281786610754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9658172820945459, 0.17126870197427058, 0.12544768033996292, 2.0912166126315066, 0.0, 1.204644565836986, 0.0037313863919853254, 0.5660669897015576, 0.4562460730416303, 0.0, 0.21106922494338443, 0.0, 0.0, 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"coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-27T14:44:22.791306Z", "published_at": "2018-03-02T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.693091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-03-02T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-07T14:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-07T14:51:00Z", "open_time": "2018-03-02T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 667, "title": "Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?", "created_at": "2018-02-27T14:44:22.791306Z", "open_time": "2018-03-02T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-04T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-04T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-07T14:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-07T14:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-07T14:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "(*note*: experimental question)\n\nCryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, [growing by a factor of 100 during 2017](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/2017s-ico-market-grew-nearly-100x-q1-q4/) with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to [~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/total-venture-capital-dollars-invested-in-2017-on-track-to-reach-decade-high), but the proportion is rapidly rising.\n\nHowever, cryptocurrencies hit a bit of a wall in mid-December 2017 and have been declining or stable between then and late February. Along with participation, utility, and investment, it's clear that a significant component of coin purchasing is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...there is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...\n\nSo one might imagine that in a flat or declining coin market ICOs are going to have a tough time. The question one would like to answer if one were contemplating an ICO would be something like:\n\n*** On May 1 will the ICO space still be growing in overall size, and stable in success likelihood? ***\n\n(Here, \"success likelihood\" is something like expectation value of capital raised for a fixed quality of project.)\n\nThe attentive Metaculus user will note that this question is far less specific and well-posed than usual. This is by intent. The question will be resolved in the following manner. The question will remain open until its resolution time. Then:\n\n* If at the resolution time the community prediction probability is < 10% or > 90%, the question will resolve negatively or positively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, it will be resolved by the personal, unquestioned discretion of the question's author. \n\nThe intent (along with crypto-insight) is to experiment with a new idea about consensus question resolution, in which a question might close (differently from this one), but remain open for predictions *about the resolution.* This might either be neat, or perhaps create in infinite unstable meta-regress; we'll see and experiment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1526364188.133355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1526364188.133355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.56 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 666, "title": "Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?", "created_at": "2018-02-25T10:12:24.298035Z", "open_time": "2018-03-02T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-03-04T05:07:46.951163Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-03-04T05:07:46.951163Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-17T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-17T13:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-04-17T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-04-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-04-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Disclaimer:* This question is a bit experimental, but might be quite interesting.\n\nOne of the most interesting things you notice when predicting on Metaculus is that any arbitrary event a priori is less likely to happen than not and less likely to happen than most people think (this is why the Metaculus prediction tends to calibrate down). An event is defined here as something you would ask to <strong>happen</strong>, rather than <strong>not happen</strong>, for a positive resolution to a question.\n\nIt would be interesting to determine a general value for the a priori probability of an event happening as defined above. This value could allow us to estimate the probability of events for which there is little evidence for or against. For example, <a href=' https://www.theguardian.com/education/2004/mar/08/highereducation.uk1'>the probability that God exists</a> has been estimated to be 67%, yet the problem is that the a priori was taken to be 50%. There is no reason to assume this.\n\nThe only way to determine an a priori probability for a question resolving positive would be to remove anything question specific from the question: to not tell people what the question is. This is what we are going to do. A question has been set for the resolution of this question, but it is known only to me and the Metaculus admin. Obviously, those who know the question should not predict on this question.\n\nIt is asked:\n\n*** Will this question, with its secret resolution criteria, resolve positive? ***\n\nTo wet your appetite I'm going to outline a few possible considerations one might take when answering this question. Of course, there are many others.\n\nOne could sample from the Metaculus track record. 55/208=26.4% of questions resolved positive (at least according to my counting). \n\nYet, Metaculus also has a technology heavy question stack and there is a separate effect to the general overestimation of probabilities, which is the general overestimation of technological progress in our time, that might be influencing this figure. Note that no category has been selected for this question, as it is not given in which category it is. It may, or may not, have anything to do with technology. It might even be in a completely new category.\n\nAlso, only short-term questions have resolved. What would be the a priori for more long-term questions? I could have picked a question we already know the answer to, which would have been a very long-term question long ago, for resolution. Or I could not have. You just don't know.\n\nAlso, this question will resolve in 2018 and in 2018 (up to now) we have had even more negative resolutions than usual.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1523744308.213317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1523744308.213317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.44225625113444583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002758391723504557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37107639909708895, 0.0, 0.9568712584961879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014991358198822502, 0.0, 0.7138071073923017, 0.045484008828681914, 0.23701969683936608, 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Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the US require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if between 2018 to 2049 (inclusive), there is at least one calendar year when 10% or more of Earth's operational satellites become inoperable due to collisions with space debris", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763522057.174789, "end_time": 1771226273.028199, "forecaster_count": 424, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763522057.174789, "end_time": 1771226273.028199, "forecaster_count": 424, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.17152959012092447 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5458102682622191, 1.2010516530707558, 0.000320484553671385, 1.7616419843001143, 0.931532593029087, 3.4009462539548716, 0.07894440738691824, 0.09349520420348989, 0.5666175222498259, 1.9124800319547988, 5.198434436694563, 0.8781993918927762, 2.160401125358446, 0.4247823204277909, 0.9745383918842552, 4.151395221595267, 0.11204267952690233, 0.06824807214854846, 1.5696015892110557, 0.23804902036125353, 2.23071441426246, 0.05475209353088223, 0.018367987894650366, 0.15878486552010931, 0.14799182269814148, 4.14220085931826, 0.3301645624217543, 0.09504911140235538, 1.0474308039294398, 0.0, 1.1111167286940686, 0.479282175458281, 0.05534449676930572, 0.5179102268809165, 0.006586499899292884, 0.3989399057981338, 0.00017812953655751558, 1.86984377122525e-07, 3.8508298888879095e-06, 0.8027509993102313, 3.665138356766023e-05, 0.0, 0.002321779792116562, 3.72091657256173e-05, 0.0025734150636138584, 0.36959689519046945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010667356940992186, 0.0, 0.0009212401806532554, 0.0, 0.5631536639126382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14137238351386078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001505170547763743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1491012029960343e-05, 0.008135431934383161, 5.881626665138292e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 2.232599079845986e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41971584396759415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.168606317585734e-06, 7.046465105442093e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5045564896394485e-05, 5.426255883803419e-07, 0.0, 2.3905884620376353e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013241027242240203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30891974148449625 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287872.648992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287872.648992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9433531368746352, 0.05664686312536481 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 48, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 949, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome'>Kessler syndrome</a> is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\n\nAs of 2018, we are losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the US require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown." }, { "id": 664, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacexs-starlink-start-deployment-by-2021", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-24T18:53:08.868284Z", "published_at": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.547421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-05-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-23T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 664, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?", "created_at": "2018-02-24T18:53:08.868284Z", "open_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-28T17:56:12.316773Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-28T17:56:12.316773Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-05-23T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-05-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-23T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In November 2016, SpaceX [filed an application](http://licensing.fcc.gov/cgi-bin/ws.exe/prod/ib/forms/reports/swr031b.hts?q_set=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number/%3D/SATLOA2016111500118&prepare=&column=V_SITE_ANTENNA_FREQ.file_numberC/File+Number) with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for a license to use portions of telecommunications frequencies to communicate with a network of satellites that would bring internet coverage to every point on the planet, no matter how remote. \nNamed Starlink (thankfully not called \"Skynet\"), this network would provide speeds of up to one gigabit per second (Gbps). Each satellite would have a total throughput of about 20 Gbps, utilizing a 2 GHz frequency band in the 11-15 GHz range.\n\nBut the most ambitious aspect of SpaceX's plan is the number of satellites they plan to launch: 4,425 satellites, with a potential for 7,518 satellites in orbital planes even closer to the ground. Only 1,500 satellites currently orbit Earth. \n\nOn Feb. 22, 2018 SpaceX [launched two test satellites, Tintin-1 and Tintin 2](https://heavy.com/tech/2018/02/tintin-spacex-satellites-starlink-name/), which appear to share many of the characteristics of the satellites that the plan would eventually deploy.\n\nBut will Starlink actually happen? And when? A full system as described could cost tens of billions of dollars total, and it is unclear whether the financing is in place. And there are competitive efforts by the [OneWeb satellite constellation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OneWeb_satellite_constellation), a major [Samsung effort](https://www.popsci.com/samsung-wants-launch-thousands-satellites-bring-everyone-earth-internet) and others. We'll ask:\n\n*** By 2021, will at least ten Starlink satellites have been launched and be in orbit? ***\n\nThis can include the Tintins, and is aimed at whether \"production level\" satellites are starting to be put aloft.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1558801530.251441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1558801530.251441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9160566196940122 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.14610858893109777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5089531706053047, 0.0033068955420861522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011824677601950058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05115098077641381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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{ "id": 663, "title": "Will quantum computing \"supremacy” be achieved by 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-quantum-computing-supremacy-be-achieved-by-2025", "author_id": 104272, "author_username": "AdamKosloff", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-24T16:41:42.932627Z", "published_at": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.327418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-12-05T21:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-12-05T21:55:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "For decades, tech enthusiasts have hoped that breakthroughs in quantum computing would allow us to do wonderful things, such as:\n\n- [“[disrupt the] financial, pharmaceutical, and security industries”](https://futurism.com/future-quantum-computer/)\n\n- [“transform our machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities”](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/09/05/how-quantum-computers-will-revolutionize-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-and-big-data/2/#714f59467bc9)\n\n- [(“hugely reduce the time and cost of… calculations [that predict the properties of pharmaceutical drugs]”](https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/technology/2017/12/how-quantum-computing-will-change-world)\n\nOne of the first steps to this bright future is the achievement of what’s known as [quantum supremacy](https://www.fastcompany.com/40514189/intel-new-chip-aims-for-quantum-supremacy)—the creation of a quantum computer capable of solving problems that a classic computer cannot.\n\nBut skeptics like [Phillip Ball](https://www.nature.com/news/race-for-quantum-supremacy-hits-theoretical-quagmire-1.22993) and mathematician Gil Kalai now [argue](https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.3093) that large scale quantum computing projects will always be hampered by irreducible noise in the system.\n\nKalai recently explained his argument in an [interview with Quanta Magazine:](https://www.quantamagazine.org/gil-kalais-argument-against-quantum-computers-20180207/) “[the results of an experiment performed by Kalai and colleagues] shows that the noise level [in a quantum computer] cannot be reduced, because doing so will contradict an insight from the theory of computing about the power of primitive computational devices. Noisy quantum computers in the small and intermediate scale deliver primitive computational power. They are too primitive to reach “quantum supremacy” — and if quantum supremacy is not possible, then creating quantum error-correcting codes, which is harder, is also impossible.”\n\n*** Will quantum supremacy be achieved by 2025, rather than proving elusive for years to come if not indefinitely? ***\n\nThe question resolves positively if quantum supremacy has been demonstrated by 2025. [Precisely defining quantum supremacy is itself somewhat tricky](https://www.nature.com/news/race-for-quantum-supremacy-hits-theoretical-quagmire-1.22993). We will thus use a working definition that John Preskill, inventor of the term, makes public declarations to the effect that it has been definitively shown.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1527831218.139234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1527831218.139234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4125938601432007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6396064429204481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3507578073229894, 0.2984920536705656, 0.019549436878526404, 0.0, 0.009419608219617398, 0.0, 1.0601755283670518, 0.0, 0.37182283818623535, 0.04657082291161782, 0.0, 0.030973392445418683, 0.0, 0.0005046411140264085, 0.014898447896288268, 0.01788310826903167, 0.9008051167026192, 0.0, 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[Per the agency,](https://wfirst.gsfc.nasa.gov/about.html) the purpose is “to settle essential questions in the areas of dark energy, exoplanets, and infrared astrophysics.” Among other things, the observatory will “have a field of view that is 100 times greater than the Hubble infrared instrument, capturing more of the sky with less observing time… [and] will measure light from a billion galaxies over the course of the mission lifetime… It also has instruments to find and take images of planets around other stars.”\n\nBut WFIRST is in trouble.\n\nThe Trump administration proposed a budget for Fiscal Year 2019 that would [cancel the observatory,](https://www.space.com/39670-trump-nasa-2019-budget-cancels-wfirst-earth-science.html) which (for technical reasons) would have required an increase in funding.\n\nProminent science journalist, Ethan Siegel (“Starts with a Bang”) [has argued](https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/02/20/cancelling-wfirst-will-permanently-ruin-nasa/#365e09ee57b0) that this move would “permanently ruin NASA.” He writes “If WFIRST gets cancelled, it's a sign that even the most important NASA project, as determined by internal, external, and independent reviewers, is subject to political whims.”\n\n*** Will WFIRST survive this attack? ***\n\nFor a positive resolution WFIRST must still be funded through 2019 at a level compatible with the mission's continuation, as of the 2018 midterm elections, via whatever budget is in place at that time. 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Beginning in the early 1980’s, [following government advice,](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/21/opinion/when-the-government-tells-you-what-to-eat.html) Americans began to eat more carbohydrate and cut back on fatty foods. \n\nThis massive change correlated with an explosion of [twin epidemics](https://asmbs.org/resources/weight-and-type-2-diabetes-after-bariatric-surgery-fact-sheet) of obesity and type 2 diabetes. \n\nCritics of these guidelines, such as journalists [Gary Taubes](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jan/25/case-against-sugar-gary-taubes-review) and [Nina Teicholz,](www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-taubes-teicholz-us-news-best-diet-problems-20180128-story.html) have argued that the widespread adoption of a low fat, high carb diet fueled this “diabesity” epidemic. \n\nNevertheless, the 3 promoted “Dietary Patterns” in the [2015 U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/2015/guidelines/) were all [low fat, high carbohydrate.](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/still-on-a-onesizefitsall-diet/)\n\nThere has been a small, but growing insurgency among a minority of doctors and nutritionists, who counsel alternative eating patterns, [claiming they’re healthier](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25287761) than the official guidelines.\n\n*** Will health authorities finally change their tune 40 years after getting behind a low fat, high carb diet? ***\n\nA positive result would be the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Despite the unbelievable level of evidence available, and the fact that anyone with a [well and a stick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eratosthenes) can prove that the Earth is round, belief in various forms of Flat-Eartherism is on the rise. [Newsweek reported](www.newsweek.com/flat-earth-conspiracy-america-726761) in November 2017 that “Starting in mid-2017, a string of news stories propelled the flat-Earth movement’s traffic into the digital stratosphere.”\n\n[The Economist concurs](https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/11/daily-chart-21): the publication has been charting Google searches for “flat Earth” terms, and it’s found that they’re increasingly popular.\n\nAt the same time, prominent U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle have been accused of [embracing fringe ideas.](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/upshot/the-showdown-over-how-we-define-fringe-views-in-america.html)\n\n*** How long will it take before a nominated Democratic or Republican candidate embraces Flat-Eartherism publicly? ***\n\nFor a positive result, an “out” Flat-Earther must be officially nominated by the Democratic or Republican party for statewide or national office by the end of 2020. (In case of any ambiguity the nominee must appear on the appropriate state's election ballot under one of the two major parties' names, running for a statewide or national office.) 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"resolution_set_time": "2021-01-03T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [2014 paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2758222) by Shawn Bayern suggested the possibility that an algorithm, rather than a person, could apparently legally manage a US LLC. From that paper:\n\n> As a result, autonomous systems may end up being able, at least, to emulate many of the private-law rights of legal persons. This essay demonstrates a technique by which this is possible by means of limited liability companies (LLCs), a very flexible modern type of business organizations.\n\nA more [recent paper appearing on SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2954173) agrees with this argument, and suggest that the law may also allow non-human (i.e. algorithmic) ownership of some other corporate structures. It also argues that this could be majorly problematic in various ways.", "resolution_criteria": "*** By 2021 will there be a case filed in a US court addressing a US LLC and alleging that the LLC is not managed by a human? ***\n\nFor positive resolution it must be possible to access the case docket on some major legal database, and it should be arguable that the judgement in the case could impact the legality of having a non-human run an LLC or other type of corporation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 659, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538369958.644593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538369958.644593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.142528948964239 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0059340104508347, 1.68744913590582, 0.0081981432990675, 0.029323637830876676, 1.5722150233835221, 0.22661520512653172, 0.5347753396016259, 0.45819723534666984, 0.21839918222372157, 1.1876237338452316, 0.19526459657708592, 1.3625836411729533, 0.0, 0.02340040377087851, 1.2232630249221206, 0.9142791590197232, 0.5985968059200315, 1.0044385643250355, 0.0, 2.122335355098523, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.5702601099052348, 1.5971140148521878, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.057350623050894396, 0.0, 0.011887882949387597, 0.20770107012426647, 0.001072543509344465, 0.07054314492133018, 0.0, 0.09216020163694309, 0.1552312653855167, 0.0035489586503395306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003974469316782441, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06588199375352612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016708066845587725, 0.12710445289692254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1628953631576628 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.191250712350548, "coverage": 0.9985382345684779, "baseline_score": 84.66929136234137, "spot_peer_score": 5.537582946516784, "peer_archived_score": 13.191250712350548, "baseline_archived_score": 84.66929136234137, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.537582946516784 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538307796.433761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538307796.433761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8880480949130851, 0.11195190508691488 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [2014 paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2758222) by Shawn Bayern suggested the possibility that an algorithm, rather than a person, could apparently legally manage a US LLC. 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It also argues that this could be majorly problematic in various ways." }, { "id": 658, "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?", "short_title": "Island of Stability by 2050", "url_title": "Island of Stability by 2050", "slug": "island-of-stability-by-2050", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-23T17:53:25.304447Z", "published_at": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.279298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 658, "title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?", "created_at": "2018-02-23T17:53:25.304447Z", "open_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-27T15:57:22.246000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-27T15:57:22.246000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\n\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an <a href=\" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability\">island of stability</a>. There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? ***\n\nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763281566.521865, "end_time": 1770578296.720198, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763281566.521865, "end_time": 1770578296.720198, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43752455277652413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1725716196117721, 0.006101160955103397, 0.0, 0.0, 1.015906808829796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1266781835353973, 0.0, 0.5708678024118939, 0.03420128217299712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001452173652663676, 0.5678879580594228, 0.00034960910137161777, 0.0, 0.0001915591898022816, 0.0030606371452652757, 1.4265533705905975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6724836846229231, 0.0, 0.9016185513842774, 0.00028105092264432924, 0.6493865310983571, 0.24318778522061218, 0.0, 2.0045738493595104, 0.09052222532603378, 0.07186849874125695, 0.5305946620178541, 2.3721929538260713e-05, 1.395700712750462, 0.2632276525269204, 0.0, 0.05816621769729782, 1.0700854556159236, 0.6111777348981684, 1.7705452707402236, 0.1850601386792653, 0.1348782813764999, 0.0, 0.6628327385751237, 0.23952004759720794, 0.0, 0.0008406406503391967, 0.0, 0.9688654589978795, 0.0028319757740496556, 0.0, 0.005708517808962283, 0.0, 1.007571990555048, 0.3001156140455619, 0.16296108332194018, 0.0, 0.0017917628339095223, 0.5461131159618808, 0.0, 0.08620116265831623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052143751328259325, 1.193009609945497, 0.0, 0.051063020792149555, 0.0, 0.8196757839200344, 0.0, 0.7265815531890821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05529713357397929, 0.0, 0.0011909179798871234, 0.03807188784525646, 0.0, 0.4608104215544512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009570109412940194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010937329097037772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015266238165126385, 0.0, 0.0, 1.826926409404751 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289577.951425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289577.951425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7859233450177452, 0.21407665498225487 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 310, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\n\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an <a href=\" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability\">island of stability</a>. There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created." }, { "id": 657, "title": "Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-india-land-on-the-moon-by-august-1-2018", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-21T16:43:12.628572Z", "published_at": "2018-02-24T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.352981Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-24T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-03T16:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-03T16:31:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-24T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 657, "title": "Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?", "created_at": "2018-02-21T16:43:12.628572Z", "open_time": "2018-02-24T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-25T10:57:48.201029Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-25T10:57:48.201029Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-03T16:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-03T16:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-08-03T16:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "While most attention regard \"budget\" spaceflight has been focused on Elon Musk and other commercial spacecraft enterprises, with their re-use technologies, there is another player in the \"low\"-cost space race: India.\n\nBy keeping their engineering teams and supply chain local to India and taking advantage of inexpensive labor and supplies, India has [launched successful missions to the Moon and Mars](https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/how-do-isro-keep-moon-mission-cost-cheaper-than-hollywood-hit-interstellar-scien/308595) at a small fraction of the cost of US launches by NASA, at least as computed in dollars (with no purchasing-price-parity adjustment applied.)\n\nTheir next mission, [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) is a landing on the Moon, slated for April. Per Wikipedia, \n\n> Chandrayaan 2 is scheduled to launch in April 2018 and will attempt to soft land a lander and rover in a high plain between two craters, Manzinus C and Simpelius N, at a latitude of about 70° south. If successful, Chandrayaan-2 will be the first-ever mission to land a rover near the lunar south pole.\n\nThe mission will be carried by the [GSLV2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geosynchronous_Satellite_Launch_Vehicle) system; this rocket has made its last four launched successfully, though there is a mixed record before that (including a GSLV1).\n\nThis lunar mission is not just interesting as a (potential) triumph of Indian engineering, but also at some level on the world spacecraft stage, as the mission is coming in at a cost of apparently $165M total; this probably makes it competitive even with SpaceX's re-used rockets.\n\n*** Will it succeed? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a spacecraft launched by India lands on the Moon by August 1, 2018 (giving some room for delays). The lander and rover need not be operational upon landing, and can even crash: we require just that something of 10 kg or more make it onto the surface.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1522362361.91925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1522362361.91925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.27936620995966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.689022635642931, 0.5434841695551872, 1.0653281118173665, 0.14607736383926273, 0.12889056950693184, 0.22829097309954705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06830738353597367, 1.181870135537714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8574992657844271, 0.7809460214043539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.055933253258358635, 0.3284921818141836, 0.0, 0.0, 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"will-the-sec-release-new-rules-governing-icos-by-october-2018", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-19T21:26:41.049393Z", "published_at": "2018-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.683043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T17:24:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 654, "title": "Will the SEC release new rules governing ICOs by October 2018?", "created_at": "2018-02-19T21:26:41.049393Z", "open_time": "2018-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-23T19:19:29.119183Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-23T19:19:29.119183Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-06T17:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-06T17:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, [growing by a factor of 100 during 2017](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/2017s-ico-market-grew-nearly-100x-q1-q4/) with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to [~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/total-venture-capital-dollars-invested-in-2017-on-track-to-reach-decade-high), but the proportion is rapidly rising.\n\nHowever, there is something of a regulatory cloud of uncertainty hanging over the ICO industry. How cryptocurrencies in general are viewed by various government agencies [vary widely among countries.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-us-and-the-world-are-regulating-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrency-2017-12-18) The ICO issue particularly concerns securities regulators such as the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC.) So far, the SEC has issued [statements cautioning against investment in ICOs](https://www.sec.gov/news/public-statement/statement-clayton-2017-12-11), and gone after a few [particularly egregious coin offering schemes](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-219),\nbut [not given clear guidance](https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/12/01/sec-gives-advice-on-icos-but-leaves-questions-unanswered/#26cd142398e1) as to how an ICO should be run so as to be compliant with securities law. Will it?\n\n*** With the SEC release any set of public, formal rules governing initial coin offerings by October 1, 2018? ***\n\nResolution is positive if the SEC makes public on sec.gov a document setting out written rules specifically pertaining to cryptocurrency ICOs, addressing issues including what sorts of coin offerings constitute securities, that are arguably actionable in guiding companies undertaking ICOs as to what is likely or unlikely to be permissible under what circumstances.\n\nAs there are several types (proposed, final, interim final, etc.) of rules the SEC can release, we'll require just that they appear on the [SEC rulemaking index](https://www.sec.gov/rules/rulemaking-index.shtml), which contains all of these, with a listed date prior to Oct. 1 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 654, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1530414748.552725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.4 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the last year the popularity of Bitcoin, and various other cryptocurrencies, rose dramatically. One factor that is sometimes overlooked, though, is the huge energy consumption that bitcoin mining - according to its current algorithmic structure - necessarily entails.\n\nDigiconomist has done a good job <a href=https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption>tracking the approximate energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain</a>. As of the writing of this question the annualized rate of energy consumption of Bitcoin is nearly 50 TWh/yr and a single bitcoin transaction requires an amount of energy that could power an average American home for over 3 weeks and emits over a third of a ton of CO2.\n\nDigiconomist also projects further increases in energy consumption, which would have energy consumption doubling before 2019.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will Digiconomist's estimate of Bitcoin's energy consumption reach 100 TWh/yr prior to 2019?</strong>\n\nThis question resolves positive if the value reported by <a href=https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption>Digiconomist</a> for 'Bitcoin's current estimated annual electricity consumption' is reported as over 100 TWh/yr for at least one day prior to January 1st 2019. There are daily updates, so this one should be quite easy to check.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 652, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1522603862.048451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1522603862.048451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5632594969592253 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2925703873652975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11161595350970598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33905283347288273, 0.7740582225217716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6351213730797269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.0, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.7250745315089938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2342695264399711, 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"2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was previously asked <a href=https://www.metaculus.com/questions/646>whether or not SpaceX's first crewed flight would take place in 2018</a>, yet a more interesting question in the scheme of things would be whether or not that first flight goes terribly wrong.\n\nEven if SpaceX's first crewed flight is delayed by one or two years, that will probably not have all to great an impact on the company's chance of surviving and achieving its long-term goal of building a city on Mars. The death of a crew member in a test flight on the other hand would have a much more devastating effect and may lead to the de facto shutdown of SpaceX. \n\nTherefore, it is asked:<strong>Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) lead to the death of a crew member?</strong>\n\nResolution time has been set to January 1st 2020. It is hoped the first flight will have taken place by then and hopefully the question can be resolved even earlier, should the test take place in 2018. 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "With the launching of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX passed a major milestone; yet an even bigger milestone would be bringing a human into space, something SpaceX is yet to do.\n\nThe Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is [scheduled for August 2018](http://spaceflight101.com/iss/iss-calendar/); the first manned flight is planned for December. There was also is a plan for SpaceX to fly two private individuals around the moon in late 2018, yet it seems that this could only occur after the first crewed test flight of Dragon V2, whatever its date ends up being, and it [will probably be the \"BFR\" that does such flights instead.](http://spacenews.com/spacex-no-longer-planning-crewed-missions-on-falcon-heavy/)\n\nThe first crewed flight will be a decisive moment in SpaceX's history. Should the launch succeed it would be a major step forward, yet if it should fail, killing the crew, it would be a much larger, and potentially lethal, step backwards for the company.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?</strong>\n\nShould the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. 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