Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6140
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(see current market cap and time series [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/).) While Bitcoin is still the largest, hundreds of other blockchain-based currencies have been launched, and some are catching up.\n\nEthereum (ETH) started trading in 2015, and has reached almost half the market cap of Bitcoin as of June 2017; see current market cap and time series [here](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/). Ripple, a third major currency, stands at about half of Ethereum.\n\n*** Will Ethereum surpass Bitcoin's total market capitalization by 2020? ***\n\nResolution will be based on the descendant blockchains of Bitcoin and Ethereum (including Ethereum classic) with the largest market cap at the time. Resolution is positive if at any point prior to Jan 1, 2020, Ethereum's total market capitalization surpasses that of Bitcoin, as reported on [coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/), for two consecutive days.\n(If coinmarketcap.com is discontinued, then resolution will be based on substantially equivalent data or sources.)\n\nFor this question, a \"descendant blockchain\" is: (a) a continuation of a blockchain (e.g., both ethereum and ethereum classic are descendant blockchains of the pre-DAO blockchain), or (b) a snapshot-based fork where a new blockchain is initiated with balances equal to those from a snapshot of the parent blockchain (e.g., the upcoming zencash will be a descendent of zclassic because its genesis block will begin with balances equal to those from a snapshot of zclassic's blockchain, but zclassic is not a descendent of zcash because its genesis block had empty balances). In addition, the date of the snapshot must be after the creation of this question (2017-06-02).\n\n*(Edited 06/06/17 to require two consecutive days of resolution satisfaction, and to specify descendent blockchain provisions.)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 471, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546289639.688731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546289639.688731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.258860721328083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.9160778389856845, 0.0004252661137315539, 0.22689821615502143, 0.0, 0.19802975714986443, 6.488418650884433e-07, 0.38060167243463305, 0.0, 0.026290264055113116, 3.204957749479044, 0.0, 0.3618481618522243, 1.1403772167029471, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7447141232008478, 0.25528587679915216 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 47, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 553, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 470, "title": "OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "ok-fine-can-five-human-go-masters-defeat-alphago", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-05-24T00:04:01.197529Z", "published_at": "2017-05-24T00:03:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.538326Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-05-24T00:03:58Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-05-26T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-05-26T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-05-26T20:04:15.506000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-05-26T20:04:15.506000Z", "open_time": "2017-05-24T00:03:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 470, "title": "OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo?", "created_at": "2017-05-24T00:04:01.197529Z", "open_time": "2017-05-24T00:03:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-05-24T17:26:22.877851Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-05-24T17:26:22.877851Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-05-26T20:04:15.506000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-05-26T20:04:15.506000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-05-26T20:04:15.506000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-05-26T05:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-05-26T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The last several years have seen stunning advances by artificial Go contestants. Google's [AlphaGo](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) program has seen particular success. After sealing a stunning [4-1](http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/15/11213518/alphago-deepmind-go-match-5-result) victory over Go grandmaster Lee Sedol, an updated version of Alphago, [playing in online forums using the account name 'Master'](https://qz.com/877721/the-ai-master-bested-the-worlds-top-go-players-and-then-revealed-itself-as-googles-alphago-in-disguise/), has swept through the Go field, defeating nearly all of the world’s top players in the course of 60 online matches without registering a single loss.\n\nAt the Future of Go summit, underway as of this question's writing, AlphaGo is facing off against go master Ke Jie (1-0 AlphaGo as of writing); a [sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/416/will-a-human-beat-alphago-in-2017/) asks whether any human can defeat AlphaGo in 2017.\n\nOne thing humans have in abundance is numbers, however, and another [intriguing event at the Future of Go Summit](https://events.google.com/alphago2017/) is a planned 5-on-1 Human vs. AlphaGo team game in which \"5 players combine tactics and take on AlphaGo together.\" (The players are Chen Yaoye, Zhou Ruiyang, Mi Yuting, Shi Yue, and Tang Weixing.)\n\n*** Will the team of five humans defeat AlphaGo in this match? ***\n\nThe match takes place Friday 26 May (13:30 - 18:30, UTC+8).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1495765134.420003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1495765134.420003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15688896668089342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.42550593662906744, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0069463010915782, 0.5688459947012257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 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"" }, { "id": 467, "title": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-consensus-explanation-of-the-strange-behavior-of-the-star-kic-8462852-emerge-this-year", "author_id": 10, "author_username": "Greg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-05-20T15:14:00.613138Z", "published_at": "2017-05-20T15:17:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.166389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-05-20T15:17:30Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-06-30T15:02:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-06-30T15:02:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-01-10T16:33:02.358000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-01-10T16:33:02.358000Z", "open_time": "2017-05-20T15:17:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 467, "title": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "created_at": "2017-05-20T15:14:00.613138Z", "open_time": "2017-05-20T15:17:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-05-20T23:49:04.202137Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-05-20T23:49:04.202137Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-01-10T16:33:02.358000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-01-10T16:33:02.358000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-01-10T16:33:02.358000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-06-30T15:02:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-06-30T15:02:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "NASA’s Kepler Mission revealed that the star [KIC 8462852], a.k.a. \"Tabby's Star\" displays severe, aperiodic dips in brightness that have so far defied conventional astrophysical explanations. \n\nSeveral explanations for this behavior have been put forward, ranging from [a family of comets](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.08821), to the indigestive [aftereffects of the consumption of a planet by the star](https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.07332), to a swarm of artificial, orbiting “[megastructures].” \n\nVery recently, [KIC 8462852 has begun to dim again](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=10405). Observations taken between May 18th and 19th 2017 show a 2% diminution of light from the star. A variety of telescopes are now being trained on the star, and will obtain data across the electromagnetic spectrum. Included in these follow-up efforts are campaigns that are specifically designed to look for evidence of artificially generated signals. The authors of the [Astronomical Telegram](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=10405) describing the current dimming of the star write:\n\n>We will continue our monitoring observations using Swift, LCO, and Fairborn, as well as our >spectroscopic observations as part of the Breakthrough Listen program using the APF-Levy >spectrometer at Lick Observatory (27 epochs obtained since Nov 21, 2015). Near-InfraRed Optical >SETI (NIROSETI) on the Nickel 1-m telescope at Lick Observatory has been monitoring Boyajian's >Star, conducting 65 minutes of observations of the star UT 2017 May 20, and will continue to monitor >the star UT 2017 May 21, 22, and 23. We encourage additional multi-wavelength follow-up. >Especially interesting would be lines in the region between H-alpha and the sodium doublet, >inclusive, and thermal infrared measurements.\n\nAs of May 20, 2017, no consensus explanation of this star's behavior has emerged. It seems quite plausible, however, that multi-wavelength observations of the star while it is undergoing dimming may serve to sort out the mystery. We thus ask:\n\n***Will a consensus emerge in 2017?***\n\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let *N* be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n\n- provide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, *and*\n- are cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, *and*\n- are cited at least 5 times in total, *and*\n- are not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting the given explanation.\n\nIf *N=1* we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If *N > 1*, *and* if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached. \n\n[an analysis]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1601.03256\n[family of comets]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.08821\n[KIC 8462852]:http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.03622v1.pdf\n[megastructures]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.04606\n[has been criticized]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07314\n[radio]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.01606\n[other signals]:http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.00987\n[previous question]:http://www.metaculus.com/questions/4/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1498817593.490451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1498817593.490451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.21550611071273781 ], 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"title": "Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-us-in-2019", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-05-17T15:54:19.752666Z", "published_at": "2017-05-17T15:53:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.555747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-05-17T15:53:10Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-02-01T12:44:00Z", "open_time": "2017-05-17T15:53:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 342, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32593, "name": "2016-2020 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2020_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", 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Trump is the President of the US as of May 2017. However his term thus far has been beset by a certain level of chaos on many fronts. As a followup to a [standing but closed question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/377/will-donald-trump-be-the-president-of-the-united-states-in-2018/) on whether Trump will still be President in two years, here we extend the timeline to 2019 and the beginning of the next Presidential election.\n\nIn addition to the usual mortal risks that might prevent a president from serving the second year of his term, the likelihood of either resignation or impeachment seem distinctly higher in Trump's case than for some previous Presidents-Elect. Between a major FBI investigation, potential leaks of highly classified information, and other issues, there are major uncertainties as to his long-term viability. \n\n***This question will resolve true if Donald J. 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"2017-05-16T20:35:10.453000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-05-16T20:35:10.453000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-05-15T19:30:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-05-15T19:30:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There are numerous stories in the news about a [giant slimy unidentified sea creature that has washed up on shore in Indonesia](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/sea-creature-indonesia-giant-squid-whale-seram-island-mysterious-huge-dead-monster-a7732871.html).\n\nThere is speculation as to whether the creature is (a) a giant squid or octopus, (b) a whale, (c) Cthulu's tiny spawn, or (d) some other unknown creature.\n\n*** Will the unidentified carcass turn out to be just a whale? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a credible media account reports that analysis by credible researchers has reliably identified the carcass as a whale.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 465, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1494830376.803606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1494830376.803606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 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"2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A [recent stunning and controversial claim](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v544/n7651/full/nature22065.html) by a group led by Tom Deméré, has emerged that a site in California contains fossil mammoth bones dating to ~130,000 BC that appear to have been broken and manipulated by human (or possibly other hominid) tools. This would predate by more than 1000 centuries the current general consensus that humans reached North America only [around 25,000 years ago at earliest.](http://www.iflscience.com/plants-and-animals/humans-arrived-in-north-america-10000-years-earlier-than-we-thought/)\n\nAs nicely detailed in [this National Geographic piece](http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/04/mastodons-americas-peopling-migrations-archaeology-science/), other researchers are skeptical of the study, citing the absence of the tools themselves or other corroborating evidence. \n\nSo will this evidence for a (much) earlier hominid species in North America turn out to be true? To get at this we'll ask the following:\n\n*** By start of 2020, will an additional site be discovered in California, dated to prior to 50,000 years ago and indicating Hominid presence, with an analysis published in a peer-reviewed journal that cites this discovery as evidence for the Deméré paper ***\n\nOR\n\n*** By start of 2019, will more than two additional and independent (no shared authorship) analyses of the Deméré et al. site's findings, published in peer reviewed journals, argue on the balance in favor of hominid presence prior to 100,000 BC in California. ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510696852.755442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510696852.755442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": 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"status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Sepsis, also known as blood poisoning, is an infection that spans multiple systems of the body, often leading to loss of blood pressure, organ failure, and death. Sepsis is the [leading cause of death in hospitals](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/30/521918863/why-the-newly-proposed-sepsis-treatment-needs-more-study), claiming around 300,000 people per year in the United States. [Paul Marik](https://www.evms.edu/education/centers_institutes_departments/internal_medicine/faculty_staff/pulmonary__critical_care_faculty/name_11909_en.html), a doctor in Norfolk, VA developing a new sepsis treatment, says the death rate from the infection is akin to \"[three jumbo jets crashing every day](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521096488/doctor-turns-up-possible-treatment-for-deadly-sepsis).\"\n\nCurrently, hospitals treat sepsis by administering fluids and antibiotics. Marik's treatment involves a mix of corticosteroids and two vitamins - Vitamin B and Vitamin C. The combination, Marik says, boosts the body's reception of the steroids,which relieve the inflammation associated with sepsis. Marik [says he's treated 150 patients with his custom combo now](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521096488/doctor-turns-up-possible-treatment-for-deadly-sepsis), and only one has died of sepsis.\n\nMarik's treatment seems miraculous and potentially transformative in the way sepsis is treated - so naturally and rightfully, physicians are wary. A chief concern is that the treatment hasn't been through a [randomized double-blind controlled trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial), the gold standard of evaluating medical treatments. In such a trial, patients are randomly assigned to receive either the treatment or a placebo, with neither the patient or the doctor aware of who receives what. One physician [stated](http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/30/521918863/why-the-newly-proposed-sepsis-treatment-needs-more-study) that with the claims Marik has made, even a small study could corroborate them. Ideally, such a study would be carried out at multiple hospitals to ensure the effect could be replicated.\n\nPart of doctors' skepticism comes from the history of sepsis treatments. In 2011, [two potential treatments](http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/1104740) failed due to a lack of clear evidence that they were effective. Both were pharmaceuticals, which proceed through a different approval pathway than Marik's treatment, which does not involve any new drugs, but rather a combination of existing compounds. Marik will have to submit a research proposal for funding, with a review process that could take nine months. Results wouldn't be available for probably two years.\n\nBut if the treatment is proven effective, it could save millions of lives and reshape medicine's understanding of how the body responds to inflammation.\n\n***Will a randomized, controlled, double-blind trial of Marik's treatment begin before 2019?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if a clinical trial registry such as clinicaltrials.gov or a credible news outlet reports that a trial treatment for sepsis involving corticosteroids and vitamins C and D is underway on or before December 31, 2018.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1521065144.222966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1521065144.222966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"scheduled_close_time": "2017-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-05-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The February 2016 [detection of gravitational waves](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211) by the earth-bound LIGO observatory heralded the beginning of gravitational-wave astronomy. Much as other forms of astronomy collect information by observing visible light, infrared, or x-rays, gravitational-wave astronomy observes the universe via the ripples in space-time that emanate from cosmic events, such as the collision of black holes. \n\nIn response to the newfound interest in gravitational waves, the European Space Agency [chose \"The Gravitational Universe\" as the theme](http://sci.esa.int/cosmic-vision/58543-the-gravitational-universe/) for its L3 mission, slated for a 2034 launch. ESA's [call for mission proposals](https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/2016-l3-mission-call) closed in January 2017. \n\nOne of the proposals submitted is for the [Laser Interferometer Space Antenna](https://www.lisamission.org) (LISA), a mission that would comprise three spacecraft, arranged in a triangle. As gravitational waves pass by the antenna, the ripples in gravity will change the distance between the points in a manner detectable by the primary spacecraft. The distance between the spacecraft is large – ten times larger than the orbit of the moon. \n\nTechnology for this proposed mission was proven on a [test mission](http://www.nature.com/news/successful-test-drive-for-space-based-gravitational-wave-detector-1.19452), LISA Pathfinder, which launched in 2015. The smaller craft showed that two test masses could be isolated from all forces but gravity, and that the detector could pick up discrepancies in the laser signal on the minuscule picometer scale. LISA Pathfinder's mission was [recently extended](http://sci.esa.int/lisa-pathfinder/58633-lisa-pathfinder-s-pioneering-mission-continues/) to June 2017.\n\nThe LISA mission has had a [turbulent funding history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna#History). The mission was first proposed to the ESA in the 1990s and gained additional traction with the participation of NASA, promised in 1997. NASA withdrew in 2011, however, citing budget cuts. ESA then asked the proposed L1 missions, including LISA, to reformulate lower-cost versions. The revamped New Gravitational wave Observatory was [passed over](http://sci.esa.int/cosmic-vision/46510-cosmic-vision/?fbodylongid=2153) for funding in 2012.\n\nBut the mission's luck changed with the L3 mission proposals. LIGO's discovery prompted a resurgent interest in gravitational wave astronomy and led to the ESA's mission theme. At the same time, LISA Pathfinder had returned successful results, proving out the mission's technology. Finally, NASA [rejoined the project](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/nasa-moves-rejoin-sped-gravitational-wave-mission), although as a junior partner. (Whether the US contribution will rise to the level of 20% is subject of [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/234/will-nasa-rejoin-the-elisa-space-mission-for-detecting-gravitational-waves/)).\n\n***Will ESA select the LISA mission as its L3 mission, to launch in 2034?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if LISA is chosen as ESA's mission for study by May 31, 2017.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1494787554.179496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1494787554.179496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6810749891898564 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 457, "title": "Giant robot battle: is it on?", "created_at": "2017-03-31T22:02:36.397200Z", "open_time": "2017-03-31T22:01:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-04-02T22:01:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-04-02T22:01:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-10-14T14:04:02.154000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-10-14T14:04:02.154000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-10-14T14:04:02.154000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In July 2015, with a move that fired up the imaginations of moviegoers, US-based MegaBots [challenged](http://nerdist.com/us-mecha-builder-challenges-japan-to-robo-duel/) the Japanese robot Kuratas to a giant robot duel. Japan quickly [accepted](http://nerdist.com/japan-accepts-americas-giant-robot-duel/) the challenge, noting that the US bot would have to be improved first. \"Just building something huge and sticking guns on it. It’s….Super American,\" said the Kuratas team.\n\nKuratas has been around [since 2012](http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2012-07/video-japanese-mega-mecha-fires-bbs-when-you-smile), stands 12'5\", and weighs 4.5 tons. MegaBots' answer is the Mk.III mech, armed with a [drill augur, a tree shear, and a spinning saw](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3965612/The-MEGABOT-tests-weapons-Watch-body-crushing-grapple-spinning-wheel-death-action-team-prepares-Japan-s-finest-gladiator-style-dual.html) called \"The Dentist.\" Although both bots are designed to shoot projectiles (ranging from BBs to [3-pound paintballs](http://nerdist.com/us-mecha-builder-challenges-japan-to-robo-duel/)) the actual duel would be close-quarters bot-to-bot combat. MegaBots is preparing by testing how the Mk.III holds up to impacts from a [wrecking ball](http://nerdist.com/giant-robot-vs-wrecking-ball-a-fight-where-everyone-wins/).\n\nThe date of the duel has been delayed, with the last scheduling update appearing in July 2016. MegaBots says that the battle is [still on](https://geekdad.com/2016/08/megabots-update/), but that negotiations for the date and venue are ongoing. MegaBots began unveiling components of the Mk.III bot in [fall 2016](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/megabots/support-team-usa-in-the-giant-robot-duel/description) but no complete bot has been revealed yet.\n\n***Will the MegaBots vs Kuratas battle occur before 2019?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if the respective giant robots (or very similar efforts by essentially the same builders) meet and fight on or before December 31, 2018, as reported by a corporate press release or a credible, verified news outlet.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1504223904.740836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1504223904.740836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 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But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\n\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\n\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even *in principle* possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\n\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \n\n*** What is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? ***\n\nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\n\n*Note:* like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 455, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1635687002.409639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1635687002.409639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 437, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.1261960040445935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.037034549864172, 2.80543239088044, 5.325507488437761, 0.16030512877349987, 4.810034289663725, 0.32979260194522114, 0.402040618712501, 2.2878303932152573, 0.1255812001468029, 3.400421797717458, 0.012545270167556239, 0.7128244125166079, 0.6908339329105222, 0.8453590053497935, 2.0454719043466874, 1.0146130945986143, 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}, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The ongoing reports that Russia acted to influence the 2016 US Presidential Election in Trump's favor reached a dramatic new point in mid-March 2017, with FBI director [announcing](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/20/politics/comey-hearing-russia-wiretapping/) during a senate hearing that the FBI is continuing investigation into Russia's election interference and that\n\n> That includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia's efforts,\" Comey said in his opening statement to the committee.\n\nComey did not disclose any particular individual(s) under investigation, though there are several possibilities, including those [discussed by Adam Schiff](http://time.com/4706721/comey-hearing-adam-schiff-transcript/) in his testimony during the hearing.\n\n*** Will any US citizen be charged in connection with the FBI's investigation of potential coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia? ***\n\nResolution is positive if formal charges are brought by the FBI or justice department in connection with the case. Charges brought in connection with Russian influence but unrelated to anyone in Trump's campaign will not count toward resolution. 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Meanwhile Jon Snow has declared himself \"King in the North.\"\n\nThere is arguably some momentum toward Snow and Targaryan emerging as the two strong and sympathetic characters that could lead to a very satisfying series ending. On the other hand, this is not a series known for its predictability nor unwillingness to kill off major and even sympathetic characters. Let's ask:\n\n*** Will Jon Snow bend the knee to Daenerys Targaryen? ***\n\nWe'll take this question to have a double meaning. It resolves positively if Jon personally surrenders, *or* proposes marriage, to Daenerys in an episode airing in 2017. An alliance does not count. 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title of the largest nation on Earth. That title is retained today by the Russian Federation, although diminished by the independence of the 14 nations that broke away from the Soviet Union in the 1990s. \n\nA degree of [nostalgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostalgia_for_the_Soviet_Union) for the days of the Soviet Union still lingers among the former Soviet republics. Russia's current president, Vladimir Putin, holds that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a [political disaster](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4480745.stm).\n\nIn 2014, Russian military [invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) the Crimean peninsula, a move condemned internationally and [still unrecognized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_68/262) by all but a handful of nations. The aftermath of the annexation has seen armed conflict in Ukraine's eastern regions, in which Russian-speaking separatists ([allegedly supported by an unknown number of Russian military](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html?_r=0)) fought with government forces in 2014 and 2015. \n\nMore recently, Russian military activities in [Kaliningrad,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Oblast) a non-contiguous Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, has neighboring countries on edge. The Baltic nations of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are members of NATO, but are also former Soviet republics, and the [military buildup in Kaliningrad](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37597075) has raised concerns that an invasion of the Baltics, as an effort to reclaim Soviet territory, may be upcoming. In response to the threat, nearby Sweden [reinstated mandatory military service](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/03/sweden-conscription/518571/). \n\nIn June 2016, the Secretary General of NATO [warned](http://www.dw.com/en/natos-stoltenberg-warns-of-russian-expansionism-outside-its-borders/a-19332759) of Russian military buildups \"in Arctic, the Baltic, from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean,\" adding \"We must respond to that.\"\n\n***Will Russia pursue expansion by military means by 2020?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if Russia claims that territory of a sovereign nation is now under its authority following military activity in the area conclusively tied to Russian forces, as reported by multiple credible, verified independent sources, on or before January 1, 2020.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1505420335.960313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, 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"2017-03-17T22:52:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-03-19T22:52:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-03-19T22:52:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-05-08T04:00:03.646000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-05-08T04:00:03.646000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-05-08T04:00:03.646000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-04-22T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-04-22T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The French presidential election will be held on 23rd April (first round) and 7th May (second round). Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Front National\" party.\n\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017).\n\n*** Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the French presidential election and is therefore elected president. ***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 448, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1492792551.990459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1492792551.990459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3300174685486957 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1821103712990916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35687610891836596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 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"open_time": "2017-03-02T20:59:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 132, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32602, "name": "2016-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, 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"2021-09-17T20:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-02-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Throughout his campaign](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2016/09/15/a-running-tally-of-trumps-many-excuses-for-why-he-wont-release-his-tax-returns/?utm_term=.ecf4b3fb2576), and [now in the beginning of his presidency](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/donald-trump-will-not-release-tax-returns-white-house-adviser-n710511), Donald Trump has refused to make public his tax returns. Every elected president since Richard Nixon has done so, and although Trump has claimed that he is [unable to release](http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-i-cant-release-my-tax-return-because-of-audits-219830) his returns because of an ongoing audit, the IRS and other experts have repeatedly said that [there is no restriction preventing](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-income-tax-returns-once-became-public-they-showed-he-didnt-pay-a-cent/2016/05/20/ffa2f63c-1b7c-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html?utm_term=.6558a459d833) their release. \n\nThe tax returns would address several key points of concern: \n\nHis actual net worth, which has been reported as [$3.7B](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferwang/2016/09/28/the-definitive-look-at-donald-trumps-wealth-new/#21e682e67e2d) and self-reported as upwards of [$10B](https://www.gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/donald-trump-net-worth/). Trump's success and wealth are cornerstones of his brand, although his true net worth is currently unknown.\n\nThe amount of tax he pays. Documents released in 2016 showed that he paid [no taxes in 1995](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/28/donald-trumps-defense-of-not-paying-taxes-is-remarkable/?utm_term=.9784adb7c1fd) and may not have for the following 18 years.\n\nThe extent of his foreign holdings, which could become conflicts of interest as he interacts with governments in his official role as president. Making his tax returns public would help sort out the ways Trump could stand to gain personally from foreign policies. Much has been said and written about President Trump's possible [violation of the Constitution's Emoluments clause](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/trumps-ethics-train-wreck/513446/), which prohibits public officials from receiving gifts or payments from other governments. One of the ways to resolve such concerns is through Trump's tax returns.\n\nIn particular, the returns would detail Trump's holdings in Russia. The president's [relationship with Russia](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/feb/22/all-possible-ties-between-trump-and-russia/) has been under scrutiny since the campaign. \n\nAlthough President Trump has continued to refuse calls to release his returns, mechanisms are in place to require their release. [Congress can subpoena the records from the IRS](http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/susan-collins-intelligence-committee-subpoena-trump-tax-returns-needed), which would then become public information. Such a subpoena could be part of an investigation into any of the above issues, particularly an investigation into dealings with Russia.\n\nThe stakes are high, and the information in the tax returns could be politically devastating to the president, if it indeed contains proof of unethical behavior or evidence contradicting the president's assertions of no wrongdoing in foreign dealings. One writer has suggested that [a subpoena of Trump's tax information would trigger the president's resignation](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/getting-rid-of-trump-easy-neither-impeachment-nor_us_58aa697ae4b0b0e1e0e20d2e), as he would rather vacate the office than see his tax returns come to light.\n\n***Will Donald Trump's tax returns become public information during his current term as president?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if at least one year's worth of Donald Trump's tax returns from within the previous ten years becomes public information by any means (and such information is confirmed as genuine by credible sources) on or before Jan. 20, 2021.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1518620551.996506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1518620551.996506, "end_time": 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"In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \n\n> Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\n\n>It shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\n\n> I am really going to do this.\n\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\n\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \n\nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\n\n*** By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?***\n\nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that *fence* does not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 445, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1577819229.963243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1577819229.963243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 287, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6312927463157084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04692327228734546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.168289331023205e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46620188244690036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008433450442919651, 0.0, 1.2569716408375619e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001816345918181213, 0.02048375197486145, 0.15859436888412917, 0.0, 0.006302983041118478, 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [next German federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2017) will elect the members of the Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany, on 24 September 2017.\n\nThe Bundestag has 598 seats allocated with a form of proportional representation called the [Mixed member proportional representation system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_member_proportional). \n\nThe Chancellor of Germany, the head of government of Germany (and the country's effective leader) is usually the chairman of his or her own party and leader of the party/coalition holding a majority of seats in the Bundestag \n\nAt the previous federal election, in 2013, the centre right CDU/CSU alliance (composed of the Christian Democratic Union, and the Christian Social Union) obtained their best result since 1990, with nearly 42% of the vote and just short of 50% of the seats. They successfully negotiated with the Social Democrats (SPD, 25.7%) to form a grand coalition led by Chancellor Angela Merkel.\n\nIncumbent Angela Merkel is generally expected to be confirmed in her position, but her main adversary, Martin Schulz, the former head of the European Parliament and current SPD chairman, is now staging [a surprisingly strong bid to defeat her](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/rise-of-trump-leads-to-an-unexpected-twist-in-germanys-election-a-resurgent-left/2017/02/16/152841e2-f2dc-11e6-9fb1-2d8f3fc9c0ed_story.html).\n\n*** Will Angela Merkel be re-elected as Chancellor of Germany? ***\n\nThis question resolves in the positive if a major news outlet reports the confirmation of Angela Merkel before the end of 2017; it resolves in the negative if a different candidate is elected; finally, it resolves as undecided if by new year eve no candidate has been officially selected by the Bundestag.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 440, "aggregations": { 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Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets forth the exit terms.\n\nBritain's prime minister, Theresa May, has signaled intent to trigger Article 50 by March 2017. 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"2017-02-11T16:13:16.249288Z", "open_time": "2017-02-14T16:12:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-02-15T13:38:43.393522Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-02-15T13:38:43.393522Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-03-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In February 2017, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis [reiterated a commitment](http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/mattis-calms-nerves-on-us-south-china-sea-policy-but-for-how-long/) to diplomacy in the [South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea) - a region recognized as one of the world’s most volatile international hotspots - while asserting that China has overstepped its bounds in the region.\n\nThe sea is known by different names in the countries surrounding it, primarily China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Each of the nations has [asserted territorial claims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) over portions of the sea and its islands, claims which overlap. At stake is control of the busy fishing and shipping region, as well as the vast estimated oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea floor.\n\nThe [Spratly Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands) compose some of the most hotly contested territory. The 14 islands and around 100 reefs and atolls are occupied by military personnel from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.\n\nDisputes over the South China Sea date back to the 1940s, and continue today. China has emerged as the most aggressive claimant, and has built military fortifications, airstrips, and artificial islands in the sea. In 2011 an Indian military vessel in the sea [was warned via radio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea#Chinese_objection_to_Indian_naval_presence_and_oil_exploration) that it was entering Chinese waters. \n\nIn July 2016, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [ruled in favor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_v._China) of the Philippines that China had no historical right to its claimed territory, typically known as the \"nine-dash-line\" map. Neither China nor Taiwan has accepted the ruling.\n\nComments from world leaders suggest that the territorial disputes in the sea could erupt into armed conflict. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said [in his confirmation hearings](http://www.vox.com/world/2017/1/13/14264112/tillerson-south-china-sea-trump): “We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.”\n\nIn response, from China's Global Times newspaper: \"If Trump's diplomatic team shapes future Sino-US ties as it is doing now, the two sides had better prepare for a military clash.\"\n\nTIllerson's remarks have been walked back, particularly by Mattis' statements on his Asian tour, yet tensions in the region remain high.\n\n***Will armed conflict begin in the South China Sea before 2019?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible, verified news outlet reports that an exchange of weapon fire occurred in the South China Sea, between any state actors, to enforce territorial claims, on or before December 31, 2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 435, "aggregations": 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Set in 2014, the [world record](https://www.wired.com/2016/12/nike-two-hour-marathon/) for a standard 26.2 marathon is 2:02:57. Looking to push the limits of human performance, Nike [announced in December 2016](http://news.nike.com/news/2-hour-marathon) a concerted effort, called Breaking2, to complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017. The Oregon company enlisted the help of three of the world's best marathoners: Eritrean Zersenay Tadese, Ethiopian Lelisa Desisa, and Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge. As of this writing, the date of the attempt had not yet been announced.\n\nThe world-record marathon time is already a major human achievement, and pushing against the two-hour mark requires shaving off an additional 3% off the world-record time. Nike is engineering the perfect conditions for a marathon, including a cool track, aerodynamic clothing, and the perfect nutrition and training regimen.\n\nDespite all Nike can do, however, they may be limited by the upper limits of what the body is capable of. A [1991 paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2022559) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58. \n\n***Will one of Nike's Breaking2 runners complete a marathon in under two hours in 2017?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if Nike reports, and an independent body verifies, that a runner completed a 26.2 mile marathon course in less than two hours on or before Dec. 31, 2017.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1513112639.766495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1513112639.766495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.09605393539071064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.664778614646162, 1.3723568696116146, 1.5277250738739623, 0.6353271621668027, 1.3997159075622805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9308340745186745, 0.35662075608238936, 0.0, 0.11300311576606072, 0.8349863617493772, 0.3423731180883308, 0.010676820794838499, 3.7908322176054495e-05, 0.0010901489464489615, 0.0, 0.2275516327750912, 0.7980034138052647, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5812544133268522, 0.0003294578190198636, 0.000588059455297988, 0.05317703566475671, 1.0317138851088257, 0.0, 0.0009704999563037674, 0.0, 0.005626093850426509, 0.00023594478014511954, 0.06463877639256685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003042197750969866, 0.0, 0.0018708537491927582, 0.2041956163586534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002518259061559092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03022172810477587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005132289007417348, 0.0043578466076313275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6636434323397195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044553343099167526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.424432956276217, "coverage": 0.9999114045075247, "baseline_score": 80.991964466426, "spot_peer_score": 10.741689256350325, "peer_archived_score": 14.424432956276217, "baseline_archived_score": 80.991964466426, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.741689256350325 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1512669446.598882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1512669446.598882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9413019393414265, 0.058698060658573574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }