Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=840
{ "count": 6294, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=860", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=820", "results": [ { "id": 38125, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "short_title": "tariff disappear nyt wsj", "url_title": "tariff disappear nyt wsj", "slug": "tariff-disappear-nyt-wsj", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T06:00:32.422839Z", "published_at": "2025-05-24T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.457734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37431, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T06:00:32.422839Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T09:43:52.406251Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on any single day after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, the words \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\" appear on neither:\n\n* the digital version of Today’s Paper of The New York Times (accessible [here](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) - be careful to select the appropriate date in the *The Times in Print For* box)\n* the digital \"Print Edition\" of the Wall Street Journal (accessible [here](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage) - linked front page is for May 15, 2025, be careful to set the correct date in the URL, the format is: yyyy-mm-dd).", "fine_print": "* Grammar or spelling will not prevent a **No** resolution.\n* \"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\n* \"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, including \"Pages A2-A3 and Corrections\", \"What's News: Business & Finance\" not just the initial section at the top. The only sections that do not qualify are those that do not change between different front pages such as the \"Most Popular News\" or \"Recommended Videos\" sections on WSJ.", "post_id": 38125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748278782.29209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748278782.29209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5986572412290134 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8423388801235392, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.71374034392558, "peer_score": 0.37926706057356874, "coverage": 0.9776269887222181, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9776269887222181, "spot_peer_score": 1.8200553136231394, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 53.71374034392558, "peer_archived_score": 0.37926706057356874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8200553136231394, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 38112, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-country-be-invited-to-brics-at-the-17th-brics-summit", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:08.039959Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.016610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T23:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37418, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:08.039959Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T23:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T23:39:01.814458Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one previously not invited country is invited to join BRICS as a full member during or before the 17th BRICS summit.\n\nThis question will only resolve based upon an invitation for full membership, not partner status or any other status in the organisation.", "fine_print": "* An invitation of a partner country to become a full member will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Reinvitation of Saudi Arabia or Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Whether or not a country accepts its invitation will have no impact on this question.\n* If the 17th BRICS summit is delayed, that will not impact this question unless the delay is to after August 31, 2025, in which case this question will be annulled.\n* The specific cutoff for resolution will be 00:00 following the final day of the summit. For example, if the summit is held as expected on July 6-7, the cutoff will be July 8, 00:00. This question will use the timezone of the summit's location, if the summit has no physical location, it will use UTC.\n* For the purposes of this question, \"country\" is defined as a UN member state.", "post_id": 38112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748709020.626733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748709020.626733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24803565198440783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8585177230099035, 0.0, 0.24468613997494018, 0.7119511623301776, 0.0, 0.3455057246259332, 0.0, 2.781459933724156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.1917561489620048, 0.8424036167081221, 0.0, 0.2674415470750466, 0.0, 0.15589515649005067, 1.883474315957379, 0.8451517062867188, 0.44279550561171177, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7984402654968452, 0.0, 0.06887619374122553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9661494913298359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8942180920825968, 0.6884363040918909, 0.10886246125459637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1010847436907371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008588258383183861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16144386612564604 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.25503263116677, "peer_score": 15.097652330941111, "coverage": 0.9879155807031526, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9879155807031526, "spot_peer_score": 14.399917548733502, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 58.25503263116677, "peer_archived_score": 15.097652330941111, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.399917548733502, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed." }, { "id": 38111, "title": "Will a UN member country newly recognize Palestine in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-un-member-country-newly-recognize-palestine-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.900239Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.466060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T23:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37417, "title": "Will a UN member country newly recognize Palestine in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.900239Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T23:30:48.320446Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[UK joins France's initiative for recognition of Palestinian state](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/05/20/uk-joins-france-s-initiative-for-recognition-of-palestinian-state_6741456_4.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after May 31, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, a UN member country announces that it recognizes Palestine as a sovereign nation. 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Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 38092, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748539027.843649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748539027.843649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.44114834148806337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699770170287534, 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.2076148985543172, 0.12804351164029554, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0, 0.8230857706210846, 0.6356800736251341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03977831981835343, 0.6745576028193532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1807145231378893, 0.0, 0.418937989570227, 0.8931428143487806, 0.0, 1.0468913521741385, 0.10299702702416284, 0.03648615185565808, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0754658793500254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 0.6735917253874267, 0.3770540593470678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34805835094389953, 0.0, 0.0003173881331863867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8948374224172492, 0.372204641838787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006599580203028017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7996155160257796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5654667606195058, 0.0, 0.007237661463105871, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0150602432466386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30685582591597954, 0.3893908729670419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2744772724595874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04331287452455614, 0.668450178144051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 38091, "title": "Will a country sign the Artemis Accords in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-country-sign-the-artemis-accords-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.122936Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.723052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37397, "title": "Will a country sign the Artemis Accords in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.122936Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:32:38.124130Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025 and [Norway](https://www.state.gov/united-states-welcomes-norways-signing-of-the-artemis-accords/) on May 15, 2025. There are 55 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a country becomes an Artemis Accord signatory after May 30, 2025 and before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38091, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748532619.527949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6395 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748532619.527949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6395 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5000504487505147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012799377483163744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01810777154832202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6978562032252382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2059197659129008, 0.8469093040178143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5785379397317363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6375136813109524, 0.0, 0.5732909890758211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34401532613629704, 0.2904204131944944, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.0, 0.5823653821612322, 0.32941610215541206, 0.18373971926206425, 0.6650285010988738, 0.0, 0.6287855816333205, 0.0, 0.28054235495743307, 0.044581621487903636, 0.0, 1.5309571890489146, 0.37291857732980915, 0.675274710717055, 0.8007238388551874, 0.14966870988380016, 1.1577579407594198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7567875495527383, 0.44762040490108923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2724816781631971, 0.0, 0.0865900293277089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.36849772084496, "peer_score": -12.05359723371053, "coverage": 0.9870188655455907, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870188655455907, "spot_peer_score": -10.110936687638665, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -9.36849772084496, "peer_archived_score": -12.05359723371053, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.110936687638665, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025 and [Norway](https://www.state.gov/united-states-welcomes-norways-signing-of-the-artemis-accords/) on May 15, 2025. There are 55 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)" }, { "id": 38089, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-turkeys-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.112519Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.877312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:28:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37395, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.112519Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:39:54.011206Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Pedro Sánchez has a higher approval rating than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If this not the case (including due to a tie), this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748518225.020225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5465 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748518225.020225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5465 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4535, 0.5465 ], "means": [ 0.5064537546698207 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010803794281517749, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.7150025343476979, 0.0, 0.10489672558046856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025798091485427513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7570020564449573, 0.0, 0.41531370677281154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0283884897938216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2789311482851085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9787307166658133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8872963291122897, 0.0, 0.19328601389646433, 0.8469093040178143, 0.8007238388551874, 0.967729728990434, 0.675274710717055, 1.0130338072952991, 0.0, 0.0, 2.200955073057781, 0.0, 0.49450713578515443, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.8224544432267068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05254845534087888, 0.0, 0.13849716722364072, 0.5044513853022176, 0.18373971926206425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005313788500141374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048428294021351945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.700116132638378, "peer_score": 15.230508857188847, "coverage": 0.9855631457103624, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9855631457103624, "spot_peer_score": 14.494445398458511, "spot_baseline_score": 12.829340100981756, "baseline_archived_score": 13.700116132638378, "peer_archived_score": 15.230508857188847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.494445398458511, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 12.829340100981756 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. 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