Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6060
{ "count": 6420, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6080", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6040", "results": [ { "id": 588, "title": "A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "a-surge-in-large-earthquakes-in-2018", "author_id": 100867, "author_username": "muzzle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-20T14:43:27.016535Z", "published_at": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.850487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:42:00Z", "open_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 588, "title": "A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?", "created_at": "2017-11-20T14:43:27.016535Z", "open_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-24T11:06:01.923159Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-24T11:06:01.923159Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-01T14:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In a [study](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074934/abstract) published in Geophysical Research Letters, Bilham and Bendick predict that, because of Earthโs slowing rotation, Earth will see a significant increase in large earthquakes in 2018.\n\nโThe inference is clear,โ [Bilham told the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-earthquakes). โNext year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes.โ \n\n\"Instead of an average of about 15-20 large earthquakes, we might see 25 or 30 in 2018\" [Quartz writes](https://qz.com/1133304/as-earths-rotation-slows-2018-could-see-a-spike-in-large-earthquakes/).\n\n*** Will there be a significant upsurge in large earthquakes predicted for 2018? ***\n\nThe question resolves in the positive if the number of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.0 as reported by USGS (e.g. [here](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22feed%22%3A%221456876261795%22%2C%22search%22%3A%7B%22id%22%3A%221456876261795%22%2C%22name%22%3A%22Search%20Results%22%2C%22isSearch%22%3Atrue%2C%22params%22%3A%7B%22starttime%22%3A%221900-01-01%2000%3A00%3A00%22%2C%22minmagnitude%22%3A7%2C%22orderby%22%3A%22time%22%7D%7D%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22terrain%22%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Afalse%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3Atrue%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B-85%2C0%5D%2C%5B85%2C360%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A%7B%22plates%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%7B%22map%22%3Atrue%2C%22list%22%3Atrue%2C%22settings%22%3Afalse%2C%22help%22%3Afalse%7D%7D)) in 2018 is greater than 25.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517439091.834023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517439091.834023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3644670619274404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8237971180797972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688961938503294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4468363403950001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7705036125663312, 0.0, 1.1167120023926744, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.0, 0.0008253441898962907, 0.0, 0.021671421535911298, 0.054167126145610874, 0.0, 0.24841363199485586, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2596434091051626, 0.8347641446335216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9457318874363891, 0.0, 0.8450340895251865, 0.0, 0.3837542165778665, 0.33169753922690387, 0.0, 0.3600504240909274, 0.0, 0.5285893258009321, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.11096823546370398, 1.824655062482866, 0.42663094011760505, 0.0814956572043637, 0.7766095266652526, 0.4632431883235791, 1.107087813413726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007021506238153396, 0.0, 0.5985977592841923, 0.03185388076940161, 0.0, 0.0020580228157463226, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006157382690986979, 0.4215923007633762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05590453649802504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005373855860101914, 1.0, 0.0, 0.138607890209693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.33622676383747, "coverage": 0.9986063088335645, "baseline_score": 39.0165908425126, "spot_peer_score": -0.37206152688038563, "peer_archived_score": 8.33622676383747, "baseline_archived_score": 39.0165908425126, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.37206152688038563 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517439091.852448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517439091.852448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8054319775935027, 0.19456802240649732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 585, "title": "Will there be at least 2หC of global warming by 2100?", "short_title": "2หC Global Warming by 2100", "url_title": "2หC Global Warming by 2100", "slug": "2-c-global-warming-by-2100", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-17T15:28:13.455800Z", "published_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:37:31.446208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 550, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "โจ๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "๐ฑ", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 585, "title": "Will there be at least 2หC of global warming by 2100?", "created_at": "2017-11-17T15:28:13.455800Z", "open_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-21T21:18:04.319000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-21T21:18:04.319000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 หC\" and if possible below 1.5 หC. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 หC above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2100, there has been a period of at least 5 consecutive years in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 หC greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\n\nData for resolution shall come from <a href=\"https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/\">NASA</a>, <strong>if possible.</strong> Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 หC. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762918640.676997, "end_time": 1785139915.930952, "forecaster_count": 545, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762918640.676997, "end_time": 1785139915.930952, "forecaster_count": 545, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9188634556627273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4176840449440457, 0.09797902078719739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045194570161024315, 1.0638969606463364e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013051490102048556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.190609305707021e-08, 0.017284700414429515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2046808526566511, 0.0, 0.0002008729206010569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015362718440389725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08302766236185863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004657844030773274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.077768054328625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1053768875499228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011642052509999654, 0.0022823297027963715, 0.00022454308026713144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05075907722418328, 0.0, 4.357180181480524e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0732218418483264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045993832811720735, 0.07953223326980217, 0.05576812293610383, 0.0001478376251982333, 1.7165362242682107e-09, 4.502968261462307e-07, 0.01988323948064305, 0.3497155181869785, 0.789214336545561, 0.0001161008903474898, 0.00012697953363427207, 0.3112586137223435, 4.4860826628289216e-05, 2.3076751449267256e-05, 3.472392402215454e-05, 0.07015317633436731, 1.5481218120896292, 0.00011613111988765162, 0.5807672058548697, 0.01377591253305607, 0.0006872196072266603, 0.7088320811981369, 0.22511193176851146, 0.006216467083268611, 0.9096067239913603, 0.8336274022569043, 4.605410190994002, 0.5790693560170417, 1.4161674572629186, 0.2589718008230691, 0.8787514410765933, 1.3311959403085907, 2.2718296687431874, 3.7681893933601334, 2.5893666072035737, 18.7964731797617 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288033.903287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 482, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288033.903287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 482, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.152121722391919, 0.847878277608081 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 47, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1070, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 หC\" and if possible below 1.5 หC. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 หC above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy." }, { "id": 584, "title": "Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?", "short_title": "Public domain day in the US in 2019?", "url_title": "Public domain day in the US in 2019?", "slug": "public-domain-day-in-the-us-in-2019", "author_id": 100518, "author_username": "traviswfisher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-16T22:25:37.070327Z", "published_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.349810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-05-16T21:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-16T21:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-02T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-02T04:30:00Z", "open_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 584, "title": "Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?", "created_at": "2017-11-16T22:25:37.070327Z", "open_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-22T00:45:51.411546Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-22T00:45:51.411546Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-02T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-02T04:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-02T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-05-16T21:22:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-05-16T21:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Copyright law gives the authors of creative works the exclusive right, for a period of time, to create and distribute copies of those works. After that time expires, the ownership of the works reverts to the \"public domain,\" which means that anyone can freely copy, use, and expand upon the original work.\n\nIn the United States, the limited term of copyright has been extended several times. The most recent extension, the Sonny Bono Copyright Act of 1998, has ensured that no additional published works have entered the public domain in the last 18 years. Under current law, the next batch of published works to enter public domain will be on January 1, 2019. On that date works published in 1923 will lose copyright protection.\n\nCritics of the Bono Act derisively named it the \"Mickey Mouse Protection Act\" based on the extensive lobbying of Disney for the legislation. They note that the last two times copyright has been set to run out on a large body of works, the law has been changed to extend the copyright period, giving effectively unlimited copyright duration.\n\n*** Will books published in 1923 enter the U.S. public domain on January 1, 2019? ***\n\nResolution will be positive if media reports in January 2019 indicate that generally all books published in 1923 are now in the public domain in the U.S. (Exceptions based on unauthorized publication or similar unique circumstances will not invalidate this.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 584, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1526504620.360044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1526504620.360044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], 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"Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. \n\nWe can use Google trends to analyze the interest in a topic over time. We are going to use the trend in interest in the <a href=\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F07_hy\"> Topic of Veganism</a> for this question. (Be careful to differentiate between the 'Topic' and 'Search Term', as Google makes a distinction between the two.)\n\nIn order to get a question that resolves in the not all to distant future, it is asked:\n\n***Will the month with the highest interest in Veganism in 2018 have a interest at least 25% greater than that of the month with the highest interest in 2017?***\n\nThe question resolves positive, if the highest peak (a datapoint represents the average interest over a month) before 2018 (note that this could be November or December 2017) on the [2004 - present graph](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F07_hy) gets reduced to a value of 80 or less (100/80=1.25) by a month (peak) with complete data in 2018.\n\nThe earliest possible resolution time should be 2018-02-01, and the last possible resolution time will be 2019-01-01.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 581, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514718544.418028, "end_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 580, "title": "Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?", "created_at": "2017-11-12T14:34:57.973663Z", "open_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-15T09:59:12.612364Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-15T09:59:12.612364Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-17T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-17T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-04-17T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The investigation by CIA lead Robert Mueller heated up dramatically with the [charging of Paul Manafort](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/30/us/politics/paul-manafort-indicted.html?_r=0). It's hard โ but interesting โ to try to predict where the investigation will go next. There has been much discussion of Michael Flynn, with [one report](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mueller-has-enough-evidence-bring-charges-flynn-investigation-n817666) that Mueller has in-hand enough evidence to charge him, but has not yet done so. \n\nMeanwhile, some discussion has turned to Jared Kushner. Per a [CNN article](http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/02/politics/jared-kushner-robert-mueller-documents-russia-investigation/index.html), \n\n> Mueller's investigators have expressed interest in Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and a White House senior adviser, as part of its probe into Russian meddling, including potential obstruction of justice in Comey's firing, sources familiar with the matter said.\n\nhowever, \n\n> Sources close to the White House say that based on their knowledge, Kushner is not a target of the investigation.\n\n*** Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime prior to Tax Day 2018 (April 17)? ***\n\nAs for other questions in [this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--trumpcharges), resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Kushner has been formally charged prior to April 17, 2018", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 580, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1515989845.630396, 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"created_at": "2017-11-09T14:42:40.245970Z", "open_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-15T10:00:15.682831Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-15T10:00:15.682831Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \n\nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the number of virtual reality headsets sold globally in 2025 exceeds the number of augmented reality headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an \"augmented reality headset\" is defined as a device which is portable and worn over the user's head, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as recognizing and interpreting objects in the user's real environment, and producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"virtual reality headset\" is defined as a device which is portable and worn over the user's head, and whose primary use is in virtual reality functions. \"virtual reality functions\" are defined as mostly or entirely covering the user's field of view, and tracking the user's viewpoint in 6 degrees of freedom, which the user can interact with through movement, voice, or other controls. \n\nIn the case that a device is capable of both AR and VR functionality, it will be considered an AR device only in the calculation of resolution. Devices such as smartphones in 2021, whose primary functions are not intended as AR or VR, do not qualify for the purposes of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733077210.219313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733077210.219313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.4008483336951119 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8302277665180524, 0.7691435628233401, 1.2520692715578596, 5.951487822909312e-05, 0.0, 1.268719848517648, 5.592024819719689e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008194795116889927, 2.7645820259442093, 0.0, 0.0004650940127247976, 0.0, 1.798860388453144e-05, 0.0018971540784506954, 0.0029622512338260566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015484816707201235, 3.5699510087373056, 0.6664717990312985, 0.0, 0.0014252780579966711, 0.0005963533144257991, 0.12224658208904864, 4.944302075673503e-06, 7.988321861497033e-05, 7.590870179266241e-06, 0.0, 1.9298028988904266, 0.611321618032286, 2.165987331571415e-05, 0.5705592196712566, 0.7099301351540478, 0.1845787153911252, 1.0957973239872502e-05, 0.4252903169788871, 0.6421407174693405, 7.927769898762699e-06, 1.3145653258794496, 1.1058590497216456, 0.0, 0.4393449453750221, 0.03732561164636286, 0.1564527142202731, 0.5869077662344592, 0.012623131629467595, 0.09102706961003668, 0.24756190681398021, 1.0084420394510316, 3.122406016401746e-05, 0.8177072056314922, 0.08412689091420288, 0.2596638955006963, 0.39989814669853885, 0.14452577934930202, 0.029343119198208173, 0.0, 0.7677818911021617, 0.2376077943299922, 0.0059358904182940245, 0.0, 0.2339959012055475, 0.6109713486494165, 0.24051740133758448, 0.05891380673002224, 0.5254983352316264, 9.861631067103396e-06, 0.0, 0.1744054886684761, 0.017520766108648, 0.10060507980889821, 0.0, 0.09433509357197788, 0.32781154198338147, 0.003925755397924355, 0.0006940248229013832, 0.16811716824019474, 0.0, 0.746806111296554, 0.0, 0.07282537894384872, 0.02405821541582, 0.13486415731315934, 0.27892157669288575, 0.0, 0.050362008643726155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42100064318199, 0.0, 0.00014071056442929608, 0.0, 0.11694781600199283, 0.0, 0.012461452815967694, 0.0, 0.0, 2.44771215616625 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289857.198592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 261, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289857.198592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 261, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7959150790740248, 0.20408492092597513 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 612, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \n\nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)" }, { "id": 578, "title": "Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "Human Extinction by 2100?", "url_title": "Human Extinction by 2100?", "slug": "human-extinction-by-2100", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-07T08:26:49.817900Z", "published_at": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T08:46:37.526758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 374, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1669, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "โฃ๏ธ", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "โจ๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "โข๏ธ", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 578, "title": "Will humans go extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2017-11-07T08:26:49.817900Z", "open_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-13T09:55:29.115000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-13T09:55:29.115000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no known humans alive on January 1, 2100. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors โ via a chain of live births from mothers โ circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count). Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763937768.886636, "end_time": 1785990933.705, "forecaster_count": 1661, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763937768.886636, "end_time": 1785990933.705, "forecaster_count": 1661, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.13727647026309556 ], "histogram": [ [ 29.090583386575197, 14.20368778640485, 2.8558836620254686, 2.1239021688960604, 0.8444542867693974, 5.788490061357283, 1.2205272825070392, 0.45300219875109693, 0.9946815048718216, 0.554315424683095, 3.440306854180421, 0.016221438413978828, 2.7198045473624838e-05, 0.01695888414729855, 2.2868040126034046e-10, 3.020287970305851, 0.11006356632985191, 0.0007480022913190215, 0.4785324962821424, 0.011524817972188486, 1.0640623035521721, 1.194247082245092e-08, 0.05111843846183044, 2.867223463493306e-08, 0.3082079949196399, 1.7110069281505302, 1.4034497097010684e-05, 0.9878048511855858, 2.971596102745675e-05, 0.0, 0.11336521448660503, 2.037272453345254e-15, 1.2066732461230065e-07, 0.035008922539256186, 0.0, 0.03844496717410672, 0.5234755131758329, 0.030620750543835448, 8.197602336250986e-09, 0.0, 0.24609702458452076, 0.0, 0.001451017158158695, 0.0, 0.007916566004323958, 0.00860537982527179, 6.999245824496843e-09, 0.0038175728123973213, 0.03408477202910996, 0.0006151077456091898, 1.8932530182368636, 0.18630266702423942, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2698184076328793e-07, 7.892717091302396e-11, 5.30484621131108e-07, 0.008369540893492228, 0.0, 0.011827497640402878, 0.0041522168909478956, 0.0, 6.173346151808058e-07, 9.788911889932368e-07, 0.0, 3.480187311279646e-07, 0.0027831380405966134, 0.008486663787858117, 1.3685710823578224e-13, 0.022461994765552308, 1.157909090046183, 0.0, 6.533057605606962e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006071230943840656, 0.0, 0.13891002115235626, 0.010208375833124747, 0.0, 1.1000718540132475, 0.0, 0.013863327741337287, 0.0, 0.010739495208465311, 0.016433993072427294, 0.0009279187703291655, 0.0, 7.865683253003596e-05, 3.5050690676416414e-05, 0.8885876299427089, 0.007080999813197196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014108814478196949, 0.0, 0.12367008265266487, 0.8735623945497872, 3.134610509686265 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289350.291762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289350.291762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.968168976054219, 0.03183102394578096 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 80, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7795, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'." }, { "id": 577, "title": "Which tine of the bitcoin fork will dominate?", "short_title": "BTC fork ?", "url_title": "BTC fork ?", "slug": "btc-fork", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-11-07T00:01:18.796889Z", "published_at": "2017-11-08T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.723153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-08T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-17T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-17T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T17:35:04.193000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T17:35:04.193000Z", "open_time": "2017-11-08T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 577, "title": "Which tine of the bitcoin fork will dominate?", "created_at": "2017-11-07T00:01:18.796889Z", "open_time": "2017-11-08T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-11-08T18:15:33.327978Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-11-08T18:15:33.327978Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T17:35:04.193000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T17:35:04.193000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-12-04T17:35:04.193000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-17T08:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-17T08:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On or around November 16, Bitcoin will undergo a hard fork into an original version and a \"Segwit2x\" version, in which the block size increases from 1MB to 2MB. As discussed for example in [this article](https://www.coindesk.com/understanding-segwit2x-bitcoins-next-fork-might-different/) there are a number of arguments for and against this fork, and thus in favor of the original and new version of bitcoin.\nWhat will the bitcoin market decide?\n\nWe'll ask:", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will the total market capitalization of the Segwit2x side of the fork, in dollars, exceed the capitalization of the original side on Dec. 1? ***\n\nResolution will be according to market opening values listed on coinmarketcap.com.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510877672.493413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510877672.493413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2842538733920743 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6385398988968611, 0.0, 0.06020913086307694, 0.38043555332875517, 0.48729195335887737, 0.9147633448549574, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3027241133987997, 0.0492373430437701, 0.46866138545748215, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5295330214323686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.6308407491715394, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023865884509062976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3345381198104085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510819341.014355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510819341.014355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9366884883716019, 0.06331151162839807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On or around November 16, Bitcoin will undergo a hard fork into an original version and a \"Segwit2x\" version, in which the block size increases from 1MB to 2MB. As discussed for example in [this article](https://www.coindesk.com/understanding-segwit2x-bitcoins-next-fork-might-different/) there are a number of arguments for and against this fork, and thus in favor of the original and new version of bitcoin.\nWhat will the bitcoin market decide?\n\nWe'll ask:" }, { "id": 576, "title": "Amazon to accept, or set a date to accept, Bitcoin payment by Dec. 1?", "short_title": "amazon uses bitcoin by dec 2017", "url_title": "amazon uses bitcoin by dec 2017", "slug": "amazon-uses-bitcoin-by-dec-2017", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-10-26T20:19:02.870324Z", "published_at": "2017-10-26T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.613151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-10-26T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T14:50:02.439000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T14:50:02.439000Z", "open_time": "2017-10-26T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 576, "title": "Amazon to accept, or set a date to accept, Bitcoin payment by Dec. 1?", "created_at": "2017-10-26T20:19:02.870324Z", "open_time": "2017-10-26T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-10-27T04:51:57.213002Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-27T04:51:57.213002Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T14:50:02.439000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T14:50:02.439000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-12-01T14:50:02.439000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rumors are swirling that [Amazon might start to accept Bitcoin payments](https://futurism.com/rumor-suggests-amazon-will-begin-accepting-bitcoin/). This would be a huge shift in the cryptocurrency world.\n\nWe ask:", "resolution_criteria": "*** By Dec. 1, will it either be possible to make purchases on Amazon, of at least some goods or services, using Bitcoin, OR will there be a firm date announced by Amazon prior to Jan. 1, 2018 when this will be possible? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by credible media report (or direct access) at least some non-Amazon-affiliate users can use Bitcoin to make purchases prior to Dec. 1 OR if an official announcement by Amazon declares that Bitcoin purchases will be possible on by a specific named date that itself is prior to Jan 1, 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510696745.440807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510696745.440807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12400670904493576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.704894417653534, 0.0, 1.0065036323388337, 1.1856124918947488, 1.3205713892515394, 0.4808111436442837, 0.39273462805229803, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0215862490986822, 1.5019199986303498, 0.14609385395765245, 0.00926838856481337, 0.2194278625504006, 1.7582492154911162, 0.0, 0.010901356066657217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11314398949421216, 0.0, 0.01945816775464467, 0.0, 0.012720747494406942, 0.8217628684205928, 0.32507244182524914, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1711754945605547, 0.0, 0.08332611069851885, 0.4953795980436523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35067473461578075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.960855828755167, "coverage": 0.9987674554874507, "baseline_score": 85.16064664854149, "spot_peer_score": -1.6454678713866275, "peer_archived_score": 2.960855828755167, "baseline_archived_score": 85.16064664854149, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6454678713866275 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510595648.398507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510595648.398507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8902699858348846, 0.10973001416511535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rumors are swirling that [Amazon might start to accept Bitcoin payments](https://futurism.com/rumor-suggests-amazon-will-begin-accepting-bitcoin/). This would be a huge shift in the cryptocurrency world.\n\nWe ask:" }, { "id": 574, "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035", "author_id": 103668, "author_username": "MathCat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-10-23T05:23:31.698561Z", "published_at": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.193116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 574, "title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?", "created_at": "2017-10-23T05:23:31.698561Z", "open_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-10-25T00:26:36.813689Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-25T00:26:36.813689Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\n\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\n\n> Recent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\n\nHere is the question:\n\n*** Will chess be weakly solved by 2035? *** \n\nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. 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"created_at": "2017-10-21T03:30:53.908720Z", "published_at": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.132295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 573, "title": "The End of NAFTA?", "created_at": "2017-10-21T03:30:53.908720Z", "open_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-10-26T14:47:34.290213Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-26T14:47:34.290213Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T22:59:17.428696Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial]( https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\n\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html, ) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\n\nWe hence ask: \n\n*** will the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? ***\n\nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. 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"vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 572, "title": "Will (some of) China's space station land on land?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-some-of-chinas-space-station-land-on-land", "author_id": 101200, "author_username": "paulgabrielsen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:50:04.021700Z", "published_at": "2017-10-22T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.542784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-10-22T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-05T15:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-05T15:51:00Z", "open_time": "2017-10-22T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 572, "title": "Will (some of) China's space station land on land?", "created_at": "2017-10-17T13:50:04.021700Z", "open_time": "2017-10-22T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-10-22T19:13:50.565661Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-22T19:13:50.565661Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-10-05T15:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-10-05T15:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-10-05T15:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since September 2016, Chinese space officials have known that their space station, Tiangong 1, was going to crash into earth, its orbit not-so-slowly decaying. The station, which has been in orbit since 2011, [could burn up in the Earth's atmosphere](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/10/16/chinas-first-space-station-will-soon-crash-to-earth-no-one-knows-where-itll-hit/?utm_term=.0812edd0369f) any time between now and April 2018. The time and location of the station's return to Earth is unknown.\n\nIt's also unknown how much material will survive re-entry and will land somewhere on Earth. When possible, space agencies direct re-entering spacecraft to an [oceanic \"graveyard\"](https://www.popsci.com/this-is-where-international-space-station-will-go-to-die) where they can splash down safely. But because Tiangong 1's re-entry is uncontrolled, it's possible that chunks weighing up to 200 pounds could land anywhere on Earth. With around 29% of the planet's surface as land, chances are small (though non-zero) that a sizable piece of debris could cause damage in inhabited areas.\n\n***Will significant pieces of Tiangong 1 touch down on land?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if, following the confirmed atmospheric destruction of the Tiangong 1 space station and prior to June 1, 2019, a piece of debris confirmed to belong to the station and massing > 1 kg is found as having impacted originally on land, according to credible news or governmental reports.\n\n*(Edit 11/3/17 to add cutoff date for finding the piece.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514743221.6632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514743221.6632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 570, "title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "short_title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "url_title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "slug": "a-major-united-states-earthquake-by-2023", "author_id": 101200, "author_username": "paulgabrielsen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-10-09T13:59:51.327368Z", "published_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.204591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 319, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \n\nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n\n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\n\n***Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1618452608.578776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 319, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1618452608.578776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 319, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.2101266592347513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1819404183580759, 0.0, 0.3117374016174825, 0.6061997851017213, 1.5262523150756808, 0.09856959524594354, 0.452219888600232, 1.4290409935794526, 1.1863061626840739, 4.171724183395633, 0.9179752006935673, 0.42521497756556825, 0.7888670099191826, 0.6316111486885345, 3.866530195374761, 0.20941507772055684, 2.54813554341499, 0.07929544242557228, 0.0154891877936172, 2.168505658382342, 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"2017-10-04T14:03:43.507605Z", "open_time": "2017-10-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-10-17T17:05:48.207405Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-17T17:05:48.207405Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-21T23:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-21T23:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-21T23:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-12-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.\n\nTwo Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.\n\nBeyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)\n\nWill anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:\n\n***By 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?***\n\n*This question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577766053.914603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577766053.914603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2036395659988522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3409578827127846, 0.0, 0.14233733272406118, 0.0033204133072331425, 0.8288613900757449, 0.05511502300475778, 0.5128716909485933, 0.0, 0.3818126812439192, 1.698491147624305, 0.17868155880234973, 1.2295906055252037, 0.0022255803236953193, 1.0643639457023852, 2.662693082933057, 1.231489739199986, 0.08742733666843278, 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\n\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\n\nThis question asks: \n\n*** By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? ***\n\nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\n\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1538340223.140104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1538340223.140104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12691766025331624 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.815253241501507, 0.28488600323550084, 1.627265269797658, 0.716246538014056, 2.7525729046753797, 0.743696401310248, 0.23387419514483546, 0.9673152928616057, 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Amazon [recently announced plans](https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=17044620011) to build \"HQ2\", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of [news articles](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/technology/wooing-amazon-second-headquarters.html), cities across the continent are scrambling to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs over the next two decades. It is [widely expected](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/technology/amazon-headquarters-north-america.html) that the winning locale will offer significant tax incentives, but a range of tangible and intangible factors will likely play into the final selection.\n\nA [recent article](http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/04/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-city-proposals/index.html) profiles the, ahem, ingratiation efforts that a number of small cities have been putting forth to become the hosts. Will extra efforts by relatively small cities win out over the resources available to larger cities? We'll ask:\n\n*** Will the new Amazon HQ be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area? ***\n\nResolution is positive if the official Amazon announcement places the HQ in a city of population of < 3M in its metropolitan area, per the [wikipedia list](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas) of 2016 census estimates. (This excluded the largest 18 cities).\n\n*(Edit 10/15 to change to metro areas and 3M population, 18 cities above the line.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 567, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1509530149.688085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1509530149.688085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4053652892535764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.08683796218503473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0185092459230694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.9489977208814941, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_scoring_time": "2017-10-06T18:02:23.497793Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\n\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\n\nThis question asks:\n\n***Will any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? ***\n\nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 566, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577840893.991044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577840893.991044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 177, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], 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"2017-09-28T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 565, "title": "2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves?", "created_at": "2017-09-28T13:38:36.902553Z", "open_time": "2017-09-28T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-28T21:08:19.229939Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-28T21:08:19.229939Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-03T15:24:36.586000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-03T15:24:36.586000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-03T15:24:36.586000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-03T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-03T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It's been a big couple of years for gravitational waves, with their first direct discovery announced [by LIGO](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211) in February 2016, and a host of nice followup results. Most (and very) recently, a detection of [merging black holes using LIGO plus Virgo](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20170927). There's also lots of speculation (and predictions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/525/ligo-announcement-of-a-neutron-star-merger-in-ngc-4993/)) that soon a neutron-star โ neutron-star merger detection will be announced.\n\nAs the detections seem firm and appear to have withstood scrutiny, talk of a Nobel prize [has begun.](https://twitter.com/bgreene/status/913105393009725440) The discovery is clearly prize-worthy, but how about the timing?\n\n*** Will the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for the discovery of gravitational waves using the LIGO instrument? ***\n\nNo requirement is places on which individuals are named, just on the cited discovery.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 565, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507012198.20393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507012198.20393, "end_time": null, 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"binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since mining cryptocurrency can essentially convert CPU/GPU time into money, and browsers will tend to run whatever javascript programs are handed to them, there is the possibility of sites using visitors' computers to mine cryptocurrency. \n\nIn two recent incidents, the [Pirate Bay was revealed to be mining bitcoin in lieu of ads](http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pirate-bay-hijacks-web-browsers-mine-cryptocurrency-monero-2017-9), and [Showtime's site was found to be mining Monero coins](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/09/25/showtime_hit_with_coinmining_script/) (probably not with the company's knowledge.)", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will there be another media-reported incident in which a website is revealed to be surreptitiously mining cryptocoins? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by Nov. 15 a credible media story or other report points to an event in which a website is found to have been mining cryptocurrency with no onsite indication that it is doing so. Website must register at rank < 2000 on [Alexa's rankings](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo) (chosen to include PirateBay and Showtime.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 564, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1508039519.659905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1508039519.659905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39124349624242294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3862084272492791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1617010714012754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.228277057924242, 0.0, 0.32449805599287956, 0.461405326914631, 0.0, 0.22518626811013776, 0.49680014682221674, 0.27114422392158133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7086608788239499, 0.6844047848430631, 1.1894404242613148, 0.0, 0.2472970147271662, 0.37572983480221733, 0.050430659560531874, 0.450475873495806, 0.818448039552085, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061894126969327355, 0.13717490894663273, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8630923821844549, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.9492264434649428, "coverage": 0.9923090005419288, "baseline_score": 23.083877593993915, "spot_peer_score": -4.585148555709328, "peer_archived_score": 0.9492264434649428, "baseline_archived_score": 23.083877593993915, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.585148555709328 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507820211.852744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507820211.852744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8400375586981056, 0.15996244130189438 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since mining cryptocurrency can essentially convert CPU/GPU time into money, and browsers will tend to run whatever javascript programs are handed to them, there is the possibility of sites using visitors' computers to mine cryptocurrency. \n\nIn two recent incidents, the [Pirate Bay was revealed to be mining bitcoin in lieu of ads](http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pirate-bay-hijacks-web-browsers-mine-cryptocurrency-monero-2017-9), and [Showtime's site was found to be mining Monero coins](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/09/25/showtime_hit_with_coinmining_script/) (probably not with the company's knowledge.)" }, { "id": 563, "title": "Will the US take military action in N. 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](http://hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg)){kind=link}