Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6040
{ "count": 6420, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6020", "results": [ { "id": 615, "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero", "author_id": 103764, "author_username": "aran", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-01-06T19:34:09.929575Z", "published_at": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.928660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 829, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 615, "title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?", "created_at": "2018-01-06T19:34:09.929575Z", "open_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-09T17:54:00.430226Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-09T17:54:00.430226Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\n\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\n\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\n\n*** Will the number fall to zero before the next increase? ***\n\nQuestion resolves:\n\n- Negative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n\n- Positive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577827664.376248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 829, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577827664.376248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 829, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4380512094356913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.263752152719581, 0.0, 1.965263440381152e-06, 0.0, 0.26367538657725265, 2.3610986533735636e-05, 0.0, 6.0457128168384896e-05, 0.0, 1.511883374000301, 0.0, 0.9831514698688237, 0.12410934370476544, 0.06744900897551251, 0.04261551387881851, 0.03556063629059455, 0.0004874382964792885, 0.00019961276248341836, 0.03013033505065405, 2.60936032663138, 0.8454041869228512, 0.18895251552323464, 0.8068986005052698, 0.5005891154690897, 1.6529245524106542, 0.0, 0.0037069972896358497, 0.21492776550289122, 0.0, 1.3563594149018807, 0.030374895537290038, 0.6328173602241485, 0.045040743061119305, 0.03353093799383875, 2.1456104495236348, 0.09459429503516686, 1.8428446161269327, 0.7697674292569723, 0.019271486047112082, 2.412215741616383, 0.29875505658598034, 1.9132220279632666, 0.7965875464874725, 0.32516902831587047, 2.5181340725412222, 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0.012713084826988175, 0.0, 0.004308674176210042, 0.0, 0.3605898473192065 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1574469840.676533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 808, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1574469840.676533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 808, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6126192422112586, 0.3873807577887414 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 114, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1190, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 614, "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?", "short_title": "Vegan Country by 2100", "url_title": "Vegan Country by 2100", "slug": "vegan-country-by-2100", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-01-02T17:44:28.910640Z", "published_at": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T17:42:50.930820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 343, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 614, "title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?", "created_at": "2018-01-02T17:44:28.910640Z", "open_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-25T19:21:58.696000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-25T19:21:58.696000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\n\nIt was <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/\">previously asked</a>, whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\n\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?***\n\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\n\nThe question resolves positive if either:\n<ul>\n<li>On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.</li>\n\nOR\n\n<li>There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100.</li>\n</ul>\n\n\nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\n\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763055760.301955, "end_time": 1784791480.790895, "forecaster_count": 342, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763055760.301955, "end_time": 1784791480.790895, "forecaster_count": 342, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25863729128646323 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.2803997873349706, 0.007657349172234652, 1.093769291997343, 1.5728907956387421, 2.826226076237516, 0.867690336323599, 0.11066720582599612, 0.13823122924557193, 0.02597807671741657, 2.35821197501689, 0.00934450276814259, 0.4935035249933593, 0.04829296581887528, 0.0033398587579227213, 1.2858001725338868, 0.6338249169236841, 1.292753558964947, 0.0003340318595531457, 0.20499912105930226, 1.4951112644586344, 0.1151915119224169, 0.03832467433696018, 0.19416952665678405, 0.060273974572214076, 2.2901758584009917, 0.897332291720693, 0.3225362162148014, 0.43080684028334315, 0.0, 1.896920287697489, 0.5776087482542532, 0.016477698160737384, 1.5030998352448117, 0.06424963021664938, 0.12525479488756175, 0.41608350755028484, 0.02940435572172082, 0.0, 7.067579998775335e-06, 1.1647675506962456, 0.19389989206965808, 0.09957661285384693, 0.0, 0.002896849916000315, 0.611356571751823, 0.0, 2.5280259342803934e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7492815998647884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027844029867754843, 8.141623416540363e-07, 1.741535240237174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1870838343166854, 0.0015779205125304003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03869792467921765, 6.017355297595501e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5277775047870696, 3.999957441363064e-05, 0.045683352122053336, 0.0, 0.007788863577819722, 0.10599079989261959, 0.15724895454067211, 0.023393373772464775, 0.0, 0.004979946900094694, 0.27607606943107343, 0.006721093290274276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16696869814072157, 0.0, 0.14870938856463098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037458537005775764, 0.0, 1.247632848333372e-06, 0.0, 0.4965209299131373 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288817.206418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 335, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288817.206418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 335, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9047577947544772, 0.0952422052455229 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 697, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\n\nIt was <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/\">previously asked</a>, whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\n\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products." }, { "id": 613, "title": "Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-12-31T16:00:14.034391Z", "published_at": "2018-01-04T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.774760Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-01-04T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-26T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-26T17:13:00Z", "open_time": "2018-01-04T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 613, "title": "Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?", "created_at": "2017-12-31T16:00:14.034391Z", "open_time": "2018-01-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-05T02:48:31.348690Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-05T02:48:31.348690Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-26T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-26T17:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-26T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-21T01:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Hubble Space Telescope was launched into low Earth orbit in 1990 and, after a servicing mission in 1993 in order to correct the telescope's optics, it began delivering pictures of the universe of unprecedented quality.\n\nThe question of what Hubble's replacement should be was soon posed and in 1996 the planning for Hubble's successor, the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope\">James Webb Telescope</a>, started. \n\nRegrettably, the project became plagued by <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues\">cost and schedule issues</a>. The launch year was set to 2007 in 1997 with a budget plan for 0.5 billion dollars; currently the budget is set at 8.8 billion dollars and the telescope is scheduled for launch between March and June of 2019.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will the James Webb Telescope be launched prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?</strong>\n\nFor positive resolution, the boosters of the rocket carrying the telescope must start firing before January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC, rather than the telescope having to have arrived at the L2 Lagrangian point by that time.\n\nThe closing time for the question has been set, due to lack of a better idea, to the 49th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon landings. \n\nResolution shall be by credible media report.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 613, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1532120526.92269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], 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144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 612, "title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?", "created_at": "2017-12-26T19:12:51.730099Z", "open_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-31T01:31:28.411163Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-31T01:31:28.411163Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-20T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T23:21:06.406772Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk <a href=\"http://www.spacex.com/mars\">announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet</a>, which he codenamed the \"<a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)\">BFR</a>\".\n\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\n\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png\">numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy</a>, even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\n\nTherefore, it is asked: ***Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?***\n\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\n\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\n\nResolution is by credible media report.\n\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563643081.303231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 313, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563643081.303231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 313, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8466703269839868 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.006622414669006425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04217334187734015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.6343102252798574e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3523720848213696e-05, 4.521615548165873e-06, 0.0, 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null, "open_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 610, "title": "Will a world war begin before 2151?", "created_at": "2017-12-25T17:30:30.774903Z", "open_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-30T23:45:52.575893Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-30T23:45:52.575893Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana\">Pax Romana</a> was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\n\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\n\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\n\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "We define a world war as a war that either,\n<ul>\n<li>involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years.</li>\nOR\n<li>involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years.</li>\n</ul>\n\nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\n\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\n\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind. Still, I urge people to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763586324.313308, "end_time": 1854839850.227, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763586324.313308, "end_time": 1854839850.227, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6056167310925595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.45256883639746015, 0.0, 4.016117279123224e-08, 0.0, 4.1077945619525906e-05, 0.0, 3.1780586047750866e-07, 4.42713696957195e-06, 0.0, 0.21455478077407597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005739942250116244, 3.960126176734835e-09, 0.41117147002308324, 0.24024356383206152, 0.8054067938008836, 0.01754793260361986, 0.0, 0.7745488573567921, 0.0610935015172097, 6.465063692711974e-05, 1.1804969756230729e-05, 0.0, 1.595001852843399, 0.0031832893856435845, 0.0, 0.12943766888045258, 0.0, 1.1628494151041475, 0.020229952204884584, 0.002320349650460663, 0.8522042724527763, 0.78095425192851, 0.02079984381344571, 0.12758658839569267, 0.0007285955373014494, 0.0, 0.6080381666528498, 1.5904053691543605, 0.0013113927592473035, 0.003598058964755815, 0.014214666675875846, 0.009145309931698096, 1.6386886479735931, 0.00046345928442370935, 0.0, 0.7068389144513489, 1.0567960141163488, 2.6973370405334993, 0.49770822236649565, 0.1525248606363429, 0.18530200366458485, 0.3747140569891628, 0.24924772065058742, 0.05526791746084669, 0.03554728259393748, 0.44835512821194634, 0.8710348927426934, 2.5298681869084145, 1.9783728792169954e-06, 2.4374722543028366e-06, 0.8223360119428897, 0.0, 0.20674346867749605, 0.2313868852900434, 0.3991524485630591, 0.001133630478903664, 0.17923563553862346, 2.729429985264421, 0.056000330480993746, 1.0561431526512515, 0.07423725452533639, 0.0189154698743532, 0.06844698221550635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17529283325412184, 0.002963666961807656, 2.01376031110164, 0.0289993910269165, 0.1406265735611116, 0.5100732870235848, 0.5495957388741172, 1.0099323779055358, 6.265891482587239e-06, 2.491113652283875e-05, 0.002167199396152022, 0.0, 1.5174176017280372, 0.0005966833872080623, 0.0, 0.0004361738147139297, 0.0, 0.5523728663754081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.449060688940809 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287761.387961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287761.387961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6429273019048055, 0.3570726980951945 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 814, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana\">Pax Romana</a> was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\n\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\n\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\n\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain." }, { "id": 608, "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-moores-law-end-by-2025", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-12-21T16:59:34.997585Z", "published_at": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.515505Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 203, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 608, "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", "created_at": "2017-12-21T16:59:34.997585Z", "open_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-01T05:06:14.405007Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-01T05:06:14.405007Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to <a href=\" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer \">Moore's law</a>, the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\n\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \n\nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\n\nTherefore, it is asked: <strong>Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?</strong>\n\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\n\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \n\nResolution shall be by credible media report.", "fine_print": 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"will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-the-private-key-of-a-2048-bit-rsa-public-key-in-2030", "author_id": 100558, "author_username": "ChristianKleineidam", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-12-16T15:09:00.418129Z", "published_at": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.167320Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, 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"Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 607, "title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?", "created_at": "2017-12-16T15:09:00.418129Z", "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-22T23:40:58.792229Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-22T23:40:58.792229Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\n\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \n\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\n\n*** By 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577819377.17381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577819377.17381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27258462439444076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.775923289891558, 0.0, 0.9094486314965385, 0.0, 0.013062532700666108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3590838621343031, 0.0, 1.0901232993648033, 0.0, 0.0022186213505800394, 0.39088007356647586, 0.0006986361686378893, 1.677768814443296, 0.0, 0.4755140591654543, 0.0, 0.004152744945805291, 1.6485249812820983, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.0, 0.10900026354437568, 0.02235567084255139, 1.8231256918974523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.610073048808317, 0.0, 0.1504905252336607, 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"2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T09:26:07.934113Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 256, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 606, "title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?", "created_at": "2017-12-15T14:35:39.116930Z", "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-21T16:18:31.224790Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-21T16:18:31.224790Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-30T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-12-30T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\n\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \n\nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762949897.857465, "end_time": 1769968042.118956, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762949897.857465, "end_time": 1769968042.118956, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018698966877829792 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.442793047295845, 13.749178240173064, 2.059541205722229, 0.020107797326680506, 3.365926066547913e-05, 0.018235550665070738, 7.337163520434926e-05, 0.0, 0.004876217480397299, 0.0, 0.006426373913263195, 0.8865088643424605, 0.0058067549735018745, 0.008432390077227311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5283270455594672e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.315340534599338e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13706597557464648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010067163834436208, 0.001474795782310816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5044361653866207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022592461241459126, 0.0015572362180321963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001829787165841672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.25663042812307e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016920710137725698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020353446876853167 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289736.213548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 254, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289736.213548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 254, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 425, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\n\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \n\nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042." }, { "id": 604, "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?", "short_title": "Black Hole Gravity Waves Detected before 2028", "url_title": "Black Hole Gravity Waves Detected before 2028", "slug": "black-hole-gravity-waves-detected-before-2028", "author_id": 101200, "author_username": "paulgabrielsen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-12-11T15:19:57.278406Z", "published_at": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-10T00:08:34.791475Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-11-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 200, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 604, "title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?", "created_at": "2017-12-11T15:19:57.278406Z", "open_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-23T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-11-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-11-30T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \r\n\r\nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\r\n\r\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \r\n\r\nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).", "resolution_criteria": "*This question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.*\r\n\r\n*(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763708633.603477, "end_time": 1765891761.971657, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763708633.603477, "end_time": 1765891761.971657, "forecaster_count": 145, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5920144341470166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.003845491405635243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034001843306179794, 0.0, 0.5755269139466415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7139840412572472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3426754299178025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09090467783430176, 0.0, 0.16647004668867824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6553115286413894, 0.0010642955478631963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8110423452594002, 0.0, 1.6762553641592164, 0.001409713194073842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5528136812124258, 0.0, 0.2424259234711521, 0.0, 0.010443747893098439, 2.1581439820255643, 0.9520581456226966, 0.40429922902671045, 0.07111292401397412, 0.0, 1.3382498642735672, 0.9962087310644031, 1.0032390945776708, 1.079886612084827, 0.04797265171055153, 2.3703585074452818, 0.004827673297657741, 0.4965054050839847, 0.1490639970993125, 0.05164918792277252, 0.06053488985300652, 0.06805621981813868, 0.03212143681398839, 0.5620907806343778, 0.002665995587439702, 0.6412737581125383, 0.0, 0.006015647134756919, 0.0, 0.2442749063623282, 0.7812142319901673, 0.3623383016663003, 0.0, 0.018698035193768964, 0.0008149247235797233, 0.5456777307479, 0.0, 0.036015830837092234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07771075623651086, 0.056497256783198405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08890490317052449 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289714.968514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289714.968514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.48145669339324704, 0.518543306606753 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 392, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \r\n\r\nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\r\n\r\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \r\n\r\nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/)." }, { "id": 603, "title": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?", "short_title": "Manned Mars Landing By 100 Years After Apollo", "url_title": "Manned Mars Landing By 100 Years After Apollo", "slug": "manned-mars-landing-by-100-years-after-apollo", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-12-10T10:54:06.213679Z", "published_at": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.122483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 279, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 603, "title": "Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069?", "created_at": "2017-12-10T10:54:06.213679Z", "open_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-13T20:39:42.384352Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-13T20:39:42.384352Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\n\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List\">manned mars missions were planned</a>, the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)) which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\n\n*** Will a human land on Mars by July 21, 2069? ***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a living human sets foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC (100 years after the feat was achieved on the moon on Apollo 11). For resolution, credible media reports will suffice. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\n\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1563668819.955612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1563668819.955612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8092406762988188 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.001131214222632457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5268103384629182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030186019949816126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2017-12-20T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-12-20T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Dating back to 1896, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has become almost synonymous with the overall value of the stock market. The index includes major industrial stocks such as DuPont, GE, Goldman Sachs, and ExxonMobile.\n\nRecently, the DJIA has been on a tear, and as of question writing stands at 24,211.\n\nThe ongoing stock run-up, however, has been dwarfed by the success of bitcoin, which is is currently priced at $17300, having risen from roughly $770 a year ago(!)\n\n*** Prior to January 31, 2018, will the numerical value of the dollar to bitcoin rate exceed the numerical value of the DJIA Index? ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1513771168.051256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1513771168.051256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 601, "title": "Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?", "created_at": "2017-12-06T21:39:18.161261Z", "open_time": "2017-12-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-11T17:46:21.294177Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-11T17:46:21.294177Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Tesla has promised revolutionary new technology to the auto industry, but it has also had trouble scaling up production and has consistently posted losses.\n\nDespite this, Tesla has a market cap of over 50 billion dollars as of the writing of this question. It is unclear how this number will evolve in the future, though.\n\nTherefore, it is asked:<strong>Will Tesla's market cap on the 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC be less than half of its market cap on the 31st of December 2017 at 11:59:59 PM UTC?</strong>\n\nData for resolution shall come from a google search for <a href='https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=TSLA&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=LGIoWsyEKtON8Qetm67IDA'>TSLA</a>. The question shall also resolve positive if Tesla files for bankruptcy before 31st of December 2018 at 11:59:59 PM UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514747429.626098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514747429.626098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3232574834844889 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1198806813150124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701448451617251, 0.01921436943183433, 0.11946929754074909, 2.0057025265739754, 0.0, 0.019342198969858133, 0.5708984753092851, 0.0, 0.18781150687723702, 0.02892019494468926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030257192801450332, 0.0, 0.3631009988528126, 0.0, 0.8145691660186479, 1.8711784801119093, 0.0, 0.0, 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{ "id": 600, "title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?", "created_at": "2017-12-06T00:11:47.195958Z", "open_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\n\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually *making* them, however: all these possibilities require *negative energy.* \n\nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\n\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But *macroscopic* amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\n\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what *fundamentally* forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\n\nSo instead we ask:\n\n*** Will a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? ***\n\nTo be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. 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"nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Dominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.\n\nAs of question writing, Papadopoulos [was charged](https://www.justice.gov/file/1007346/download), pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort [has been charged](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/us/politics/paul-manafort-indicted.html?_r=1) but pled innocent. Michael Flynn [has pled guilty to a single charge of lying to the FBI](http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/michael-flynn-court-filing/index.html), and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. \n\nThere is widespread sentiment that these relatively \"light\" charges were filed primarily to acquire cooperation, as well as [leave charges on the table that could be brought at a state level in the event of a presidential pardon.](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/07/no_matter_who_he_fires_or_pardons_trump_won_t_be_able_to_escape_state_attorneys.html)\n\nWhat happens next?\n\nJared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. have been at the center of campaign operations from the start, privy to many of the meetings and events that are under investigation. We ask:\n\n*** Will Donald Trump, Jr. be charged with a crime by June 17, 2018? ***\n\nAs for other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--trumpcharges), resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Donald Trump, Jr. has been formally charged prior to the date in question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1518664444.079249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1518664444.079249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23402595216764482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5548365461817811, 0.24409595276997034, 0.6890991651999969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09792807975184659, 0.0, 0.013770620434488363, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 597, "title": "Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?", "created_at": "2017-11-28T16:18:46.962788Z", "open_time": "2017-12-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-12-06T16:03:40.790468Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-12-06T16:03:40.790468Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-06-20T01:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-06-20T01:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-06-20T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "One of the [50 predictions](http://fortune.com/2017/11/20/predictions-2018-future-business/) made by Fortune magazine in November 2017 runs as follows: \"The court’s key swing vote, Anthony Kennedy, has a flair for the dramatic. He will cast the deciding vote in a 5–4 ruling in Gill v. Whitford that will declare the serpentine redrawing of election districts for political purposes to be unconstitutional.\"\n\n_Gill v. Whitford_ is concerned with Wisconsin's 2011 redistricting, which in the 2012 elections gave the Republicans 60% of the seats from 49% of the votes. A District Court decision ruled that the redistricting was in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution on the grounds that it deprived everyone but Republicans of \"equal protection\". The case was appealed to the Supreme Court, which is expected to decide it in mid-2018. The plaintiffs' case is based in part on various measures of gerrymandering, such as the so-called [efficiency gap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasted_vote#Efficiency_gap), and if the District Court's decision stands then it will likely make it easier for future gerrymandering cases to be brought on the basis of such measures.\n\nThe question resolves negative if, by the end of 2018, the Supreme Court upholds the appeal by Gill et al, and positive if, by the end of 2018, the repeal is rejected. In other cases, it resolves ambiguous.\n\nNote on resolution conditions and title: In principle the Supreme Court could reject the appeal but deliberately _not_ endorse any particular way of measuring gerrymandering, or could endorse some clear way of measuring gerrymandering that somehow doesn't reckon the Wisconsin redistricting to be a case of gerrymandering. I don't think these are likely enough outcomes for the slight divergence between title and resolution conditions to be a problem, but I'm willing to be persuaded.\n\n*(edited 12/21/17 plaintiffs -> defendants for consistency with rest of question.)*\n\n*(edited 1/10/17 for further clarifying wording.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519845911.070611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1519845911.070611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46257885474688026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9052303264796204, 0.019549436878526404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.003728821501368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0275524712565069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "One of the [50 predictions](http://fortune.com/2017/11/20/predictions-2018-future-business/) made by _Fortune_ magazine in November 2017 began as follows: \"A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU\".\n\nThat's rather specific, but the core of the prediction is clear: Theresa May's government will not survive to the end of 2018, and a quite different government will succeed it. _Is that right?_\n\nThis question will resolve positive if, at some point no later than the end of 2018, the United Kingdom has a Prime Minister who is not a member of the Conservative Party.\n\nIt will resolve negative if at the end of 2018 the UK's Prime Minister is a member of the Conservative Party, and if between now and then the UK has not had a Prime Minister who isn't.\n\nIt will resolve ambiguous in other cases.\n\nNotes on the resolution conditions: for positive resolution the PM needn't be Jeremy Corbyn, nor need it be a member of the Labour Party. The question will even resolve positive if Theresa May remains in power but leaves the Conservative Party. For negative resolution the PM needn't still be Theresa May, and there can be PM-less gaps if e.g. there is a general election between now and the end of 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1519828000.383075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1519828000.383075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3149876038276354 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48339600845740444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338162109370695, 1.6967545439663523, 0.0, 0.20519356765151792, 0.03231461620016842, 0.0, 1.0429570059600182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 0.0, 1.0041232288526327, 0.2853515621283832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6005576429099606, 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"increased-off-world-population-in-2050", "author_id": 100518, "author_username": "traviswfisher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-26T15:06:11.650859Z", "published_at": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T06:53:03.370900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 463, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \n\nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\n\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \n\nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \n\nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\n\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \n\nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\n\n***Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, is higher than 13.\n\nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 594, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763707972.653189, "end_time": 1771154922.203178, "forecaster_count": 434, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.951 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763707972.653189, "end_time": 1771154922.203178, "forecaster_count": 434, 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"2019-01-02T19:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-02T19:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The astronomical community, and increasingly, the broader public, have been [abuzz](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/22/science/oumuamua-space-asteroid.html?_r=0) over the recent passage of an interstellar asteroid through the solar system. The interloping object, now officially known as ['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua) (Hawaiian for \"messenger from the distant past\") was discovered by the [PanSTARRS](http://pswww.ifa.hawaii.edu/pswww/) monitoring system on October 19th, 2017. It was quickly confirmed to have a strongly hyperbolic trajectory (with heliocentric velocity v~26 km/sec at infinity), and [follow-up observations](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.05687.pdf) (see also, [here](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25020)) show that it has a rotation period of roughly seven hours, a reddish overall color, and a highly elongated overall shape. Assuming that 'Oumuamua has low reflectivity, its long axis is approximately 400m, and its mass is of order a billion kilograms. Curiously, no sign of coma has been detected, indicating that volatiles such as water ice are not exposed on its surface. These unusual properties have sparked [speculation](https://twitter.com/davidwhogg/status/933096319127732225) that `Oumuamua is a directed interstellar probe, and [various SETI-related efforts are underway](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=38844) to examine it.\n\nThe detection of `Oumuamua in the face of various observational biases suggests that [such objects may pervade the Galaxy](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017arXiv171102260L), with a number density estimated to be of order one per ten cubic astronomical units. We therefore ask: Prior to January 1, 2019, will one or more additional interstellar objects be observed passing within a sphere of radius 50 AU centered on the Sun?\n\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, a newly discovered interstellar object must either, 1. be reported in a peer-reviewed journal as having a hyperbolic orbit (eccentricity, e>1) prior to crossing a sphere of 50AU radius centered on the Sun, or 2. receive an [\"I\" designation](http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or both.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1530446078.089063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1530446078.089063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.42 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null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\n\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\n\nTo measure democracy, we will use the <a href=\"https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index\">Democracy Index</a> from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\n\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\n\n\nMore information can also be found on <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index\">Wikipedia</a>.\n\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?</strong>\n\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. 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"Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?", "created_at": "2017-11-20T23:52:06.009444Z", "open_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-24T19:48:37.636050Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-24T19:48:37.636050Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-04-01T04:00:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-04-01T04:00:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Some industry analysts [including Former GM boss Bob Lutz](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/17/tesla-is-going-out-of-business-says-former-gm-exec-bob-lutz.html) predict that the electric vehicle and solar energy producer will go out of business before 2019.\n \nThe company is having difficulty with mass-producing the Model 3 and has been spending about 1 billion a quarter on R and D. There is increasing competition from other automakers and the potential repeal of the EV tax credit will reduce consumer incentive to buy electric vehicles. The acquisition of troubled energy company Solar City as well as many other acquistions given the company a large amountof debt, and as of this date, Tesla has never posted a yearly profit. \n \nMany analyst point out that for every day that model 3 production is behind schedule the company is hemorrhageing cash, decreasing the likelihood it will find willing investors to raise the capital needed to keep the company afloat.\n\n*** Given these factors, what is the likelihood of Tesla going Bankrupt before 2019? ***\n\nResolves positive if Tesla files for bankruptcy before Jan 1, 2019.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1522531430.280217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1522531430.280217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09361401975373185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.524988056220622, 0.5788057418671145, 0.037497877674636027, 1.6286014239498372, 2.488735555909224, 0.2713519999147534, 0.04231486045179566, 0.011999061324947855, 0.49767719274783545, 0.7353164122011594, 0.37621216789979384, 1.4474389419965692, 0.02479840351300359, 0.0871503600470422, 4.537353858402677, 0.0, 0.05230810322002961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044867285692544154, 0.0, 0.00012025520300771239, 0.09690102016785244, 0.02300144797234026, 0.12315299784694007, 0.0, 0.010560364728571752, 0.3591679436194932, 0.0, 0.6575286390967408, 0.0, 0.0004099070066775883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034191807478455515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06587802523209195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002534457174884481, 5.305164495598117e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7531880250708634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.52962792592797, "coverage": 0.998956580586722, "baseline_score": 87.32260794284822, "spot_peer_score": 2.2510988965984766, "peer_archived_score": 6.52962792592797, "baseline_archived_score": 87.32260794284822, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.2510988965984766 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1522266489.992959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1522266489.992959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8977532071061065, 0.10224679289389355 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
