Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=700
{ "count": 6283, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=680", "results": [ { "id": 38917, "title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "short_title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "url_title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "slug": "will-barack-obama-be-arrested-before-july-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T18:31:39.307405Z", "published_at": "2025-07-23T22:07:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:23:45.210472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-23T22:07:56.123412Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-23T22:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38265, "title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T18:31:39.307854Z", "open_time": "2025-07-23T22:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-24T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-24T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 20, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114887992924632896) on Truth Social an AI-generated video showing Barack Obama being arrested. Two days later, Trump [accused](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/22/politics/trump-obama-treason-accusation-analysis) Obama of treason, a crime punishable in the United States by death, saying from the Oval Office:\n\n> Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with them, and so was sleepy Joe Biden. And so were the rest of them. Comey, Clapper, the whole group, and they tried to rig an election and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020.\n\nAccording to [the USAToday](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-arrest-obama-video-epstein-treason-tulsi-gabbard/85320358007/): \n\n> Trump's comments follow Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's claim she has evidence of a \"treasonous conspiracy\" related to the intelligence about Russian interference in the 2016 election.\n\n> The focus on Obama comes as the Trump administration continues to receive backlash from some Republicans over the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein's criminal files. Putting attention on the 2016 election and investigations into Russia's interference could be part of a broader effort to distract from the Epstein fallout, according to [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/21/trump-epstein-distractions/) and [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-forever-grudge-obama-hillary-clinton).\n\n> \"Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response,\" Patrick Rodenbush, a spokesperson for Obama, said in an emailed statement. \"But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction.\"\n\nHistorically, President Ulysses S. Grant was [reportedly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrests_of_Ulysses_S._Grant#Alleged_1872_arrest) arrested in 1872 for speeding on a horse, and Trump himself [was released](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-formally-arrested-on-election-racketeering-conspiracy-charges-4327600) from detention on a \\$200,000 bond in the state of Georgia after having his mugshot taken. \n\nSee Also:\n\n* Office of the Director of National Intelligence: [New Evidence of Obama Administration Conspiracy to Subvert President Trump’s 2016 Victory and Presidency](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2025/4086-pr-15-25)\n* Time Magazine: [Obama Hits Back at Trump’s Treason Accusation: ‘Weak Attempt at Distraction’](https://time.com/7304820/trump-treason-obama-response-distraction-epstein-guilty-president-prosecution/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if former US President Barack Obama is arrested before July 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as **Yes**. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \n\n> An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.", "post_id": 38917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363414.690802, "end_time": 1762415825.696, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363414.690802, "end_time": 1762415825.696, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.014180468307353328 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.085601527082893, 2.875145027359488, 0.04008224875913337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.115269369020162, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 20, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114887992924632896) on Truth Social an AI-generated video showing Barack Obama being arrested. Two days later, Trump [accused](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/22/politics/trump-obama-treason-accusation-analysis) Obama of treason, a crime punishable in the United States by death, saying from the Oval Office:\n\n> Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with them, and so was sleepy Joe Biden. And so were the rest of them. Comey, Clapper, the whole group, and they tried to rig an election and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020.\n\nAccording to [the USAToday](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-arrest-obama-video-epstein-treason-tulsi-gabbard/85320358007/): \n\n> Trump's comments follow Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's claim she has evidence of a \"treasonous conspiracy\" related to the intelligence about Russian interference in the 2016 election.\n\n> The focus on Obama comes as the Trump administration continues to receive backlash from some Republicans over the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein's criminal files. Putting attention on the 2016 election and investigations into Russia's interference could be part of a broader effort to distract from the Epstein fallout, according to [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/21/trump-epstein-distractions/) and [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-forever-grudge-obama-hillary-clinton).\n\n> \"Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response,\" Patrick Rodenbush, a spokesperson for Obama, said in an emailed statement. \"But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction.\"\n\nHistorically, President Ulysses S. Grant was [reportedly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrests_of_Ulysses_S._Grant#Alleged_1872_arrest) arrested in 1872 for speeding on a horse, and Trump himself [was released](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-formally-arrested-on-election-racketeering-conspiracy-charges-4327600) from detention on a \\$200,000 bond in the state of Georgia after having his mugshot taken. \n\nSee Also:\n\n* Office of the Director of National Intelligence: [New Evidence of Obama Administration Conspiracy to Subvert President Trump’s 2016 Victory and Presidency](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2025/4086-pr-15-25)\n* Time Magazine: [Obama Hits Back at Trump’s Treason Accusation: ‘Weak Attempt at Distraction’](https://time.com/7304820/trump-treason-obama-response-distraction-epstein-guilty-president-prosecution/)" }, { "id": 38916, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?", "slug": "will-maxwell-testify-on-the-epstein-files-or-trumpin-congress-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T16:05:03.629097Z", "published_at": "2025-07-24T10:50:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:23:41.128681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-24T10:51:27.311370Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38264, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T16:05:03.629618Z", "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025: \n\n> The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday.\n\n> Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n\n> “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n\nMaxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n\nPresident Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n\nAlan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n\n> She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ghislaine Maxwell has testified under oath at a hearing, in person or remotely, in either the US House of Representatives or US Senate regarding either what is popularly known as the Epstein Files (defined in the Fine Print) or Donald Trump’s association with Epstein.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if this does not occur before that date. It may also resolve as **No** in the event of Maxwell being permanently unable to testify, such as her death.", "fine_print": "* The Epstein Files [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list) any of the evidence of criminal cases on the part of Jeffrey Epstein or any of his clients or associates, including but not limited to his contacts list or his flight logs.\n* Any questioning regarding Donald Trump’s association with Epstein, including Maxwell denying or failing to recall any such association will count.\n* In order to count, a hearing must include oral questioning by House members or Senators. Any hearing qualifies, including public, closed, or even secret hearings, as long as credible sources report before January 1, 2026 that Maxwell testified under oath regarding the Epstein Files or Trump's association with Epstein.\n* Depositions do not count. Maxwell must appear at a hearing for this question to resolve as Yes.\n* Maxwell invoking her Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, even if invoked on every question, will not affect resolution. ", "post_id": 38916, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363410.532616, "end_time": 1762742247.034, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363410.532616, "end_time": 1762742247.034, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020271525899167454 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6755225724572345, 2.615847700597533, 0.8242170599798391, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025: \n\n> The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday.\n\n> Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n\n> “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n\nMaxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n\nPresident Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n\nAlan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n\n> She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything." }, { "id": 38913, "title": "Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-ishiba-stop-being-pm-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T08:08:39.883955Z", "published_at": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.010517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-01T17:55:15.922805Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38247, "title": "Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T08:08:39.884650Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:47.305143Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Shigeru Ishiba ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 1, 2025 for any reason.", "fine_print": "If Ishiba officially announces that he will resign, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if the effective date is after August 2025 or depends on a specific event taking place, such as a leadership race.", "post_id": 38913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756674944.842834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756674944.842834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.009113774939706923 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.057933159934286, 4.5896970236788315, 1.3248843883700152, 0.022614253091566634, 0.013492534825694926, 0.07250522803542965, 0.08065511484958626, 0.016699727217022405, 0.005819522702150025, 0.0, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0183232893108838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005078988548449663, 0.004280041816184154, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044145643229832644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339641220092398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.70690617877098, "peer_score": 33.22392847641595, "coverage": 0.9999549625152441, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999549625152441, "spot_peer_score": 40.51234548810212, "spot_baseline_score": 23.878685958711674, "baseline_archived_score": 79.70690617877098, "peer_archived_score": 33.22392847641595, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.51234548810212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.878685958711674 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 549, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations." }, { "id": 38908, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will Trump complete his term of office?", "url_title": "Will Trump complete his term of office?", "slug": "will-trump-complete-his-term-of-office", "author_id": 276144, "author_username": "Entropy77", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-22T17:40:58.717030Z", "published_at": "2025-08-03T00:54:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:01:49.104888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-03T00:55:35.973025Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-04T00:54:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38244, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-22T17:40:58.717478Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T00:54:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-08T00:54:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-08T00:54:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the beginning of a second, non-consecutive term. According to the 20th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, his term is scheduled to end at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2029.\n\nDuring his first term, Trump was impeached twice but not removed from office. Public discussion continues about the likelihood that legal, political, or health-related issues could affect his ability to complete his second term.\n\nThis question asks whether Trump will leave office and someone else will become President of the United States for any reason **prior to the scheduled end of Trump's term on January 20, 2029**.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald J. Trump ceases to hold the office of President of the United States **prior to noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029**, through any means **that result in a permanent transfer of presidential power** to another individual.\n\nIf Trump retains the presidency through noon ET on January 20, 2029, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Temporary transfers of presidential authority under **Section 3 or 4 of the 25th Amendment** (e.g., during medical procedures or short-term incapacitation) **will not count** for resolution as \"Yes\" unless they become permanent.", "post_id": 38908, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762284601.965, "end_time": 1763364038.713, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762284601.965, "end_time": 1763364038.713, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.30857156833435856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1817644870602914, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6055872041882305, 1.0051363096347963, 0.20438262212973363, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.46426213899623064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2756491502267042, 0.0, 0.6094796083020548, 0.35109847196302063, 0.45689698273173773, 0.19333358002911022, 0.0, 1.0013764220007308, 1.21134819307803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7123348153170386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44575833950054045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8693280352332947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3447738187267442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.0, 0.07672748985828792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8123745749034386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11185468772524002 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the beginning of a second, non-consecutive term. According to the 20th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, his term is scheduled to end at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2029.\n\nDuring his first term, Trump was impeached twice but not removed from office. Public discussion continues about the likelihood that legal, political, or health-related issues could affect his ability to complete his second term.\n\nThis question asks whether Trump will leave office and someone else will become President of the United States for any reason **prior to the scheduled end of Trump's term on January 20, 2029**." }, { "id": 38898, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Musk or Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will Musk or Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "slug": "will-musk-or-trump-publically-disparage-each-other-before-september-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-18T17:01:53.476907Z", "published_at": "2025-07-21T12:29:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.179654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-21T12:30:01.320908Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38221, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-18T17:01:53.477363Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T14:04:11.883791Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk [stated publicly](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) that Donald Trump had ties to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in what was a spectacular end to the relationship between the worlds richest man and the incumbent 47th US President.\n\nBoth Musk and Trump had previously enjoyed what seemed to be a close and highly publicised friendship. Musk had been given special government employee status by Trump and was the de facto head of the so-called Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) — the Trump administration's government cost-cutting initiative. However, prior to June 5, the special government employee status of Musk expired, leaving his position within the Trump administration uncertain. At this time, Trump had also been pushing his so-called Big Beautiful Bill which contained many provisions which would increase the US government deficit and end electric vehicle tax breaks.\n\nMusk [apologised](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/11/elon-musk-trump-regret-posts) to Trump publicly, but both men have yet to reconcile.\n\n###### Table. List of notable events leading in the Elon Musk-Donald Trump feud\n\n| Date / Event | Event Summary | Link / Source |\n| ------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: |\n| June 3. Elon Musk post on X. | \"I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump remarks at press conference. | “Elon and I had a great relationship. I don’t know if we will anymore,” | [Link](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-president-administration-news-06-05-25#cmbjkbhvx00053b6s86gyygp9) |\n| June 5. Elon Musk post on X. | \"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump post on Truth Social. | Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY! | [Source](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1930696266993832006) |\n| June 6. Elon Musk now deleted post on X. | \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files, That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT\" | [Source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/05/trump-elon-musk-fallout) |\n| June 11. Elon Musk post on X apologising. | \"I regret some of my posts about President [@realDonaldTrump](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump) last week. They went too far.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932695486684950962) |\n| | | |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that either Donald Trump has publicly criticised Elon Musk or Elon Musk has publicly criticised Donald Trump. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with the other person.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus will consult media characterizations of Trump's or Musk's comments to aid in determining if criticism has occurred. Metaculus will assess multiple sources of various political leanings to aid in limiting bias in assessing whether the question has resolved.\n* A criticism must be public to count, indirect reports, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n* If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three Admins will vote on how the question should resolve.\n* The criticism doesn't need to mention the other person by name, if it is clear that they are referenced in the statement. For example, Musk saying \"Everyone who works in the White House right now is incompetent.\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Criticism must be of the other man's character, not mere disagreement with a policy, even if the policy itself is criticized. For example, Musk calling the One Big Beautiful Bill Act a \"disgusting abomination\" on June 3, 2025, would not count, since the criticism is not of Trump but of his policy.", "post_id": 38898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755259033.279246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.142 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755259033.279246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.142 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24396453616344282 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04163822466624065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1297911561650962, 0.0, 0.8615610800465918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035201554049220755, 0.0, 2.0287331295918793, 0.9157592757067999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.881252248598777, 0.4976419799216756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039933435337878, 0.3307535733100695, 3.4442750403670246, 0.5104037381549636, 0.8099105034576107, 0.6527822562352956, 0.4486325245057087, 1.240654267534816, 0.35673665699761764, 0.0, 0.6949230758947678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43523845061139377, 0.0, 1.2422686336094242, 0.0037288215013679916, 0.04811195816242564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0275524712565069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025898963863878792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08627334283842372, 0.0, 0.05190119490203952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023267187987808503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02752614763749901, 0.02134152870342287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005338748039204726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016134421732207857, 0.009419608219617398, 0.0, 0.005257436367961542, 0.0, 0.0018827190265937534, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04350827787223317, 0.0, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0032840439631166654, 0.0025134178191185503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9297170691124111 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -17.32446707618895, "peer_score": 52.79805219590244, "coverage": 0.9984530631259272, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9984530631259272, "spot_peer_score": 38.951654424149986, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -17.32446707618895, "peer_archived_score": 52.79805219590244, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.951654424149986, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 563, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk [stated publicly](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) that Donald Trump had ties to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in what was a spectacular end to the relationship between the worlds richest man and the incumbent 47th US President.\n\nBoth Musk and Trump had previously enjoyed what seemed to be a close and highly publicised friendship. Musk had been given special government employee status by Trump and was the de facto head of the so-called Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) — the Trump administration's government cost-cutting initiative. However, prior to June 5, the special government employee status of Musk expired, leaving his position within the Trump administration uncertain. At this time, Trump had also been pushing his so-called Big Beautiful Bill which contained many provisions which would increase the US government deficit and end electric vehicle tax breaks.\n\nMusk [apologised](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/11/elon-musk-trump-regret-posts) to Trump publicly, but both men have yet to reconcile.\n\n###### Table. List of notable events leading in the Elon Musk-Donald Trump feud\n\n| Date / Event | Event Summary | Link / Source |\n| ------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: |\n| June 3. Elon Musk post on X. | \"I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump remarks at press conference. | “Elon and I had a great relationship. I don’t know if we will anymore,” | [Link](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-president-administration-news-06-05-25#cmbjkbhvx00053b6s86gyygp9) |\n| June 5. Elon Musk post on X. | \"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump post on Truth Social. | Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY! | [Source](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1930696266993832006) |\n| June 6. Elon Musk now deleted post on X. | \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files, That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT\" | [Source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/05/trump-elon-musk-fallout) |\n| June 11. Elon Musk post on X apologising. | \"I regret some of my posts about President [@realDonaldTrump](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump) last week. They went too far.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932695486684950962) |\n| | | |" }, { "id": 38896, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "short_title": "Taiwan nuclear referendum passes?", "url_title": "Taiwan nuclear referendum passes?", "slug": "taiwan-nuclear-referendum-passes", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-18T14:48:56.979899Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T00:04:54.102990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-25T16:49:58.776354Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T11:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38219, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "created_at": "2025-07-18T14:48:56.980342Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T11:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-24T11:08:00.279832Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the referendum scheduled for August 23, 2025 to reactivate the Maanshan/Third Nuclear Power Plant passes.", "fine_print": "If the nuclear power plant referendum is postponed to after September 1, 2025, or if the results are not available before September 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the [Central Election Commission](https://web.cec.gov.tw/english).", "post_id": 38896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755859179.292201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755859179.292201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6588420573232173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08532897360695803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017045521296473166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004983840471032407, 0.0, 0.023560770382044207, 0.4219544127463164, 0.0, 0.12606003591503093, 0.48401409928095007, 0.7886916210366777, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5167354654575016, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.888825836472129, 0.0, 0.2042328848453002, 1.0, 0.2006545398315125, 0.0, 1.453720711394888, 3.3824609289976397, 0.6042992453618161, 0.026120776162701476, 0.32374300958340624, 0.0, 0.4581561860219403, 0.126914121100483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4271577012363902, 0.08858351978830711, 0.04657095710352773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8374418253394589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07222825528385914, 0.01814995217282128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3035607380831548 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -59.184089961312914, "peer_score": 29.458215499212386, "coverage": 0.9999135656382416, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999135656382416, "spot_peer_score": 6.521174230254017, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -59.184089961312914, "peer_archived_score": 29.458215499212386, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.521174230254017, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 461, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters." }, { "id": 38893, "title": "Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?", "short_title": "Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?", "slug": "kim-keon-hee-charged-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-17T04:14:56.575122Z", "published_at": "2025-07-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.636044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup 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"2025-07-17T04:14:56.575574Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-29T08:47:55.832983Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n\nAfter the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n\n[Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kim Keon Hee is charged with a criminal offense by South Korean authorities before September 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38893, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756438280.971255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756438280.971255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8709649001203646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11198246353073231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05265403039884038, 0.0, 0.001790116379774893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042606242280195635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06773163967248513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015092985777688732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007851968116423552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006517222435612316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18795738563747055, 0.10083964581808723, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0036512462649140286, 0.009543845697788052, 0.4903152932992509, 0.03810867269580147, 0.01511014823377393, 0.027908835249252868, 0.0, 0.1265952290903183, 0.45894486563999604, 0.016830734531265112, 0.008438384594982272, 0.0, 0.1952379986272593, 1.5997950860791126, 0.13633578835620466, 0.2401491334992293, 0.8835986322654197, 0.7147134567377993, 1.162028629319614, 0.010755654095857752, 1.9783848593739022, 0.06235169715667622, 0.20198795668274172, 0.8556563646112201, 0.70552391225079, 0.022937907506089057, 0.012081674919003055, 0.0, 0.3810919053759498, 0.0, 0.8414412190720929, 0.9444368072528766, 3.3580703692769083 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.1151700321756732, "peer_score": 29.229786527510967, "coverage": 0.9313003759936693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998938328412923, "spot_peer_score": 1.8229330178289147, "spot_baseline_score": -64.38561897747248, "baseline_archived_score": 2.1151700321756732, "peer_archived_score": 29.229786527510967, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8229330178289147, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -64.38561897747248 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 726, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n\nAfter the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n\n[Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning." }, { "id": 38892, "title": "Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?", "short_title": "MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?", "slug": "metop-sg-orbit-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-17T02:58:33.857344Z", "published_at": "2025-07-18T17:15:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.448306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-18T17:15:48.883701Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38215, "title": "Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-17T02:58:33.857771Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-13T16:59:01.266899Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n\nThe first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, MetOp-SG-A1 enters orbit around Earth.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a satellite is considered to be in orbit if it maintains a trajectory that continuously circles Earth for at least one day.\n\nIf MetOp-SG-A1 is destroyed this question will immediately resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 38892, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755052454.043432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755052454.043432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8796428865132436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5376037185099556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018175126021569836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01618032019129673, 0.02531939678828675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014357330374357432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 0.7722982218467274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669981048994339, 0.04618511849820684, 0.10185908988886204, 0.006109129308433916, 0.047477561068025524, 0.08624868390658809, 0.2937072262777226, 0.4593896778152357, 0.31490076724293836, 0.6569251315574702, 0.7722969853915468, 0.8073462337084368, 3.4210895005108926, 1.2132816756563873, 1.4301914020955024, 0.17669137990545516, 0.13148107102613052, 0.677073393566452, 1.1198394597949586, 0.06655370815568037, 0.0, 1.9484345516073827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.59134836041889, "peer_score": 11.422315758083679, "coverage": 0.7665907317105106, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998082020824759, "spot_peer_score": 21.46438378484213, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.59134836041889, "peer_archived_score": 11.422315758083679, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.46438378484213, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 390, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n\nThe first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years." }, { "id": 38890, "title": "Will the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization have any new members before 2035?", "short_title": "Will the WTO Appellate Body have any new members before 2035?", "url_title": "Will the WTO Appellate Body have any new members before 2035?", "slug": "will-the-wto-appellate-body-have-any-new-members-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-16T13:59:56.280737Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T11:53:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:25:39.214503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T11:54:37.212406Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:53:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38205, "title": "Will the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization have any new members before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-07-16T13:59:56.281164Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:53:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T11:53:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T11:53:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [WTO Appellate Body](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body) was the final arbiter of international trade disputes, functioning as the \"supreme court\" of global trade from 1995-2019. When countries disagreed with initial WTO panel rulings, they could appeal to this 7-member body of trade law experts. The Appellate Body made WTO dispute resolution binding rather than merely advisory. Countries generally complied with its rulings, making it arguably [the most effective international court ever created](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wto-judicial-appointments-bad-omen-trading-system).\n\nStarting under Obama and significantly extended under Trump, the U.S. systematically killed it by blocking new member appointments. American complaints included the AB exceeding its mandate by creating precedent-like interpretations, taking too long to issue rulings, and making decisions favoring other countries over U.S. interests. By December 2019, the AB had lost quorum when only 1 member remained. It's been non-functional since, despite Biden administration [claims about wanting to restore it](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/tai-targets-china-climate-in-call-to-reform-wto-00117491).\n\nIn 2020, the EU and 15 other WTO members signed the temporary [Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body#Multiparty_Interim_Appeal_Arbitration) as a workaround, but this covers only participating countries and lacks the AB's universal authority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2035, a member of the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization officially takes office.\n\nIf this does not happen or if the Appellate Body is formally disbanded, this question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38890, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757337928.219318, "end_time": 1787175845.041, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757337928.219318, "end_time": 1787175845.041, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7444128696276813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [WTO Appellate Body](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body) was the final arbiter of international trade disputes, functioning as the \"supreme court\" of global trade from 1995-2019. When countries disagreed with initial WTO panel rulings, they could appeal to this 7-member body of trade law experts. The Appellate Body made WTO dispute resolution binding rather than merely advisory. Countries generally complied with its rulings, making it arguably [the most effective international court ever created](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wto-judicial-appointments-bad-omen-trading-system).\n\nStarting under Obama and significantly extended under Trump, the U.S. systematically killed it by blocking new member appointments. American complaints included the AB exceeding its mandate by creating precedent-like interpretations, taking too long to issue rulings, and making decisions favoring other countries over U.S. interests. By December 2019, the AB had lost quorum when only 1 member remained. It's been non-functional since, despite Biden administration [claims about wanting to restore it](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/tai-targets-china-climate-in-call-to-reform-wto-00117491).\n\nIn 2020, the EU and 15 other WTO members signed the temporary [Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body#Multiparty_Interim_Appeal_Arbitration) as a workaround, but this covers only participating countries and lacks the AB's universal authority." }, { "id": 38886, "title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "short_title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "url_title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "slug": "will-the-next-ceo-of-xtwitter-last-until-2027", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-15T23:00:59.257208Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T01:10:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:26.248633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T01:11:03.863919Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38201, "title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "created_at": "2025-07-15T23:00:59.257629Z", "open_time": "2025-07-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-16T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-16T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n\nAccording to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n\n> She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n\n> Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n\nOn July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "* If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n* If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n* If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 38886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363635.931306, "end_time": 1763367120.858, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363635.931306, "end_time": 1763367120.858, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5680308292298522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5690853109856584, 0.0, 0.7277314008339322, 0.0, 1.132937422718167, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0921575072300405, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n\nAccording to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n\n> She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n\n> Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n\nOn July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html)." }, { "id": 38884, "title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "short_title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "url_title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "slug": "will-resident-doctors-in-england-receive-a-further-pay-increase-before-2026", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-15T10:27:26.790953Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T13:53:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T11:29:15.117076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T13:53:53.143516Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:53:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38199, "title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-15T10:27:26.791358Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:53:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T13:53:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T13:53:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Resident (previously junior) doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association (BMA), [have announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp820586x9do) a five-day strike beginning 25 July 2025, amid a long-running dispute over real-terms pay cuts since 2008.\n\nHealth Secretary Wes Streeting, has so far resisted the BMA’s demand for full pay restoration. However, [past strikes in 2022-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932024_National_Health_Service_strikes) led to an improved offer after prolonged industrial action.\n\nRead also: [Why are resident doctors striking and what are they paid?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qyl4ljjko)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) enacts a pay offer for resident doctors in England, which both:\n\n* Exceeds the 5.4% average uplift already confirmed for the 2025–26 financial year, AND\n* Is accepted by the BMA or enacted regardless, through unilateral government decision or pay review body recommendation.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** only if the offer is enacted. If it is announced, but not enacted before 2026 (e.g., because it is under negotiation or because of bureaucratic delays), this question will resolve as **No**.\n* Only base pay uplifts for resident doctors in England count. \n* Non-pay elements (e.g. working conditions, pensions, bonuses) will be ignored.\n* Partial or targeted uplifts (e.g., to certain training grades only) will count if they represent a higher average increase than the scheduled 5.4%.", "post_id": 38884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762082944.449451, "end_time": 1762687746.849, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.136 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762082944.449451, "end_time": 1762687746.849, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09345161040044846 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 141, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resident (previously junior) doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association (BMA), [have announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp820586x9do) a five-day strike beginning 25 July 2025, amid a long-running dispute over real-terms pay cuts since 2008.\n\nHealth Secretary Wes Streeting, has so far resisted the BMA’s demand for full pay restoration. However, [past strikes in 2022-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932024_National_Health_Service_strikes) led to an improved offer after prolonged industrial action.\n\nRead also: [Why are resident doctors striking and what are they paid?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qyl4ljjko)" }, { "id": 38877, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "short_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "url_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "slug": "dpa-re-authorization-before-oct-25", "author_id": 131377, "author_username": "nmzd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-13T14:48:33.722593Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T12:14:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T14:02:43.765740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T12:14:43.305073Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T12:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T12:14:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38194, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-13T14:48:33.723033Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T12:14:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T12:14:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T12:14:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T12:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T14:02:43.724164Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before October 1, 2025 (EDT), the President of the United States signs a public law that extends any of the statutory authorities created by the original Defense Production Act of 1950 (Pub. L. 81-774, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 4501 et seq.) past their current sunset of 30 September 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758831811.701137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758831811.701137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.9212248004659619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.3460657558425577, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6928808849301284 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -135.23200205835332, "peer_score": 41.2515866280292, "coverage": 0.9964461305467984, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964461305467984, "spot_peer_score": 9.315798835099425, "spot_baseline_score": -81.09661756099831, "baseline_archived_score": -135.23200205835332, "peer_archived_score": 41.2515866280292, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.315798835099425, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -81.09661756099831 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025." }, { "id": 38873, "title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "short_title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "url_title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "slug": "will-a-company-with-1-employee-achieve-a-1-billion-valuation-before-2030", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T13:45:09.983256Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:06:41.012574Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:10Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:26:45.954844Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38190, "title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-11T13:45:09.983670Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n\nIn a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n\nAccording to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a company with only one employee has achieved a valuation of at least \\$1 billion, while earning at least \\$10 million in annual revenue from the sale of goods or services in the year it reached the threshold. The valuation will be calculated based on the latest completed funding round if the company is private or based on its market cap if it is public.\n\nThe company must have 1 employee during the valuation, a company that reaches the \\$1 billion dollar threshold and then sizes down to 1 employee will not resolve this question until a new valuation becomes available.", "fine_print": "The primary resolution source for this question will be the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), but other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might also be used to resolve it.\n\nThe company may not be:\n\n* a SPAC or other blank-check company\n* a royalty trust, master limited partnership, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), a [closed-end fund](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closed-endinvestment.asp), exchange-traded fund (ETF), or similar pass-through\n* a shell or special-purpose holding company with no commercial operations\n* an entity whose management services are provided by an external advisor", "post_id": 38873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762172136.189, "end_time": 1762809967.528, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762172136.189, "end_time": 1762809967.528, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.19687070675304078 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n\nIn a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n\nAccording to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million." }, { "id": 38868, "title": "Will the federal US government provide any financial incentives specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before 2030?", "short_title": "Any US gov financial incentives for company AI adoption before 2030?", "url_title": "Any US gov financial incentives for company AI adoption before 2030?", "slug": "any-us-gov-financial-incentives-for-company-ai-adoption-before-2030", "author_id": 272894, "author_username": "mghodak", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T11:06:22.046640Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.643819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:33:14Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:26:45.954844Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38185, "title": "Will the federal US government provide any financial incentives specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-11T11:06:22.046997Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:32:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:32:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early 2025, Donald Trump [signed an Executive Order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/) to \"enhance America’s AI leadership\". While the federal government has been actively investing in AI capabilities for its own operations and has facilitated [private sector partnerships](https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54731/2025-01-24-president-trump-starts-first-week-ai-executive-orders), no incentives specifically targeted at increasing private company AI adoption exist as of mid-2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the federal US government starts providing any financial incentives (e.g., tax credits, direct funding) specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before January 1, 2029.\n\nFor the incentives to count, at least a part of them has to be about AI specifically. General technological progress incentives will not count. They also have to be about the use of AI in private companies, as opposed to AI innovation specifically. I.e., they should be available for companies that do not necessarily build their models in-house.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755395497.992701, "end_time": 1769490738.016, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755395497.992701, "end_time": 1769490738.016, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15550000000000003, 0.8445 ], "means": [ 0.8445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early 2025, Donald Trump [signed an Executive Order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/) to \"enhance America’s AI leadership\". While the federal government has been actively investing in AI capabilities for its own operations and has facilitated [private sector partnerships](https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54731/2025-01-24-president-trump-starts-first-week-ai-executive-orders), no incentives specifically targeted at increasing private company AI adoption exist as of mid-2025." }, { "id": 38867, "title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "slug": "will-openai-surpass-15-million-business-users-before-2030", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T10:26:07.866232Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:11:31.800581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:33:09Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", 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with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:26:45.954844Z", "score_type": null, 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n\nBusiness subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI has reached at least 15 million business users. If no such reports are published, this question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761304281.213141, "end_time": 1763688065.15, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761304281.213141, "end_time": 1763688065.15, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9260739922861693 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n\nBusiness subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html)." }, { "id": 38852, "title": "Will global corporate spending on adoption of AI applications, infrastructure, and services reach or exceed $700 billion USD during 2029?", "short_title": "Will global corp spending on AI be ≥$700B during the calendar year 2029?", "url_title": "Will global corp spending on AI be ≥$700B during the calendar year 2029?", "slug": "will-global-corp-spending-on-ai-be-700b-during-the-calendar-year-2029", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T22:22:13.586405Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:29:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T08:55:11.550070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:26:45.954844Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38173, "title": "Will global corporate spending on adoption of AI applications, infrastructure, and services reach or exceed $700 billion USD during 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T22:22:13.586840Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:29:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:29:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a 2024 [press release](https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724) by IDC:\n\n> Worldwide spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications\\*, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, will more than double by 2028 when it is expected to reach \\$632 billion, according to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation ([IDC](https://www.idc.com/)) [Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P33198). The rapid incorporation of AI, and generative AI (GenAI) in particular, into a wide range of products will result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0% over the 2024-2028 forecast period.\n\n...\n\n> While GenAI has captured the world's attention over the past 18 months, spending on GenAI solutions will be less than the combined total of all other AI applications, such as machine learning, deep learning, and automatic speech recognition & natural language processing. However, the rapid growth in GenAI investments will enable the category to outpace the overall AI market with a five-year CAGR of 59.2%. By the end of the forecast, IDC expects GenAI spending to reach \\$202 billion, representing 32% of overall AI spending.\n>  \n> Software will be the largest category of technology spending, representing more than half the overall AI market for most of the forecast. Two thirds of all software spending will go to AI-enabled Applications and Artificial Intelligence Platforms while the remainder will go toward AI Application Development & Deployment and AI System Infrastructure Software. Spending on AI hardware, including servers, storage, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), will be the next largest category of technology spending. IT and business services will see a slightly faster growth rate than hardware with a CAGR of 24.3%. In comparison, AI software will see a five-year CAGR of 33.9%.\n>  \n> The industry that is expected to spend the most on AI solutions over the 2024-2028 forecast period is financial services. With banking leading the way, the financial services industry will account for more than 20% of all AI spending. The next largest industries for AI spending are software and information services and retail. Combined, these three industries will provide roughly 45% of all AI spending over the next five years. The industries that will see the fastest AI spending growth are Business and Personal Services (32.8% CAGR) and Transportation and Leisure (31.7% CAGR). In addition, 17 of the 27 industries included in the Spending Guide are forecast to have five-year CAGRs greater than 30%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to information presented by the International Data Corporation (IDC), global corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, is equal to or higher than \\$700 billion for calendar year 2029. \n\nThe information is expected to be presented in a press release at IDC's [media center](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/?origin=old-pr\\®ions=\\&languages=eng). ", "fine_print": "The question resolves based on nominal dollars reported by IDC and will not be adjusted for inflation. \n\nResolution will be based on the first numbers reported after 2029, encompassing the entire year 2029. Any subsequent revisions will not cause the question to be re-resolved. \n\nIn the event IDC does not report the data for 2029, Metaculus may use another [credible resolution source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) including, if necessary, consultation with industry experts as judged by Metaculus.", "post_id": 38852, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762160101.25295, "end_time": 1764109486.126, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762160101.25295, "end_time": 1764109486.126, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9240546850827063 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5430938723889258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3260377271545067, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 3.4329306585725297 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a 2024 [press release](https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724) by IDC:\n\n> Worldwide spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications\\*, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, will more than double by 2028 when it is expected to reach \\$632 billion, according to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation ([IDC](https://www.idc.com/)) [Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P33198). The rapid incorporation of AI, and generative AI (GenAI) in particular, into a wide range of products will result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0% over the 2024-2028 forecast period.\n\n...\n\n> While GenAI has captured the world's attention over the past 18 months, spending on GenAI solutions will be less than the combined total of all other AI applications, such as machine learning, deep learning, and automatic speech recognition & natural language processing. However, the rapid growth in GenAI investments will enable the category to outpace the overall AI market with a five-year CAGR of 59.2%. By the end of the forecast, IDC expects GenAI spending to reach \\$202 billion, representing 32% of overall AI spending.\n>  \n> Software will be the largest category of technology spending, representing more than half the overall AI market for most of the forecast. Two thirds of all software spending will go to AI-enabled Applications and Artificial Intelligence Platforms while the remainder will go toward AI Application Development & Deployment and AI System Infrastructure Software. Spending on AI hardware, including servers, storage, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), will be the next largest category of technology spending. IT and business services will see a slightly faster growth rate than hardware with a CAGR of 24.3%. In comparison, AI software will see a five-year CAGR of 33.9%.\n>  \n> The industry that is expected to spend the most on AI solutions over the 2024-2028 forecast period is financial services. With banking leading the way, the financial services industry will account for more than 20% of all AI spending. The next largest industries for AI spending are software and information services and retail. Combined, these three industries will provide roughly 45% of all AI spending over the next five years. The industries that will see the fastest AI spending growth are Business and Personal Services (32.8% CAGR) and Transportation and Leisure (31.7% CAGR). In addition, 17 of the 27 industries included in the Spending Guide are forecast to have five-year CAGRs greater than 30%." }, { "id": 38850, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.465881Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T22:42:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.702300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T22:43:12.535600Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38163, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.466319Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T13:47:20.157110Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38850, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756674401.17446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756674401.17446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011545200737134179 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.829536712466327, 2.704097614830645, 0.6273196448727308, 0.42932357931188714, 0.02000227009300229, 0.45907457354056824, 0.0, 0.13660628237113986, 0.2820727210235253, 0.027260261306647233, 0.02464094517995897, 0.01134226073249967, 0.07090668543369427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020546227448586998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036486146261818564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 54.311048066096625, "peer_score": 18.550120969558556, "coverage": 0.9999675385255558, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999675385255558, "spot_peer_score": -3.7802058709240294, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 54.311048066096625, "peer_archived_score": 18.550120969558556, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.7802058709240294, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 759, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation." }, { "id": 38848, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thailand-military-coup-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.537772Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.981694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:50Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38162, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.538216Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:36.009618Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, the Royal Thai Armed Forces declare *all* of the following:\n\n* Martial law is in effect.\n* Parliament is suspended, dissolved or otherwise lacks authority.\n* The constitution is suspended, abrogated or is otherwise not in effect.", "fine_print": "To qualify for the criteria, the constitution does not have to fully suspended, partial suspension, such as the exclusion of certain sections will be sufficient.", "post_id": 38848, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756424181.62677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756424181.62677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01835389170987432 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.439048744272744, 5.095756512536442, 1.7049344405035574, 1.3909139110018016, 1.152732420000687, 0.0048790574785938816, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.012350188112547004, 0.0, 0.00041057211391749783, 0.008684416333133068, 0.0034311721361839085, 0.008246561353721116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06093430446591882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022855231852052916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03101129919345409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1762765477969897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006435767757889865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003033740382392937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.91116412186761, "peer_score": 16.296728779617514, "coverage": 0.9999355619485345, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999355619485345, "spot_peer_score": 7.1618797585451786, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 91.91116412186761, "peer_archived_score": 16.296728779617514, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.1618797585451786, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 692, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in." }, { "id": 38836, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "short_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "url_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "slug": "rachel-reeves-remains-uk-chancellor-until-dec-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211067Z", "published_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:18:03.967308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:24.849714Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:27:29.007040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38151, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211487Z", "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-15T01:32:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-15T01:32:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rachel Reeves continuously remains Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom until November 30, 2025, 23:59 GMT, according to the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer). Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer) website is unavailable or inaccurate, Metaculus may use [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/) to resolve this question.", "post_id": 38836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363073.34684, "end_time": 1762474162.591, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363073.34684, "end_time": 1762474162.591, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.9351432451090349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7957884779629153, 0.62366871627356, 0.48167841893631047, 1.6878737286144148, 0.4203848492435676, 0.2939997479469227, 0.13230489461434952, 0.1932619357323092, 0.10687792566038573, 1.7897761188194323 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 271, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor." }, { "id": 38825, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "short_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "url_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "slug": "will-russia-attack-a-european-nato-member-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353420Z", "published_at": "2025-07-09T00:20:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:50:14.226825Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-09T00:21:00.775920Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-10T00:20:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38146, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353807Z", "open_time": "2025-07-10T00:20:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-14T00:20:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-14T00:20:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n\nFor this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n\n* The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n* A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n* A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n\nCyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n\nA country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nAs of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.", "post_id": 38825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761222277.41301, "end_time": 1782119246.083, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761222277.41301, "end_time": 1782119246.083, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.4263101593257434 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”" } ] }
