Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=780
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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36674, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744155182.141895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744155182.141895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3025460095430312 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36671, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.321748Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.019446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36102, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.321748Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T14:37:21.193577Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744129475.085758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744129475.085758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29870559006563463 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2905243231860233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36668, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.162553Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.720562Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T18:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36099, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.162553Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T18:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T18:13:40.606027Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36662, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:06.972232Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.846008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36093, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:06.972232Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T14:37:52.477397Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744068892.474503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744068892.474503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.40477072287129817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36494, "title": "Will the US Constitution be amended to enable a third presidential term by Nov 2028?", "short_title": "US Constitution allows third term by Nov 2028?", "url_title": "US Constitution allows third term by Nov 2028?", "slug": "us-constitution-allows-third-term-by-nov-2028", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T19:01:24.534321Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:12:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T09:39:53.564999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:13:30.059248Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:12:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35929, "title": "Will the US Constitution be amended to enable a third presidential term by Nov 2028?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T19:01:24.534754Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:12:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:12:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-13T15:12:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 22nd amendment to the [US Constitution](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/full-text) states: \"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.\"\n\nHowever, Donald Trump has [stated](https://apnews.com/article/trump-third-term-constitution-22nd-amendment-efba31be02ee96b0ef68b17fe89b7578) his desire to serve a third term. See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36454/will-donald-trump-take-action-in-2026-to-seek-a-third-presidential-term/) which asks whether during 2026 Trump will take concrete action toward enabling a third term. In order to achieve his goal, Trump will need to either amend the Constitution or to blatantly violate it. This question asks about whether he will succeed at the former.\n\nThe next presidential election is scheduled for the 7th November 2028.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if, by November 7th 2028, the United States Constitution has been amended to allow a president to serve a third term, and negative if otherwise. The amendment must take effect by that date, not merely be proposed. \n\nAlternatively, a Supreme Court ruling that a third term is legal under the existing text of the 22nd Amendment will also resolve this positively.", "fine_print": "Resolution depends only on whether the Constitution is amended or not. It is irrelevant as to whether Trump, Obama, or any other former president actually runs for a third term. \n\nResolution does not depend on the exact form of the amendment to the constitution - for example whether the 22nd amendment is repealed entirely, or simply changed to read 'three times' instead of 'twice'. \n\nIn the event of a dispute over whether or not a purported amendment to the Constitution is legally valid, moderators may delay resolution for up to two years in order to await the judgement of the Supreme Court. \n\nIf this question is resolved by a Supreme Court ruling that re-interprets the current text of the 22nd Amendment to permit a third term, the ruling must be made by the 7th November 2028. A ruling after that date, even with retroactive effect, doesn't count. ", "post_id": 36494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757756383.41528, "end_time": 1759256753.3235, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757756383.41528, "end_time": 1759256753.3235, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.061425047286950404 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7665302076182692, 0.630746789253424, 0.18444282413373944, 1.1428270277796013, 0.8559876180097327, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 22nd amendment to the [US Constitution](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/full-text) states: \"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.\"\n\nHowever, Donald Trump has [stated](https://apnews.com/article/trump-third-term-constitution-22nd-amendment-efba31be02ee96b0ef68b17fe89b7578) his desire to serve a third term. See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36454/will-donald-trump-take-action-in-2026-to-seek-a-third-presidential-term/) which asks whether during 2026 Trump will take concrete action toward enabling a third term. In order to achieve his goal, Trump will need to either amend the Constitution or to blatantly violate it. This question asks about whether he will succeed at the former.\n\nThe next presidential election is scheduled for the 7th November 2028." }, { "id": 36490, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "slug": "will-the-iras-amptc-start-requiring-domestic-materials", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:50:55.229180Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:03.894660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:36.187241Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35925, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:50:55.229557Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:28:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:28:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).", "fine_print": "Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**", "post_id": 36490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757723506.89496, "end_time": 1758475250.814, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757723506.89496, "end_time": 1758475250.814, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.13157555486557376 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.17225102177874435, 1.200050705131943, 0.09543546787520314, 0.10687792566038573, 0.9277858371259815, 1.7612468536169565, 1.1745453397358465, 2.601204399585589, 0.13294920078905473, 0.6118859766443934, 0.8745346897948159, 0.6363815305442225, 0.05148079025128712, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.6921301368136171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7965517069063007 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 300, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36488, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-itc-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:01:04.994498Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T07:58:45.194844Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:05.316693Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35923, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:01:04.994870Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Investment Tax Credits (ITC) described [26 U.S. Code § 48E](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-investment-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-48e/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those estabished by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for ITC only for specific categories of projects will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757723527.351381, "end_time": 1758032637.911, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757723527.351381, "end_time": 1758032637.911, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.12188102199073252 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.193547314389181, 1.0, 0.4897066015003315, 0.2697796653519432, 3.3401769236187207, 2.343722122909754, 0.7862032818053171, 0.5807897738564529, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.8927508051498111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0637801488395046, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27114422392158133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7396417846986983 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 309, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36487, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-ptc-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090222Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T07:51:53.585266Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:32.442501Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35922, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090572Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Production Tax Credits (PTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45Y](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-production-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45y/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those established by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for PTC only for specific categories will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757723500.872656, "end_time": 1758477236.196, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757723500.872656, "end_time": 1758477236.196, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1638159332228162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4527205456524616, 2.6057016278568126, 1.1069417250972606, 0.4449115449807313, 0.2948419370101297, 2.3456883374386956, 1.4114828061410698, 0.0551230934963162, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2680637275304547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11264589383926711, 0.053493066571363594, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.026918498752450472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5915086375725582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07084609038555967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902063238793004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7445660976288506 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 372, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36478, "title": "Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?", "short_title": "Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?", "url_title": "Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?", "slug": "wild-animal-infected-with-new-world-screwworm-in-the-us-before-2027", "author_id": 114172, "author_username": "Liedholm", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-05T15:00:19.379998Z", "published_at": "2025-04-12T02:32:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.871161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-12T02:35:29.188381Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-13T02:32:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 35871, "title": "Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-04-05T15:00:19.380408Z", "open_time": "2025-04-13T02:32:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T02:32:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T02:32:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "* [According to APHIS](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm/outbreak-central-america), the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.\n* Climate change [seems to be contributing](https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12046) to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.\n* See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request) for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.\n* An identical question on Manifold can be found [here](https://manifold.markets/Liedholm/will-a-wild-animal-be-infected-with).\n* A previous outbreak took place [among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/nws-epi-report.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 00:00 GMT on January 1, 2027, a United States government agency, such as the USDA-APHIS, confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the [contiguous United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contiguous_United_States) has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax). Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only infections in free-ranging wild animals will be considered. Infections in humans, pets, livestock, or any animals that are captive or confined are excluded. Infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) are counted.", "post_id": 36478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756124211.465167, "end_time": 1758275715.552, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756124211.465167, "end_time": 1758275715.552, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.45711218517607083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.8857484897109563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "* [According to APHIS](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm/outbreak-central-america), the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.\n* Climate change [seems to be contributing](https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12046) to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.\n* See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request) for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.\n* An identical question on Manifold can be found [here](https://manifold.markets/Liedholm/will-a-wild-animal-be-infected-with).\n* A previous outbreak took place [among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/nws-epi-report.pdf)." }, { "id": 36461, "title": "Will minimum staffing standards for Long-Term Care Facilities of 3.48 hours per resident per day be in effect before May 11, 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Nursing Home Minimum Staffing Final Rule be in effect", "url_title": "Will the Nursing Home Minimum Staffing Final Rule be in effect", "slug": "will-the-nursing-home-minimum-staffing-final-rule-be-in-effect", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-05T00:46:04.637004Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:29:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T18:10:28.884895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:29:54.246023Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-05-11T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35850, "title": "Will minimum staffing standards for Long-Term Care Facilities of 3.48 hours per resident per day be in effect before May 11, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-04-05T00:46:04.637439Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:29:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:29:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-05-11T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 21, 2024, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under the administration of President Joe Biden published a [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf) requiring non-rural long-term care (LTC) facilities participating in Medicare or Medicaid to provide a minimum of 3.48 total nurse staffing hours per resident day by May 10, 2027. Additionally, by May 2026 the rule requires facilities to have a registered nurse on site 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. \n\nA University of Pennsylvania study [calculated](https://medicareadvocacy.org/analysis-nursing-home-nurse-staffing-rule-would-save-13000-lives-each-year/) that the rule, once fully implemented, would save 13,000 lives per year. There are over [1.2 million](https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0\\&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D) Americans living in LTC facilities, and most of the facilities did not have enough staff to comply with the new rule, which would require hiring tens of thousands of new staff members across the US added to their payrolls, an average of 2 new full-time workers per facility. [According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/24/1246628171/nursing-home-staffing-final-rule-medicare-medicaid#:~:text=,one%20being%20taken%20care%20of): \n\n> Democrats praised the rules, though some said the administration did not go nearly far enough. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Health Subcommittee, said the changes were \"modest improvements\" but that \"much more is needed to ensure sufficient care and resident safety.\" A Republican senator from Nebraska, Deb Fischer, said the rule would \"devastate nursing homes across the country and worsen the staffing shortages we are already facing.\"\n\n> Advocates for nursing home residents have been pressing CMS for years to adopt a higher standard than what it ultimately settled on. A CMS-commissioned [study in 2001 found](https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf) that the quality of care improved with increases of staff up to a level of 4.1 hours per resident per day — nearly a fifth higher than what CMS will require.\n\nNursing home and LTC facility industry groups immediately opposed the rule, with the American Health Care Association [saying](https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Nursing-Homes-React-to-Staffing-Mandate-Final-Rule.aspx), \"We are extremely disappointed and troubled that the Biden Administration is resolved to issue this unfunded staffing mandate.\" \n\nAdditionally, Republican politicians have vowed to kill the new rule, with multiple bills introduced to repeal it. According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5033563-nursing-home-staffing-rule-repeal-expected/), there are at least three mechanisms by which the staffing rule could be stopped:\n\n1. Legislation passed in Congress, including through the budget and appropriation process, which requires only a simple majority due to Senate Reconciliation rules.\n2. Being overturned by courts.\n3. CMS under the new Donald Trump administration could roll back or eliminate the rule.\n\nNotably, on April 3, 2025, government lawyers working for the Department of Justice under the Trump Administration [filed a strong defense](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/trumps-doj-voices-support-for-biden-nursing-home-staffing-rule) of the minimum staffing rule in a court case that was seeking to overturn it, which indicates President Trump might support the requirement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on any date before May 11, 2027, a majority of non-rural Medicare and Medicaid certified Long-Term Care (LTC) facilities in the United States are legally required, by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) rules or otherwise, to provide a minimum of 3.48 or more total nurse staffing hours per resident day (HPRD) of nursing care. Question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), especially any announcements by CMS or any other government agency with the authority to establish the staffing standard. If a national minimum staffing rule has not gone into effect before that date, for any reason, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess CMS's definitions or methodologies, and this question will resolve based on whether its requirements for LTC facilities minimum staffing are implemented before the resolution date. Regarding the main metric of HPRD, according to page 6 of CMS's [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf): \n\n> We are defining “hours per resident day” as staffing hours per resident per day which is the total number of hours worked by each type of staff divided by the total number of residents as calculated by CMS.\n\nThis question will resolve regardless of whether the minimum staffing requirement is being enforced. ", "post_id": 36461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757746306.532, "end_time": 1757784259.439221, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757746306.532, "end_time": 1757784259.439221, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04262326457040978 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9664219164393629, 2.3482275298970876, 2.6896384831867355, 5.147984506845191, 0.15746422952822248, 0.6990629151337724, 0.0, 0.053867135498436976, 0.04312565778056248, 0.2067812105468788, 0.4290053460913098, 0.0, 0.14101079145771606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4676110092672276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006942996711877092, 0.03041962011451429, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.03428208313918389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013580120065969772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004609180846326192, 0.0, 0.0036399945089534095, 0.2441462304119552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011637816435880369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334548102400622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368792724304404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001339079145820899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 21, 2024, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under the administration of President Joe Biden published a [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf) requiring non-rural long-term care (LTC) facilities participating in Medicare or Medicaid to provide a minimum of 3.48 total nurse staffing hours per resident day by May 10, 2027. Additionally, by May 2026 the rule requires facilities to have a registered nurse on site 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. \n\nA University of Pennsylvania study [calculated](https://medicareadvocacy.org/analysis-nursing-home-nurse-staffing-rule-would-save-13000-lives-each-year/) that the rule, once fully implemented, would save 13,000 lives per year. There are over [1.2 million](https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0\\&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D) Americans living in LTC facilities, and most of the facilities did not have enough staff to comply with the new rule, which would require hiring tens of thousands of new staff members across the US added to their payrolls, an average of 2 new full-time workers per facility. [According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/24/1246628171/nursing-home-staffing-final-rule-medicare-medicaid#:~:text=,one%20being%20taken%20care%20of): \n\n> Democrats praised the rules, though some said the administration did not go nearly far enough. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Health Subcommittee, said the changes were \"modest improvements\" but that \"much more is needed to ensure sufficient care and resident safety.\" A Republican senator from Nebraska, Deb Fischer, said the rule would \"devastate nursing homes across the country and worsen the staffing shortages we are already facing.\"\n\n> Advocates for nursing home residents have been pressing CMS for years to adopt a higher standard than what it ultimately settled on. A CMS-commissioned [study in 2001 found](https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf) that the quality of care improved with increases of staff up to a level of 4.1 hours per resident per day — nearly a fifth higher than what CMS will require.\n\nNursing home and LTC facility industry groups immediately opposed the rule, with the American Health Care Association [saying](https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Nursing-Homes-React-to-Staffing-Mandate-Final-Rule.aspx), \"We are extremely disappointed and troubled that the Biden Administration is resolved to issue this unfunded staffing mandate.\" \n\nAdditionally, Republican politicians have vowed to kill the new rule, with multiple bills introduced to repeal it. According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5033563-nursing-home-staffing-rule-repeal-expected/), there are at least three mechanisms by which the staffing rule could be stopped:\n\n1. Legislation passed in Congress, including through the budget and appropriation process, which requires only a simple majority due to Senate Reconciliation rules.\n2. Being overturned by courts.\n3. CMS under the new Donald Trump administration could roll back or eliminate the rule.\n\nNotably, on April 3, 2025, government lawyers working for the Department of Justice under the Trump Administration [filed a strong defense](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/trumps-doj-voices-support-for-biden-nursing-home-staffing-rule) of the minimum staffing rule in a court case that was seeking to overturn it, which indicates President Trump might support the requirement." }, { "id": 36459, "title": "Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a \"Current Policy\" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?", "short_title": "Will TCJA personal tax cuts extend via Senate reconciliation w/ current policy?", "url_title": "Will TCJA personal tax cuts extend via Senate reconciliation w/ current policy?", "slug": "will-tcja-personal-tax-cuts-extend-via-senate-reconciliation-w-current-policy", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-04T13:20:59.360497Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:33:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.083080Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T19:38:19.076352Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T08:02:04.584572Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35848, "title": "Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a \"Current Policy\" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?", "created_at": "2025-04-04T13:20:59.360858Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:33:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-15T18:33:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-09T21:28:09.706802Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several tax cuts for individuals from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire at the end of 2025. If these expire, most tax brackets would rise, as detailed by the[ <u>Tax Foundation</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/). The standard deduction, which doubled under the TCJA, would be cut in half (with certain inflation adjustments) if the provision were to sunset.\n\nSenate Republicans want to make these TCJA tax cuts permanent, while Democrats generally oppose this citing budget deficit concerns. The Senate's filibuster rules typically require 60 votes for legislation, meaning in a 53-47 chamber, most bills need support from 7 Democrats. Budget reconciliation offers a path around this, allowing passage with a simple majority.\n\nHowever, reconciliation bills that increase the deficit face complications under Senate rules. The traditional approach uses a \"current law baseline,\" which assumes scheduled tax cuts will expire. Republicans are pursuing a \"current policy baseline\" alternative, which assumes tax cuts would be extended and therefore have no substantial budgetary effect.\n\nThis alternative approach requires approval within the Senate's procedural framework. If rejected, Republicans might either challenge Senate traditions to push it through anyway or extend the tax cuts temporarily rather than permanently. At the time of this question,[ <u>The Hill</u>](https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4651531-gop-trump-tax-cuts-deficits-parliamentarian/) reports that Republicans might move forward on a current policy baseline without waiting for procedural rulings.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before October 1, 2025, any of the individual tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (as listed in the Fine Print) are extended via enactment of a reconciliation bill that used a \"current policy\" baseline in the Senate's budget reconciliation process, as reported by credible sources.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if both a reconciliation bill for spending and a reconciliation bill for revenue are enacted (either as separate bills or a combined bill) before the question has resolved as **Yes**, or if October 1, 2025 is reached without such an extension.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 2017 individual tax cuts that count for a positive resolution are at least one of the following four items, as detailed at the[ <u>Internal Revenue Service page Tax Reform Provisions that Affect Individuals</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-reform-provisions-that-affect-individuals):\n\n1. The changes in tax rates and/or tax brackets introduced by the TCJA.\n2. The increased standard deduction.\n3. The increased maximum Child Tax Credit and/or increased income threshold at which the credit begins to phase out.\n4. The increased basic exclusion amount for the Estate and Gift Tax.\n\nNo other provisions will count, even if they benefit individuals. For example, if the 20% qualified business income deductions for sole proprietorships are made permanent using a current policy baseline, it will not count since it is not listed.", "post_id": 36459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752082992.992479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752082992.992479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8761195160642811 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08300594337036615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03341512255428215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.012156317823425493, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7786222306639689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7978398946894734, 0.1551539486306374, 0.06871034895382641, 1.357140748867511, 0.0, 0.5897651965739195, 0.9150840798804445, 0.5572181865755963, 1.165747790574091, 0.0, 1.2760089982633662, 0.879817146123457, 1.994703977537624, 0.2807683892230446, 0.0, 0.7277160936243963, 0.0, 0.6326680595244999, 0.0, 1.3947240159558894 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.39423276869084, "peer_score": 6.699301795071051, "coverage": 0.5193729450867143, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990983061065003, "spot_peer_score": 11.852547588521254, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 33.39423276869084, "peer_archived_score": 6.699301795071051, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.852547588521254, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 205, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Several tax cuts for individuals from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire at the end of 2025. If these expire, most tax brackets would rise, as detailed by the[ <u>Tax Foundation</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/). The standard deduction, which doubled under the TCJA, would be cut in half (with certain inflation adjustments) if the provision were to sunset.\n\nSenate Republicans want to make these TCJA tax cuts permanent, while Democrats generally oppose this citing budget deficit concerns. The Senate's filibuster rules typically require 60 votes for legislation, meaning in a 53-47 chamber, most bills need support from 7 Democrats. Budget reconciliation offers a path around this, allowing passage with a simple majority.\n\nHowever, reconciliation bills that increase the deficit face complications under Senate rules. The traditional approach uses a \"current law baseline,\" which assumes scheduled tax cuts will expire. Republicans are pursuing a \"current policy baseline\" alternative, which assumes tax cuts would be extended and therefore have no substantial budgetary effect.\n\nThis alternative approach requires approval within the Senate's procedural framework. If rejected, Republicans might either challenge Senate traditions to push it through anyway or extend the tax cuts temporarily rather than permanently. At the time of this question,[ <u>The Hill</u>](https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4651531-gop-trump-tax-cuts-deficits-parliamentarian/) reports that Republicans might move forward on a current policy baseline without waiting for procedural rulings." }, { "id": 36427, "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?", "url_title": "Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?", "slug": "will-erdogan-remain-president-of-turkey-until-the-next-elections", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-01T10:38:08.570125Z", "published_at": "2025-04-01T14:10:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.978825Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-01T14:13:03.917177Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-02T14:10:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35829, "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?", "created_at": "2025-04-01T10:38:08.570576Z", "open_time": "2025-04-02T14:10:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-06T15:10:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-06T15:10:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 19th of March 2025, popular opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu [was arrested on suspicion of \"corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and supporting terrorism\". He was then sent to Marmara Prison on the 23rd of March 2025.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_of_Ekrem_%C4%B0mamo%C4%9Flu)\n\nThis has lead to [mass protests across the country, enraged at the current administration](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr52g356l41o), for not only this recent arrest, but also for the current administration's [handling of Turkey's economy](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-mass-protests-target-erdogans-grip-on-power/a-72088299). As a result, this itself has lead to the [Turkish economy getting hurt from all this political turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-companies-paying-bill-political-crisis-roils-economy-2025-03-28/).\n\nAs it seems that President Erdoğan and his administration are getting seen as unpopular, this leads to the question of if Erdoğan may decide to resign from the Presidency before the next election, or if this will lead to a second coup attempt against Erdoğan (the first time being during [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_attempt))?", "resolution_criteria": "If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continuously remains President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election this question resolves **YES**.\n\nIf Erdoğan does not continuously remain President of Turkey, for any reason, before the next Turkish presidential election has occurred, then this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "If Erdoğan is ousted through a coup, the position \"President of Turkey\" is removed or the Republic of Turkey does not exist anymore, this question will resolve as **NO**.\n\nThe election being held early will have no impact on this question, and the question may still resolve **YES** if Erdoğan holds office only until then.\n\nIf there is a serious dispute on who the President of Turkey is, and Erdoğan is one of the claimants, this question will only resolve **NO** when/if it is reported by credible sources that Erdoğan does not hold the powers of the President of Turkey.\n\nBrief intermittency of power such as during a surgery will not resolve this question, regardless of any serious dispute.", "post_id": 36427, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756057678.259066, "end_time": 1758351883.668, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756057678.259066, "end_time": 1758351883.668, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8856517848661583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8273775449670293, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1712818849538626, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.4452491845155188, 1.1522088248482922, 0.4874162928957498, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 1.316185369214727 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 19th of March 2025, popular opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu [was arrested on suspicion of \"corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and supporting terrorism\". He was then sent to Marmara Prison on the 23rd of March 2025.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_of_Ekrem_%C4%B0mamo%C4%9Flu)\n\nThis has lead to [mass protests across the country, enraged at the current administration](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr52g356l41o), for not only this recent arrest, but also for the current administration's [handling of Turkey's economy](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-mass-protests-target-erdogans-grip-on-power/a-72088299). As a result, this itself has lead to the [Turkish economy getting hurt from all this political turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-companies-paying-bill-political-crisis-roils-economy-2025-03-28/).\n\nAs it seems that President Erdoğan and his administration are getting seen as unpopular, this leads to the question of if Erdoğan may decide to resign from the Presidency before the next election, or if this will lead to a second coup attempt against Erdoğan (the first time being during [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_attempt))?" }, { "id": 36420, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-bilateral-ceasefire-in-the-russo-ukraine-conflict-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-01T02:58:30.492459Z", "published_at": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.374854Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35826, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-01T02:58:30.492459Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:41:41.246041Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. If no ceasefire has stood for 30 days before January 30, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.\r\n\r\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745192263.667564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745192263.667564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2700809549590803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.550284727283762, 0.0, 0.4925280170881631, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 2.708563677296965, 0.0, 0.7512051043271543, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 2.16474627536431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04604866032236176, 0.0, 1.3846166252874594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5805438574528169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 36416, "title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-strike-iran-by-the-end-of-may-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-31T17:42:16.544837Z", "published_at": "2025-03-31T18:40:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.308838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-31T18:41:03.039475Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35822, "title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-31T17:42:16.545237Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T22:09:14.961180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecasters from [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/), a team of top Samotsvety forecasters specialising in global catastrophes, on March 27, 2025, [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran) a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran in April:\n\n> The US military is **bringing** [**approximately six**](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904779250269298953)\\*\\*\\*\\* [**B-2 stealth bombers**](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/) **to a joint US-UK military base on** [**Diego Garcia**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia), an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), the largest of the US \"**bunker buster\" bombs** that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three [C-17 cargo aircraft](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529726/c-17-globemaster-iii/) have [flown to Diego Garcia](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904634535217680675) to support the B-2s, and one to support [KC-135 Stratotankers](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529736/kc-135-stratotanker/) that [refuel B-2s](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/); three additional C-17s have flown to Diego Garcia for unknown purposes. [Seven KC-135s and one other aircraft are parked](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904984950341861659) on Diego Garcia as of this writing.\n> \n> The current buildup of B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia is large and very unusual. It is possible that the bombers are staging for missions against the Houthis in Yemen, though this might not be the case for two reasons: First, the US conducted strikes against fortified underground targets in Yemen in [October 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-target-underground-houthi-weapons-storage-sites-yemen-2024-10-17/) and [January 2025](https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-targets-houthi-arms-facilities-red-sea-strikes-2011835), and while [more underground targets likely remain](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/04/yemens-houthis-are-going-underground/), a large mission to target underground Houthi locations seems like overkill. Second, for **the October 2024 airstrikes in Yemen, B-2s were** [**likely deployed directly from Missouri**](https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3975711/stealth-bombers-land-precision-strike-against-houthi-militia/)**, not Diego Garcia**, and [B-2s were not used](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-12-31/houthi-yemen-strikes-navy-air-force-16332097.html) in the January 2025 airstrikes; current preparations are much larger-scale and different.\n\nIn a later [blog post](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025) published on March 31, 2025, they revised their estimate after receiving additional information:\n\n> A pilot [wrote to us](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran/comment/103880279) to clarify that NOTAM timelines aren’t that reliable. Forecasters vary between already knowing this and thinking that the NOTAM might also be used to signal the seriousness of the timeline to Iran, and changing their minds a bit and thinking that a bombing beyond April would be less surprising. **We are now at a 25% chance (15% to 65%) of US/Israeli military action against nuclear weapons program targets in Iran by the end of May.** Our forecasters view US threats against Iran's nuclear program as analogous to pointing a gun at a car: the US is not threatening to invade Iran, only to damage facilities and assets that are important to it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 1, 2025, the United States carries out an attack within Iran, according to official announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The attack does not need to be against Iranian targets, but it has to be aimed at targets in Iranian territory. Iranian territory will be considered the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n* Cyberattacks will not resolve this question.\n* For this to resolve based on credible news sources, the sources have to present this as confirmed fact and not speculation or the most probable explanation.\n* In the case of ambiguous or conflicting information, Metaculus may wait up to 30 days to resolve the question, and will set the resolution date as the date of the attack as best estimated by Metaculus.", "post_id": 36416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748650907.681335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748650907.681335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.053253747660544797 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.156453555721514, 1.078327063655631, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6255699491346716, 0.3935277555318061, 0.21228082485103633, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.3375782871808938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.28620498600085, "peer_score": 10.421988876081176, "coverage": 0.9995004156735527, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995004156735527, "spot_peer_score": 7.450409327803616, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 85.28620498600085, "peer_archived_score": 10.421988876081176, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.450409327803616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecasters from [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/), a team of top Samotsvety forecasters specialising in global catastrophes, on March 27, 2025, [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran) a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran in April:\n\n> The US military is **bringing** [**approximately six**](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904779250269298953)\\*\\*\\*\\* [**B-2 stealth bombers**](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/) **to a joint US-UK military base on** [**Diego Garcia**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia), an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), the largest of the US \"**bunker buster\" bombs** that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three [C-17 cargo aircraft](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529726/c-17-globemaster-iii/) have [flown to Diego Garcia](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904634535217680675) to support the B-2s, and one to support [KC-135 Stratotankers](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529736/kc-135-stratotanker/) that [refuel B-2s](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/); three additional C-17s have flown to Diego Garcia for unknown purposes. [Seven KC-135s and one other aircraft are parked](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904984950341861659) on Diego Garcia as of this writing.\n> \n> The current buildup of B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia is large and very unusual. It is possible that the bombers are staging for missions against the Houthis in Yemen, though this might not be the case for two reasons: First, the US conducted strikes against fortified underground targets in Yemen in [October 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-target-underground-houthi-weapons-storage-sites-yemen-2024-10-17/) and [January 2025](https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-targets-houthi-arms-facilities-red-sea-strikes-2011835), and while [more underground targets likely remain](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/04/yemens-houthis-are-going-underground/), a large mission to target underground Houthi locations seems like overkill. Second, for **the October 2024 airstrikes in Yemen, B-2s were** [**likely deployed directly from Missouri**](https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3975711/stealth-bombers-land-precision-strike-against-houthi-militia/)**, not Diego Garcia**, and [B-2s were not used](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-12-31/houthi-yemen-strikes-navy-air-force-16332097.html) in the January 2025 airstrikes; current preparations are much larger-scale and different.\n\nIn a later [blog post](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025) published on March 31, 2025, they revised their estimate after receiving additional information:\n\n> A pilot [wrote to us](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran/comment/103880279) to clarify that NOTAM timelines aren’t that reliable. Forecasters vary between already knowing this and thinking that the NOTAM might also be used to signal the seriousness of the timeline to Iran, and changing their minds a bit and thinking that a bombing beyond April would be less surprising. **We are now at a 25% chance (15% to 65%) of US/Israeli military action against nuclear weapons program targets in Iran by the end of May.** Our forecasters view US threats against Iran's nuclear program as analogous to pointing a gun at a car: the US is not threatening to invade Iran, only to damage facilities and assets that are important to it." }, { "id": 36402, "title": "Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?", "short_title": "Fridtjof Nansen-class replacement decision before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Fridtjof Nansen-class replacement decision before Sep 2025?", "slug": "fridtjof-nansen-class-replacement-decision-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T18:26:57.129591Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.970470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T18:00:49Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T18:34:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35814, "title": "Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T18:26:57.130016Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T18:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-31T18:36:36.216900Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the Norwegian parliament [passed](https://www.thommessen.no/en/news/norwegian-parliament-approves-long-term-defense-funding-plan) a long-term [funding plan](https://www.forsvaret.no/aktuelt-og-presse/publikasjoner/forsvarets-langtidsplan) for the Norwegian Armed Forces amounting to NOK 611 billion. Part of this plan includes:\n\n> \\[procuring] a minimum of five new frigates equipped with anti-submarine helicopters, new submarines, and a standardized vessel class with up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels.\n\nThe five new frigates are considered to be the flagship of the funding plan and several nations are involved in negotiations for their design to be selected to replace Norway's ageing [Fridtjof Nansen-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fridtjof_Nansen-class_frigate).\n\nFour designs have been \"downselected\" by Norway:\n\n1. *T*[*ype 26-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_26_frigate) (BAE Systems, United Kingdom).\n2. [*Constellation-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation-class_frigate) (Fincantieri, United States).\n3. [*Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_and_intervention_frigate) (FDI) (Naval Group, France).\n4. [*Niedersachsen*-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F126_frigate) (F126) (Damen Group, Germany).\n\nAn announcement regarding the design is expected to occur in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Norwegian government officially announces it has selected a new frigate design before September 1, 2025, CET.", "fine_print": "The announcement need not name the selected design explicitly; confirmation that a selection has been made is sufficient.\n\nA statement that a design has been selected but is pending further parliamentary or cabinet approval will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nIf the Norwegian government officially announces that the programme to replace the Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates has been canceled or indefinitely deferred, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 36402, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749139088.462809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749139088.462809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7298956919546501 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.004297163761002799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053384367056441985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649682952973378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9920478540534396, 0.004788207941536495, 0.002567562607506935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11669616781663278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0666199395595711, 0.00466275598904929, 0.0031044370782578757, 0.029584164552788048, 0.0, 0.005054053945388742, 0.0, 0.01318912173696172, 0.0, 0.0752619547280123, 0.0001381996355704661, 0.0, 0.002821422112112083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.041328065837679756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017866702916235926, 0.0028068053031946112, 0.015236013164587956, 0.0, 0.0017706471602459382, 0.1120030514909969, 0.0, 0.010753084937238888, 0.0010678085286069262, 0.0, 0.09007843981497737, 0.027908695288531345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2054221346617558, 0.29041279246826146, 0.0, 0.05012485898363295, 0.010008111503974924, 0.0, 1.3924325093682564, 0.0241779814177198, 0.17271243172132983, 0.33551423870510994, 0.0, 0.6540038015153302, 0.6268263519034717, 0.9574925854671692, 0.44498215533956786, 0.10446072670974002, 3.766159953109077, 0.5872627437096594, 0.8773859148341077, 0.514111160174797, 0.0, 4.215490767746062, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4383398896158597, 0.0, 1.7875269812945578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14357473929480172, 0.5560185919021291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7105958360873026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.15169852634302, "peer_score": 24.85832117073569, "coverage": 0.999965659928294, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999965659928294, "spot_peer_score": 21.46999248430176, "spot_baseline_score": 23.87868595871165, "baseline_archived_score": 27.15169852634302, "peer_archived_score": 24.85832117073569, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.46999248430176, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.87868595871165 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1468, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the Norwegian parliament [passed](https://www.thommessen.no/en/news/norwegian-parliament-approves-long-term-defense-funding-plan) a long-term [funding plan](https://www.forsvaret.no/aktuelt-og-presse/publikasjoner/forsvarets-langtidsplan) for the Norwegian Armed Forces amounting to NOK 611 billion. Part of this plan includes:\n\n> \\[procuring] a minimum of five new frigates equipped with anti-submarine helicopters, new submarines, and a standardized vessel class with up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels.\n\nThe five new frigates are considered to be the flagship of the funding plan and several nations are involved in negotiations for their design to be selected to replace Norway's ageing [Fridtjof Nansen-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fridtjof_Nansen-class_frigate).\n\nFour designs have been \"downselected\" by Norway:\n\n1. *T*[*ype 26-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_26_frigate) (BAE Systems, United Kingdom).\n2. [*Constellation-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation-class_frigate) (Fincantieri, United States).\n3. [*Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_and_intervention_frigate) (FDI) (Naval Group, France).\n4. [*Niedersachsen*-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F126_frigate) (F126) (Damen Group, Germany).\n\nAn announcement regarding the design is expected to occur in 2025." }, { "id": 36399, "title": "Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?", "short_title": "Revolut fully fledged UK banking licence before July 26, 2025?", "url_title": "Revolut fully fledged UK banking licence before July 26, 2025?", "slug": "revolut-fully-fledged-uk-banking-licence-before-july-26-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T15:27:37.927133Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.074747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T17:55:09Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T21:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T14:14:40.078284Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35809, "title": "Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T15:27:37.927501Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T21:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-26T21:28:07.794168Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is valued at over \\$100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, originating in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut first obtained [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). On July 25, 2024, Revolut was [awarded](https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_receives_uk_banking_licence/) a UK banking license which was a significant milestone for the company, ending a three-year wait.\n\nThe license awarded by the Prudential Regulation Authority with restrictions (commonly referred to as a provisional license) whilst the bank goes through a so-called \"mobilisation phase\" which a Bloomberg [article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/revolut-hiring-hundreds-to-become-a-fully-fledged-uk-bank) summarises:\n\n> The “mobilization phase” is a common step for many new entrants in the UK, with rivals including Monzo Bank Ltd., Starling Bank Ltd. and Atom Bank Plc going through the process previously. Revolut has been able to trial and run critical banking systems with around 30 customers that have combined deposits of £50,000, Carlesi said.\n\nThe same article suggests that the mobilisation stage is likely to conclude by July:\n\n> The regulator normally expects this stage to conclude within 12 months, meaning Revolut would become a fully fledged bank by July. Once the regulator gives the green light, Revolut will be able to migrate its millions of UK customers from its electronic money institution to its UK bank entity — Revolut NewCo UK Ltd.\n\n***\n\n*Background adapted from* [*Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21860/revolut-banking-licence/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) announces that Revolut has received a full UK banking license before July 26, 2025, GMT.", "fine_print": "Other credible sources may be used instead of the Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), so long as the sources are explicit in stating Revolut has received a full UK banking license.", "post_id": 36399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750030069.859063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750030069.859063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5164097090460603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0037979036519217007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042801998755228096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001090203602827936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13418758249782997, 0.7173341350777269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.509669388629438, 0.0, 0.028831072191564586, 0.0, 0.1423069883635154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05324043471794, 0.8084307865251847, 0.04049585662196554, 0.47395247677544455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021311080201875176, 0.0, 0.25262039147455656, 0.07860647117334726, 0.0, 1.34354092929074, 0.06693011442076319, 0.2316752153078092, 0.02912962557589681, 0.0, 1.1775161956417322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8939847504855649, 0.3599167143423097, 0.0, 0.012322777007463166, 0.6317790873561886, 2.089629570451062, 0.8838131193539324, 0.6054267177388786, 3.6927441333251805e-05, 0.0, 0.7844909650331349, 1.351858684537435, 1.1914673604610821, 0.0, 1.247430613254091, 0.025666930402785032, 0.6252651779727192, 0.03436898683173223, 0.06589302829675463, 0.7347152630898555, 0.5424277859139788, 0.9775363140310391, 0.0010328227133211084, 0.0, 0.6877044928425908, 1.2391462415588896, 0.0015616802263089407, 0.0, 0.00840420369040725, 0.0, 0.6590146172472763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000670440143834785, 0.0625008899165032, 0.392419233010581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017594889196372114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0342251423215965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6141755152318691 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.232669923604394, "peer_score": 25.924071517987073, "coverage": 0.9999916322937136, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999916322937136, "spot_peer_score": 3.5424415909817255, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": -28.232669923604394, "peer_archived_score": 25.924071517987073, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5424415909817255, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1583, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is valued at over \\$100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, originating in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut first obtained [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). On July 25, 2024, Revolut was [awarded](https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_receives_uk_banking_licence/) a UK banking license which was a significant milestone for the company, ending a three-year wait.\n\nThe license awarded by the Prudential Regulation Authority with restrictions (commonly referred to as a provisional license) whilst the bank goes through a so-called \"mobilisation phase\" which a Bloomberg [article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/revolut-hiring-hundreds-to-become-a-fully-fledged-uk-bank) summarises:\n\n> The “mobilization phase” is a common step for many new entrants in the UK, with rivals including Monzo Bank Ltd., Starling Bank Ltd. and Atom Bank Plc going through the process previously. Revolut has been able to trial and run critical banking systems with around 30 customers that have combined deposits of £50,000, Carlesi said.\n\nThe same article suggests that the mobilisation stage is likely to conclude by July:\n\n> The regulator normally expects this stage to conclude within 12 months, meaning Revolut would become a fully fledged bank by July. Once the regulator gives the green light, Revolut will be able to migrate its millions of UK customers from its electronic money institution to its UK bank entity — Revolut NewCo UK Ltd.\n\n***\n\n*Background adapted from* [*Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21860/revolut-banking-licence/)" }, { "id": 36398, "title": "Will Russia's population be less than 140 million before 2035?", "short_title": "Russia's population less than 140 million before 2035?", "url_title": "Russia's population less than 140 million before 2035?", "slug": "russias-population-less-than-140-million-before-2035", "author_id": 267891, "author_username": "Vlad_U", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T13:30:55.040897Z", "published_at": "2025-04-06T02:55:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.403660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-06T02:58:29.006751Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-07T02:55:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35808, "title": "Will Russia's population be less than 140 million before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T13:30:55.041436Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T02:55:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T02:55:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-11T02:55:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Total Fertility Rate is a coefficient denoting the average number of children born per woman per whole lifetime. To keep the population from decreasing, it must be greater than 2.1.\n\n[According to Rosstat](https://rosstat.gov.ru/compendium), the population of Russia on January 1, 2025 is 146.1 million people. For the last 3 years the population of the country has been steadily decreasing; since 2021 it has decreased by 1 million.\n\nAlso [according to Rosstat](https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/03/2024/66014d649a79476bc9717e3e) data for 2023 the total birth rate was 1.4, and this rate has been steadily decreasing since 2014; only 2 regions of Russia out of 89 for 2023 had TFR more than 2.1.\n\nIn 2023 [Rosstat published](https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/220709) its own demographic forecast of the population of Russia until 2046, it believes that by January 1, 2046 in Russia will live 138.77 million people and the total fertility rate will be 1.663.\n\nUN forecast of global FTR based on 2013 and 2024:\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if at any time before January 1st 2035, Rosstat publishes an estimate of Russia's current population as less than 140 million people.\n\nOtherwise this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "If this information is no longer published by Rosstat atleast once a year, an alternative source may be used as determined by Metaculus.", "post_id": 36398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751396319.634767, "end_time": 1812841884.127, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751396319.634767, "end_time": 1812841884.127, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8168495543823356 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5713680770573366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.508669837089197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Total Fertility Rate is a coefficient denoting the average number of children born per woman per whole lifetime. To keep the population from decreasing, it must be greater than 2.1.\n\n[According to Rosstat](https://rosstat.gov.ru/compendium), the population of Russia on January 1, 2025 is 146.1 million people. For the last 3 years the population of the country has been steadily decreasing; since 2021 it has decreased by 1 million.\n\nAlso [according to Rosstat](https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/03/2024/66014d649a79476bc9717e3e) data for 2023 the total birth rate was 1.4, and this rate has been steadily decreasing since 2014; only 2 regions of Russia out of 89 for 2023 had TFR more than 2.1.\n\nIn 2023 [Rosstat published](https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/220709) its own demographic forecast of the population of Russia until 2046, it believes that by January 1, 2046 in Russia will live 138.77 million people and the total fertility rate will be 1.663.\n\nUN forecast of global FTR based on 2013 and 2024:\n\n" }, { "id": 36395, "title": "[Practice] Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-the-trump-administration-impose-new-tariffs-on-the-eu-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T04:35:20.153101Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.612520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35800, "title": "[Practice] Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T04:35:20.153101Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T15:47:34.803370Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\r\n\r\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs that apply to imports from all EU member states take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\r\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**. The tariffs can target other states besides EU members.\r\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\r\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 36395, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743469357.897275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743469357.897275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.7096191461236763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\r\n\r\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 36391, "title": "Will a major streaming platform publicly confirm the use of a GNN-based recommendation system before 2026?", "short_title": "Major platform GNN recommender by end of 2025?", "url_title": "Major platform GNN recommender by end of 2025?", "slug": "major-platform-gnn-recommender-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 267864, "author_username": "angelovad03", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:18:38.868843Z", "published_at": "2025-03-29T19:07:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:05:14.874068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-29T19:09:58.411848Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-30T19:07:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35796, "title": "Will a major streaming platform publicly confirm the use of a GNN-based recommendation system before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:18:38.869171Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T19:07:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-03T19:07:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-03T19:07:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a specialized form of deep learning designed to process data with complex relationships, represented as nodes and edges in a graph. They have gained popularity for capturing intricate patterns in user-item interaction data, making them a promising approach for recommendation systems. However, large-scale industrial deployment of GNN-based recommenders remains limited due to technical challenges, implementation costs, and production complexities.\n\nMore resources on GNNs:\n\n[A Gentle Introduction to Graph Neural Networks](https://distill.pub/2021/gnn-intro)\n\n[Stanford CS224W: Machine Learning with Graphs](https://cs224w.stanford.edu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if a major streaming platform issues a public confirmation that it uses Graph Neural Networks for its recommendation system. Otherwise it will resolve No.\n\n1. A “major streaming platform” is defined as any video streaming service with at least 50 million paying subscribers by the resolution date.\n2. Public confirmation must be an official announcement from the platform such as an engineering blog post, press release, or a published interview with a senior engineer or executive stating they use Graph Neural Networks for their production recommendation feature.", "fine_print": "If a platform uses GNNs privately without any official announcement or interview, this question will remain unresolved.\n\nExperimental or research-only usage does not qualify unless it is a part of the live, production recommendation system. ", "post_id": 36391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753050161.804061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753050161.804061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.24595780843190554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a specialized form of deep learning designed to process data with complex relationships, represented as nodes and edges in a graph. They have gained popularity for capturing intricate patterns in user-item interaction data, making them a promising approach for recommendation systems. However, large-scale industrial deployment of GNN-based recommenders remains limited due to technical challenges, implementation costs, and production complexities.\n\nMore resources on GNNs:\n\n[A Gentle Introduction to Graph Neural Networks](https://distill.pub/2021/gnn-intro)\n\n[Stanford CS224W: Machine Learning with Graphs](https://cs224w.stanford.edu/)" } ] }
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