Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=6160
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Missiles with shorter ranges are defined as intermediate-range ballistic missiles, the category in which North Korea's successfully-tested [Musudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-10) missile falls. \n\nEarly development of ICBMs by the United States and Russia paralleled the space race, since the same missiles in development to deliver nuclear warheads were also used as launch vehicles in the Mercury and Gemini programs and in the Russian counterparts of the same programs. \n\nNorth Korea's [Taepodong rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taepodong-2), with a range up to 6,000 km, has similarly been used for space launches, although it's unlikely this rocket was designed to carry a nuclear warhead. Instead, North Korea's two ICBMs possibly in development are the [KN-08 and the longer-range KN-14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KN-08#New_KN-08_based_missile:_KN-14). \n\nAn ICBM test is likely to have international consequences, particularly in light of U.S. President Donald Trump's [assertion](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-north-korea-nuclear-icbm-wont-happen/story?id=44517768) that the test \"won't happen.\"\n\n***When will North Korea test-launch an ICBM?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is test-launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations. 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"Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "article-50-triggered-by-uk-by-end-of-march-2017", "author_id": 101200, "author_username": "paulgabrielsen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2017-02-03T21:00:17.227795Z", "published_at": "2017-02-03T20:59:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.983409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2017-02-03T20:59:32Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-03-30T15:27:36.253000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-03-30T15:27:36.253000Z", "open_time": "2017-02-03T20:59:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32605, "name": "2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 430, "title": "Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017?", "created_at": "2017-02-03T21:00:17.227795Z", "open_time": "2017-02-03T20:59:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-02-05T04:48:50.470473Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-02-05T04:48:50.470473Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-03-30T15:27:36.253000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-03-30T15:27:36.253000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-03-30T15:27:36.253000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the world wondered \"What happens next?\" The vote, although a referendum vote to assess the will of the people, did not by itself cause the UK to leave the European Union. The mechanism for doing so is Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, and Brexit does not formally begin until that article is triggered.\n\n[The Article states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union) that any EU member country can decide to leave the Union by formally notifying the European Council. Upon notification, the exiting country commences a two-year period of negotiation to, in essence, re-negotiate the country's new relationship with the rest of the EU. The final agreement must be ratified by the European Council, in consultation with the European Parliament.\n\nTriggering Article 50 is risky by design, however. If the agreement is not ratified within the two-year timeframe, the exiting country goes away empty-handed, with regards to formal relationships with the remaining EU countries.\n\nUK Prime Minister Theresa May [has said](http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37532364) that she will trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017. Although [a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-brexit-bill.html?action=click&contentCollection=Europe&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article) requires that May secure Parliamentary approval to proceed, a preliminary vote in Feb. 2017 [showed strong support](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/world/europe/theresa-may-expected-to-win-parliaments-ok-on-brexit-bill.html), likely clearing the way for May to trigger Article 50.\n\n***Will Brexit proceed as planned, with notice served to the European Council under Article 50, by the end of March 2017?***\n\n*This question will resolve as positive if a credible news outlet reports that Article 50 has been formally triggered by the United Kingdom on or before March 31, 2017.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 430, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1488274729.598096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, 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"2017-02-01T17:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-02-03T17:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-02-03T17:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-12-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-03-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-03-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-03-27T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Case-Schiller 20-city composite housing index](https://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsa-index) is a well-reference tracker of US home prices. \n\nPublished monthly, the index was (arguably) in decline from its inception in late 2006 until mid 2012. Since then it has seen a steady rise (underlying seasonal fluctuations) from a low of 134, to 192 as of November 2016.\n\nThis question addresses whether this upward trend will continue, or whether we'll enter into a new decline. As a specific criterion, we'll ask:\n\n*** Will the high point of the 20-city Case-Schiller index in 2017 be higher than that in 2016? ***\n\nResolution is positive if the highest reported value of [the index](https://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsa-index) for 2017 (likely reported in winter 2018) exceeds the highest of 2016 (which in turn would be at least 192.14).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 429, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1490979954.065803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1490979954.065803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.766273128996618 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"actual_close_time": "2017-06-15T21:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Solid metallic hydrogen has apparently been [recently created in the lab](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/diamond-vise-turns-hydrogen-metal-potentially-ending-80-year-quest). If verified (see some [doubts raised here](http://www.nature.com/news/physicists-doubt-bold-report-of-metallic-hydrogen-1.21379)) this could be a big deal (see [accompanying question on citations](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/370/solid-metallic-hydrogen-how-much-impact/)) as the substance has been theorized for decades and may have very interesting properties. \n\nAlong with superconductivity (see [accompanying question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/371/solid-metallic-hydrogen-will-it-superconduct-at-room-temperature/)) a key issue is whether solid metallic hydrogen will be *metastable* at room temperature, i.e. stay in the same form even when the ultra-high pressure is released. The researchers apparently plan to test this after doing as many other tests as possible on their sample.\n\n*** Will a solid metallic hydrogen be metastable at room temperature? ***\n\nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2020 a credible preprint or published paper reports that (a) solid metallic hydrogen has been created (by the Harvard group or another), and (b) remains stable at > 0 centigrade and < 2 atm of pressure for > 1 hour.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 427, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1497541403.708968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1497541403.708968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.1790597273969042 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8479754994381549, 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"2017-02-01T02:53:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Although no legislation regarding artificial intelligence appears to be on the immediate horizon in the US (see [pertinent question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/)) this may not be the case in the EU. Per [This Guardian article](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/12/give-robots-personhood-status-eu-committee-argues) (among other reports), a proposed European Parliament motion would include a number of provisions including a call to:\n\n* Create a European agency for robotics and AI,\n\n* Consider granting highly capable AIs and robots \"personhood\" status (akin to corporate personhood),\n\n* Create an advisory code of conduct for AI and robotic engineers,\n\n* Create a mandatory insurance scheme to cover damages done by autonomous agents.\n\nThe text of the proposal can be [found here](http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML%2BCOMPARL%2BPE-582.443%2B01%2BDOC%2BPDF%2BV0//EN). According to the above Guardian article, \n\n> The full house of the European Parliament will vote on the draft proposals in February, which will need to be approved by absolute majority.\n\n*** Will a resolution substantially resembling this proposed resolution be passed by the European parliament in 2017? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a majority vote of the European parliament is taken in favor of this or a very similar proposal in by end of 2017.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 421, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1485824967.006399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1485824967.006399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2306170742136834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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"2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper]( http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf\n)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\n\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\n\n> Given that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\n\n> Right ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\n\n> If that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\n\n*** So, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? ***\n\nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. 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"2018-01-03T20:22:03.602000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-01-03T20:22:03.602000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The game of Go originated in China over 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) has traditionally challenged computers, and has made it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence. \n\nThe last several years have seen stunning advances by artificial Go contestants. Google's [AlphaGo](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) program has seen particular success. After sealing a stunning [4-1](http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/15/11213518/alphago-deepmind-go-match-5-result) victory over Go grandmaster Lee Sedol, an updated version of Alphago, [playing in online forums using the account name 'Master'](https://qz.com/877721/the-ai-master-bested-the-worlds-top-go-players-and-then-revealed-itself-as-googles-alphago-in-disguise/), has swept through the Go field, defeating nearly all of the world’s top players in the course of 60 online matches without registering a single loss.\n\nWill a human Go player beat AlphaGo (or one of its publicly revealed aliases) in one or more single tournament games, based on the currently established Go rules, during 2017?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1514718396.046436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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"created_at": "2017-01-03T14:35:47.339017Z", "open_time": "2017-01-04T14:32:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2017-01-06T14:32:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2017-01-06T14:32:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-02-06T16:48:34.665000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-02-06T16:48:34.665000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-02-06T16:48:34.665000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Emergence of the Zika virus in 2016 lent additional urgency to efforts intended to curb the rate of mosquito-borne disease transmission. \n\nAs transmitters of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, Zika, and other diseases, mosquitoes are the [world's deadliest animal](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Most-Lethal-Animal-Mosquito-Week). Of particular concern is the species *Aedes aegypti* which is the primary transmitter of Zika virus in the US.\n\nTwo approaches to controlling mosquito populations are moving forward. One involves genetically modifying male mosquitoes such that any of their offspring will die as larvae. [Oxitec](https://www.wired.com/2016/11/florida-votes-release-millions-zika-fighting-mosquitos/) is pursuing this strategy, and has recieved preliminary approval from the FDA to proceed with a trial in the US following previous trials in [Brazil, Panama, and the Cayman Islands](http://www.oxitec.com/board-florida-keys-mosquito-control-district-approves-investigational-agreement-monroe-county/). In November, Monroe County, FL, which includes the Florida Keys, [voted](https://www.wired.com/2016/11/florida-votes-release-millions-zika-fighting-mosquitos/) in a non-binding decision to allow the trial in their county. Final details of the trial, including location and start date, are forthcoming.\n\nAnother approach does not rely on genetic modification. Mosquitoes infected with [*Wolbachia*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolbachia#Applications_to_human-related_infections) bacterial parasites cannot transmit disease, because the parasite interferes with viral replication in the mosquito's cells. *Wolbachia* can also be used to sterilize mosquitoes, preventing them from reproducing. The latter method requires no genetic modification and [fewer regulatory requirements](https://www.statnews.com/2016/10/26/mosquitoes-wolbachia-bacteria-virus/). Several initiatives, including [Debug](https://blog.debugproject.com/2016/10/were-trying-to-reduce-mosquito-borne.html) and [MosquitoMate](http://mosquitomate.com/) are pursuing the *Wolbachia* route.\n\n***Will mosquitoes that have been either genetically modified or infected with Wolbachia be released in the U.S. in 2017?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news outlet or press release from an organization involved in mosquito control reports an intentional public release (including a small-scale \"test\" release) of treated mosquito in the United States (including Puerto Rico) with the intent of mosquito control and reduction of mosquito-borne disease on or before Dec 31, 2017.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 414, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1486352013.174424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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"resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "From looking at a [list of predictions by major banks](http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-for-2017-2016-12/#2350-bmo-7), it would appear that there is a high degree of consensus and a low degree of uncertainty regarding where the US stock market will stand at the end of 2017. \nThe median S&P 500 index prediction from these prognosticators for a year from now is 2,325, with a low estimate of 2,300 and a high estimate of 2,450. These predictions conform to the usual situation in which [stock market forecasters are generally bullish and often wrong](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/your-money/wall-streets-annual-stock-forecasts-bullish-and-often-wrong.html).\n\nAt the close of trading on December 27, 2016, the S&P 500 index ([as measured by CME-traded near-month E-mini prices](http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini-sandp500.html)) stood near its all-time high of 2,277 set a few days prior, making it quite likely that the market will finish 2016 solidly in the black. Indeed, during the course of the Obama presidency, Wall Street has had an extraordinary run. After hitting an ominously suggestive intraday low of 666 on March 9th, 2009, a few weeks into Obama's first term, the index has turned in a 340% gain. This performance conforms to the observation that historically, [the stock market has done substantially better during Democratic administrations](http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlazaroff/2016/07/26/democrats-vs-republicans-who-is-better-for-the-stock-market/#66be59095bfb). (Since Herbert Hoover, the average annualized 4-year return during Republican administrations was under 2%, whereas the average annualized 4-year return during Democratic administrations was nearly 11%). [This paper from the Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200469/200469pap.pdf) emphasizes the ever-salient caution to not conflate correlation with causation. \n\nThat said, will the S&P 500, as measured by the last traded price of 2017 of the CME E-Mini March 2018 Futures contract, stand above 2,250 at the close of 2017?", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 411, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1498817624.40455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1498817624.40455, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6639438357047246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0017867105110734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8049738601577547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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{ "id": 410, "title": "How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "how-will-recent-claims-of-234-seti-signals-in-sdss-data-be-treated-by-the-community", "author_id": 101120, "author_username": "VLT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2016-12-22T16:30:12.713154Z", "published_at": "2016-12-23T16:27:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.507906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2016-12-23T16:27:53Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-03-01T16:28:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-03-01T16:28:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-06-25T23:22:44.922000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-06-25T23:22:44.922000Z", "open_time": "2016-12-23T16:27:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32604, "name": "2016-2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 410, "title": "How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community?", "created_at": "2016-12-22T16:30:12.713154Z", "open_time": "2016-12-23T16:27:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2016-12-25T16:27:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2016-12-25T16:27:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-06-25T23:22:44.922000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-06-25T23:22:44.922000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-06-25T23:22:44.922000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-03-01T16:28:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-03-01T16:28:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [Breakthrough Listen](https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/Initiative/1) project, together with [SETI](http://www.seti.org/), is now investigating [odd pulsating light signals](http://www.space.com/34541-alien-life-search-possible-seti-signals.html) observed by astronomers from Laval University, [who suggest](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03031) the signals may originate from extraterrestrial civilizations. Of the 2.5 million stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the team claimed that 234 of them exhibit characteristics identical to that of the Extraterrestrial Intelligence (ETI) signal predicted by the same group in a [previous publication in 2012](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-6256/144/6/181). \n\nDue to the study's controversial conclusions, [many are criticizing](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2109139-strange-signals-from-234-stars-could-be-et-or-human-error/) their report, noting a high likelihood that the observed anomalies may be results of human error, rather than signals emitted by ET.\n\nThe claim of ETI detection, as an international protocol, requires an exhaustive evaluation of all other possible natural explanations before drawing any conclusions. Independent verifications are required with at least two or more telescopes. \n\nThe authors have not ruled out other potential explanations, and speculate that the mysterious signal could be due to \"highly peculiar chemical compositions in a small fraction of galactic halo stars.\" But their data came from a small number of stars, centered around the Sun, which have a very narrow spectral range. \n\nCurrently, the discovery [has, according to some commentators, a score of 0 to 1](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2109139-strange-signals-from-234-stars-could-be-et-or-human-error/) on the [Rio Scale](http://archive.seti.org/epo/news/features/rio-scale.php), a ranking system used to evaluate the significance of any observed extraterrestrial phenomena, with 10 signifying a valid and important discovery.\n\n***Will Borra et al. paper get at least 10 citations in the coming months?*** \n\nThe [Borra et al. paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03031) was submitted on October 10th, 2016 to arXiv, and was [published](http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/128/969/114201/pdf) on October 14th, 2016 by Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific (PASP). There is one citation of it thus far, according to [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=16726480431992645229&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5&hl=en).\n\nThis question will resolve positively if, per Google Scholar, a minimum of 10 citations is listed by July 15th, 2017.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1488378450.870875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1488378450.870875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26605533748075594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.345432444222118, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In a [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.02269) submitted to arXiv, Dutch physicist [Erik Verlinde](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Verlinde) supported the [Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modified_Newtonian_dynamics) model of gravity, which does not require [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter), to explain phenomena such as the observed [rotational curve of stars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galaxy_rotation_curve).\n\nTwo days after Verlinde's submission, on Nov 9, 2016, [another paper (S. McGaugh et al.)](http://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.201101) published in *Physical Review Letters*. Based on an analysis of 153 galaxies, researchers found that any particular dark matter (halo) model was unnecessary to account for observed radial acceleration, while MOND had anticipated such a result more than three decades ago. As of writing, the McGaugh et al. paper, including its previous [preprint version on arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.05917), has been cited 13 times, according to [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=14106718381487099416&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&sciodt=0,5).\n\nIn this new paradigm of updating MOND theory, researchers' findings offer an alternate view that dark matter, a mainstay of modern astronomy, may be an illusion. Other teams are working to verify such a claim, with [one group](http://www.physicsandastronomy.pitt.edu/people/arthur-kosowsky) tweaking galaxy simulations to test if the results are reproducible in comparable galaxies. \n\n***Do these papers represent a sustained resurgence in (the relatively small amount of) interest in MOND?***\n\nThis question will resolve as positive if, by March 1, 2017, Google Scholar shows 50 or more total citations of the McGaugh et al. paper ([which had 13 at question launch](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=14106718381487099416&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&sciodt=0,5)) and the Verlinde paper ([which had 5 at question launch](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=13085847397060900930&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5&hl=en))", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1485906417.5009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 408, "title": "Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come?", "created_at": "2016-12-22T15:49:04.879354Z", "open_time": "2016-12-23T15:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2016-12-25T15:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2016-12-25T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-04-25T03:30:00.427000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-04-25T03:30:00.427000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-04-25T03:30:00.427000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-04-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Astronomers may have observed [vacuum birefringence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_polarization), a quantum effect predicted by the theory of [quantum electrodynamics (QED)](http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Forces/qed.html) in the 1930s, by studying light behavior in the highly magnetized empty space around [neutron star RX J1856.5-3754](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RX_J1856.5-3754). \n\nOrdinary [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum) is generally thought to be empty with no effect on the path travelled by light, but in the presence of strong magnetic fields, a quantum effect can emerge and modify the space, as in the case of this neutron star's strong magnetic fields that permeate its surroundings.\n\nThe team submitted their findings (Mignani et al.) to [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.08323) in Oct 2016, and published their work in the [Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society](http://mnras.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/11/01/mnras.stw2798.abstract) in Nov. 2016. \n\nThe researchers analyzed data from the [Very Large Telescope (VLT)](http://www.eso.org/public/usa/teles-instr/paranal/) and found the boosting effect of vacuum birefringence realized in the affected propagation of light in the space around the neutron star.\n\nThis is the first direct observational evidence supporting vacuum birefringence effects predicted by QED. The next generation of telescopes, including the [European Extremely Large Telescope](https://www.eso.org/sci/facilities/eelt/), will likely participate in future observational tests.\n\nAs of this writing, the Mignani et al. paper has not yet been cited by any other studies.\n\n***Will there be significant followup work referencing this research?***\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we will assess via the number of citations of Mignani et al. paper. As of writing no referenced has been made yet, and for this question to resolve as positive, there needs to be a minimum of 10 citations, on or before Nov 1, 2017, per [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=Evidence+for+vacuum+birefringence+from+the+first+optical+polarimetry+measurement+of+the+isolated+neutron+star+RX%5C%2C+J1856.5−3754&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C5&as_sdtp=).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1490996001.340525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1490996001.340525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.610616437773637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32604, "name": "2016-2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 407, "title": "Seeing single photons: more research to come?", "created_at": "2016-12-22T15:40:02.103050Z", "open_time": "2016-12-23T15:39:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2016-12-25T15:39:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2016-12-25T15:39:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2017-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2017-02-25T08:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2017-02-25T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-02-25T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The question of whether large-scale quantum effects could be in operation in the brain is quite controversial (see for example \n[this argument that decoherence in the brain is ultra fast](http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/brain.html) and [this recent question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/31/experimental-tests-of-quantum-effects-in-cognition/) about slower decoherence). Yet it's clear that quantum mechanics operates in the brain, and that many biological processes may well use quantum effects on the small scale in ways that can effect much larger scales. \n\nAs a fascinating example, it has long been known that the human eye/brain system can detect just a few photons of light, and a [recent study](http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms12172) has quantified this at an unprecedented level. The experimenting team tested the human eye's sensitivity using technology developed in quantum optics and quantum information studies. In conjuncture with psychophysics protocol, they found that the human eyes have the ability to detect the presence of individual photons with a high success rate. The team performed over 30,000 trials with result published in *[Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms12172)* on July 19, 2016.\n\nWith such a high-confidence trial, scientists anticipate further testing on humans' ability to directly observe quantum properties via the applied techniques used in the experiment. The findings also raise the question of how biological systems are enabled to attain such sensitivity.\n\n***Will this first evidence demonstrating direct perception of a single photon by the human eyes initiate more interest to perform similar testing in the near future?***\n\nWe will use the number of citations of the paper published in *Nature Communications* as a measurement. As of quesion open, the paper has been cited by 5 according to Google Scholar. For this question to resolve as positive, [Google Scholar](https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=351074569634749150&hl=en&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5) must report 10 or more citations by Sept 1, 2017.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1489076999.187211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1489076999.187211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8655771880258409 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 401, "title": "2018 Winograd Schema AI challenge: significant progress?", "created_at": "2016-12-13T23:08:55.895962Z", "open_time": "2016-12-14T22:50:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2016-12-16T22:50:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2016-12-16T22:50:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-06-13T13:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-06-13T13:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-06-13T13:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-02-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-02-10T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The \"Winograd Schema Challenge\" was devised by Hector Levesque, to test the ability of a machine intelligences system to understand the meaning of various sentences in a way that goes beyond pattern matching of syntactics. A question might be, for example:\n\n> Babar wonders how he can get new clothing. Luckily, a very rich old man who has always been fond of little elephants understands right away that he is longing for a fine suit. As he likes to make people happy, he gives him his wallet.\n\n> Who is longing for a fine suit? Who likes to make people happy? Who gives a wallet? Who is a wallet given to?\n\nThese questions cannot be answered effectively by the sort of pattern matching that underlies much machine transcription, translation, etc., but humans can do them fairly readily (with a typical human scoring 90%+ on this sort of test). \n\nMachine systems are tested against this schema in annual competitions [sponsored by Nuance](http://www.nuance.com/company/news-room/press-releases/Winograd-Schema-Challenge.docx) and organized by [coomonsensereasoning.org](http://commonsensereasoning.org/winograd.html). In the [latest competition](http://whatsnext.nuance.com/in-the-labs/winograd-schema-challenge-2016-results/), the best competitor scores about 60%. (Because many of the questions are binary, this is not a terribly impressive score; the full 2016 question list is [here](http://www.cs.nyu.edu/faculty/davise/papers/PDPChallenge.xml).)\n\nThe next competition will be held at the [2018 AAAI conference](http://www.aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI/aaai18.php). The prize will be awarded (assuming the same rules hold) for a score of 90%. We'll set a lower bar to keep it interesting:\n\n*** Will the top entrant in the 2018 Winograd challenge score 75% or more? ***\n\nThere are two rounds, and this applies to the first round only. 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"scheduled_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-11-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Amazon has recently launched an [\"Alexa Prize\" competition](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize) toward developing an effective \"Socialbot\" that can \"[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology.\"\n\nTwelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete from April until November 2017, using Amazon employees, users, and judges to narrow down to finalists in August, then have a final competition with a 3-judge panel in November.\n\nThe best team will win $500K, and there is an additional $1M prize if \"their socialbot achieves the grand challenge of conversing coherently and engagingly with humans on popular topics for 20 minutes.\"\n\nAs specified in the [FAQ](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/faq), this is *not* a Turing test – the winning bot may be readily distinguishable from a human. It should, however, be \"human like\" in its ability to converse. Details of the judging procedure are in the [official rules](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/contest-rules). In brief, each judge has a \"red button\" they can press when feel that as a user they would no longer enjoy talking to the bot.", "resolution_criteria": "> If and only if the Entrant Team that wins the 2017 Prize has a mean Finals Score equal to 4.0 or higher and maintains a conversation with at least two of the three Interactors for twenty (20) minutes without being stopped by the Judges, Sponsor will provide $1,000,000 U.S. dollars...\n\nso, *** Will Amazon award the $1M prize? ***\n\nResolution will be by announcement by Amazon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 400, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1510696826.397872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1510696826.397872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.24305506306083297 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3547909330529046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8634584609444739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8644847935317267, 0.5654667606195058, 0.012715044525389515, 0.2218950619316045, 0.6356800736251341, 1.3030859264004793, 0.2699770170287534, 0.3704164410767862, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0016456269758058238, 2.3983689825554184, 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.1005619062490637, 0.8948374224172492, 1.3815392208522939, 0.4452257211395179, 0.08096130379785854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4253129006383238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.036486151855658, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.0, 0.41981095475247004, 1.3481013939310844, 0.5105438860896632, 0.13357055402039977, 0.01732880491444991, 0.5329991950934476, 0.14249030555976944, 0.023193516142010238, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.03836121146047684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023451987212490845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31802490556199314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061136772129365816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011415200401430712 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.333353271312024, "coverage": 0.9998390917497426, "baseline_score": 46.135416880569984, "spot_peer_score": -6.59239952585481, "peer_archived_score": 17.333353271312024, "baseline_archived_score": 46.135416880569984, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.59239952585481 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1509214104.656038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1509214104.656038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9067646253818079, 0.09323537461819212 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amazon has recently launched an [\"Alexa Prize\" competition](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize) toward developing an effective \"Socialbot\" that can \"[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology.\"\n\nTwelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete from April until November 2017, using Amazon employees, users, and judges to narrow down to finalists in August, then have a final competition with a 3-judge panel in November.\n\nThe best team will win $500K, and there is an additional $1M prize if \"their socialbot achieves the grand challenge of conversing coherently and engagingly with humans on popular topics for 20 minutes.\"\n\nAs specified in the [FAQ](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/faq), this is *not* a Turing test – the winning bot may be readily distinguishable from a human. It should, however, be \"human like\" in its ability to converse. Details of the judging procedure are in the [official rules](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/contest-rules). In brief, each judge has a \"red button\" they can press when feel that as a user they would no longer enjoy talking to the bot." }, { "id": 399, "title": "Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017", "author_id": 101120, "author_username": "VLT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2016-12-13T17:50:43.535653Z", "published_at": "2016-12-13T17:48:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.250382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2016-12-13T17:48:04Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2017-07-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-07-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-01-03T20:13:24.119000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-01-03T20:13:24.119000Z", "open_time": "2016-12-13T17:48:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32604, "name": "2016-2017 Leaderboard", "slug": "2016_2017_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 399, "title": "Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?", "created_at": "2016-12-13T17:50:43.535653Z", "open_time": "2016-12-13T17:48:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2016-12-15T17:48:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2016-12-15T17:48:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-01-03T20:13:24.119000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-01-03T20:13:24.119000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-01-03T20:13:24.119000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2017-07-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2017-07-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "We've had a number of questions concerning self-driving cars. But many of the tricky part of self-driving cars are eliminated if you can do away with the roads, lights, pedestrians, other cars, etc. – That is: fly!\n\nTo fight against city congestion, [Airbus Group and A3](http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/news-media/corporate-magazine/Forum-88/My-Kind-Of-Flyover.html) teamed up to develop project [Vahana](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/17/airbus-to-test-driverless-flying-taxis-in-2017.html). Officially started in February 2016, Vahana is a self-piloted flying vehicle platform that is designed to transport individual passenger and cargo. \n\nVahana aims to reduce urban cities' traffic with flying self-driving taxis, and the project's team admits that, although ambitious, their scheduled first test flight of the prototype in late 2017 is feasible as many of the needed technologies are close to becoming available. The group currently faces the challenge of complying with flying regulations and acquiring necessary approvals from the Federal Aviation Administration.\n\nThe team anticipates putting flying taxis into production by 2020. \n\n***Will Airbus successfully flight-test a prototype airborne taxi in 2017?*** \n\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on or by December 31, 2017, a successful prototype demonstration is reported in a published story or a press release.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1500051626.527019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1500051626.527019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.2046229198896976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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"actual_close_time": "2017-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Scheduled for release in March 2017, it was indicated from patents filed by Nintendo that the [Nintendo Switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Switch) will have [\"standard\" gaming features](http://www.techradar.com/news/nintendo-switch-release-date-news-and-features) like the touchscreen, compass, GPS, motion tracking, image recognition, and *image projection.* \n\nIn the [series of patents](http://www.polygon.com/2016/8/11/12441972/nintendo-nx-detachable-controller-gesture-based) filed, most of the patents' functionality have been described in good detail, except for the usage of image projection. \n\nIt is easy to tell whether all filed patents will be found in the final product, and the lack of detail might be attributable to uncertainty or secrecy. So let's speculate:\n\n***Will the image projection feature be part of the new Nintendo Switch?***", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1485499322.747884, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1485499322.747884, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.31089832232288045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07875121069851097, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9592499331825896, 0.0, 0.9674070232835761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33043163511098544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 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have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?", "short_title": "RoboCup Ultimate Goal Achieved Before 2050?", "url_title": "RoboCup Ultimate Goal Achieved Before 2050?", "slug": "robocup-ultimate-goal-achieved-before-2050", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2016-12-09T23:45:21.010136Z", "published_at": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:29:38.744843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T23:45:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:45:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 277, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [RoboCup](http://www.robocup.org/objective) (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In [a paper published in 1995](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.49.7511) the creators of the RoboCup describe the initiative as \n\n>an attempt to foster AI and intelligent robotics research by providing a standard problem where [a] wide range of technologies can be integrated and examined.\n\nThe stated ultimate goal of the RoboCup Initiative is:\n\n> By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \n\nAs a part of this process, annual RoboCup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [RoboCup organization](https://www.robocup.org/) announces that its [ultimate goal](https://web.archive.org/web/20230120164353/https://www.robocup.org/objective) for robotic soccer has been accomplished before January 1, 2050.", "fine_print": "* If the RoboCup organization or a clear successor organization ceases to exist this question will be **Annulled**.\n* This question defers to announcements by the RoboCup organization, the rules and language regarding their ultimate goal may change so long as it refers to robots winning a game of soccer against professional human soccer players.\n * If the RoboCup organization still exists at the time of resolution and has not announced that its ultimate goal has been accomplished as described this question will resolve as **No**.\n* This question was updated on 16 November 2023 to clarify that a qualifying event must be a game of soccer played by professional human soccer players against robots.\n* This question was updated on 28 March 2023 to clarify some ambiguities and provide better context. The question text prior to this update is below:\n\n>Title: Robocup Challenge Win before 2050?\n>\n>The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\n>\n>> By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \n>\n>On the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\n>\n>***Will Robots win the Robocup challenge, beating professional soccer players before 2050?***\n>\n>This question will resolve as **Yes** if a team of humanoid robots wins a professional match of soccer before January 1, 2050, as determined by the [Robocup challenge organization](http://www.robocup.org/objective).", "post_id": 397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757471368.099237, "end_time": 1767300071.209382, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757471368.099237, "end_time": 1767300071.209382, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5452362583768012 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.39552018191289257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03127880766323334, 0.006974644541633825, 0.2820254306361136, 0.0, 0.0019752081359880203, 0.0, 0.4996217830277301, 0.0, 0.06716325951588176, 0.007164640961636314, 0.05179588078607206, 0.8101246380715145, 0.9358549791148553, 0.0013291485825369974, 0.09504622292907638, 0.027901965517019074, 0.4567260361208146, 0.3154522282879157, 0.0008462645677078832, 0.06704195371051114, 0.7598930787478659, 0.8979984277082493, 1.4597112311061e-05, 0.0, 0.00011094087516191182, 0.0, 0.4169756635085373, 0.018411322978348927, 0.9701649800826618, 0.15684227965102437, 0.0006498011530348219, 0.8539271664191012, 0.0, 0.014486966230970217, 0.028026159202653327, 0.0025245694323016597, 0.6513234197592315, 0.004574842915754822, 0.1972965768444309, 0.010801226728087233, 0.0005714540366797866, 1.1132774759459698, 0.740056324888812, 0.005715794685265949, 0.0012008175401169536, 1.3149839706366082, 3.8602653221062355, 0.005002890260096344, 0.0, 0.14541084598691512, 0.046555980487157776, 2.326625396809825, 0.003017955212145228, 0.0, 0.0, 4.028274258489537e-05, 1.161572639163173, 8.951117650779506e-06, 0.0052303139591666796, 0.0, 0.2858357757511783, 0.5009954846506066, 1.4951449111702275, 0.027382100988699896, 0.0, 7.317098159750213e-05, 0.3888339589074099, 0.7835730032142714, 3.172842348588142e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21357263866702764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4608439051643842, 2.1062504129983246, 0.8331481791910764, 0.36124002757941004, 0.0, 0.21951744778301616, 0.00030782632890238805, 0.07205917284628821, 0.0, 0.00027027035667355064, 0.0038171145631115356, 1.5534559951370548, 2.2731481432537627e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.23871649396485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2354510571757085 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289510.642155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289510.642155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6640908218067956, 0.3359091781932044 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 610, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [RoboCup](http://www.robocup.org/objective) (short for Robot World Cup Initiative) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The RoboCup Federation hosts annual RoboCup competitions where robotic teams compete in soccer matches. In [a paper published in 1995](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.49.7511) the creators of the RoboCup describe the initiative as \n\n>an attempt to foster AI and intelligent robotics research by providing a standard problem where [a] wide range of technologies can be integrated and examined.\n\nThe stated ultimate goal of the RoboCup Initiative is:\n\n> By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \n\nAs a part of this process, annual RoboCup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events." } ] }
