Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=80
{ "count": 6208, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "results": [ { "id": 40210, "title": "Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?", "short_title": "US bailout Argentina 2025?", "url_title": "US bailout Argentina 2025?", "slug": "us-bailout-argentina-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:30.319852Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T17:00:00.470054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:30.699297Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T22:51:49.879750Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T22:51:49.879750Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39747, "title": "Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:30.320268Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n\nIn the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n\nDuring Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n\nPrior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n\nIn September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n\n* Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n* Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n* Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40210, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759337944.169715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759337944.169715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5006394568353368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n\nIn the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n\nDuring Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n\nPrior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n\nIn September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572}}`" }, { "id": 40204, "title": "Will 'Tron: Ares' domestic opening weekend (10/10-10/12) gross exceed $44 million?", "short_title": "Will 'Tron: Ares' domestic opening weekend gross exceed $44 million?", "url_title": "Will 'Tron: Ares' domestic opening weekend gross exceed $44 million?", "slug": "will-tron-ares-domestic-opening-weekend-gross-exceed-44-million", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:46:12.699939Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:54:00.051394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T17:50:06.848241Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 39741, "title": "Will 'Tron: Ares' domestic opening weekend (10/10-10/12) gross exceed $44 million?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:46:12.700379Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T17:47:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T17:47:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T03:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-14T14:54:00.017907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Tron: Ares*, the third installment in the sci-fi franchise, is set for release on October 10, 2025. Its predecessor, *Tron: Legacy* (2010), opened to \\$44 million domestically on a \\$170 million budget. The 3-day opening weekend box office (Friday-Sunday) is the key indicator of a film's launch. A gross over \\$\\$44 million would signal strong audience interest and position the film for financial success against its large production budget.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves based on the \"Weekend\" domestic box office gross for *Tron: Ares* for the dates of **October 10-12, 2025**. The definitive source will be the official figures reported by industry-standard trackers like **Box Office Mojo** or **The Numbers**, which are typically finalized on the Monday following the opening. The question resolves as **Yes** if the final reported gross is greater than \\$44,000,000. It resolves as **No** if the gross is \\$44,000,000 or less.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40204, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759972958.159527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759972958.159527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4017423044084179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0850852473442398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.9916317514889486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9707539148649986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997747470371544, "peer_score": 69.82002051823503, "coverage": 0.997747470371544, "baseline_score": 22.10787152119369, "spot_peer_score": 66.53004717230112, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 69.82002051823503, "baseline_archived_score": 22.10787152119369, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.53004717230112, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Tron: Ares*, the third installment in the sci-fi franchise, is set for release on October 10, 2025. Its predecessor, *Tron: Legacy* (2010), opened to \\$44 million domestically on a \\$170 million budget. The 3-day opening weekend box office (Friday-Sunday) is the key indicator of a film's launch. A gross over \\$\\$44 million would signal strong audience interest and position the film for financial success against its large production budget." }, { "id": 40202, "title": "Will D4vd named as a suspect in a murder investigation by Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "short_title": "Will musician D4vd be named a suspect in a murder investigation by Oct 10?", "url_title": "Will musician D4vd be named a suspect in a murder investigation by Oct 10?", "slug": "will-musician-d4vd-be-named-a-suspect-in-a-murder-investigation-by-oct-10", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:22:00.917929Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:55:30.636298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T17:23:51.252725Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T14:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T14:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 39739, "title": "Will D4vd named as a suspect in a murder investigation by Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:22:00.918289Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T17:22:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T17:22:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-14T14:55:30.604073Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T14:21:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T14:21:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "David Anthony Burke, known professionally as D4vd, is an American singer and songwriter who gained significant fame with viral hits like \"Romantic Homicide\" and \"Here With Me.\" As a public figure, his activities are subject to media scrutiny. For this question to resolve as \"Yes,\" a law enforcement agency would need to formally and publicly identify D4vd as a suspect in a homicide case.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved based on official, public information from law enforcement and reputable news sources.\n\n1. **Defining the Event:** \"Named as a suspect\" requires an official, public statement or document from a law enforcement agency (e.g., local police, state police, FBI) with jurisdiction in a murder investigation that identifies David Anthony Burke (D4vd) as a suspect.\n2. **Resolution Source:** The primary source must be a public press release, official social media post, press conference, or court document from the relevant law enforcement agency.\n3. **Confirmation:** The official naming must be corroborated by reports in at least one major, reputable news organization (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, or a major local news affiliate in the relevant jurisdiction).\n4. **Exclusions:**\n * Unofficial rumors, speculation on social media, or tabloid reporting will not be sufficient for resolution.\n * Being identified as a \"person of interest,\" a witness, or being \"questioned in connection with\" a case is not the same as being named a \"suspect\" and will not cause this to resolve as \"Yes.\"\n5. **Time Window:** The official, public naming must occur before or at **12:00 PM (Noon) Eastern Time on October 10, 2025**.\n6. **Resolution Conditions:**\n * The question will resolve as **Yes** if David Anthony Burke (D4vd) is publicly named as a suspect in a murder investigation, according to all the criteria listed above, within the specified time window.\n * The question will resolve as **No** if the time window closes and he has not been publicly named as a suspect.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759700940.947173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759700940.947173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.31046902770260726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980357740374478, "peer_score": 20.94353851470002, "coverage": 0.9980357740374478, "baseline_score": 44.85626965765932, "spot_peer_score": 15.870698409661104, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 20.94353851470002, "baseline_archived_score": 44.85626965765932, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.870698409661104, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "David Anthony Burke, known professionally as D4vd, is an American singer and songwriter who gained significant fame with viral hits like \"Romantic Homicide\" and \"Here With Me.\" As a public figure, his activities are subject to media scrutiny. For this question to resolve as \"Yes,\" a law enforcement agency would need to formally and publicly identify D4vd as a suspect in a homicide case." }, { "id": 40200, "title": "Will Gemini 3 be released between September 30, 6:00 pm and Oct 14th, 12:00 pm?", "short_title": "Will Google announce Gemini 3 between now and Oct. 14 (Noon ET)?", "url_title": "Will Google announce Gemini 3 between now and Oct. 14 (Noon ET)?", "slug": "will-google-announce-gemini-3-between-now-and-oct-14-noon-et", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:15:10.980104Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T16:46:37.404052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T17:16:39.472874Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T17:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T14:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39737, "title": "Will Gemini 3 be released between September 30, 6:00 pm and Oct 14th, 12:00 pm?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:15:10.980460Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T17:15:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T17:15:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T17:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T14:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-14T16:46:37.366978Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T17:09:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T17:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google is in a cycle of rapid development and release for its flagship Gemini family of AI models, following the launch of Gemini 1.0 in late 2023 and the Gemini 1.5 series in early-to-mid 2024. The AI industry and developer community are keenly anticipating the next major version, presumably \"Gemini 3,\" which is expected to bring significant advancements in capability and efficiency.\n\n\n\nMajor model releases are significant strategic events for Google, and they are typically announced with considerable fanfare at scheduled events or via official blog posts. While there is constant speculation about the next big release, Google has not provided an official timeline. This forecast hinges on whether Google will make a formal, public announcement of Gemini 3, including variants like \"Pro\" or \"Flash\", within a very specific two-week window in the fall of 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved based on official, public announcements from Google within the specified time frame.\n\n1. **Defining the Event:** The event is the official, intentional, and public announcement of a new generation of AI models explicitly named \"Gemini 3.\" The announcement of a model named \"Gemini 3 Pro\" or \"Gemini 3 Flash\" will also satisfy this condition.\n2. **Resolution Source:** The announcement must appear in a formal blog post on an official Google domain, such as the Google AI Blog (ai.google/blog/) or The Keyword (blog.google/).\n3. **Defining the Time Window:** The timestamp on the official blog post must be on or after **6:00 PM Eastern Time on September 30, 2025**, and no later than **12:00 PM (Noon) Eastern Time on October 14, 2025**.\n4. **Exclusions:**\n * Information released via unofficial leaks, media reports citing anonymous sources, or personal social media accounts of employees will **not** be sufficient.\n * A broken or quickly deleted link to a pre-release beta or a draft of an announcement will **not** count. The post must be a deliberate, public release.\n5. **Resolution Conditions:**\n * The question will resolve as **Yes** if a blog post meeting all the criteria above is published by Google within the specified time window.\n * The question will resolve as **No** if 12:00 PM ET on October 14, 2025, passes and no such announcement has been made on the specified official channels.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759700974.839148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759700974.839148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.22415434587838717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9937042483818023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968319338800693, "peer_score": 8.24334241986085, "coverage": 0.9968319338800693, "baseline_score": 63.91899310067794, "spot_peer_score": 8.019097618399567, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 8.24334241986085, "baseline_archived_score": 63.91899310067794, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.019097618399567, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google is in a cycle of rapid development and release for its flagship Gemini family of AI models, following the launch of Gemini 1.0 in late 2023 and the Gemini 1.5 series in early-to-mid 2024. The AI industry and developer community are keenly anticipating the next major version, presumably \"Gemini 3,\" which is expected to bring significant advancements in capability and efficiency.\n\n\n\nMajor model releases are significant strategic events for Google, and they are typically announced with considerable fanfare at scheduled events or via official blog posts. While there is constant speculation about the next big release, Google has not provided an official timeline. This forecast hinges on whether Google will make a formal, public announcement of Gemini 3, including variants like \"Pro\" or \"Flash\", within a very specific two-week window in the fall of 2025." }, { "id": 40199, "title": "Will a Hurricane make landfall in US (Lower 48) between Oct 1st 00:00 and Oct 10th 12:00?", "short_title": "Will a hurricane make landfall in the contiguous U.S. from Oct. 1 to Oct. 10?", "url_title": "Will a hurricane make landfall in the contiguous U.S. from Oct. 1 to Oct. 10?", "slug": "will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-contiguous-us-from-oct-1-to-oct-10", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:06:59.784242Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:54:53.349846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T17:08:14.973653Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 39736, "title": "Will a Hurricane make landfall in US (Lower 48) between Oct 1st 00:00 and Oct 10th 12:00?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:06:59.784608Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T17:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T17:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-14T14:54:53.317744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T15:06:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T15:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30, and early October remains a period of significant concern for tropical cyclone activity. As of September 30, 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring tropical waves in the Atlantic basin for potential development. While the peak of the season has passed, strong hurricanes are historically common in October, often forming in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and tracking northward.\n\n\n\nFor this forecast to resolve as \"Yes,\" a tropical cyclone must first achieve hurricane status (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) and then have its center cross the coastline of the lower 48 United States within the specified 9.5-day window. Forecasters and coastal residents are on high alert, as any developing system could strengthen and move quickly during this volatile period.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved based on official data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).\n\n1. **Defining \"Hurricane\":** The tropical cyclone must be classified by the NHC as a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or greater, at the moment of landfall. A storm that makes landfall as a Tropical Storm, even if it was previously a hurricane, will not cause this question to resolve as \"Yes.\"\n2. **Defining \"Landfall\":** Landfall is defined as the intersection of the surface center of the hurricane with a coastline.\n3. **Defining \"Contiguous U.S.\":** The landfall must occur along the Atlantic, Gulf, or Pacific coastline of the 48 contiguous United States. Landfall in Alaska, Hawaii, or any U.S. territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam) does not count.\n4. **Defining the Time Window:** The landfall must occur at or after 00:00 EDT on October 1, 2025, and before or at 12:00 PM EDT on October 10, 2025.\n5. **Resolution Conditions:**\n * The question will resolve as **Yes** if the NHC reports that a storm, classified as a hurricane, has made landfall meeting all the location and time criteria listed above.\n * The question will resolve as **No** if the time window closes and no storm has met all the specified criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40199, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759338090.577824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759338090.577824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.23489765602838805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9945795717357796, "peer_score": 6.717820673913229, "coverage": 0.9945795717357796, "baseline_score": 81.58221744308163, "spot_peer_score": 10.362488018348639, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 6.717820673913229, "baseline_archived_score": 81.58221744308163, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.362488018348639, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs until November 30, and early October remains a period of significant concern for tropical cyclone activity. As of September 30, 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring tropical waves in the Atlantic basin for potential development. While the peak of the season has passed, strong hurricanes are historically common in October, often forming in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and tracking northward.\n\n\n\nFor this forecast to resolve as \"Yes,\" a tropical cyclone must first achieve hurricane status (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) and then have its center cross the coastline of the lower 48 United States within the specified 9.5-day window. Forecasters and coastal residents are on high alert, as any developing system could strengthen and move quickly during this volatile period." }, { "id": 40198, "title": "Will the Government be shut down on Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "short_title": "Will the Government be shut down on Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "url_title": "Will the Government be shut down on Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "slug": "will-the-government-be-shut-down-on-oct-10th-1200-pm", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:02:29.335958Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:53:19.335939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T17:03:30.713504Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T07:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T07:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 39735, "title": "Will the Government be shut down on Oct 10th 12:00 pm?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T17:02:29.336318Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T17:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T17:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-14T14:53:19.302132Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T07:43:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T07:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. government's fiscal year concludes at midnight on September 30. For government operations to continue into the new fiscal year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign, 12 appropriations bills or a temporary measure known as a Continuing Resolution (CR).\n\n\n\nAs of September 30, 2025, Congress is at an impasse. Neither the House nor the Senate has passed a long-term funding solution, and negotiations over a CR have stalled due to disagreements on spending levels and healthcare policy provisions. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has already directed federal agencies to prepare for a lapse in appropriations, which would begin at 12:01 AM on October 1.\n\n\n\nA shutdown would halt all non-essential government services and furlough hundreds of thousands of federal employees. This question asks if this potential shutdown will still be ongoing ten days into the new fiscal year, a critical period during which public and political pressure to resolve the stalemate would be immense.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved based on the operational status of the U.S. Federal Government at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on Friday, October 10, 2025.\n\n1. **Definition of a Shutdown:** For the purpose of this forecast, a \"shutdown\" is defined as a lapse in discretionary appropriations for one or more federal departments or agencies, leading to the furlough of non-essential personnel and the curtailment of non-essential activities.\n2. **Resolution Source:** The primary source for resolution will be official statements and guidance from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) regarding the funding status of federal agencies. Widespread, corroborating reports from major, non-partisan news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, and C-SPAN) will serve as secondary confirmation.\n3. **Resolution Conditions:**\n * The question will resolve as **Yes** if, at the specified time, a lapse in appropriations is ongoing and federal agencies are operating under shutdown procedures as directed by the OMB. This includes a \"partial\" shutdown where one or more departments are unfunded.\n * The question will resolve as **No** if, at the specified time, all federal government departments are fully funded, either by enacted appropriations bills or an active Continuing Resolution. This includes a scenario where a shutdown began on October 1 but was resolved before the resolution date and time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760045585.398618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760045585.398618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7982709988654976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5478273995252975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.876931883579203 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9986408340311552, "peer_score": 10.394668025369045, "coverage": 0.9986408340311552, "baseline_score": 48.618947871419735, "spot_peer_score": 5.711741850865531, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 10.394668025369045, "baseline_archived_score": 48.618947871419735, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.711741850865531, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. government's fiscal year concludes at midnight on September 30. For government operations to continue into the new fiscal year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign, 12 appropriations bills or a temporary measure known as a Continuing Resolution (CR).\n\n\n\nAs of September 30, 2025, Congress is at an impasse. Neither the House nor the Senate has passed a long-term funding solution, and negotiations over a CR have stalled due to disagreements on spending levels and healthcare policy provisions. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has already directed federal agencies to prepare for a lapse in appropriations, which would begin at 12:01 AM on October 1.\n\n\n\nA shutdown would halt all non-essential government services and furlough hundreds of thousands of federal employees. This question asks if this potential shutdown will still be ongoing ten days into the new fiscal year, a critical period during which public and political pressure to resolve the stalemate would be immense." }, { "id": 40195, "title": "Will South Korea sign arms export deals worth >$5bn with any country between October 1 and December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will South Korea sign >$5bn arms export deals in Oct–Dec 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will South Korea sign >$5bn arms export deals in Oct–Dec 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-south-korea-sign-5bn-arms-export-deals-in-octdec-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T15:00:59.674321Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T10:18:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.030721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-01T10:18:13.972316Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39732, "title": "Will South Korea sign arms export deals worth >$5bn with any country between October 1 and December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T15:00:59.674691Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to[ War On the Rocks](https://warontherocks.com/2024/08/south-koreas-growing-role-as-a-major-arms-exporter-future-prospects-in-latin-america/), South Korea has in recent years has grown into one of the world's largest arms exporters, becoming a global top-10 arms exporter in 2023, with total sales that year worth about \\$14 billion. The South Korean government's goal is for the country to become the world's 4th largest arms exporter by 2027. Major European customers have been Poland, the United Kingdom, Norway. Major Asian and Pacific customers have been New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. Other opportunities have been in Latin America and countries neighboring Russia. \n\nRecent pitches made by South Korean arms manufacturers have included submarines to Canada [worth](https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2025/05/21/south-korea-pitches-18-billion-submarine-arms-deal-to-canada-amid-us-tensions/) \\$14 billion-\\$17 billion, and the country is nearing a deal to sell 180 tanks to Poland in a deal [worth](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/12/asia/poland-south-korea-tank-deal-intl-hnk-ml) \\$6.7 billion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30 and before December 16, 2025, the total worth of arms export deals between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and any single country exceeds \\$5 billion USD, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In order to qualify, a deal has to be a binding agreement for a ROK party to sell military equipment or weapons to a counterparty of another country and has to be announced or disclosed by a ROK party.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40195, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761355648.884138, "end_time": 1761382762.175, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761355648.884138, "end_time": 1761382762.175, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.31200976585841766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2913793654508732, 0.0, 0.14540923080948767, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6123345313071131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5362968802666555, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.09578707349426503, 0.463446097222602, 0.17204884715195704, 0.9933286083446475, 0.1769212063177643, 0.5802443922348675, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5915086375725582, 0.0, 0.9608251933910462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 1.1222376808420567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0636887467214329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8025193615105249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12050307030436279 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to[ War On the Rocks](https://warontherocks.com/2024/08/south-koreas-growing-role-as-a-major-arms-exporter-future-prospects-in-latin-america/), South Korea has in recent years has grown into one of the world's largest arms exporters, becoming a global top-10 arms exporter in 2023, with total sales that year worth about \\$14 billion. The South Korean government's goal is for the country to become the world's 4th largest arms exporter by 2027. Major European customers have been Poland, the United Kingdom, Norway. Major Asian and Pacific customers have been New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines. Other opportunities have been in Latin America and countries neighboring Russia. \n\nRecent pitches made by South Korean arms manufacturers have included submarines to Canada [worth](https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/2025/05/21/south-korea-pitches-18-billion-submarine-arms-deal-to-canada-amid-us-tensions/) \\$14 billion-\\$17 billion, and the country is nearing a deal to sell 180 tanks to Poland in a deal [worth](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/12/asia/poland-south-korea-tank-deal-intl-hnk-ml) \\$6.7 billion." }, { "id": 40194, "title": "Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Cambodia-Thailand conflict to result in 20+ deaths in Oct-Dec 15 2025?", "url_title": "Cambodia-Thailand conflict to result in 20+ deaths in Oct-Dec 15 2025?", "slug": "cambodia-thailand-conflict-to-result-in-20-deaths-in-oct-dec-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T14:44:04.257069Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T10:15:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:18:52.091049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-01T10:15:34.204653Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39731, "title": "Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in ⩾20 deaths between October 1 and December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T14:44:04.257441Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-15T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Cambodia and Thailand [fought](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/29/thailands-new-pm-vows-to-tackle-cambodia-border-conflict-economic-woes) a 5-day border skirmish resulting in at least 48 total deaths, over a [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_dispute) area of the two countries' border. The conflict ended in a [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Ceasefire_\\(28_July_2025_%E2%80%93_present\\)) brokered by Malaysia and under [pressure](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c93dy4g436nt?post=asset%3A3715f92d-0400-4815-8b5c-36ad32123bcc#post) from US president Donald Trump. \n\nIn late September 2025, renewed clashes [erupted](https://www.newsweek.com/thai-and-cambodian-troops-clash-in-threat-to-trump-backed-ceasefire-10792485) as the two sides exchanged fire. There have additionally been incidents such as Thai soldiers [injured](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/9/thai-soldiers-injured-by-landmine-near-cambodia-amid-fragile-truce) by landmines in August 2025, as tensions remain vice-grip tight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia results in 20 or more deaths in either country after September 30 and before December 16, 2025, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIndependent estimates of the number of deaths will be prioritized in resolving this question. These may include cases where an independent organization has reviewed and explicitly endorsed one side's death figures. If no such estimates are available or if they are judged by Metaculus to be in error, this question will resolve according to each side's count of their own dead.", "fine_print": "The deaths have to occur in Thai and/or Cambodian territory, as demarcated by their internationally recognized state borders. Deaths in disputed territories between the two countries will be included.\n\nThe deaths have to be caused by the overtly flagged military forces of Thailand, Cambodia, and/or their explicit allies in the conflict. Fatalities among both military forces and civilians of both countries will be counted.\n\nThe conflict need not involve Thailand forces within the borders of Cambodia or vice-versa; cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n\nThe deaths must be caused either by[ <u>kinetic</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) attacks (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as the close-quarters combat that occurred at [<u>Galwan Valley</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) between forces of India and China in 2020. Actions that are both non-kinetic and non-physical such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.\n\nIn case of conflicting information between sources, Metaculus might wait until the end of the tournament to resolve this question or might make a determination as to which sources should contribute to its resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “military forces” means\n\n* personnel of the Royal Thai Armed Forces\n* personnel of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces\n* law‑enforcement personnel of either state\n* or any paramilitary or militia group allied with any of the above–for example, Thahan Phran (Thai Rangers).", "post_id": 40194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761316004.335, "end_time": 1761382694.769, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761316004.335, "end_time": 1761382694.769, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12410522595073481 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Cambodia and Thailand [fought](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/29/thailands-new-pm-vows-to-tackle-cambodia-border-conflict-economic-woes) a 5-day border skirmish resulting in at least 48 total deaths, over a [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_dispute) area of the two countries' border. The conflict ended in a [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Ceasefire_\\(28_July_2025_%E2%80%93_present\\)) brokered by Malaysia and under [pressure](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c93dy4g436nt?post=asset%3A3715f92d-0400-4815-8b5c-36ad32123bcc#post) from US president Donald Trump. \n\nIn late September 2025, renewed clashes [erupted](https://www.newsweek.com/thai-and-cambodian-troops-clash-in-threat-to-trump-backed-ceasefire-10792485) as the two sides exchanged fire. There have additionally been incidents such as Thai soldiers [injured](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/9/thai-soldiers-injured-by-landmine-near-cambodia-amid-fragile-truce) by landmines in August 2025, as tensions remain vice-grip tight." }, { "id": 40189, "title": "Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa before Dec 2025?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa before Dec 2025?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-before-dec-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T11:03:24.678621Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T11:52:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T10:42:40.668611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T11:52:19.392692Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T09:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T09:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39726, "title": "Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa before December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T11:03:24.679065Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T09:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-18T10:42:40.633691Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T09:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso April 2025](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250422-burkina-faso-junta-claims-it-stopped-a-major-plot-to-sow-total-chaos) (attempt)\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any African country after September 30, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "A coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is[ <u>defined</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.\n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant organized resistance to their control from within the government or military has ceased, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nA self-coup,[ <u>defined</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described[ <u>here</u>](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 40189, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760433394.492136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760433394.492136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 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1.2377236443322552 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9902284256411121, "peer_score": 4.796082412573897, "coverage": 0.2086163053743912, "baseline_score": -44.64460397309919, "spot_peer_score": 21.485601969409917, "spot_baseline_score": -194.34164716336326, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 4.796082412573897, "baseline_archived_score": -44.64460397309919, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.485601969409917, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -194.34164716336326 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 281, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso April 2025](https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20250422-burkina-faso-junta-claims-it-stopped-a-major-plot-to-sow-total-chaos) (attempt)\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 40186, "title": "Will the EU have an average annual inflation rate of at least 2.5% for any month before December 2025?", "short_title": "EU average annual inflation at least 2.5% in Sep-Nov 2025?", "url_title": "EU average annual inflation at least 2.5% in Sep-Nov 2025?", "slug": "eu-average-annual-inflation-at-least-25-in-sep-nov-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T10:10:22.440566Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T10:10:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T00:43:29.728038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T10:11:00.008551Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39723, "title": "Will the EU have an average annual inflation rate of at least 2.5% for any month before December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T10:10:22.440935Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-24T00:42:31.749442Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eurostat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostat) is the statistical office of the European Union. It provides official, harmonised data on a wide range of economic and social indicators, including inflation, GDP, unemployment, and trade. For inflation, Eurostat publishes the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which allows for meaningful comparisons of inflation rates across EU member states. Eurostat typically releases a flash estimate at the end of each month, followed by a finalised value approximately two weeks later.\n\nAfter reaching record highs in 2023 due to energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions, inflation in the EU gradually declined over the course of 2023 and 2024. By 2025, average annual inflation had fallen to a range of 2.6-2.4%, broadly stabilizing but still elevated compared with pre-pandemic inflation rates. Continued high natural gas [prices](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas) are putting upward pressure on prices, and tariff hits from Donald Trump look to [dampen](https://think.ing.com/articles/what-europe-stands-to-lose-from-trumps-latest-tariffs-revisited/) trade. In its latest meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank [kept](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202506.en.html) key interest rates unchanged.\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the value reported by Eurostat at its [<u>HICP - monthly data (12-month average rate of change)</u>](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_mv12r/default/table?lang=en) database for *European Union - 27 countries from 2020* is greater than or equal to 2.5 for September, October or November 2025. If the values are below 2.5 for each of the three months, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If this question has not resolved as **Yes** before then, it will resolve upon the first release of numbers for November 2025, expected approximately December 15, 2025. Further revisions to the number will not cause the question to re-resolve.", "post_id": 40186, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760706501.861633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760706501.861633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6437764263351637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3270470724549523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 0.03627506129959581, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.794434019298327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5032889455408358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.6260717992540555, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052, 0.21562164146808224, 0.2613886343686929, 1.1635271858526788, 0.0, 0.25849405849129703, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.3022951398714032, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5877243276074936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9492544885909892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7632323013035665 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9921645287987478, "peer_score": 3.671670464153073, "coverage": 0.26361859460836273, "baseline_score": 7.08959520950107, "spot_peer_score": 28.17329477093963, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 3.671670464153073, "baseline_archived_score": 7.08959520950107, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.17329477093963, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Eurostat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurostat) is the statistical office of the European Union. It provides official, harmonised data on a wide range of economic and social indicators, including inflation, GDP, unemployment, and trade. For inflation, Eurostat publishes the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which allows for meaningful comparisons of inflation rates across EU member states. Eurostat typically releases a flash estimate at the end of each month, followed by a finalised value approximately two weeks later.\n\nAfter reaching record highs in 2023 due to energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions, inflation in the EU gradually declined over the course of 2023 and 2024. By 2025, average annual inflation had fallen to a range of 2.6-2.4%, broadly stabilizing but still elevated compared with pre-pandemic inflation rates. Continued high natural gas [prices](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas) are putting upward pressure on prices, and tariff hits from Donald Trump look to [dampen](https://think.ing.com/articles/what-europe-stands-to-lose-from-trumps-latest-tariffs-revisited/) trade. In its latest meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank [kept](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202506.en.html) key interest rates unchanged.\n\n" }, { "id": 40185, "title": "Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted of any criminal charges before January 16, 2026?", "short_title": "Will South Korean ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted by Jan 16, 2026?", "url_title": "Will South Korean ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted by Jan 16, 2026?", "slug": "will-south-korean-ex-president-yoon-suk-yeol-be-convicted-by-jan-16-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T09:55:25.379948Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T11:43:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:24:38.389959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T11:44:10.136962Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39722, "title": "Will former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol be convicted of any criminal charges before January 16, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T09:55:25.380353Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was [arrested](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd97ez54dlyo) in July 2026 and faces a criminal trial over [insurrection](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10457698) stemming from his December 2024 [declaration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_Korean_martial_law_crisis) of martial law, which provoked a crisis in South Korea. Charges [include](http://aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/19/south-korea-ex-leader-yoon-indicted-as-martial-law-probe-continues) abuse of power, obstruction of special official duties, and \"drafting and discarding a false document\" stating the prime minister and defense minister endorsed martial law. In addition to his martial law trial that began in July, Yoon Suk Yeol [faces](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/ousted-south-korean-president-denies-all-martial-charges-as-trial-begins/3698686) a second trial with additional charges. He has denied all wrongdoing. \n\nYoon Suk Yeol is not the first South Korean president to face criminal charges. Park Geun-hye, who served from 2013 to 2017, was [arrested](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye#Arrest,_detention,_pardon_and_post-presidency_\\(2017%E2%80%93present\\)) in March 2017 on charges including bribery, abuse of power and coercion, was found guilty and then [sentenced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Park_Geun-hye) in April 2018. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 16, 2026, a South Korean court finds Yoon Suk Yeol guilty of any criminal charge.", "fine_print": "Appeals or pardons do not affect resolution.", "post_id": 40185, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761355467.903902, "end_time": 1761399611.749, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761355467.903902, "end_time": 1761399611.749, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19607823325010465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5305354475802987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 1.5323146494214637, 0.33566448758373646, 0.9465935183140928, 0.0, 2.5759148714753803, 0.4570562060943923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.075059334431173, 0.0, 1.0194664268286275, 0.0, 0.01420841581464255, 0.2749542689950371, 0.03713880639824575, 0.23610179272992643, 0.0, 0.041854423028354265, 0.37157758763779314, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.1338620746755217, 0.0, 0.420622437680186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15748357304771182, 0.1978644034039354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01921436943183433, 0.7081278126566147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08068367621686655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.3993722226510632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35700905733344096, 0.0, 0.022133849035742014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05879944916051883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20960325606182684 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was [arrested](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd97ez54dlyo) in July 2026 and faces a criminal trial over [insurrection](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10457698) stemming from his December 2024 [declaration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_Korean_martial_law_crisis) of martial law, which provoked a crisis in South Korea. Charges [include](http://aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/19/south-korea-ex-leader-yoon-indicted-as-martial-law-probe-continues) abuse of power, obstruction of special official duties, and \"drafting and discarding a false document\" stating the prime minister and defense minister endorsed martial law. In addition to his martial law trial that began in July, Yoon Suk Yeol [faces](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/ousted-south-korean-president-denies-all-martial-charges-as-trial-begins/3698686) a second trial with additional charges. He has denied all wrongdoing. \n\nYoon Suk Yeol is not the first South Korean president to face criminal charges. Park Geun-hye, who served from 2013 to 2017, was [arrested](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye#Arrest,_detention,_pardon_and_post-presidency_\\(2017%E2%80%93present\\)) in March 2017 on charges including bribery, abuse of power and coercion, was found guilty and then [sentenced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Park_Geun-hye) in April 2018. " }, { "id": 40183, "title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?", "short_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?", "url_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?", "slug": "will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-test-before-december-16-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T09:18:04.942459Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T11:40:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T22:27:47.599749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T11:40:45.427688Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39717, "title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T09:18:04.942878Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 26, 2025, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung [said](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/north-korea/north-korea-close-icbm-hit-us-nuclear-weapon-kim-jong-un-unga-rcna233835) that North Korea will soon add 15 to 20 nuclear warheads to its arsenal each year, and was edging closer to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach as far as the United States. North Korea has repeatedly signaled that it considers itself a full-fledged nuclear state, including on in a September 2025 UN [speech](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250929-n-korea-vows-at-un-never-to-give-up-nuclear). North Korea's buildup comes amid growing [support](https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-south-koreas-nuclear-ambitions-subside-next-five-years) in South Korea for that country to develop its own nuclear weapons program.\n\nNorth Korea has conducted a total of 6 nuclear tests: \n\n* [October 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [May 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [February 2013](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [January 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2016_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [September 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2016_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [September 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n\nAn unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency report released in September 2025 [said](https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf#page=26), \"North Korea has restored its nuclear test site and is now postured to conduct a seventh nuclear test at a time of its choosing.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30 and before December 16, 2025, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [<u>defined</u>](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [<u>subcritical</u>](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, it will not count.", "post_id": 40183, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761344857.271095, "end_time": 1761382696.659, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761344857.271095, "end_time": 1761382696.659, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.08231807947445499 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 26, 2025, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung [said](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/north-korea/north-korea-close-icbm-hit-us-nuclear-weapon-kim-jong-un-unga-rcna233835) that North Korea will soon add 15 to 20 nuclear warheads to its arsenal each year, and was edging closer to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach as far as the United States. North Korea has repeatedly signaled that it considers itself a full-fledged nuclear state, including on in a September 2025 UN [speech](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250929-n-korea-vows-at-un-never-to-give-up-nuclear). North Korea's buildup comes amid growing [support](https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-south-koreas-nuclear-ambitions-subside-next-five-years) in South Korea for that country to develop its own nuclear weapons program.\n\nNorth Korea has conducted a total of 6 nuclear tests: \n\n* [October 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [May 2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [February 2013](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [January 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2016_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [September 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2016_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n* [September 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test)\n\nAn unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency report released in September 2025 [said](https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2025_dia_statement_for_the_record.pdf#page=26), \"North Korea has restored its nuclear test site and is now postured to conduct a seventh nuclear test at a time of its choosing.\"" }, { "id": 40182, "title": "Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?", "short_title": "Will France extend its nuclear umbrella before Dec 16, 2025?", "url_title": "Will France extend its nuclear umbrella before Dec 16, 2025?", "slug": "will-france-extend-its-nuclear-umbrella-before-dec-16-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-29T23:33:18.724118Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T11:39:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T00:05:59.576045Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T11:39:57.508419Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39716, "title": "Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-29T23:33:18.724472Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron [said](https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/macron-france-nuclear-arsenal-ukraine-intl-hnk) France would consider protecting other European countries using France's nuclear arsenal. For its part, the Russian government [blasted](https://www.aol.com/news/kremlin-blasts-confrontational-macron-speech-102431880.html) the speech as \"confrontational,\" with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, \"It can hardly be perceived as a speech by a head of state who is thinking about peace.\"\n\nMacron's move had come in [response](https://apnews.com/article/french-president-macron-tariffs-nuclear-206478d8bd7ccb20eb79b60c30af018b) to a German push for \"nuclear sharing\" in Europe. In July 2025, France and the United Kingdom issued the joint [Northwood Declaration](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/reading-between-the-lines-of-the-new-france-uk-nuclear-entente/) agreeing to potentially coordinate their nuclear postures, which may mark the beginning of a geopolitical shift, with France along with the UK taking up some of the nuclear deterrence that has traditionally been provided by the United States. \n\nPoland [has welcomed ](https://apnews.com/article/france-nuclear-deterrent-umbrella-russia-55e91ab65d13559dfc55dfe376ba5268)France's proposal to extend its nuclear umbrella, as have Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia, although no new agreements or joint declarations have been completed at the time of this question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30 and before December 16, 2025, France announces an agreement or joint declaration with another European country that provides that France would or may use nuclear weapons in retaliation for that country being attacked with nuclear weapons. ", "fine_print": "The agreement or declaration need not explicitly require use of nuclear weapons by France. An example of a joint declaration that would count is the Washington Declaration of 2023, which [<u>says</u>](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/26/washington-declaration-2/), “any nuclear attack by the DPRK against the ROK will be met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response.” Another that would count is the Joint Statement of the 2023 U.S.–Japan Security Consultative Committee, which [<u>says</u>](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3265559/joint-statement-of-the-2023-usjapan-security-consultative-committee-22/), “The United States restated its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan under Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.”\n\nΑ European country is defined as a country with any of its land territory encompassed within the continent of Europe. These include for example Turkey, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Cyprus.", "post_id": 40182, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761350749.08882, "end_time": 1761399600.067, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.039 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761350749.08882, "end_time": 1761399600.067, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.039 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.0891510233209911 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5639659347133577, 1.7661319548683347, 0.05960942483775391, 1.071883222970664, 0.08274750400403365, 0.6917394343243981, 1.76544043598373, 2.4226425051316913, 1.6109010097143677, 0.5124765216455756, 0.5729993707029708, 0.9361882784028203, 0.40350388084437705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004609180846326192, 0.0, 0.05731574374097056, 0.0744208609914299, 0.0, 0.07383432533676776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009894530929378758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02077269865532973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001339079145820899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036399945089534095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04312565778056248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16088021096958338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005705735607831822 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 229, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron [said](https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/05/europe/macron-france-nuclear-arsenal-ukraine-intl-hnk) France would consider protecting other European countries using France's nuclear arsenal. For its part, the Russian government [blasted](https://www.aol.com/news/kremlin-blasts-confrontational-macron-speech-102431880.html) the speech as \"confrontational,\" with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying, \"It can hardly be perceived as a speech by a head of state who is thinking about peace.\"\n\nMacron's move had come in [response](https://apnews.com/article/french-president-macron-tariffs-nuclear-206478d8bd7ccb20eb79b60c30af018b) to a German push for \"nuclear sharing\" in Europe. In July 2025, France and the United Kingdom issued the joint [Northwood Declaration](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/reading-between-the-lines-of-the-new-france-uk-nuclear-entente/) agreeing to potentially coordinate their nuclear postures, which may mark the beginning of a geopolitical shift, with France along with the UK taking up some of the nuclear deterrence that has traditionally been provided by the United States. \n\nPoland [has welcomed ](https://apnews.com/article/france-nuclear-deterrent-umbrella-russia-55e91ab65d13559dfc55dfe376ba5268)France's proposal to extend its nuclear umbrella, as have Lithuania, Lativa and Estonia, although no new agreements or joint declarations have been completed at the time of this question." }, { "id": 40181, "title": "Will Russia’s annual GDP growth rate exceed 1.5% in Q3 2025?", "short_title": "Will Russia’s annual GDP growth rate exceed 1.5% in Q3 2025?", "url_title": "Will Russia’s annual GDP growth rate exceed 1.5% in Q3 2025?", "slug": "will-russias-annual-gdp-growth-rate-exceed-15-in-q3-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-29T22:35:33.132888Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T11:34:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T00:26:46.326215Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T11:35:43.508686Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-14T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32833, "type": "tournament", "name": "RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge", "slug": "rand", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/rand_cover.png", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-17T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-29T19:41:59.567114Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:40.486920Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39715, "title": "Will Russia’s annual GDP growth rate exceed 1.5% in Q3 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-29T22:35:33.133430Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-14T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, support for separatists in the Donbas, and 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the [United States](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) and the [European Union](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/timeline-sanctions-against-russia/) have imposed ever-tightening sanctions on Russia. In fact, measured by targeted entities and individuals, Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, according to [Castellum](https://www.castellum.ai/insights/russia-is-now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country). The most severe sanctions are the cutoff of Russia's government and banks from the international SWIFT system, which has resulted in about half of Russia's reserves being lost to Moscow. However:\n\n> Notably absent are restrictions on Russian energy exports. The G7 has sought to enable continued financial transactions involving oil and gas exports from Russia. They have refrained from adopting sanctions that would cut off energy supplies to Europe. But, Brent crude prices have already jumped to over \\$110/barrel in the wake of the invasion and spot prices for gas on the global market rose 10x over 2021 prices. Outside the obvious argument that the spike in energy prices, in fact, funds Russia’s war, there has been little interest in buying Russian oil and gas given the potential for further sanctions.\n\nDespite maintaining access to world markets for its hydrocarbons, Russia's oil and gas revenues [were down](https://tass.com/economy/2011549) 25% year over year. Additionally, interest rates [are](https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/) 17% (recently cut by 100 basis points) as Russia's central bank has been fighting inflation. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Russia’s year-over-year growth rate in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is strictly greater than 1.5% for the third quarter of 2025, according to data presented by [<u>Trading Economics</u>](https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual).", "fine_print": "In cases of delays or issues in the main resolution source, Metaculus may use another resolution source based on numbers released by the Russian government, such as Investing.com’s [<u>Russia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly YoY</u>](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/russian-quarterly-gdp-970).", "post_id": 40181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761351995.581445, "end_time": 1761382698.233, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761351995.581445, "end_time": 1761382698.233, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13438325131433096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.514670219235567, 0.0, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.7728883668761668, 0.0, 0.19291237976469644, 2.7168087944553463, 0.014505757420011789, 3.2498597264261164, 0.0, 0.7832643380405556, 0.12585700968552796, 1.6775180325848165, 0.08719852760566235, 0.431007191772122, 0.15062225698690318, 0.0, 0.547636609326225, 0.3225918225060193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05730206168043847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6992343185351149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 228, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, support for separatists in the Donbas, and 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the [United States](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) and the [European Union](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/timeline-sanctions-against-russia/) have imposed ever-tightening sanctions on Russia. In fact, measured by targeted entities and individuals, Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world, according to [Castellum](https://www.castellum.ai/insights/russia-is-now-the-worlds-most-sanctioned-country). The most severe sanctions are the cutoff of Russia's government and banks from the international SWIFT system, which has resulted in about half of Russia's reserves being lost to Moscow. However:\n\n> Notably absent are restrictions on Russian energy exports. The G7 has sought to enable continued financial transactions involving oil and gas exports from Russia. They have refrained from adopting sanctions that would cut off energy supplies to Europe. But, Brent crude prices have already jumped to over \\$110/barrel in the wake of the invasion and spot prices for gas on the global market rose 10x over 2021 prices. Outside the obvious argument that the spike in energy prices, in fact, funds Russia’s war, there has been little interest in buying Russian oil and gas given the potential for further sanctions.\n\nDespite maintaining access to world markets for its hydrocarbons, Russia's oil and gas revenues [were down](https://tass.com/economy/2011549) 25% year over year. Additionally, interest rates [are](https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/) 17% (recently cut by 100 basis points) as Russia's central bank has been fighting inflation. " }, { "id": 40174, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:37.905752Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T12:32:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:12.190133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:38.290653Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T17:13:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T17:13:10Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T12:32:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39710, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 88.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:37.906163Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T12:32:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T17:13:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T17:13:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:11.641396Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T14:02:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). If the community prediction on 2025-10-16 17:13:10 is higher than 88.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40174, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759326477.471577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759326477.471577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5880728128460686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.812001085057958, "peer_score": 7.914440207285027, "coverage": 0.9279194423887465, "relative_legacy_score": -0.02623891185098529, "weighted_coverage": 0.9279194423887465, "spot_peer_score": 6.644605637849148, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 24.812001085057958, "peer_archived_score": 7.914440207285027, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.02623891185098529, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.644605637849148, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 88.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.88}}`" }, { "id": 40173, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-doj-indict-christopher-krebs-or-miles-taylor-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:37.173780Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T03:15:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:12.893686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:37.560413Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T00:29:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T00:29:40Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T03:15:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39709, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:37.174182Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T03:15:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T00:29:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T00:29:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:12.455277Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T04:45:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348). If the community prediction on 2025-10-15 00:29:40 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40173, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759466426.19662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759466426.19662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7224999999999999, 0.2775 ], "means": [ 0.306558170995671 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.17432484971432, "peer_score": 8.751106890758761, "coverage": 0.9805220948325264, "relative_legacy_score": 0.010624513063885283, "weighted_coverage": 0.9805220948325264, "spot_peer_score": 9.037160985993207, "spot_baseline_score": 53.10694927259539, "baseline_archived_score": 53.17432484971432, "peer_archived_score": 8.751106890758761, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.010624513063885283, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.037160985993207, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 53.10694927259539 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40172, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-09 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:36.353652Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T08:39:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:13.564480Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:36.699342Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T03:45:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T03:45:12Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T08:39:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39708, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-09 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:36.354056Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T08:39:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T03:45:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T03:45:12Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:13.150460Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T10:09:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512). If the community prediction on 2025-10-09 03:45:12 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40172, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759398604.812622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759398604.812622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.41329373996789703 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -50.88015405702789, "peer_score": -1.6839036372690006, "coverage": 0.9898256035204289, "relative_legacy_score": -0.16346483924224103, "weighted_coverage": 0.9898256035204289, "spot_peer_score": -3.0507924014171652, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -50.88015405702789, "peer_archived_score": -1.6839036372690006, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.16346483924224103, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.0507924014171652, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40171, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 92.10% on 2025-10-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Nvidia stock rise in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Nvidia stock rise in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-nvidia-stock-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:35.506296Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T22:39:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:14.382680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:35.991429Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-12T15:28:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-12T15:28:14Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T22:39:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39707, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 92.10% on 2025-10-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:35.506715Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T22:39:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-12T15:28:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-12T15:28:14Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:13.826691Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T00:09:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35574\n- Original question title: Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 92.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Nvidia's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $134.29, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n> * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Nvidia is a leading technology company specializing in AI and graphics processors. The company's stock has shown strong growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for AI technologies and graphics processing units (GPUs). In 2024, Nvidia's share price will increase by approximately 170%, reflecting its strong performance.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35574,\"question_id\":35024,\"last_cp\":0.921}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35574). If the community prediction on 2025-10-12 15:28:14 is higher than 92.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40171, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759707893.227519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759707893.227519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5884154351395732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 29.33884486581318, "peer_score": 13.1795902555668, "coverage": 0.970154145911888, "relative_legacy_score": 0.046880482617234695, "weighted_coverage": 0.970154145911888, "spot_peer_score": 12.50976814260111, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 29.33884486581318, "peer_archived_score": 13.1795902555668, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.046880482617234695, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.50976814260111, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35574\n- Original question title: Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 92.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Nvidia's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $134.29, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n> * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Nvidia is a leading technology company specializing in AI and graphics processors. The company's stock has shown strong growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for AI technologies and graphics processing units (GPUs). In 2024, Nvidia's share price will increase by approximately 170%, reflecting its strong performance.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35574,\"question_id\":35024,\"last_cp\":0.921}}`" }, { "id": 40170, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-10-09 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:34.631253Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T17:59:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:15.283740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:35.156456Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T01:24:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T01:24:58Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T17:59:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39706, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-10-09 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:34.631906Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T17:59:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T01:24:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-09T01:24:58Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:14.626951Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T19:29:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-10-09 01:24:58 is higher than 35.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40170, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759260432.860931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759260432.860931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43475280898876395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.634815998919095, "peer_score": 8.625930092844829, "coverage": 0.9328758031350594, "relative_legacy_score": 0.1581054303060565, "weighted_coverage": 0.9328758031350594, "spot_peer_score": 11.995186690464838, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 21.634815998919095, "peer_archived_score": 8.625930092844829, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.1581054303060565, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.995186690464838, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 40169, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.70% on 2025-10-18 for the Metaculus question \"In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-iras-amptc-start-requiring-domestic-materials", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:33.896774Z", "published_at": "2025-10-04T03:01:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:15.964222Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:34.268051Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T02:44:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T02:44:22Z", "open_time": "2025-10-04T03:01:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39705, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.70% on 2025-10-18 for the Metaculus question \"In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:33.897174Z", "open_time": "2025-10-04T03:01:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T02:44:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T02:44:22Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:15.530110Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T04:31:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490\n- Original question title: In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 5.70%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n> \n> In the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n> \n> It is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925,\"last_cp\":0.057}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490). If the community prediction on 2025-10-18 02:44:22 is higher than 5.70%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40169, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759551599.938982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759551599.938982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.342877808988764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.181866668792544, "peer_score": 11.421545512515616, "coverage": 0.9899231840946057, "relative_legacy_score": 0.25784284692571796, "weighted_coverage": 0.9899231840946057, "spot_peer_score": 13.262983390737698, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 45.181866668792544, "peer_archived_score": 11.421545512515616, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.25784284692571796, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.262983390737698, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490\n- Original question title: In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 5.70%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n> \n> In the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n> \n> It is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925,\"last_cp\":0.057}}`" } ] }
](http://unchanged.%5Cn%5Cn){kind=link}