Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=640
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It's ticker is FDS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:40) is 391.33. You can find more information about FactSet Research Systems Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDS\n\nFactSet Research Systems Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a financial digital platform and enterprise solutions provider for the investment community worldwide. The company provides workstations, portfolio analytics, and enterprise data solutions, as well as managed services for supporting data, performance, risk, and reporting workflows. It offers subscription-based financial data and market intelligence on securities, companies, industries, and people that enable clients to research investment ideas, as well as analyze, monitor, and manage their portfolios. The company provides its services through its configurable desktop and mobile platform, data feeds, cloud-based digital solutions, and application programming interfaces. It serves investment professionals, including institutional asset managers, bankers, wealth managers, asset owners, partners, hedge funds, corporate users, and private equity and venture capital professionals. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FDS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-05, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39027, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754354324.401758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754354324.401758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.52 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -3.227044097071716, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.547943956123458, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.547943956123458, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -3.227044097071716, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FactSet Research Systems Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FDS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:40) is 391.33. You can find more information about FactSet Research Systems Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDS\n\nFactSet Research Systems Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a financial digital platform and enterprise solutions provider for the investment community worldwide. The company provides workstations, portfolio analytics, and enterprise data solutions, as well as managed services for supporting data, performance, risk, and reporting workflows. It offers subscription-based financial data and market intelligence on securities, companies, industries, and people that enable clients to research investment ideas, as well as analyze, monitor, and manage their portfolios. The company provides its services through its configurable desktop and mobile platform, data feeds, cloud-based digital solutions, and application programming interfaces. It serves investment professionals, including institutional asset managers, bankers, wealth managers, asset owners, partners, hedge funds, corporate users, and private equity and venture capital professionals. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39026, "title": "Will MNST's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "short_title": "Will MNST's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "url_title": "Will MNST's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "slug": "will-mnsts-market-close-price-on-2025-08-15-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-07", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:13.223175Z", "published_at": "2025-08-07T21:55:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.206915Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:13.543068Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T19:22:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T21:55:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38367, "title": "Will MNST's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-07?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:13.223574Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T21:55:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T19:22:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:37Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:09.748227Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-07T22:55:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Monster Beverage Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MNST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:39) is 59.02. You can find more information about Monster Beverage Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNST\n\nMonster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in development, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy drink beverages and concentrates in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, Alcohol Brands, and Other. It offers carbonated non-carbonated energy drinks, ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks and single-serve still waters, and sodas that are considered natural, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages. In addition, the company provides its products under the Monster Energy, Monster Energy Ultra, Rehab Monster, Monster Energy Nitro, Java Monster, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, Monster Tour Water, Reign Total Body Fuel, Reign Inferno Thermogenic Fuel, Reign Storm, Bang Energy, NOS, Full Throttle, Burn, Mother, Nalu, Ultra Energy, Play and Power Play, Relentless, BPM, BU, Samurai, Live+, Predator, and Fury brands. Further, it offers craft beers, flavored malt beverages,and hard seltzers under the Jai Alai IPA, Florida Man IPA, Dale's Pale Ale, Wild Basin Hard Seltzers, Dallas Blonde, Deep Ellum IPA, Perrin Brewing Company Black Ale, Hop Rising Double IPA, Wasatch Apricot Hefeweizen, The Beast, and Nasty Beast Hard Tea brands. The company engages in the concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling, and canning operations. It sells its products to full-service beverage bottlers/distributors, retail grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience chains, food service customers, value stores, e-commerce retailers, and the military. The company was formerly known as Hansen Natural Corporation and changed its name to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. Monster Beverage Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Corona, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MNST\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MNST. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754604609.7687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754604609.7687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.52391894421383 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8794775301932467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.9908378686697789, 0.3559187878370533, 0.1751732796751412, 4.253047819426967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3231037885279902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05556768774536856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.935295916989617, "peer_score": 4.087861923765583, "coverage": 0.8706171935796738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8706171935796738, "spot_peer_score": 4.787432019315204, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 11.935295916989617, "peer_archived_score": 4.087861923765583, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.787432019315204, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Monster Beverage Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MNST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:39) is 59.02. You can find more information about Monster Beverage Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNST\n\nMonster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in development, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy drink beverages and concentrates in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, Alcohol Brands, and Other. It offers carbonated non-carbonated energy drinks, ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks and single-serve still waters, and sodas that are considered natural, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages. In addition, the company provides its products under the Monster Energy, Monster Energy Ultra, Rehab Monster, Monster Energy Nitro, Java Monster, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, Monster Tour Water, Reign Total Body Fuel, Reign Inferno Thermogenic Fuel, Reign Storm, Bang Energy, NOS, Full Throttle, Burn, Mother, Nalu, Ultra Energy, Play and Power Play, Relentless, BPM, BU, Samurai, Live+, Predator, and Fury brands. Further, it offers craft beers, flavored malt beverages,and hard seltzers under the Jai Alai IPA, Florida Man IPA, Dale's Pale Ale, Wild Basin Hard Seltzers, Dallas Blonde, Deep Ellum IPA, Perrin Brewing Company Black Ale, Hop Rising Double IPA, Wasatch Apricot Hefeweizen, The Beast, and Nasty Beast Hard Tea brands. The company engages in the concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling, and canning operations. It sells its products to full-service beverage bottlers/distributors, retail grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience chains, food service customers, value stores, e-commerce retailers, and the military. The company was formerly known as Hansen Natural Corporation and changed its name to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. 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It's ticker is REGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:38) is 558.87. You can find more information about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN\n\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for treating various diseases worldwide. The company's products include EYLEA injection to treat wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema; myopic choroidal neovascularization; diabetic retinopathy; neovascular glaucoma; and retinopathy of prematurity. It also provides Dupixent injection to treat atopic dermatitis and asthma in adults and pediatrics; Libtayo injection to treat metastatic or locally advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma; Praluent injection for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) or clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in adults; REGEN-COV for covid-19; and Kevzara solution for treating rheumatoid arthritis in adults. In addition, the company offers Inmazeb injection for infection caused by Zaire ebolavirus; ARCALYST injection for cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes, including familial cold auto-inflammatory syndrome and muckle-wells syndrome; and ZALTRAP injection for intravenous infusion to treat metastatic colorectal cancer; Evkeeza for treatment of HoFH; Ordspono for Follicular lymphoma and Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; and Veopoz for CD55-deficient protein-losing enteropathy. 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It's ticker is REGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:38) is 558.87. You can find more information about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/REGN\n\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for treating various diseases worldwide. The company's products include EYLEA injection to treat wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema; myopic choroidal neovascularization; diabetic retinopathy; neovascular glaucoma; and retinopathy of prematurity. It also provides Dupixent injection to treat atopic dermatitis and asthma in adults and pediatrics; Libtayo injection to treat metastatic or locally advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma; Praluent injection for heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) or clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in adults; REGEN-COV for covid-19; and Kevzara solution for treating rheumatoid arthritis in adults. In addition, the company offers Inmazeb injection for infection caused by Zaire ebolavirus; ARCALYST injection for cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes, including familial cold auto-inflammatory syndrome and muckle-wells syndrome; and ZALTRAP injection for intravenous infusion to treat metastatic colorectal cancer; Evkeeza for treatment of HoFH; Ordspono for Follicular lymphoma and Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; and Veopoz for CD55-deficient protein-losing enteropathy. 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It's ticker is ENPH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:36) is 31.43. You can find more information about Enphase Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH\n\nEnphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter that converts energy at the individual solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. It also provides microinverter units and related accessories; IQ Battery and related accessories; IQ Gateway and IQ Energy Router; cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service; and electric vehicle charging solutions, as well as design, proposal, permitting, and lead generation services. 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It's ticker is ENPH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:36) is 31.43. You can find more information about Enphase Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH\n\nEnphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter that converts energy at the individual solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. It also provides microinverter units and related accessories; IQ Battery and related accessories; IQ Gateway and IQ Energy Router; cloud-based Enlighten monitoring service; and electric vehicle charging solutions, as well as design, proposal, permitting, and lead generation services. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, and homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ENPH\"}}`" }, { "id": 39023, "title": "Will GNRC's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "short_title": "Will GNRC's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "url_title": "Will GNRC's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "slug": "will-gnrcs-market-close-price-on-2025-08-13-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-05", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:11.436345Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T07:17:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.943838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:11.753694Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T22:58:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:44Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T07:17:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38364, "title": "Will GNRC's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:11.436797Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T07:17:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T22:58:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:44Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:30.567692Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T08:17:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Generac Holdings Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GNRC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:35) is 193.63. You can find more information about Generac Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNRC\n\nGenerac Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes energy technology products and solution worldwide. The company offers residential automatic standby generators, automatic transfer switch, air-cooled engine residential standby generators, and liquid-cooled engine generators; Mobile Link, a remote monitoring system for home standby generators; residential battery storage systems; smart home solutions, such as smart thermostats and a suite of home monitoring products. It also provides smart home energy management devices and sensors for heating and cooling system; smart doorbell cameras; and portable and inverter generators; multiple portable battery solutions; manual transfer switches; outdoor power equipment, including trimmers, field and brush mowers, log splitters, stump grinders, chipper shredders, lawn and leaf vacuums, and pressure washers and water pumps; and battery-powered turf care products. In addition, the company offers commercial and industrial products comprising cleaner-burning natural gas fueled generators; light-commercial standby generators and related transfer switches; stationary generators; single-engine industrial generators; industrial standby generators; industrial transfer switches; light towers, mobile generators, commercial mobile pumps, heaters, dust-suppression equipment, and mobile energy storage systems; battery energy storage system and related inverter products; and aftermarket service parts and product accessories. Further, it provides Concerto energy-balancing software platform for controlling and dispatching distributed energy resources. The company distributes its products through independent residential dealers, industrial distributors and dealers, national and regional retailers, e-commerce partners, electrical/HVAC/solar wholesalers, solar installers, catalogs, equipment rental companies, and other equipment distributors; and directly to end users. The company was founded in 1959 and is based in Waukesha, Wisconsin.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GNRC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GNRC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-05, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is GNRC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:35) is 193.63. You can find more information about Generac Holdings Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNRC\n\nGenerac Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes energy technology products and solution worldwide. The company offers residential automatic standby generators, automatic transfer switch, air-cooled engine residential standby generators, and liquid-cooled engine generators; Mobile Link, a remote monitoring system for home standby generators; residential battery storage systems; smart home solutions, such as smart thermostats and a suite of home monitoring products. It also provides smart home energy management devices and sensors for heating and cooling system; smart doorbell cameras; and portable and inverter generators; multiple portable battery solutions; manual transfer switches; outdoor power equipment, including trimmers, field and brush mowers, log splitters, stump grinders, chipper shredders, lawn and leaf vacuums, and pressure washers and water pumps; and battery-powered turf care products. In addition, the company offers commercial and industrial products comprising cleaner-burning natural gas fueled generators; light-commercial standby generators and related transfer switches; stationary generators; single-engine industrial generators; industrial standby generators; industrial transfer switches; light towers, mobile generators, commercial mobile pumps, heaters, dust-suppression equipment, and mobile energy storage systems; battery energy storage system and related inverter products; and aftermarket service parts and product accessories. Further, it provides Concerto energy-balancing software platform for controlling and dispatching distributed energy resources. The company distributes its products through independent residential dealers, industrial distributors and dealers, national and regional retailers, e-commerce partners, electrical/HVAC/solar wholesalers, solar installers, catalogs, equipment rental companies, and other equipment distributors; and directly to end users. The company was founded in 1959 and is based in Waukesha, Wisconsin.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GNRC\"}}`" }, { "id": 39022, "title": "Will OXY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "short_title": "Will OXY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "url_title": "Will OXY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "slug": "will-oxys-market-close-price-on-2025-08-15-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-04", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:10.779093Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T04:10:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.133848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:11.118912Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T20:30:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:10:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38363, "title": "Will OXY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:10.779604Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T04:10:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T20:30:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:53.049458Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T05:10:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Occidental Petroleum Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is OXY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:34) is 43.41. You can find more information about Occidental Petroleum Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY\n\nOccidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; and vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"OXY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of OXY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-04, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Occidental Petroleum Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is OXY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:34) is 43.41. You can find more information about Occidental Petroleum Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OXY\n\nOccidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets basic chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride; and vinyls comprising vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. This segment invests in entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"OXY\"}}`" }, { "id": 39021, "title": "Will WMT's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "short_title": "Will WMT's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "url_title": "Will WMT's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "slug": "will-wmts-market-close-price-on-2025-08-13-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-05", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:10.268114Z", "published_at": "2025-08-05T09:15:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.955565Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:10.589006Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T06:33:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:43Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T09:15:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38362, "title": "Will WMT's market close price on 2025-08-13 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-05?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:10.268601Z", "open_time": "2025-08-05T09:15:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T06:33:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:43Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:28.757011Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-05T10:15:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Walmart Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:33) is 98.49. You can find more information about Walmart Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT\n\nWalmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, eCommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. The company also offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WMT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WMT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-05, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754387015.37028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754387015.37028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.53 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 4.519924703117177, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.537674922214614, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.537674922214614, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "baseline_archived_score": 4.519924703117177, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Walmart Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:33) is 98.49. You can find more information about Walmart Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT\n\nWalmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, eCommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. The company also offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WMT\"}}`" }, { "id": 39020, "title": "Will DDOG's market close price on 2025-08-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "short_title": "Will DDOG's market close price on 2025-08-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "url_title": "Will DDOG's market close price on 2025-08-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "slug": "will-ddogs-market-close-price-on-2025-08-16-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-04", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:09.596174Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T20:58:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.061180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:09.918666Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T02:36:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:48Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T20:58:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38361, "title": "Will DDOG's market close price on 2025-08-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:09.596624Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T20:58:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-16T02:36:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:39.624611Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T21:58:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Datadog, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DDOG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:31) is 135.6. You can find more information about Datadog, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DDOG\n\nDatadog, Inc. operates an observability and security platform for cloud applications in the United States and internationally. The company's products comprise infrastructure and application performance monitoring, log management, digital experience monitoring, continuous profiler, database monitoring, data observability, universal service monitoring, network monitoring, error tracking, incident management, workflow automation, observability pipelines, cloud cost and cloud security management, application security management, cloud SIEM, sensitive data scanner, event management and CI and LLM visibility. Datadog, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DDOG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DDOG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-04, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is DDOG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:31) is 135.6. You can find more information about Datadog, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DDOG\n\nDatadog, Inc. operates an observability and security platform for cloud applications in the United States and internationally. The company's products comprise infrastructure and application performance monitoring, log management, digital experience monitoring, continuous profiler, database monitoring, data observability, universal service monitoring, network monitoring, error tracking, incident management, workflow automation, observability pipelines, cloud cost and cloud security management, application security management, cloud SIEM, sensitive data scanner, event management and CI and LLM visibility. Datadog, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DDOG\"}}`" }, { "id": 39019, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "short_title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "url_title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "slug": "will-bmys-market-close-price-on-2025-08-15-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-04", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:08.963550Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T07:12:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.827449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:09.288866Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T21:36:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T07:12:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38360, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:08.964044Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T07:12:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T21:36:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:48.749702Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T08:12:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:30) is 44.23. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BMY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-04, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:30) is 44.23. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`" }, { "id": 39018, "title": "Will DVA's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "short_title": "Will DVA's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "url_title": "Will DVA's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "slug": "will-dvas-market-close-price-on-2025-08-15-be-higher-than-its-market-close-price-on-2025-08-04", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:08.265102Z", "published_at": "2025-08-04T09:56:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.892132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:08.596075Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T22:16:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:51Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T09:56:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32814, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench (BetaBench)", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-04", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-04T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-17T15:14:43Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-15T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:26:26.890167Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-19T03:30:10.697504Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38359, "title": "Will DVA's market close price on 2025-08-15 be higher than its market close price on 2025-08-04?", "created_at": "2025-08-02T23:29:08.265510Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T09:56:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-15T22:16:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-17T00:22:51Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-17T00:23:46.643123Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-04T10:56:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "DaVita Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DVA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:29) is 138.48. You can find more information about DaVita Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DVA\n\nDaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure in the United States. The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services in outpatient dialysis centers. It also offers outpatient, hospital inpatient, and home-based hemodialysis services; operates clinical laboratories that provide routine laboratory tests for dialysis and other physician-prescribed laboratory tests for ESRD patients; and management and administrative services to outpatient dialysis centers. In addition, the company offers integrated care and disease management services to patients in risk-based and other integrated care arrangements; clinical research programs; physician services; and comprehensive kidney care services. Further, it engages in the provision of inpatient dialysis services and related laboratory services; and transplant software business. The company was formerly known as DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc. and changed its name to DaVita Inc. in September 2016. DaVita Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DVA\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DVA. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-08-04, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39018, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "DaVita Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DVA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:29) is 138.48. You can find more information about DaVita Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DVA\n\nDaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure in the United States. The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services in outpatient dialysis centers. It also offers outpatient, hospital inpatient, and home-based hemodialysis services; operates clinical laboratories that provide routine laboratory tests for dialysis and other physician-prescribed laboratory tests for ESRD patients; and management and administrative services to outpatient dialysis centers. In addition, the company offers integrated care and disease management services to patients in risk-based and other integrated care arrangements; clinical research programs; physician services; and comprehensive kidney care services. Further, it engages in the provision of inpatient dialysis services and related laboratory services; and transplant software business. The company was formerly known as DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc. and changed its name to DaVita Inc. in September 2016. 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It's ticker is KMI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:28) is 28.1. You can find more information about Kinder Morgan, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KMI\n\nKinder Morgan, Inc. operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in North America. The company operates through Natural Gas Pipelines, Products Pipelines, Terminals, and CO2 segments. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline, and storage systems; natural gas gathering systems and natural gas processing and treating facilities; natural gas liquids fractionation facilities and transportation systems; and liquefied natural gas gasification, liquefaction, and storage facilities. The Products Pipelines segment owns and operates refined petroleum products, and crude oil and condensate pipelines; and associated product terminals and petroleum pipeline transmix facilities. 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It's ticker is JNJ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:26) is 167.33. You can find more information about Johnson & Johnson at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ\n\nJohnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as immunology, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis; infectious diseases comprising HIV/AIDS; neuroscience, consisting of mood disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and schizophrenia; oncology, such as prostate cancer, hematologic malignancies, lung cancer, and bladder cancer; cardiovascular and metabolism, including thrombosis, diabetes, and macular degeneration; and pulmonary hypertension comprising pulmonary arterial hypertension through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides electrophysiology products to treat heart rhythm disorders; the heart recovery portfolio, which includes technologies to treat severe coronary artery disease requiring high-risk PCI or AMI cardiogenic shock; circulatory restoration products for the treatment of calcified coronary artery and peripheral artery diseases; and neurovascular care that treats hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke. This segment offers an orthopaedics portfolio that includes products and enabling technologies that support hips, knees, trauma, spine, sports, and other; surgery portfolios comprising advanced and general surgery technologies, as well as solutions for breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; and TECNIS intraocular lenses for cataract surgery. It distributes its products to wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers, as well as physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals, and clinics. 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It's ticker is JNJ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:26) is 167.33. You can find more information about Johnson & Johnson at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ\n\nJohnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as immunology, including rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis; infectious diseases comprising HIV/AIDS; neuroscience, consisting of mood disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and schizophrenia; oncology, such as prostate cancer, hematologic malignancies, lung cancer, and bladder cancer; cardiovascular and metabolism, including thrombosis, diabetes, and macular degeneration; and pulmonary hypertension comprising pulmonary arterial hypertension through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides electrophysiology products to treat heart rhythm disorders; the heart recovery portfolio, which includes technologies to treat severe coronary artery disease requiring high-risk PCI or AMI cardiogenic shock; circulatory restoration products for the treatment of calcified coronary artery and peripheral artery diseases; and neurovascular care that treats hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke. This segment offers an orthopaedics portfolio that includes products and enabling technologies that support hips, knees, trauma, spine, sports, and other; surgery portfolios comprising advanced and general surgery technologies, as well as solutions for breast aesthetics and reconstruction; contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand; and TECNIS intraocular lenses for cataract surgery. It distributes its products to wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers, as well as physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals, and clinics. 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It's ticker is SMCI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:25) is 56.64. You can find more information about Super Micro Computer, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI\n\nSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers various IT solutions, including complete servers, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full-rack scale solutions, networking devices, server sub-systems, and server management and security software. The company also provides application-optimized server solutions, rackmount and blade servers, storage, and subsystems and accessories; and server software management solutions, such as Server Management Suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. In addition, it offers server subsystems and accessories, such as server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. Further, the company identifies service requirements, creates and executes project plans, conducts verification testing and training activities, and provides technical documentation services. Additionally, it offers help desk and onsite support services for server and storage systems; and customer support services, including ongoing maintenance and technical support. 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It's ticker is SMCI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:25) is 56.64. You can find more information about Super Micro Computer, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI\n\nSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells high performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open architecture in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers various IT solutions, including complete servers, storage systems, modular blade servers, blades, workstations, full-rack scale solutions, networking devices, server sub-systems, and server management and security software. 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It's ticker is RTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:24) is 156.81. You can find more information about RTX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RTX\n\nRTX Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers and commercial airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation, defense, and commercial space operations. 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It's ticker is RTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-02 23:28:24) is 156.81. You can find more information about RTX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RTX\n\nRTX Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, provides systems and services for the commercial, military, and government customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace Systems segment offers aerospace and defense products, and aftermarket service solutions for civil and military aircraft manufacturers and commercial airlines, as well as regional, business, and general aviation, defense, and commercial space operations. This segment also designs, produces, and supports cabin interior, including seating, oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation, storage and galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management systems; battlespace, test and training range systems, crew escape systems, and simulation and training solutions; information management services; and aftermarket services that include spare parts, overhaul and repair, engineering and technical support, training and fleet management solutions, and asset and information management services. The Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation customers; and produces, sells, and services military and commercial auxiliary power units. The Raytheon segment provides defensive and offensive threat detection, tracking, and mitigation capabilities for government, and commercial customers. The company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation and changed its name to RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation was incorporated in 1934 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RTX\"}}`" }, { "id": 39006, "title": "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?", "short_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?", "url_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?", "slug": "will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-test-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-31T18:42:49.894828Z", "published_at": "2025-07-31T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T18:00:17.029111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-31T18:46:37.748037Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T10:45:34.026514Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T10:45:34.026514Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38348, "title": "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-31T18:42:49.895235Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T18:46:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T18:46:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n\nAt the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n\nAccording to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n\n> Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39006, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762293952.803, "end_time": 1762359516.174, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762293952.803, "end_time": 1762359516.174, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.016 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.049060685010295105 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4086904201879484, 1.0384131802701977, 0.2569435305951722, 1.2383748726246533, 0.0, 1.2371199519298397, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.313578654206223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n\nAt the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n\nAccording to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n\n> Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn." }, { "id": 39005, "title": "Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?", "short_title": "Developed country >20% GDP growth before 2031?", "url_title": "Developed country >20% GDP growth before 2031?", "slug": "developed-country-20-gdp-growth-before-2031", "author_id": 135688, "author_username": "ljubomir", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-31T05:23:38.032383Z", "published_at": "2025-08-12T05:47:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T09:17:19.749155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-12T05:49:34.041087Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:47:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38347, "title": "Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?", "created_at": "2025-07-31T05:23:38.032770Z", "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:47:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-17T05:47:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-17T05:47:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been ongoing debate regarding whether we can develop AI superintelligence: i.e., AI smarter than any humans. Various tests have been proposed to determine the arrival of superintelligence, however they do not agree on the definition of ASI. \n\nHere, we propose to detect ASI without actually defining it, by measuring its' economic impact. According to The Economist (July 25, 2025 issue, \"The economics of superintelligence\"), AI superintelligence (ASI) may increase annual GDP growth rates to the 20-30% range. \n\nThis has never been achieved in history among developed nations and would signal the arrival of ASI because nothing else is thought to plausibly increase GDP by that much.\n\nThe attached graph shows highest recorded GDP growths in developed countries. Note that Macau is under the 2 million population threshold and is not a country.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves to Yes if any country that has a Human Development Index above 0.8 and a population above 2 million experiences real GDP growth of more than 20% in any year between 2026 and 2030 inclusive.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve using data from the OECD, IMF, and World Bank, and will only resolve if all three sources agree that the criteria has been met.\n\nIf a source no longer exists or measures GDP growth, then it will no longer be required to resolve this question. If all three sources no longer exist or measure GDP growth then this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 39005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760606229.508751, "end_time": 1763288229.312, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760606229.508751, "end_time": 1763288229.312, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03425566186697274 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been ongoing debate regarding whether we can develop AI superintelligence: i.e., AI smarter than any humans. Various tests have been proposed to determine the arrival of superintelligence, however they do not agree on the definition of ASI. \n\nHere, we propose to detect ASI without actually defining it, by measuring its' economic impact. According to The Economist (July 25, 2025 issue, \"The economics of superintelligence\"), AI superintelligence (ASI) may increase annual GDP growth rates to the 20-30% range. \n\nThis has never been achieved in history among developed nations and would signal the arrival of ASI because nothing else is thought to plausibly increase GDP by that much.\n\nThe attached graph shows highest recorded GDP growths in developed countries. Note that Macau is under the 2 million population threshold and is not a country." }, { "id": 39003, "title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "slug": "will-tampa-florida-hit-100f-in-august-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-31T00:05:32.028371Z", "published_at": "2025-07-31T00:07:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T04:34:45.781986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-31T00:08:35.872825Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T10:45:34.026514Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T10:45:34.026514Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38337, "title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-31T00:05:32.028722Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T00:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T00:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T20:05:39.948684Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fox 13 Tampa Bay: [Tampa hits 100 degrees breaking all-time temperature record](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tampa-hits-100-degrees-breaking-211636662.html)\n\n> Record heat has hit Florida hard this weekend and Tampa Bay has now hit a new high temperature milestone. On Sunday, the temperature hit 100 degrees in Tampa at around 3:10 p.m., according to the National Weather Service.\n\n> The previous record of 99 degrees was set on June 26, 2020. This is the hottest it has ever been in Tampa since record-keeping began in 1890. In Tampa, a heat advisory remains in effect until 7 p.m. on Sunday.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get and give feedback. We're all here to learn!", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 30, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the National Weather Service at its Tampa International Airport weather station reports a daily temperature maximum of greater than or equal to 100° Fahrenheit (37.78° Celcius), according to data presented at the [Data Calendar for Tampa Int'l Airport](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=FL_ASOS\\&station=TPA) at Iowa State Mesonet.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756629870.784758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756629870.784758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.12877287261092982 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4755244208507132, 2.0020633396701255, 0.887332896049865, 0.49114657277085993, 0.24311673443421436, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5678900028155001 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.95095742962266, "peer_score": 112.92100195724618, "coverage": 0.9914752325236618, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9914752325236618, "spot_peer_score": 143.2627659705956, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 69.95095742962266, "peer_archived_score": 112.92100195724618, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 143.2627659705956, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fox 13 Tampa Bay: [Tampa hits 100 degrees breaking all-time temperature record](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tampa-hits-100-degrees-breaking-211636662.html)\n\n> Record heat has hit Florida hard this weekend and Tampa Bay has now hit a new high temperature milestone. On Sunday, the temperature hit 100 degrees in Tampa at around 3:10 p.m., according to the National Weather Service.\n\n> The previous record of 99 degrees was set on June 26, 2020. This is the hottest it has ever been in Tampa since record-keeping began in 1890. In Tampa, a heat advisory remains in effect until 7 p.m. on Sunday.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get and give feedback. We're all here to learn!" }, { "id": 39002, "title": "Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia before 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia before 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-deadly-clash-between-thailand-and-cambodia-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-30T18:12:49.430967Z", "published_at": "2025-07-30T20:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T17:56:04.385977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-30T20:28:30.828750Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-30T21:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T09:37:40.340887Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T09:37:40.340887Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38336, "title": "Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-30T18:12:49.431356Z", "open_time": "2025-07-30T21:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-01T20:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T20:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there is a deadly clash between the military forces of Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more total fatalities between both sides, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as the close-quarters combat that occurred at[ Galwan Valley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) between forces of India and China in June 2020. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “military forces” means\n\n* personnel of the Royal Thai Armed Forces\n* personnel of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces\n* law‑enforcement personnel of either state\n* or any paramilitary or militia group allied with any of the above - for example, Thahan Phran (Thai Rangers).", "post_id": 39002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762234590.885, "end_time": 1762388133.232, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762234590.885, "end_time": 1762388133.232, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.08871374902957595 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.4998325749597323, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 1.4224573504472027, 0.0, 2.0698482321924665, 0.0, 0.38580301216248525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13339305152461883, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"" }, { "id": 38995, "title": "Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?", "short_title": "Prop 12 Nullified By Jan. 20th, 2029?", "url_title": "Prop 12 Nullified By Jan. 20th, 2029?", "slug": "prop-12-nullified-by-jan-20th-2029", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-30T15:10:46.347700Z", "published_at": "2025-08-12T05:26:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T18:56:44.104964Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-12T05:33:01.203055Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:26:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 38333, "title": "Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-30T15:10:46.348118Z", "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:26:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-17T05:26:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-17T05:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prop 12 is one of the largest and most successful animal welfare laws in the United States, and has been a consistent target of the Trump administration.\n\nIn July, 2025 the Department of Justice (DOJ) [filed a lawsuit](https://sentientmedia.org/trump-suing-to-overturn-prop-12/) against the state of California over its animal welfare laws - Prop 12, AB1437, and Prop 2 - arguing that it violated the Egg Products Inspection Act (EPIA). DOJ's main argument insists that California's laws disrupt uniformity of egg regulations around the country, which is a key part of EPIA. This argument primarily hinges on the legal definitions of EPIA's definitions of \"condition\" and \"quality\", but there is also a separate argument about labeling.\n\nAnother threat to the the law is the inclusion of provisions that invalidate Prop 12 in the coming renewal of the 2023 Farm Bill later this year. (Farm Bill tracker [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/issues/farm-policy/the-latest-updates-on-the-2025-farm-bill/), and explainer [<u>here </u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/farmbills/)and [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/our-work/farm-bill/))\n\n“Challenged Provisions: Specifically, the lawsuit challenges Proposition 12, Proposition 2 and AB 1437, all of which are provisions of California law dictating either living conditions for egg laying hens, the sale of eggs and egg products from those hens, or both.”\n\n* Prop 12 \n * “It combined aspects of the two previous laws, requiring California farmers to provide a minimum amount of square feet to egg-laying hens, veal calves, and breeding pigs, while also requiring that products sold within the state be traceable to animals living in similarly sized areas. \n * Note: “The sales provisions of “Prop 12” were challenged in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, a case that made its way to the Supreme Court of the United States. The Court ruled that the California law was constitutional and allowed it to go into effect.\n* Prop 2\n * “covered animals located in the state of California could not be prevented from lying down, standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437\n * “\\[...] a law that imposes those Prop 2 living conditions on egg producers in any other state or country that intended to sell their products in the state of California. Specifically, AB 1437 prohibited shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production was not in compliance with the California animal care standard.”\n* Labeling argument \n * “\\[...] violate the labeling provisions of 21 U.S.C. § 1052(b). This section mandates that “\\[labeling, packaging, or ingredient requirements, in addition to or different than those made under \\[the EPIA], the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act \\[21 U.S.C. 301 et seq.] and the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act \\[15 U.S.C. 1451 et seq.], may not be imposed by any State or local jurisdiction, with respect to egg products processed at any official plant in accordance with the requirements under this chapter and such Acts.” Note that the labeling preemption provisions apply to egg products, but not to shell eggs.”\n\n[<u>Source</u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/challenge-to-californias-hen-housing-laws/) for all quotes about the EPIA lawsuit.\n\nYou can find a large notepad of related facts and history for this question [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-challenges-to-prop-12?r=5dzdv5\\&utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web\\&triedRedirect=true).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the listed aspects of the listed laws are legally invalidated or superseded, either through a court ruling, or an overriding state or federal law before January 20th, 2029.\n\n* Prop 12:\n * New minimum space requirements for confining veal calves, breeding pigs, and egg-laying hens.\n * Egg-laying hens are required to be raised in cage-free environment.\n * Certain commercial sales of specified meat and egg products derived from animals confined in a noncomplying manner are prohibited.\n * Sales violations are defined as unfair competition.\n* Prop 2:\n * Covered animals located in the state of California can not be prevented from lying down or standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437:\n * Prohibits shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production is not in compliance with the California animal care standard.", "fine_print": "Any change making one or more of the laws less restrictive will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nAn expansion to the laws, such as increased space requirements, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 38995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761591393.702896, "end_time": 1766086370.27, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761591393.702896, "end_time": 1766086370.27, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6515554473578451 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.234690009817989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2958158145865448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prop 12 is one of the largest and most successful animal welfare laws in the United States, and has been a consistent target of the Trump administration.\n\nIn July, 2025 the Department of Justice (DOJ) [filed a lawsuit](https://sentientmedia.org/trump-suing-to-overturn-prop-12/) against the state of California over its animal welfare laws - Prop 12, AB1437, and Prop 2 - arguing that it violated the Egg Products Inspection Act (EPIA). DOJ's main argument insists that California's laws disrupt uniformity of egg regulations around the country, which is a key part of EPIA. This argument primarily hinges on the legal definitions of EPIA's definitions of \"condition\" and \"quality\", but there is also a separate argument about labeling.\n\nAnother threat to the the law is the inclusion of provisions that invalidate Prop 12 in the coming renewal of the 2023 Farm Bill later this year. (Farm Bill tracker [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/issues/farm-policy/the-latest-updates-on-the-2025-farm-bill/), and explainer [<u>here </u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/farmbills/)and [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/our-work/farm-bill/))\n\n“Challenged Provisions: Specifically, the lawsuit challenges Proposition 12, Proposition 2 and AB 1437, all of which are provisions of California law dictating either living conditions for egg laying hens, the sale of eggs and egg products from those hens, or both.”\n\n* Prop 12 \n * “It combined aspects of the two previous laws, requiring California farmers to provide a minimum amount of square feet to egg-laying hens, veal calves, and breeding pigs, while also requiring that products sold within the state be traceable to animals living in similarly sized areas. \n * Note: “The sales provisions of “Prop 12” were challenged in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, a case that made its way to the Supreme Court of the United States. The Court ruled that the California law was constitutional and allowed it to go into effect.\n* Prop 2\n * “covered animals located in the state of California could not be prevented from lying down, standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437\n * “\\[...] a law that imposes those Prop 2 living conditions on egg producers in any other state or country that intended to sell their products in the state of California. Specifically, AB 1437 prohibited shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production was not in compliance with the California animal care standard.”\n* Labeling argument \n * “\\[...] violate the labeling provisions of 21 U.S.C. § 1052(b). This section mandates that “\\[labeling, packaging, or ingredient requirements, in addition to or different than those made under \\[the EPIA], the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act \\[21 U.S.C. 301 et seq.] and the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act \\[15 U.S.C. 1451 et seq.], may not be imposed by any State or local jurisdiction, with respect to egg products processed at any official plant in accordance with the requirements under this chapter and such Acts.” Note that the labeling preemption provisions apply to egg products, but not to shell eggs.”\n\n[<u>Source</u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/challenge-to-californias-hen-housing-laws/) for all quotes about the EPIA lawsuit.\n\nYou can find a large notepad of related facts and history for this question [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-challenges-to-prop-12?r=5dzdv5\\&utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web\\&triedRedirect=true)." }, { "id": 38985, "title": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-launch-the-starship-three-or-more-times-in-the-second-half-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-29T14:29:09.769351Z", "published_at": "2025-07-29T15:34:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T05:21:30.180871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-29T15:35:00.232516Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-30T15:34:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38331, "title": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-29T14:29:09.769759Z", "open_time": "2025-07-30T15:34:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-03T15:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-03T15:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, 2025, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1949938925163962634), \"Starship launches again next month.\"\n\nAccording to [Orbital Today](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/07/29/starship-test-flight-expected-in-august-as-spacex-moves-rocket-for-checks/) on July 29, 2025, SpaceX's new launch cadence for Starship, which is intended to eventually send humans to the Moon and Mars, comes after a series of testing issues in the first half of 2025: \n\n> SpaceX is still addressing issues from a static [fire incident in June](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/19/spacexs-starship-explodes-during-test-ahead-of-10th-flight/), when the rocket’s second stage exploded during testing. The failure was traced to a fault in a pressurised nitrogen tank located in the ship’s nosecone area.\n\n> Earlier this year, all three Starship flights ended in explosions, including flight nine, where both stages were destroyed. The fallout has drawn criticism from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who raised concerns about contamination from debris landing across the border.\n\nIn May 2025, SpaceX [won approval ](https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/space/2025/05/07/spacex-secures-starship-boost-after-winning-approval-for-25-launches-a-year/)from the FAA for up to 25 launches a year. At the time of this question, the base rate information for SpaceX's Starship launches is as follows:\n\n| Launch Date (UTC) | Operator | Vehicle | Payload | Human Spaceflight | Site | State/Location |\n| ----------------- | -------- | -------------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ----------------------------- | -------------- |\n| 2023‑04‑20 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 1 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2023‑11‑18 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 2 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑03‑14 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 3 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑06‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 4 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑10‑13 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 5 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑11‑19 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 6 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑01‑16 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 7 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑03‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 8 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑05‑27 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 9 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n\nSee Also: [When will the following vehicles (including Starship) launch into orbit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13732/when-will-the-following-vehicles-launch-into-orbit/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there are 3 or more launches of SpaceX's Starship vehicle, according to the Federal Aviation Administration's [Licensed Launches ](https://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LicensedLaunches)database. For example, at the time of this question the most recent qualifying launch listed was the Starship Super-Heavy on May 27, 2025.", "fine_print": "For simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess FAA's definitions or methodologies when it come to whether a launch occurs, and this question will resolve based on FAA's launch reporting.\n\nIn the event of any issues with the resolution source such as reporting delays, Admins may resolve the question based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If Metaculus relies on credible sources rather than the FAA's launch reporting, it will define a \"launch\" as occurring when a Starship vehicle leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power.", "post_id": 38985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762320079.886217, "end_time": 1762690897.484, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762320079.886217, "end_time": 1762690897.484, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07216937050048908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5305774692409481, 3.011358525002761, 0.459076198919707, 1.8257349995002439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3087032715562814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, 2025, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1949938925163962634), \"Starship launches again next month.\"\n\nAccording to [Orbital Today](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/07/29/starship-test-flight-expected-in-august-as-spacex-moves-rocket-for-checks/) on July 29, 2025, SpaceX's new launch cadence for Starship, which is intended to eventually send humans to the Moon and Mars, comes after a series of testing issues in the first half of 2025: \n\n> SpaceX is still addressing issues from a static [fire incident in June](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/19/spacexs-starship-explodes-during-test-ahead-of-10th-flight/), when the rocket’s second stage exploded during testing. The failure was traced to a fault in a pressurised nitrogen tank located in the ship’s nosecone area.\n\n> Earlier this year, all three Starship flights ended in explosions, including flight nine, where both stages were destroyed. The fallout has drawn criticism from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who raised concerns about contamination from debris landing across the border.\n\nIn May 2025, SpaceX [won approval ](https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/space/2025/05/07/spacex-secures-starship-boost-after-winning-approval-for-25-launches-a-year/)from the FAA for up to 25 launches a year. At the time of this question, the base rate information for SpaceX's Starship launches is as follows:\n\n| Launch Date (UTC) | Operator | Vehicle | Payload | Human Spaceflight | Site | State/Location |\n| ----------------- | -------- | -------------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ----------------------------- | -------------- |\n| 2023‑04‑20 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 1 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2023‑11‑18 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 2 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑03‑14 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 3 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑06‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 4 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑10‑13 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 5 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑11‑19 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 6 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑01‑16 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 7 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑03‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 8 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑05‑27 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 9 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n\nSee Also: [When will the following vehicles (including Starship) launch into orbit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13732/when-will-the-following-vehicles-launch-into-orbit/)" } ] }
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