Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=700
http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=680", "results": [ { "id": 37034, "title": "Will the number of active US drilling rigs be less than 583 for the week ending May 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-active-us-drilling-rigs-be-less-than-583-for-the-week-ending-may-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.753325Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.310165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36429, "title": "Will the number of active US drilling rigs be less than 583 for the week ending May 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.753325Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T17:57:19.146513Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-23T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SeekingAlpha: [U.S. rig count falls for third straight week, Baker Hughes says](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4430543-u-s-rig-count-falls-for-third-straight-week-baker-hughes-says)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the last count of active US drilling rigs for the week ending May 30, 2025, according to the [Baker Hughes North America Rig Count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count), is less than 583. Specifically, it will resolve based on the number listed as the United States Total for the most recent week in the May 30, 2025 North America Rig Count Report. This is the number of active drilling rigs and includes the total of those classified as gas, oil and miscellaneous, in every US location including inland waters, land and offshore.", "fine_print": "If no report dated May 30, 2025, is released before June 1, 2025, Eastern Time, Metaculus may resolve this question using the most recent report available dated between May 23, 2025, and June 1, 2025, inclusive. If no such report exists, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 37034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745428576.077417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745428576.077417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5873111223705146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03081720770343554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1545955725859287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41125231153725894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0, 0.5845890119556345, 0.0, 0.0, 2.558432930201215, 0.0, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 0.2992119338252941, 2.4432192029780326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 3.425486184111206, 0.6831013776873005, 0.7364146411824579, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0393700257812648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390239661988812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06876276127162699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.30869936007063, "peer_score": 8.856000847072256, "coverage": 0.9850316390395163, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9850316390395163, "spot_peer_score": 6.501501108440086, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 28.30869936007063, "peer_archived_score": 8.856000847072256, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.501501108440086, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SeekingAlpha: [U.S. rig count falls for third straight week, Baker Hughes says](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4430543-u-s-rig-count-falls-for-third-straight-week-baker-hughes-says)" }, { "id": 37033, "title": "Will Zimbabwe, before June 1, 2025, make another payment to white farmers whose property was seized?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-zimbabwe-before-june-1-2025-make-another-payment-to-white-farmers-whose-property-was-seized", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.748179Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.800535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T14:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36428, "title": "Will the Zimbabwe, before June 1, 2025, make another payment to white farmers whose property was seized?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.748179Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T14:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T14:08:56.432920Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-23T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Zimbabwe reaffirms commitment to land compensation to spur growth, debt sustainability](https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2025/04/10/zimbabwe-reaffirms-commitment-to-land-compensation-to-spur-growth-debt-sustainability)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) the government of Zimbabwe after the launch of this question and before June 1, 2025 makes an additional payment to former farmers covered under the 2020 Global Compensation Deed.", "fine_print": "On April 9, 2025, Zimbabwe [was reported](https://nehandaradio.com/2025/04/09/zimbabwe-pays-us3-1m-to-former-white-farmers-as-part-of-land-compensation-deal/) to have made its first compensation payment, of USD $3.1 million. Additional such disbursements made after the launch of this question and before June 1, 2025 would count.", "post_id": 37033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745421568.169497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5466666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745421568.169497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5466666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3744385862934782 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5092498288537453, 0.37113480134217347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.3217261638678274, 0.015157278973843901, 0.7261334022472516, 0.7224118428915302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6831013776873005, 1.2944801906682741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5990421518185429, 1.7276203676226392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9396406647936779, 0.0, 1.0872791799375439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6333531164139763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.457422476445143, 0.11693021616061994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2974937224609864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6717755117422146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2640453216481563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.640272397078824, "peer_score": 16.513202759551373, "coverage": 0.9852988919284609, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9852988919284609, "spot_peer_score": 15.375078928356636, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 42.640272397078824, "peer_archived_score": 16.513202759551373, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.375078928356636, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Zimbabwe reaffirms commitment to land compensation to spur growth, debt sustainability](https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2025/04/10/zimbabwe-reaffirms-commitment-to-land-compensation-to-spur-growth-debt-sustainability)" }, { "id": 37023, "title": "Will the May 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for April 2025?", "short_title": "Will the May 2025 U of Mich Consumer Sentiment be > than it was for April 2025?", "url_title": "Will the May 2025 U of Mich Consumer Sentiment be > than it was for April 2025?", "slug": "will-the-may-2025-u-of-mich-consumer-sentiment-be-than-it-was-for-april-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.229015Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.015324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T10:34:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36418, "title": "Will the May 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for April 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.229015Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T10:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-17T10:38:39.879412Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNN: [US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april/index.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the University of Michigan's reported Index of Consumer Sentiment, expected to be located [here](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/), is greater than 50.8 for May 2025. Less than or equal to that amount resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "Preliminary results are sufficient to resolve the question. If there is any confusion about the number, Metaculus will resolve based on whatever number is posted at [this pdf](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/tbcics.pdf) that is labelled as May 2025, including preliminary. For example, on April 11, 2025 the number displayed was 50.8 for April 2025 (P).", "post_id": 37023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745351305.417755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745351305.417755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3299107496291719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.400530700699965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13815210061415184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8833459156529938, 0.3249648018114994, 1.8245973343412736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5151457763180534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8648809216442492, 0.0, 0.208753764822917, 0.3488997690348788, 0.0, 1.955780113362235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3743328230494786, 0.0, 0.7949127371976848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04003382141913891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04397920349508898, 0.0, 0.03226982664943769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 40.00357773320543, "peer_score": 3.870727590574802, "coverage": 0.9865802895691658, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865802895691658, "spot_peer_score": 0.7434555237601256, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 40.00357773320543, "peer_archived_score": 3.870727590574802, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.7434555237601256, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNN: [US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april/index.html)" }, { "id": 37022, "title": "Will Ukraine's government debt be at least 1.90 trillion UAH in March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraines-government-debt-be-at-least-190-trillion-uah-in-march-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.002038Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.839415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-12T21:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36417, "title": "Will Ukraine's government debt be at least 1.90 trillion UAH in March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.002038Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-12T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-12T21:14:55.600613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ukraine is one step away from stagflation. And here's why](https://en.iz.ru/en/1868046/2025-04-10/ukraine-one-step-away-stagflation-and-heres-why)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Ukraine's government debt is greater than or equal to 1.90 billion UAH Thousand (in other words, 1.90 trillion Ukrainian hryvnia for the month of March 2025, according to the number presented by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/government-debt). Under 1.90 billion UAH Thousand resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745342221.879503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8209148999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745342221.879503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8209148999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8654728024957797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38836694811145056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021507104137025754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014003379319251127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5912368114370814, 1.5430305825400392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7231248136457471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09963482656708067, 0.0, 0.448009849128789, 0.0, 0.8245956564854738, 1.1015283463715895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.980925640562515, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2329806478713907, 0.05647213919671424, 0.1961236648474275, 0.02077493900944314, 3.542187527136266 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -260.78333502840997, "peer_score": 53.067112836742325, "coverage": 0.9829520873559845, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9829520873559845, "spot_peer_score": 71.07262532588616, "spot_baseline_score": -232.1928094887363, "baseline_archived_score": -260.78333502840997, "peer_archived_score": 53.067112836742325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 71.07262532588616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -232.1928094887363 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ukraine is one step away from stagflation. And here's why](https://en.iz.ru/en/1868046/2025-04-10/ukraine-one-step-away-stagflation-and-heres-why)" }, { "id": 37021, "title": "Will Ukraine's inflation rate increase to at least 15.0% for April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraines-inflation-rate-increase-to-at-least-150-for-april-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.997373Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.078525Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-13T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36416, "title": "Will Ukraine's inflation rate increase to at least 15.0% for April 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.997373Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-13T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-13T19:03:10.961585Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ukraine is one step away from stagflation. And here's why](https://en.iz.ru/en/1868046/2025-04-10/ukraine-one-step-away-stagflation-and-heres-why)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Ukraine's annualized inflation rate is greater than or equal to 15.0% for the month of April 2025, according to the number presented by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/inflation-cpi). Under 15.0% resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745335291.888702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44399999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.6416666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745335291.888702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44399999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.6416666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3583333333333333, 0.6416666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.569708527592116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041436542674184174, 0.0, 0.36118923055942104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36212233125238075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10643725811374476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.879817146123457, 0.0, 0.571028331865133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5303705323378971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3676380071275589, 0.0, 0.8245956564854738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021507104137025754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5521707312792997, 0.5456564861030844, 0.1535071897926381, 0.0, 0.24826285979550225, 0.0, 0.25498005390995043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 2.4695123914914885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1258978053369093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07558440864786083, 0.5153518936135082, 2.06978414496405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6326680595244999, 0.0, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 31.24546419899267, "peer_score": 33.67015482165593, "coverage": 0.9839793712562983, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839793712562983, "spot_peer_score": 35.46456540701468, "spot_baseline_score": 35.9895945086383, "baseline_archived_score": 31.24546419899267, "peer_archived_score": 33.67015482165593, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.46456540701468, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 35.9895945086383 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ukraine is one step away from stagflation. And here's why](https://en.iz.ru/en/1868046/2025-04-10/ukraine-one-step-away-stagflation-and-heres-why)" }, { "id": 37020, "title": "Will Post Malone win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-post-malone-win-an-award-at-the-60th-academy-of-country-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.992661Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.906885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36415, "title": "Will Post Malone win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.992661Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:12:06.982608Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Malone has 4 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Post Malone wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745329443.174691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745329443.174691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5125, 0.4875 ], "means": [ 0.49098635937816765 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3645648957485751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006043168560687309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13249979905882817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04681977822030203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7740582225217716, 0.0, 3.005867483278463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7250745315089938, 0.0, 0.7214616906393053, 0.4205524304686736, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9144110305720341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6351213730797269, 0.0, 0.07508911023960842, 0.0, 0.8258953232607744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02302742398752256, 0.27144266175998527, 0.4837672471425741, 0.0, 0.33905283347288273, 0.918791003481169, 0.0, 0.07791871383103789, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6648661070317807, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0705082770464047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.491523617187452, "peer_score": 3.441917317759873, "coverage": 0.9871078300144936, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871078300144936, "spot_peer_score": -1.8346776469818178, "spot_baseline_score": 3.5623909730721217, "baseline_archived_score": 13.491523617187452, "peer_archived_score": 3.441917317759873, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8346776469818178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 3.5623909730721217 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Malone has 4 nominations." }, { "id": 37019, "title": "Will Chris Stapleton win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chris-stapleton-win-an-award-at-the-60th-academy-of-country-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.987825Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.688380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36414, "title": "Will Chris Stapleton win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.987825Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:06:39.877254Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Stapleton has 5 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745321427.850919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745321427.850919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7767957119114385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004697335090360764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7026687561587782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30690560359573066, 0.0, 2.3098759495895886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885226963260081, 0.8897204730725825, 2.419549420022425, 0.0, 0.9484619403905583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6402189560000633, 0.0, 0.5725020737927151, 0.5492799034882604, 0.0, 2.854455659604004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28570051944328617, 0.0, 0.11608931509631863, 0.07323387050617254, 0.6743195377416064, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.0, 0.09700195938329419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.700276474037516, "peer_score": 1.4674164301975703, "coverage": 0.9875929408272107, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9875929408272107, "spot_peer_score": -1.3901916464194672, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 61.700276474037516, "peer_archived_score": 1.4674164301975703, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3901916464194672, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Stapleton has 5 nominations." }, { "id": 37018, "title": "Will Kelsea Ballerini win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kelsea-ballerini-win-an-award-at-the-60th-academy-of-country-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.982707Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.983695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36413, "title": "Will Kelsea Ballerini win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.982707Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:13:56.492635Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Ballerini has 3 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kelsea Ballerini wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37018, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745314220.635019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745314220.635019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3919316911963686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991016446417691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1029927867117464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3004563071674322, 0.0, 0.3358380584080713, 0.7876430811287041, 0.0, 1.7200990833484706, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 1.104814932600922, 0.0, 1.433754662659498, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.61443971782953, 0.8831866410185989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.43822086120970344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.605145984878575, "peer_score": 1.3565048080933706, "coverage": 0.9856246127684911, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9856246127684911, "spot_peer_score": 3.0184770136801475, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 28.605145984878575, "peer_archived_score": 1.3565048080933706, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0184770136801475, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Ballerini has 3 nominations." }, { "id": 37015, "title": "Will Han Duck-soo announce his candidacy for South Korean president before May 5, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-han-duck-soo-announce-his-candidacy-for-south-korean-president-before-may-5-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.741460Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.423568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T21:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36410, "title": "Will Han Duck-soo announce his candidacy for South Korean president before May 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.741460Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T21:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T21:42:41.323919Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chosun Daily: [Support grows in PPP to draft Acting President Han for June election](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464554)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Han Duck-soo announces his candidacy for president of South Korea before May 5, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745293197.157137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2703140666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745293197.157137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2703140666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3567232472233253 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 1.0332691666474711, 0.61443971782953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07645564478462041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3961752312759704, 0.3959024854751523, 0.0, 0.7876430811287041, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0994330916743174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8537419995997547, 0.0, 2.2208109604638455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5748527150192452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8479688824140589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18413557579487133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5632568286190016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2606372878294265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -60.78976357985255, "peer_score": 17.773521151416666, "coverage": 0.9651039215260082, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9651039215260082, "spot_peer_score": 15.726191745784229, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -60.78976357985255, "peer_archived_score": 17.773521151416666, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.726191745784229, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chosun Daily: [Support grows in PPP to draft Acting President Han for June election](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464554)" }, { "id": 37014, "title": "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2025 Kent County Council election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-reform-uk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-kent-county-council-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.736730Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.545658Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-04T09:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36409, "title": "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2025 Kent County Council election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.736730Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-04T09:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-04T09:29:50.033591Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "KentOnline: [Electoral Calculus poll predicts Reform UK will take control of Kent County Council](https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/poll-predicts-reform-uk-will-win-county-council-election-321848/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Reform UK controls the most seats following the [2025 Kent County Council election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Kent_County_Council_election)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745287064.853294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745287064.853294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3430972345788068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0487396458927973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 1.0630748054579973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1673678764124465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23001530144886206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0701064893312755, 0.28794148447432993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4701466577355266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2646631299949367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7901231007495353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31791269281136625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -85.05832768580119, "peer_score": 6.930238318039789, "coverage": 0.9850810479124386, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9850810479124386, "spot_peer_score": 30.95079373115425, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -85.05832768580119, "peer_archived_score": 6.930238318039789, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.95079373115425, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "KentOnline: [Electoral Calculus poll predicts Reform UK will take control of Kent County Council](https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/poll-predicts-reform-uk-will-win-county-council-election-321848/)" }, { "id": 37013, "title": "Will the Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2025 Cornwall Council election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-liberal-democrats-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-cornwall-council-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.731671Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.038106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36408, "title": "Will the Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2025 Cornwall Council election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.731671Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T11:46:03.329746Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cornwall Live: [Cornwall Council elections 2025](https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-council-elections-2025-liberal-10099314)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Democrats Party controls the most seats following the [2025 Cornwall Council election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cornwall_Council_election)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745278418.055058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745278418.055058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3576805119118289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511459123085843, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2510492765156465, 0.0, 0.401327957992393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751837243174149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.9922958670579283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 2.5872604533420964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.30445314579120214, 0.7128908605983271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9038575064460865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1675445699943534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.61002052478346, "peer_score": 8.531952249897792, "coverage": 0.9877733677625656, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9877733677625656, "spot_peer_score": 11.076083843187151, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 44.61002052478346, "peer_archived_score": 8.531952249897792, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.076083843187151, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cornwall Live: [Cornwall Council elections 2025](https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/cornwall-council-elections-2025-liberal-10099314)" }, { "id": 37012, "title": "Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the 2025 West Northamptonshire Council election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-conservative-party-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-west-northamptonshire-council-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.489401Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.998741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36407, "title": "Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the 2025 West Northamptonshire Council election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.489401Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T11:41:59.293902Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC: [A guide to Northamptonshire's local elections 2025](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g80vme52o)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Conservative Party controls the most seats following the [2025 West Northamptonshire Council election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_West_Northamptonshire_Council_election)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745271020.214159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745271020.214159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4948865632219305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5221560426127163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5685529016609817, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.8554006031583444, 0.0, 0.8361822034504688, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1219359211735656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7065713162743996, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.567991630230697, 0.0, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9812075315320656, 0.6716766914738247, 0.0, 0.2511459123085843, 0.0, 0.0206447022934318, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2767645108512169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.780607169236752, "peer_score": 1.0891991351622843, "coverage": 0.986330854859617, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.986330854859617, "spot_peer_score": 2.190883483969711, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -18.780607169236752, "peer_archived_score": 1.0891991351622843, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.190883483969711, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC: [A guide to Northamptonshire's local elections 2025](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2g80vme52o)" }, { "id": 37011, "title": "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2025 Derbyshire County Council election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-reform-uk-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-derbyshire-county-council-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.484774Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.549144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36406, "title": "Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2025 Derbyshire County Council election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.484774Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T11:40:10.723076Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC: ['Unusual' election campaign under way in Derbyshire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg41lzylq64o)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Reform UK controls the most seats following the [2025 Derbyshire County Council election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Derbyshire_County_Council_election)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745263821.76348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745263821.76348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1609143966057051 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2714154180589184, 0.0, 0.6795322104011331, 0.0, 1.1485910741890522, 0.5213088995702323, 0.0, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 1.3699201485790482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.218800959391235, 0.0, 0.3961752312759704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7910428974983948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14141305690459563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1705776490357748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8228508604300498, 0.7876430811287041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.115269369020162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.195874399049728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -177.50305325059, "peer_score": -7.936118081438538, "coverage": 0.9846811631984183, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9846811631984183, "spot_peer_score": -0.04440073501597072, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -177.50305325059, "peer_archived_score": -7.936118081438538, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.04440073501597072, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC: ['Unusual' election campaign under way in Derbyshire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg41lzylq64o)" }, { "id": 37009, "title": "Will Haley Stevens announce her candidacy for US Senator from Michigan before May 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-haley-stevens-announce-her-candidacy-for-us-senator-from-michigan-before-may-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.475378Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.971088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-22T09:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36404, "title": "Will Haley Stevens announce her candidacy for US Senator from Michigan before May 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.475378Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-22T09:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-22T11:52:36.138207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNN: [Democrats lose another top contender for US Senate seat in Michigan after Whitmer and Buttigieg bow out](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/politics/michigan-senate-race-democrats-mcdonald-rivet/index.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Haley Stevens announces her candidacy for US Senator from Michigan before May 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745250323.052269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6799999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745250323.052269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6799999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32000000000000006, 0.6799999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.5900647614532385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.121611218200082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1005631988818666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5503287803421635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4562533733183832, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3933977868034193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07931986486671995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8980771188561241, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.716439045345342, 1.0786491869617214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37974261668515136, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 1.3907118617175445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.655751683989234, "peer_score": 28.396268932758723, "coverage": 0.9972703466812769, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9972703466812769, "spot_peer_score": 36.98485524244902, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 27.655751683989234, "peer_archived_score": 28.396268932758723, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.98485524244902, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNN: [Democrats lose another top contender for US Senate seat in Michigan after Whitmer and Buttigieg bow out](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/politics/michigan-senate-race-democrats-mcdonald-rivet/index.html)" }, { "id": 37008, "title": "Will a state of emergency be in effect in Samoa on April 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-state-of-emergency-be-in-effect-in-samoa-on-april-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.470357Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.996975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T10:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36403, "title": "Will a state of emergency be in effect in Samoa on April 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.470357Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T10:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-02T10:58:01.035203Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Samoan Prime Minister declares state of emergency over power cuts](https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360634988/samoan-prime-minister-declares-state-emergency-over-power-cuts)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) Samoa is in a state of emergency that has been declared by a governmental entity with the authority to make such a declaration.", "fine_print": "For example, the state of emergency declaration [posted](https://www.facebook.com/samoagovt/posts/hon-prime-minister-of-samoa-press-statement-proclamation-of-emergency-energy-cri/1059050259591457/) by the government of Samoa on Facebook on March 31, 2025 would count. (Note that when it was declared, it was scheduled to be in effect through April 29, 2025.)", "post_id": 37008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745241565.673352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20324061538461535 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745241565.673352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20324061538461535 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.39505138150280045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.480467156246001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.740137923109664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 1.1145656561503312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8518997732360121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36337410361408656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3181341908389948, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 1.0729004173396293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3441786781302661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.91588063226073, "peer_score": 44.112356490916774, "coverage": 0.9843478119373321, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9843478119373321, "spot_peer_score": 54.99585606365719, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 27.91588063226073, "peer_archived_score": 44.112356490916774, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 54.99585606365719, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Samoan Prime Minister declares state of emergency over power cuts](https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360634988/samoan-prime-minister-declares-state-emergency-over-power-cuts)" }, { "id": 37007, "title": "Will the People's National Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Trinidad and Tobago election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-peoples-national-movement-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-trinidad-and-tobago-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.236708Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.568738Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T09:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36402, "title": "Will the People's National Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Trinidad and Tobago election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.236708Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T09:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-29T09:50:03.872404Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Trinidad and Tobago to hold early elections in late April](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trinidad-tobago-hold-general-elections-april-28-2025-03-18/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the People's National Movement wins a plurality of seats in the [2025 Trinidad and Tobago general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Trinidad_and_Tobago_general_election).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745231618.659715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745231618.659715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5706583337191657 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7886448557484629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 1.7781424760091769, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.0, 0.0, 2.104603039493055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -31.98141558262728, "peer_score": -3.016535920676996, "coverage": 0.9865192770957947, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865192770957947, "spot_peer_score": -3.364919983247538, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -31.98141558262728, "peer_archived_score": -3.016535920676996, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.364919983247538, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Trinidad and Tobago to hold early elections in late April](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trinidad-tobago-hold-general-elections-april-28-2025-03-18/)" }, { "id": 37006, "title": "Will Bloc Québécois win more seats in Quebec than the Conservative Party?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bloc-quebecois-win-more-seats-in-quebec-than-the-conservative-party", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.231147Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.059602Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36401, "title": "Will Bloc Québécois win more seats in Quebec than the Conservative Party?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.231147Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-30T17:40:48.612780Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carney’s Surge in Quebec Could Wipe the Sovereigntist Party Off the Map](https://thewalrus.ca/carneys-surge-in-quebec-could-wipe-the-sovereigntist-party-off-the-map/) | [In Quebec City, a Conservative candidate cannot run and the Bloc is benefitting](https://nationalpost.com/news/in-quebec-city-a-conservative-candidate-cannot-run-and-the-bloc-is-benefitting)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Bloc Québécois party wins more seats in Quebec than the Conservative Party of Canada in the [2025 Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election). If it wins the same or fewer seats, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37006, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745226814.826696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.712 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7966666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745226814.826696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.712 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7966666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28800000000000003, 0.712 ], "means": [ 0.68943619146897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09704211567153122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8791012369184654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8627839180204521, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6490564168471211, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43610153402028, 0.3325315572279212, 0.2699322600469583, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 1.151441103765883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.9195046140969454, 0.6617555390564243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.055948069936159486, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.92556036549505, "peer_score": 20.028703938984144, "coverage": 0.9838244011004766, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9838244011004766, "spot_peer_score": 17.407082294274925, "spot_baseline_score": 50.99491463043107, "baseline_archived_score": 52.92556036549505, "peer_archived_score": 20.028703938984144, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.407082294274925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.99491463043107 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carney’s Surge in Quebec Could Wipe the Sovereigntist Party Off the Map](https://thewalrus.ca/carneys-surge-in-quebec-could-wipe-the-sovereigntist-party-off-the-map/) | [In Quebec City, a Conservative candidate cannot run and the Bloc is benefitting](https://nationalpost.com/news/in-quebec-city-a-conservative-candidate-cannot-run-and-the-bloc-is-benefitting)" }, { "id": 37005, "title": "Will the Liberal Party win 172 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-liberal-party-win-172-or-more-seats-in-the-2025-canadian-federal-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.226347Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.074359Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36400, "title": "Will the Liberal Party win 172 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.226347Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-30T17:42:20.782827Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[338Canada Federal Projection](https://338canada.com/federal.htm): \"The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Party of Canada wins greater than or equal to 172 seats in the [2025 Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745221603.233215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745221603.233215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7191856692071021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0079789225546913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.01207354803198191, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 1.0043952176744433, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 2.0602271288730227, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2644816786802882, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -122.08147187335354, "peer_score": -14.558477380754022, "coverage": 0.985653015838729, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985653015838729, "spot_peer_score": -13.57760813821398, "spot_baseline_score": -125.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -122.08147187335354, "peer_archived_score": -14.558477380754022, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -13.57760813821398, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -125.15387669959645 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[338Canada Federal Projection](https://338canada.com/federal.htm): \"The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.\"" }, { "id": 37004, "title": "Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in the 2025 Canadian federal election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-conservative-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2025-canadian-federal-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.221491Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.518223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36399, "title": "Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in the 2025 Canadian federal election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.221491Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-30T17:38:35.075450Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Politico: [What the Polls in Canada Are Really Saying](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/14/canada-election-trump-polls-00286002)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Conservative Party of Canada wins the highest number of popular votes in the [2025 Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745214533.726226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745214533.726226, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2595625951145596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0244605308921222, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 1.0796818193602924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3393635929276941, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6934842012401097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2850433832170336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.41032254368007, "peer_score": 4.318127465338962, "coverage": 0.9967008349961705, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967008349961705, "spot_peer_score": 4.295291061166868, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 57.41032254368007, "peer_archived_score": 4.318127465338962, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.295291061166868, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Politico: [What the Polls in Canada Are Really Saying](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/14/canada-election-trump-polls-00286002)" }, { "id": 37003, "title": "Will the Social Democratic Party of Austria win the most seats in the 2025 Viennese state election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-social-democratic-party-of-austria-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-viennese-state-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.215484Z", "published_at": "2025-04-21T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.186521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36398, "title": "Will the Social Democratic Party of Austria win the most seats in the 2025 Viennese state election?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.215484Z", "open_time": "2025-04-21T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-29T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-29T11:01:04.361913Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "See for example election polls at [Vienna: Poll by IFDD from 24.03.2025](https://politpro.eu/en/austria/polls/63413/ifdd/2025-03-24)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Social Democratic Party of Austria wins a plurality of seats in the [2025 Viennese state election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Viennese_state_election).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745205507.549928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745205507.549928, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.755433053777208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.342475568522787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6676439331812365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6388838793324265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.6403200895653883, 0.536439372974189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6327337291313246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.43563441074387765, 0.5421153138351086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.373802847861484, "peer_score": 11.343571867457202, "coverage": 0.9679891538951132, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9679891538951132, "spot_peer_score": 8.361754686877386, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "baseline_archived_score": 59.373802847861484, "peer_archived_score": 11.343571867457202, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.361754686877386, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "See for example election polls at [Vienna: Poll by IFDD from 24.03.2025](https://politpro.eu/en/austria/polls/63413/ifdd/2025-03-24)" } ] }{ "count": 5894, "next": "