Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=860
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=840", "results": [ { "id": 35991, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "U.S lifting cap on Russian oil?", "url_title": "U.S lifting cap on Russian oil?", "slug": "us-lifting-cap-on-russian-oil", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "Russell-viper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.992781Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514519Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.297346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514517Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35424, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.993113Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-21T01:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-21T01:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T18:55:40.366915Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control's current [price cap](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/27/2022-28153/russian-harmful-foreign-activities-sanctions-regulations-determination) of \\$60 per barrel on crude oil from the Russian Federation is lifted or eliminated before July 1, 2025. If it remains at \\$60 (or lower) on that date, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35991, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749569111.83019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749569111.83019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06278871861957921 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.3178790733308183, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740005697527565, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.42401196690263, "peer_score": 4.000611572075925, "coverage": 0.9993471405553545, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993471405553545, "spot_peer_score": 13.417532836694418, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 71.42401196690263, "peer_archived_score": 4.000611572075925, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.417532836694418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him." }, { "id": 35987, "title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president of South Korea by April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president?", "url_title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president?", "slug": "will-choi-sang-mok-remain-the-acting-president", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:33:34.942447Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:08.733317Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.834460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:08.733315Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35418, "title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president of South Korea by April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:33:34.942855Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:19:21.885845Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of March 10, 2025, Choi Sang-mok serves as the acting president of South Korea, following a series of political upheavals:\n\n* **December 14, 2024:** President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and suspended from office due to allegations related to a brief imposition of martial law.\n* **December 14–27, 2024:** Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assumed the role of acting president but was subsequently impeached on December 27, 2024. \n* **December 27, 2024–Present:** Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok became the acting president following Han's impeachment. \n\nThe Constitutional Court of South Korea is currently deliberating on President Yoon's impeachment. The court has up to 180 days from the impeachment date (i.e., until June 12, 2025) to reach a decision. If the court upholds the impeachment, a presidential election must be held within 60 days to elect a new president.", "resolution_criteria": "### **Resolution Criteria**\n\nThis question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **Choi Sang-mok** continues to serve as the **acting president of South Korea** on **April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**. Conversely, it will resolve **\"No\"** if, by that date and time:\n\n1. **President Yoon Suk Yeol** is **reinstated** following his impeachment trial, resuming presidential duties.\n2. **A new president** is **elected and inaugurated**, thereby ending Choi Sang-mok's acting presidency.\n3. **Another individual** assumes the role of **acting president**, replacing Choi Sang-mok.\n\nOutcome verified by at least two reputable new sources: AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, BBC etc. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35987, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069658.815505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069658.815505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7750963256312701 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0549745380698368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.27467474026865935, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.2396931538549426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4329957832828009 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -128.9862148656403, "peer_score": 22.031296746304864, "coverage": 0.9548109486147208, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9548109486147208, "spot_peer_score": 72.77193360648465, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -128.9862148656403, "peer_archived_score": 22.031296746304864, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 72.77193360648465, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of March 10, 2025, Choi Sang-mok serves as the acting president of South Korea, following a series of political upheavals:\n\n* **December 14, 2024:** President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and suspended from office due to allegations related to a brief imposition of martial law.\n* **December 14–27, 2024:** Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assumed the role of acting president but was subsequently impeached on December 27, 2024. \n* **December 27, 2024–Present:** Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok became the acting president following Han's impeachment. \n\nThe Constitutional Court of South Korea is currently deliberating on President Yoon's impeachment. The court has up to 180 days from the impeachment date (i.e., until June 12, 2025) to reach a decision. If the court upholds the impeachment, a presidential election must be held within 60 days to elect a new president." }, { "id": 35986, "title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end?", "url_title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end?", "slug": "will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:30:06.842179Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:51.573696Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.562356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:51.573694Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35417, "title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:30:06.842519Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:43.560376Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The **Russia-Ukraine war** began with **Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022** and remains an ongoing conflict. Despite Ukrainian counteroffensives and continued Western military aid, **frontlines have largely stabilized** with heavy fighting in **Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia**. President Trump has signaled intentions to expedite an end to the war. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **a clear and verifiable end to the Russia-Ukraine war** is established **before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET** through one or more of the following:\n\n#### **Primary Resolution Conditions (Any One of These Would Resolve \"Yes\")**\n\n1. **A Formal Peace Treaty or Ceasefire Agreement:**\n * A **legally binding agreement** is signed between the governments of **Russia and Ukraine** that officially **ends the war** or **establishes a permanent ceasefire.**\n * The agreement must be **publicly confirmed** by at least **two major independent sources**, such as:\n * **The United Nations (UN)**\n * **The U.S. State Department or another major government entity**\n * **The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)**\n * **Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or another major news agency**\n2. **An Unambiguous, Lasting End to Major Combat Operations:**\n * If **both** of the following are true for at least **one full month (30 days)** before May 15, 2025:\n * No **major military offensives** or significant fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces.\n * No **active territorial disputes or claims of war by either government.**\n * This must be **confirmed by multiple independent sources** (e.g., **BBC, Reuters, AP, NYT, The Guardian**).\n * A short-term lull or pause in fighting **does not** count—there must be **clear indications of a lasting cessation of hostilities.**\n3. **A Major Political Resolution Recognized by Both Governments:**\n * If **Ukraine and Russia both declare publicly that the war has ended** and **cease further military actions**, even without a formal treaty.\n * This declaration must be **officially stated** by **both** the **Russian** and **Ukrainian** governments **and acknowledged by at least two reputable sources.**\n\n### **Primary Sources for Resolution:**\n\n* **International & Governmental Sources**\n * [United Nations](https://www.un.org/)\n * [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)](https://www.osce.org/)\n * **Official statements from the governments of Ukraine & Russia**\n* **Major News Agencies**\n * [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/)\n * [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/)\n * [Associated Press (AP)](https://apnews.com/)\n * [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/)\n\nIf conflicting reports exist, a **majority consensus from primary sources** will determine resolution.", "fine_print": "* **Ongoing Negotiations:** If peace talks are in progress but have not resulted in a formal treaty, the question will **still resolve as \"No.\"**\n* **Frozen Conflict:** If large-scale fighting stops but both sides maintain hostile relations (e.g., similar to Korea's situation since 1953), the war will be considered **not officially ended**, and the question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* **Regime Change or Military Collapse:** If the war effectively ends due to **political upheaval, a Russian withdrawal, or Ukrainian surrender**, but no official agreement is signed, the question will **resolve based on the de facto situation as reported by major sources.**", "post_id": 35986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069106.91146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069106.91146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13045751169384087 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.032308049244041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3490738270927551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.12027583646645, "peer_score": 15.16642883906736, "coverage": 0.9787835119388721, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9787835119388721, "spot_peer_score": 7.084003743156466, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 70.12027583646645, "peer_archived_score": 15.16642883906736, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.084003743156466, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The **Russia-Ukraine war** began with **Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022** and remains an ongoing conflict. Despite Ukrainian counteroffensives and continued Western military aid, **frontlines have largely stabilized** with heavy fighting in **Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia**. President Trump has signaled intentions to expedite an end to the war. " }, { "id": 35983, "title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live (SNL) by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live?", "url_title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live?", "slug": "will-kieran-culkin-host-saturday-night-live", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:18:26.439304Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:03.324578Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.844495Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:03.324575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35414, "title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live (SNL) by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:18:26.439636Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:13:30.111399Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Kieran Culkin* is an Emmy-winning actor known for his role as **Roman Roy** in *Succession*. He previously hosted *SNL* on **November 6, 2021** and received positive reviews.\n\n**Factors that may influence his selection as host:**\n\n* **SNL’s Season 50 Milestone** – The show may bring back past popular hosts.\n* **Upcoming Film & TV Projects** – If Culkin has a major project in 2024-2025, he could be invited for promotional purposes.\n* **SNL’s Guest Rotation** – SNL tends to favor returning hosts and actors with recent cultural relevance.\n\nHistorically, SNL **announces hosts 1-4 weeks in advance**, so forecasters should monitor announcements and entertainment news sources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **Kieran Culkin** is officially listed as a host of *Saturday Night Live (SNL)* for any episode aired between now and **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**.\n\n* The primary resolution source will be the **official SNL host list** published on:\n 🔗 [NBC Insider: SNL Hosts](http://nbc.com/nbc-insider/everyone-hosting-snl-season-50)\n* The **episode must have aired before the resolution deadline.**\n* If Kieran Culkin appears on SNL in **any other capacity (e.g., cameo, guest appearance, musical performance, pre-taped sketch, or monologue guest)** but **not as the official host**, the question will **not** resolve \"Yes.\"\n* If there is a **canceled or unaired episode** where Culkin was scheduled to host, the question will **still resolve \"Yes\"** as long as NBC listed him as the host.\n* If no official confirmation is available by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069657.710332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069657.710332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2686071383045145 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1300722830890126, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.16121488199711, "peer_score": 7.161141679649201, "coverage": 0.9313400096363493, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9313400096363493, "spot_peer_score": 11.268348306185768, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.16121488199711, "peer_archived_score": 7.161141679649201, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.268348306185768, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Kieran Culkin* is an Emmy-winning actor known for his role as **Roman Roy** in *Succession*. He previously hosted *SNL* on **November 6, 2021** and received positive reviews.\n\n**Factors that may influence his selection as host:**\n\n* **SNL’s Season 50 Milestone** – The show may bring back past popular hosts.\n* **Upcoming Film & TV Projects** – If Culkin has a major project in 2024-2025, he could be invited for promotional purposes.\n* **SNL’s Guest Rotation** – SNL tends to favor returning hosts and actors with recent cultural relevance.\n\nHistorically, SNL **announces hosts 1-4 weeks in advance**, so forecasters should monitor announcements and entertainment news sources." }, { "id": 35982, "title": "Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up?", "url_title": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up?", "slug": "kylie-jenner-and-timothee-chalamet-will-break-up", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:16:42.945942Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:14:39.425255Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.705045Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:14:39.425252Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35413, "title": "Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:16:42.946601Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:09.394940Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have been romantically linked since **early 2023**, with public appearances and media coverage fueling speculation about their relationship status. \n\n**Factors that could influence a breakup before May 15, 2025:**\n\n* **Media & Public Scrutiny** – Constant attention may strain the relationship.\n* **Busy Careers & Schedules** – Both have demanding projects in 2025.\n* **Relationship History & Duration** – Short-lived high-profile relationships are common.\n* **Personal Life Events** – Family, social, or external pressures may play a role.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if, by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, a **clear and confirmed breakup** between Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet is publicly announced through one of the following:\n\n1. **An official public statement from Kylie Jenner or Timothée Chalamet** (via their verified social media, an interview, or press release), OR\n2. **An unequivocal breakup confirmation** from at least **two independent media outlets**, specifically:\n * 🔗 [TMZ](https://www.tmz.com/)\n * 🔗 [Variety](https://variety.com/)\n * 🔗 [Rolling Stone](https://www.rollingstone.com/)\n\n#### **Clarifications & Special Cases:**\n\n* If **TMZ, Variety, and Rolling Stone** all independently confirm the breakup, that will be sufficient for resolution.\n* If **only one** of these sources reports a breakup but other **credible media outlets (e.g., People, The Hollywood Reporter, E! News)** corroborate it, the question may still resolve \"Yes.\"\n* If reports emerge about a **potential breakup, rumors, or speculation** but there is no **definitive confirmation**, the question will **not** resolve as \"Yes.\"\n* If there are **conflicting reports**, the breakup will only be considered confirmed if a **majority of primary sources** agree on the status.\n* If no confirmed breakup is reported by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, this question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* If Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet are no longer publicly known to be dating at that time, but no breakup confirmation exists, the question will still resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069507.616108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069507.616108, "end_time": null, 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0.9411414190795686, "spot_peer_score": -6.668597053559466, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "baseline_archived_score": 72.97692653828136, "peer_archived_score": 5.5398355343092645, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.668597053559466, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have been romantically linked since **early 2023**, with public appearances and media coverage fueling speculation about their relationship status. \n\n**Factors that could influence a breakup before May 15, 2025:**\n\n* **Media & Public Scrutiny** – Constant attention may strain the relationship.\n* **Busy Careers & Schedules** – Both have demanding projects in 2025.\n* **Relationship History & Duration** – Short-lived high-profile relationships are common.\n* **Personal Life Events** – Family, social, or external pressures may play a role." }, { "id": 35975, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4?", "slug": "will-anthropic-release-claude-4", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955594Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959493Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.257268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959491Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35406, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955927Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:07:08.362686Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **\"Yes\"** if Anthropic publicly releases a model explicitly named **Claude 4** before **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**.\n\n* A **public release** is defined as Claude 4 being made available for commercial, enterprise, or general public use through Anthropic’s platform, an API, or any widely accessible service (e.g., via Anthropic’s website, Amazon Bedrock, or an official partner).\n* Any variation on **Claude 4** such as **Claude 4 - Sonnet, Claude 4 - Preview, or Claude 4.x** is sufficient to resolve **Yes.\"**\n* If Anthropic announces or previews Claude 4 but does not release it for public or commercial use before the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* If Anthropic releases an intermediate Claude model (e.g., \"Claude 3.5\" or \"Claude 3 Ultra\") but does not label it as **Claude 4**, this will not be sufficient for a **\"Yes\"** resolution.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding the official name or release status, authoritative sources such as **Anthropic’s blog, press releases, official documentation, or statements from executives** will be used for verification.\n\nIf no clear confirmation is available by the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069660.83968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069660.83968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.314519691099857 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7017282302155228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.630006126295486, "peer_score": 24.989564047806383, "coverage": 0.987991846755699, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.987991846755699, "spot_peer_score": 20.83580255855846, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 14.630006126295486, "peer_archived_score": 24.989564047806383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.83580255855846, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release." }, { "id": 35974, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention before 2029?", "short_title": "Will UK join PEM convention before 2029?", "url_title": "Will UK join PEM convention before 2029?", "slug": "will-uk-join-pem-convention-before-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.955649Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T11:06:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.454788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T11:09:17.246260Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:06:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35405, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.956036Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:06:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T11:06:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-02T11:06:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-join-the-PanEuroMediterranean-Convention)\n\n***\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM.\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial.\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the United Kingdom has officially joined the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM Convention). This will be considered fulfilled if the UK is listed as a contracting party in official EU or UK government documents, or if credible sources confirm that the UK has formally acceded to the convention through a signed agreement.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the UK has not joined the PEM Convention, before January 1, 2029. This includes scenarios where negotiations are ongoing but no formal accession has been completed, or if the UK explicitly rejects or withdraws from the process.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35974, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755372648.470123, "end_time": 1759177944.294212, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755372648.470123, "end_time": 1759177944.294212, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.4335707521561124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0425053667019508, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-join-the-PanEuroMediterranean-Convention)\n\n***\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM.\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial.\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift." }, { "id": 35973, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "short_title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia relation normalized by 2029?", "url_title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia relation normalized by 2029?", "slug": "israel-and-saudi-arabia-relation-normalized-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209007Z", "published_at": "2025-03-20T06:13:25.368092Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.734238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-20T06:13:25.368090Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-23T06:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35404, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209606Z", "open_time": "2025-03-23T06:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-27T06:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-27T06:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-and-Saudi-Arabia-normalize-relations-during-Donald-Trumps-second-presidency)\n\n***\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations.\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement.\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Israel and Saudi Arabia sign a diplomatic normalization agreement before January 20, 2029. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, diplomatic normalization requires the exchange of embassies and ambassadors. The question resolves upon the announcement of the signed agreement; it does not require the exchange to occur.", "post_id": 35973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756830273.055904, "end_time": 1759406139.665971, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756830273.055904, "end_time": 1759406139.665971, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.43315769892896816 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.24311673443421436, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42069258059606784, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14523836356616568, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-and-Saudi-Arabia-normalize-relations-during-Donald-Trumps-second-presidency)\n\n***\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations.\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement.\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. " }, { "id": 35971, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will trump pay judgement before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Will trump pay judgement before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "will-trump-pay-judgement-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242199Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T11:14:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.179673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T11:15:59.046898Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:14:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35402, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242841Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:14:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T11:14:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-02T11:14:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Donald-Trump-pay-his-settlement-to-E-Jean-Carroll)\n\n***\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/).\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, Donald Trump has paid the full amount of the settlement awarded to E. Jean Carroll by a court judgment. Payment will be considered made if credible sources confirm that Trump has either directly paid Carroll or that the funds have been collected through legal means, such as asset seizures or garnishments.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if Trump has not fully paid the settlement, before January 20, 2029. This includes scenarios where he has made partial payments but still owes a remaining balance, if the judgment is overturned or vacated on appeal, or if the settlement is otherwise rendered legally unenforceable.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756257358.850308, "end_time": 1759342098.593374, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756257358.850308, "end_time": 1759342098.593374, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.29306251126095634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 1.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Donald-Trump-pay-his-settlement-to-E-Jean-Carroll)\n\n***\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/).\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments." }, { "id": 35970, "title": "Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal before 21 January 2029?", "short_title": "US/Panama Canal take over by 2029", "url_title": "US/Panama Canal take over by 2029", "slug": "uspanama-canal-take-over-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:54.434269Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T06:00:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T16:36:01.589115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-23T06:00:29.100833Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-24T06:00:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:59:53.241838Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35401, "title": "Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal before 21 January 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:54.434677Z", "open_time": "2025-04-24T06:00:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-28T06:00:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-28T06:00:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal?\n\n[<u>The Panama Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal) is an artificial waterway which cuts across Panama, a country in Latin America, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean Sea. The canal drastically reduces the travel time required for shipping to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is an important maritime conduit. In this way, the Panama Canal is a New World equivalent to the [<u>Suez Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) in Egypt, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, with both canals sharing the same originator, Ferdinand de Lesseps.\n\nWhile de Lesseps and the French failed to successfully develop the waterway, the United States, under President Theodore Roosevelt, secured the rights to the future Panama Canal Zone by strategically supporting Panama's independence from Colombia and signing the [<u>Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Hay-Bunau-Varilla-Treaty) with the fledgling country in 1903. The agreement gave the United States governance rights over the canal as well as the assets and shares of the [*<u>Compagnie Nouvelle du Canal de Panama</u>*](https://pancanal.com/en/the-french-canal-construction/)\\*\\* - the French company established in 1894 to take over efforts to complete the canal. American construction began in 1904 and lasted ten years, with the canal [<u>formally opening on 15 August 1914</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-open-to-traffic). [<u>The immensity of the effort meant it was the largest engineering project the United States had undertaken to date</u>](https://pancanal.com/en/end-of-the-construction/#:~:text=Observing%20the%20transit%20from%20shore,States%20history%20to%20that%20time.).\n\nThe United States continued to exercise sole control over the Panama Canal Zone until 1977 when President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos negotiated the [<u>Torrijos–Carter Treaties</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/panama-canal). The settlement superseded the 1903 agreements and guaranteed that Panama would gain full control of the canal from 31 December 1999. In the meantime, [<u>joint US-Panama control was established</u>](https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/treasures_of_congress/text/page25_text.html#:~:text=The%20first%2C%20the%20Permanent%20Neutrality,Panama%20would%20take%20full%20control.) over the waterway. Despite tense relations between the two countries towards the end of the 1980s, when President George H. W. Bush authorized the [<u>invasion of Panama in 1989</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-invasion-of-Panama) to overthrow dictator Manuel Noriega, the canal was [<u>formally handed over on 31 December 1999</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-turned-over-to-panama).\n\nIn recent times, however, the consensus over the canal has been broken. Following his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the 1977 agreements with Panama and the country’s control over the canal. During his inaugural address in Washington DC, the President stated that the canal’s handover was a [<u>“foolish gift that should have never been made”, and claimed that China was influencing the canal’s operation</u>](https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-says-us-taking-back-panama-canal-but-panamas-president-has-defiant-message-13293275), contrary to the terms of the Torrijos–Carter Treaties. In addition, Trump has spoken of his intent to return the canal to US ownership, telling reporters on 2 February 2025 that, [<u>“we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen”</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/americas/panama-china-belt-and-road-initiative-rubio-visits-intl-latam/index.html) to Panama. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, at any time before January 21, 2029, Eastern Time, the United States is exercising **de facto control** over the territory of the Panama Canal.\n\nThe question will resolve as **\"No\"** if this does not occur before January 21, 2029, Eastern Time.", "fine_print": "Examples of what would be sufficient to resolve this question **\"Yes\"** include the following:\n\n1. **Formal Government Action with Actual Control** – The U.S. government, through legislation, executive order, or treaty, asserts control over the Panama Canal *and* this results in **observable operational or administrative control**, superseding the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties. Mere declarations without accompanying de facto control will not suffice.\n2. **Military Occupation or Seizure** – The U.S. military enters and **takes de facto control** of the canal, its operations, or surrounding territory, regardless of international recognition.\n3. **Negotiated Transfer** – Panama formally agrees to transfer control of the canal to the United States through a **signed and implemented agreement**, resulting in operational control by the U.S.\n4. **Third-Party Confirmation of Control** – Credible sources—such as official U.S. or Panamanian government statements or reputable media outlets (e.g., *The New York Times*, *BBC*, *Reuters*, *The Associated Press*)—confirm that the United States is **exercising operational, security, or governance control** of the canal.", "post_id": 35970, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757778631.562694, "end_time": 1757854490.827313, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757778631.562694, "end_time": 1757854490.827313, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11517160192098524 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.23140059053797998, 0.0, 1.6285892689711796, 1.5474066818262706, 1.1947272698432314, 0.8148122091076109, 0.1538804463707397, 0.31286391742790765, 0.17472138726266326, 0.7654150283970271, 1.7421635562650484, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09120785885294513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal?\n\n[<u>The Panama Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal) is an artificial waterway which cuts across Panama, a country in Latin America, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean Sea. The canal drastically reduces the travel time required for shipping to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is an important maritime conduit. In this way, the Panama Canal is a New World equivalent to the [<u>Suez Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) in Egypt, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, with both canals sharing the same originator, Ferdinand de Lesseps.\n\nWhile de Lesseps and the French failed to successfully develop the waterway, the United States, under President Theodore Roosevelt, secured the rights to the future Panama Canal Zone by strategically supporting Panama's independence from Colombia and signing the [<u>Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Hay-Bunau-Varilla-Treaty) with the fledgling country in 1903. The agreement gave the United States governance rights over the canal as well as the assets and shares of the [*<u>Compagnie Nouvelle du Canal de Panama</u>*](https://pancanal.com/en/the-french-canal-construction/)\\*\\* - the French company established in 1894 to take over efforts to complete the canal. American construction began in 1904 and lasted ten years, with the canal [<u>formally opening on 15 August 1914</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-open-to-traffic). [<u>The immensity of the effort meant it was the largest engineering project the United States had undertaken to date</u>](https://pancanal.com/en/end-of-the-construction/#:~:text=Observing%20the%20transit%20from%20shore,States%20history%20to%20that%20time.).\n\nThe United States continued to exercise sole control over the Panama Canal Zone until 1977 when President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos negotiated the [<u>Torrijos–Carter Treaties</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/panama-canal). The settlement superseded the 1903 agreements and guaranteed that Panama would gain full control of the canal from 31 December 1999. In the meantime, [<u>joint US-Panama control was established</u>](https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/treasures_of_congress/text/page25_text.html#:~:text=The%20first%2C%20the%20Permanent%20Neutrality,Panama%20would%20take%20full%20control.) over the waterway. Despite tense relations between the two countries towards the end of the 1980s, when President George H. W. Bush authorized the [<u>invasion of Panama in 1989</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-invasion-of-Panama) to overthrow dictator Manuel Noriega, the canal was [<u>formally handed over on 31 December 1999</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-turned-over-to-panama).\n\nIn recent times, however, the consensus over the canal has been broken. Following his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the 1977 agreements with Panama and the country’s control over the canal. During his inaugural address in Washington DC, the President stated that the canal’s handover was a [<u>“foolish gift that should have never been made”, and claimed that China was influencing the canal’s operation</u>](https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-says-us-taking-back-panama-canal-but-panamas-president-has-defiant-message-13293275), contrary to the terms of the Torrijos–Carter Treaties. In addition, Trump has spoken of his intent to return the canal to US ownership, telling reporters on 2 February 2025 that, [<u>“we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen”</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/americas/panama-china-belt-and-road-initiative-rubio-visits-intl-latam/index.html) to Panama. " }, { "id": 35968, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-lift-the-blockade-to-humanitarian-aid-into-gaza-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.465699Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.612472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:27:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35399, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.465699Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:31:46.919181Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, humanitarian aid into Gaza has resumed, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741885023.424075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25933333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741885023.424075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25933333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7406666666666666, 0.25933333333333336 ], "means": [ 0.27832196013399496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5491015451479079, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 2.551420811364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4184777174721699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1044506322415404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02456981989063922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.34358430493627, "peer_score": 16.04437412258718, "coverage": 0.9884620466497209, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9884620466497209, "spot_peer_score": 14.89901254925972, "spot_baseline_score": 56.68963160058486, "baseline_archived_score": 37.34358430493627, "peer_archived_score": 16.04437412258718, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.89901254925972, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.68963160058486 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict." }, { "id": 35966, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pepfar-funding-be-resumed-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.387102Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.416092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:27:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35397, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.387102Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:29:38.649412Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that funding for the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is frozen ([NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html), [JIAS](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11851316/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/05/congress/graham-warns-trumps-budget-pick-about-going-too-far-with-funding-freeze-00213662)) at the time of this question, has resumed. If a partial resumption takes place, this question will resolve as **Yes** PEPFAR's funding levels are at least 50% of pre-pause funding.", "fine_print": "An announcement that funding *will* resume will only resolve this question if the date of the resumption is before April 7, 2025 and no credible sources as of that date suggest that funding remains paused. ", "post_id": 35966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741798225.019048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.429 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741798225.019048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.429 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31892846149203274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2950606299171325, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9780509491898337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.094123794532491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 2.537784838941846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29823886049968595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.27722963607777, "peer_score": -0.8547139589987824, "coverage": 0.9522731930679745, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9522731930679745, "spot_peer_score": -1.6656380628801712, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 51.27722963607777, "peer_archived_score": -0.8547139589987824, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6656380628801712, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed." }, { "id": 35953, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet mark the objective of eliminating the Low-Income Heat and Energy Assistance Program as complete on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-spreadsheet-mark-the-objective-of-eliminating-the-low-income-heat-and-energy-assistance-program-as-complete-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T05:18:23.675210Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.431365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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Compared to December traffic to chatgpt.com has decreased by -2.41%.\"" }, { "id": 35947, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-impose-any-new-tariffs-on-india-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T05:16:05.977657Z", "published_at": "2025-03-11T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.616657Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35381, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T05:16:05.977657Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T11:19:05.969695Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US government officially announces the implementation of any new tariff on imports from India after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as No.", "fine_print": "Please note that a mere intention to impose a tariff will not count. If a tariff is announced but does not go into effect, [such as happened](https://www.globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com/trump-2-0-u-s-tariffs-on-china-take-effect-mexico-and-canada-granted-30-day-pause/) with Mexico and Canada, it will not count. Tariff must specifically target India in order to count, so a global tariff on a particular good would not count unless India is specifically targeted.", "post_id": 35947, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741829580.807873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741829580.807873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.046405714894603496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 1.8502051036716036, 0.11506274851461015, 1.722171411158783, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.884479309065114, "peer_score": 1.2571713436568153, "coverage": 0.7066876954137603, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7066876954137603, "spot_peer_score": -0.172035045534039, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 63.884479309065114, "peer_archived_score": 1.2571713436568153, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.172035045534039, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)" }, { "id": 35946, "title": "Will the US Citizenship and Immigration Services' EB-5 page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "EB-5 page still online?", "url_title": "EB-5 page still online?", "slug": "eb-5-page-still-online", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T05:16:05.958023Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.489652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35380, "title": "Will the US Citizenship and Immigration Services' EB-5 page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T05:16:05.958023Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T02:01:01.592035Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Trump to Axe EB-5 Program and Introduce $5m \"Gold Card\"](https://www.imidaily.com/north-america/trump-to-axe-eb-5-program-and-introduce-5m-gold-card/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the USCIS EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program information portal is at [this location](https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/permanent-workers/eb-5-immigrant-investor-program) when attempted to be accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. ", "fine_print": "If the URL has changed, it will still count as long as the specific location listed above redirects to the new location. If there are issues accessing the page unambiguously related to uscis.gov itself being temporarily offline (for example 404 due to maintenance), then resolution will wait until uscis.gov is back online, and then it will be determined whether the specific location listed in the resolution criteria still contains the USCIS EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program information portal.", "post_id": 35946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741806670.69613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741806670.69613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.938167233187572 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trump to Axe EB-5 Program and Introduce $5m \"Gold Card\"](https://www.imidaily.com/north-america/trump-to-axe-eb-5-program-and-introduce-5m-gold-card/)" }, { "id": 35937, "title": "Will the Boston Celtics have the highest winning percentage in the NBA on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-boston-celtics-have-the-highest-winning-percentage-in-the-nba-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:13.356215Z", "published_at": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.596838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": 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