Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6080
{ "count": 6420, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6060", "results": [ { "id": 562, "title": "A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "a-living-thylacine-tasmanian-tiger-by-2020", "author_id": 101200, "author_username": "paulgabrielsen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-25T13:58:33.790884Z", "published_at": "2017-09-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.586875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2017-09-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 562, "title": "A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?", "created_at": "2017-09-25T13:58:33.790884Z", "open_time": "2017-09-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-29T01:53:28.783699Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-29T01:53:28.783699Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 1936, the last known thylacine (also called a Tasmanian tiger) died in a zoo in Hobart, Tasmania. After that the species was presumed extinct, but sightings of thylacines persisted in the following decades, suggesting that some thylacines may have survived.\n\nSeveral sightings have [allegedly captured footage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_M-SskpGi4) of the animal, and while the footage is compelling, it is not unambiguous. \n\nIn September 2017, [another thylacine video surfaced](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-06/tasmanian-tiger-sighting-claimed-by-trio/8877598), taken using an automated camera trap - although the identity of the animal in the video is a [point of controversy](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-07/rival-thylacine-group-sceptical-of-vision/8883178) among the thylacine community.\n\nIn fall 2017, biologist Bill Laurance plans to [deploy 50 camera traps](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23431240-500-its-eyes-shone-red-could-the-tasmanian-tiger-be-alive/) throughout the Cape York peninsula in Tasmania, hoping to catch a glimpse of an elusive thylacine - if any still exist.\n\n***Will a living thylacine be documented conclusively by 2020?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if credible, unambiguous evidence of a contemporary, living thylacine is reported by a credible news agency on or before Jan 1, 2020. Evidence may include, but is not limited to, clear photographic or video documentation of a living animal.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 562, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546288616.076386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546288616.076386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15107364416102667 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.9873402408022445, 1.3642752847893083, 0.0446297319186194, 0.1922138261357255, 3.0330747412239125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8538374621635252, 0.7113246376237179, 2.1458431311016124, 0.0, 4.8698955189427907e-05, 0.025683570036994337, 0.0, 1.1872690872324916, 0.0, 0.00014577056208057426, 0.6548094669151913, 0.0, 1.821726726107074, 0.091786936610927, 0.0, 0.07150732947351385, 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"spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1796896853974241 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1539731298.770257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1539731298.770257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8819544542776531, 0.11804554572234696 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 561, "title": "Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase \"Artificial Intelligence\"?", "short_title": "Trump mentions AI", "url_title": "Trump mentions AI", "slug": "trump-mentions-ai", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-23T16:56:50.811783Z", "published_at": "2017-09-26T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.256512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-26T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T00:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T00:50:00Z", "open_time": "2017-09-26T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 561, "title": "Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase \"Artificial Intelligence\"?", "created_at": "2017-09-23T16:56:50.811783Z", "open_time": "2017-09-26T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-27T06:05:24.868329Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-27T06:05:24.868329Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T00:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-04-10T00:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-04-10T00:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers. \n\nOne of them is almost certainly Artificial Intelligence. As of question launch, a search of Trump's [speech transcripts](https://transcripts.factcheck.org) at FactCheck.org shows no mention of \"Artificial Intelligence.\"", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will this continue until Dec. 31 2017? ***\n\nResolution is positive if \"Artificial Intelligence\" does not show up in FactCheck.org's transcripts on Dec. 31, 2017.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1509507389.920178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1509507389.920178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7793278225830319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01590012308576472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12971585974003152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2473710650506747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.055089962873426206, 0.4644052275483366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13901102316013342, 0.0, 0.02787040782505333, 0.30399229112632575, 0.15724883273568244, 0.3193625093223559, 0.0, 0.5576688763820327, 0.0, 0.9860032208160248, 0.5164960024539398, 0.0, 1.0908397484824006, 0.0, 0.09112396068789722, 0.7476152046295282, 0.37643329243262963, 1.8569626637503138, 0.31894579164604525, 0.14294776347577356, 0.6484149088826142, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.020800064696594383, 0.9320576437636137, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045796127425572486, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8371073538556144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.011305574381161, "coverage": 0.9990138369094232, "baseline_score": 52.638445163652634, "spot_peer_score": 2.9385226048310287, "peer_archived_score": 12.011305574381161, "baseline_archived_score": 52.638445163652634, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9385226048310287 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1508737732.321238, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1508737732.321238, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38142907246673197, 0.618570927533268 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers. \n\nOne of them is almost certainly Artificial Intelligence. As of question launch, a search of Trump's [speech transcripts](https://transcripts.factcheck.org) at FactCheck.org shows no mention of \"Artificial Intelligence.\"" }, { "id": 560, "title": "Will Trump go two more months without uttering the words \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency\"?", "short_title": "trump talks about crypto", "url_title": "trump talks about crypto", "slug": "trump-talks-about-crypto", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-23T16:54:31.238080Z", "published_at": "2017-09-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.509274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T16:31:36.915000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T16:31:36.915000Z", "open_time": "2017-09-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 560, "title": "Will Trump go two more months without uttering the words \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency\"?", "created_at": "2017-09-23T16:54:31.238080Z", "open_time": "2017-09-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-24T18:35:20.272778Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-24T18:35:20.272778Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T16:31:36.915000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T16:31:36.915000Z", "resolution_set_time": 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cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies. 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As of question launch, a search of Trump's [speech transcripts](https://transcripts.factcheck.org) at FactCheck.org shows no mention of \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency.\"" }, { "id": 559, "title": "Will Uber be operating in London on Dec. 1?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-uber-be-operating-in-london-on-dec-1", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-22T20:11:07.260758Z", "published_at": "2017-09-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.440512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T18:31:29.879000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T18:31:29.879000Z", "open_time": "2017-09-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 559, "title": "Will Uber be operating in London on Dec. 1?", "created_at": "2017-09-22T20:11:07.260758Z", "open_time": "2017-09-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-24T00:43:39.497201Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-24T00:43:39.497201Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T18:31:29.879000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-12-04T18:31:29.879000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-12-04T18:31:29.879000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There has long been tension between ride-share company Uber and many of the municipalities in which it operates. This had risen to a head recently as the city of London has [declined to renew Uber's license](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-britain/unfit-uber-stripped-of-london-license-idUSKCN1BX151).\n\nVery quickly, a petition has been launched to restore the license (and service). How will it all shake out. 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The species is located exclusively in the Gulf of California, limiting its potential habitats, and has been decimated by fishermen who employ highly effective [gillnets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaquita#Primary_threats) to catch the totoaba fish, also critically endangered and highly valued in Chinese markets. \n\nMexico has declared [bans on gill netting](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/17/world/americas/mexicos-president-rolls-out-plan-to-save-endangered-porpoise.html) in an attempt to save the vaquita, but populations have continued to decline. \n\nConservationists are hoping to develop a plan to bring [some vaquitas](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/world-s-most-endangered-marine-mammal-down-30-individuals?utm_source=sciencemagazine&utm_medium=facebook-text&utm_campaign=30vaquitas-10887) into captivity as a last-ditch attempt to save the species, but by the time such a plan is implemented, it may be too late.\n\n***Will the vaquita be declared extinct before 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Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\n\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \n\n***Will two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 557, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1575068900.341586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1575068900.341586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4089308228441854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5333919947611787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1358484121546608, 2.71156933753219e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.568045592937677, 0.8484002680692377, 0.0, 1.8010676179603247, 0.0, 0.8963152703416434, 0.0, 0.05666050727665699, 1.2232664025580458, 0.0, 0.9842177866077257, 0.0, 1.0643586599232724, 0.8555954685231117, 0.0, 0.8281138995694771, 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All of the largest, and probably all, cryptocurrency exchange in China have as of question writing announced that they will shut down, due to China's ban on cryptocurrency trading and ICOs.\n\nOther countries seem be less willing (and may be less able) to ban cryptocurrency exchanges, but it could happen. We ask:", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will a major cryptocurrency exchange outside of China shut down by Nov. 30 2017 citing a request or order from its host country's national government? ***\n\nFor these purposes we'll consider a \"major\" exchange to mean one with a daily trading volume of >$5 M as of 9/24/17, which includes about the top 40 exchanges. \"Shut down\" will mean that an official announcement by the exchange is released stating that all cryptocurrency trading will shut down by a specific date.\n\n*(Edit 9/24/17: changed \"major\" criterion to start at $5M not $50M in daily trading volume, which was a typo.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1508039460.867954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1508039460.867954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.410433980408684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.015643990111346248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05080900114132035, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14039373355087437, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8233191700385472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.6209613353060094, 0.0, 0.757750262606011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33171761475866546, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2458855081826026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.812986479619698, 0.2011093313353233, 0.34510884620159465, 1.1932537547192879, 0.5677130138662033, 0.28203990864161294, 1.280262413318388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35918636306610896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0164986489406944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45337725660330125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1539321045549336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38854550310770575, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05634097148935982 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.402583140287271, "coverage": 0.99701596430672, "baseline_score": 47.329874189856156, "spot_peer_score": 25.561593326978546, "peer_archived_score": 6.402583140287271, "baseline_archived_score": 47.329874189856156, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.561593326978546 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507999656.021199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507999656.021199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8858520349134753, 0.11414796508652468 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All of the largest, and probably all, cryptocurrency exchange in China have as of question writing announced that they will shut down, due to China's ban on cryptocurrency trading and ICOs.\n\nOther countries seem be less willing (and may be less able) to ban cryptocurrency exchanges, but it could happen. We ask:" }, { "id": 553, "title": "Short-term increase in Market Volatility?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-term-increase-in-market-volatility", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-14T13:04:47.288379Z", "published_at": "2017-09-14T13:04:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.138676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-14T13:04:05Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T13:26:30.886000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T13:26:30.886000Z", "open_time": "2017-09-14T13:04:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 553, "title": "Short-term increase in Market Volatility?", "created_at": "2017-09-14T13:04:47.288379Z", "open_time": "2017-09-14T13:04:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-15T02:37:24.953809Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-15T02:37:24.953809Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T13:26:30.886000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T13:26:30.886000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-17T13:26:30.886000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the popular financial press, the [VIX Index] is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. As of the opening of this question, the VIX stands just below 11, so very roughly speaking, this means that the market ascribes a 30% chance that stocks will have changed in price by more than 3.2% by mid-October 2017. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 12 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the VIX briefly reached values above 80. So far during 2017, however, stock volatility has consistently tested near-record low levels, but jitters last month surrounding the situation on the Korean peninsula briefly caused the index to jump by more than 50%. \n\nPrior to October 15, 2017, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 25?\n\n[VIX Index]:https://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixintro.aspx", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506838151.520075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506838151.520075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2650228092090979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2872230570033311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.1538804463707397, 0.17472138726266326, 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to [this article](https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/08/bitcoin-price-drops-following-report-that-china-is-going-to-shut-down-local-exchanges/?utm_source=tcfbpage&sr_share=facebook), China may have a plan to shut down local cryptocurrency exchanges.\n\nAs a short-fuse warmup to the upcoming [cryptocurrency competition](https://www.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=cryptocurrency2017) we ask:\n\n*** By September 15, will a any of the three Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges Yunbi, Dohonghua or Tuanbao cease operations? ***\n\nThese three choices are taken from [this story](https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-cryptocurrency-exchanges-delist-ico-markets/), which names these three as local exchanges that are attempting to comply with the recent [Chinese ICO ban](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/04/chinese-icos-china-bans-fundraising-through-initial-coin-offerings-report-says.html).\n\nResolution by credible media report or posted notice on one of the three exchange sites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1505371760.286717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1505371760.286717, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1582319898168864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Ted Koppel, of ABC News and Nightline fame, has been sounding the alarm about the vulnerability of the electrical grids in the U.S. to intentional sabotage. \n\nIn his book [Lights Out], Koppel argues that the U.S. grid(s) are both so interconnected and so fragile that a well-crafted attack could knock out power for a multi-state region, leaving residents without electric power for months. Some other recent relevant references are [here](https://www.wired.com/story/russian-hackers-attack-ukraine/) and [here](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/09/hackers-lie-in-wait-after-penetrating-us-and-europe-power-grid-networks/).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an attack with less dramatic impact will do:\n\n**Between September 15, 2017 and December 30, 2018, will an intentional attack on our electrical power infrastructure knock out power for more than 30% of residents in [one of the ten most populous U.S. cities]\nfor a period of 72 hours or more?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, there must be a public statement by either a law enforcement organization or a utility company confirming that the outage was not an accident. The attack may be physical or a hacking/cyber attack.\n\n[Lights Out]:http://www.amazon.com/Lights-Out-Cyberattack-Unprepared-Surviving/dp/055341996X/\n[one of the ten most populous U.S. cities]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1518641537.359754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1518641537.359754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11570540277404888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.029472973567129, 0.9417314444502731, 0.021471897549114355, 1.3189053645844901, 5.234762612399017, 0.5210247901408582, 0.31044540102450374, 0.7309344665365778, 0.0, 0.7854762467406926, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 544, "title": "Passing the torch: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value?", "created_at": "2017-09-02T04:21:17.871863Z", "open_time": "2017-09-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-16T14:50:27.193972Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-16T14:50:27.193972Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-02T15:05:56.596000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-02T15:05:56.596000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-11-02T15:05:56.596000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The NASDAQ stock market, which opened for trading in 1971, was the world's first electronic stock market. Its well known benchmark, the NASDAQ Composite Index, is a market capitalization-weighted measure of the value of all the domestic and internationally based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ market. The index includes large-cap names such as Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.\n\nCompanies on the NASDAQ index were the darlings of the late-90s dot-com bubble, and drove the index to an intra-day high print of 5132.52 on March 10, 2000. The bubble burst shortly thereafter, and the index dipped to a low of 1108.49 on October 10th 2002.\n\nRecently, the NASDAQ has reachieved its dot-com era highs. As of this writing, after the market close of September 1, 2017, it stands at 6,435.33.\n\nThe ongoing tech stock run-up, however, has been dwarfed by the success of bitcoin, which is is currently priced at $4833.05, having risen from roughly $1000 at the start of 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "Prior to December 1, 2017, will the numerical value of the dollar to bitcoin rate exceed the numerical value of the Nasdaq Composite Index?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506754947.209058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506754947.209058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.25885073055185737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2558710201941443, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 2.1091694084508243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4973417743957285, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.4253273367771832, 1.359715627228719, 0.9183948249798383, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 40.62237309940877, "coverage": 0.9996306766411404, "baseline_score": -164.5830792451639, "spot_peer_score": 28.172436610307653, "peer_archived_score": 40.62237309940877, "baseline_archived_score": -164.5830792451639, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.172436610307653 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506754947.221724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506754947.221724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9282126038161007, 0.07178739618389925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The NASDAQ stock market, which opened for trading in 1971, was the world's first electronic stock market. Its well known benchmark, the NASDAQ Composite Index, is a market capitalization-weighted measure of the value of all the domestic and internationally based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ market. The index includes large-cap names such as Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.\n\nCompanies on the NASDAQ index were the darlings of the late-90s dot-com bubble, and drove the index to an intra-day high print of 5132.52 on March 10, 2000. The bubble burst shortly thereafter, and the index dipped to a low of 1108.49 on October 10th 2002.\n\nRecently, the NASDAQ has reachieved its dot-com era highs. As of this writing, after the market close of September 1, 2017, it stands at 6,435.33.\n\nThe ongoing tech stock run-up, however, has been dwarfed by the success of bitcoin, which is is currently priced at $4833.05, having risen from roughly $1000 at the start of 2017." }, { "id": 542, "title": "A major \"theft\" of cryptocurrency in November 2017?", "short_title": "crypto theft nov 2017", "url_title": "crypto theft nov 2017", "slug": "crypto-theft-nov-2017", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:48:42.777645Z", "published_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.999816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-21T17:07:24.205000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-21T17:07:24.205000Z", "open_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 542, "title": "A major \"theft\" of cryptocurrency in November 2017?", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:48:42.777645Z", "open_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-15T19:51:19.629754Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-15T19:51:19.629754Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-21T17:07:24.205000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-21T17:07:24.205000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-11-21T17:07:24.205000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite its being carefully designed for security, piles of hundred of millions of dollars lying around \"in the bits\" are bound to attract some clever schemes, and there have been a few quite notable thefts/swindles/heists of cryptocurrencies.\n\nBiggest and most famous, probably, was Mt. Gox, in which per Wikipedia, \n\n> approximately 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been \"found\", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—were initially unclear.\n\nAnother major event was the [DAO heist](https://www.wired.com/2016/06/50-million-hack-just-showed-dao-human/). Again per Wikipedia, \n\n> users exploited a vulnerability in the DAO code to enable them to siphon off one third of The DAO's funds to a subsidiary account. On 20 July 2016, the Ethereum community decided to hard-fork the Ethereum blockchain to restore virtually all funds to the original contract.", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will there be a significant theft of cryptocurrency during November 2017? ***\n\nFor an event to count as positive resolution it should fulfill the following criteria:\n\n- The total amount stolen/swindled/siphoned should must exceed $500,000 in value (using the cost of the currency at the time of theft.)\n\n- The event should be generally described in articles as a \"theft\" or similar words. (Rather than, for example, a \"scam\" or a \"swindle.\") Thus for example a \"pump and run\" scheme would not count, but impersonating an exchange or company server to redirect funds would.\n\n- The theft itself, in terms of coin transfer, should take place between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30, inclusive.\n\n- Resolution is still positive if the funds are \"recovered\" in some way, e.g. as in Ethereum's hard fork.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1509479127.176508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1509479127.176508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.25609312907323734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5459423148501945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.08754746944441111, 0.0, 0.7420863134929953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16378110850070704, 0.6807438226985106, 0.7374671207167564, 0.30541821854539053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 1.3791010537308692, 0.0, 0.0, 1.181190931687672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3437101241405798, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.7965517069063007, 0.04492986066620649, 1.01435190594266, 0.0, 0.5409486251071569, 0.11935795955623035, 0.4925280170881631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20005070513194295, 0.38150119878791605, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09543546787520314, 0.14772949571888752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 47.07041531212737, "coverage": 0.9972618771963839, "baseline_score": -105.56611907421912, "spot_peer_score": 0.8038740447820762, "peer_archived_score": 47.07041531212737, "baseline_archived_score": -105.56611907421912, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8038740447820762 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1508380306.607828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1508380306.607828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8441602466586697, 0.1558397533413303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Despite its being carefully designed for security, piles of hundred of millions of dollars lying around \"in the bits\" are bound to attract some clever schemes, and there have been a few quite notable thefts/swindles/heists of cryptocurrencies.\n\nBiggest and most famous, probably, was Mt. Gox, in which per Wikipedia, \n\n> approximately 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been \"found\", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—were initially unclear.\n\nAnother major event was the [DAO heist](https://www.wired.com/2016/06/50-million-hack-just-showed-dao-human/). Again per Wikipedia, \n\n> users exploited a vulnerability in the DAO code to enable them to siphon off one third of The DAO's funds to a subsidiary account. On 20 July 2016, the Ethereum community decided to hard-fork the Ethereum blockchain to restore virtually all funds to the original contract." }, { "id": 541, "title": "More stories in the NY times about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings?", "short_title": "NY times stories on ICO regulation", "url_title": "NY times stories on ICO regulation", "slug": "ny-times-stories-on-ico-regulation", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:39:53.676253Z", "published_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.171717Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-16T03:07:28.826000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-16T03:07:28.826000Z", "open_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3179, "type": "question_series", "name": "2017 Cryptocurrency Contest", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2017-09-15T15:59:03.492000Z", "close_date": "2017-12-01T16:59:03.492000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532688Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-07T15:59:03.532694Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 541, "title": "More stories in the NY times about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings?", "created_at": "2017-09-01T14:39:53.676253Z", "open_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-09-16T18:43:31.595322Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-09-16T18:43:31.595322Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-16T03:07:28.826000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-16T03:07:28.826000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-16T03:07:28.826000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Regulation of virtual currencies and \"initial coin offerings\" by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a matter of considerable importance and concern.\n\nIn late July 2017, the S.E.C. 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Initial coin offerings\" on the NY times](https://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection®ion=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgtype=Homepage#/S.E.C.+initial+coin+offering/365days/) turns up two stories.", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will this query turn up four or more stories when run on October 15, 2017? ***\n\n(This would include the first existing stories, i.e. two or more new stories.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506835944.164517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506835944.164517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.39627540222664903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.330931913624719, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6421488754858117, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 1.2030045550483504, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8005694857991219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.110935927006045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.210656959330546, "coverage": 0.9867991377828921, "baseline_score": 42.81583394561055, "spot_peer_score": 3.758096678500496, "peer_archived_score": 13.210656959330546, "baseline_archived_score": 42.81583394561055, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.758096678500496 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506835944.184463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506835944.184463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9212388768202633, 0.07876112317973677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Regulation of virtual currencies and \"initial coin offerings\" by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a matter of considerable importance and concern.\n\nIn late July 2017, the S.E.C. [released an investigative report](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2017-131) that established that DAO tokens, a digital asset, are securities, and additionally communicated that \"U.S. securities laws may apply to offers, sales, and trading of interests in virtual organizations\". The assertion of U.S. jurisdiction over cryptocurrency tokens has done little to stem the growing number of initial coin offerings, and the announcement [leaves unclear](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-26/what-s-next-for-crypto-coins-as-sec-tames-wild-west-of-finance) what the legal consequences will be for initial coin offerings that occurred before the issuance of the report.\n\nAs of question writing, [a search of \"S.E.C. Initial coin offerings\" on the NY times](https://query.nytimes.com/search/sitesearch/?action=click&contentCollection®ion=TopBar&WT.nav=searchWidget&module=SearchSubmit&pgtype=Homepage#/S.E.C.+initial+coin+offering/365days/) turns up two stories." }, { "id": 538, "title": "Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion?", "short_title": "BCH market cap fade nov 2017", "url_title": "BCH market cap fade nov 2017", "slug": "bch-market-cap-fade-nov-2017", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-31T21:53:45.177785Z", "published_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.087330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-16T00:22:44.019000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-16T00:22:44.019000Z", "open_time": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The split of Bitcoin into Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash was [occasioned by two irreconcilable factions in disagreement over how Bitcoin should scale in the future.](http://fortune.com/2017/08/11/bitcoin-cash-hard-fork-price-date-why/)\n\nAfter an initial rally, as of question launch Bitcoin cash has been on a steady downslide while Bitcoin itself has been gaining.", 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Ethereum (by a significant margin) according to [coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves negative if on Dec. 1 the one-month plot of coin market capitalization plot [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) covering the month of November shows any currency other than Ethereum or Bitcoin crossing the Ethereum or Bitcoin capitalization curve. 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Cold fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion) of the late 1980's Fleischmann-Pons variety has long since fallen into disrepute, but it is interesting to recall that the coinage of the term actually dates to a [1956 New York Times article](http://www.nytimes.com/1956/12/30/archives/cold-fusion-of-hydrogen-atoms-a-fourth-method-pulling-together.html) describing the phenomenon of muon-catalyzed fusion. \n\nIn a nutshell, a [muon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon) replaces one of the electrons in a hydrogen molecule (generally of the exotic deuterium-tritium variety), allowing the two nuclei to draw far closer than the normal covalent bond would allow. With proximity thus achieved, the probaility of deuterium-tritium fusion is greatly increased. After a fusion reaction occurs, the responsible muon is free to catalyze further events until it either decays (its rest frame half-life is two microseconds) or is removed from action by \"sticking\" to an alpha particle produced by the fusion. Economic viability of the process for creating energy would require that a single muon catalyze approximately 500 fusion events before it decays, a rate of efficiency that exceeds best efforts by at least a factor of two or three.\n\nMuon-catalyzed fusion was originally observed in laboratory experiments and described in [this article](https://journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.105.1127) by Luis Alvarez et al., and was studied in depth by John David Jackson, he of Jackson's [*Electrodynamics*](https://www.amazon.com/Classical-Electrodynamics-Third-David-Jackson/dp/047130932X) fame. Jackson's [1957 Physical Review article](https://journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.106.330) is a standard reference, and remarkably, more than a half-century later, he summarized the history of the field in this [2010 review](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00016-009-0006-9).\n\nThe prospects for muon-catalyzed fusion as an energy source seemed moderately bright during the 1980s and 1990s, following the elucidation and observation of [molecular states of the deuterium-tritium-muon positive ion](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1967JETPL...5...91V). The field has largely stalled in recent years, however, as workable schemes for either producing muons more cheaply, or improving their catalytic efficiency have failed to emerge.\n\nAt the close of the 2010 article, Jackson seemed optimistic, writing, \"The effort for such a specialized field has been prodigious, especially in the last 30 years. On the applied side, ideas continue on how to increase the number of fusions per muon and design hybrid systems to get into the realm of net energy production.\" Certainly, it is fair to state that development of effective muon-catalyzed fusion for energy production would be a global game changer.\n\nPrior to Jan 1, 2020, will a peer-reviewed article appear in the mainstream physics literature which discusses a discovery of a physical phenomenon or which outlines an engineering technique that can either (1) increase the number of deuterium-tritium fusions per muon, or (2) decrease the energy cost of muon production to the point where a break-even reactor is feasible?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 528, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546297090.970697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546297090.970697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2904032213205713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.31781959343888977, 0.0, 0.005313788500141374, 0.7567875495527383, 0.04792995186424558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3966731141911124, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0376477651787916, 0.16036165193204036, 0.0, 0.042839650814824645, 0.0, 0.9085842027326947, 0.5438276275949664, 0.0, 0.6599822717069646, 0.0, 0.6016326041411628, 0.03453192803547644, 0.2394794112748967, 0.8169759660885071, 0.0, 0.4088495282428946, 0.0, 0.0, 1.631050955667382, 0.010488922435444322, 0.048428294021351945, 1.4246117588118665, 0.4186847677990752, 0.0, 0.5541154142974104, 0.09528689388306855, 0.6375136813109524, 0.0, 0.17216178117453548, 0.5351799653034296, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.9464393003703787, 0.5044513853022176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13509753112380862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42137912002218264, 0.13959566381946276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4752884891142051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021951255190573254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37291857732980915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18373971926206425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 42.84229872426613, "coverage": 0.9995138383209233, "baseline_score": -94.81590493617293, "spot_peer_score": -80.65573706260788, "peer_archived_score": 42.84229872426613, "baseline_archived_score": -94.81590493617293, "spot_peer_archived_score": -80.65573706260788 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1545087086.903748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1545087086.903748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8975256269737225, 0.10247437302627746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }