Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=620
{ "count": 5894, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=600", "results": [ { "id": 37346, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "short_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "url_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "slug": "will-wh-admit-1-or-more-ap-reporter-or-photog-to-media-event-per-injunction", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.116537Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.524258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:42Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.498009Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.633440Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36708, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.117025Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T01:22:55.209579Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, at least one journalist or photographer employed by the Associated Press (AP) is admitted to an Oval Office media event hosted by the White House, as evidenced by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or confirmation from the Associated Press.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if, before July 1, 2025, no AP reporter or photographer has been admitted to any such event.", "fine_print": "A media event refers to any scheduled or impromptu event in the Oval Office to which members of the press are invited to report or take photographs.\n\n“Admitted” means physically granted access to the Oval Office for the purpose of reporting or photography, not merely allowed on White House grounds.\n\nThe individual must be employed by the Associated Press and formally affiliated with the organization.\n\nEvidence may include but is not limited to:\n\n* Press pool reports listing AP personnel\n* White House press office access logs\n* Statements from the AP or other credible sources", "post_id": 37346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44768966856957315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3507374953742156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5355087033617794, 0.0, 0.26027447991622393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2078317711451863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 1.5630005703856678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.7427863096759144, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.956608621956553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0109660933338958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.949921721551882, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12026351477195975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7542630621875321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events." }, { "id": 37345, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose significant federal price controls before Jan 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the Trump administration impose price controls?", "url_title": "Will the Trump administration impose price controls?", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-impose-price-controls", "author_id": 112630, "author_username": "murbard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T18:03:39.702670Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T14:40:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.756265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-06T14:44:34.666869Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36707, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose significant federal price controls before Jan 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T18:03:39.703099Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T14:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-12T14:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question concerns the possibility that the current U.S. administration will implement federal price controls during its 2025–2029 term. Large-scale price controls, such as ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas, have been rare in U.S. history, with [notable instances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_controls#United_States) during World War II, the Korean War, and the 1971 Nixon wage-and-price freeze.\n\nAs of May 2025, the administration has already announced a broad package of tariffs, including blanket import duties and country-specific surcharges. Although some components have been partially moderated, the overall tariff load remains historically high. At the same time, GDP data indicates the U.S. economy is contracting, raising concerns about stagflation-like dynamics. In past episodes, particularly 1971, this combination of inflationary pressure and slowing growth led to direct federal intervention in price-setting.\n\nThis question asks whether similar conditions could result in the reintroduction of federal price controls at a significant scale during this term.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 20, 2029, the federal government imposes and maintains for at least 30 consecutive days a new price control policy that satisfies all of the following conditions:\n\n1. It is a binding constraint on nominal prices charged to private-sector buyers. This includes price ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas. It excludes purely advisory price targets, disclosure requirements, or controls that apply only to public procurement (e.g., VA, DOD).\n2. It applies to at least 40 states and explicitly preempts state-level pricing authority in affected sectors.\n3. Its economic scope is substantial, affecting goods or services comprising at least \\$100 billion in annual nominal private-sector transactions.\n4. It is newly implemented during the term, i.e., it's not a continuation, renewal, or incremental modification of a preexisting regulation or statutory framework in place prior to January 20, 2025.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** otherwise, including if only limited or geographically narrow controls are introduced, or if all qualifying policies are rescinded before reaching 30 days in effect.", "fine_print": "* \"Private-sector buyers\" includes business‑to‑consumer and business‑to‑business transactions for goods and services, but excludes wages/salaries.\n* The 30 days will count from the date of the implementation.\n* Any action with force of federal law, whether by statute, executive order, or agency rule, would qualify for this question.\n* The price control actually affecting prices is immaterial for this question. For example, a price ceiling that is higher than market prices and remains so for the whole 30 days would still resolve this question.", "post_id": 37345, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756821945.367587, "end_time": 1758507370.298542, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756821945.367587, "end_time": 1758507370.298542, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6314816306870634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4979166515260491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31170931775186683, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1095297428623234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4931042856206062, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4300095063445426, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question concerns the possibility that the current U.S. administration will implement federal price controls during its 2025–2029 term. Large-scale price controls, such as ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas, have been rare in U.S. history, with [notable instances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_controls#United_States) during World War II, the Korean War, and the 1971 Nixon wage-and-price freeze.\n\nAs of May 2025, the administration has already announced a broad package of tariffs, including blanket import duties and country-specific surcharges. Although some components have been partially moderated, the overall tariff load remains historically high. At the same time, GDP data indicates the U.S. economy is contracting, raising concerns about stagflation-like dynamics. In past episodes, particularly 1971, this combination of inflationary pressure and slowing growth led to direct federal intervention in price-setting.\n\nThis question asks whether similar conditions could result in the reintroduction of federal price controls at a significant scale during this term." }, { "id": 37328, "title": "Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?", "short_title": "India-Pakistan conflict with 100 deaths in May/June 2025?", "url_title": "India-Pakistan conflict with 100 deaths in May/June 2025?", "slug": "india-pakistan-conflict-with-100-deaths-in-mayjune-2025", "author_id": 121058, "author_username": "Sourian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-29T19:37:58.377687Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T14:55:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.997920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-05T14:57:39.452327Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T10:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 256, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36700, "title": "Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-29T19:37:58.378121Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-07T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T10:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-05T11:26:14.852071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On [22 April 2025, near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack), in Indian administered Kashmir, militants killed 26 individuals in an attack. Following the attack, India, and Pakistan engaged in [hostile diplomatic measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff) aimed at each other. Starting on the night of 24-25 April 2025, [skirmishes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), and exchanges of gunfire reportedly started along the Line of Control.\n\nThe event is a part of the broader [Kashmir conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict), which started after the partition of India in 1947. Both of the countries claim sovereignty over each other's de facto territory in the area. Tensions restarted after India [revoked the autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_status_of_Jammu_and_Kashmir) of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if military conflict between India and Pakistan results in at least 100 deaths after May 1 and before July 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIndependent estimates of the number of deaths will be prioritised in resolving this question. These may include cases where an independent organisation has reviewed and explicitly endorsed one side's death figures. If no such estimates are available or if they are judged by Metaculus to be in error, this question will resolve according to each side's count of their own dead.", "fine_print": "* The deaths have to occur in Indian and/or Pakistani territory, as demarcated by their internationally recognised state borders and the [Line of Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Control). Deaths in disputed territories between India and Pakistan will be included. \n* The deaths have to be caused by the overtly flagged military forces of India, Pakistan, and/or their explicit allies in the conflict.\n* The conflict need not involve Indian forces within the borders of Pakistan or vice-versa, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* The deaths must be caused by [kinetic attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* In case of conflicting information between sources, Metaculus might wait until the end of the tournament to resolve this question or might make a determination as to which sources should contribute to its resolution.", "post_id": 37328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749225316.910172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749225316.910172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.036678076806865814 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.405206331856604, 7.724836833268318, 6.194317454955284, 3.6444523038303216, 0.3151460522758734, 2.60268627550793, 0.07950327574133695, 0.24357225659808646, 0.7461223036700515, 0.07406796164998118, 0.18778368434301967, 0.1989336752981295, 0.024204380785985396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1125603881207744, 0.011277379637214612, 0.0012374118804973455, 0.0, 0.01760625004084847, 0.7416744798496708, 0.0, 0.012421251705140371, 0.054817694800041984, 0.0, 0.20426213721824998, 0.0005973241263059863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004815890959623739, 0.026379851760782072, 0.2832601082154617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021465102718242336, 0.0, 0.005262321921676929, 0.0, 0.009852990274056827, 0.005027325948520069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0062466472386943465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028711431476141674, 0.00017809462167642137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001959431296248472, 0.002121816447274001, 0.0026953505169471717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08025904568829471, 0.0010375337589913043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017457317784687022, 0.00038883706591765925, 4.10423491570238e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019128492783116098, 0.00030783211959282465, 0.0036811209475650806, 0.0, 0.0014705862423306441, 0.0027623604046003417, 0.0, 0.024568168679523515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011142701952950104, 5.9514285728829993e-05, 0.0, 2.2220776112164604e-05, 0.0, 0.0019938826204229437, 0.0, 0.0002157470415750376, 0.0002492489053821384, 0.0, 0.0031876817101863485, 3.180219310229071e-05, 0.000721050924730193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002120512482914684, 0.0004925508800658968, 0.0, 0.0008187061156230388, 0.012021730514350753 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.825807688723742, "peer_score": 69.0756378415993, "coverage": 0.9999941933766604, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999941933766604, "spot_peer_score": 34.75764847262976, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 20.825807688723742, "peer_archived_score": 69.0756378415993, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.75764847262976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On [22 April 2025, near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack), in Indian administered Kashmir, militants killed 26 individuals in an attack. Following the attack, India, and Pakistan engaged in [hostile diplomatic measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff) aimed at each other. Starting on the night of 24-25 April 2025, [skirmishes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), and exchanges of gunfire reportedly started along the Line of Control.\n\nThe event is a part of the broader [Kashmir conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict), which started after the partition of India in 1947. Both of the countries claim sovereignty over each other's de facto territory in the area. Tensions restarted after India [revoked the autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_status_of_Jammu_and_Kashmir) of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019." }, { "id": 37307, "title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "short_title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "url_title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "slug": "will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-27T13:49:30.155111Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:49:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:02:39.112795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:03Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.498009Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36681, "title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "created_at": "2025-04-27T13:49:30.155571Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n\nIn January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n\nIn a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n\nThe first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n\n> The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n\nA few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n\nHowever, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n\n> For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n\n> However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n\n> On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n\nThen on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n\nNo US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n\nSee also:\n\n* Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n* American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n* Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).", "fine_print": "This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n\nStatements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n\nIf necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nAs stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n\nIf Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 37307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757635348.503868, "end_time": 1757877539.599, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757635348.503868, "end_time": 1757877539.599, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.34613224888599925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05329386837171613, 0.0, 0.1183927576092884, 0.0, 0.6153364747178279, 0.2815775311729958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09400260154886919, 0.0, 1.7468282759317648, 0.12103965401147956, 0.1573883180804489, 0.22238985813782158, 0.0, 1.8717111379873446, 0.0, 0.46479219695882734, 0.2578984820658202, 0.0, 2.3479737703769072, 0.14893553430646006, 0.6259995631503564, 0.03965388446818618, 0.0, 1.2020113920837188, 0.014987958272182392, 0.058049779671705354, 1.4328024680540805, 0.011938683744747294, 2.1111540723016597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0147290566223206, 0.0, 0.7747029515214036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05208054665216881, 0.01390561541236602, 0.0022141635174052336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8174761310174543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003095827948788816, 0.001992637073746351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002998351620838225, 0.8737356975476044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46775035749418503, 0.16558368945824647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032536350391486085, 0.2813374865276229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2971992767157841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7298444525779221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043228111401378617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5159417803340954, 0.8824102851770661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03142334423740272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36450420982047815 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 523, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n\nIn January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n\nIn a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n\nThe first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n\n> The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n\nA few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n\nHowever, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n\n> For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n\n> However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n\n> On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n\nThen on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n\nNo US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n\nSee also:\n\n* Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n* American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n* Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)" }, { "id": 37304, "title": "Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?", "short_title": "HHS show link between vaccines and autism?", "url_title": "HHS show link between vaccines and autism?", "slug": "hhs-show-link-between-vaccines-and-autism", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T21:23:44.793332Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:09:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:47:27.538409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T19:11:21.564488Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-03T19:09:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36678, "title": "Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T21:23:44.793767Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T19:09:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T19:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T19:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Extensive studies, including large-scale epidemiological research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and independent researchers worldwide, have found no credible evidence linking vaccination to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Major medical organizations — including the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the World Health Organization (WHO) — agree that vaccines are safe and not associated with autism.\n\nSecretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine critic, has promoted claims suggesting a connection between vaccines and autism despite the scientific consensus. In April 2025, Kennedy referenced an upcoming study that he claims will identify environmental causes for Autism.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a study conducted, commissioned, or published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or any of its component agencies (including but not limited to the CDC, NIH, FDA, and HRSA) publicly claims evidence of a link between vaccination and autism.\n\nA study will be considered to have \"claimed evidence\" if the abstract, results, discussion, or conclusion sections state that their findings suggest an association, correlation, link, or causal relationship between any vaccine and autism spectrum disorders.", "fine_print": "* Both preprints and peer-reviewed publications are eligible.\n* Press releases, statements, or summaries alone are insufficient unless accompanied by a publicly available full study that matches the claim.\n* Studies concluding that no link exists or presenting inconclusive findings will not cause this question to resolve Yes.\n* \"Association\" includes statistically significant associations as reported by the study's authors.", "post_id": 37304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757551636.851682, "end_time": 1758028805.103905, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757551636.851682, "end_time": 1758028805.103905, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.20596721216843225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43568667999209787, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7015889406685636, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 1.0957028005165046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.5496586247768072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Extensive studies, including large-scale epidemiological research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and independent researchers worldwide, have found no credible evidence linking vaccination to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Major medical organizations — including the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the World Health Organization (WHO) — agree that vaccines are safe and not associated with autism.\n\nSecretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine critic, has promoted claims suggesting a connection between vaccines and autism despite the scientific consensus. In April 2025, Kennedy referenced an upcoming study that he claims will identify environmental causes for Autism." }, { "id": 37303, "title": "Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump closes NYSE or NASDAQ before January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Trump closes NYSE or NASDAQ before January 20, 2029?", "slug": "trump-closes-nyse-or-nasdaq-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T16:17:21.181634Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T10:24:12.779854Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:49:13Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T17:36:35.393468Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T11:53:10.695487Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36677, "title": "Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T16:17:21.182079Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) and the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) are the two largest stock exchanges in the world by market capitalization, ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.\n\nBoth stock exchanges run year round, closing only on weekends and on recognized holidays such as Christmas Day and New Years day; or during National Days of Mourning, like when the late President Jimmy Carter passed away; or for extended periods of time in more exceptional circumstances such as:\n\n* World Wars 1 and 2.\n* Great Depression Banking Crisis.\n* September 11 Attacks.\n\nThe historical precedent for the above closures were to stabilize the markets by preventing large sell-offs and to stem panic. They have typically been executed in coordination with the US government, rather than a Presidential order for example.\n\nPresident Donald Trump, during both his first term and ongoing second term, has been a frequent commenter on the stock market and its governing institutions. Trump has [publicly called](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/powell-attempts-balancing-act-as-trump-tests-fed-s-autonomy) for current Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, something many observe as an infringement of the Federal Reserve's autonomy. Indeed, Trump has also had internal discussions on having [Powell removed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/trump-jerome-powell/index.html), which would be an unprecedented decision with no clear legal basis and something his closest advisors strongly advised against<sup>1</sup>. Trump has also [attacked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1834712936952349040) the SEC and the Nasdaq after halting trading of [Trump Media & Technology Group Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_%26_Technology_Group) (\\$DJT), a company majority-owned by Trump, due to volatility - a very normal procedure for any stock:\n\n> Why is NASDAQ halting the sale of DJT? What right do they have to do this? \\[...] Are they taking orders from the SEC, which, for political reasons, delayed us for an inordinate amount of time, therefore hurting the stock very badly? I am going to hold NASDAQ, and maybe the SEC, liable for doing what they are doing.\n\nMoreover, Trump has often [linked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1752035267274518696) stock market performance to government performance and success, but, in light of his tariff campaign, the stock market has performed poorly. Some social media personalities [have suggested](https://x.com/quantian1/status/1912906354332774483) that Trump could take extreme actions, such as closing markets, in the event market performance remains poor.\n\n***\n\n<small>1. [Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31045/powell-ceases-to-hold-fed-chair-before-2026/)</small>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the US government orders the [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) or the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) stock markets to be closed for one or more entire regularly-scheduled trading days.", "fine_print": "Note that stock market closures ordered for the following reasons will **not** be sufficient to resolve the question to **Yes**:\n\n* National Days of Mourning.\n* National Holidays.\n* Natural Disasters (e.g., hurricanes, volcanic eruptions etc.)\n\nClosures due to other reasons would be sufficient.\n\nRequests or pressure to close made by the government but without a formal order (for example, see the [1914 closure of the NYSE](https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1346\\&context=journal-of-financial-crises)) do **not** count.\n\nWhether an order is followed and subsequent challenges to the legality of such an order are immaterial, the question immediately will resolve when a qualifying order is made.", "post_id": 37303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757672641.933463, "end_time": 1757873542.100867, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757672641.933463, "end_time": 1757873542.100867, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.17354716538049625 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5724903816727145, 0.34971483532080716, 1.5416885598936436, 0.519389256172537, 1.8828004196801653, 0.708400034867709, 0.6019162782285685, 0.1986211967335494, 2.1566942588833986, 0.42836441947914583, 3.8629656638385153, 0.48032679549893653, 0.0023344947652597413, 0.154724358893372, 0.20908185741367785, 0.013064076779657359, 0.0002701310473046779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008676316626368738, 0.2988031963640385, 0.2777087181393707, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4257278235232338, 0.6773530385953063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797014374684501, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0890584775772888, 0.0, 0.10953990156018446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1152903243998369, 0.0, 0.09880471209380728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.881525652236605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0937993177476182, 0.00023575687664802647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0048682966720974665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18963945740922222, 0.5988539097527963, 0.006538434515889284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007751692078063485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005247220292969846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43923002972150094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35752081730613616 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) and the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) are the two largest stock exchanges in the world by market capitalization, ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.\n\nBoth stock exchanges run year round, closing only on weekends and on recognized holidays such as Christmas Day and New Years day; or during National Days of Mourning, like when the late President Jimmy Carter passed away; or for extended periods of time in more exceptional circumstances such as:\n\n* World Wars 1 and 2.\n* Great Depression Banking Crisis.\n* September 11 Attacks.\n\nThe historical precedent for the above closures were to stabilize the markets by preventing large sell-offs and to stem panic. They have typically been executed in coordination with the US government, rather than a Presidential order for example.\n\nPresident Donald Trump, during both his first term and ongoing second term, has been a frequent commenter on the stock market and its governing institutions. Trump has [publicly called](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/powell-attempts-balancing-act-as-trump-tests-fed-s-autonomy) for current Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, something many observe as an infringement of the Federal Reserve's autonomy. Indeed, Trump has also had internal discussions on having [Powell removed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/trump-jerome-powell/index.html), which would be an unprecedented decision with no clear legal basis and something his closest advisors strongly advised against<sup>1</sup>. Trump has also [attacked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1834712936952349040) the SEC and the Nasdaq after halting trading of [Trump Media & Technology Group Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_%26_Technology_Group) (\\$DJT), a company majority-owned by Trump, due to volatility - a very normal procedure for any stock:\n\n> Why is NASDAQ halting the sale of DJT? What right do they have to do this? \\[...] Are they taking orders from the SEC, which, for political reasons, delayed us for an inordinate amount of time, therefore hurting the stock very badly? I am going to hold NASDAQ, and maybe the SEC, liable for doing what they are doing.\n\nMoreover, Trump has often [linked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1752035267274518696) stock market performance to government performance and success, but, in light of his tariff campaign, the stock market has performed poorly. Some social media personalities [have suggested](https://x.com/quantian1/status/1912906354332774483) that Trump could take extreme actions, such as closing markets, in the event market performance remains poor.\n\n***\n\n<small>1. [Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31045/powell-ceases-to-hold-fed-chair-before-2026/)</small>" }, { "id": 37301, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Muqtada al-Sadr's Alliance Towards Reforms party announce that it will participate in the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election?", "short_title": "By July 1, '25, will al-Sadr's party announce it will be in 2025 Iraqi election?", "url_title": "By July 1, '25, will al-Sadr's party announce it will be in 2025 Iraqi election?", "slug": "by-july-1-25-will-al-sadrs-party-announce-it-will-be-in-2025-iraqi-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T06:03:08.104327Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.441993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36676, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Muqtada al-Sadr's Alliance Towards Reforms party announce that it will participate in the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T06:03:08.104327Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T15:59:47.346546Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "basnews: [Sadr Rejects Iraqi President’s Plea, Reaffirms Election Boycott](https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/881132)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the Alliance Towards Reforms announces that it will field candidates in Iraq's [2025 parliamentary elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iraqi_parliamentary_election).", "fine_print": "\"Alliance Towards Reforms\" refers to the \"**تحالف سائرون للإصلا**ح\" or \"سائرون\" coalition, party or movement headed by Muqtada al-Sadr, as decribed at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Towards_Reforms). Name changes will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 37301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746239534.355477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746239534.355477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.14114660414167815 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4467943994497405, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.424985825223297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.9314613980783, "peer_score": -0.11869396878525887, "coverage": 0.8755980177839596, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8755980177839596, "spot_peer_score": 0.046536030764625876, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 71.9314613980783, "peer_archived_score": -0.11869396878525887, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.046536030764625876, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "basnews: [Sadr Rejects Iraqi President’s Plea, Reaffirms Election Boycott](https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/881132)" }, { "id": 37300, "title": "Will Ethiopia receive a \"Level 4 – Do Not Travel\" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ethiopia-receive-a-level-4-do-not-travel-travel-advisory-from-the-us-state-department-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T06:03:08.099715Z", "published_at": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.903693Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36675, "title": "Will Ethiopia receive a \"Level 4 – Do Not Travel\" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T06:03:08.099715Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T19:34:38.765497Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Travel and Tour World: [Is Ethiopia Safe for Travel? Exploring Addis Ababa’s Rich Culture Amid New Travel Warnings in 2025 : What more you need to know](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/is-ethiopia-safe-for-travel-exploring-addis-ababas-rich-culture-amid-new-travel-warnings-in-2025-what-more-you-need-to-know/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Ethiopia has received a Level 4 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ethiopia.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025,", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746215526.784106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746215526.784106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.965, 0.035 ], "means": [ 0.029183394536712728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.351467487353343, 0.49027544292935926, 1.7706999744268703, 1.2780408306060318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.81796324862601, "peer_score": -0.005292151896213466, "coverage": 0.9959665096494885, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9959665096494885, "spot_peer_score": -0.7026107367549776, "spot_baseline_score": 94.86008474933556, "baseline_archived_score": 95.81796324862601, "peer_archived_score": -0.005292151896213466, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7026107367549776, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.86008474933556 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Travel and Tour World: [Is Ethiopia Safe for Travel? 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