Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=740
{ "count": 5894, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=760", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=720", "results": [ { "id": 36791, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.777246Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.258732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36222, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.777246Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:45:07.470550Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744997014.925064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.354 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744997014.925064, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.354 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.30838236321128076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1938306278136681, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8108787643212219, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0185396066049277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9482989763247316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 1.0113649005183396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36788, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.608657Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.991756Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36219, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.608657Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T09:34:55.511651Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36788, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744972285.891261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744972285.891261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29870552907612724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 1.0, 0.22246600688055201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20793326734720885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.738234581892038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 2.520000521535028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8046109279742631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36785, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.576916Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.815645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36216, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.576916Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:44:37.398767Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36785, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744950722.917794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744950722.917794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3015842359639613 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4275001579431648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 2.1732810444820374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.9336611501446392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36782, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.418680Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.682697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36213, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.418680Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:24:00.392448Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744932866.981231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744932866.981231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2977490645734874 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.092927457757326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.7586143445231218, 2.451468641438015, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3261020917920336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.4393494507171673, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36779, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.249863Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.164408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36210, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.249863Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:17.730595Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36779, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744907689.9289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744907689.9289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29214418750878507 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1103741908756157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.124147821654637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3705913920588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1254160106759947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36776, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.219019Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.568634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36207, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.219019Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:50:36.873324Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744890848.685599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744890848.685599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.38753325116818466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.6927993366562459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1936608536909636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1413227798720966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7534699464779995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36773, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.049389Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.637456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36204, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.049389Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:50:11.610449Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744864338.024613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744864338.024613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3809335953566218 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7636143046006238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2830705323376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8835383606046076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.655887216949221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.5736683740981936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36770, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.017282Z", "published_at": "2025-04-16T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.887115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36201, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.017282Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:51:02.902037Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744846437.482751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744846437.482751, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3727347266734815 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.680338502325549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 2.4367196307137338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.025598732154144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1653066620297875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36767, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.857804Z", "published_at": "2025-04-16T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.673272Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36198, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.857804Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:50:29.946237Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744821331.702939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744821331.702939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3669513644282334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.766338005925373, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6376996866280927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2356747323337394, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4097053373864417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05452450123047137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36764, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.679655Z", "published_at": "2025-04-16T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.517902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36195, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.679655Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T14:42:58.319925Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744799497.125603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744799497.125603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36462109561432066 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.975198550116599, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.295531366668297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7693359977051792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.004134073225646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36761, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.648532Z", "published_at": "2025-04-16T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.870620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36192, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.648532Z", "open_time": "2025-04-16T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:58:18.352009Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744777943.27829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744777943.27829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.330137543679261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 1.0338720595285722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4137677165138935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6876566514599292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7869969966075794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.359670024845978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36758, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.478232Z", "published_at": "2025-04-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.456093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36189, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.478232Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:58:13.834654Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-16T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744760022.994888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744760022.994888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3773606004441231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.596197958303874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9349692654501531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 1.435587738742347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6562642058017948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36755, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.446088Z", "published_at": "2025-04-15T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.079859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T14:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36186, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.446088Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T14:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T14:43:10.549910Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36755, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744734778.587858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744734778.587858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4347733128477324 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 1.0371979129738937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08463637410442552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5075325572349407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1710569757183782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0498726449179983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6774401445581095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36752, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.281071Z", "published_at": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.233578Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36183, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.281071Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T15:50:24.287883Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744717277.444839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744717277.444839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4466035830930817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6927993366562459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5102605963352878, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9955106682831035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5871677534801658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36749, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.133807Z", "published_at": "2025-04-15T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.574212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36180, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.133807Z", "open_time": "2025-04-15T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T15:49:38.970596Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744691607.420927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744691607.420927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.42134586457650886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16493332406248704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2229668776167295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5582080962478733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4643700230769754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.7729543005723882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8328123052293809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36746, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.103258Z", "published_at": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.462656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36177, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:10.103258Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T09:35:35.726794Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744673625.629981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744673625.629981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2939546021135176 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36743, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.941876Z", "published_at": "2025-04-14T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.721494Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36174, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.941876Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:44:24.988563Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744648516.641388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744648516.641388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2884705488831688 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36740, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.910583Z", "published_at": "2025-04-14T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.781365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36171, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.910583Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T13:16:42.376946Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36740, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744626630.688452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.285 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744626630.688452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.285 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7150000000000001, 0.285 ], "means": [ 0.260894343977536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36737, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.748536Z", "published_at": "2025-04-14T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.708871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36168, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.748536Z", "open_time": "2025-04-14T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T09:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T09:35:55.435236Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744605174.672657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744605174.672657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27460756943070636 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 1.148571494517046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36734, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.597770Z", "published_at": "2025-04-13T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.493582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-13T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36165, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:09.597770Z", "open_time": "2025-04-13T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:44:12.359017Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-14T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744587324.291068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744587324.291068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29486538811987595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" } ] }
