Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=620
{ "count": 6282, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=600", "results": [ { "id": 39079, "title": "Will \"Freakier Friday\" receive a Tomatometer rating below 50% on Rotten Tomatoes?", "short_title": "Will \"Freakier Friday\" receive a Tomatom", "url_title": "Will \"Freakier Friday\" receive a Tomatom", "slug": "will-freakier-friday-receive-a-tomatom", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:35.293357Z", "published_at": "2025-08-06T21:07:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.118696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:35.503374Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T21:07:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38408, "title": "Will \"Freakier Friday\" receive a Tomatometer rating below 50% on Rotten Tomatoes?", "created_at": "2025-08-09T06:44:35.293840Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T21:07:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:14.304036Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T22:07:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"3cb98ce2-e77d-48e0-885a-bdd12e4fd1f9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question will be based on the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage displayed for the film \"Freakier Friday\" (2025) on Rotten Tomatoes, specifically as it appears at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 11, 2025. Should the score be positioned precisely at the boundary between two defined intervals, the outcome will be assigned to the higher interval. In the event that the required score is not accessible at the scheduled assessment time, the relevant page will be revisited at six-hour intervals until the necessary information is published. All evaluation and resolution procedures will reference the aforementioned date and time. The final assessment will not occur before August 11, 2025, at 00:00 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39079, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"3cb98ce2-e77d-48e0-885a-bdd12e4fd1f9\"}}`" }, { "id": 39075, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? (2028)", "short_title": "Coalition wins next Australian federal election? (2028)", "url_title": "Coalition wins next Australian federal election? (2028)", "slug": "coalition-wins-next-australian-federal-election-2028", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-08T06:04:34.889311Z", "published_at": "2025-08-08T17:29:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T13:04:06.451342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-08T17:30:09.445027Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-05-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-09T17:29:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38405, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? (2028)", "created_at": "2025-08-08T06:04:34.889693Z", "open_time": "2025-08-09T17:29:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-13T17:29:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-13T17:29:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-05-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-05-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. In May 2025, Australia held a general election to elect the 48th Parliament of Australia. The next general election (for the 49th Parliament) will occur in 2028 at the latest.\n\nQuestion significantly copied from the [2022 general election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/) by @chrisjbillington", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, following the next Australian federal election, the Prime Minister is supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition or by the Liberal Party. This includes any MP who sits in the Liberal party room.\n\nIf it remains in doubt who the Prime Minister will be following the election. This question will resolve according to who the Prime Minister is at the end of the first sitting period of parliament.\n\nIf following the first sitting, there is no Prime Minister, this question will resolve based upon whoever first becomes Prime Minister after that.", "fine_print": "If the political structure of Australia changes such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in an elected legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThis question refers to the first Australian federal election that takes place after the 2025 election.", "post_id": 39075, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760447035.553643, "end_time": 1763186302.368, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760447035.553643, "end_time": 1763186302.368, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2907270881468832 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.39246060801706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. In May 2025, Australia held a general election to elect the 48th Parliament of Australia. The next general election (for the 49th Parliament) will occur in 2028 at the latest.\n\nQuestion significantly copied from the [2022 general election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/) by @chrisjbillington" }, { "id": 39056, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-shigeru-ishiba-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-japan-before-september-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-05T14:14:34.348130Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T14:14:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.094527Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-05T14:15:24.218708Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T02:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T02:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-02T02:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-05T14:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T09:43:37.093425Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T09:43:37.093425Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38391, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-05T14:14:34.348818Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T14:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T14:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-26T14:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-02T02:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T02:11:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T02:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\r\n\r\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\r\n\r\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\r\n\r\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Shigeru Ishiba ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 1, 2025 for any reason.", "fine_print": "If Ishiba officially announces that he will resign, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if the effective date is after August 2025 or depends on a specific event taking place, such as a leadership race.", "post_id": 39056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756692161.350688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756692161.350688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22960100668906736 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.3283122297539203, 1.6416462754024805, 0.20535702192391406, 0.5867657374994121, 1.5242292196998668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39088007356647586, 0.3521798733422183, 0.39101899423584097, 0.0, 1.0086731026459947, 1.031530097588879, 0.0, 1.6355445202678331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05859894700002152, 0.0, 0.5975304831747358, 0.0, 0.46767368764395845, 0.0, 0.01925940697571402, 1.6624432979640864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03937847168643575, 0.0, 0.049392311699683535, 0.0, 0.04816268109337523, 0.10900026354437568, 0.0, 1.2016351946257595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01792219306865984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4484003007608887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5261741208312314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1026550047382594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5383427616147872, 0.0, 0.003399843905054539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19079473507851424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10293214533199496, 0.8670152305960063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030077466508578274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004152744945805291, 0.0, 0.361026818996463, 0.0, 0.0030666371122678787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12399754544120198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008096539456965414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 306, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\r\n\r\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\r\n\r\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\r\n\r\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations." }, { "id": 39045, "title": "Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?", "short_title": "Will any U.S. state experience 10% permanent population loss 2025 to 2035?", "url_title": "Will any U.S. state experience 10% permanent population loss 2025 to 2035?", "slug": "will-any-us-state-experience-10-permanent-population-loss-2025-to-2035", "author_id": 276144, "author_username": "Entropy77", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-03T00:21:15.041643Z", "published_at": "2025-08-06T23:17:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T11:39:13.525798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-06T23:19:08.278680Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-07T23:17:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38386, "title": "Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?", "created_at": "2025-08-03T00:21:15.042085Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T23:17:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-11T23:17:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-11T23:17:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Climate change is increasingly rendering parts of the United States less habitable. In recent years, multiple states have faced mounting climate-related stresses, including extreme heat, severe storms, flooding, drought, sea-level rise, and wildfires. These events can lead to repeated displacement, loss of life, and escalating economic disruption.\n\nSome insurers are pulling out of high-risk states such as Florida and California, citing mounting losses from natural disasters. This, in turn, has driven up insurance costs or left some homeowners unable to insure their property at all. In certain areas, property values have sharply declined or become functionally worthless, trapping homeowners in unsellable and unlivable homes.\n\nMajor cities and rural communities alike have seen repeated infrastructure damage from hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or extreme temperatures. In places like the Gulf Coast, Southwest, and Western states, power grid strain, water shortages, and air quality degradation are becoming chronic. In some regions, FEMA disaster declarations are now annual events.\n\nHistorically, the U.S. has experienced climate-driven migration before. During the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, prolonged drought and land degradation forced hundreds of thousands of people, particularly from Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and surrounding areas, to migrate westward, most notably to California. That migration reshaped the cultural and economic landscape of multiple states.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if on January 1, 2035, at least one U.S. state has a permanent population that is 90% or less of its population on January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for this question will be U.S. Census Bureau data, however if it is unavailable or found to be unreliable then another source may be used.\n\nTemporary evacuations or displacements will not count for this question, and the latest unaffected available data will be used instead in the case they impact such data.\n\nIf an evacuation or displacement is non-temporary (defined as lasting more than 1 year), this question will consider them.", "post_id": 39045, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761651543.274179, "end_time": 1784272700.314, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761651543.274179, "end_time": 1784272700.314, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10258016679997825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6841652356874048, 0.0, 0.6158491394765119, 0.8507105802698818, 0.2841245407359965, 3.4112977673304083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.235533053562396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Climate change is increasingly rendering parts of the United States less habitable. In recent years, multiple states have faced mounting climate-related stresses, including extreme heat, severe storms, flooding, drought, sea-level rise, and wildfires. These events can lead to repeated displacement, loss of life, and escalating economic disruption.\n\nSome insurers are pulling out of high-risk states such as Florida and California, citing mounting losses from natural disasters. This, in turn, has driven up insurance costs or left some homeowners unable to insure their property at all. In certain areas, property values have sharply declined or become functionally worthless, trapping homeowners in unsellable and unlivable homes.\n\nMajor cities and rural communities alike have seen repeated infrastructure damage from hurricanes, floods, wildfires, or extreme temperatures. In places like the Gulf Coast, Southwest, and Western states, power grid strain, water shortages, and air quality degradation are becoming chronic. In some regions, FEMA disaster declarations are now annual events.\n\nHistorically, the U.S. has experienced climate-driven migration before. During the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, prolonged drought and land degradation forced hundreds of thousands of people, particularly from Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and surrounding areas, to migrate westward, most notably to California. That migration reshaped the cultural and economic landscape of multiple states." }, { "id": 39043, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.575 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.575 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.575 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0575-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-11-will-the-hoffman-bayou-septic-to-sewer-project-reach-at-least-50-completion-by-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.606590Z", "published_at": "2025-08-06T07:15:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.630062Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.925866Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T21:13:18Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:39Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T07:15:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38384, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.575 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.606980Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T07:15:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T21:13:18Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:18.125717Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T08:15:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38959\n\nOriginal question: #11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official reports from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that at least 50% of the total planned work for the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project is completed by December 31, 2025. If less than 50% is complete by that date, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is working to replace septic systems across the city to protect local waterways and improve infrastructure. One of these efforts is the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer (STS) project, which will install new sewer lines and connect homes currently on septic tanks. Because the project is located near environmentally sensitive areas, it's considered especially important for long-term water quality. This forecast asks: will at least half of the Hoffman Bayou STS project be completed by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 57.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38959,\"question_id\":38299,\"last_cp\":0.575}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 21:13:18 is higher than 0.575, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39043, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754466175.365275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754466175.365275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38835557174284413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3665885696709727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.157033378115671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3468905597476875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.187886035178995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.474883331185775, 0.0, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5352069579807858, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.0, 2.105983738475951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029077130579036246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056405454004622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 15.624156434909894, "peer_score": 5.43023535485322, "coverage": 0.6110901674959395, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.6110901674959395, "spot_peer_score": 8.850359087847616, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 15.624156434909894, "peer_archived_score": 5.43023535485322, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.850359087847616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38959\n\nOriginal question: #11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official reports from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that at least 50% of the total planned work for the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project is completed by December 31, 2025. If less than 50% is complete by that date, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is working to replace septic systems across the city to protect local waterways and improve infrastructure. One of these efforts is the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer (STS) project, which will install new sewer lines and connect homes currently on septic tanks. Because the project is located near environmentally sensitive areas, it's considered especially important for long-term water quality. This forecast asks: will at least half of the Hoffman Bayou STS project be completed by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 57.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38959,\"question_id\":38299,\"last_cp\":0.575}}`" }, { "id": 39042, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.775 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.775 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.775 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0775-on-2025-08-16-for-the-question-9-will-the-bay-cliffs-septic-to-sewer-project-be-completed-by-the-end-of-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.233463Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T18:26:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.919808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.427414Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T00:21:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:49Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T18:26:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38383, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.775 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.233924Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T18:26:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T00:21:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:49Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:42.071893Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T19:26:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38957\n\nOriginal question: #9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer (STS) project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If significant work remains after that date, it resolves **No**. The city's official records will be used to determine the outcome.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: The Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer conversion is one of several neighborhood projects in Gulf Breeze's plan to eliminate all septic tanks within city limits by 2029. With funding from a $12.8 million federal NRDA grant awarded in 2024, the City is working to connect homes in the Bay Cliffs area to the main sewer system and retire outdated septic systems.\n\nThis forecast asks: will all work on the Bay Cliffs project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live nearby or have thoughts on the pace of these conversions, we welcome your perspective in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 77.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38957,\"question_id\":38297,\"last_cp\":0.775}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-16 00:21:21 is higher than 0.775, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754333349.765312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754333349.765312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5666666666666667, 0.4333333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.4333333333333333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.12643386057266, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.6161763022343317, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.6161763022343317, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 18.057224564182086, "baseline_archived_score": 11.12643386057266, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.057224564182086 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38957\n\nOriginal question: #9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer (STS) project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If significant work remains after that date, it resolves **No**. The city's official records will be used to determine the outcome.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: The Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer conversion is one of several neighborhood projects in Gulf Breeze's plan to eliminate all septic tanks within city limits by 2029. With funding from a $12.8 million federal NRDA grant awarded in 2024, the City is working to connect homes in the Bay Cliffs area to the main sewer system and retire outdated septic systems.\n\nThis forecast asks: will all work on the Bay Cliffs project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live nearby or have thoughts on the pace of these conversions, we welcome your perspective in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 77.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38957,\"question_id\":38297,\"last_cp\":0.775}}`" }, { "id": 39041, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.655 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.655 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.655 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0655-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-28-will-gulf-breeze-police-traffic-stops-stay-within-10-of-the-2024-baseline-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.859609Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T18:37:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.093590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:22.047391Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:23Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:37:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38382, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.655 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.860019Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T18:37:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:23Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:23.084398Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T19:37:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38976\n\nOriginal question: #28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if Gulf Breeze police conduct between 7,487 and 9,151 traffic stops during calendar year 2025. If stops fall below 7,487 or exceed 9,151, it resolves **No**. Official police department records will be used for confirmation.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: In 2024, Gulf Breeze police conducted 8,319 traffic stops. This serves as a baseline for enforcement activity in the city. A 10% range around that number — from 7,487 to 9,151 stops — reflects stable operational patterns and resource use. Large swings could suggest shifts in staffing, enforcement priorities, or local conditions. This forecast asks whether traffic stops during calendar year 2025 will remain within that 10% range.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 65.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38976,\"question_id\":38316,\"last_cp\":0.655}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 23:04:00 is higher than 0.655, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754420958.402206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754420958.402206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4723707961447664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3472799030677553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.619027583361539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3147642197656797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1398306292881584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1185615471705053, 0.5685529016609817, 1.1404812722466788, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7242978864904082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.503934240240303, "peer_score": -2.3853249791656586, "coverage": 0.8808837194575204, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8808837194575204, "spot_peer_score": -2.1221844639842247, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -13.503934240240303, "peer_archived_score": -2.3853249791656586, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.1221844639842247, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38976\n\nOriginal question: #28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if Gulf Breeze police conduct between 7,487 and 9,151 traffic stops during calendar year 2025. If stops fall below 7,487 or exceed 9,151, it resolves **No**. Official police department records will be used for confirmation.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: In 2024, Gulf Breeze police conducted 8,319 traffic stops. This serves as a baseline for enforcement activity in the city. A 10% range around that number — from 7,487 to 9,151 stops — reflects stable operational patterns and resource use. Large swings could suggest shifts in staffing, enforcement priorities, or local conditions. This forecast asks whether traffic stops during calendar year 2025 will remain within that 10% range.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 65.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38976,\"question_id\":38316,\"last_cp\":0.655}}`" }, { "id": 39040, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.44999999999999996 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.44999999999999996 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.44999999999999996 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-044999999999999996-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-16-will-more-than-230-new-natural-gas-connections-be-installed-in-gulf-breeze-during-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.213330Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T11:46:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.509966Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.540503Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T01:12:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:51Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T11:46:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38381, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.44999999999999996 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.213733Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T11:46:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T01:12:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:51Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:44.044148Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:46:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38964\n\nOriginal question: #16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official utility records from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that more than 230 new natural gas service installations were completed between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze runs its own natural gas utility, providing service to homes and businesses across the city. New service installations happen when residents choose natural gas for things like heating, water heaters, or stoves — or when new buildings get connected. These numbers give a sense of how the community is growing and how energy choices are shifting. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the city complete more than 230 new natural gas hookups?\n\nHave thoughts about energy use or growth in our area? Feel free to share them in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 45.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38964,\"question_id\":38304,\"last_cp\":0.44999999999999996}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 01:12:05 is higher than 0.44999999999999996, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38964\n\nOriginal question: #16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official utility records from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that more than 230 new natural gas service installations were completed between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze runs its own natural gas utility, providing service to homes and businesses across the city. New service installations happen when residents choose natural gas for things like heating, water heaters, or stoves — or when new buildings get connected. These numbers give a sense of how the community is growing and how energy choices are shifting. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the city complete more than 230 new natural gas hookups?\n\nHave thoughts about energy use or growth in our area? Feel free to share them in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 45.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38964,\"question_id\":38304,\"last_cp\":0.44999999999999996}}`" }, { "id": 39039, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.825 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.825 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.825 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0825-on-2025-08-13-for-the-question-20-will-the-upgraded-boat-dock-and-ramp-at-shoreline-park-be-completed-and-open-by-february-28-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:20.735990Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T05:33:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.542959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:21.038003Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:53Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38380, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.825 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:20.736405Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T05:33:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:49.641656Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:33:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38968\n\nOriginal question: #20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park South are completed and open to the public by February 28, 2026. If the facilities are not yet finished or not open for use by that date, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is making improvements to the boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park South, supported by funding from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) program. These upgrades will improve public access to fishing and boating, enhance safety, and provide better facilities for residents and visitors. This forecast asks: will the construction be finished and the new dock and ramp open to the public by February 28, 2026?\n\nCurious about how this project might impact your experience at the park? Let us know what you think in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 82.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38968,\"question_id\":38308,\"last_cp\":0.825}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 21:29:06 is higher than 0.825, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38968\n\nOriginal question: #20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park South are completed and open to the public by February 28, 2026. If the facilities are not yet finished or not open for use by that date, it will resolve **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is making improvements to the boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park South, supported by funding from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) program. These upgrades will improve public access to fishing and boating, enhance safety, and provide better facilities for residents and visitors. This forecast asks: will the construction be finished and the new dock and ramp open to the public by February 28, 2026?\n\nCurious about how this project might impact your experience at the park? Let us know what you think in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 82.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38968,\"question_id\":38308,\"last_cp\":0.825}}`" }, { "id": 39038, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.35 on 2025-08-16 for the question 'Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.35 on 2025-08-16 for the question 'Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.35 on 2025-08-16 for the question 'Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-035-on-2025-08-16-for-the-question-will-there-be-another-deadly-clash-between-thailand-and-cambodia-resulting-in-three-or-more-fatalities-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:20.111120Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T15:56:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.389510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:20.424209Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T03:24:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:42Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T15:56:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38379, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.35 on 2025-08-16 for the question 'Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:20.111530Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T15:56:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T03:24:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:42Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:27.351934Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T16:56:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39002\n\nOriginal question: Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there is a deadly clash between the military forces of Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more total fatalities between both sides, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nFine print: To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as the close-quarters combat that occurred at[ Galwan Valley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) between forces of India and China in June 2020. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “military forces” means\n\n* personnel of the Royal Thai Armed Forces\n* personnel of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces\n* law‑enforcement personnel of either state\n* or any paramilitary or militia group allied with any of the above - for example, Thahan Phran (Thai Rangers).\n\nBackground: After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 35.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39002,\"question_id\":38336,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-16 03:24:42 is higher than 0.35, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754410533.189436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754410533.189436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40551595249236155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2867089363362242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.8384319165032064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3663750393462566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.109588354511135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2954807104977055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8156316908845609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 23.357736931666945, "peer_score": -0.9330526904016023, "coverage": 0.8809656908114751, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8809656908114751, "spot_peer_score": -1.006719709367563, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 23.357736931666945, "peer_archived_score": -0.9330526904016023, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.006719709367563, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39002\n\nOriginal question: Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there is a deadly clash between the military forces of Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more total fatalities between both sides, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nFine print: To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as the close-quarters combat that occurred at[ Galwan Valley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) between forces of India and China in June 2020. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “military forces” means\n\n* personnel of the Royal Thai Armed Forces\n* personnel of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces\n* law‑enforcement personnel of either state\n* or any paramilitary or militia group allied with any of the above - for example, Thahan Phran (Thai Rangers).\n\nBackground: After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 35.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39002,\"question_id\":38336,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 39037, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.95 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.95 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.95 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-095-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-1-will-construction-start-in-2025-on-phase-ii-of-the-project-to-move-neighborhood-power-lines-underground", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:19.610147Z", "published_at": "2025-08-06T19:52:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.682327Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:19.790572Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T04:31:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:38Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T19:52:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38378, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.95 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:19.610541Z", "open_time": "2025-08-06T19:52:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T04:31:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:15.094201Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T20:52:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38948\n\nOriginal question: #1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if official documentation confirms that construction has started on Phase II of the neighborhood utility undergrounding project by 12:59 PM on December 31, 2025. Acceptable sources may include city project updates, council meeting minutes, or contractor notices. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: To improve storm safety and make the Gulf Breeze power system more reliable, the city is moving power lines underground. Phase I focused on Highway 98 and wrapped up in August 2025. Now, Phase II will bring this work to neighborhood streets including Fairpoint Drive, Shoreline Drive, Sunset Boulevard, Daniel Drive, and Daniel Circle. City plans say construction is expected to begin in winter 2025 and finish by the end of 2026. This forecast asks: will the actual work on Phase II get underway by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 95.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38948,\"question_id\":38288,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 04:31:10 is higher than 0.95, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754511119.878163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754511119.878163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4656792827829149 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44100797058576435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7001975404285468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.427382111597103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6719993717040575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4461934746928458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2418667296983857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18465803563641686, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5828933278937393, 0.0, 2.020729132882226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0037113881602495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38324646139057883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34578969670867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12847380042414192, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09121699062524133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.947554711680013, "peer_score": 27.251372694622823, "coverage": 0.8149187366829979, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8149187366829979, "spot_peer_score": 35.22696092856834, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 7.947554711680013, "peer_archived_score": 27.251372694622823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.22696092856834, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38948\n\nOriginal question: #1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if official documentation confirms that construction has started on Phase II of the neighborhood utility undergrounding project by 12:59 PM on December 31, 2025. Acceptable sources may include city project updates, council meeting minutes, or contractor notices. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: To improve storm safety and make the Gulf Breeze power system more reliable, the city is moving power lines underground. Phase I focused on Highway 98 and wrapped up in August 2025. Now, Phase II will bring this work to neighborhood streets including Fairpoint Drive, Shoreline Drive, Sunset Boulevard, Daniel Drive, and Daniel Circle. City plans say construction is expected to begin in winter 2025 and finish by the end of 2026. This forecast asks: will the actual work on Phase II get underway by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 95.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38948,\"question_id\":38288,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`" }, { "id": 39036, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.43 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.43 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.43 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-043-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-25-will-there-be-fewer-than-260-traffic-crashes-in-gulf-breeze-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.981242Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T11:40:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.275411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:19.297705Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T06:20:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:45Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T11:40:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38377, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.43 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.981648Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T11:40:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T06:20:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:44.982295Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T12:40:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38973\n\nOriginal question: #25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official records from the Gulf Breeze Police Department or traffic safety officials confirm that fewer than 260 total traffic crashes occurred during calendar year 2025. If the total is 260 or higher, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze tracks the number of traffic crashes each year as a key public safety measure. Fewer crashes usually mean safer roads, better traffic flow, and effective safety efforts — including things like road design, signage, enforcement, and driver awareness campaigns. This forecast asks: will the total number of crashes in 2025 stay under 260?\n\nHave thoughts on how to make our roads safer? Share your ideas in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 43.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38973,\"question_id\":38313,\"last_cp\":0.43}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 06:20:31 is higher than 0.43, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39036, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38973\n\nOriginal question: #25 - Will there be fewer than 260 traffic crashes in Gulf Breeze in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official records from the Gulf Breeze Police Department or traffic safety officials confirm that fewer than 260 total traffic crashes occurred during calendar year 2025. If the total is 260 or higher, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze tracks the number of traffic crashes each year as a key public safety measure. Fewer crashes usually mean safer roads, better traffic flow, and effective safety efforts — including things like road design, signage, enforcement, and driver awareness campaigns. This forecast asks: will the total number of crashes in 2025 stay under 260?\n\nHave thoughts on how to make our roads safer? Share your ideas in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 43.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38973,\"question_id\":38313,\"last_cp\":0.43}}`" }, { "id": 39035, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.65 on 2025-08-14 for the question '#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.65 on 2025-08-14 for the question '#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.65 on 2025-08-14 for the question '#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-065-on-2025-08-14-for-the-question-21-will-the-park-maintenance-building-expansion-be-completed-by-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.341069Z", "published_at": "2025-08-07T06:23:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.374335Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.668059Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T15:40:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:38Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T06:23:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38376, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.65 on 2025-08-14 for the question '#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.341470Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T06:23:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-14T15:40:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:13.375000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T07:23:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38969\n\nOriginal question: #21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the park maintenance building expansion is completed by December 31, 2025. If construction is still unfinished on that date, it will resolve **No**. Confirmation will come from official city project updates or records.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is expanding its park maintenance building to help keep up with the growing needs of its parks and recreation system. The upgraded facility will give the City more space for storing equipment, supporting staff, and carrying out park maintenance operations efficiently. This forecast asks: will the expansion be finished by December 31, 2025?\n\nHave thoughts on this or ideas for how the city can better support its parks? We'd love to hear your perspective in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 65.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38969,\"question_id\":38309,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-14 15:40:59 is higher than 0.65, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754549302.393356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754549302.393356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3647200819422193 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7009355736438561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1818235502429086, 0.0, 0.401327957992393, 0.0, 0.0, 1.369732657130292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.833496062107402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.0, 1.4624168694839992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.899205502401129, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.869741029391102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039230865401425924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.23271735155199, "peer_score": 6.095686703567935, "coverage": 0.6466613983445698, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.6466613983445698, "spot_peer_score": 9.340166635111366, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 24.23271735155199, "peer_archived_score": 6.095686703567935, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.340166635111366, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38969\n\nOriginal question: #21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the park maintenance building expansion is completed by December 31, 2025. If construction is still unfinished on that date, it will resolve **No**. Confirmation will come from official city project updates or records.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is expanding its park maintenance building to help keep up with the growing needs of its parks and recreation system. The upgraded facility will give the City more space for storing equipment, supporting staff, and carrying out park maintenance operations efficiently. This forecast asks: will the expansion be finished by December 31, 2025?\n\nHave thoughts on this or ideas for how the city can better support its parks? We'd love to hear your perspective in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 65.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38969,\"question_id\":38309,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`" }, { "id": 39034, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.8 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.8 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.8 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-08-on-2025-08-16-for-the-question-3-will-the-tiger-point-wastewater-treatment-facility-expansion-be-finished-before-february-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.684965Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T05:07:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.845786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:18.000656Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T03:11:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:53Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T05:07:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38375, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.8 on 2025-08-16 for the question '#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.685381Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T05:07:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T03:11:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:50.547918Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T06:07:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38950\n\nOriginal question: #3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze officially reports that the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion is substantially complete before February 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**. Official city updates or public project documents will be used for confirmation.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is expanding the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to help serve more homes and support future growth. The project will increase the facility's capacity from 2.0 to 3.5 million gallons per day—allowing more households to move off septic systems and connect to city sewer.\n\nConstruction began in August 2024, and as of mid-2025, the work was about 25% complete. The expansion is being funded by a mix of state and federal dollars, plus a new $14 monthly fee for utility customers.\n\nCity plans show the project is scheduled to be finished by January 2027. This forecast asks: will the construction be complete before February 1, 2027?\n\nHave thoughts or experiences related to this project? Let us know in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 80.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38950,\"question_id\":38290,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-16 03:11:23 is higher than 0.8, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38950\n\nOriginal question: #3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze officially reports that the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion is substantially complete before February 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**. Official city updates or public project documents will be used for confirmation.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is expanding the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to help serve more homes and support future growth. The project will increase the facility's capacity from 2.0 to 3.5 million gallons per day—allowing more households to move off septic systems and connect to city sewer.\n\nConstruction began in August 2024, and as of mid-2025, the work was about 25% complete. The expansion is being funded by a mix of state and federal dollars, plus a new $14 monthly fee for utility customers.\n\nCity plans show the project is scheduled to be finished by January 2027. This forecast asks: will the construction be complete before February 1, 2027?\n\nHave thoughts or experiences related to this project? Let us know in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 80.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38950,\"question_id\":38290,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`" }, { "id": 39033, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.755 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.755 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.755 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0755-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-23-will-the-new-recreation-software-system-be-up-and-running-before-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.196953Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T04:42:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.752161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.515277Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T02:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:42:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38374, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.755 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.197337Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:42:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T02:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:51.340119Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:42:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38971\n\nOriginal question: #23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the recreation management software migration is complete and operational by December 31, 2025. If it is not finished by that date, the question resolves **No**. Confirmation will come from official city updates or staff reporting.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is switching to a new online system for managing recreation programs and facility rentals. This updated software will make it easier for residents to sign up for activities, reserve spaces, and access parks and recreation services. It's also expected to make things smoother behind the scenes for staff. This forecast asks: will the new system be fully in place by December 31, 2025?\n\nHave ideas for how the City can make recreation signups easier or more accessible? Share your thoughts in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 75.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38971,\"question_id\":38311,\"last_cp\":0.755}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 02:58:05 is higher than 0.755, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38971\n\nOriginal question: #23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the recreation management software migration is complete and operational by December 31, 2025. If it is not finished by that date, the question resolves **No**. Confirmation will come from official city updates or staff reporting.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is switching to a new online system for managing recreation programs and facility rentals. This updated software will make it easier for residents to sign up for activities, reserve spaces, and access parks and recreation services. It's also expected to make things smoother behind the scenes for staff. This forecast asks: will the new system be fully in place by December 31, 2025?\n\nHave ideas for how the City can make recreation signups easier or more accessible? Share your thoughts in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 75.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38971,\"question_id\":38311,\"last_cp\":0.755}}`" }, { "id": 39032, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-12 for the question '#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-12 for the question '#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-12 for the question '#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0725-on-2025-08-12-for-the-question-7-will-the-montrose-and-florida-avenue-septic-to-sewer-project-finish-by-the-end-of-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:16.706361Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T21:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.404258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:17.014524Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T22:42:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:47Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T21:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38373, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-12 for the question '#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:16.706762Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T21:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-12T22:42:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:37.869211Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T22:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38955\n\nOriginal question: #7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If work continues into 2027, the question resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is replacing septic tanks with central sewer connections across the city, including in two key neighborhoods: the Florida Avenue–Dolphin Street–Hillcrest area and the Montrose Boulevard–Navy Cove–Berry Avenue area.\n\nWork on this combined project is planned to begin in 2025, with construction expected to wrap up by Fall 2026. This forecast asks: will it all be done by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live in one of these neighborhoods or have thoughts about the septic-to-sewer upgrades, we'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 72.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38955,\"question_id\":38295,\"last_cp\":0.725}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-12 22:42:03 is higher than 0.725, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754345442.025687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754345442.025687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.48 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.328957211667913, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.5883261980613073, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.5883261980613073, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "baseline_archived_score": 3.328957211667913, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38955\n\nOriginal question: #7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If work continues into 2027, the question resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is replacing septic tanks with central sewer connections across the city, including in two key neighborhoods: the Florida Avenue–Dolphin Street–Hillcrest area and the Montrose Boulevard–Navy Cove–Berry Avenue area.\n\nWork on this combined project is planned to begin in 2025, with construction expected to wrap up by Fall 2026. This forecast asks: will it all be done by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live in one of these neighborhoods or have thoughts about the septic-to-sewer upgrades, we'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 72.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38955,\"question_id\":38295,\"last_cp\":0.725}}`" }, { "id": 39031, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.55 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.55 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.55 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-055-on-2025-08-13-for-the-question-10-will-the-eufaula-septic-to-sewer-project-be-completed-by-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:16.223476Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T21:05:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.442739Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:16.537503Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:32:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T21:05:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38372, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.55 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:16.223986Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T21:05:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T21:32:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:20.703290Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T22:05:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38958\n\nOriginal question: #10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Eufaula septic-to-sewer (STS) conversion project is fully completed by December 31, 2025. If the project is still ongoing after that date, it resolves **No**. Official city reports will be used to verify completion.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is replacing septic systems across the city to protect water quality and modernize its wastewater infrastructure. In the Eufaula neighborhood, this means connecting homes that currently use septic tanks to the city's main sewer system.\n\nThe City plans to complete this work in Eufaula by the end of 2025. This forecast asks: will the project wrap up on time?\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 55.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38958,\"question_id\":38298,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 21:32:56 is higher than 0.55, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754429993.606976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754429993.606976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3808568265319127 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8449983955227598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.79649927766193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.211990369792187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 0.8757100619734373, 0.0, 0.0345941031908528, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 2.90055386875827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3550020120208713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09865693350412011, 0.0, 0.2539865168594601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16834342530407842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.59817305932923, "peer_score": -6.562730158303833, "coverage": 0.9709929327832327, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9709929327832327, "spot_peer_score": -14.239210827805444, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -38.59817305932923, "peer_archived_score": -6.562730158303833, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.239210827805444, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38958\n\nOriginal question: #10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Eufaula septic-to-sewer (STS) conversion project is fully completed by December 31, 2025. If the project is still ongoing after that date, it resolves **No**. Official city reports will be used to verify completion.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is replacing septic systems across the city to protect water quality and modernize its wastewater infrastructure. In the Eufaula neighborhood, this means connecting homes that currently use septic tanks to the city's main sewer system.\n\nThe City plans to complete this work in Eufaula by the end of 2025. This forecast asks: will the project wrap up on time?\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 55.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38958,\"question_id\":38298,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 39030, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.30000000000000004 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.30000000000000004 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.30000000000000004 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-030000000000000004-on-2025-08-13-for-the-question-14-will-the-city-resurface-at-least-3-miles-of-roads-as-part-of-its-15-year-paving-plan-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:15.593507Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T01:46:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.043270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:15.908872Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T07:50:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:45Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T01:46:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38371, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.30000000000000004 on 2025-08-13 for the question '#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:15.593915Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T01:46:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T07:50:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:34.097346Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T02:46:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38962\n\nOriginal question: #14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official City of Gulf Breeze records confirm that at least 3 miles of road were resurfaced during calendar year 2025 as part of the 15-year paving plan. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is following a 15-year plan to keep city roads in good shape. Each year, a set of streets is selected for repaving based on wear and tear, traffic levels, and maintenance needs. Hitting the annual targets — like resurfacing 3 miles of roads in 2025 — helps the City stay on track and ensures smoother, safer streets for everyone. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will Gulf Breeze have resurfaced at least 3 miles of road as part of that long-term plan? Have thoughts on which roads need the most attention — or how to prioritize this kind of work? Join the conversation in the comments.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 30.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38962,\"question_id\":38302,\"last_cp\":0.30000000000000004}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-13 07:50:16 is higher than 0.30000000000000004, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38962\n\nOriginal question: #14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official City of Gulf Breeze records confirm that at least 3 miles of road were resurfaced during calendar year 2025 as part of the 15-year paving plan. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: Gulf Breeze is following a 15-year plan to keep city roads in good shape. Each year, a set of streets is selected for repaving based on wear and tear, traffic levels, and maintenance needs. Hitting the annual targets — like resurfacing 3 miles of roads in 2025 — helps the City stay on track and ensures smoother, safer streets for everyone. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will Gulf Breeze have resurfaced at least 3 miles of road as part of that long-term plan? Have thoughts on which roads need the most attention — or how to prioritize this kind of work? Join the conversation in the comments.\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 30.00%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38962,\"question_id\":38302,\"last_cp\":0.30000000000000004}}`" }, { "id": 39029, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?'", "short_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?'", "url_title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?'", "slug": "will-the-cp-be-higher-than-0725-on-2025-08-15-for-the-question-12-will-the-city-secure-funding-in-2025-to-design-the-future-poinciana-septic-to-sewer-project", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:14.968161Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T07:30:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.372898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:15.276933Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T07:39:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T07:30:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38370, "title": "Will the CP be higher than 0.725 on 2025-08-15 for the question '#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?'", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:14.968606Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T07:30:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T07:39:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:48.132332Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:30:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38960\n\nOriginal question: #12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze secures funding specifically for design work on the Poinciana septic-to-sewer conversion project during calendar year 2025. If no such funding is secured by December 31, 2025, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: The Poinciana neighborhood is part of Gulf Breeze's long-term plan to move all homes off septic systems and onto central sewer service. The Poinciana conversion is targeted for completion around 2029. But before any digging starts, the City must secure funding for design work — the engineering plans that guide construction. This forecast asks: will that design funding be in place before the end of 2025? Have ideas or questions about future septic-to-sewer projects? Please share in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 72.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38960,\"question_id\":38300,\"last_cp\":0.725}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the original Metaculus question. If the community prediction on 2025-08-15 07:39:23 is higher than 0.725, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39029, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The community prediction on Metaculus is a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n\nQuestion URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38960\n\nOriginal question: #12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?\n\nResolution criteria: Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze secures funding specifically for design work on the Poinciana septic-to-sewer conversion project during calendar year 2025. If no such funding is secured by December 31, 2025, it resolves **No**.\n\nFine print: No fine print provided\n\nBackground: The Poinciana neighborhood is part of Gulf Breeze's long-term plan to move all homes off septic systems and onto central sewer service. The Poinciana conversion is targeted for completion around 2029. But before any digging starts, the City must secure funding for design work — the engineering plans that guide construction. This forecast asks: will that design funding be in place before the end of 2025? Have ideas or questions about future septic-to-sewer projects? Please share in the comments!\n\nThe current community prediction as of 2025-08-02 is 72.50%\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38960,\"question_id\":38300,\"last_cp\":0.725}}`" }, { "id": 39028, "title": "Will NRG's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "short_title": "Will NRG's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "url_title": "Will NRG's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "slug": "will-nrgs-market-close-price-on-2025-08-15-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-07", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:14.363572Z", "published_at": "2025-08-07T18:38:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.078707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:14.661152Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T20:53:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T18:38:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38369, "title": "Will NRG's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:14.363999Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T18:38:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T20:53:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:11.394210Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T19:38:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NRG Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NRG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:41) is 167.63. You can find more information about NRG Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRG\n\nNRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through Texas; East; West/Services/Other; Vivint Smart Home; and Corporate Activities segments. The company produces and sells electricity generated using coal, oil, solar, and battery storage; natural gas; and a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions. It offers retail electricity and energy management, line and surge protection products, HVAC installation, repair and maintenance, home protection products, repair and maintenance, and carbon offsets; retail services comprising demand response, commodity sales, energy efficiency, and energy management solutions; and system power, distributed generation, renewable and low-carbon products, carbon management and specialty services, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, and energy advisory services. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NRG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NRG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39028, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754593845.33918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754593845.33918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5504666108391103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6933517553728479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16080499313958357, 0.1751732796751412, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08042525021435519, 1.0, 0.7852188658668618, 0.0, 0.03598851855808508, 2.3790011731594576, 0.0, 1.2750855450025855, 0.0, 0.0, 2.117691459819725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6951662953184656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 15.263067267995986, "peer_score": 3.2441287904621507, "coverage": 0.9078347005446752, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9078347005446752, "spot_peer_score": 1.4179325252730512, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 15.263067267995986, "peer_archived_score": 3.2441287904621507, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4179325252730512, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NRG Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NRG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:41) is 167.63. You can find more information about NRG Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NRG\n\nNRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through Texas; East; West/Services/Other; Vivint Smart Home; and Corporate Activities segments. The company produces and sells electricity generated using coal, oil, solar, and battery storage; natural gas; and a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions. It offers retail electricity and energy management, line and surge protection products, HVAC installation, repair and maintenance, home protection products, repair and maintenance, and carbon offsets; retail services comprising demand response, commodity sales, energy efficiency, and energy management solutions; and system power, distributed generation, renewable and low-carbon products, carbon management and specialty services, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, and energy advisory services. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NRG\"}}`" } ] }
