Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6120
{ "count": 6422, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=6100", "results": [ { "id": 501, "title": "Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sci-hub-be-online-in-august-2018", "author_id": 100518, "author_username": "traviswfisher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-27T20:47:08.207774Z", "published_at": "2017-07-30T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.259543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-30T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-11-27T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-27T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-02T06:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-02T06:46:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-30T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 501, "title": "Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?", "created_at": "2017-07-27T20:47:08.207774Z", "open_time": "2017-07-30T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-08-01T03:59:26.612656Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-08-01T03:59:26.612656Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-02T06:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-02T06:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-08-02T06:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-27T21:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-27T21:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The endeavor known as \"Sci-Hub\" has been archiving and making freely available scholarly articles from a wide swath of publishers. Several publishers have sued, decrying this as copyright infringement and piracy.\n\n[Recent research](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/07/sci-hub-s-cache-pirated-papers-so-big-subscription-journals-are-doomed-data-analyst) estimates that 69% of all scholarly articles ever published are archived on Sci-Hub, including 85% of all articles in subscription journals.\n\n*** Will Sci-Hub continue to offer free access to these articles for the next year? ***\n\nThis will resolve positively if Sci-Hub or a successor service offering a similarly large selection of journal articles is freely accessible online as of August 1, 2018.\n\nResolution will be based on the best efforts of site administrators to determine the outcome.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1511771887.879086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1511771887.879086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7602091676109887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004998515243729146, 1.0849244926398045, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0002004591728991022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.399402101397586, 0.9944833735951928, 0.0, 0.5137865828642532, 1.1667615464495793, 0.758913728502681, 0.13523523779904154, 0.09970212548914405, 0.9451300687273029, 0.7433190814145307, 1.3753723427651408, 0.8629091829187906, 0.042770226749533444, 0.4928458891949917, 0.1525366322021913, 1.2897406716201205, 0.41887619348356, 0.6715995900657319, 0.0, 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"forecast_values": [ 0.38017813972441905, 0.619821860275581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 499, "title": "Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "successful-test-of-anti-insect-laser-fence", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-24T20:15:04.582998Z", "published_at": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.661305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-18T18:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-18T18:24:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 499, "title": "Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?", "created_at": "2017-07-24T20:15:04.582998Z", "open_time": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-18T18:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-18T18:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-18T18:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-12-15T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Since 2005, Florida citrus growers have been plagued by a disease affect their trees called citrus greening disease, or [huanglongbing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citrus_greening_disease). The disease, which has dramatically impacted the state's citrus production, is carried by two species of psyllid, a flying sap-sucking insect.\n\nTo protect the groves, the company [Intellectual Ventures](http://www.intellectualventures.com) has developed a technology originally intended to control malaria-carrying mosquitoes - an array of lasers that zap the psyllids out of the air. \n\nHear me out.\n\nThe array is called the [Photonic Fence](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603721/insect-zapping-laser-fence-prepares-for-first-enemy-contact/), and uses cameras to identify only the target pest - psyllids in this case. Any psyllid within the laser's 30 m horizontal or 3 m vertical range is subject to a burst of laser light that heats the psyllid up just enough to kill it.\n\nAccording to the article:\n\n> This summer in Florida, the Photonic Fence will initially be tested against psyllids released inside a screen house, an enclosure of fine mesh used to protect trees from pests. After that, and tests to prove it can avoid targeting bees, the device will be used to replace one wall of a screen house and get its first shot at wild psyllids. Makagon wants to then use several devices to make a perimeter around a block of citrus trees.\n\n***Will the Photonic Fence prove its effectiveness?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if prior to October 15 2018, a credible news story or corporate press release from Intellectual Ventures or some another entity owning or licensing the rights to this technology states that states that a test, similar to that described above with a single wall open to the outside, and successfully excluded psyllids from the test grove. (If a fraction is reported, it should correspond to more than 90% of psyllids being killed between entry and when they are able to land on a plant, or some comparable level of success – i.e. like US missile defense, and occasional success is helpful but not really what's desired.)\n\n*(Edited 11/14/17 to allows another related organization to do the test using IV's IP.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1513295496.826466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1513295496.826466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.35293051644547874 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.25514192587030693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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0.9954529047018786, "baseline_score": 27.07621502506989, "spot_peer_score": 8.595031260327548, "peer_archived_score": 15.470188892534324, "baseline_archived_score": 27.07621502506989, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.595031260327548 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1512504598.401636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1512504598.401636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8431573116723491, 0.15684268832765091 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 498, "title": "Increased formal recognition of animal sentience?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "increased-formal-recognition-of-animal-sentience", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-24T19:50:06.620851Z", "published_at": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.585853Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:19:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 498, "title": "Increased formal recognition of animal sentience?", "created_at": "2017-07-24T19:50:06.620851Z", "open_time": "2017-07-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-01-01T14:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-01-01T14:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Philosophers and scientists have long debated the question of whether nonhuman animals experience consciousness. Because animals cannot communicate to humans in language, they constitute an extreme example of the [philosophical problem of other minds](http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/other-minds/). One tradition in the science of animal behavior (influenced by early twentieth-century behaviorism) focuses on external, observable responses, avoiding the potentially anthropomorphic attribution of behavior to internal subjective states. But [recent work in neuroscience](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christof-koch/consciousness-is-everywhere_b_1784047.html) suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released \"[The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf),\" arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes.\n\nThe widespread recognition of nonhuman animal consciousness could have far-reaching implications for the scientific, legal, industrial, and social norms that govern the roles of animals in human society. Since 2009, the [European Union](http://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/index_en.htm) has legally recognized animals as “sentient beings,” establishing rules for the protection and welfare of all farmed animals. And recently times, Quebec passed a new animal welfare law on behalf of the Animal Amendment Bill, which now [legally recognize animals as sentient beings](http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/barbara-cartwright/quebec-animal-welfare-law_b_8749820.html).\n\nThe [U.S. Animal Welfare Act](https://www.nal.usda.gov/awic/animal-welfare-act), in contrast, currently does not recognize animals as sentient or conscious beings; it also excludes birds, farm animals, mice and rats used for research, and all cold-blooded animals from its jurisdiction.\n\nAccording to the [animal protection index](http://api.worldanimalprotection.org/about) established by the World Animal Protection organization, [the USA ranked at level D](http://api.worldanimalprotection.org/country/usa) (A being the highest) when judged by the country’s effort in recognizing animal protections. For the U.S., the low ranking is mostly due to legislation only partially recognizing animals as sentient beings. [Many other countries were also ranked D and below](http://api.worldanimalprotection.org).\n\nWill we see more effort by countries that are at ranked D and below in the near future in lifting the legal status of animals being nothing more than a property?\n\nWe'll put this as a precise question using the [WAP's index,](http://api.worldanimalprotection.org/indicators#Recognition) which currently lists 9 countries with a B or A grade on \"Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience.\"\n\n*** At start of 2019, will more than 10 countries be listed with B or A grades on this index? ***\n\nFor resolution to be positive, with WAP index must be updated at some point in the 6 months prior to Jan 1, 2019, and on Jan 1, 2019 show 11 or more countries with B or A grades on this index. 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Trump is currently under investigation by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III. Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, in the wake of President Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey. (Rosenstein's boss, Attorney General James Sesssions, had already recused himself from the investigation.)\n\nPresident Trump has made clear his displeasure in Mueller's investigation, and in some of the possible directions the investigation may take. 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 495, "title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?", "created_at": "2017-07-20T20:30:37.391331Z", "open_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-25T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\n\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\n\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\n\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\n\n**Will a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?**\n\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577855758.644378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6874119130309204, 0.3125880869690796 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 165, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 494, "title": "Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-metaculuss-predictions-significantly-improve-in-the-next-6-months", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-20T13:54:19.344459Z", "published_at": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.774994Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-02-04T22:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-02-04T22:57:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 494, "title": "Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?", "created_at": "2017-07-20T13:54:19.344459Z", "open_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-25T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-02-04T22:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-02-04T22:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-02-04T22:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-10-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "One of the goals of Metaculus is to produce well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts. According to the [Metaculus FAQ](http://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/): \"Like many mental capabilities, prediction is a talent that persists over time and is a skill that can be developed. By giving steady quantitative feedback and assessment, predictors can improve their skill and accuracy, as well as develop a quantified track record.\" So, as the size and experience of the Metaculus community increases so should the quality of the predictions generated by it.\n\nRecently, Metaculus assembled an [interactive display of its track record so far.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/) \nSeveral metric are given, including the [Brier score](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score), which is essentially the mean square difference between the prediction and the actual outcome:\n\n\\[\n\\mathrm{BR}=\\frac{1}{N}\\sum_{i=1}^{N}\\left(p_{i}-o_{i}\\right)^{2}\n\\]\n\nwhere \\( p_i \\) are the predicted probabilities and \\( o_i \\) are the observed outcomes, equal to zero if the question resolved negatively and equal to one if it resolved positively. Brier scores range from zero to one and smaller scores are better, with the ideal score being zero and the worst possible being one.\n\nAs of question launch, the mean Brier score for the \"Metaculus prediction\" is 0.150. The [Metaculus prediction](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction) was the same as the *community prediction* until June 2017; thereafter it began to use a more sophisticated aggregation and recalibration scheme that promises more accurate predictions. \n\nBut how much more accurate? The \"Metaculus post-diction\" applies the current aggregation method to old data (excluding each question from the data used for \"training\"), and should give an estimate of future performance if future questions and predictors are comparable to past ones. As of question launch the \"postdiction\" Brier score is at 0.10.\n\nOver the next 6 months prior to Jan 23, 2018, of order 25-75 binary questions are likely to resolve, about 1/3 to 1/2 as many as have previously resolved. If the community (and the aggregation) is steadily improving, we'd expect the mean Brier score to steadily drop. We'll ask:\n\n*** Will the mean Brier score of the Metaculus prediction on Jan 23, 2018 be lower than 0.13? ***\n\nResolution will be determined via the Metaculus track record page.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507997631.920847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507997631.920847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5049245154276152 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0193650930724545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6647089477243179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1507997536.853187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1507997536.853187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.834952309677207, 0.16504769032279296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 492, "title": "Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?", "short_title": "Nuclear Power Renounces Nukes by 2035", "url_title": "Nuclear Power Renounces Nukes by 2035", "slug": "nuclear-power-renounces-nukes-by-2035", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-14T22:00:41.662816Z", "published_at": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T14:31:32.781795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 294, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 492, "title": "Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?", "created_at": "2017-07-14T22:00:41.662816Z", "open_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-21T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-21T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \n\nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\n\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\n\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\n\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if one of the 9 nations known to possess nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before January 1, 2035.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to a government's legitimacy, successor governments will be recognized as those which hold over 50% of the nation's de facto controlled territory on July 1, 2017. The successor government must also hold a political capital city within that same territory. If any of the 9 countries no longer exist or have no succesor as defined by January 1, 2035, they will be ignored for the resolution of the question.", "post_id": 492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761229882.314148, "end_time": 1765917798.426479, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761229882.314148, "end_time": 1765917798.426479, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.056848659770412424 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288687.510376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288687.510376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9943445808920363, 0.005655419107963768 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 526, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \n\nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\n\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\n\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\n\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states." }, { "id": 491, "title": "Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?", "short_title": "China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030", "url_title": "China CO2 Emissions Reduction by 60% by 2030", "slug": "china-co2-emissions-reduction-by-60-by-2030", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-14T21:57:48.248216Z", "published_at": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:34:00.857046Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 283, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 491, "title": "Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?", "created_at": "2017-07-14T21:57:48.248216Z", "open_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-18T15:18:33.920546Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-18T15:18:33.920546Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\n\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n\n- Peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n\n- Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n\n- Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\n\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** China meets its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030, according to expert analysis independent of the Chinese government", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762972430.280864, "end_time": 1764662523.349259, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762972430.280864, "end_time": 1764662523.349259, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6604897830549131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35025299933914683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052963682584139145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05932850617017236, 0.040076430037988726, 0.0, 0.06946919142131618, 0.0023404019595030367, 0.0, 0.0003890789395623584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1740840773990492, 0.0, 0.805537868386667, 0.0, 0.1267863821058986, 0.9035018588761501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5009222796382449, 0.8440709908211034, 0.00020187907996178453, 0.0, 0.7650224345223778, 0.0, 0.002620991606955845, 0.007577873927837556, 0.0006431824019388942, 0.24672596810199876, 0.09231973227421192, 0.0, 0.0036506409761602318, 0.03236613162267515, 0.8577907472721891, 0.7557440010730767, 0.012980481245229726, 0.01695580645517414, 0.19401278378553272, 1.7482785035668877, 0.43844362374821877, 0.1589004735431863, 0.0, 0.11608452477655024, 1.7883121024369686, 0.3949800756442072, 0.11733910703874832, 0.0038910340834484728, 0.16002952105219664, 0.43395283160789744, 0.3005186796990289, 0.8332236842239421, 0.20869134683812463, 1.9595218495428726, 1.9063674241502655, 0.02278389818715896, 0.006900389476497157, 0.0, 2.0445227564732827e-06, 1.3842818814561184, 0.000382503979020321, 0.0, 1.0206932892087224, 0.006244430376210896, 0.9472204032981766, 0.15398261425715767, 0.0, 1.0244633144972664, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3519313458590734, 7.185255742965783e-05, 0.6869012902548947, 0.0, 1.5486551481378568, 0.0, 6.119869106808585e-06, 0.0, 0.00033164754276142263, 0.0, 0.4049431075180659, 0.4350053390931904, 0.31423862074146425, 1.419360411629341 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290009.003346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 275, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290009.003346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 275, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34121460039712836, 0.6587853996028716 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 555, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\n\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n\n- Peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n\n- Increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n\n- Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\n\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals." }, { "id": 490, "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar", "author_id": 100638, "author_username": "James", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-10T13:37:15.654258Z", "published_at": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.517121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-19T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 490, "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "created_at": "2017-07-10T13:37:15.654258Z", "open_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-15T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-19T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-19T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-19T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\n\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. \nThe tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\n\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\n\nThis question asks:\n\n*** Will Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament.\nIt will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. ***\n\nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\n\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514747496.557407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514747496.557407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7228542910922338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010028489695676875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014358311246418655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.10251256047355009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0741010729489044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28540215056739904, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.2162635545407669, 0.39880477175698936, 0.5475369850104072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 1.0185745656645089, 0.3728600386790456, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.43815593727484836, 0.0, 0.24028656623316097, 1.10256489751121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5705348845670573, 0.7965868421966404, 0.6590390464516561, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 1.2513827635901063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.537246131274036, 0.04726253139964952, 0.036486146261818564, 0.017957461426048017, 0.0, 0.3354995879894604, 0.7899978921399792, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.019542137617201038, 0.7003927598367212, 0.7900710048926595, 0.4529037759716625, 0.002588766022538979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033167896481265315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5349401852525427 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.117921376395108, "coverage": 0.9991879661210215, "baseline_score": 55.48875442718039, "spot_peer_score": 10.507842029909009, "peer_archived_score": 13.117921376395108, "baseline_archived_score": 55.48875442718039, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.507842029909009 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514260127.272924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514260127.272924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37090445311201414, 0.6290955468879859 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 489, "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "short_title": "EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?", "url_title": "EU Meets 2030 Climate Targets?", "slug": "eu-meets-2030-climate-targets", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-07-09T19:03:41.928736Z", "published_at": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.195694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 289, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 489, "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?", "created_at": "2017-07-09T19:03:41.928736Z", "open_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\n\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n\n* At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n* At least 27% increase in energy efficiency", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "The EU has [updated its goals](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2030-climate-targets_en#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20the%20EU%20adopted,climate%2Dneutral%20continent%20by%202050.) under the Paris Agreement, but this question will use the [original goals](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/climate-change/paris-agreement/timeline-paris-agreement/#:~:text=EU%20leaders%20agreed%20on%20the%20climate%20and%20energy%20policy%20framework%20for%202030.%C2%A0The%20European%20Council%20endorsed%204%20targets%3A) in place at the time the question was written, specifically the three below.\n\n* 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990\n* At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n* At least 27% increase in energy efficiency in comparison with projections", "post_id": 489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741996933.927982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741996933.927982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.30502142139836075 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8445226841769313, 1.2298461066292576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159934312765847, 0.49985317672392365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06914506680763638, 0.2510494165966741, 3.8619735067010876, 0.29447917235271204, 0.285267168933876, 0.9356204315744984, 1.149294733675061, 1.3523194666801057, 0.5830936945630816, 1.4583865148692894, 0.6439483782837597, 0.7654666279108554, 2.1311295119997986, 0.3119198744306535, 0.6759935618758703, 0.29900422169898483, 0.1311661513775984, 1.6780568752030456, 0.4565685631993725, 0.12384197980748934, 0.30853355439987706, 0.0, 1.4723362953143888, 0.04131576258284701, 0.291651082210772, 0.2565520077396062, 1.0034409295953384, 0.20318166481765892, 0.10219504026308651, 0.1052320588581673, 0.023384570437626578, 0.07004163039274032, 0.3530887604583207, 0.0012311110897267265, 0.20602426030613413, 0.07544861291537716, 0.018274316746052382, 0.519499474781023, 0.14594562890045715, 0.10192679992631655, 0.0021319532500340315, 1.868479963897738e-05, 0.01064833089354451, 2.3795658065792734e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01893862758154472, 0.002802192179217466, 0.00026794398569656574, 0.0025743964249650003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053128622836189736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3788697697148556, 0.0, 6.009155443988142e-07, 0.013959089730792679, 0.5492194001706203, 0.0, 2.967110241816398e-06, 1.4839705996459547, 4.047167755675434e-05, 0.8126066318113417, 7.505956270154482e-05, 0.0, 0.8625737242091999, 1.1486958203098814e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041633407778449445, 1.0554285956743907, 0.0, 5.719762565793427e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6787938987166446, 3.003568977632286e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6615374955806116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10451343795721592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288660.074159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 267, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288660.074159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 267, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8922945757314911, 0.10770542426850889 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 572, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\n\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n\n* At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n* At least 27% increase in energy efficiency" }, { "id": 484, "title": "First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "first-commercial-crewed-spaceflight-by-september-2018", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-06-28T14:12:40.726797Z", "published_at": "2017-07-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.860498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-07-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T23:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T23:18:00Z", "open_time": "2017-07-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 484, "title": "First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?", "created_at": "2017-06-28T14:12:40.726797Z", "open_time": "2017-07-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T23:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T23:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-08T23:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-02-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "No astronaut has launched into space from American soil since the final flight of the space shuttle in 2011. Although the development of commercial space carriers has seen numerous successful launches of cargo, crewed human spaceflight remains the next major milestone.\n\nWhen NASA's commercial crew development program [began in 2009](http://hobbyspace.com/AAdmin/archive/Reference/CCDev_Source_Selection_Statement_signed-1.pdf) as an intended replacement for the Space Shuttle, the first crewed flights were expected in 2015.\n\nIn 2014, NASA awarded [commercial crew contracts](http://floridapolitics.com/archives/205923-nasa-expecting-spacex-boeing-privately-launch-astronauts-2017) to Boeing and SpaceX for their CST-100 and Dragon V2 capsule, respectively. At the time, former NASA administrator Charlie Bolden [expected](https://blogs.nasa.gov/bolden/2014/09/16/american-companies-selected-to-return-astronaut-launches-to-american-soil/) the US to end its reliance on Russian spacecraft by 2017.\n\nAlthough the schedule has been pushed back since then, the latest [target flight dates](https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2016/12/12/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-flight-dates/) call for unmanned flight tests for SpaceX and Boeing in November 2017 and June 2018, respectively, followed by crewed launches in May and August 2018. Crew assignments for the first flights could come as early as [summer 2017](http://spacenews.com/commercial-crew-flight-assignments-could-come-this-summer/), about a year before launch.\n\nPressure to meet the deadline comes from NASA's [move](http://spacenews.com/spacex-delays-commercial-crew-demonstration-flights/) to not renew spaceflight contracts with Russia beyond the end of 2018. Other pressures are pushing the other direction - following a Falcon 9 explosion in September 2016, NASA has [raised concerns](http://spacenews.com/spacex-delays-commercial-crew-demonstration-flights/) about the safety of SpaceX's fueling protocol. Both companies [announced](http://spacenews.com/spacex-delays-commercial-crew-demonstration-flights/) scheduling delays as recently as December 2016.\n\n***Will the first commercial human spaceflight take place by September 2018? ***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if a commercial space vehicle launched from the United States, carrying human passengers (even if test pilots), successfully travels to an altitude above 100 km and returns safely to the Earth, as reported by a credible news outlet, after 2010 and on or before August 31, 2018.\n\n*(Edit 1/6/18 for clarifications that test pilots/flights count, and that pre-2010 flights do not count.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1517461009.495749, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1517461009.495749, "end_time": null, 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"curation_status_updated_at": "2017-06-22T02:59:36Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-10T23:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-10T23:29:00Z", "open_time": "2017-06-22T02:59:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"created_at": "2017-06-21T19:48:12.491493Z", "open_time": "2017-06-22T02:59:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-06-23T05:48:48.664299Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-06-23T05:48:48.664299Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-10T23:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-10T23:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-10T23:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Thousands of extrasolar planets](https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/) are now known. The vast majority have been discovered with either the [Doppler radial velocity](http://oklo.org/systemic-console-tutorial-1-hd-4208/) or the [photometric transit](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/multimedia/images/kepler-transit-graph.html) techniques.\n\n[NASA's Kepler Mission](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/kepler/main/index.html), which employs transit photometry to discover new worlds, has been the single largest contributor to the overall census of known planets. The spacecraft's CCD detectors are sensitive enough that it is feasible to detect some short-period planets through the variation in their intrinsic emission and reflected starlight during the course of their orbits. A search for these traces of planetary flux was part of the early renditions of the Kepler analysis pipeline, and was called the Reflected Light Search, or RLS module. Budget constraints, however, forced cancellation of the reflected light search as the mission moved toward launch.\n\nIn a [new paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06602) lead-authored by Millholland, machine-learning techniques are applied to identify non-transiting hot Jupiter-type planets in the archival Kepler data. The pipeline described in the new study has identified sixty high-quality giant planet candidates, all of which are now in need of confirmation via the Doppler velocity technique. \n\nThe feasibility of obtaining definitive radial velocity observations for the candidates is quite high. Although many of the target stars are faint, the planets, should they exist, are expected to have large radial velocity semi-amplitudes. The confirmation of a significant number of the candidate planets would provide a highly useful ensemble for studies of how planetary atmospheres and climates react to extreme conditions of stellar insolation.\n\nIn cases where prospective host stars receive five or more Doppler velocity observations of mean estimated instrumental velocity precision of 15 m/s or better, will 50% or more of the candidates listed in [Table 4 of the paper](https://smillholland.github.io/Non-transiting_HJs/) turn out to be bona-fide hot Jupiters?\n\nFor purposes of question resolution, a successful detection must be published in the peer-reviewed literature prior to July 1, 2018, and must be consistent with a planet having 0.2 Mjup < Msin(i) < 13 Mjup, and a period within 10% of the value listed in Table 4 of the paper.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 483, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1506755071.450152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, 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481, "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2018", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-06-19T16:02:03.288714Z", "published_at": "2017-06-19T16:00:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.860257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-06-19T16:00:23Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-07-03T03:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-07-03T03:49:00Z", "open_time": "2017-06-19T16:00:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 481, "title": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?", "created_at": "2017-06-19T16:02:03.288714Z", "open_time": "2017-06-19T16:00:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-06-20T16:57:10.502335Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-06-20T16:57:10.502335Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-07-03T03:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-07-03T03:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-07-03T03:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In mid-January of 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- kicked the news media into high gear by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. Their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years, and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the planet count back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded nearly half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for Planet Nine. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-ref_query?bibcode=2016AJ....151...22B&refs=CITATIONS&db_key=AST) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. During the past year, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been shown that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M) among the most distant members of the Kuipier Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nBased on the host of recent results, Metaculus now calculates a most probable current sky position for Planet Nine of RA=2h, Dec=0 deg. This area of the sky is optimally visible during late autumn for a planet at opposition. At the most probable current location, the planet's current distance would be r~950 AU, and the expected V magnitude is 22.4. [A number of groups have engaged in the hunt](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jillianscudder/2016/10/22/astroquizzical-find-planet-nine/#7d17ed343256), and there is [something of an emerging consensus](http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-planet-nine-new-evidence-20161022-snap-story.html) that *if* the planet is to be found, it'll be found sooner rather than later. As an example, Mike Brown [gave sixteen months](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3860036/Nowhere-left-hide-Planet-Nine-Astronomers-claim-mystery-world-just-16-months.html) eight months ago. This *third* update to our original, now closed, [Planet Nine question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/109/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-in-2016/) is thus in order: \n\nWill the discovery by direct observation of a new solar system planet having characteristics substantially similar to those described in the Batygin-Brown paper, be announced in a peer-reviewed paper prior to July 1, 2018?\n\n(For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", the new solar system planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, an orbital period greater than 5,000 years, and an orbital eccentricity e > 0.25).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514718701.707587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1514718701.707587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 480, "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?", "created_at": "2017-06-19T13:27:49.647384Z", "open_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2020-05-08T15:40:26.866685Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2020-05-08T15:40:26.866685Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \n \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n\n1. White wins\n\n2. Black wins\n\n3. Forced draw\n\n**If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?** \n\nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n\n- it is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n\n- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\n\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 480, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758016005.828687, "end_time": 1766269096.491292, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.179 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758016005.828687, "end_time": 1766269096.491292, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.179 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.821, 0.179 ], "means": [ 0.22060309941358108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9320173543037288, 1.8716687488405648, 0.648458842137279, 0.022146270059477058, 0.5236700594616512, 1.075167596861416, 0.6769273504749657, 1.1044129594596814, 0.0, 0.00011148853322253095, 1.2933113383333628, 0.5000515952219098, 0.9181115929699587, 0.0, 0.1099259732378261, 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Self-driving trucks](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603493/10-breakthrough-technologies-2017-self-driving-trucks/) are advancing quickly toward reality, and both the economic and the environmental arguments in their favor are quite strong. Major tech-industry players, notably Google and Uber, are making rapid progress. The consensus (as of 6/2017) on [this currently open Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/) predicts that the first driverless cross-USA cargo truck run will occur in December 2018, a time frame better measured in months than in years.\n\nA [recent report](https://newsroom.intel.com/newsroom/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/05/passenger-economy.pdf?cid=em-elq-26916&utm_source=elq&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=26916&elq_cid=1494219) commissioned by Intel crisply predicts that autonomous driving (by both cars and trucks) will contribute $7 trillion to the economy, but it devolves to vague and euphemistic palliatives when the future prospects for truckers are discussed. For example, the report notes that autonomous vehicles — in displacing human drivers — will, \"create opportunities for transportation companies to utilize the `freed' time of drivers to evolve and enhance their role and impact to the organization.\"\n\nThe Trump administration was voted into office on the strength of support from a demographic that would experience proportionally large job losses if fully autonomous self-driving trucks become a reality. There may, therefore, be grass-roots pressure for legislation that keeps humans in the driver's seats. On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly spoken (and acted) in favor of deregulation generally.\n\n*** By January 2020, will US Federal regulations be implemented that restrict the operation of trucks without a human operator on board? ***\n\nFor positive resolution, regulations (or laws) must be adopted at the federal (rather than state) level that significantly curtail, delay, or prohibit the adoption of autonomous trucking technologies, arguably for reasons that go beyond pure safety considerations. 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"resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Industry \"disruption\" is a Silicon Valley buzzword. Companies like Netflix and Uber have upended (or just plain ended, in the case of movie rentals) entire industries. Such disruption rarely comes without pushback or controversy, however.\n\n[Rentberry](https://rentberry.com) is an auction-style market for rental properties. Users submit bids of the price they're willing to pay for monthly rent and security deposit, and landlords decide which bid to accept. The company started in the San Francis area, where [median rents](https://sf.curbed.com/2017/3/27/15079428/sf-rent-map-march-2017) for a one-bedroom apartment can top $3,600 per month. Although Rentberry claims that users pay around [4% less](https://icezone.uk/rentberrys-controversial-property-bid-site-expands-in-us/) for apartments by using the app, an auction framework in a tight market tends toward driving prices up. \n\nRentberry's business mode drawn some level of ire from various directions. Journalists covering the business have expressed [distaste](http://gizmodo.com/bidding-website-rentberry-may-be-the-startup-of-your-ni-1793940693) at the prospect of [bidding wars](http://www.sanjoseinside.com/2016/07/20/property-auction-startup-rentberry-angers-tenants) and the demise of a [semblance of affordable housing](http://grist.org/news/not-paying-enough-rent-new-startup-rentberry-could-change-that/) in hot urban markets. \n\nBeyond the gut reaction, however, Rentberry may be violating federal law. The [Fair Housing Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_Housing_Act) is designed to prevent housing discrimination for protected classes. Landlords' choice of which bid to accept [could result](https://www.landlordology.com/order-of-applicants/) in allegations of discrimination.\n\nAs happened with Uber and Airbnb, cities could act to bar or curtail Rentberry in their cities, cutting off access to the priciest and most lucrative pool of apartments. \n\nOther factors could also spell Rentberry's demise, such as a change in market conditions. The company makes money off of a $25 \"success fee,\" so a marked downturn in rental applications could hurt the revenue stream. Alternatively, runaway success could lead to Rentberry's buyout.\n\nWith all of these possibilities in mind:\n***Will Rentberry still be in operation with its current business model in 2019?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if the current model of auction-style bidding for apartment is still the operating mode of Rentberry, and that Rentberry is still an operating company, on December 31, 2018. If Rentberry is bought out but still operating under the \"Rentberry\" brand and under the same business model, this will also count as a positive resolution, but if bought out and subsumed into some significantly different effort resolution will be negative.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1523744799.401399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1523744799.401399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6160355181752551 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19044414436503487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.050719975180017585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008556628871015935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07265466937739974, 0.0, 0.050118825105214884, 0.0, 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{ "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal *Aging* made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\n\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in *Aging*, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\n\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \n\nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\n\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\n\n***Will MEND be independently replicated by 2025?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 477, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1609440526.588781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Mash together drones, Uber, and driverless cars – hallmarks of our age – and you get flying autonomous taxis. Flying cars are almost a cliche in futuristic fiction, but have never been closer to reality. \n\nMultiple companies are developing flying passenger vehicles, including [Ehang](http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0612/c90000-9070731.html), [E-volo](https://futurism.com/a-flying-taxi-service-will-soar-through-the-skies-by-2018/), [Airbus](https://futurism.com/airbus-plans-to-make-autonomous-flying-cars-a-reality-by-2017/) [AeroMobil](https://futurism.com/aeromobil-just-unveiled-a-new-futuristic-flying-car-which-will-hit-the-skies-next-year/), [Lilium Aviation](https://futurism.com/skype-co-founder-invests-10-million-in-a-flying-car-that-can-travel-more-than-250-kmh/) and yes, [Uber](https://futurism.com/3-ubers-flying-taxis-soon-to-fly-in-dubai-and-dallas/).\n\nMany of these ventures are looking to a 2020 or 2021 date for beginning commercial flying car/taxi operations in the U.S. Airbus' version, [Vahana](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) aims to test a prototype this year. Chinese company Ehang has more than 100 test flights under its belt and has already secured permits to begin flight tests in Nevada. Ehang commercial flights are expected to begin [this year](http://fortune.com/2017/02/16/dubai-travel-drones-air-taxi-ehang-184/) in Dubai.\n\n***Will flying taxis take off in the United States by 2021?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in the United States with full FAA approval on or before December 31, 2020. The passenger must be unaffiliated with the provider of the vehicle, and pay for the service.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 475, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1557870049.567627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1557870049.567627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 258, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.07510179953515264 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.493748090295748, 2.8542342298905057, 1.4589893768617448, 0.4116967043104125, 2.321636485970858, 0.4872541710523455, 0.8030013479018545, 0.08286211841976944, 0.07093647369049451, 1.5261405414788793, 0.0, 0.26241785939793566, 0.0014692747165660537, 0.6256015399570972, 0.7047299089685217, 0.00016428477947026514, 1.5462109791799472, 7.3578873071474745e-06, 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"Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 474, "title": "Will the UK elections lead to an absolute majority for one party in parliament?", "created_at": "2017-06-04T01:53:54.948229Z", "open_time": "2017-06-04T01:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-06-06T01:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-06-06T01:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-06-09T20:07:04.767000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-06-09T20:07:04.767000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-06-09T20:07:04.767000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-06-08T01:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-06-08T01:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Conservative party headed by Prime Minister May called a snap election for June 8 and initially were predicted to win in a landslide as polls showed them getting a share of the votes 20 to 25 percent higher than the Labour party. \n\nThis has changed in the last few weeks with the [most recent polls](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/general-election-polls-2017-latest-odds-tracker-maps/) showing the percentage difference narrowing to the single digits. One poll even predicted a \"hung parliament\" where no party has an absolute majority. \n\n*** Will a single political party win an absolute majority in parliament when the votes are finished counted on June 9 ? ***\n\nResolution is positive if official results are announced giving any political particle an absolute majority in the UK elections of June 8. In the case of contested seats as of June 10, resolution will be delayed if and only if those contested seats would affect whether a majority is achieved.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 474, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1496880033.355815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1496880033.355815, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7358769100962339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3543173890644741, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.995412629108827, "coverage": 0.30078603078438726, "baseline_score": -40.78264519744899, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 10.995412629108827, "baseline_archived_score": -40.78264519744899, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1496880033.49697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1496880033.49697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.381882697252503, 0.618117302747497 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }