Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=680
{ "count": 5894, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=660", "results": [ { "id": 37099, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "short_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "url_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "slug": "will-china-and-the-eu-reach-a-trade-or-tariff-agreement-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345418Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T14:27:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.993918Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-18T14:28:16.250997Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36494, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345859Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-23T14:27:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-23T14:27:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the People's Republic of China and the European Union, according to[<u> credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must be a formal, binding arrangement (e.g., a signed trade deal, tariff adjustment agreement, or minimum pricing deal for specific goods like electric vehicles) that directly addresses trade flows, tariffs, or subsidies between the two parties. Non-binding memoranda of understanding, joint statements of intent, or agreements limited to non-trade issues (e.g., climate or cultural cooperation) do not qualify. If no such agreement is announced by the deadline, or if credible sources do not confirm an agreement, the question will resolve as 'No'.\" Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756285888.565, "end_time": 1759834486.945, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756285888.565, "end_time": 1759834486.945, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20233727986126948 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3678794411714423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports." }, { "id": 37097, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.983097Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.899646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36492, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.983097Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:31.793124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \r\n\r\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\r\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\r\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \r\n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n\r\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\r\n\r\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\r\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\r\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\r\n\r\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\r\n\r\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \r\n\r\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \r\n\r\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\r\n\r\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\r\n\r\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.\r\n\r\nIf the event occurs before the question closes, the question resolves as Yes.", "post_id": 37097, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745550636.756797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745550636.756797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19353563927424053 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8273642036695144, 0.711652044292747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.98308032109279, "peer_score": 0.7787116849907512, "coverage": 0.8128957747552129, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8128957747552129, "spot_peer_score": -0.15967882342199008, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 51.98308032109279, "peer_archived_score": 0.7787116849907512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.15967882342199008, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \r\n\r\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\r\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\r\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \r\n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n\r\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\r\n\r\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\r\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\r\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\r\n\r\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 37096, "title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-harvard-university-lose-its-tax-exempt-status-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.978236Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.395078Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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Status, Escalating Billion-Dollar Pressure Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2025, Harvard loses its [501(c)(3) status](https://oc.finance.harvard.edu/faq/harvard-university-tax-exempt-organization).", "fine_print": "If there is no credible reporting that Harvard has lost its 501(c)(3) status with the Internal Revenue Service before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. 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AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36487, "title": "Will the US government's harmonized tariff schedule list the tariff on Switzerland as 31% on June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.517351Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-24T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-24T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T20:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-01T20:44:43.595341Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-24T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-24T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Swiss Indignant to Make the Top 10 of Trump’s Tariffs List](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/04/business/trump-tariffs-switzerland.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the duty provided in the applicable subheading is + 31% for Switzerland at the American government's [harmonized tariff schedule](https://hts.usitc.gov/search?query=switzerland) when accessed by Metaculus on or after June 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Whether the provision is listed as suspended will not affect resolution.\n\nPlease note that this question is asking whether the cell in the 'RATES OF DUTY' column '1, General' appearing alongside subheading 9903.01.60 on the Harmonized Tariff Schedule indicates an additional ad valorem duty rate of 31% for articles the product of Switzerland, regardless of any specificities noted in the 'Article Description' column.  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Less than or equal to that amount resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "Preliminary results are sufficient to resolve the question. If there is any confusion about the number, Metaculus will resolve based on whatever number is posted at [this pdf](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/tbcics.pdf) that is labelled as May 2025, including preliminary. 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Stapleton has 5 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37087, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745265784.683146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745265784.683146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5133009987198562 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9926413276795596, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.033854778168763, "peer_score": 3.0612708611427606, "coverage": 0.9469508724835185, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9469508724835185, "spot_peer_score": 4.641894351089025, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -7.033854778168763, "peer_archived_score": 3.0612708611427606, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.641894351089025, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Stapleton has 5 nominations." }, { "id": 37086, "title": "Will Han Duck-soo announce his candidacy for South Korean president before May 5, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-han-duck-soo-announce-his-candidacy-for-south-korean-president-before-may-5-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.224340Z", "published_at": "2025-04-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.426500Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T21:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36481, "title": "Will Han Duck-soo announce his candidacy for South Korean president before May 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.224340Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T21:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T21:34:14.562161Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chosun Daily: [Support grows in PPP to draft Acting President Han for June election](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464554)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Han Duck-soo announces his candidacy for president of South Korea before May 5, 2025. 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"created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.166052Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:04.472585Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 37052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 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military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 37051, "title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-harvard-university-lose-its-tax-exempt-status-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.161428Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.118700Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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