Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=80
{ "count": 5880, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "results": [ { "id": 39303, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "short_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "url_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "slug": "will-cracker-barrel-have-falling-sales-for-its-q1-fy2026-august-october-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015267Z", "published_at": "2025-08-22T00:03:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.759206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-22T00:04:19Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T09:38:32.449974Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T09:38:32.449974Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38647, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015814Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cracker Barrel, Inc.'s first quarter total revenue in its fiscal year 2026 is less than its first quarter total revenue in FY 2025.  \r\n\r\nThe Q1 2026 total revenue figure is expected to encompass the 13-week period through October 31, 2025, and Q1 2025 encompassed the 13-week period through November 1, 2025. Question resolves according to results posted at [SEC Edgar](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1067294\\&owner=exclude) or Cracker Barrel's [Investor Relations](https://investor.cbrlgroup.com/) page.\r\n\r\nQ1 2025 [had](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067294/000155837024016001/cbrl-20241101x10q.htm#CONDENSEDCONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFINCOMEL) total revenue of \\$845.089 million. Thus, the question resolves as **Yes** if Q1 2026 total revenue is less than that amount.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757080569.078457, "end_time": 1758515431.694, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757080569.078457, "end_time": 1758515431.694, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.5677256261952017 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8977460713963459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities." }, { "id": 39300, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "short_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "url_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "slug": "by-dec-1-2025-will-erdogan-be-legally-permitted-to-run-for-another-term", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.649709Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.183628Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:42:07.675203Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38644, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.650214Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:41:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leader’s “legal” term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. Erdoğan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2025, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), legally able run for another consecutive term as president of Turkey (officially the President of the Republic of Türkiye).", "fine_print": "This may come about through amending or changing the Turkish constitution, a ruling by the Constitutional Court of Turkey, the government enacting a new law, or any other mechanism that legally permits Erdoğan to run for another consecutive presidential term in the [next Turkish presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Turkish_presidential_election). ", "post_id": 39300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leader’s “legal” term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. Erdoğan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"" }, { "id": 39295, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "url_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "slug": "will-samia-suluhu-hassan-win-the-next-tanzanian-election-with-80", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631322Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.355582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:29.857076Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38641, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631680Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:41:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. There’s no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the government’s party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Samia Suluhu Hassan wins the next presidential election in Tanzania, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tanzanian_general_election) for October 29, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Suluhu receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 29, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Tanzania before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756921635.574403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756921635.574403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. There’s no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the government’s party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same." }, { "id": 39294, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with ≥80% of the vote?", "url_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with ≥80% of the vote?", "slug": "will-paul-biya-win-the-next-cameroon-election-with-80-of-the-vote", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266173Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.749925Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:31.650037Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38640, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266641Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:39:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup d’etat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been “re-elected” several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Paul Biya wins the next presidential election in Cameroon, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election) for October 12, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Biya receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 12, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Cameroon before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756921608.76849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756921608.76849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup d’etat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been “re-elected” several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition." }, { "id": 39293, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "slug": "will-guinea-bissau-hold-elections-before-november-24-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676072Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.760263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:27:17.540355Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38639, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676514Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President Embaló [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) Embaló of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Y**es** if, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reports, the [general elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election) for both president and National People's Assembly are held in Guinea-Bissau before November 24, 2025.", "fine_print": "If there are multiple days of voting, it counts as long as the date of the first day of in-person voting takes before November 24, 2025.", "post_id": 39293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President Embaló [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) Embaló of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome." }, { "id": 39292, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.453849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-20T17:45:10.596859Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T09:38:32.449974Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T09:38:32.449974Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38638, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816681Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America after August 21, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 39292, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757080557.488145, "end_time": 1758515461.611, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757080557.488145, "end_time": 1758515461.611, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3242855246078038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49730739405089064, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5847548257737258, 0.49724050901509637, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 39291, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-kim-ju-ae-appear-alongside-her-dad-kim-jong-un-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130033Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.991077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:33.988591Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38637, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130439Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Cuba’s Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidel’s survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nation’s ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un make a public appearance together. ", "fine_print": "\"Public appearance\" is defined as Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un presenting themselves in front of an in-person audience at an official ceremony. Virtual appearances, such as a joint televised address, do not count unless made in front of an in-person audience.\n\n\"Together\" is defined as occupying the same physical space closely enough at a public venue that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves.", "post_id": 39291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Cuba’s Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidel’s survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nation’s ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). " }, { "id": 39289, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ahmed-al-sharaa-lose-power-as-president-of-syria-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.048800Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.363493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:19.236160Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 38636, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.049262Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:17:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be the [President of Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria) before December 1, 2025, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756921649.691345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756921649.691345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply." }, { "id": 39288, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-russian-elites-die-under-suspicious-circumstances-before-dec-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.763626Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.907024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:48.695786Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 38635, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.764057Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats don’t need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positions—those involving force and money—and killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, any Russian elite dies under suspicious circumstances, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. \n\n\"Elite\" is defined as any current or former member of the Russian [cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Russia#Current_Cabinet); a current or former member of the [State Duma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Duma) or [Federation Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_Council_of_Russia); an oligarch, which is defined as any Russian with a net worth of at least \\$100 million or anyone who is currently CEO, chairman, controlling shareholder, or founder of a public company; any current member of the Russian military with a rank of [lieutenant-general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation#Officers), [vitse-admiral, ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy#Commissioned_officer_ranks)or higher; or any current or former head of a Russian[ federal subject](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia). \n\n\"Suspicious circumstances\" is defined as ICD-10 Version:2019 [external causes of morbidity and mortality](https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/XX) V01-X59 Accidents, X60-X84 Intentional self-harm, X85-Y09 Assault, and Y10-Y34 Event of undetermined intent.\n\nIf no such reported deaths occur after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "An example that would have counted is Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had a reported net worth greater than \\$100 million and [died in a plane crash](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/who-killed-yevgeny-prigozhin). Another who would have counted is Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, who \"[shot himself](https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-former-transport-minister-starovoit-has-shot-himself-izvestiya-cites-2025-07-07/)\" on July 7, 2025. An example that would not have counted for purposes of this question is Dmitri Osipov, chairman of [Urakali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uralkali) who died suddenly on August 12, 2025, but [reportedly](https://news.rambler.ru/incidents/55128524-v-vozraste-59-let-ot-raka-umer-byvshiy-gendirektor-uralkaliya-dmitriy-osipov/) of cancer. Nor would Mikhail Kenin, founder of Samolet, who [died ](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/property-mogul-links-putin-regime-35711683)suddenly on August 11, 2025, though with no cause of death publicly reported at the time of this question other than \"acute heart failure.\"", "post_id": 39288, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats don’t need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positions—those involving force and money—and killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye" }, { "id": 39268, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "url_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "slug": "saf-rsf-face-to-face-peace-talks-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129162Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T01:13:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:21:37.074833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T01:15:12Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38610, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129515Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **YES** if credible media reports or official statements confirm that both Sudanese Armed Forces ([SAF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces)) and Rapid Support Forces ([RSF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces)) delegations are physically present at the same location simultaneously for peace negotiations before December 31, 2025. Both delegations must be present at the same venue during overlapping time periods (not virtual participation). Any official delegation level qualifies, including military commanders, political representatives, or designated negotiators.\n\nSources for resolution include, but are not limited to, reports from Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, UN statements, African Union announcements, or official statements from the SAF or RSF.", "fine_print": "Informal or track-two meetings without official delegation status do not qualify. Meetings must be explicitly characterized as peace negotiations, ceasefire talks, or political dialogue—not merely humanitarian coordination. Sequential meetings where parties attend the same venue at different times do not qualify.", "post_id": 39268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757283686.17169, "end_time": 1758474094.394, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757283686.17169, "end_time": 1758474094.394, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.17254308668000992 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.16066607683687129, 1.5176266504557887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue." }, { "id": 39265, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "short_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "url_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "slug": "25-increase-in-minority-business-share", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644014Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.919159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:45.696473Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38607, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644420Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses issued in Pensacola increases by at least 25% in 2028 compared to the 2024 baseline.\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. 2024 Baseline: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) × 100\n2. 2028 Target: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) × 100\n3. Increase: ((2028 share - 2024 share) / 2024 share) × 100 ≥ 25%\n\n**Example**:\n- If 2024: 100 minority-owned out of 500 total = 20% share\n- Target 2028: At least 25% share (125 minority-owned out of 500)\n- This represents a 25% relative increase in the share\n\n**\"Minority-Owned\" Definition**:\nBusiness where one or more minority individuals own at least 51% of the business. Minorities include:\n- Black/African American\n- Hispanic/Latino\n- Asian\n- Native American/Alaska Native\n- Pacific Islander\n- Middle Eastern/North African (if tracked)\n- Multiracial individuals\n\n**\"New Business License\" Definition**:\n- Initial business tax receipt/license issued\n- Not renewals or transfers\n- All business types (retail, service, professional, etc.)\n- Home-based businesses included\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. City of Pensacola business license database with demographics\n2. Pensacola Chamber of Commerce diversity report\n3. City economic development reports\n4. University of West Florida economic studies\n5. State of Florida minority business statistics (city-specific)\n\n**Self-Identification Requirements**:\n- Based on voluntary self-identification\n- City must collect this data for both years\n- If multiple owners, count if any qualify as minority\n- No verification/certification required beyond self-reporting\n\n**What Counts**:\n- Sole proprietorships\n- Partnerships\n- Corporations\n- LLCs\n- Non-profits operating businesses\n- Franchise owners (if minority-owned)\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Business license renewals\n- Transfers of existing businesses\n- Businesses outside city limits\n- Government entities\n- Inactive licenses (must operate in year)\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, use 2024 boundaries for both years\n\n**Time Period**:\n- 2024: January 1 - December 31, 2024\n- 2028: January 1 - December 31, 2028\n- Full year data required for both\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If demographic data not collected in 2024: Use 2025 as baseline\n- If data collection methods change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing demographic data: Only count known minority-owned\n- If city stops issuing licenses: AMBIGUOUS\n- Joint ventures: Count if minority partner has ≥51% ownership", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets." }, { "id": 39264, "title": "Will annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "short_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "url_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "slug": "30-traffic-ksi-reduction-by-2028", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:30.408873Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.937133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:35.523209Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38606, "title": "Will annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:30.409272Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) incidents on two designated priority corridors in Pensacola falls by at least 30% comparing the 2028 three-year average to the 2024-2026 baseline.\n\n**KSI Definition**:\n- **Killed**: Fatal injuries resulting in death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Incapacitating injuries requiring hospitalization (not just ER treatment)\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. Baseline: Average annual KSI for 2024-2026 on the two corridors\n2. Target Period: Average annual KSI for 2026-2028 on the same corridors\n3. Reduction: ((Baseline - Target) / Baseline) × 100 ≥ 30%\n\n**Priority Corridors**:\n- Must be designated by City of Pensacola by December 31, 2025\n- If not designated, use the two corridors with highest 2024 KSI counts\n- Corridors must be within city limits\n- Minimum 1 mile length each\n\n**Data Requirements**:\n- Official law enforcement crash statistics\n- Must use consistent reporting standards throughout period\n- Include all crashes on corridor regardless of fault\n- Pedestrian, bicycle, and vehicle incidents all count\n\n**Three-Year Rolling Average Example**:\n- 2024-2026 baseline: (2024 KSI + 2025 KSI + 2026 KSI) / 3\n- 2026-2028 target: (2026 KSI + 2027 KSI + 2028 KSI) / 3\n- Note: 2026 counts in both averages\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. Pensacola Police Department official statistics\n2. Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles crash database\n3. City of Pensacola Vision Zero or safety reports\n4. Escambia County Sheriff's Office (if applicable)\n5. FDOT District 3 crash data\n\n**Geographic Boundaries**:\n- Full corridor length within city limits\n- Intersections at both ends included\n- Side street crashes within 250 feet of corridor count\n\n**What Counts as \"Seriously Injured\"**:\n- Incapacitating injury per police report\n- Hospital admission (not just ER visit)\n- Injuries preventing normal activities\n- Based on officer assessment at scene\n\n**Resolution Requirements**:\n- Both corridors must achieve 30% reduction individually\n- If one achieves 30% and other doesn't: Resolves NO\n- Combined average not sufficient - each must meet target\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If city limits change: Use 2024 boundaries\n- If corridor is reconstructed/closed: Use available data\n- If reporting standards change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing data: Interpolate if <3 months, otherwise AMBIGUOUS\n- If no corridors designated and no clear top 2: AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed" }, { "id": 39263, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "url_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "slug": "bruce-beach-phase-complete-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.163557Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.728321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:24.118714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38605, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.164008Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the next phase of Bruce Beach redevelopment is completed and open to public use by December 31, 2027.\n\n**\"Next Phase\" Definition**:\nThe next major construction phase as defined in official city plans, following any work completed before January 1, 2025. Must include at least $1 million in improvements.\n\n**\"Completed\" Requires** (must meet 4 of 6):\n1. Playground or recreation equipment installed\n2. Trails or pathways constructed\n3. Stormwater/resilience infrastructure operational\n4. Pavilions or structures built\n5. Shoreline improvements finished\n6. Parking/access improvements done\n\n**\"Open to the Public\"**:\n- Physical barriers removed\n- Official opening announcement or ceremony\n- Regular public access permitted\n- Amenities available for use\n- No construction fencing restricting access\n\n**What Counts as Phase Completion**:\n- All major elements in phase plan constructed\n- City acceptance of contractor work\n- Certificate of completion or similar documentation\n- Ribbon cutting or official opening event\n- Public use commenced\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Partial completion with major elements unfinished\n- Soft opening with construction ongoing\n- Temporary opening for events only\n- Plans or renderings without construction\n- Minor maintenance or repairs\n- Work outside defined phase boundaries\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola official announcements\n- Parks & Recreation Department confirmation\n- Local news coverage of opening\n- City Council minutes accepting completion\n- Photographic evidence of completed amenities\n- Public works or contractor completion certificates\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Bruce Beach park boundaries\n- Connected amenities on adjacent property count if part of phase plan\n\n**Timing Clarification**:\n- Must be completed AND open by 11:59 PM CST December 31, 2027\n- If opens then closes for repairs: Still counts as YES\n- If substantially complete but minor items remain: Counts as YES if open\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If phase is split into sub-phases: First sub-phase completion counts\n- Storm damage after opening: Still resolves YES\n- If site is open but some amenities restricted: YES if majority accessible\n- Multiple phases ongoing: Count the first to complete", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities." }, { "id": 39262, "title": "Will at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafés open, directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "url_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "slug": "three-zoning-enabled-stores-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923564Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.901965Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:14.286736Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": 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corner stores or cafés open, directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923983Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafés, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafés as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafés and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafés (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/café\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafés and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafés open in Pensacola by December 31, 2027, where the openings were directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning.\n\n**\"Directly Enabled by Updated Zoning\"** means:\n- Location was NOT permitted for commercial use before January 1, 2025\n- Zoning change after January 1, 2025 allowed the commercial use\n- Business opened because of this zoning change\n\n**Qualifying Zoning Changes**:\n- Rezoning from residential to mixed-use\n- New overlay districts allowing commercial\n- Form-based codes permitting mixed uses\n- Text amendments adding commercial uses\n- Variance or special exception based on policy change\n\n**\"Neighborhood-Scale Corner Store or Café\"** Definition:\n- **Size**: Under 5,000 square feet\n- **Type**: Grocery/convenience store, café, coffee shop, bakery, deli\n- **Location**: Within or adjacent to primarily residential area\n- **Pedestrian-oriented**: Accessible by walking from nearby homes\n\n**\"New\" Business Requirements**:\n- Did not exist at that location before\n- Not a relocation of existing business\n- Not a rebranding of existing business\n- Opens after the zoning change\n\n**Evidence of Zoning Enablement**:\n- Business permit showing zoning classification\n- City planning documents showing zoning change\n- News coverage linking opening to zoning reform\n- Business owner statement about zoning enabling opening\n- City official confirmation of connection\n\n**What COUNTS**:\n- Coffee shop in former residential-only zone\n- Corner store in new mixed-use district\n- Café enabled by form-based code\n- Bakery in adaptive reuse building\n- Deli opened through overlay district\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Businesses in already commercial zones\n- Food trucks or mobile vendors\n- Home-based businesses without storefront\n- Businesses over 5,000 sq ft\n- Bars or primarily alcohol establishments\n- Chain stores (must be independent/franchise)\n- Businesses outside city limits\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- Must serve primarily residential neighborhood\n\n**Documentation Needed**:\n- Business license showing opening date\n- Zoning records showing classification change\n- Evidence connecting opening to zoning change\n\n**Timeline Clarification**:\n- Zoning change must occur after January 1, 2025\n- Business must open by December 31, 2027\n- Must establish causal link between zoning and opening", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafés, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafés as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafés and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafés (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/café\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafés and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027" }, { "id": 39261, "title": "Will three resilience hubs (multi-use facilities for emergencies) be operational within Pensacola by August 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "url_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "slug": "three-resilience-hubs-by-aug-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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(multi-use facilities for emergencies) be operational within Pensacola by August 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:46.688936Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-09-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if three or more resilience hubs are operational within Pensacola city limits by August 31, 2027.\n\n**Definition of \"Resilience Hub\"**:\n\nMust meet ALL core requirements:\n\n1. **Multi-use Facility**: Serves community functions during normal operations AND designated emergency support center\n\n2. **Emergency Infrastructure** (must have 4 of 6):\n - Backup power (generator ≥48 hours OR solar + battery)\n - HVAC system for cooling/heating\n - Water access and restrooms\n - Communications (wifi/internet + charging stations)\n - ADA accessible\n - Kitchen or food service capability\n\n3. **Operational Readiness**:\n - Written emergency operations plan\n - Trained staff or volunteers identified\n - Coordination agreement with city/county emergency management\n - Publicly announced as resilience hub\n\n4. **Public Access**:\n - Open to general public during emergencies\n - No membership or fee required for emergency use\n - Regular community programming when not activated\n\n**\"Operational\" Definition**:\n- Facility upgrades complete\n- Equipment installed and tested\n- Staff/volunteers trained\n- At least one drill or exercise completed\n- Officially designated by city as resilience hub\n- Ready for activation (not necessarily activated)\n\n**Qualifying Facilities**:\n- Community centers\n- Schools (with public access agreement)\n- Libraries\n- Faith-based facilities (if publicly accessible)\n- Recreation centers\n- Repurposed buildings\n- New construction\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Traditional emergency shelters only\n- Private facilities without public access\n- Facilities outside city limits\n- Mobile/temporary structures\n- Facilities without year-round community use\n- Cooling/warming centers without other hub features\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola emergency management designation\n- City council resolutions or mayor announcements\n- Emergency management plan updates listing hubs\n- News coverage of hub openings/designation\n- City website listing of resilience hubs\n- FEMA or state grant award documentation\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- All three must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, count facilities within 2024 boundaries\n\n**Timing**:\n- Must be operational by 11:59 PM CST August 31, 2027\n- August deadline ensures readiness for peak hurricane season", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike" }, { "id": 39260, "title": "Will construction begin on at least 200 affordable (≤60% AMI) rental units in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "200 Affordable Units Started by 2027?", "url_title": "200 Affordable Units Started by 2027?", "slug": "200-affordable-units-started-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:44.459308Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.885144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:04:15.007266Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38602, "title": "Will construction begin on at least 200 affordable (≤60% AMI) rental units in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:44.459724Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola faces an affordable housing crisis that threatens to undermine its economic growth and community stability. With median rents rising faster than incomes and workforce housing increasingly scarce, the need for affordable rental units has reached critical levels. The target of 200 new affordable units represents a meaningful step toward addressing this challenge.\n\n**The Affordability Crisis**\n\nCurrent conditions in Pensacola:\n- Median rent increased 35% from 2020-2024\n- Over 50% of renters are cost-burdened (paying >30% of income)\n- Minimum wage workers need 80+ hours/week to afford median 1-bedroom\n- Waitlists for existing affordable housing exceed 2 years\n- Teachers, nurses, and first responders struggle to find housing\n\n**Understanding 60% AMI**\n\nArea Median Income (AMI) for Pensacola MSA (2024):\n- 1 person: $54,450 (60% = $32,670)\n- 2 person: $62,200 (60% = $37,320)\n- 3 person: $70,000 (60% = $42,000)\n- 4 person: $77,750 (60% = $46,650)\n\nAt 60% AMI, maximum affordable rents would be approximately:\n- Studio: $816/month\n- 1-bedroom: $875/month\n- 2-bedroom: $1,050/month\n- 3-bedroom: $1,213/month\n\nCompare to current market rents:\n- 1-bedroom market rate: $1,400-1,800\n- 2-bedroom market rate: $1,800-2,400\n\n**Why 200 Units Matter**\n\nWhile Pensacola needs thousands of affordable units, 200 represents:\n- Approximately 2-3 typical affordable housing developments\n- Housing for 500-600 residents\n- $40-60 million in development investment\n- 300+ construction jobs\n- Proof of concept for larger initiatives\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources converging:\n- **Federal**: HOME, CDBG, Section 8 project-based vouchers\n- **State**: SAIL (State Apartment Incentive Loan), Florida Housing Finance Corporation\n- **Local**: Housing trust funds, CRA funds, general obligation bonds\n- **Tax Credits**: 9% and 4% Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC)\n- **Private**: Opportunity Zone investments, ESG-focused capital\n\n**Potential Development Sites**\n\nSeveral locations could accommodate affordable housing:\n- Former shopping centers ripe for redevelopment\n- Vacant lots in established neighborhoods\n- Underutilized commercial corridors\n- City-owned land available for development\n- Religious institution partnerships\n- Transit-oriented development opportunities\n\n**Development Models**\n\n**Traditional LIHTC Projects**:\n- 50-100 units per development\n- Mix of income levels (often 30-80% AMI)\n- 15-30 year affordability commitments\n- Professional property management\n\n**Public-Private Partnerships**:\n- City land contribution reduces costs\n- Mixed-income to ensure sustainability\n- Community land trusts for permanent affordability\n- Employer-assisted housing programs\n\n**Innovative Approaches**:\n- Modular construction reducing costs 20-30%\n- Adaptive reuse of existing buildings\n- Micro-units for single workers\n- Co-housing and shared equity models\n\n**Barriers to Development**\n\nChallenges that must be overcome:\n- **Financial**: Gap between development costs and supportable rents\n- **Regulatory**: Zoning restrictions, parking requirements, lengthy approvals\n- **Community**: NIMBY opposition to affordable housing\n- **Market**: Rising construction costs and interest rates\n- **Capacity**: Limited experienced affordable housing developers locally\n\n**Policy Tools Available**\n\nCities successfully creating affordable housing use:\n- Inclusionary zoning requirements\n- Density bonuses for affordable units\n- Expedited permitting for affordable projects\n- Property tax abatements\n- Fee waivers for affordable development\n- Land banking and disposition programs\n\n**The Ripple Effects**\n\n200 new affordable units would:\n- **Economic**: Keep $2-3 million annually in local economy\n- **Workforce**: Help retain essential workers\n- **Education**: Reduce student mobility improving outcomes\n- **Health**: Decrease homelessness and housing instability\n- **Equity**: Provide opportunity in high-resource neighborhoods\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns that 200 units will begin construction:\n- LIHTC award announcements (typically spring/fall)\n- City council approval of funding or land disposition\n- Developer announcements and community meetings\n- Site preparation and demolition permits\n- Construction financing closings\n- Groundbreaking ceremony schedules\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Florida cities' recent affordable housing production:\n- St. Petersburg: 500+ units started 2023-2024\n- Gainesville: 300+ units started 2023-2024\n- Tallahassee: 400+ units started 2023-2024\n\nPensacola's goal of 200 units is achievable with focused effort.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if construction begins on at least 200 rental units designated as affordable at ≤60% Area Median Income (AMI) within Pensacola city limits by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Affordability Requirements**:\n- Units must be deed-restricted or legally committed to ≤60% AMI rents\n- Affordability period must be at least 15 years\n- Can include mix of incomes if 200+ units are ≤60% AMI\n- Both family and senior housing qualify\n\n**\"Construction Begin\" Definition**:\nMust have at least ONE of:\n- Building permit issued for vertical construction\n- Official groundbreaking ceremony\n- Foundation work commenced\n- Site work beyond just clearing/grading\n- Construction loan closed with work started\n\n**Qualifying Unit Types**:\n- New construction apartments or townhomes\n- Substantial rehabilitation creating additional units\n- Adaptive reuse/conversion creating new units\n- Modular or manufactured housing if permanent\n- Mixed-income if 200+ units are affordable\n\n**What Counts Toward 200**:\n- Units in single development of 200+\n- Multiple developments if combined total ≥200\n- Phases of larger project if all begin by deadline\n- Units at various AMI levels ≤60% all count\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Homeownership units (only rentals)\n- Market-rate units in mixed-income development\n- Units affordable at >60% AMI\n- Existing units being preserved (must be new/added)\n- Units outside Pensacola city limits\n- Student housing or dormitories\n- Transitional or emergency shelter beds\n- Units only \"planned\" or \"approved\" but not started\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City building permit database\n- Florida Housing Finance Corporation awards\n- Developer press releases with permits confirmed\n- Local news coverage of groundbreakings\n- City council minutes approving funding\n- Construction photos/documentation\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within official Pensacola city limits\n- If annexation occurs, units in newly annexed areas count\n- If city contracts, only units in remaining city count\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If construction starts then stops: Still counts as YES\n- If project is revised to <200 affordable: Counts actual units started\n- Multiple phases: Only count phases actually started by deadline\n- If AMI changes: Use AMI definitions at time of commitment", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola faces an affordable housing crisis that threatens to undermine its economic growth and community stability. With median rents rising faster than incomes and workforce housing increasingly scarce, the need for affordable rental units has reached critical levels. The target of 200 new affordable units represents a meaningful step toward addressing this challenge.\n\n**The Affordability Crisis**\n\nCurrent conditions in Pensacola:\n- Median rent increased 35% from 2020-2024\n- Over 50% of renters are cost-burdened (paying >30% of income)\n- Minimum wage workers need 80+ hours/week to afford median 1-bedroom\n- Waitlists for existing affordable housing exceed 2 years\n- Teachers, nurses, and first responders struggle to find housing\n\n**Understanding 60% AMI**\n\nArea Median Income (AMI) for Pensacola MSA (2024):\n- 1 person: $54,450 (60% = $32,670)\n- 2 person: $62,200 (60% = $37,320)\n- 3 person: $70,000 (60% = $42,000)\n- 4 person: $77,750 (60% = $46,650)\n\nAt 60% AMI, maximum affordable rents would be approximately:\n- Studio: $816/month\n- 1-bedroom: $875/month\n- 2-bedroom: $1,050/month\n- 3-bedroom: $1,213/month\n\nCompare to current market rents:\n- 1-bedroom market rate: $1,400-1,800\n- 2-bedroom market rate: $1,800-2,400\n\n**Why 200 Units Matter**\n\nWhile Pensacola needs thousands of affordable units, 200 represents:\n- Approximately 2-3 typical affordable housing developments\n- Housing for 500-600 residents\n- $40-60 million in development investment\n- 300+ construction jobs\n- Proof of concept for larger initiatives\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources converging:\n- **Federal**: HOME, CDBG, Section 8 project-based vouchers\n- **State**: SAIL (State Apartment Incentive Loan), Florida Housing Finance Corporation\n- **Local**: Housing trust funds, CRA funds, general obligation bonds\n- **Tax Credits**: 9% and 4% Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC)\n- **Private**: Opportunity Zone investments, ESG-focused capital\n\n**Potential Development Sites**\n\nSeveral locations could accommodate affordable housing:\n- Former shopping centers ripe for redevelopment\n- Vacant lots in established neighborhoods\n- Underutilized commercial corridors\n- City-owned land available for development\n- Religious institution partnerships\n- Transit-oriented development opportunities\n\n**Development Models**\n\n**Traditional LIHTC Projects**:\n- 50-100 units per development\n- Mix of income levels (often 30-80% AMI)\n- 15-30 year affordability commitments\n- Professional property management\n\n**Public-Private Partnerships**:\n- City land contribution reduces costs\n- Mixed-income to ensure sustainability\n- Community land trusts for permanent affordability\n- Employer-assisted housing programs\n\n**Innovative Approaches**:\n- Modular construction reducing costs 20-30%\n- Adaptive reuse of existing buildings\n- Micro-units for single workers\n- Co-housing and shared equity models\n\n**Barriers to Development**\n\nChallenges that must be overcome:\n- **Financial**: Gap between development costs and supportable rents\n- **Regulatory**: Zoning restrictions, parking requirements, lengthy approvals\n- **Community**: NIMBY opposition to affordable housing\n- **Market**: Rising construction costs and interest rates\n- **Capacity**: Limited experienced affordable housing developers locally\n\n**Policy Tools Available**\n\nCities successfully creating affordable housing use:\n- Inclusionary zoning requirements\n- Density bonuses for affordable units\n- Expedited permitting for affordable projects\n- Property tax abatements\n- Fee waivers for affordable development\n- Land banking and disposition programs\n\n**The Ripple Effects**\n\n200 new affordable units would:\n- **Economic**: Keep $2-3 million annually in local economy\n- **Workforce**: Help retain essential workers\n- **Education**: Reduce student mobility improving outcomes\n- **Health**: Decrease homelessness and housing instability\n- **Equity**: Provide opportunity in high-resource neighborhoods\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns that 200 units will begin construction:\n- LIHTC award announcements (typically spring/fall)\n- City council approval of funding or land disposition\n- Developer announcements and community meetings\n- Site preparation and demolition permits\n- Construction financing closings\n- Groundbreaking ceremony schedules\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Florida cities' recent affordable housing production:\n- St. Petersburg: 500+ units started 2023-2024\n- Gainesville: 300+ units started 2023-2024\n- Tallahassee: 400+ units started 2023-2024\n\nPensacola's goal of 200 units is achievable with focused effort." }, { "id": 39259, "title": "Will the Port of Pensacola publish and begin executing an official blue economy plan by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Port Blue Economy Plan by 2027?", "url_title": "Port Blue Economy Plan by 2027?", "slug": "port-blue-economy-plan-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:42.249735Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.434316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:04:03.396873Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38601, "title": "Will the Port of Pensacola publish and begin executing an official blue economy plan by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:42.250163Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Port of Pensacola sits at a critical juncture. As traditional port activities evolve and climate challenges mount, ports worldwide are embracing \"blue economy\" strategies that balance economic growth with ocean sustainability. For Pensacola's port, this transition could unlock new opportunities while protecting the marine resources that define the region.\n\n**What is the Blue Economy?**\n\nThe blue economy encompasses sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth while preserving marine ecosystems. For ports, this means:\n- Sustainable shipping and logistics\n- Marine renewable energy development\n- Aquaculture and sustainable fisheries\n- Marine biotechnology and research\n- Eco-tourism and recreation\n- Coastal resilience and restoration\n- Ocean technology innovation\n\n**Current Port Status**\n\nThe Port of Pensacola currently operates as:\n- A working waterfront with cargo operations\n- Home to marine repair and shipbuilding\n- Tourist destination with cruise potential\n- Mixed industrial and commercial uses\n- Gateway to Pensacola Bay's marine resources\n\nHowever, without a coordinated blue economy strategy, the port risks:\n- Missing emerging market opportunities\n- Continued environmental degradation\n- Loss of competitiveness to forward-thinking ports\n- Conflicts between industrial and sustainable uses\n\n**Why Blue Economy Planning Matters Now**\n\n1. **Federal Momentum**: Biden administration's Ocean Climate Action Plan prioritizes blue economy\n2. **Funding Opportunities**: NOAA, EPA, and DOT grants favor blue economy projects\n3. **Regional Competition**: Gulf ports from Tampa to Mobile developing sustainability plans\n4. **Climate Imperative**: Sea level rise and storms threaten traditional port operations\n5. **Economic Diversification**: Over-reliance on single industries creates vulnerability\n\n**Potential Blue Economy Initiatives**\n\nA comprehensive plan might include:\n\n**Sustainable Port Operations**:\n- Shore power for vessels (reducing emissions)\n- Green shipping corridors\n- Alternative fuel infrastructure\n- Circular economy waste management\n\n**Marine Innovation District**:\n- Ocean technology incubators\n- Marine research facilities\n- Aquaculture demonstration projects\n- Blue biotech companies\n\n**Eco-Tourism Enhancement**:\n- Sustainable cruise operations\n- Marine education centers\n- Diving and water sports hubs\n- Historic maritime attractions\n\n**Working Waterfront Preservation**:\n- Sustainable fishing fleet support\n- Seafood processing modernization\n- Boat building and repair expansion\n- Maritime workforce training\n\n**Coastal Resilience Integration**:\n- Living shoreline projects\n- Oyster reef restoration\n- Nature-based storm protection\n- Water quality improvement systems\n\n**What Constitutes a Blue Economy Plan**\n\nA qualifying plan would typically include:\n- Vision and goals for sustainable ocean economy\n- Stakeholder engagement process\n- Market analysis and opportunities\n- Specific project proposals\n- Implementation timeline\n- Funding strategies\n- Performance metrics\n- Governance structure\n\n**Stakeholder Alignment**\n\nSuccess requires coordination among:\n- Port Authority leadership\n- City and County governments\n- Marine industries and businesses\n- Environmental organizations\n- Research institutions (UWF Marine Science)\n- Tourism and hospitality sector\n- Commercial and recreational fishing\n- Military (Naval Air Station)\n\n**Economic Potential**\n\nBlue economy sectors show strong growth:\n- Marine renewable energy: 8% annual growth\n- Sustainable aquaculture: 5.3% annual growth\n- Marine biotechnology: $6.4 billion globally\n- Eco-tourism: 20% annual growth in coastal areas\n\nFor Pensacola, even capturing a small share could mean:\n- Hundreds of new jobs\n- Millions in annual revenue\n- Improved environmental health\n- Enhanced quality of life\n\n**Implementation Indicators**\n\n\"Beginning execution\" would be evidenced by:\n- Hiring of blue economy coordinator or team\n- Launch of specific pilot projects\n- Release of RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- Partnership agreements signed\n- Grant applications submitted\n- Public-private ventures initiated\n- Infrastructure investments begun\n\n**Barriers to Overcome**\n\n- Competing visions for port development\n- Funding gaps for transformation\n- Regulatory complexity\n- Industry resistance to change\n- Environmental cleanup needs\n- Infrastructure limitations\n- Political will and leadership changes", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the Port of Pensacola both publishes an official blue economy plan AND demonstrates beginning of execution by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Part 1: Publishing Requirements**\n\nThe plan must be:\n- **Official**: Formally adopted by Port of Pensacola authority/board\n- **Public**: Available on website or through public records\n- **Comprehensive**: Addressing at least 3 blue economy sectors\n- **Strategic**: Including goals, timeline, and implementation approach\n\n**Qualifying Blue Economy Sectors** (must address 3+):\n1. Sustainable shipping/logistics\n2. Marine renewable energy\n3. Aquaculture/fisheries\n4. Marine biotechnology/research\n5. Eco-tourism/recreation\n6. Coastal resilience/restoration\n7. Ocean technology/innovation\n8. Blue carbon initiatives\n9. Marine education/workforce\n\n**Part 2: Execution Requirements**\n\nMust demonstrate at least 2 of the following:\n- **Staffing**: Hiring blue economy coordinator/director/team\n- **Projects**: Launching specific project from plan (with evidence)\n- **Procurement**: Issuing RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- **Funding**: Securing grants or budget allocation for plan items\n- **Partnerships**: Executing MOUs/agreements for plan implementation\n- **Infrastructure**: Beginning construction/installation of blue economy infrastructure\n- **Programs**: Starting new programs outlined in plan\n\n**What Qualifies as \"Port of Pensacola\"**:\n- Pensacola Port Authority\n- City of Pensacola Port operations\n- Joint port authority if includes Pensacola\n- Successor organization to current port authority\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- Port authority meeting minutes/resolutions\n- Published plan documents\n- Press releases or announcements\n- News coverage with official confirmation\n- Grant award notices\n- Contract/RFP documents\n- Job postings for blue economy positions\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Studies or assessments without implementation plan\n- Plans covering only traditional port operations\n- Regional plans not specific to Pensacola port\n- Draft plans not formally adopted\n- Private company plans for port tenants\n- City or county plans not specific to port\n\n**Timeline**: Both publication AND execution evidence must occur by December 31, 2027", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39259, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Port of Pensacola sits at a critical juncture. As traditional port activities evolve and climate challenges mount, ports worldwide are embracing \"blue economy\" strategies that balance economic growth with ocean sustainability. For Pensacola's port, this transition could unlock new opportunities while protecting the marine resources that define the region.\n\n**What is the Blue Economy?**\n\nThe blue economy encompasses sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth while preserving marine ecosystems. For ports, this means:\n- Sustainable shipping and logistics\n- Marine renewable energy development\n- Aquaculture and sustainable fisheries\n- Marine biotechnology and research\n- Eco-tourism and recreation\n- Coastal resilience and restoration\n- Ocean technology innovation\n\n**Current Port Status**\n\nThe Port of Pensacola currently operates as:\n- A working waterfront with cargo operations\n- Home to marine repair and shipbuilding\n- Tourist destination with cruise potential\n- Mixed industrial and commercial uses\n- Gateway to Pensacola Bay's marine resources\n\nHowever, without a coordinated blue economy strategy, the port risks:\n- Missing emerging market opportunities\n- Continued environmental degradation\n- Loss of competitiveness to forward-thinking ports\n- Conflicts between industrial and sustainable uses\n\n**Why Blue Economy Planning Matters Now**\n\n1. **Federal Momentum**: Biden administration's Ocean Climate Action Plan prioritizes blue economy\n2. **Funding Opportunities**: NOAA, EPA, and DOT grants favor blue economy projects\n3. **Regional Competition**: Gulf ports from Tampa to Mobile developing sustainability plans\n4. **Climate Imperative**: Sea level rise and storms threaten traditional port operations\n5. **Economic Diversification**: Over-reliance on single industries creates vulnerability\n\n**Potential Blue Economy Initiatives**\n\nA comprehensive plan might include:\n\n**Sustainable Port Operations**:\n- Shore power for vessels (reducing emissions)\n- Green shipping corridors\n- Alternative fuel infrastructure\n- Circular economy waste management\n\n**Marine Innovation District**:\n- Ocean technology incubators\n- Marine research facilities\n- Aquaculture demonstration projects\n- Blue biotech companies\n\n**Eco-Tourism Enhancement**:\n- Sustainable cruise operations\n- Marine education centers\n- Diving and water sports hubs\n- Historic maritime attractions\n\n**Working Waterfront Preservation**:\n- Sustainable fishing fleet support\n- Seafood processing modernization\n- Boat building and repair expansion\n- Maritime workforce training\n\n**Coastal Resilience Integration**:\n- Living shoreline projects\n- Oyster reef restoration\n- Nature-based storm protection\n- Water quality improvement systems\n\n**What Constitutes a Blue Economy Plan**\n\nA qualifying plan would typically include:\n- Vision and goals for sustainable ocean economy\n- Stakeholder engagement process\n- Market analysis and opportunities\n- Specific project proposals\n- Implementation timeline\n- Funding strategies\n- Performance metrics\n- Governance structure\n\n**Stakeholder Alignment**\n\nSuccess requires coordination among:\n- Port Authority leadership\n- City and County governments\n- Marine industries and businesses\n- Environmental organizations\n- Research institutions (UWF Marine Science)\n- Tourism and hospitality sector\n- Commercial and recreational fishing\n- Military (Naval Air Station)\n\n**Economic Potential**\n\nBlue economy sectors show strong growth:\n- Marine renewable energy: 8% annual growth\n- Sustainable aquaculture: 5.3% annual growth\n- Marine biotechnology: $6.4 billion globally\n- Eco-tourism: 20% annual growth in coastal areas\n\nFor Pensacola, even capturing a small share could mean:\n- Hundreds of new jobs\n- Millions in annual revenue\n- Improved environmental health\n- Enhanced quality of life\n\n**Implementation Indicators**\n\n\"Beginning execution\" would be evidenced by:\n- Hiring of blue economy coordinator or team\n- Launch of specific pilot projects\n- Release of RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- Partnership agreements signed\n- Grant applications submitted\n- Public-private ventures initiated\n- Infrastructure investments begun\n\n**Barriers to Overcome**\n\n- Competing visions for port development\n- Funding gaps for transformation\n- Regulatory complexity\n- Industry resistance to change\n- Environmental cleanup needs\n- Infrastructure limitations\n- Political will and leadership changes" }, { "id": 39258, "title": "Will two new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities (such as community centers, skateparks, or learning spaces) open for regular public use in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Two Youth Facilities by 2027?", "url_title": "Two Youth Facilities by 2027?", "slug": "two-youth-facilities-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:40.003690Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.069737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:03:53.153114Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38600, "title": "Will two new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities (such as community centers, skateparks, or learning spaces) open for regular public use in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:40.004101Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola's young people represent the city's future, yet they often lack dedicated spaces for recreation, learning, and social connection. While the city has parks and some recreational facilities, there's a critical gap in modern, purpose-built spaces specifically designed for youth and teen engagement.\n\n**The Current Youth Infrastructure Gap**\n\nPensacola's existing youth facilities face several challenges:\n- Aging community centers with limited teen-specific programming\n- Few safe, supervised spaces open during after-school and evening hours\n- Limited facilities in underserved neighborhoods\n- Lack of modern amenities that appeal to today's youth\n\nThis matters because research consistently shows that quality youth facilities:\n- Reduce juvenile crime by up to 30%\n- Improve academic outcomes and graduation rates\n- Build community connections and civic engagement\n- Provide critical support during formative years\n\n**What Qualifies as Youth/Teen-Oriented Facilities**\n\n**Community Centers with Youth Focus**:\n- Dedicated teen rooms or wings\n- After-school programming spaces\n- Computer labs and maker spaces\n- Music/art studios\n- Sports courts or fitness areas\n- Study rooms and tutoring spaces\n\n**Skateparks and Action Sports Facilities**:\n- Concrete or modular skateparks\n- BMX tracks or pump tracks\n- Parkour training areas\n- Climbing walls\n- Multi-use courts for street sports\n\n**Learning and Innovation Spaces**:\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers\n- Digital media labs\n- Entrepreneurship incubators for youth\n- Environmental education centers\n- Career readiness centers\n- Library teen spaces (if substantially expanded)\n\n**The Growing Momentum**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2027 a promising period:\n\n1. **Federal Funding**: American Rescue Plan Act funds available for youth facilities\n2. **State Programs**: Florida's youth development grants expanding\n3. **Community Support**: Recent surveys show youth facilities as top priority\n4. **Partner Organizations**: YMCA, Boys & Girls Clubs, and others seeking expansion\n5. **Economic Development**: Youth retention seen as key to city's future\n\n**Potential Projects Already in Discussion**\n\n- West Pensacola Community Center renovation and expansion\n- Proposed skatepark at Hollice T. Williams Park\n- Youth innovation hub in downtown\n- Conversion of vacant schools to community centers\n- Partnership facilities with Escambia County Schools\n- YMCA or Boys & Girls Club new locations\n\n**What \"Substantially Upgraded\" Means**\n\nFor existing facilities to count as substantially upgraded:\n- Minimum $500,000 investment\n- Addition of at least 3,000 square feet OR\n- Complete renovation of existing space for youth use\n- New youth-specific amenities not previously available\n- Extended hours or programming for teens\n\n**The Community Impact**\n\nInvestment in youth facilities delivers multiple benefits:\n\n**Public Safety**: Structured activities during peak crime hours (3-6 PM)\n**Economic**: Workforce development and youth retention\n**Health**: Physical activity and mental health support\n**Equity**: Access for all regardless of family income\n**Community**: Bridging divides between neighborhoods\n\n**Funding Strategies**\n\nCities successfully building youth facilities combine:\n- Federal/state grants (often 50-80% of costs)\n- Local bond initiatives or CRA funds\n- Private philanthropy and naming rights\n- Public-private partnerships\n- Corporate sponsorships\n- Operating partnerships with nonprofits\n\n**Why Two Facilities Matter**\n\nTwo facilities would:\n- Serve different geographic areas of the city\n- Provide diverse types of youth spaces\n- Demonstrate sustained commitment, not just one-off project\n- Create network effects and peer learning\n- Reach critical mass for community impact", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if two or more new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities open for regular public use within Pensacola city limits by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Qualifying Facilities Must Be**:\n1. **Youth/Teen-Oriented**: Primary purpose or substantial portion (≥40%) dedicated to serving ages 10-18\n2. **Public**: Open to general public (not private clubs requiring paid membership)\n3. **Regular Use**: Operating at least 20 hours per week, year-round (excluding holidays)\n4. **Within City Limits**: Located within official Pensacola city boundaries\n\n**Types of Qualifying Facilities**:\n- Community centers with dedicated youth programming/space\n- Skateparks (concrete or modular, minimum 5,000 sq ft)\n- Teen centers or youth centers\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers for youth\n- Maker spaces or innovation labs for youth\n- Boys & Girls Clubs (if new location)\n- YMCA facilities (if new or substantially upgraded)\n- Library teen spaces (if new or substantially expanded)\n- Youth sports complexes (if multi-use beyond single sport)\n- Environmental or outdoor education centers for youth\n\n**\"New\" Facility Definition**:\n- Brand new construction OR\n- Conversion of non-youth facility to youth use OR\n- Expansion creating new youth facility within existing building\n\n**\"Substantially Upgraded\" Definition** (must meet 2 of 4):\n- Investment of $500,000+ in youth-specific improvements\n- Addition of 3,000+ square feet for youth use\n- Complete renovation of existing youth space\n- Addition of 3+ new youth program types not previously offered\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Schools or school facilities (unless open for community use after hours)\n- Private clubs requiring paid membership for access\n- Single-sport facilities (unless part of larger youth complex)\n- Playgrounds without structured programming\n- Facilities outside city limits\n- Minor upgrades or routine maintenance\n- Facilities not yet open for regular public use\n- Temporary or seasonal facilities\n\n**Evidence of Opening**:\n- Official ribbon cutting or grand opening announcement\n- City press release or website confirmation\n- Local news coverage of opening\n- Posted operating hours and active programming\n- Social media or website showing regular operations\n\n**Resolution Date**: \n- Facilities must be open and operating by 11:59 PM CST December 31, 2027\n- \"Open\" means accepting youth participants, not just building completion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola's young people represent the city's future, yet they often lack dedicated spaces for recreation, learning, and social connection. While the city has parks and some recreational facilities, there's a critical gap in modern, purpose-built spaces specifically designed for youth and teen engagement.\n\n**The Current Youth Infrastructure Gap**\n\nPensacola's existing youth facilities face several challenges:\n- Aging community centers with limited teen-specific programming\n- Few safe, supervised spaces open during after-school and evening hours\n- Limited facilities in underserved neighborhoods\n- Lack of modern amenities that appeal to today's youth\n\nThis matters because research consistently shows that quality youth facilities:\n- Reduce juvenile crime by up to 30%\n- Improve academic outcomes and graduation rates\n- Build community connections and civic engagement\n- Provide critical support during formative years\n\n**What Qualifies as Youth/Teen-Oriented Facilities**\n\n**Community Centers with Youth Focus**:\n- Dedicated teen rooms or wings\n- After-school programming spaces\n- Computer labs and maker spaces\n- Music/art studios\n- Sports courts or fitness areas\n- Study rooms and tutoring spaces\n\n**Skateparks and Action Sports Facilities**:\n- Concrete or modular skateparks\n- BMX tracks or pump tracks\n- Parkour training areas\n- Climbing walls\n- Multi-use courts for street sports\n\n**Learning and Innovation Spaces**:\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers\n- Digital media labs\n- Entrepreneurship incubators for youth\n- Environmental education centers\n- Career readiness centers\n- Library teen spaces (if substantially expanded)\n\n**The Growing Momentum**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2027 a promising period:\n\n1. **Federal Funding**: American Rescue Plan Act funds available for youth facilities\n2. **State Programs**: Florida's youth development grants expanding\n3. **Community Support**: Recent surveys show youth facilities as top priority\n4. **Partner Organizations**: YMCA, Boys & Girls Clubs, and others seeking expansion\n5. **Economic Development**: Youth retention seen as key to city's future\n\n**Potential Projects Already in Discussion**\n\n- West Pensacola Community Center renovation and expansion\n- Proposed skatepark at Hollice T. Williams Park\n- Youth innovation hub in downtown\n- Conversion of vacant schools to community centers\n- Partnership facilities with Escambia County Schools\n- YMCA or Boys & Girls Club new locations\n\n**What \"Substantially Upgraded\" Means**\n\nFor existing facilities to count as substantially upgraded:\n- Minimum $500,000 investment\n- Addition of at least 3,000 square feet OR\n- Complete renovation of existing space for youth use\n- New youth-specific amenities not previously available\n- Extended hours or programming for teens\n\n**The Community Impact**\n\nInvestment in youth facilities delivers multiple benefits:\n\n**Public Safety**: Structured activities during peak crime hours (3-6 PM)\n**Economic**: Workforce development and youth retention\n**Health**: Physical activity and mental health support\n**Equity**: Access for all regardless of family income\n**Community**: Bridging divides between neighborhoods\n\n**Funding Strategies**\n\nCities successfully building youth facilities combine:\n- Federal/state grants (often 50-80% of costs)\n- Local bond initiatives or CRA funds\n- Private philanthropy and naming rights\n- Public-private partnerships\n- Corporate sponsorships\n- Operating partnerships with nonprofits\n\n**Why Two Facilities Matter**\n\nTwo facilities would:\n- Serve different geographic areas of the city\n- Provide diverse types of youth spaces\n- Demonstrate sustained commitment, not just one-off project\n- Create network effects and peer learning\n- Reach critical mass for community impact" }, { "id": 39237, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-uk-economy-grow-by-at-least-2-in-any-year-of-the-59th-parliament", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.644665Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.601140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:01.069779Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38579, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.645072Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:15.797349Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 06:18:06 is higher than 47.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39237, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35244680851063825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_score": 1.368586748092271, "coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "weighted_coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "spot_peer_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_archived_score": 1.368586748092271, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`" }, { "id": 39236, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alcatraz-house-inmates-before-2028", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623023Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.098882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.070726Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38578, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623513Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:21.902755Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524. If the community prediction on 2025-08-21 22:52:45 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39236, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.775, 0.225 ], "means": [ 0.23718750000000002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_score": 1.7611511969153844, "coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "relative_legacy_score": 0.032710939667928735, "weighted_coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "spot_peer_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_score": 63.22682154995129, "baseline_archived_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_archived_score": 1.7611511969153844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.032710939667928735, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.22682154995129 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" } ] }
