Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=720
{ "count": 5894, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=700", "results": [ { "id": 36943, "title": "Will one of the top 5 largest hedge funds in the U.S. experience a financial blow up in 2025?", "short_title": "Top 5 largest hedge funds in the U.S. experience a financial blow up in 2025?", "url_title": "Top 5 largest hedge funds in the U.S. experience a financial blow up in 2025?", "slug": "top-5-largest-hedge-funds-in-the-us-experience-a-financial-blow-up-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-15T21:01:43.939025Z", "published_at": "2025-04-15T21:09:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.097463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-15T21:10:03.927616Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-16T21:09:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36342, "title": "Will one of the top 5 largest hedge funds in the U.S. experience a financial blow up in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-15T21:01:43.939443Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T21:09:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-20T21:09:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-20T21:09:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The top five largest hedge funds in the United States, based on assets under management (AUM), are [<u>Citadel Investment Group</u>](https://www.citadel.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$397 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/citadel-advisors-llc)), [<u>Bridgewater Associates</u>](https://www.bridgewater.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$92 billion</u>](https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2025/04/1195812/bridgewater-assets-down-18pct-2024-amid-revamp#google_vignette)), [<u>Renaissance Technologies</u>](https://www.rentec.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$89 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/renaissance-technologies-llc)), [<u>AQR Capital Management</u>](https://www.aqr.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$133 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/aqr-capital-management-llc)), and [<u>Elliott Investment Management</u>](https://www.elliottmgmt.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$97 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/elliott-management-corp)). These firms employ diverse strategies, including quantitative trading, global macro, activist investing, and distressed securities, managing vast sums for institutional and high-net-worth clients. Despite their size and sophistication, hedge funds face risks such as market volatility, leverage, regulatory scrutiny, and operational failures. Historical examples like [<u>Long-Term Capital Management’s 1998 collapse</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp) highlight the potential for catastrophic losses, even among elite funds.\n\nIn 2025, this question is particularly impactful due to escalating global trade tensions and economic developments. The U.S. has implemented sweeping tariffs, including a [<u>145% levy on Chinese imports </u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-raises-tariffs-on-china-to-125-overview-and-trade-implications/)and 10-25% tariffs on other trading partners, prompting retaliatory measures from China (125% on U.S. goods), the EU, and others. These tariffs have triggered significant market volatility, with the [<u>S\\&P 500 dropping nearly 5% on April 2, 2025</u>](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/u-s-stocks-drop-after-hours-as-trump-imposes-sweeping-tariffs-sp-500-etf-falls-2-live-updates/6210156/), and U.S. Treasury yields spiking amid hedge fund liquidations of leveraged positions, such as the basis trade. Analysts project [<u>U.S. GDP growth could fall to 1.6% or lower, with inflation potentially hitting 4%</u>](https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/slowing-growth-higher-prices-a-deeper-dive-into-our-u-s-forecasts/), raising recession risks (40-50% probability per some forecasts). Such conditions strain hedge funds’ portfolios, especially those with heavy exposure to equities, derivatives, or international markets, increasing the likelihood of a \"blow up\" due to margin calls, investor redemptions, or strategy failures. This question probes whether one of these industry giants could falter under these unprecedented pressures in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "* The question will resolve as \"YES\" if any of the following U.S. hedge funds—Citadel Investment Group, Bridgewater Associates, Renaissance Technologies, AQR Capital Management, or Elliott Investment Management—experiences a financial blow up in 2025, defined as one of these events occurring before December 31, 2025: 1) *The hedge fund files for bankruptcy or becomes insolvent*, 2) *The hedge fund’s primary fund ceases operations or is forced to close due to financial distress*, 3) *The hedge fund loses 50% or more of its assets under management (AUM) due to investment losses, mismanagement, or regulatory penalties, as reported by credible sources such as regulatory filings, major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal), or industry reports*, 4) *The question will resolve as \"No\" if none of these funds meet the above criteria by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from authoritative sources. If AUM data or closure details are ambiguous or disputed, the resolution will rely on the consensus of at least two major financial news outlets or regulatory announcements.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36943, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755904582.471936, "end_time": 1760863843.473, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755904582.471936, "end_time": 1760863843.473, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0331896686735048 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The top five largest hedge funds in the United States, based on assets under management (AUM), are [<u>Citadel Investment Group</u>](https://www.citadel.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$397 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/citadel-advisors-llc)), [<u>Bridgewater Associates</u>](https://www.bridgewater.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$92 billion</u>](https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2025/04/1195812/bridgewater-assets-down-18pct-2024-amid-revamp#google_vignette)), [<u>Renaissance Technologies</u>](https://www.rentec.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$89 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/renaissance-technologies-llc)), [<u>AQR Capital Management</u>](https://www.aqr.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$133 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/aqr-capital-management-llc)), and [<u>Elliott Investment Management</u>](https://www.elliottmgmt.com/) ([<u>\\~\\$97 billion</u>](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/elliott-management-corp)). These firms employ diverse strategies, including quantitative trading, global macro, activist investing, and distressed securities, managing vast sums for institutional and high-net-worth clients. Despite their size and sophistication, hedge funds face risks such as market volatility, leverage, regulatory scrutiny, and operational failures. Historical examples like [<u>Long-Term Capital Management’s 1998 collapse</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp) highlight the potential for catastrophic losses, even among elite funds.\n\nIn 2025, this question is particularly impactful due to escalating global trade tensions and economic developments. The U.S. has implemented sweeping tariffs, including a [<u>145% levy on Chinese imports </u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-raises-tariffs-on-china-to-125-overview-and-trade-implications/)and 10-25% tariffs on other trading partners, prompting retaliatory measures from China (125% on U.S. goods), the EU, and others. These tariffs have triggered significant market volatility, with the [<u>S\\&P 500 dropping nearly 5% on April 2, 2025</u>](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/u-s-stocks-drop-after-hours-as-trump-imposes-sweeping-tariffs-sp-500-etf-falls-2-live-updates/6210156/), and U.S. Treasury yields spiking amid hedge fund liquidations of leveraged positions, such as the basis trade. Analysts project [<u>U.S. GDP growth could fall to 1.6% or lower, with inflation potentially hitting 4%</u>](https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/slowing-growth-higher-prices-a-deeper-dive-into-our-u-s-forecasts/), raising recession risks (40-50% probability per some forecasts). Such conditions strain hedge funds’ portfolios, especially those with heavy exposure to equities, derivatives, or international markets, increasing the likelihood of a \"blow up\" due to margin calls, investor redemptions, or strategy failures. This question probes whether one of these industry giants could falter under these unprecedented pressures in 2025." }, { "id": 36940, "title": "Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Will a prominent Dem seek asylum before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "will-a-prominent-dem-seek-asylum-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-15T12:06:40.438040Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T23:17:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T13:19:06.658535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-20T23:17:14.306747Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-21T23:17:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36340, "title": "Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-15T12:06:40.438463Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T23:17:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-25T23:17:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-25T23:17:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Under the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (article 14) and the 1951 Refugee Convention, persons can seek asylum in other countries to avoid persecution. Historically, few Americans have used that right, because America has largely enjoyed the rule of law and individuals have rarely needed to seek asylum elsewhere. There have been high profile individual cases like [Edward Snowden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Snowden#Flight_from_the_United_States) but these are relatively uncommon. During the Iraq War period, a number of conscientious objectors [sought asylum in Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_resisters_in_Canada) but were generally unsuccessful. No senior American politicians have ever sought asylum in foreign countries.\n\nDuring his first campaign, Trump was famous for using the slogan 'Lock her up!' against Hillary Clinton. During his second campaign, he [made multiple threats to prosecute political enemies](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/21/nx-s1-5134924/trump-election-2024-kamala-harris-elizabeth-cheney-threat-civil-liberties). Since his election he has moved to secure the loyalty of law enforcement agencies and has begun efforts to fire persons such as the [FBI agents who worked on the Jan 6th cases](https://apnews.com/article/trump-fbi-firing-a7b19a5f414ce82c6f6b5f6656000d23). He has also displayed an indifference to the rule of law when [deporting persons to El Salvador](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-trumps-idea-of-imprisoning-u-s-citizens-in-el-salvador-is-likely-illegal) without any due process, in at least one case [in defiance of a court order](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/judge-abrego-garcia-case-indicates-weighing-contempt-proceedings-trump-rcna201359). \n\nIf these trends continue, there is a risk that American dissidents will fear persecution and flee abroad. A senior opposition politician seeking asylum would be an extreme red flag for American democracy. This question seeks to understand the risk of such an event.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before Jan 20, 2029, a prominent Democratic politician formally requests asylum in a foreign jurisdiction. If this does not occur then this question will resolve **No**.\n\nThe politician must officially request asylum through the relevant legal process of the host jurisdiction: simply moving abroad is not enough to resolve this question positively, even if the politician states that they moved for fear of persecution.", "fine_print": "It does not matter whether an asylum claim is reasonable, justified, or likely to be granted by the foreign jurisdiction. If a prominent Democratic politician claims asylum in a foreign jurisdiction, this question resolves as **Yes**, even if the asylum claim appears to be frivolous or unlikely to succeed.\n\nA \"foreign jurisdiction\" means any place not under the control of the United States. It does not include US territories or any area currently occupied or annexed by the United States at the time of the asylum claim.\n\nA \"prominent Democratic politician\" is defined as someone who was a member of the Democratic Party while holding one of the following positions:\n\n* President, Vice President, or presidential or vice presidential candidate\n* Member of the [Cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) or Cabinet-level official\n* Governor of a US state\n* Sitting member of Congress (either Senate or House of Representatives) in January 2025 or subsequently became a member of Congress after that date.", "post_id": 36940, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757251136.29678, "end_time": 1759522323.942567, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757251136.29678, "end_time": 1759522323.942567, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10984377933026289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.35599166159388446, 0.7871049626263756, 0.3089169425760027, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 2.348824073897363, 0.0, 0.8116305268299652, 0.41588412507835687, 0.11843838104696351, 1.0322749900054373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8773351218576806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Under the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (article 14) and the 1951 Refugee Convention, persons can seek asylum in other countries to avoid persecution. Historically, few Americans have used that right, because America has largely enjoyed the rule of law and individuals have rarely needed to seek asylum elsewhere. There have been high profile individual cases like [Edward Snowden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Snowden#Flight_from_the_United_States) but these are relatively uncommon. During the Iraq War period, a number of conscientious objectors [sought asylum in Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_resisters_in_Canada) but were generally unsuccessful. No senior American politicians have ever sought asylum in foreign countries.\n\nDuring his first campaign, Trump was famous for using the slogan 'Lock her up!' against Hillary Clinton. During his second campaign, he [made multiple threats to prosecute political enemies](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/21/nx-s1-5134924/trump-election-2024-kamala-harris-elizabeth-cheney-threat-civil-liberties). Since his election he has moved to secure the loyalty of law enforcement agencies and has begun efforts to fire persons such as the [FBI agents who worked on the Jan 6th cases](https://apnews.com/article/trump-fbi-firing-a7b19a5f414ce82c6f6b5f6656000d23). He has also displayed an indifference to the rule of law when [deporting persons to El Salvador](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-trumps-idea-of-imprisoning-u-s-citizens-in-el-salvador-is-likely-illegal) without any due process, in at least one case [in defiance of a court order](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/judge-abrego-garcia-case-indicates-weighing-contempt-proceedings-trump-rcna201359). \n\nIf these trends continue, there is a risk that American dissidents will fear persecution and flee abroad. A senior opposition politician seeking asylum would be an extreme red flag for American democracy. This question seeks to understand the risk of such an event." }, { "id": 36934, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "short_title": "\"Tariff\" disappear from NYT and WSJ front pages before Jul 2025?", "url_title": "\"Tariff\" disappear from NYT and WSJ front pages before Jul 2025?", "slug": "tariff-disappear-from-nyt-and-wsj-front-pages-before-jul-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-14T20:31:43.697146Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.547223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-16T16:28:29.806175Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36338, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-14T20:31:43.697583Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-15T20:14:58.315356Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on any single day (excluding Sundays) after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, the words \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\" appear on neither:\n\n* the digital version of Today’s Paper of The New York Times (accessible [here](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) - be careful to select the appropriate date in the *The Times in Print For* box)\n* the digital \"Print Edition\" of the Wall Street Journal (accessible [here](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage) - linked front page is for May 15, 2025, be careful to set the correct date in the URL, the format is: yyyy-mm-dd).", "fine_print": "* Grammar or spelling will not prevent a **No** resolution.\n* \"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\n* \"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, even in parts that do not technically belong to the front page, including \"Pages A2-A3 and Corrections\", \"What's News: Business & Finance\" not just the initial section at the top. The only sections that do not qualify are those that do not change between different front pages such as the \"Most Popular News\" or \"Recommended Videos\" sections on WSJ.\n* As the WSJ does not publish on Sundays, Sundays will not count for the purposes of this question. The WSJ Weekend Edition will count for Saturdays, as that's when it is published.", "post_id": 36934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749809729.123489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749809729.123489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3717492025265321 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.05972754056977, 0.007490065831694837, 0.0, 0.1537569890038847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003985266057352753, 8.252244310202348e-05, 0.7199558813944972, 0.0, 0.06988841858564868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18040075447299816, 0.14411073102774866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006834978656102392, 0.0, 1.3397948127909476, 0.033358077258246556, 0.08137920262778493, 0.0, 0.0017563493248750701, 1.0682675104777397, 0.0, 0.005742850570234912, 0.0, 0.0, 2.699046821501686, 1.266466956962308, 0.0, 0.03812750310025072, 0.7916399634466187, 1.8178291227985675, 0.2086764599596681, 0.68468166093996, 0.05272603343263099, 0.0, 1.7982740626775398, 0.04638926826110738, 0.019044075445982297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8115419401756601, 0.5289228768286676, 0.0, 0.4657460861588746, 0.2645246477336361, 0.5828718017554111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20994038678792243, 0.24601320977835656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20355201221764327, 0.01872108284004042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6541955402678244, 0.0074423096365470506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014824357997921995, 0.0, 0.13975972451361307, 0.21373137041938572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316268602586099, 0.0, 0.014133388500397111, 0.01034082290967558, 0.0, 0.0005530683110029844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8298519117758536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00413347442300611 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -12.368922598076466, "peer_score": 40.26228948886139, "coverage": 0.7983540468768904, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999586041690339, "spot_peer_score": 98.92784810056762, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": -12.368922598076466, "peer_archived_score": 40.26228948886139, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 98.92784810056762, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 992, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 36902, "title": "Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Federal investigation over tariff insider trading before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Federal investigation over tariff insider trading before Sep 2025?", "slug": "federal-investigation-over-tariff-insider-trading-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 131306, "author_username": "draaglom", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-10T14:12:53.331257Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.833397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-09T09:48:49.060646Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", 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"Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-10T14:12:53.331693Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T00:12:25.573204Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 2nd, 2025, the Trump administration announced Liberation Day, entailing a series of [wide-sweeping reciprocal tariffs](https://www.csis.org/analysis/liberation-day-tariffs-explained), issuing both a minimum 10% tariff on all countries and higher tariffs on some major trading partners, includiung a 34% tariff on China and 46% on Vietnam.\n\nOn the news, the [S\\&P 500 dropped over 10%](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrvngj03jlo#:~:text=The%20S%26P%20500%20has%20seen%20more%20than%2010%25%20of%20its%20value%20wiped%20out%20over%20three%20days%20%2D%20a%20drop%20almost%20as%20steep%20as%20the%20declines%20seen%20during%20the%202008%20financial%20crisis%20and%20at%20the%20onset%20of%20the%20pandemic%20in%202020.) and [international markets fared similarly](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c934qzd094wo), with the Shanghai Composite dropping 8%.\n\nOn April 8th, [an unsourced post on X (formerly Twitter) claimed a temporary \"90 day pause\" on the tariffs was about to be issued](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/07/media/fake-news-x-post-caused-market-whiplash/index.html); over the course of minutes, markets [surged over 6%](https://www.thejournal.ie/tweet-stock-market-6671720-Apr2025/#:~:text=The%20market%20gained%20%242.4%20trillion%20in%20a%20matter%20of%20minutes%20%E2%80%93%20in%20total%2C%20the%20S%26P%20500%20jumped%20nearly%206%25%20from%20its%20level%20just%20before%20the%20mysterious%20headline%20appeared%20from%20CNBC%20and%20Reuters.) before the Whitehouse denied the post as \"fake news\".\n\nOn April 9th, most [tariffs were paused for 90 days](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/09/trumps-tariff-pause-brings-investors-relief-but-worries-remain) and markets again rebounded, with the [S\\&P climbing 9.5%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-explodes-3000-points-higher-sp-500-has-best-day-since-2008-as-trump-pauses-most-reciprocal-tariffs-133616395.html); some observers noted [unusual volumes of call options purchased minutes before the announcement](https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910120891637186965 \"unusual volumes of call options purchased minutes before the announcement\") which allegedly [earned profits of 2100%](https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1910033260975165836), raising suspicions that some members of government may have traded on the news of a pause before it became public.\n\nInsider trading by congress was made nominally illegal by [the STOCK act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act) in 2012; however, there are few examples of enforcement; e.g. [in the 2020 insider trading scandal, no charges were brought.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_congressional_insider_trading_scandal)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, credible sources report that a formal investigation has been opened into financial misconduct relating to tariff announcements between April 2 and April 9, 2025 by any of:\n\n* Department of Justice (DOJ)\n* Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)\n* a Congressional Oversight committee\n\nIf no public reports available before September 1, 2025 indicate this has occurred, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36902, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751305205.648653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751305205.648653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.986, 0.014 ], "means": [ 0.035208794551256244 ], "histogram": [ [ 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 2nd, 2025, the Trump administration announced Liberation Day, entailing a series of [wide-sweeping reciprocal tariffs](https://www.csis.org/analysis/liberation-day-tariffs-explained), issuing both a minimum 10% tariff on all countries and higher tariffs on some major trading partners, includiung a 34% tariff on China and 46% on Vietnam.\n\nOn the news, the [S\\&P 500 dropped over 10%](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrvngj03jlo#:~:text=The%20S%26P%20500%20has%20seen%20more%20than%2010%25%20of%20its%20value%20wiped%20out%20over%20three%20days%20%2D%20a%20drop%20almost%20as%20steep%20as%20the%20declines%20seen%20during%20the%202008%20financial%20crisis%20and%20at%20the%20onset%20of%20the%20pandemic%20in%202020.) and [international markets fared similarly](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c934qzd094wo), with the Shanghai Composite dropping 8%.\n\nOn April 8th, [an unsourced post on X (formerly Twitter) claimed a temporary \"90 day pause\" on the tariffs was about to be issued](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/07/media/fake-news-x-post-caused-market-whiplash/index.html); over the course of minutes, markets [surged over 6%](https://www.thejournal.ie/tweet-stock-market-6671720-Apr2025/#:~:text=The%20market%20gained%20%242.4%20trillion%20in%20a%20matter%20of%20minutes%20%E2%80%93%20in%20total%2C%20the%20S%26P%20500%20jumped%20nearly%206%25%20from%20its%20level%20just%20before%20the%20mysterious%20headline%20appeared%20from%20CNBC%20and%20Reuters.) before the Whitehouse denied the post as \"fake news\".\n\nOn April 9th, most [tariffs were paused for 90 days](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/09/trumps-tariff-pause-brings-investors-relief-but-worries-remain) and markets again rebounded, with the [S\\&P climbing 9.5%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-explodes-3000-points-higher-sp-500-has-best-day-since-2008-as-trump-pauses-most-reciprocal-tariffs-133616395.html); some observers noted [unusual volumes of call options purchased minutes before the announcement](https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910120891637186965 \"unusual volumes of call options purchased minutes before the announcement\") which allegedly [earned profits of 2100%](https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1910033260975165836), raising suspicions that some members of government may have traded on the news of a pause before it became public.\n\nInsider trading by congress was made nominally illegal by [the STOCK act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act) in 2012; however, there are few examples of enforcement; e.g. [in the 2020 insider trading scandal, no charges were brought.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_congressional_insider_trading_scandal)" }, { "id": 36887, "title": "Will the size of the US Supreme Court increase before 2029?", "short_title": "Will the size of the US Supreme Court increase during Trump's second term?", "url_title": "Will the size of the US Supreme Court increase during Trump's second term?", "slug": "will-the-size-of-the-us-supreme-court-increase-during-trumps-second-term", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-09T07:56:01.545484Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:19:59.089977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:42:35Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 152, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T03:24:11.651779Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T03:24:11.651779Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T01:49:08.486924Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36311, "title": "Will the size of the US Supreme Court increase before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-09T07:56:01.545913Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of writing, there are 9 Supreme Court Justices. However, this number is not determined by the Constitution, but is set by the Judiciary Act of 1869. Congress could pass legislation to change the number of SC Justices, [as was attempted by Roosevelt in 1937](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937). \n\nLike Roosevelt, Donald Trump may wish to pass laws and take executive actions which the Supreme Court may rule against, starting with [his desire to end birthright citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/14/nx-s1-5327552/trump-takes-birthright-citizenship-to-the-supreme-court) and [his desire to impound spending already authorised by Congress](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it). Court-packing provides a method by which he might try to improve his odds of a favorable ruling in these or other cases.\n\nForecasters may also wish to reference [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-2050/) on whether the size of the Supreme Court will change before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "If before January 1, 2029, [28 U.S. Code § 1](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/1) is amended to specify that the Supreme Court of the United States shall consist of greater than a total of 9 justices, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Any change in the law must take effect on or before 1 Jan 2029; a law that goes into effect after this will not be sufficient, even if it has been enacted earlier.\n\nThis question will not consider the number of judges serving. Seats being vacant for any reason (including never being filled) will have no impact on this question.\n\nThis question resolves based on law that has been enacted: that is, passed by both Houses of Congress and received presidential signature, or via veto override.\n\nThis question will resolve based upon the time in Washington, D.C., which is the Eastern Time Zone of the US. ", "post_id": 36887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757722788.093325, "end_time": 1757749718.234195, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757722788.093325, "end_time": 1757749718.234195, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11083304880117488 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.184226143876774, 1.0259711313884947, 1.845199132926413, 1.5717346554132936, 0.7469092829190169, 2.049207875912795, 0.3542738928441353, 0.9387889448741346, 0.512776028530261, 0.40256305439985623, 2.4132046375551153, 0.0, 0.9772385271080377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5945994747188127, 0.5286002354791806, 0.0, 0.0024780496905407565, 0.0, 0.011589438049527542, 0.0, 0.11849294722274446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6287032369462295, 0.025812505364939536, 0.0, 0.07853883424983783, 0.0, 0.4842135347819918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14454644440534972, 0.0002719036921384982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5025567080297947, 0.0, 0.03872441081958038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37064540051936334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009401862354611453, 0.003155871309593475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464783227901198, 0.0, 0.0, 4.178195652973083e-05, 0.0, 0.10707902434839964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10176520789750149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049758773882693175 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of writing, there are 9 Supreme Court Justices. However, this number is not determined by the Constitution, but is set by the Judiciary Act of 1869. Congress could pass legislation to change the number of SC Justices, [as was attempted by Roosevelt in 1937](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937). \n\nLike Roosevelt, Donald Trump may wish to pass laws and take executive actions which the Supreme Court may rule against, starting with [his desire to end birthright citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/14/nx-s1-5327552/trump-takes-birthright-citizenship-to-the-supreme-court) and [his desire to impound spending already authorised by Congress](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it). Court-packing provides a method by which he might try to improve his odds of a favorable ruling in these or other cases.\n\nForecasters may also wish to reference [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-2050/) on whether the size of the Supreme Court will change before 2050." }, { "id": 36880, "title": "Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?", "short_title": "By 2026 will transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits go away?", "url_title": "By 2026 will transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits go away?", "slug": "by-2026-will-transferability-of-any-of-these-clean-energy-tax-credits-go-away", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T21:32:31.774575Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:21:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.217114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:21:46.102857Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T23:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-09T23:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:33:44.752814Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:33:44.752814Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36309, "title": "Will legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 eliminate the transferability of any of these clean energy tax credits (§48E ITC, §45Y PTC, §45X AMPC)?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T21:32:31.775156Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:21:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:21:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-09T23:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-09T23:32:49.498762Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T23:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Inflation Reduction Act, signed by President Joe Biden in August 2022, established several clean energy tax credits including: \n\nSection 48E (ITC) - The [Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-electricity-investment-credit), also known as 48E due to it being in that section of the tax code, is an investment tax credit (ITC) for companies that invest in zero-greenhouse gas energy generation (such as solar and nuclear), storage (e.g., [Tesla Megapacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Megapack)) and any related equipment needed. The credit has a base of 6% of the investment, which can rise up to 30% if certain wage and apprenticeship requirements are met, and up to 50% if additional domestic content and location requirements are met. \n\nSection 45Y (PTC) - The Clean Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as the 45Y credit referring to the section of the US Code from which it comes, [is a tax incentive](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-electricity-production-credit) created by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to incent companies to generate electricity with net zero greenhouse gas emissions. It is technology-neutral, meaning it offers the incentive to any form of electrical production that does not on net create carbon emissions, such as wind, solar, nuclear and geothermal. \n\nSection 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC) - The 45X AMPC is a tax credit ([IRS](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit)) for domestic production in the United States of [components](https://www.plantemoran.com/explore-our-thinking/insight/2023/09/understanding-the-section-45x-tax-credit-for-manufacturers) of clean energy, such as inverters for solar panels, blades of wind turbines, and electrode materials for batteries. 45X was established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which had a goal of creating a thriving, rapidly-growing clean energy sector. The role of 45X is to help the upstream manufacturers, to help ensure that a rapidly-growing sectors such as solar would have the equipment it needed to meet demand, since tax credits boost after-tax profits and thus reduce the cost of capital. \n\nAmong other things, the IRA [made](https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-utilities-are-lining-up-behind-the-climate-bill/) the clean energy tax credits transferable, meaning a company receiving a tax credit for a clean energy project could sell the tax credit to someone else, thus creating a market and boosting production of renewable energy. The Internal Revenue Service runs a [transfer of credits portal](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/register-for-elective-payment-or-transfer-of-credits) allowing companies to register and sell their tax credits. According to investment banking firm [Jeffries](https://www.projectfinance.law/media/5933/what-next-for-the-tax-credit-and-transferability-market-in-trump-20-__.pdf), the size of the tax credit transfer market in 2024 was \\$24 billion, with the PTC being especially valuable due to being collected.\n\nIn January 2025, Donald Trump took power, along with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. One of the areas of negotiations for budget reconciliation, which is a parliamentary procedure allowing tax and spending bills to passed with a simple majority, was how much of the IRA's clean energy tax credits to cut, [including transferability](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/21-house-republicans-oppose-cutting-ira-clean-energy-credits-in-reconciliation/742404/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if legislation is enacted before January 1, 2026 that (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions)) eliminates transferability of one or more of the following tax credits: \n\n* [Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit – 26 U.S. Code § 48E](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-investment-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-48e/)\n* [Clean Electricity Production Tax Credit – 26 U.S. Code § 45Y](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-production-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45y/)\n* [Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit – 26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/)", "fine_print": "\"Eliminates transferability\" is [defined as](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/register-for-elective-payment-or-transfer-of-credits) qualifying businesses, tax-exempt organizations or entities such as state, local and tribal governments not being able to make a transfer election of a credit received for tax year 2026 for 48E, 45Y, or 45X credits received to an unrelated party. Transferability being eliminated for any reason by legislation enacted before January 1, 2026 (including a credit itself being repealed) will count for this question. ", "post_id": 36880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752048285.39909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752048285.39909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15120642972603426 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2268615108626562, 0.555001365518943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5242017987380967, 0.6351213730797269, 0.0, 2.2727447725730503, 0.06449926113694789, 2.4445386737736285, 0.2925703873652975, 1.026006807377744, 1.310567761216904, 0.0, 0.30540327492481656, 0.002018898677062105, 0.09352845379090119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5000970408788499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011411287086953303, 0.0, 0.42727587186652416, 0.14409911274774573, 0.009846599194668917, 0.18410372915774598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0879317055334392, 0.0, 0.04742328604249735, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12005423780973959, 0.06375406454605659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02967609689118139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05852891229315346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011311355950883393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005034190088132767 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.09937856265306, "peer_score": 10.46420948598289, "coverage": 0.3395741068743853, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990303109612999, "spot_peer_score": 49.89935851343924, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 18.09937856265306, "peer_archived_score": 10.46420948598289, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.89935851343924, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Inflation Reduction Act, signed by President Joe Biden in August 2022, established several clean energy tax credits including: \n\nSection 48E (ITC) - The [Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-electricity-investment-credit), also known as 48E due to it being in that section of the tax code, is an investment tax credit (ITC) for companies that invest in zero-greenhouse gas energy generation (such as solar and nuclear), storage (e.g., [Tesla Megapacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Megapack)) and any related equipment needed. The credit has a base of 6% of the investment, which can rise up to 30% if certain wage and apprenticeship requirements are met, and up to 50% if additional domestic content and location requirements are met. \n\nSection 45Y (PTC) - The Clean Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as the 45Y credit referring to the section of the US Code from which it comes, [is a tax incentive](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/clean-electricity-production-credit) created by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to incent companies to generate electricity with net zero greenhouse gas emissions. It is technology-neutral, meaning it offers the incentive to any form of electrical production that does not on net create carbon emissions, such as wind, solar, nuclear and geothermal. \n\nSection 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC) - The 45X AMPC is a tax credit ([IRS](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit)) for domestic production in the United States of [components](https://www.plantemoran.com/explore-our-thinking/insight/2023/09/understanding-the-section-45x-tax-credit-for-manufacturers) of clean energy, such as inverters for solar panels, blades of wind turbines, and electrode materials for batteries. 45X was established by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which had a goal of creating a thriving, rapidly-growing clean energy sector. The role of 45X is to help the upstream manufacturers, to help ensure that a rapidly-growing sectors such as solar would have the equipment it needed to meet demand, since tax credits boost after-tax profits and thus reduce the cost of capital. \n\nAmong other things, the IRA [made](https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-utilities-are-lining-up-behind-the-climate-bill/) the clean energy tax credits transferable, meaning a company receiving a tax credit for a clean energy project could sell the tax credit to someone else, thus creating a market and boosting production of renewable energy. The Internal Revenue Service runs a [transfer of credits portal](https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/register-for-elective-payment-or-transfer-of-credits) allowing companies to register and sell their tax credits. According to investment banking firm [Jeffries](https://www.projectfinance.law/media/5933/what-next-for-the-tax-credit-and-transferability-market-in-trump-20-__.pdf), the size of the tax credit transfer market in 2024 was \\$24 billion, with the PTC being especially valuable due to being collected.\n\nIn January 2025, Donald Trump took power, along with Republican majorities in the House and Senate. One of the areas of negotiations for budget reconciliation, which is a parliamentary procedure allowing tax and spending bills to passed with a simple majority, was how much of the IRA's clean energy tax credits to cut, [including transferability](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/21-house-republicans-oppose-cutting-ira-clean-energy-credits-in-reconciliation/742404/). " }, { "id": 36879, "title": "Чи залишаться українські військові на території Курської області 30 червня 2025?", "short_title": "Ukrainian military in Kursk region in June 2025", "url_title": "Ukrainian military in Kursk region in June 2025", "slug": "ukrainian-military-in-kursk-region-in-june-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:27:17.756761Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.057144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:27:38.519611Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 36308, "title": "Чи залишаться українські військові на території Курської області 30 червня 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:27:17.757181Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-30T18:35:41.201077Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "(З [<u>Вікіпедії</u>](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%B2_%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%80%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%B9_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96_\\(%D0%B7_2024\\))) Бої в Курській області Росії розпочалися зранку 6 серпня 2024 року, коли Збройні сили України перетнули російсько-український кордон поблизу міста Суджа. Українські війська почали просування вглиб території Росії та за кілька днів контролювали кілька сотень квадратних кілометрів. Це була перша українська загальновійськова операція на прикордонній території Росії з початку повномасштабного російського вторгнення в Україну. 12 серпня українська влада вперше підтвердила участь ЗСУ в наступі, а 14 серпня сказала, що українські війська сформували «буферну санітарну зону» у цілях самооборони. На кінець серпня українські війська контролювали близько 1100 км² Курської області.", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання буде вирішене у **Так** якщо 30 червня 2025 біля 12:00 UTC при перегляді карти від [<u>DeepStateUa</u>](https://deepstatemap.live/#11/51.1207649/35.1322174) на ній буде хоча б один регіон у Курській області помічений як “Звільнено” або іншим чином вказана присутність українських військових. При сумнівах к правдивості інформації від DeepStateUA додатковим джерелом буде служити карта від [<u>Institute for the Study of War</u>](https://www.understandingwar.org/) або інші достовірні джерела.", "fine_print": "Заяви українських або російських представників влади та військових за замовчуванням не будуть враховуватись як достовірні і їх не будуть приймати до уваги.", "post_id": 36879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750308035.266763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.47500000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750308035.266763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.47500000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5249999999999999, 0.47500000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.47500000000000003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -32.89446727906897, "peer_score": 113.69686939205832, "coverage": 0.9917682501490468, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9917682501490468, "spot_peer_score": 125.8697704015183, "spot_baseline_score": -62.14883767462702, "baseline_archived_score": -32.89446727906897, "peer_archived_score": 113.69686939205832, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 125.8697704015183, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -62.14883767462702 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "(З [<u>Вікіпедії</u>](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%B2_%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%80%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D1%96%D0%B9_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%96_\\(%D0%B7_2024\\))) Бої в Курській області Росії розпочалися зранку 6 серпня 2024 року, коли Збройні сили України перетнули російсько-український кордон поблизу міста Суджа. Українські війська почали просування вглиб території Росії та за кілька днів контролювали кілька сотень квадратних кілометрів. Це була перша українська загальновійськова операція на прикордонній території Росії з початку повномасштабного російського вторгнення в Україну. 12 серпня українська влада вперше підтвердила участь ЗСУ в наступі, а 14 серпня сказала, що українські війська сформували «буферну санітарну зону» у цілях самооборони. На кінець серпня українські війська контролювали близько 1100 км² Курської області." }, { "id": 36877, "title": "Чи зустрінеться Зеленський з Трампом до липня 2025?", "short_title": "Zelenskyy and Trump meeting by July 2025", "url_title": "Zelenskyy and Trump meeting by July 2025", "slug": "zelenskyy-and-trump-meeting-by-july-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:12:22.433264Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.026275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:12:40.022525Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. 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З того часу вони не зустрічались особисто але обмінялись постами у яких вказували, що конфлікт було вичерпано.\n\nПотенційним приводом для зустрічі могло б бути підписання угоди про корисні копалини, яка зараз опрацьовується обома сторонами, але ніяких точних деталей цієї угоди поки що невідомо, як і орієнтовних строків її підписання.", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання буде вирішене у **Так**, якщо з 01.05.2025 і до 01.07.2025 президент США Дональд Трамп і президент України Володимир Зеленський зустрінуться особисто.", "fine_print": "Тривалість зустрічі не має значення.\n\nОприлюднення спільних фотографій зустрічі буде також вважатись свідоцтвом зустрічі якщо немає сумніві в автентичності цих фотографій.\n\nФотографії або звіти про зустріч, оприлюднені після 01.07.2025 будуть також враховуватись, якщо сама зустріч пройшла у вказаному часовому періоді.", "post_id": 36877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750308020.893388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.591 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.932 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750308020.893388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.591 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.409, 0.591 ], "means": [ 0.591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.841634904596596, "peer_score": 4.067781951178248, "coverage": 0.9917954888963038, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9917954888963038, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 43.841634904596596, "peer_archived_score": 4.067781951178248, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Крайній візит Володимира Зеленського 28 лютого 2025 до Білого Дому закінчився конфліктом з президентом США Дональдом Трампом та віце-президентом Джей Ді Венсом. З того часу вони не зустрічались особисто але обмінялись постами у яких вказували, що конфлікт було вичерпано.\n\nПотенційним приводом для зустрічі могло б бути підписання угоди про корисні копалини, яка зараз опрацьовується обома сторонами, але ніяких точних деталей цієї угоди поки що невідомо, як і орієнтовних строків її підписання." }, { "id": 36876, "title": "Чи перевищать втрати особового складу Росії 1 мільйон осіб до 10.06.2025", "short_title": "Russia's losses of 1 million people as of 10 June 2025", "url_title": "Russia's losses of 1 million people as of 10 June 2025", "slug": "russias-losses-of-1-million-people-as-of-10-june-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:03.607484Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.654021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:59.992270Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T07:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 36305, "title": "Чи перевищать втрати особового складу Росії 1 мільйон осіб до 10.06.2025", "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:03.607825Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T07:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-10T07:23:08.517574Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "З початку вторгнення Росії в Україну 24 лютого 2022-го року Генштаб Украхни веде статистику втрат окупаційних військ. На даний момент кількість втрат окупантів у особовому складі вже перевищила 900 000 осіб і за останній рік у середньому створює +1250 осіб на добу. За підтримки таких темпів мільон втрат буде досягнуто у квітні 2025-го року.", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання буде вирішене у **Так**, якщо до 10.06.2025 Міністерство Оборони України опублікує звіт, у якому буде вказано більше ніж 1 мільйон втрат особового складу Росії.\n\nЯкщо у всіх звітах, оприлюднених до 10.06.2025 буде вказано менше ніж 1 мільйон втрат, це питання буде вирішено у **Ні**.\n\nДля вирішення цього питання будуть враховуватись звіти, опубліковані [<u>на офіційній сторінці</u>](https://mod.gov.ua/news?tags=%D0%92%D1%96%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%96%D1%87+%D0%B0%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83), а також на сторінках Генштабу у соціальних мережах ([<u>Facebook</u>](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua),[ <u>Telegram</u>](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU),[ <u>X.com</u>](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA)).. \n\nДодаткова статистика і тренди доступні на сайтах [<u>russian-casualties-in-ua</u>](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/),[ <u>Combat.FYI</u>](https://combat.fyi/) та у[ <u>2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset</u>](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)", "fine_print": "Адміністрація зачекає 1 додатковий день для вирішення цього питання, для того аби переконатись, що ключовий звіт не буде змодифікований ретроспективно.", "post_id": 36876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749184475.25176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749184475.25176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.55 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -42.74585292614166, "peer_score": 9.398616049088089, "coverage": 0.9887872244116362, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9887872244116362, "spot_peer_score": 40.82390349908898, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "baseline_archived_score": -42.74585292614166, "peer_archived_score": 9.398616049088089, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.82390349908898, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "З початку вторгнення Росії в Україну 24 лютого 2022-го року Генштаб Украхни веде статистику втрат окупаційних військ. На даний момент кількість втрат окупантів у особовому складі вже перевищила 900 000 осіб і за останній рік у середньому створює +1250 осіб на добу. За підтримки таких темпів мільон втрат буде досягнуто у квітні 2025-го року." }, { "id": 36875, "title": "Чи будуть дві третини населення довіряти президенту Зеленському у травні-червні 2025 року?", "short_title": "Public trust in Zelensky in May-June 2025", "url_title": "Public trust in Zelensky in May-June 2025", "slug": "public-trust-in-zelensky-in-may-june-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:00:47.690079Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.887476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:01:21.318344Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 36304, "title": "Чи будуть дві третини населення довіряти президенту Зеленському у травні-червні 2025 року?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:00:47.690513Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-17T15:56:36.454851Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Київський Міжнародний Інститут Соціології [<u>проводить регулярні опитування</u>](https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr\\&cat=reports\\&id=1510\\&page=1\\&t=1) населення, вимірюючи різні параметри політичної активності в Україні. Одне з питань **Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте Володимиру Зеленському?».** \n\n\n\nДля демократичних країн є типовим втрата довіра до президента з часом після його обрання. Це також називають періодом “[<u>медового місяця</u>](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)“, коли на новообраного президента ставлять багато надій, і ці надії поступово випаровуються і тиснуть на рейтинг вниз. \n\nСхожу картину ми бачили у рейтингу президента Володимира Зеленського з травня 2022-го року, щоправда у цьому випадку “медовий місяць” був спричинений вторгненням Російської Федерації в Україну і консолідацією суспільства навколо президента.\n\nУ лютому 2025-го після конфлікту з Дональдом Трампом і Дж. Ді Венсом у Білому Домі, рейтинг президента знов зріс до 69%. Але питання, чи залишиться він на цьому ж рівні?\n\n\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання вирішиться у **Так** якщо за результатом опитування КМІС “*Динаміка довіри Президенту В. Зеленському в 2019-2025 роках*” у травні або червні 2025-го варіант “*Довіряю*” отримає **67%** або вище. Якщо результат буде нижче ніж 67%, це питання буде вирішене у **Ні**.\n\nТільки перше опитування, що належить до цього інтервалу, враховується для вирішення.", "fine_print": "Перше опитування, **дата початку** якого є включно або пізніше 01.05.2025 та раніше ніж 01.07.2025 буде використане для вирішення цього питання. Якщо таких опитувань не буде проведено до 05.07.2025, це питання буде **анульоване**. \n\nЯкщо датою буде вказано один або декілька місяців, це сприймається як “з першого числа місяця початку до останнього числа місяця закінчення”. Тобто опитування з датами **тра.25**, **чер.25** і **тра.25-чер.25** буде враховано.\n\nЯкщо питання у опитуванні КМІС буде суттєво модифіковано, наприклад, додані нові варіанти відповіді, або якщо Зеленський перестане бути президентом України на момент опитування, це питання буде також **анульоване**. \n\nТільки опитування КМІС буде враховано. Опитування інших джерел не враховуються.", "post_id": 36875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746086891.178374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746086891.178374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -46.44408057134586, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.2673863013023028, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9693763189207351, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -46.44408057134586, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Київський Міжнародний Інститут Соціології [<u>проводить регулярні опитування</u>](https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr\\&cat=reports\\&id=1510\\&page=1\\&t=1) населення, вимірюючи різні параметри політичної активності в Україні. Одне з питань **Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте Володимиру Зеленському?».** \n\n\n\nДля демократичних країн є типовим втрата довіра до президента з часом після його обрання. Це також називають періодом “[<u>медового місяця</u>](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)“, коли на новообраного президента ставлять багато надій, і ці надії поступово випаровуються і тиснуть на рейтинг вниз. \n\nСхожу картину ми бачили у рейтингу президента Володимира Зеленського з травня 2022-го року, щоправда у цьому випадку “медовий місяць” був спричинений вторгненням Російської Федерації в Україну і консолідацією суспільства навколо президента.\n\nУ лютому 2025-го після конфлікту з Дональдом Трампом і Дж. Ді Венсом у Білому Домі, рейтинг президента знов зріс до 69%. Але питання, чи залишиться він на цьому ж рівні?\n\n\n\n" }, { "id": 36872, "title": "Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "short_title": "Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "url_title": "Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "slug": "yield-on-10-year-us-treasury-notes-exceed-5-for-at-least-one-month-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:38:22.767474Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.796117Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:46.590947Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36296, "title": "Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:38:22.767895Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, often seen as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, reflects the interplay of inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and investor confidence in U.S. debt. As of early 2025, the 10-year yield stands at approximately [<u>4.3%, up from 3.88% at the end of 2024</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a robust U.S. economy. Historically, yields last breached 5% in 2007, before the financial crisis sent them tumbling \\[FRED, 2025]. Today, with the federal funds rate holding above 4% and the [<u>Fed signaling caution on rate cuts</u>](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), the trajectory of Treasury yields is a hot topic among economists and investors.\n\nThis forecast—whether the 10-year yield will exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025—is critical because it tests the resilience of the U.S. financial system under mounting pressures. Some analysts, including crypto commentator [<u>Arthur Hayes, argue that rising yields could signal market unease</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b) with ballooning U.S. deficits—[<u>projected to hit \\$2 trillion annually by 2025</u>](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/2025-budget-outlook)—forcing the Fed to resume money printing to cap borrowing costs. Others point to global factors, like Japan’s loose monetary stance or China’s economic maneuvers, [<u>as potential amplifiers of yield volatility</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-15/global-bond-markets-face-new-reality). Yet, a [<u>strong dollar and demand for safe-haven assets</u>](https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-climb-2025) could keep yields in check.\n\nThe implications are substantial. [<u>A sustained 5% yield could raise mortgage rates, squeeze corporate borrowing, and rattle equity markets</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investing/2025/03/20/rising-treasury-yields-impact/), potentially tipping the U.S. into recession. It might also trigger a policy pivot, with the Fed slashing rates or expanding its balance sheet—moves that could boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as some predict. For bond traders, policymakers, and everyday consumers, this question probes whether 2025 will mark a breaking point for the Treasury market or a return to tighter equilibrium.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if by December 31st, 2025 the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one week according to the monthly average yield data from the [<u>U.S. Treasury Department or Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) in 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747075510.695977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747075510.695977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.19205967722287737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, often seen as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, reflects the interplay of inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and investor confidence in U.S. debt. As of early 2025, the 10-year yield stands at approximately [<u>4.3%, up from 3.88% at the end of 2024</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a robust U.S. economy. Historically, yields last breached 5% in 2007, before the financial crisis sent them tumbling \\[FRED, 2025]. Today, with the federal funds rate holding above 4% and the [<u>Fed signaling caution on rate cuts</u>](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), the trajectory of Treasury yields is a hot topic among economists and investors.\n\nThis forecast—whether the 10-year yield will exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025—is critical because it tests the resilience of the U.S. financial system under mounting pressures. Some analysts, including crypto commentator [<u>Arthur Hayes, argue that rising yields could signal market unease</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b) with ballooning U.S. deficits—[<u>projected to hit \\$2 trillion annually by 2025</u>](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/2025-budget-outlook)—forcing the Fed to resume money printing to cap borrowing costs. Others point to global factors, like Japan’s loose monetary stance or China’s economic maneuvers, [<u>as potential amplifiers of yield volatility</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-15/global-bond-markets-face-new-reality). Yet, a [<u>strong dollar and demand for safe-haven assets</u>](https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-climb-2025) could keep yields in check.\n\nThe implications are substantial. [<u>A sustained 5% yield could raise mortgage rates, squeeze corporate borrowing, and rattle equity markets</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investing/2025/03/20/rising-treasury-yields-impact/), potentially tipping the U.S. into recession. It might also trigger a policy pivot, with the Fed slashing rates or expanding its balance sheet—moves that could boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as some predict. For bond traders, policymakers, and everyday consumers, this question probes whether 2025 will mark a breaking point for the Treasury market or a return to tighter equilibrium." }, { "id": 36871, "title": "Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "short_title": "Market cap for USDT & USDC surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "url_title": "Market cap for USDT & USDC surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "slug": "market-cap-for-usdt-usdc-surpass-300-billion-usd-by-june-30-2026", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:35:53.617089Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.613333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:54:01.100466Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36295, "title": "Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:35:53.617468Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have become linchpins of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, offering a bridge between volatile digital assets and traditional fiat currencies. As of early 2025, their combined market capitalization hovers around \\$150–\\$200 billion USD, according to data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, with [<u>USDT</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/) dominating as the most widely used stablecoin globally and [<u>USDC</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) gaining traction among institutional players for its transparency and regulatory compliance. These assets underpin decentralized finance (DeFi), facilitate trading on crypto exchanges, and serve as a store of value in regions with unstable local currencies.\n\nThis forecast—whether USDT and USDC’s combined market cap will surpass \\$300 billion by June 30, 2026—is significant because it tests the trajectory of stablecoin adoption amid shifting macroeconomic winds. Analysts suggest that renewed U.S. Federal Reserve easing, potentially driven by rising inflation or Treasury market pressures, could flood markets with liquidity, [<u>spurring demand for stablecoins as a hedge or transactional medium</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b). Current Fed policies, with rates steady above 4% as of early 2025, face scrutiny as [<u>10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), hinting at conditions that might force monetary expansion. Conversely, regulatory risks loom large—[<u>USDT’s past opacity and potential U.S. clampdowns on stablecoin issuers could stall growth</u>](https://www.forbes.com/investing/worlds-largest-stablecoins/).\n\nThe implications are profound. A \\$300 billion market cap would [<u>signal deeper integration of crypto into mainstream finance</u>](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2025/03/stablecoins-digital-currencies-rise/), challenging banks and amplifying stablecoins’ role in cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity pools. It could also reflect a flight to digital safety nets if inflation exceeds 4% annually, [<u>as some predict</u>](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). For traders, developers, and policymakers, this question probes whether stablecoins will solidify as the backbone of a new financial paradigm—or face a ceiling as global authorities and competing digital currencies, like CBDCs, close in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if by June 30th, 2026, the total market cap for both USDT and USDC stablecoins - according to CoinGecko OR CoinMarketCap - is greater than \\$300 billion USD.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756548798.507, "end_time": 1760141442.391, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756548798.507, "end_time": 1760141442.391, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have become linchpins of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, offering a bridge between volatile digital assets and traditional fiat currencies. As of early 2025, their combined market capitalization hovers around \\$150–\\$200 billion USD, according to data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, with [<u>USDT</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/) dominating as the most widely used stablecoin globally and [<u>USDC</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) gaining traction among institutional players for its transparency and regulatory compliance. These assets underpin decentralized finance (DeFi), facilitate trading on crypto exchanges, and serve as a store of value in regions with unstable local currencies.\n\nThis forecast—whether USDT and USDC’s combined market cap will surpass \\$300 billion by June 30, 2026—is significant because it tests the trajectory of stablecoin adoption amid shifting macroeconomic winds. Analysts suggest that renewed U.S. Federal Reserve easing, potentially driven by rising inflation or Treasury market pressures, could flood markets with liquidity, [<u>spurring demand for stablecoins as a hedge or transactional medium</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b). Current Fed policies, with rates steady above 4% as of early 2025, face scrutiny as [<u>10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), hinting at conditions that might force monetary expansion. Conversely, regulatory risks loom large—[<u>USDT’s past opacity and potential U.S. clampdowns on stablecoin issuers could stall growth</u>](https://www.forbes.com/investing/worlds-largest-stablecoins/).\n\nThe implications are profound. A \\$300 billion market cap would [<u>signal deeper integration of crypto into mainstream finance</u>](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2025/03/stablecoins-digital-currencies-rise/), challenging banks and amplifying stablecoins’ role in cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity pools. It could also reflect a flight to digital safety nets if inflation exceeds 4% annually, [<u>as some predict</u>](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). For traders, developers, and policymakers, this question probes whether stablecoins will solidify as the backbone of a new financial paradigm—or face a ceiling as global authorities and competing digital currencies, like CBDCs, close in." }, { "id": 36815, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.694881Z", "published_at": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.205836Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36246, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.694881Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:24:24.508413Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36800, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.157193Z", "published_at": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.793237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36231, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.157193Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:36:32.668857Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36794, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.809810Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.343717Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36225, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.809810Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:45:17.652712Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" } ] }
