Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6100
{ "count": 6421, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6080", "results": [ { "id": 528, "title": "A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "a-revival-of-interest-in-muon-catalyzed-fusion", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-27T20:14:44.164458Z", "published_at": "2017-08-28T20:08:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.727919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-28T20:08:58Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-04T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-04T14:58:00Z", "open_time": "2017-08-28T20:08:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 528, "title": "A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?", "created_at": "2017-08-27T20:14:44.164458Z", "open_time": "2017-08-28T20:08:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-29T22:24:06.044819Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-29T22:24:06.044819Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2020-07-04T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2020-07-04T14:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2020-07-04T14:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Cold fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion) of the late 1980's Fleischmann-Pons variety has long since fallen into disrepute, but it is interesting to recall that the coinage of the term actually dates to a [1956 New York Times article](http://www.nytimes.com/1956/12/30/archives/cold-fusion-of-hydrogen-atoms-a-fourth-method-pulling-together.html) describing the phenomenon of muon-catalyzed fusion. \n\nIn a nutshell, a [muon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon) replaces one of the electrons in a hydrogen molecule (generally of the exotic deuterium-tritium variety), allowing the two nuclei to draw far closer than the normal covalent bond would allow. With proximity thus achieved, the probaility of deuterium-tritium fusion is greatly increased. After a fusion reaction occurs, the responsible muon is free to catalyze further events until it either decays (its rest frame half-life is two microseconds) or is removed from action by \"sticking\" to an alpha particle produced by the fusion. Economic viability of the process for creating energy would require that a single muon catalyze approximately 500 fusion events before it decays, a rate of efficiency that exceeds best efforts by at least a factor of two or three.\n\nMuon-catalyzed fusion was originally observed in laboratory experiments and described in [this article](https://journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.105.1127) by Luis Alvarez et al., and was studied in depth by John David Jackson, he of Jackson's [*Electrodynamics*](https://www.amazon.com/Classical-Electrodynamics-Third-David-Jackson/dp/047130932X) fame. Jackson's [1957 Physical Review article](https://journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.106.330) is a standard reference, and remarkably, more than a half-century later, he summarized the history of the field in this [2010 review](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00016-009-0006-9).\n\nThe prospects for muon-catalyzed fusion as an energy source seemed moderately bright during the 1980s and 1990s, following the elucidation and observation of [molecular states of the deuterium-tritium-muon positive ion](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1967JETPL...5...91V). The field has largely stalled in recent years, however, as workable schemes for either producing muons more cheaply, or improving their catalytic efficiency have failed to emerge.\n\nAt the close of the 2010 article, Jackson seemed optimistic, writing, \"The effort for such a specialized field has been prodigious, especially in the last 30 years. On the applied side, ideas continue on how to increase the number of fusions per muon and design hybrid systems to get into the realm of net energy production.\" Certainly, it is fair to state that development of effective muon-catalyzed fusion for energy production would be a global game changer.\n\nPrior to Jan 1, 2020, will a peer-reviewed article appear in the mainstream physics literature which discusses a discovery of a physical phenomenon or which outlines an engineering technique that can either (1) increase the number of deuterium-tritium fusions per muon, or (2) decrease the energy cost of muon production to the point where a break-even reactor is feasible?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 528, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546297090.970697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546297090.970697, "end_time": null, 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0.8975256269737225, 0.10247437302627746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 527, "title": "Will the upcoming \"Last Jedi\" augmented reality game be a success?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-upcoming-last-jedi-augmented-reality-game-be-a-success", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-27T16:57:54.771008Z", "published_at": "2017-08-28T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.228863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-28T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-09-12T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-12T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-06T17:21:37.853000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-06T17:21:37.853000Z", "open_time": "2017-08-28T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 527, "title": "Will the upcoming \"Last Jedi\" augmented reality game be a success?", "created_at": "2017-08-27T16:57:54.771008Z", "open_time": "2017-08-28T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-28T13:01:20.546741Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-28T13:01:20.546741Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-06T17:21:37.853000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-06T17:21:37.853000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-06T17:21:37.853000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-12T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-12T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Pokemon Go was the first highly-successful augmented reality (AR) game, being downloaded [more than 500 millions times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokémon_Go). But it will surely not be the last.\n\nIn the near future is a [\"Last Jedi\" AR game launching Sept. 1 2017](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2017/08/24/the-next-pokemon-go-star-wars-unveils-a-massive-last-jedi-augmented-reality-game/?tid=ss_fb&utm_term=.786c2988cc95). Unlike Pokemon Go, this game is largely marketing for the upcoming film, and the app has to be taken to participating stores, not random locations worldwide.\n\n*** Will this effort be a success or a flop? ***\n\nQuestion resolves positive if between Sept. 16 and Oct. 1 2017, the official Last Jedi App appears in one of the top 5 slots in in the iOS top charts (\"Paid\", \"Free\", or \"Top grossing.\")", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 527, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1505197660.205163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1505197660.205163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19141181189752032 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.185126790471556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 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8.233209934236303, "baseline_archived_score": 60.012619264349276, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.2796469288146817 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1504646508.519455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1504646508.519455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8557427135659312, 0.14425728643406882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 525, "title": "LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "ligo-announcement-of-a-neutron-star-merger-in-ngc-4993", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-25T20:12:57.405801Z", "published_at": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.453446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T05:49:17.118000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T05:49:17.118000Z", "open_time": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 525, "title": "LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?", "created_at": "2017-08-25T20:12:57.405801Z", "open_time": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-27T05:03:35.123929Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-27T05:03:35.123929Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T05:49:17.118000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-17T05:49:17.118000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-17T05:49:17.118000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Twitter is not necessarily the first-choice medium for publishing scientific results, but sometimes rumors turn out to be true. On August 18th, J. Craig Wheeler of UT Austin [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ast309/status/898596613328740352): \"New LIGO. Source with optical counterpart. Blow your sox off.\" Peter Yoachim at the University of Washington followed with [tweets](https://twitter.com/PeterYoachim/status/898616685086691328) suggesting that the responsible party was a pair of neutron stars in the 40 Mpc-distant, and otherwise highly obscure galaxy NGC 4993.\n\nAs detailed in this [Nature News article](http://www.nature.com/news/rumours-swell-over-new-kind-of-gravitational-wave-sighting-1.22482?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews&sf108932600=1), numerous major telescopes, including HST and Chandra have recently been pointed at NGC 4993. The rumored gravitational wave event, furthermore, may be associated with the short gamma ray burst event SGRB 170817A.\n\nWill a paper authored (or co-authored) by the LIGO Collaboration appear in a peer-reviewed journal prior to February 1, 2018 announcing with high confidence the detection of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506822619.426642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506822619.426642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7067111769851656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"created_at": "2017-08-24T14:16:16.579297Z", "published_at": "2017-08-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.793202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-01T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2017-08-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "As detailed in [this collection](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/elon-musk-goals/), Elon musk has a lot going on. In addition to being CEO of Tesla, he:\n\n- Is CEO of SpaceX;\n- Heads the \"Boring company\" digging tunnels for traffic and/or Hyperloop;\n- Provides some level of indirect support to Hyperloop;\n- Co-founded and oversees \"Neuralink,\" an effort toward direct brain interfaces;\n- Involved in AI through OpenAI (as cofounder) and other initiatives (e.g. funding Future of Life Institute);\n- Plays some role in SolarCity (now owned by Tesla).\n\nThis must be very tiring. Back in 2013, [Musk said](http://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-to-leave-tesla-motors-after-model-3-release/) that he would remain with Tesla through the successful launch of the model 3. This is now (largely) done, with Tesla's primary problem being producing enough vehicles to meet demand. An engineer at heart, will Musk really stay interested enough in building Tesla out as a car company to remain CEO?\n\nSpaceX, on the other hand, is in much more flux, with a number of projects appearing and disappearing regularly. Less time at Tesla could allow him a lot more focus on SpaceX and other endeavors that might be more fun than ramping up production facilities. So we'll ask:\n\n*** Will Elon Musk step down as CEO by Tesla prior to Sept. 1, 2018? ***\n\nResolution is by credible media report.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1513261581.718424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1513261581.718424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.23622604010667608 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.528914126324047, 0.0, 0.0105604232385152, 0.5742690842911822, 0.007750176029885828, 0.0009894441669191275, 0.04119840155833965, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5611652382159562, 0.0006773620771983868, 0.013563030845199806, 0.0, 0.09913066225976684, 2.6853220857577274, 0.17550653569893634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8995347702588431, 0.9044635035268616, 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"Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem", "created_at": "2017-08-23T14:09:03.312413Z", "open_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-29T11:37:07.652225Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-29T11:37:07.652225Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&singleton=true&cruz_id=rmont), UCSC*\n\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational *N*-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \n\n**Density Conjecture**: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\n\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_(mathematician)) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the *N*-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\n\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \n\n*** Will the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with *particular* (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1598772489.129366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1598772489.129366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3171491594344667 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4864712465365661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.763075775152323, 0.004054823278740879, 0.002324601321449946, 0.0, 0.04706262114429836, 0.45359808283128833, 0.6832930013687624, 0.11476618307289502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014266811661760572, 0.0015997720545810282, 0.0, 0.0995139282581611, 0.0509094210982425, 0.28655725649110636, 0.0, 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"created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 522, "title": "Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons?", "created_at": "2017-08-20T15:17:54.589492Z", "open_time": "2017-08-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-22T15:36:30.684440Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-22T15:36:30.684440Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-14T18:02:56.194000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-14T18:02:56.194000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-11-14T18:02:56.194000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kinetic lethal autonomous offensive weapons systems (KLAOWS) are a potential new stage in global armaments and warfare, as well as a new potential weapon of mass destruction. \n\nMany current weapons systems, such as military drones, are moving toward autonomy, and autonomous [\"swarms\" of aircraft have been tested.](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38569027) Meanwhile non-military drone technology continues with highly capable drones potentially equipped with facial recognition (and potentially [armable](http://www.newsweek.com/isis-using-drones-rigged-munitions-attack-advancing-forces-raqqa-628955)) and other narrow AI capabilities becoming cheaper and more effective. \n\nThere is significant concern about an arms race in these weapons developing. An [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/) coordinated by the Future of Life Institute and signed by > 3000 AI/ML researchers and 17,000 others argues that\n\n> If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow. Unlike nuclear weapons, they require no costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military powers to mass-produce. It will only be a matter of time until they appear on the black market and in the hands of terrorists, dictators wishing to better control their populace, warlords wishing to perpetrate ethnic cleansing, etc. Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.\n\nInternational negotiations to potentially limit KLAOWS are underway but dragging. A formal UN discussions scheduled for late August were [cancelled due to technicalities.](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/2017/05/diplomatsfalter/)\nOn August 20, an [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/autonomous-weapons-open-letter-2017) was released signed by a large number of robotics and AI company CEOs and others encouraging the UN to continue negotiations toward limiting use of KLAOWS.\n\nA meeting is currently targeted for November 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "*** Will a meeting of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) already established by the UN begin formal meetings at some point in November 2017? ***\n\nResolution is positive if formal discussions at the UN commence at some point prior to the end of November.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1508035552.984999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1508035552.984999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.704014175174977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.551687215997781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3082775478755993, 3.4207751243404982, 0.47808047862457376, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 0.35155630712470576, 0.026429544426075636, 0.006202750040840664, 0.1874900546392737, 0.016860822722490777, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18019833121809015, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.2444386673056035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6238600477268503 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -5.8454177001243535, "coverage": 0.9937623548531272, "baseline_score": 31.75006559360168, "spot_peer_score": -0.5309445971503671, "peer_archived_score": -5.8454177001243535, "baseline_archived_score": 31.75006559360168, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5309445971503671 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507997819.143833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507997819.143833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36491351112266635, 0.6350864888773337 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kinetic lethal autonomous offensive weapons systems (KLAOWS) are a potential new stage in global armaments and warfare, as well as a new potential weapon of mass destruction. \n\nMany current weapons systems, such as military drones, are moving toward autonomy, and autonomous [\"swarms\" of aircraft have been tested.](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38569027) Meanwhile non-military drone technology continues with highly capable drones potentially equipped with facial recognition (and potentially [armable](http://www.newsweek.com/isis-using-drones-rigged-munitions-attack-advancing-forces-raqqa-628955)) and other narrow AI capabilities becoming cheaper and more effective. \n\nThere is significant concern about an arms race in these weapons developing. An [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/) coordinated by the Future of Life Institute and signed by > 3000 AI/ML researchers and 17,000 others argues that\n\n> If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow. Unlike nuclear weapons, they require no costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military powers to mass-produce. It will only be a matter of time until they appear on the black market and in the hands of terrorists, dictators wishing to better control their populace, warlords wishing to perpetrate ethnic cleansing, etc. Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.\n\nInternational negotiations to potentially limit KLAOWS are underway but dragging. A formal UN discussions scheduled for late August were [cancelled due to technicalities.](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/2017/05/diplomatsfalter/)\nOn August 20, an [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/autonomous-weapons-open-letter-2017) was released signed by a large number of robotics and AI company CEOs and others encouraging the UN to continue negotiations toward limiting use of KLAOWS.\n\nA meeting is currently targeted for November 2017." }, { "id": 521, "title": "Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "clear-skies-during-totality-at-the-grand-tetons", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-20T06:23:57.378639Z", "published_at": "2017-08-20T06:20:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.944468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-20T06:20:15Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-08-21T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-08-21T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-08-22T04:10:30.133000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-08-22T04:10:30.133000Z", "open_time": "2017-08-20T06:20:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 521, "title": "Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons?", "created_at": "2017-08-20T06:23:57.378639Z", "open_time": "2017-08-20T06:20:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-21T03:01:26.724467Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-21T03:01:26.724467Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-08-22T04:10:30.133000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-08-22T04:10:30.133000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-08-22T04:10:30.133000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-08-21T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-08-21T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A popular (but frustratingly long-resolution) [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/) on Metaculus asks whether the total solar eclipse of June 25, 2522 will occur. Current odds stand at 95%...\n\nOf more immediate concern is *not* whether the eclipse of August 21, 2017 (which will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina) will occur, but *whether* the weather conditions at points along the path of totality will lead to clouded-out eclipses.\n\nGrand Teton National Park is perhaps the most iconic location along the coast-to-coast track of totality. As of Saturday evening, August 19, 2017, the weather forecast for the park at the time of totality calls optimistically yet nerve-wrackingly for \"mostly sunny\".\n\nAt the Jackson Lake location of the famous photograph of [The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972](https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap090302.html), will the eclipse be clearly visible during totality (1:36 PM MDT) on August 21?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1503327960.705389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1503327960.705389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7574741156878562 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1503327960.761521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.061452552866783416, 0.9385474471332166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 519, "title": "Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-evidence-emerge-for-the-frequency-of-solar-superflares", "author_id": 101120, "author_username": "VLT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-19T19:31:40.709198Z", "published_at": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.936381Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-01-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-13T13:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-13T13:20:00Z", "open_time": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 519, "title": "Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?", "created_at": "2017-08-19T19:31:40.709198Z", "open_time": "2017-08-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-06-13T13:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-06-13T13:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-06-13T13:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-20T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Carrington Event](http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/), the strongest solar storm on record, was no joke. \n\nShortly before Noon on September 1, 1859, amateur solar observers in England [noticed an intense burst of light](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/mnras/20.1.13) from a large sunspot group. Less than 20 hours later, a cloud of hot plasma ejected by the flare slammed into Earth's magnetosphere. Auroras were visible down to tropical latitudes, and telegraphs failed in spectacular fashion, reportedly delivering electric shocks to their operators. As discussed in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/), solar storms have the potential to impact power and communications systems, and storms at or above the Carrington level would have devastating effects. [A 2013 assessment by Lloyd's](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/library/natural-environment/solar-storm) estimates that if such an event were to occur today, damages to the US economy alone would range from 0.6 to 2.6 trillion dollars.\n\n[Solar flares](http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/sftheory/flare.htm) occur in association with magnetic field reconnection near the Sun's surface, and are most frequent during the active period of the solar cycle. \nThe occurrence rate of solar storm energies follows a relatively well-defined power-law distribution, and the Carrington event was estimated to have had energy ~ \\(10^{32}\\) erg. The frequency of trans-Carrington storms, however, depends on how far the distribution extends, which is unknown. \n\nSome constraint comes from geological records. Evidence from an overabundance of radioactive 14C detected in tree rings suggests the Sun [might have produced a small \"superflare\" in AD 775 and again in AD 993,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superflare) although [alternate explanations](https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7402/full/nature11123.html) for the anomalies are also viable.\n\nAdditional insight is gained by monitoring of the flares of nearby stars. Researchers using the LAMOST telescope [have reported](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160324/ncomms11058/full/ncomms11058.html) regular eruptions 10,000 times larger than the Carrington event on other stars. The team showed that these superflares are likely formed via the same mechanism as solar flares, and unexpectedly, they found ~10% of the superflaring stars have magnetic fields either comparable to or weaker than the Sun's, implicitly raising the possibility that our Sun could go amok with a massive flare.\n\nSuperflaring stars generally have short rotation periods (which generate higher levels of magnetic activity), but stars with rotation as slow as the Sun can apparently also produce superflares. [A study published in Nature](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v485/n7399/full/nature11063.html) showed a total of 187 superflares on 23 solar-type stars (5600-6000 K, rotational period > 10 d) having energies in the \\(10^{32}-10^{36}\\) erg range. A consideration of theoretical estimates in conjunction with the observations generated a [published hypothesis](http://pasj.oxfordjournals.org/content/65/3/49.full.pdf+html) that superflares of \\(10^{34}\\) erg occur once in ~800 yr on our present Sun. \n\n[An analysis of Kepler photometry](https://www.kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.jp/hinode-7/files/hinode7_14s6i01_Maehara.pdf) showed that superflares on solar-type stars (with rotational periods greater than 10 days) exhibit similar occurrence frequency distribution of those for solar flares. The analysis suggests, however, that all superflaring stars have starspot complexes substantially larger than those presently occurring during solar maxima. \n\nA reasonable summary of the current evidence suggests that the Sun can produce flares up to ~1000x the strength of the Carrington event, but such flares would require sunspot activity at levels substantially larger than those seen in the historical record. Given the stakes, it would be nice to have a better handle on the odds.\n\n**By July 2018, will additional significant evidence emerge suggesting that our Sun experiences \\(10^{34}\\) erg or larger flares on a time scale shorter than 1000 years?**\n\nPositive resolution requires a paper in the peer-reviewed literature by July 2018 in which a \"most likely\" or \"fiducial\" estimate of solar flares with energy \\(10^{34}\\) erg exceeds 1 per 1000 years. In addition, in order to add a [specious](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/) bit of flair to the question, positive resolution will *also* occur in the unlikely event that a flare with energy exceeding \\(10^{32}\\) ergs occurs prior to July 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1516424610.419583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1516424610.419583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.23823923157123045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07019706998454246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5949610715209219, 0.03355904935421398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4298622740039018, 0.28495119657571016, 0.5688445740680119, 0.0, 0.0, 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Google trends, according to Wikipedia, \"is a public web facility of Google Inc., based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume.\" Numbers are recorded since 2004. For the search term \"russia\" the month with the highest search volume in \"russia\" was February 2013 (meteor explosion), followed by March 2014 (Ukraine crisis). The graph for search volume over all time can be accessed by this URL: [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=russia](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=russia)\n\n*** Will the google trend graph for \"russia\", showing values of all time, will have a value of 100 for one month of 2018? (Which means that that month has the most search volume over the time range displayed.) ***\n\nIn 2018, the FIFA world cup will take place in Russia, an event guaranteed to raise global interest.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 518, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514658872.007734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514658872.007734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5947341937716054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007981569988183952, 0.48828817954787945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Michael Flynn be charged with a crime by Veteran's day?", "created_at": "2017-08-17T14:25:28.781679Z", "open_time": "2017-08-20T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-20T21:49:26.391019Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-20T21:49:26.391019Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-11-12T04:15:07.512000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-11-12T04:15:07.512000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-11-12T04:15:07.512000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-30T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-30T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The ongoing investigation into the potential role of Russia in the 2016 US Presidential Election has continued to heat up, with appointment by deputy Attorney General Rosenstein of former FBI director Robert Mueller.\n\nMichael Flynn was Trump's national security advisor for about three weeks starting Jan 20, 2017. Per Wikipedia:\n\n> Flynn was forced to resign as Trump's National Security Advisor after information surfaced that he had lied to Vice President Mike Pence about the nature and content of his communications with the Russian ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Kislyak. Flynn's tenure of just 24 days was the shortest in the history of the office. On April 27, 2017, the Pentagon inspector general announced an investigation into whether Flynn had accepted money from foreign governments without the required approval. Flynn initially refused to hand over subpoenaed documents to the Senate Intelligence Committee, pleading the Fifth Amendment against self-incrimination, but a compromise with the committee was worked out\n\nFlynn appears to be a subject of Mueller's investigation. As of August, the [NYT reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/04/us/politics/robert-mueller-michael-flynn-turkey.html?_r=0) that\n\n> Investigators working for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, recently asked the White House for documents related to the former national security adviser Michael T. Flynn, and have questioned witnesses about whether he was secretly paid by the Turkish government during the final months of the presidential campaign, according to people close to the investigation.\n\n*** Will Michael Flynn be charged with any crime by November 11, 2017? ***\n\nResolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Flynn has been formally charged prior to Nov. 11.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506702567.14886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1506702567.14886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18506970645640983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5312558548107307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3621212976535298, 0.003399429418515302, 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"scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The ongoing investigation into the potential role of Russia in the 2016 US Presidential Election has continued to heat up, with appointment by deputy Attorney General Rosenstein of former FBI director Robert Mueller.\n\nPaul Manafort was Trump's campaign manager from June to mid-August 2016, and was reportedly present at the June 9 meeting with Russian attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya and several others at Trump Tower.\n\nAs of August 2017, news is that Mueller has empaneled a grand jury in Washington DC, and recently [searched a home of Manafort](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/mueller-closes-in-on-manafort/536349/).\n\n*** Will Paul Manafort be charged with any crime by October 31, 2017? ***\n\nResolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Manafort has been formally charged prior to Oct. 31.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1505436432.12339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1505436432.12339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], 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"open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\n\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \n\nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\n\n***Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746204547.893946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746204547.893946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.33229228485467677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0953118857357413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023650965628028506, 0.23553024915524257, 0.0, 0.11886224522902453, 0.0375977518972076, 0.324981100487765, 0.719281198066938, 0.0006658743092757057, 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 512, "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?", "short_title": "AI system to do well on math SAT by 2025", "url_title": "AI system to do well on math SAT by 2025", "slug": "ai-system-to-do-well-on-math-sat-by-2025", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-08-12T00:03:03.281828Z", "published_at": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.120895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 394, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 512, "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?", "created_at": "2017-08-12T00:03:03.281828Z", "open_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-14T19:24:32.808497Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-14T19:24:32.808497Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\n\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\n\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\n\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\n\n*** By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? ***\n\nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. 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In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.\n\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. At present, the VIX stands just below 16, so very roughly speaking, this means that the market ascribes a 30% chance that stocks will have changed in price by more than 4.5% by mid-September 2018. \n\nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 12 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the VIX briefly reached values above 80. So far during 2017, and as recently as last week, stock volatility has consistently tested near-record low levels, but recent jitters surrounding the situation on the Korean peninsula have caused the index to spike by more than 50%.\n\nPrior to September 12, 2017, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 25?\n\n[VIX Index]:https://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixintro.aspx", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 511, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1504208346.84279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1504208346.84279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.290133235345514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08488945621387724, 0.561101776449919, 0.0, 0.0, 1.394717828743256, 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A summary of the situation can be found [on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Special_Counsel_investigation).\n\n*** Will any US citizen be jailed in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia? ***\n\nResolution is positive if anyone is jailed, even temporarily (e.g. for contempt of congress) in direct connection with or as a result of the Mueller-led FBI investigation, prior to August 15, 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 510, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510696896.981088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510696896.981088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.39802428703146764 ], 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citizens of all countries other than North Korea.\n\n- Any kind of counter-attack counts towards the \"100 fatalities\" figure – for example if North Korea is attacked by the US and responds by attacking Japan, any Japanese fatalities would count toward the 100.\n\n- The \"100 fatalities\" figure can be met by any/all fatalities coming from multiple countries within the same 24h period as long as each fatality is attributed to an action by the North Korean government.\n\nResolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by the US or UK government or United Nations. 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Already starting with a small electoral vote victory, successive scandals and policy defeats have dropped Trump's approval rating down to below 40% as of August 5th 2017, [according](http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx) to [most](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_aug4) [pollsters](http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/). Mueller's investigation will likely put further pressure on the Administration, and a possible recession with a currently strong economy would be disastrous. \n\nBut all is not lost for Trump. Approval ratings have been historically mean-reverting, with initially unpopular presidents slowly gaining popularity as their presidency continues. BIll Clinton had a [sub-40% approval rating](http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx) six months into his presidency, but eventually rebounded to 60% by the end of his presidency. Even after Ford's rating tanked after his pardoning of Nixon, he managed to (barely) crawl above 50% approval. By keeping further scandals to a minimum, maintaining a strong economy and earning some policy victories, Trump could slowly rebound over the next three years.\n\nOn a more morbid note, Bush's popularity skyrocketed after the 9/11 attacks in a \"Rally Around the Flag\" effect. Another major terrorist attack could likewise spike Trump's popularity, at least temporarily.\n\n**By November 6, 2018, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on [538's aggregate](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings) \"all polls\" approval tracker?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510156455.512007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510156455.512007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15141250769210265 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.529339143401012, 0.018559072767854706, 0.030830933517555805, 0.057193170883778566, 1.1646389057918927, 0.8108520837902014, 0.2326318799626671, 0.0012731901592275003, 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Several publishers have sued, decrying this as copyright infringement and piracy.\n\n[Recent research](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/sci-hub-s-cache-pirated-papers-so-big-subscription-journals-are-doomed-data-analyst) estimates that 69% of all scholarly articles ever published are archived on Sci-Hub, including 85% of all articles in subscription journals.\n\n*** Will Sci-Hub continue to offer free access to these articles for the next year? ***\n\nThis will resolve positively if Sci-Hub or a successor service offering a similarly large selection of journal articles is freely accessible online as of August 1, 2018.\n\nResolution will be based on the best efforts of site administrators to determine the outcome.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1511771887.879086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1511771887.879086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7602091676109887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004998515243729146, 1.0849244926398045, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0002004591728991022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.399402101397586, 0.9944833735951928, 0.0, 0.5137865828642532, 1.1667615464495793, 0.758913728502681, 0.13523523779904154, 0.09970212548914405, 0.9451300687273029, 0.7433190814145307, 1.3753723427651408, 0.8629091829187906, 0.042770226749533444, 0.4928458891949917, 0.1525366322021913, 1.2897406716201205, 0.41887619348356, 0.6715995900657319, 0.0, 0.1717578931516162, 1.3349909326357694, 0.6064357929087266, 0.0, 0.9065952309411648, 0.7128874377049441, 1.0070218202238808, 0.1488509132990612, 0.12636806714964371, 0.05510683421304619, 0.013548068849450218, 0.19688911349456537, 0.026951908029936068, 0.0, 0.013156083774982284, 0.5271371892169678 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.8408300702357243, "coverage": 0.9968333124588463, "baseline_score": 75.5716652833886, "spot_peer_score": 4.964349238806301, "peer_archived_score": 3.8408300702357243, "baseline_archived_score": 75.5716652833886, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.964349238806301 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1511771887.975797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1511771887.975797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38017813972441905, 0.619821860275581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
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