Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=80
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Trump attends in person a NATO summit held in June 2025.", "fine_print": "\"In person\" is defined as occupying the same physical space closely enough at the NATO Summit such that he can see and hear other heads of state through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves.", "post_id": 38321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749051790.828753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749051790.828753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8496077004322168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37595, "title": "Will the Northeast Japan region (Tohoku) show a month-over-month increase in April 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:48.953223Z", "open_time": "2025-06-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-04T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-04T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-25T15:43:48.535302Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-04T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-04T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": 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"title": "Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-30T17:44:27.701392Z", "open_time": "2025-06-02T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Reuters, May 2, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-russia-sanctions-over-ukraine-unclear-if-trump-will-sign-sources-say-2025-05-02/):\n\n> U.S. officials have finalized new economic sanctions against Russia, including banking and energy measures, to intensify pressure on Moscow to embrace U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to end its war on Ukraine, according to three U.S. officials and a source familiar with the issue.\n> \n> The targets include state-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom and major entities involved in the natural resources and banking sectors, said an administration official, who like the other sources requested anonymity to discuss the issue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, the US officially announces a new package, round, or tranche of economic sanctions aimed at Russia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The sanctions must be broad, targeting Russia in general (e.g., a sector-wide ban, broad export control, or multiple major entity designations announced together), as opposed to a few individuals or companies.\n* The effective date of the sanctions is irrelevant for the purposes of this question, as long as they are officially announced.\n* The announcement has to be accompanied by an official action, such as an issued Executive Order, an enacted federal bill, or a rule, determination, or directive published by Treasury (OFAC), State, or Commerce (BIS). 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the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-30T14:51:31.310673Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n\nThis question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.", "fine_print": "* The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n* A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n* The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n* If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n* This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.", "post_id": 38209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752308170.201403, "end_time": 1752887544.323, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752308170.201403, "end_time": 1752887544.323, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7257642788819695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0021507104137025754, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.36222355386822236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1961236648474275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4442506475528791, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2482628597955023, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.08457106097412946, 0.7371281929649982, 0.008989210862367118, 0.6289491114997409, 1.682356660460702, 0.9205109758799701, 1.7080642352960869, 0.27647001735568744, 0.0, 0.8320914994652736, 0.17835110271288118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5153518936135082, 1.6881818893191647, 0.0, 0.03331085633663661, 0.0, 0.04604314668505586, 0.012156317823425493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3356528321295896, 0.0, 1.280053710077998 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval." }, { "id": 38195, "title": "Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-announce-a-suspension-of-habeas-corpus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-29T14:52:42.860399Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T23:10:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:09:54.611732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:13:03Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:16:21.044630Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 37479, "title": "Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-29T14:52:42.860870Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2025, Stephen Miller, a senior advisor in the Trump administration, stated that the administration was “actively looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus to facilitate deportations, citing the constitutional provision allowing suspension [<u>“in time of invasion”</u>](https://time.com/7284743/what-is-habeas-corpus-under-threat-suspension-trump-administration/). This consideration arises amidst the administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite the deportation of individuals, particularly targeting members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The use of this wartime law has led to legal challenges and scrutiny over due process rights. The Supreme Court blocked the administration's attempt to use the AEA for deportation, emphasizing the need for adequate notice and [<u>the opportunity to challenge such actions under habeas corpus rights.</u>](https://time.com/7286140/supreme-court-immigration-aliens-act/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the executive branch announces it is suspending the writ of habeas corpus in any part of the United States.\n\nResolution will be based on an official proclamation, executive order, Department of Justice memorandum, or other formal government action explicitly suspending the writ of habeas corpus that is intended to have the force of law according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The writ of habeas corpus refers to the constitutional right of individuals to challenge the legality of their detention before a court.\n* Failures to grant habeas corpus to specific individuals or opposition to legal actions invoking habeas corpus in specific court cases will not suffice. There must be a general and formal suspension of the right.\n* Suspension of habeas corpus is not necessarily universal — for example, it may apply only to a specific group (e.g., non-citizens), a particular region (e.g., border areas), or under defined conditions (e.g., national security emergencies). Any such announced suspension would still result in a **Yes** resolution.\n* This question resolves based on an executive branch announcement of a suspension of habeas corpus that is intended to have the force of law. Therefore, its actual implementation, including such scenarios as being enjoined by courts, is immaterial for resolution.", "post_id": 38195, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752307783.96232, "end_time": 1760014047.118, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752307783.96232, "end_time": 1760014047.118, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.25904595067421093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8354703874772516, 0.027414264600835975, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 1.207944768388504, 0.4474289135536752, 0.526247751814955, 0.2453965896845887, 0.03010603556612766, 1.9561885648215924, 0.03950452060911081, 0.022614253091566634, 0.6484874078437322, 1.3579964989638222, 0.6732627673002778, 0.0, 0.20027086012739792, 0.3191073460209369, 0.36269734845126494, 1.3115762834341724, 0.0, 0.16055597978259015, 0.4295033604482731, 0.0604806447258907, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08028777048143809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13377435342824762, 0.0, 0.1139219569202182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.1130426062565061, 0.13706144637626608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03300920416665456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22541860984901807, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 1.0, 0.856822879133303, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2025, Stephen Miller, a senior advisor in the Trump administration, stated that the administration was “actively looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus to facilitate deportations, citing the constitutional provision allowing suspension [<u>“in time of invasion”</u>](https://time.com/7284743/what-is-habeas-corpus-under-threat-suspension-trump-administration/). This consideration arises amidst the administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite the deportation of individuals, particularly targeting members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The use of this wartime law has led to legal challenges and scrutiny over due process rights. The Supreme Court blocked the administration's attempt to use the AEA for deportation, emphasizing the need for adequate notice and [<u>the opportunity to challenge such actions under habeas corpus rights.</u>](https://time.com/7286140/supreme-court-immigration-aliens-act/)" }, { "id": 38192, "title": "Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "executive-branch-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-the-supreme-court-by-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-29T13:23:24.603251Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T23:10:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:14:24.218167Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:11:46.274028Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37478, "title": "Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-29T13:23:24.603738Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n\n> shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n\nAt the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n\n> The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n\nAlmost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n\n> The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n\nAt the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n\nIn another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n\n> In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n\nThe Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n\nHowever, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n\n> The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n\nSee Also:\n\n* Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n* Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either:\n\n* direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR\n* non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed.\n* Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court.", "post_id": 38192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752308053.568306, "end_time": 1752917587.318, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752308053.568306, "end_time": 1752917587.318, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.5690174549590662 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01590144797162688, 0.43048054072228364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9162788842591301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5009002530741856, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.4352821374375108, 0.4632431883235791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05578103385090212, 0.0, 0.11096823546370398, 0.2775021963486394, 0.0, 0.8105510964777773, 0.10286659318855344, 0.0, 0.06943620487934168, 0.5917253487649434, 0.38512045650815674, 0.0, 0.8808099281449313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5510589904627601, 0.7414795758911685, 0.4927652120469003, 0.0, 1.0617202805349921, 1.5266656364079183, 0.6564675046615907, 0.04974680833615912, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4100076309137433, 0.018066177615960688, 0.0, 0.012783181577003842, 0.0, 0.9113764938437954, 0.06399192752308502, 0.0, 0.006157382690986979, 0.0, 0.2596434091051626, 0.0, 0.09527191926620367, 0.0, 0.01958911193224546, 0.8454656386196404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9447863337210879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058909031357943696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3773203278634174 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n\n> shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n\nAt the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n\n> The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n\nAlmost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n\n> The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n\nAt the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n\nIn another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n\n> In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n\nThe Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n\nHowever, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n\n> The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n\nSee Also:\n\n* Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n* Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)" }, { "id": 38190, "title": "Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "ai-safety-checks-mandated-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-29T08:46:28.189944Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T23:10:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:10:10.007592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:12:54.332737Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37477, "title": "Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-29T08:46:28.190344Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n\n> The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n\nLater in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n\n> **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n\nHowever, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a federal bill is signed into law, an executive order is issued, or a federal regulation is officially adopted in the United States that legally mandates that AI companies do at least one of the following:\n\n* they conduct third-party safety evaluations of their frontier models\n* they conduct internal safety evaluations of their frontier models and share their data or results with either the US government or third parties.", "fine_print": "* This question is purposefully not defining \"frontier models\". Any such defintion by the bill, EO, or regulation would suffice to resolve this question, even if it is for a slightly different model class (e.g., \"dangerous models\"), as long as it is intended to cover all models from a capability level and above. This includes simple compute thresholds, benchmark results, or leaving the decision of what is considered a frontier model to the AI companies or the evaluators.\n* The date the bill, EO, or regulation comes into effect is immaterial for the purposes of this question. It will resolve solely based on the date the bill is signed into law, the EO is issued, or the regulation is officially adopted.\n* An Executive Order is any presidential document with an Executive Order number, published in the [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders). Orders that do not have such a number will not count for this question. (See, e.g., US Library of Congress [discussion](https://guides.loc.gov/executive-orders/order-proclamation-memorandum) of EOs compared with other presidential directives.)", "post_id": 38190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752307799.407705, "end_time": 1758361180.111, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752307799.407705, "end_time": 1758361180.111, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.32699164190975527 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.669258449433108, 0.0, 0.02464094517995897, 0.34906719769614464, 0.0, 0.04965364852711255, 0.0, 0.9042441944575869, 0.010028489695676875, 0.017957461426048017, 0.05285109232688031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.10251256047355009, 1.0921279432261826, 0.0, 0.9083500689822072, 0.1430280068146259, 0.0, 0.006278041207578156, 0.4147969946203287, 1.2380723498524953, 1.451358837753049, 1.0, 0.0, 0.044970745765200076, 0.0, 0.4259707433839336, 0.08049479647214909, 0.0, 0.07535603819939027, 0.0, 0.16202651506251406, 1.4903906519767003, 0.0, 0.11089172218023127, 0.0, 0.572602739196473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20142760006632496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5172320165738105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7570623662742828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954142518882391, 0.0, 0.4247058044294796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13958581768461387, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n\n> The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n\nLater in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n\n> **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n\nHowever, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\"." }, { "id": 38177, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-senate-vote-on-a-rescission-proposal-from-potus-by-october-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-28T15:39:07.834468Z", "published_at": "2025-05-28T20:10:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T01:53:35.310970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-28T20:10:56.536182Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T20:10:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37469, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-28T15:39:07.834858Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T20:10:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-02T20:10:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 28, 2025, and before October 1, 2025, the United States Senate conducts a floor [vote](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/voting.htm) on the passage of a rescission proposal made by the US president pursuant to the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48432).", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the Senate conducting a floor vote on the rescission bill; actual passage is not required. \n\nAn example of a vote that would count is [H.R. 3](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3) from the 115th Congress, in which the Senate on June 20, 2018 in a 48-50 Yay/Nay roll-call vote rejected President Trump's [proposed rescission](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-164/issue-74/house-section/article/H3832-1) of budget authority that was submitted on May 8, 2018.", "post_id": 38177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752269625.000597, "end_time": 1752575047.116588, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752269625.000597, "end_time": 1752575047.116588, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.682725524708331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0437146786346598 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)" }, { "id": 38171, "title": "Will a second US city ban factory farming within its boundaries by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Another US city bans factory farms by end of 2025?", "url_title": "Another US city bans factory farms by end of 2025?", "slug": "another-us-city-bans-factory-farms-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-28T14:04:12.796765Z", "published_at": "2025-06-05T07:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-04T00:33:41.162386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-05T13:21:33.410854Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T05:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T07:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 37464, "title": "Will a second US city ban factory farming within its boundaries by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-28T14:04:12.797240Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T07:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-12T07:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024 Berkley, California became the first American city to ban factory farming within its boundaries. \n\nThe ban came about because of [citizen-initiated ballot measure](https://ballotpedia.org/Berkeley,_California,_Measure_DD,_Prohibition_of_Livestock_Facilities_Measure_\\(November_2024\\)) DD: \"A \"yes\" vote supported prohibiting new and expanded livestock facilities in Berkeley, closing existing ones within a year, and imposing a \\$10,000 daily penalty for violations.\"\n\nThe ballot initiative was supported by [Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.instagram.com/directactioneverywhere/reel/DB37BfgPM1W/?hl=en) (DxE) and [Compassionate Bay](https://compassionatebay.org/berkeley-ballot \"Compassinate Bay\"). \n\nThe ban was an American first, but fell far short of DxE's roadmap to Animal Liberation that they outlined in 2016, and then [revised in 2020](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit?tab=t.0). It stated by 2025, \"California has passed a moratorium on the construction and expansion of factory farms and slaughterhouses, and is providing support to farms that transition to plant-based food production,\" among other milestones. ", "resolution_criteria": "Any city within the US, whether in a state or territory, that bans factory farms, defined as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) and has some penalty for operating one inside its boundaries. ", "fine_print": "Factory farming is defined as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) where a large amount of animals are kept for slaughter or getting products besides their flesh from them.  ", "post_id": 38171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751589210.786646, "end_time": 1754267610.627, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751589210.786646, "end_time": 1754267610.627, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024 Berkley, California became the first American city to ban factory farming within its boundaries. \n\nThe ban came about because of [citizen-initiated ballot measure](https://ballotpedia.org/Berkeley,_California,_Measure_DD,_Prohibition_of_Livestock_Facilities_Measure_\\(November_2024\\)) DD: \"A \"yes\" vote supported prohibiting new and expanded livestock facilities in Berkeley, closing existing ones within a year, and imposing a \\$10,000 daily penalty for violations.\"\n\nThe ballot initiative was supported by [Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.instagram.com/directactioneverywhere/reel/DB37BfgPM1W/?hl=en) (DxE) and [Compassionate Bay](https://compassionatebay.org/berkeley-ballot \"Compassinate Bay\"). \n\nThe ban was an American first, but fell far short of DxE's roadmap to Animal Liberation that they outlined in 2016, and then [revised in 2020](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit?tab=t.0). It stated by 2025, \"California has passed a moratorium on the construction and expansion of factory farms and slaughterhouses, and is providing support to farms that transition to plant-based food production,\" among other milestones. " }, { "id": 38166, "title": "Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?", "slug": "presidential-impoundment-authority-expanded-before-november-3-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-27T17:54:43.798505Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T23:10:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:16:11.919736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:11:20.104267Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-03T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37460, "title": "Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-27T17:54:43.799141Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-11-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-03T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-02T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-02T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n\n> When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n\nGAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n\nGAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n\nDuring President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n\n> For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n\nSenator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, limitations on presidential impoundment authority (as first set out in the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and as of its state on January 20, 2025) have been legally rescinded or modified in whole or in part so as to reduce those limitations. For the purposes of this question, at least one of the following must occur to count as impoundment authority having been \"legally rescinded or modified\", and must have the effect of granting the President of the United States greater impoundment authority:\n\n* The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the merits of presidential impoundment authority\n* The US Supreme Court declines to hear the merits of an impoundment authority case, letting a lower court ruling stand, and Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject\n* A bill is enacted", "fine_print": "* A Supreme Court decision on procedural issues or tangential topics is not sufficient on its own, only a decision on the merits of impoundment authority counts.\n* The question will only resolve as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued a final ruling on the matter, effectively ending legal challenges to the restriction. For example, if the Court denies a request to block a certain usage of presidential impoundment authority before it holds a full hearing on the merits, that does not count as a final judgment and will not resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* Metaculus will rely on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits or it is unclear whether a decision or law has expanded presidential impoundment authority.\n* A narrow court decision finding that a specific act of alleged presidential impoundment is compliant with the law is not sufficient, a court decision must rescind or modify current law in whole or in part.\n* For purposes of this question, \"impoundment\" [is defined](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) as a US president's authority to deliberately not spend funds that Congress has previously appropriated.", "post_id": 38166, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752308161.473257, "end_time": 1753316650.284771, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752308161.473257, "end_time": 1753316650.284771, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.36797126873845604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03173358396197871, 0.9409563951022198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.0, 0.0019377820149315656, 0.0, 0.057208863054134, 0.1847461188535056, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.4949904289350385, 0.19929648861183932, 0.4664206317168833, 0.5323584994881563, 0.34093414742504585, 0.7862458745765664, 1.257065682054079, 0.4028564464137617, 0.7527467374533356, 0.0, 1.2117092408978531, 0.0, 1.2575369763017576, 0.016194143319162562, 0.04949999038213665, 0.4698165516277316, 0.0, 0.9006442104169607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14043862452430395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007229492341188671, 0.0, 0.4486578390697891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.06716256407353992, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05209383699272445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020515528876469097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8849953868387631, 0.6466425724863939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056383031887875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397398838745543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08934416393676485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35667006965816783 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n\n> When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n\nGAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n\nGAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n\nDuring President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n\n> For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n\nSenator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment)." }, { "id": 38164, "title": "Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?", "short_title": "US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?", "url_title": "US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?", "slug": "us-start-building-a-nuclear-powered-data-center-on-a-military-base-before-2029", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-27T16:43:47.238220Z", "published_at": "2025-06-02T15:47:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-04T23:34:23.514525Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-02T15:47:51.866146Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T15:47:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 37459, "title": "Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-05-27T16:43:47.238616Z", "open_time": "2025-06-03T15:47:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-07T15:47:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n\nThe question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the process to build a nuclear-powered data center on a U.S. military base in the U.S. or its territories has started. The process is considered “started” when at least one of the following has happened:\n\n* a U.S. government agency or a private contractor publicly and credibly announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that construction has begun\n* a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been issued\n* project-specific funding has been approved\n* site-specific preparatory activities (e.g., environmental assessments or groundbreaking) have commenced.\n\nIf none of the above has happened before the deadline, this question will resolve as **No**, even if there is other evidence ", "fine_print": "* The data center must be intended to rely on the nuclear reactor as its primary power source. If the data center uses a hybrid power system, it qualifies as long as nuclear power provides at least 50% of its energy needs.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the project is later canceled.", "post_id": 38164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751672053.206634, "end_time": 1760269518.525315, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751672053.206634, "end_time": 1760269518.525315, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3559052553074686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.273976082073579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 1.2339571171407726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n\nThe question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure." }, { "id": 38142, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before the 2028 presidential election?", "short_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2028 election?", "url_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2028 election?", "slug": "us-government-shutdown-before-2028-election", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-25T22:49:21.760486Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:13:30.619937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:12:45.024359Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-07T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:15:36.888853Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37443, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before the 2028 presidential election?", "created_at": "2025-05-25T22:49:21.760879Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-11-07T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-07T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-11-07T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its article [Q\\&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes a government shutdown as follows:\n\n> Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n> . . .\n\n> Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected.There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nFor user reference, The History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns and The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the US presidential election of 2028, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portion of the US federal government has ceased operations, or undergone \"shutdown\", as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question, a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752308000.489554, "end_time": 1758266551.409, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752308000.489554, "end_time": 1758266551.409, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5142098615770121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0041768548738893045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33436525289072216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4389766355214183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608689831437017, 0.0, 0.17391556805192088, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.7167011434683915, 0.015244778358237942, 0.8114597489095232, 0.011871193631835357, 0.7832008404886415, 0.0, 0.9712492660009507, 0.2747964475747501, 0.0, 0.2519762019484688, 0.5053354598587614, 0.026884426431469374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10819054156401371, 0.22008466657745834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08042609513588302, 0.32534068732379473, 1.2473136612438067, 0.4691703167924072, 0.6087338181631989, 0.32315022772284324, 0.0, 0.017180449892146496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8277810773428271, 0.0, 1.5350055731436427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09959693749384557, 0.0, 0.005832286250484877, 0.16643501885914774, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.18761293738011062, 0.0, 0.0771455627522319, 0.0, 0.03663966570762298, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12724691537418747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7940812224902034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9699002506870611 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its article [Q\\&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes a government shutdown as follows:\n\n> Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n> . . .\n\n> Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected.There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nFor user reference, The History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns and The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/)." }, { "id": 38112, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-country-be-invited-to-brics-at-the-17th-brics-summit", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:08.039959Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T23:39:01.841705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37418, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:08.039959Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T23:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T23:39:01.814458Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one previously not invited country is invited to join BRICS as a full member during or before the 17th BRICS summit.\n\nThis question will only resolve based upon an invitation for full membership, not partner status or any other status in the organisation.", "fine_print": "* An invitation of a partner country to become a full member will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Reinvitation of Saudi Arabia or Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Whether or not a country accepts its invitation will have no impact on this question.\n* If the 17th BRICS summit is delayed, that will not impact this question unless the delay is to after August 31, 2025, in which case this question will be annulled.\n* The specific cutoff for resolution will be 00:00 following the final day of the summit. For example, if the summit is held as expected on July 6-7, the cutoff will be July 8, 00:00. This question will use the timezone of the summit's location, if the summit has no physical location, it will use UTC.\n* For the purposes of this question, \"country\" is defined as a UN member state.", "post_id": 38112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748709020.626733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748709020.626733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24803565198440783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8585177230099035, 0.0, 0.24468613997494018, 0.7119511623301776, 0.0, 0.3455057246259332, 0.0, 2.781459933724156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.1917561489620048, 0.8424036167081221, 0.0, 0.2674415470750466, 0.0, 0.15589515649005067, 1.883474315957379, 0.8451517062867188, 0.44279550561171177, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7984402654968452, 0.0, 0.06887619374122553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9661494913298359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8942180920825968, 0.6884363040918909, 0.10886246125459637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1010847436907371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008588258383183861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16144386612564604 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.25503263116677, "peer_score": 15.097652330941111, "coverage": 0.9879155807031526, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9879155807031526, "spot_peer_score": 14.399917548733502, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 58.25503263116677, "peer_archived_score": 15.097652330941111, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.399917548733502, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed." } ] }
