Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6020
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The death of a crew member in a test flight on the other hand would have a much more devastating effect and may lead to the de facto shutdown of SpaceX. \n\nTherefore, it is asked:<strong>Will SpaceX's first crewed flight (presumably a test flight for Dragon V2) lead to the death of a crew member?</strong>\n\nResolution time has been set to January 1st 2020. It is hoped the first flight will have taken place by then and hopefully the question can be resolved even earlier, should the test take place in 2018. Should SpaceX not attempt to launch anybody into space by 2025, the question shall resolve ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 647, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563668811.045902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 295, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563668811.045902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 295, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.08105587202909133 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.521868541820526, 3.751803654111837, 3.280498869353563, 1.7165661646859642, 3.8088191291362197, 1.7619692827865394, 0.5919640253984679, 0.39476262353168173, 0.15481236727126316, 2.150136210154056, 0.011982158784515251, 0.9510133268013556, 0.031627507174292704, 0.0, 0.4040614239522057, 0.0007650540773286094, 0.10023122744741528, 0.0, 0.12272434907335628, 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4.375977318832846 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1560548136.376226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 285, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1560548136.376226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 285, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8498335889876429, 0.15016641101235703 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 50, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 449, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 646, "title": "Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "attempted-crewed-spacex-flight-in-2018", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-13T20:24:16.767082Z", "published_at": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.510212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:46:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 227, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 646, "title": "Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?", "created_at": "2018-02-13T20:24:16.767082Z", "open_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-18T00:19:08.979480Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-18T00:19:08.979480Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "With the launching of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX passed a major milestone; yet an even bigger milestone would be bringing a human into space, something SpaceX is yet to do.\n\nThe Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is [scheduled for August 2018](http://spaceflight101.com/iss/iss-calendar/); the first manned flight is planned for December. There was also is a plan for SpaceX to fly two private individuals around the moon in late 2018, yet it seems that this could only occur after the first crewed test flight of Dragon V2, whatever its date ends up being, and it [will probably be the \"BFR\" that does such flights instead.](http://spacenews.com/spacex-no-longer-planning-crewed-missions-on-falcon-heavy/)\n\nThe first crewed flight will be a decisive moment in SpaceX's history. Should the launch succeed it would be a major step forward, yet if it should fail, killing the crew, it would be a much larger, and potentially lethal, step backwards for the company.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?</strong>\n\nShould the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1532120571.911083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1532120571.911083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.10324258263828177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.100633850979266, 1.6701409765775523, 1.0366293840817191, 2.8400757507788033, 0.7594602029729066, 0.31010199240647995, 0.15053076314824199, 2.0640865547890774, 0.0, 1.3083594726230374, 0.09667429360137723, 0.2579157407090638, 0.0005810079793094558, 0.1781988692804648, 0.9472487961823339, 0.1420406315384996, 0.3967759363901454, 0.11158828564725454, 0.564044641823671, 0.7905078669647561, 0.009332854821576992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2877696140785219, 2.2699701616682693, 0.1559279923771701, 0.846327375254729, 0.628130753468759, 0.0, 0.29304968945280585, 0.17163511539927445, 0.000234438974452915, 0.37387294452638586, 2.290682969178656e-05, 7.780156686488326e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16542101107296417, 2.1148658543445356e-06, 1.6177595403181479e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6454675539213266, 0.0, 0.02675601339582845, 0.0, 0.003773749562731839, 0.0014699668521525387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010771350290968928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003640822615965721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01432237958681568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018518784328409126, 0.00024726727820839655, 2.7982157631155122e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.562686243946467e-05, 0.00014752377998805843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7674042014095237e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.775722222919121, "coverage": 0.999912665763763, "baseline_score": 75.36916354637528, "spot_peer_score": 16.162204617598096, "peer_archived_score": 15.775722222919121, "baseline_archived_score": 75.36916354637528, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.162204617598096 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1532078629.462954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1532078629.462954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8601254652650312, 0.13987453473496886 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 406, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 645, "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-13T00:44:52.232570Z", "published_at": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.028518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 645, "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", "created_at": "2018-02-13T00:44:52.232570Z", "open_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-18T02:34:21.100488Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-18T02:34:21.100488Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with \n[on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\n\n> Maybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\n\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\n\nWe'll play along, and ask:\n\n*** By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? ***\n\nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\n\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk *actually* eats a hat.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1556678329.577133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1556678329.577133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26488977718908374 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2737971090489268, 0.0, 0.10623149444673363, 0.0, 0.0030666371122678787, 0.0, 0.013062532700666108, 0.0, 0.08552326458673323, 0.04787102221272541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08271305037275602, 0.7145841754254348, 0.3807688593003492, 0.5867657374994121, 0.20628969672590622, 0.3761124863020259, 0.412222482146478, 1.6031249363608082, 0.7400778221725081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24493022341441736, 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"title": "Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?", "created_at": "2018-02-09T03:34:26.629868Z", "open_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-11-27T11:37:09.945294Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-11-27T11:37:09.945294Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-29T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-29T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-08-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-08-01T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the popular financial press, the [VIX Index] is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the [VIX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX#Interpretation) corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. At present, the VIX stands just above 21, so very roughly speaking, this means that the market ascribes a 30% chance that stocks will have changed in price by more than 6% by late December 2018. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the VIX briefly reached values above 80. This year, the VIX maxed out at [50.3 on February 6th](https://www.macroption.com/vix-all-time-high/), the day after the largest point-drop in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\n\nDuring the calendar year 2019, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 50?\n\n[VIX Index]:https://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixintro.aspx", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1564677702.211995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1564677702.211995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2985074296231283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3085682980639653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6833729785432241, 0.9444368072528766, 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "US recessions matter for investors because the dips in the market caused by recessions can cause years of flat profits. Pulling out right before a recession and jumping in at the bottom of a recession can result in significant gains.\n\nVarious indices exist to attempt to predict when a recession will hit the US.\n\nOne example is the [BCI by iMarketSignals.](https://imarketsignals.com/2018/no-sight-next-recession-business-cycle-index-update-212018/)\nThis index claims to predict a recession 10-20 weeks in advance. It currently shows no signs of a recession coming up.\n\nAnother indicator that precedes recessions by 1-1.5 years is the [spread on 10 and 2 year Treasury bonds.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)\nThis indicator also suggests we are at least 2 years out from a recession.\n\nLastly, the FED publishes an [explicit recession probability graph.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N)\nIt suggests we are not at the cusp of a recession, though indicators lag about three months, so this data is at best a confirmation of an ongoing decline.\n\nQuestion resolves positively if the NBER declares that a recession started at some point between Feb 10, 2018 and Jan 1, 2020 (inclusive).\n\nResolve date is more than a year and a half after the date in question because the NBER often takes a long time to declare recession boundaries ([recent cases involve an entire year to call the start of the 2008 recession.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession_in_the_United_States#Recession_declared_by_economists))", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1522518249.596213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1522518249.596213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4258187082144793 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.25203035975868304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4827205360804419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036985435363923645, 0.0, 0.012782418845274361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09874201812886338, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1307520525463295, 0.0, 0.3634255089425633, 0.2531102190416055, 0.0, 0.8425384586264789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5321943053309987, 0.0, 1.0367186489214928, 0.0, 0.0, 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"category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 639, "title": "Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* agree with the prediction of general relativity ?", "created_at": "2018-02-05T22:09:00.989952Z", "open_time": "2018-02-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-09T17:28:39.322462Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-09T17:28:39.322462Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T17:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-04-12T17:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-04-12T17:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-04-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-04-30T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) team is currently analyzing data that will allow for the imaging of the Sagittarius A*, the (presumed) supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy.\nSee [this article from Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/12/27/2018-will-be-the-year-humanity-directly-sees-our-first-black-hole/#4fab5b173a16) for an account of the basics.\n\nThe team hopes to test various aspects of the region and compare to the properties general relativity predicts for a [black hole of about 3.6 million solar masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagittarius_A*#Central_black_hole). We can ask:\n\n*** Will the inferred size of the Sagittarius A\\* object match predictions? ***\n\nresolution is negative if the EHT generates a measurement of the physical size of the Sag A* object that leads to a 3-sigma equivalent or more conflict with the size of a black hole with the best known measurements of the object's mass (incorporating uncertainties in both). Resolution is positive if EHT measures the size and it is consistent (within 3-sigma) with those other measurement and that model, and ambiguous if no good measurement (say one within a factor of two) ends up being made, or if not publication is made prior to start of 2019.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1525038819.619509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1525038819.619509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7627419203997933 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06621594298236935, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2025-09-05T17:29:00.905839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-06T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-02T19:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-02T19:53:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-06T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 638, "title": "Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?", "created_at": "2018-02-04T14:57:33.707134Z", "open_time": "2018-02-06T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-07T03:10:19.253002Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-07T03:10:19.253002Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-02T19:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-02T19:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-04-02T19:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the ongoing investigation by Mueller at the FBI regarding Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election, Rod Rosenstein is a key figure. [Given Jeff Session's recusal in the case, Rosenstein as acting AG is formally legally the highest official in the investigation,](https://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive/2017/05/rod-rosenstein-trump-sessions/526281/) and [the only individual currently with direct legal ability to fire (or otherwise instruct) Mueller.](https://www.wired.com/story/heres-what-happens-if-magnificent-bastard-mueller-gets-fired/) Thus any road to removing Mueller goes through Rosenstein.\n\nA recent memo released by Republican House Intelligence committee head Nunes has led to [fresh speculation that Rosenstein is being targeted](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/28/us/politics/rod-rosenstein-carter-page-secret-memo.html). We'll ask:\n\n*** Will Rosenstein still be the highest Justice Department official in the Mueller case on April 1? ***\n\nResolution is negative if as of April 1, 2018:\n\n- Rosenstein is fired or resigns or otherwise not acting AG in the case, or\n\n- Jeff Sessions is replaced by an AG who is not recused in the case\n\nand resolution is positive otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519850209.573151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1519850209.573151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.795800240631271 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"peer_archived_score": 6.710962000604368, "baseline_archived_score": 64.64664538497236, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.57746285108115 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519850209.59204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1519850209.59204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2315796324775481, 0.7684203675224519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 636, "title": "Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-metaculus-ico-this-year", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-02T16:19:01.807437Z", "published_at": "2018-02-05T21:33:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.604912Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-05T21:33:02Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-05T21:33:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 636, "title": "Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?", "created_at": "2018-02-02T16:19:01.807437Z", "open_time": "2018-02-05T21:33:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-06T00:27:42.278934Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-06T00:27:42.278934Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, [growing by a factor of 100 during 2017](https://news.crunchbase.com/news/2017s-ico-market-grew-nearly-100x-q1-q4/) with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to [~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017](https://pitchbook.com/media/press-releases/total-venture-capital-dollars-invested-in-2017-on-track-to-reach-decade-high), but the proportion is rapidly rising.\n\nCoin offerings have [three apparent contributors to their success.](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/10/explaining-the-new-cryptocurrency-bubble-and-why-it-might-not-be-all-bad/) First, blockchain-related startups are a dynamic field, and ICOs for coins that provide utility in blockchain-based ventures are thus getting attention and funding. Second, even in companies whose business is not centrally blockchain-based, ICOs are providing a novel form of crowd-based participatory investment, requiring much less effort and paperwork than venture funding so that investment and participation is open to a community of people rather than a relatively small number of early-stage investors. Third, of course, the fact that cryptocurrencies have been rapidly rising of late has led to a great deal of speculative purchasing of coins based on the (quite unreliable) assumption that they will appreciate.\n\nGiven that Metaculus is a crowd-based concern with a knowledgeable and (to some degree) crypto-savvy community, and already has an onsite token, it is a natural candidate for a coin offering. On the other hand, Metaculus is run by careful and risk-averse founders who are [intimately in touch with the extraordinary unpredictability and volaility of the cryptocurrency field.](https://www.metaculus.com/news/2018/01/11/cryptocurrency-competition-analysis/) And there is a good deal of regulatory uncertainty surrounding ICOs in the US and elsewhere... So what do you think:\n\n*** Will there be a Metaculus ICO in 2018? ***\n\nResolution will be positive if prior to start of 2019 a cryptocurrency identified with Metaculus is (a) listed on any of [icodrops](https://icodrops.com), [tokendata](https://www.tokendata.io/upcoming) or [coinschedules](https://www.coinschedule.com), or (b) if by credible report more than $10,000 total value in cryptocurrency or other currency has been exchanged by more than 25 people for a Metaculus-related cryptocurrency.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1520990824.390686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1520990824.390686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 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worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-this-flu-season-be-worse-than-the-2014-2015-season", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-02-01T19:38:50.371443Z", "published_at": "2018-02-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.331276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-02-05T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-03-02T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-03-04T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-03-02T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2018-02-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 635, "title": "Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?", "created_at": "2018-02-01T19:38:50.371443Z", "open_time": "2018-02-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-06T04:09:52.805466Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-06T04:09:52.805466Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-03-04T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-03-02T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-03-02T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-04T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-02T00:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As reported by <em>the New York Times</em>, this flu season has been especially brutal and is <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/26/health/flu-rates-deaths.html\">“now on track to equal or surpass that of the 2014-2015 flu season.”</a> which itself saw <a href=\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/flu-still-widespread-u-worst-season-since-2014-192245060.html\">34 million sickened and 710,000 hospitalized</a>.\n\nThe main culprit this year has been the H3N2 virus—the deadliest of the seasonal strains—but it’s been abetted by a downturn in recent years in the number of people getting their flu shots. \n\nWe ask: <strong>Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?</strong>\n\nThe question resolves positive if:\n<ul>According to the influenza surveillance report prepared by the Influenza Division of the CDC, the cumulative rate (per 100,000 population) of influenza hospitalizations over the FluSurv-NET surveillance area exceeds the 2014-2015 season peak of 64.2 for the “overall” age group.</ul>\n\nData available as of 2/1/18\n<a href=\"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FnxGVN1CvdsKnrRzVOwD_Ct-FBDgwS0-Y9tDZ4dGL3I/edit?usp=sharing\">indicate a cumulative rate of 41.9 as of the third week of 2018</a>, and a <a href=\"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uQnKzOeg6LKm5bkYckax6y-tLQiNsuBj/view?usp=sharing\">plot of cumulative rates is available here</a>.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519948087.438069, "end_time": null, 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"2018-02-04T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 176, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 634, "title": "Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?", "created_at": "2018-02-01T13:56:45.765974Z", "open_time": "2018-02-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-04T21:44:15.939420Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-04T21:44:15.939420Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-08-21T07:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-08-21T07:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-08-21T07:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was reported early in 2018 that [Oprah Winfrey was the bookmakers second favourite to win the presidency in 2020](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/08/odds-slashed-oprah-winfrey-presidential-bid-electrifying-golden/), and [polling suggests](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/23/politics/2020-trump-biden-sanders-winfrey/index.html) that she could have an advantage against Trump in a hypothetical match-up \n\nHowever, Oprah has stated that she does not intend to run for the presidency. This question asks:\n\n***Will she change her mind (or perhaps reveal her true intentions) by officially declaring her candidacy for 2020? ***\n\nResolution is positive upon widespread media reports of Oprah declaring her candidacy for the 2020 election. She is not required to win the election or the primary. She can even drop out of the race before a vote is cast. 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"scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As Mueller's investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 election continues, discussion has begun as to whether Trump himself will testify under oath.\n\nPresident Donald Trump [declared on Wednesday 1/24/2018](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/24/us/politics/trump-mueller.html) that he’s “looking forward” to being questioned — under oath — in the special counsel’s probe of Russian election interference and possible Trump obstruction in the firing of the FBI director. Trump said he would be willing to answer questions under oath in the interview, which special counsel Robert Mueller has been seeking but which White house officials had not previously said the president would grant. “I’m looking forward to it, actually,” Trump said when asked by reporters at the White House. As for timing, he said, “I guess they’re talking about two or three weeks, but I’d love to do it.”\n\nWhite House council has, reportedly, been looking to constrain and/or manage the terms of the any such interview.\n\n*** Will Trump in fact submit to an interview by Independence Day 7/4/2018? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by July 4 Trump testifies under questioning by Mueller or one of his team, in connection with the ongoing investigation. 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"2018-02-06T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-02-06T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-06T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-02-06T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX [is preparing for the first test launch of their new large rocket,](https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/24/16841580/spacex-falcon-heavy-rocket-static-fire-first-launch) the Falcon 9 Heavy. The launch attempt may take place as early as February 6, 2018. The intended payload is a Tesla roadster, being launched on a trajectory towards Mars.\n\n*** Will the launch succeed? ***\n\nTo be counted a success, the payload must be launched intact on a trajectory that leaves Earth's orbit. The launch must proceed using the rocket currently at the launch pad, and be carried out by the end of 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517884756.876484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517884756.876484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6970280735826773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26983551011781176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060174116678228654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15195867094493953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7235775488845366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03225826040151549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0308575304147265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08768704306713955, 0.15983966135753105, 0.6890577262636947, 0.28748887853341404, 0.0, 0.029661619281934278, 1.2976572407423723, 0.21884923586067093, 0.5997648572334316, 0.48861362000436115, 0.06296986882847432, 0.5727798973154846, 0.014767805358921643, 1.0411494466181086, 0.04827425444877179, 0.06549528002940233, 1.2427913663660923, 0.0, 0.7892598959620646, 0.0029426938060152243, 0.009675584690710932, 1.1623163571372501, 0.0025545491804088117, 0.20902877561094368, 0.027241077649050628, 0.8518348264971184, 1.2834226790650511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829691824243091, 1.4220614786344496, 0.06556400294974422, 0.12424350317442756, 0.0, 0.41066503912303093, 0.8769876952463889, 0.0, 0.5173597812495387, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.10100828826139664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23175769636537502 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.187763025775236, "coverage": 0.9972610486052019, "baseline_score": 44.48776540102494, "spot_peer_score": 6.50369585643354, "peer_archived_score": 6.187763025775236, "baseline_archived_score": 44.48776540102494, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.50369585643354 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517878696.977092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517878696.977092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4586957074200362, 0.5413042925799638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 624, "title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? 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(According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)", "created_at": "2018-01-24T06:17:05.676964Z", "open_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-02-02T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-02-02T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\n\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the *book* series. In it,\nthe Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\n\n*** By the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? ***\n\nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. 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"2018-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-03T17:50:00Z", "open_time": "2018-01-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"2018-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Astronomers sometimes write scientific papers that draw on extraterrestrial intelligence as an agent of explanation for celestial phenomena that are either novel or not immediately understandable. Moreover, when such hypotheses are invoked, they often gain considerable media focus. In contrast, similarly effective peer-reviewed appeals to the [Deus Ex Machina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_ex_machina) device are not frequently seen in terrestrial fields such as meteorology or solid-state physics.\n\nRecent examples that have risen to some prominence in the public eye include (i) [an article](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-637X/816/1/17/meta) suggesting that the star KIC 8462852 is an outstanding SETI target because its light curve is consistent with a swarm of megastructures, (ii) [the proposal](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/aa633e/meta) that fast radio bursts are associated with extragalactic light sails, and (iii) the [use of the Green Bank Radio Telescope](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/aaa6c9) to assess whether the interstellar asteroid 'Oumuamua is (as [memorably phrased](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/mysterious-space-rock-actually-alien-spaceship-ncna829501) by researcher Seth Shostak) a \"rock or a rocket\".\n\nGiven the clear public interest in alien-themed astronomical hypotheses, one can speculate whether further work of this nature will be deemed newsworthy by the New York Times. As a companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/620/another-nyt-news-story-about-ufos-this-year/) which touches on The Times' coverage of U.F.O.s within Earth's Hill Sphere, we ask:\n\nDuring the span from February through December of 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which intelligent extraterrestrial agency is discussed as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon? To resolve as positive, the story must concern astronomical observations of an object outside of the Earth-enveloping Earth-Sun L1 Jacobi equipotential, and must run in the main, \"A\" section of the print-version paper.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546297518.486488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546297518.486488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.10221650473961469 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.7410561456061995, 1.4484495511919269, 0.7005280449732196, 0.5754957237162456, 0.4275898717710916, 2.1598652532379536, 0.0034884312213303956, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4917985474888054, 0.956004920238847, 0.43175430771312556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3329581787875382, 0.0, 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"description": "" }, { "id": 620, "title": "Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "another-nyt-news-story-about-ufos-this-year", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-01-23T03:05:48.548177Z", "published_at": "2018-01-27T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.239459Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-01-27T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-03-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:48:00Z", "open_time": "2018-01-27T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 620, "title": "Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year?", "created_at": "2018-01-23T03:05:48.548177Z", "open_time": "2018-01-27T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-28T17:37:47.956612Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-28T17:37:47.956612Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-02-01T12:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "During 2017, various political developments surrounding the U.S. Executive Branch generated a fair number of weird and frankly jaw-dropping news stories. The drumbeat of news that would have seemed outrageous just a year or so ago may have had a hand in lowering the bar for *outre* items in the venerable [Gray Lady](https://books.google.com/books?id=tE4EAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA152&dq=%22the+gray+lady%22+%22new+york+times%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=tokrT_DMKK7aiQKwttTgCg&ved=0CDwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=%22the%20gray%20lady%22%20%22new%20york%20times%22&f=false).\n\nIn December of 2017, the New York Times gave front-page coverage to a bewildering investigative report of [Glowing Auras and Black Money: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. Program](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html), co-authored by Times journalists Cooper, Blumenthal, and Kean. While taking a generally neutral stance, the report and [associated coverage](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article) was nonetheless rather startling to readers steeped in the application of Occam's Razor. Indeed, the tone and content led some to notice a correlation with a general uptick in alien-themed astronomy papers and attendant media attention, including the \"Megastructures\" [posited to be orbiting](https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.04606) KIC 8462852, and the [publicized attempts](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/12/yuri-milner-oumuamua-interstellar-asteroid/547985/) to [monitor 'Oumuamua for artificial broadcasts](https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.02814).\n\nDuring 2018, will the New York Times publish a news story in which U.F.O.s or associated phenomena (within Earth's [Hill Sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hill_sphere)) constitute a substantial part of the narrative? 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null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Amazon [recently announced plans](https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=17044620011) to build \"HQ2\", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of [news articles](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/technology/wooing-amazon-second-headquarters.html), cities across the continent scrambled to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs over the next two decades. It is [widely expected](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/technology/amazon-headquarters-north-america.html) that the winning locale will offer significant tax incentives, but a range of tangible and intangible factors will likely play into the final selection.\n\nAmazon recently announced [a list](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/technology/cities-amazon-headquarters.html?action=click&contentCollection=Technology&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article) of twenty finalist cities and metro areas chosen from a list of 238 submitted bids. The selections lean heavily on the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard, and with the exception of Toronto, are all in the United States.\n\nThe downselect has naturally led to considerable speculation regarding Amazon's final choice. At the time of this question's creation, the Irish betting website PaddyPower has [Boston, Atlanta and Austin in the lead](http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_event&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&ev_type_id=22711&ev_id=13023353&force_racing_css=&ev_desc=Where+will+Amazon+build+their+Second+Headquarters%3f&AFF_ID=8531), with 2/1, 5/1, and 11/2 payoffs respectively, and with other finalists having odds ranging from 8/1 to 20/1. Given the desirable simplicity of a binary resolution, and given the nice ring of \"Austin or Boston?\", we ask:\n\n*** Will Austin TX or Boston MA be chosen as the site for Amazon's HQ2? ***\n\nResolution is by official Amazon announcement, and resolves as positive if the HQ is located in [the Austin TX, or Boston MA Metropolitan Statistical Area](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519589285.620468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1519589285.620468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36634039421496006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2505871467640058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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42.481959204091126, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.673566579156658 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517713505.486046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517713505.486046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7405824672284222, 0.2594175327715777 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 618, "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2019", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-01-20T23:25:07.053325Z", "published_at": "2018-01-23T23:25:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.072258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-01-23T23:25:06Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-01T12:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-01T12:44:00Z", "open_time": "2018-01-23T23:25:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 618, "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?", "created_at": "2018-01-20T23:25:07.053325Z", "open_time": "2018-01-23T23:25:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-24T23:28:10.448212Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-24T23:28:10.448212Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-07-01T12:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-07-01T12:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-07-01T12:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Two years ago, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- kicked the news media into high gear by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. Their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years, and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the planet count back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded more than half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for Planet Nine. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&refs=CITATIONS&db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. During the past two years, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been shown that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nIf it does exist, the most likely sky location for Planet Nine is roughly RA=2h, Dec=0 deg, near aphelion (although the uncertainty on this direction is substantial). The favored area of the sky is optimally visible during late autumn for a planet at opposition. At the most probable current location, the planet's current distance would be r~950 AU, and the expected V magnitude is 22.4. [A number of groups have engaged in the hunt](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jillianscudder/2016/10/22/astroquizzical-find-planet-nine/#7d17ed343256), and there is [something of an emerging consensus](http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-planet-nine-new-evidence-20161022-snap-story.html) that *if* the planet exists to be found, it'll be found sooner rather than later. As an example, Mike Brown [gave sixteen months](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3860036/Nowhere-left-hide-Planet-Nine-Astronomers-claim-mystery-world-just-16-months.html) fifteen months ago. This *fourth* update to our original, now closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/) is thus in order: \n\nWill the discovery by direct observation of a new solar system planet having characteristics substantially similar to those described in the Batygin-Brown paper, be announced in a peer-reviewed paper prior to July 1, 2019?\n\n(For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", the new solar system planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, an orbital period greater than 5,000 years, and an orbital eccentricity e > 0.25).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546212106.829829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546212106.829829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], 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the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?", "created_at": "2018-01-10T06:59:11.103541Z", "open_time": "2018-01-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-11T17:39:06.372447Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-11T17:39:06.372447Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-01-31T03:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-01-31T03:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-01-31T03:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-27T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-27T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Just what it says: resolves positive if on question close the Metaculus and community predictions are within 5% of each other, and negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517013985.902471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517013985.902471, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.279739383841488 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1746471262035432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0721362250514671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.60915664766044, 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"Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 615, "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", "created_at": "2018-01-06T19:34:09.929575Z", "open_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-09T17:54:00.430226Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-09T17:54:00.430226Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\n\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\n\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\n\n*** Will the number fall to zero before the next increase? ***\n\nQuestion resolves:\n\n- Negative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n\n- Positive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577827664.376248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 829, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577827664.376248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 829, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\n\nIt was <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/\">previously asked</a>, whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\n\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?***\n\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\n\nThe question resolves positive if either:\n<ul>\n<li>On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.</li>\n\nOR\n\n<li>There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100.</li>\n</ul>\n\n\nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\n\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763055760.301955, "end_time": 1784791480.790895, "forecaster_count": 342, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763055760.301955, "end_time": 1784791480.790895, "forecaster_count": 342, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25863729128646323 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.2803997873349706, 0.007657349172234652, 1.093769291997343, 1.5728907956387421, 2.826226076237516, 0.867690336323599, 0.11066720582599612, 0.13823122924557193, 0.02597807671741657, 2.35821197501689, 0.00934450276814259, 0.4935035249933593, 0.04829296581887528, 0.0033398587579227213, 1.2858001725338868, 0.6338249169236841, 1.292753558964947, 0.0003340318595531457, 0.20499912105930226, 1.4951112644586344, 0.1151915119224169, 0.03832467433696018, 0.19416952665678405, 0.060273974572214076, 2.2901758584009917, 0.897332291720693, 0.3225362162148014, 0.43080684028334315, 0.0, 1.896920287697489, 0.5776087482542532, 0.016477698160737384, 1.5030998352448117, 0.06424963021664938, 0.12525479488756175, 0.41608350755028484, 0.02940435572172082, 0.0, 7.067579998775335e-06, 1.1647675506962456, 0.19389989206965808, 0.09957661285384693, 0.0, 0.002896849916000315, 0.611356571751823, 0.0, 2.5280259342803934e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7492815998647884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027844029867754843, 8.141623416540363e-07, 1.741535240237174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1870838343166854, 0.0015779205125304003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03869792467921765, 6.017355297595501e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5277775047870696, 3.999957441363064e-05, 0.045683352122053336, 0.0, 0.007788863577819722, 0.10599079989261959, 0.15724895454067211, 0.023393373772464775, 0.0, 0.004979946900094694, 0.27607606943107343, 0.006721093290274276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16696869814072157, 0.0, 0.14870938856463098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037458537005775764, 0.0, 1.247632848333372e-06, 0.0, 0.4965209299131373 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288817.206418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 335, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288817.206418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 335, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9047577947544772, 0.0952422052455229 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 697, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\n\nIt was <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/\">previously asked</a>, whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\n\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products." } ] }