Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=780
{ "count": 6293, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=800", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=760", "results": [ { "id": 38440, "title": "Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "China ban US export of rare earths before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "China ban US export of rare earths before Sep 2025?", "slug": "china-ban-us-export-of-rare-earths-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-06T08:42:42.850401Z", "published_at": "2025-06-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.936925Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-27T10:34:23.812036Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 144, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37713, "title": "Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-06T08:42:42.850879Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T00:43:05.376860Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rare earth elements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element) are a group of 17 metallic elements with unique chemical and physical properties essential to modern technology and advanced manufacturing. Their special properties make them critical components in many high-tech products such as electronics, magnets, batteries, wind turbines, and many other green energy and high-tech applications.\n\nChina mines roughly 70%, and refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements. This dominant position gives China considerable leverage in shaping global supply chains and pricing. Over time, China has implemented export controls such as quotas, tariffs, and licensing requirements to manage resource availability and support its domestic industries.\n\nIn December 2024, China [announced](https://www.mining.com/china-bans-export-of-gallium-germanium-and-antimony-to-the-us/) an export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony, to the United States. Although not technically considered rare earths, these materials share similar traits and are used in strategic technologies.\n\nIn April 2025, China [introduced](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-know-about-chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-06-04/) a new requirement that exporters obtain individual export licenses for seven rare earth substances: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. This significantly reduced export of these substances, with only a small percentage of applications being approved. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, China enacts an export ban to the United States on one or more of the following substances:\n\n* Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Europium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Promethium.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as **Yes**, the ban must be publicly announced and take effect before September 1, 2025.\n\nFor this question, a “ban” means a complete prohibition on exporting the element in its refined metal or primary industrial compound forms, excluding finished products or goods containing trace amounts.", "post_id": 38440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756658640.345335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756658640.345335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.012660839351230966 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.40913895072162, 5.073228992648339, 0.7659217832768324, 0.7955426129458252, 0.005492642742047303, 0.06570394344352248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010726889564779733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000590830648692911, 0.029661619281934278, 0.0, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027241077649050628, 0.06137663140146779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018890079689041174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00160604421603861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011867150809672386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10100828826139664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00135283348636685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006250572693223461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022042756185946867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.81944825828653, "peer_score": 15.616569259746452, "coverage": 0.9998800632870807, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998800632870807, "spot_peer_score": 16.933168039609438, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.81944825828653, "peer_archived_score": 15.616569259746452, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.933168039609438, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 852, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rare earth elements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element) are a group of 17 metallic elements with unique chemical and physical properties essential to modern technology and advanced manufacturing. Their special properties make them critical components in many high-tech products such as electronics, magnets, batteries, wind turbines, and many other green energy and high-tech applications.\n\nChina mines roughly 70%, and refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements. This dominant position gives China considerable leverage in shaping global supply chains and pricing. Over time, China has implemented export controls such as quotas, tariffs, and licensing requirements to manage resource availability and support its domestic industries.\n\nIn December 2024, China [announced](https://www.mining.com/china-bans-export-of-gallium-germanium-and-antimony-to-the-us/) an export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony, to the United States. Although not technically considered rare earths, these materials share similar traits and are used in strategic technologies.\n\nIn April 2025, China [introduced](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-know-about-chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-06-04/) a new requirement that exporters obtain individual export licenses for seven rare earth substances: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. This significantly reduced export of these substances, with only a small percentage of applications being approved. " }, { "id": 38428, "title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "short_title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "url_title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "slug": "will-south-korean-president-lee-jae-myung-complete-his-full-term", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-05T11:19:16.145258Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T21:56:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.259866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T21:56:40.026355Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-12T21:56:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37699, "title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "created_at": "2025-06-05T11:19:16.145631Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T21:56:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T21:56:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-16T21:56:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 14, 2025, South Korea elected its [14th president](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_South_Korea \"South Korea has had 14 presidents\"), [Lee Jae-Myung](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-myung \"Lee Jae-Myung\"). Many of South Korea's presidents these had their terms end prematurely, with 2 getting impeached ([Yoon Suk Yeol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoon_Suk_Yeol \"Yoon Suk Yeol\") and [Park Geun-hye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye \"Park Geun-hye\")), 3 resigning ([Syngman Rhee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syngman_Rhee \"Syngman Rhee\"), [Yun Po-sun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Po-sun \"Yun Po-sun\"), and [Choi Kyu-hah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyu-hah \"Choi Kyu-hah\")) and 1 being assassinated ([Park Chung Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung_Hee \"Park Chung Hee\")). Lee Jae-Myung himself has survived [an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Lee_Jae-myung).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lee Jae-Myung completes his term as President of South Korea (currently scheduled to last until 2030).", "fine_print": "* If the duration of presidential terms changes while Lee Jae-Myung is president, this question will resolve according to the new term limit.\n* Reelections are immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n* If Lee Jae-Myung gets impeached by the National Assembly, but the Constitutional Court reinstates him and his title of President is not revoked, this question will *not* resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 38428, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755984443.655289, "end_time": 1766130104.499, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755984443.655289, "end_time": 1766130104.499, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7938745692303468 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.4012260631462153, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0644634174904052, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 14, 2025, South Korea elected its [14th president](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_South_Korea \"South Korea has had 14 presidents\"), [Lee Jae-Myung](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-myung \"Lee Jae-Myung\"). Many of South Korea's presidents these had their terms end prematurely, with 2 getting impeached ([Yoon Suk Yeol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoon_Suk_Yeol \"Yoon Suk Yeol\") and [Park Geun-hye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye \"Park Geun-hye\")), 3 resigning ([Syngman Rhee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syngman_Rhee \"Syngman Rhee\"), [Yun Po-sun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Po-sun \"Yun Po-sun\"), and [Choi Kyu-hah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyu-hah \"Choi Kyu-hah\")) and 1 being assassinated ([Park Chung Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung_Hee \"Park Chung Hee\")). Lee Jae-Myung himself has survived [an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Lee_Jae-myung)." }, { "id": 38418, "title": "Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?", "short_title": "US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?", "url_title": "US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?", "slug": "us-and-china-reach-an-agreement-to-limit-frontier-ai-development-before-2029", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T17:35:47.648958Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:50:20.382151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:18.239472Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37691, "title": "Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T17:35:47.649389Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI 2027 scenario is divided into two endings: \"[race](https://ai-2027.com/race)\" and \"[slowdown](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown).\" In the race scenario the US attempts to develop AI as quickly as possible to outpace China, while in the slowdown scenario the US slows development to focus on alignment.\n\nIn the slowdown scenario, a slowdown deal is considered but is ultimately not reached:\n\n[December 2027: A US-China Deal?](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-12-31):\n\n> So China increasingly fears that America will build an insurmountable lead. They want a mutual slowdown, and are considering going to war if they can’t get it.[<sup>21</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-21) They were prepping to invade Taiwan anyway…\n\n> But the main problem is not technical but political. Neither wants to be seen as giving in, and despite their engineers’ guesses, neither is convinced that the technical mechanisms can guarantee the other side’s honesty. What ends up happening is the first option: Nothing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the US or China formally and credibly announces that a formal bilateral agreement has been reached, that limits the training or deployment of AI above a certain capability level or compute threshold.", "fine_print": "This question only considers formal mutual agreements, informal arrangements or individual, separate commitments will not qualify.\n\nAny such agreement qualifies, as long as it covers all models above a capability or compute threshold.\n\nThe agreement has to impose specific, bug general limitations on frontier models.\n\n* Vague commitments, such as \"ensuring the AI benefits all of humanity\", will not suffice.\n* Narrow commitments, such as ensuring that an AI always refuses to generate biological weapon ideas or prohibiting the use of AI in nuclear weapons, will not suffice.\n* Examples of agreements that would qualify:\n * Prohibiting any AI with more than X compute, X parameters, or X score in some benchmark from being deployed or trained.\n * Mandating that AIs above a certain threshold undergo third-party safety evaluations of a specific form.", "post_id": 38418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198630.090059, "end_time": 1762996834.111, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198630.090059, "end_time": 1762996834.111, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.14194564684634903 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9365649567944803, 1.0999791815545696, 0.0030998879571656206, 1.424074627023165, 0.32273108745831064, 2.7176772292664446, 0.38472633077366164, 0.5001101344546569, 0.282271912878844, 0.28960397325333087, 1.468381033713459, 0.0, 0.3624656826137547, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4263234204454878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.084439500120368, 0.01568685324934101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037093083674210204, 0.03476819804911231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009971818499667707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4470422087635825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5066420810053682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4530075467375898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03975884654139512, 0.16940609254472613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08599242669477071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07800161805115473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10878855003544706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0186219338548433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032753212234852405 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 554, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI 2027 scenario is divided into two endings: \"[race](https://ai-2027.com/race)\" and \"[slowdown](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown).\" In the race scenario the US attempts to develop AI as quickly as possible to outpace China, while in the slowdown scenario the US slows development to focus on alignment.\n\nIn the slowdown scenario, a slowdown deal is considered but is ultimately not reached:\n\n[December 2027: A US-China Deal?](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-12-31):\n\n> So China increasingly fears that America will build an insurmountable lead. They want a mutual slowdown, and are considering going to war if they can’t get it.[<sup>21</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-21) They were prepping to invade Taiwan anyway…\n\n> But the main problem is not technical but political. Neither wants to be seen as giving in, and despite their engineers’ guesses, neither is convinced that the technical mechanisms can guarantee the other side’s honesty. What ends up happening is the first option: Nothing." }, { "id": 38417, "title": "Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-government-mandate-security-clearance-from-the-employees-that-lead-the-research-and-development-of-the-top-models-at-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-before-2028", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T14:18:05.682358Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:50:21.167354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:57.555311Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37690, "title": "Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T14:18:05.682801Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n\n> OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n\nThen, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n\n> The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n\nEventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> \n> They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> \n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US government mandates that the employees that are leading the research and development of frontier AI capabilities at least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind have some form of security clearance. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If a security clearance is mandated for at least one person who could be considered to be leading the R\\&D on the most capable or promising AI of at least one company, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if multiple people could be considered to be leading the R\\&D.\n* This question will also resolve as **Yes** if US government employees with security clearance are leading the frontier R\\&D at one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind.", "post_id": 38417, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198630.576979, "end_time": 1762531206.125, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198630.576979, "end_time": 1762531206.125, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4176047598582266 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4606527189387643, 0.1345137037522881, 0.0, 0.1226831864486109, 0.0, 0.8738508717282191, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4498005354990664, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043962607759905424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28812778104939424, 0.011295907652000815, 0.9306109772226904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36073735010576324, 0.0, 0.36733621818599327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9252653881226068, 0.20862122528853305, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.5740082308689856, 0.8353457947936487, 0.0, 0.16098235374781072, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 1.7511974731152073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4640999704729707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007926343375474506, 0.519811278060808, 0.006513847192233464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.688119775802259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11017420783853676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11171412217289521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1472607563769713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.8166751641342747 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 526, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n\n> OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n\nThen, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n\n> The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n\nEventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> \n> They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> \n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight." }, { "id": 38416, "title": "Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-vote-of-no-confidence-pass-the-french-national-assembly-before-july-14-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T13:45:43.083395Z", "published_at": "2025-06-04T21:45:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.488392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-04T21:45:38.774698Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T15:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-04T23:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37689, "title": "Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T13:45:43.083764Z", "open_time": "2025-06-04T23:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T03:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T03:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T15:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-14T15:07:00.621691Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_49_of_the_French_Constitution#Vote_of_no_confidence_\\(49.2\\)): \n\n> A vote of no confidence (*censure*) allows the National Assembly, on its own initiative, to force the government to resign. The vote's application and action by the parliament, in this regard, is an essential characteristic of any parliamentary system. De Gaulle, when inaugurated as prime minister under the Fourth Republic, promised he would include this procedure in the proposed reform of institutions. It was actually imposed by the Constitutional Law of 3 June 1958.\n\nLe Figaro (translated from French by Google): [LFI files a motion of censure against the government](https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/rejet-volontaire-de-la-loi-duplomb-lfi-depose-une-motion-de-censure-contre-le-gouvernement-20250530)\n\n> Members of parliament from La France Insoumise and the Green Party filed a motion of no confidence in François Bayrou's government on Friday, following the tactical rejection of a proposed agricultural law by the central bloc and the far right, denounced as a maneuver aimed \"at muzzling national representation.\" Submitted by 56 LFI members and two members of the Green Party, it is the seventh motion against the Bayrou government. It will be put to a vote by the parliamentarians early next week. 289 votes are required for its adoption. It therefore has very little chance of being adopted, due to a lack of support, even on the left.\n\n> ...\n\n> François Bayrou has already survived six motions of censure from the left: one following his general policy statement, four on the state and social security budgets, and the last one introduced in February by the Socialists to protest the influence of the far right.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 14, 2025, France's National Assembly passes a resolution of no-confidence under the stipulations of Article 49 of the [Constitution of France](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/France_2008#s246).", "fine_print": "The English term \"resolution of no-confidence\" should be understood to correspond with the French term \"*motion de censure*\" in the [French version](https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/sites/default/files/as/root/bank_mm/constitution/constitution.pdf) of the Constitution of France.", "post_id": 38416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752418106.360822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752418106.360822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.19570401857169797 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.164026615580493, 0.5295781724391592, 0.12874931591104752, 1.0323361294005466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.11714038930972, "peer_score": 12.840050877242962, "coverage": 0.9792364309623669, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792364309623669, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 88.11714038930972, "peer_archived_score": 12.840050877242962, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_49_of_the_French_Constitution#Vote_of_no_confidence_\\(49.2\\)): \n\n> A vote of no confidence (*censure*) allows the National Assembly, on its own initiative, to force the government to resign. The vote's application and action by the parliament, in this regard, is an essential characteristic of any parliamentary system. De Gaulle, when inaugurated as prime minister under the Fourth Republic, promised he would include this procedure in the proposed reform of institutions. It was actually imposed by the Constitutional Law of 3 June 1958.\n\nLe Figaro (translated from French by Google): [LFI files a motion of censure against the government](https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/rejet-volontaire-de-la-loi-duplomb-lfi-depose-une-motion-de-censure-contre-le-gouvernement-20250530)\n\n> Members of parliament from La France Insoumise and the Green Party filed a motion of no confidence in François Bayrou's government on Friday, following the tactical rejection of a proposed agricultural law by the central bloc and the far right, denounced as a maneuver aimed \"at muzzling national representation.\" Submitted by 56 LFI members and two members of the Green Party, it is the seventh motion against the Bayrou government. It will be put to a vote by the parliamentarians early next week. 289 votes are required for its adoption. It therefore has very little chance of being adopted, due to a lack of support, even on the left.\n\n> ...\n\n> François Bayrou has already survived six motions of censure from the left: one following his general policy statement, four on the state and social security budgets, and the last one introduced in February by the Socialists to protest the influence of the far right." }, { "id": 38405, "title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "slug": "will-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-have-revenue-of-at-least-100b-in-2027", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T20:33:37.112162Z", "published_at": "2025-07-07T11:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:53.618183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:49.421069Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37679, "title": "Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T20:33:37.112633Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-07-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n\nSection 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n\n> We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n\n| | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n| ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n| Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n| Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n| Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n| Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n\n***\n\nAI 2027 notes some key factors:\n\n* *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n* *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n* *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n\n***\n\nSee also:\n\nFutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of OpenAI, DeepMind or Anthropic have an annualised revenue of at least \\$100 billion in 2027.", "fine_print": "For private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepMind as of June 2025), Metaculus will use the best available information and estimates at the time to determine if the \\$100 billion revenue criterion has been met and might delay resolution until July 2028.\n\nFor public companies, in the event any of the listed companies go public, official financial reporting will be used to resolve the question (e.g., UK Companies House or relevant reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)).\n\nShould all three companies cease to exist this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762466862.682403, "end_time": 1762636134.063, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762466862.682403, "end_time": 1762636134.063, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4916417237641717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5241070816719129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.882493535772869, 0.0, 0.1097200042361546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.12716653551049145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10735308454470605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007446731347793363, 0.5990421518185429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0381410222551186, 0.0, 0.013132200349270675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39904551975414176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12482514196188524, 0.48978511741558245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.03200658659753717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.112894271105404, 0.017210119101531127, 0.2992119338252941, 0.0, 1.200364093184276, 0.9216402175791861, 0.038142496490550196, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8290935845153283, 0.051651386754525144, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.09022908093720004, 0.028891524784903182, 0.0, 0.37031510694234127, 0.29082019413062954, 0.013291901200468375, 0.4603717695264606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6325843290265164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47369424720610914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.968393678338846 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 588, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n\nSection 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n\n> We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n\n| | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n| ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n| Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n| Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n| Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n| Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n\n***\n\nAI 2027 notes some key factors:\n\n* *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n* *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n* *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n\n***\n\nSee also:\n\nFutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)" }, { "id": 38404, "title": "Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-15-2025-will-geert-wilders-party-for-freedom-be-the-highest-polling-party-in-the-netherlands-by-at-least-5-points-according-to-politico", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T19:36:58.539637Z", "published_at": "2025-06-03T20:15:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.513455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-03T20:16:26.579249Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T15:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37678, "title": "Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T19:36:58.540122Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T15:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T15:36:57.425009Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wilders throws Dutch politics into turmoil with new elections now on the horizon](https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-wilders-coalition-withdraws-685e5ebe6b88313a0af68365fe741cd3)\n\n> THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Populist far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders plunged Dutch politics into turmoil Tuesday by withdrawing his party’s ministers from the ruling coalition in a dispute over a crackdown on migration. The remaining ministers will run a caretaker administration until new elections can be organized.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> Wilders’ decision comes days after conservative Karol Nawrocki was announced the winner of Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, a victory that suggests that Poland will likely take a more populist and nationalist path under its new president, who was backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.\n\n> It is not the first time Wilders has turned his back on power. He pledged his support to a minority government led by former Prime Minister Mark Rutte in 2010, but walked away less than two years later after a dispute about government austerity measures.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the Party for Freedom (PVV) is #1 in the polling averages, exceeding the 2nd place by 5 or more percentage points [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/netherlands/), after June 5, 2025 and before July 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "* The \"Smooth\" view of Politico's Poll of Polls for the Netherlands will be used.\n* The dates refer to the dates shown on the graph, and the question will resolve when July 15, 2025, or a later date is shown on the graph and the resolution sources is accessed by Metaculus.", "post_id": 38404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752538937.362876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752538937.362876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0254373770634117 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0479797552919012, 3.1095920654015305, 0.8944823903749313, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.62142834936239, "peer_score": 7.568071894383395, "coverage": 0.9968327624496671, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968327624496671, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 71.62142834936239, "peer_archived_score": 7.568071894383395, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wilders throws Dutch politics into turmoil with new elections now on the horizon](https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-wilders-coalition-withdraws-685e5ebe6b88313a0af68365fe741cd3)\n\n> THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Populist far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders plunged Dutch politics into turmoil Tuesday by withdrawing his party’s ministers from the ruling coalition in a dispute over a crackdown on migration. The remaining ministers will run a caretaker administration until new elections can be organized.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> Wilders’ decision comes days after conservative Karol Nawrocki was announced the winner of Poland’s weekend presidential runoff election, a victory that suggests that Poland will likely take a more populist and nationalist path under its new president, who was backed by U.S. President Donald Trump.\n\n> It is not the first time Wilders has turned his back on power. He pledged his support to a minority government led by former Prime Minister Mark Rutte in 2010, but walked away less than two years later after a dispute about government austerity measures." }, { "id": 38403, "title": "Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "short_title": "AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "url_title": "AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "slug": "ai-authored-paper-published-at-neurips-icml-or-iclr-before-2028", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:46:50.191958Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:50:26.067945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:35.487511Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T22:07:54.497644Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37677, "title": "Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:46:50.192323Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In their [timelines forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast), Eli Lifland, Nikola Jurkovic, and [3 professional forecasters from FutureSearch](http://futuresearch.ai/ai-2027) estimate when a superhuman coder will first be developed: \n\n| Eli's forecast (80% CI) | Nikola’s forecast (80% CI) | FutureSearch aggregate (80% CI) |\n| ----------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------- |\n| 2030 (2026 to >2050) | 2028 (2026 to 2040) | 2033 (2027 to >2050) |\n\nThen, in their [takeoff forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast), they forecast on how long it would take to develop a superhuman AI researcher, conditional on the superhuman coder being developed in March 2027. The AI 2027 team put this at 0.3 years (15% 0 years, 90th percentile 0.95 years), while the FutureSearch aggregate (n = 4) estimates it at: 0.55 years (0, 2.1).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, a paper has been published in one of the following conferences: \n\n* Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)\n* International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)\n* International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)\n\nwith an AI as one of the authors. \n\nThis will also resolve as **Yes** if the AI is not a credited author, but the authors of the paper state that an AI performed at least 40% of the work required to produce the paper or make an equivalent statement in the judgement of Metaculus.", "fine_print": "Statements that the AI did approximately half of the work or more will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nA statement that the AI wrote most of the code or the text will not suffice. The AI must have contributed some of the cognitive labor required when producing a paper, in the judgement of Metaculus, such as coming up with some of the ideas, designing the experiments, etc.", "post_id": 38403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198634.700485, "end_time": 1762530256.397, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198634.700485, "end_time": 1762530256.397, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7080236451121122 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9284652012709689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.10718991760008224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11693021616061994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8030213082030524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15522453240155062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021936199508452464, 0.0, 0.48978511741558245, 0.003650949509915334, 0.882493535772869, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.33061883121358565, 0.5879286433629269, 0.02464062427608051, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.06699056810456744, 2.0496182439535175, 0.22205743285900253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2265963619675646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9396406647936779, 0.0, 0.028449180174312277, 0.6398735870102283, 0.23954639433616837, 0.4248059214367047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.849069196814866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9385801238965745 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 531, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In their [timelines forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast), Eli Lifland, Nikola Jurkovic, and [3 professional forecasters from FutureSearch](http://futuresearch.ai/ai-2027) estimate when a superhuman coder will first be developed: \n\n| Eli's forecast (80% CI) | Nikola’s forecast (80% CI) | FutureSearch aggregate (80% CI) |\n| ----------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------- |\n| 2030 (2026 to >2050) | 2028 (2026 to 2040) | 2033 (2027 to >2050) |\n\nThen, in their [takeoff forecast](https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast), they forecast on how long it would take to develop a superhuman AI researcher, conditional on the superhuman coder being developed in March 2027. The AI 2027 team put this at 0.3 years (15% 0 years, 90th percentile 0.95 years), while the FutureSearch aggregate (n = 4) estimates it at: 0.55 years (0, 2.1)." }, { "id": 38400, "title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-publicly-criticize-amy-coney-barrett-before-july-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:45:06.996820Z", "published_at": "2025-06-03T20:12:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.481341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-03T20:13:07.808463Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T15:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37674, "title": "Will Donald Trump publicly criticize Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett before July 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T17:45:06.997309Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T15:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T15:29:53.887361Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Trump privately complains about Amy Coney Barrett and other Supreme Court justices he nominated](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/politics/amy-coney-barrett-justice-trump)\n\n> CNN — President Donald Trump has privately complained that the Supreme Court justices he appointed have not sufficiently stood behind his agenda, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations. But he has directed particular ire at Justice Amy Coney Barrett, his most recent appointee, one of the sources said.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> While the president has privately expressed his displeasure with Barrett, a source close to Trump insists he does not want to attack her publicly. In March, after Barrett voted against Trump’s plan to cut foreign aid, Trump declined to criticize her publicly, telling reporters at the time, “She’s a very good woman. She’s very smart, and I don’t know about people attacking her, I really don’t know.”\n\n> “He does truly respect the Supreme Court, so he doesn’t want to torch any of his appointees,” one senior White House official told CNN. “He’s called on them as a group to rein in the lower courts and do the right thing, but has intentionally not attacked any of the Justices by name.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 15, 2025, Donald Trump publicly criticizes Amy Coney Barrett. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with Barrett.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will consult media characterizations of Trump's comments on Barrett to aid in determining if criticism has occurred. Metaculus will assess multiple sources of various political leanings to aid in limiting bias in assessing whether Trump has publicly criticized Barrett.\n\n* A criticism must be public to count; indirect reports, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n* If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three Admins will vote on how the question should resolve, and may include resolving the question as **ambiguous**.\n\nAn example of public criticism that would count for purposes of this question would be Donald Trump's [post](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114471750357100883) on Truth Social about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell:\n\n> “Too Late” Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue. Other than that, I like him very much! Oil and Energy way down, almost all costs (groceries and “eggs”) down, virtually NO INFLATION, Tariff Money Pouring Into the U.S. — THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF “TOO LATE!” ENJOY!", "post_id": 38400, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752535688.674529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752535688.674529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05694037796828409 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.699775317597137, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.48497560398432, "peer_score": 9.480690727473888, "coverage": 0.9968699430346899, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968699430346899, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 71.48497560398432, "peer_archived_score": 9.480690727473888, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trump privately complains about Amy Coney Barrett and other Supreme Court justices he nominated](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/03/politics/amy-coney-barrett-justice-trump)\n\n> CNN — President Donald Trump has privately complained that the Supreme Court justices he appointed have not sufficiently stood behind his agenda, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversations. But he has directed particular ire at Justice Amy Coney Barrett, his most recent appointee, one of the sources said.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> While the president has privately expressed his displeasure with Barrett, a source close to Trump insists he does not want to attack her publicly. In March, after Barrett voted against Trump’s plan to cut foreign aid, Trump declined to criticize her publicly, telling reporters at the time, “She’s a very good woman. She’s very smart, and I don’t know about people attacking her, I really don’t know.”\n\n> “He does truly respect the Supreme Court, so he doesn’t want to torch any of his appointees,” one senior White House official told CNN. “He’s called on them as a group to rein in the lower courts and do the right thing, but has intentionally not attacked any of the Justices by name.”" }, { "id": 38399, "title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "short_title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "url_title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "slug": "will-the-yellowstones-supervolcano-erupt-before-2100", "author_id": 273349, "author_username": "Goldengram", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-03T15:31:53.834239Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T22:52:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.764521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T22:53:21.482126Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-12T22:52:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37673, "title": "Will the Yellowstone's supervolcano erupt before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-06-03T15:31:53.835039Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T22:52:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T22:52:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-16T22:52:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Yellowstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)'s last \"supereruption\" happened 630,000 years ago. The supervolcano has a rough eruption cycle of 600,000 - 800,000 years and [new](https://www.usgs.gov/news/state-news-release/new-study-reveals-insights-yellowstone-volcanic-systems-hidden-magma) [studies](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/msa/elements/article-abstract/4/1/35/137767/Monitoring-a-Supervolcano-in-Repose-Heat-and) [show](https://cmes.utah.edu/news/deeperyellowstonemagma.php) more magma than previously estimated, increasing concerns. However, while the system is currently geologically active, it shows [no signs](https://www.nsf.gov/news/will-yellowstone-supervolcano-erupt-our-lifetime) of imminent eruption. NASA has [proposed](https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-a-3-5bn-plan-to-save-the-planet-from-the-yellowstone-supervolcano) a \\$3.5 billion plan to cool it by extracting heat, but deep drilling could potentially disturb the caldera. A future eruption would have catastrophic global consequences on humanity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Yellowstone volcano erupts before January 1, 2100.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753016735.687236, "end_time": 1985115349.045845, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753016735.687236, "end_time": 1985115349.045845, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02355315244071253 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6643914387672947, 1.1422843548966757, 0.9498461109253233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Yellowstone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)'s last \"supereruption\" happened 630,000 years ago. The supervolcano has a rough eruption cycle of 600,000 - 800,000 years and [new](https://www.usgs.gov/news/state-news-release/new-study-reveals-insights-yellowstone-volcanic-systems-hidden-magma) [studies](https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/msa/elements/article-abstract/4/1/35/137767/Monitoring-a-Supervolcano-in-Repose-Heat-and) [show](https://cmes.utah.edu/news/deeperyellowstonemagma.php) more magma than previously estimated, increasing concerns. However, while the system is currently geologically active, it shows [no signs](https://www.nsf.gov/news/will-yellowstone-supervolcano-erupt-our-lifetime) of imminent eruption. NASA has [proposed](https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-has-a-3-5bn-plan-to-save-the-planet-from-the-yellowstone-supervolcano) a \\$3.5 billion plan to cool it by extracting heat, but deep drilling could potentially disturb the caldera. A future eruption would have catastrophic global consequences on humanity." }, { "id": 38362, "title": "Will Sudan ratify AfCFTA (the pan-African free trade agreement) before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sudan-ratify-afcfta-the-pan-african-free-trade-agreement-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:19:36.063745Z", "published_at": "2025-06-03T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.216722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": 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"visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37637, "title": "Will Gisele Kapterian win the Bradfield seat in the 2025 Australian parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:19:35.803821Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-04T19:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-04T19:11:44.616333Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-04T19:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, 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"status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": 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"spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T21:24:36.924580Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to July 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 38360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749132090.561955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749132090.561955, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9406357542786302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.2891734271633438, 1.0, 0.5965892957781368, 2.0566413615030195, 0.2392546405498639, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.37087581592519, "peer_score": 0.477409973158959, "coverage": 0.99172680963218, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99172680963218, "spot_peer_score": 1.3199774597884568, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 90.37087581592519, "peer_archived_score": 0.477409973158959, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.3199774597884568, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). 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