Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=860
{ "count": 6295, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=840", "results": [ { "id": 38088, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-median-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-be-from-the-united-states-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.107902Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.195692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T11:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37394, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.107902Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T11:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T11:10:06.604828Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 30, 2025, the 250th-ranked name on the list was Giancarlo Devasini of Italy", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed as being from the United States, when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after July 1, 2025. It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other country.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the \"median\" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, no matter how many are on the list.", "post_id": 38088, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748511022.482192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748511022.482192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4143542070802184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10489672558046856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010708106030093893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4489003426494056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.8192436212281577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.593243137153898, 0.19649489933421513, 0.7150025343476979, 0.0, 0.0, 1.796569363218141, 0.8007238388551874, 0.8469093040178143, 0.02643125667787829, 0.07784815699000376, 2.020624253134856, 0.0, 0.4120773419826599, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7412210808225714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1243673863929575, 0.4752884891142051, 1.0046908128724672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4254459872301988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11388109619646443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6421735118693229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2555168591127752, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020120281448352023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17170723907335256 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.853017852555322, "peer_score": 11.279575099332234, "coverage": 0.9867878941694894, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9867878941694894, "spot_peer_score": 9.206732357923062, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 26.853017852555322, "peer_archived_score": 11.279575099332234, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.206732357923062, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 30, 2025, the 250th-ranked name on the list was Giancarlo Devasini of Italy" }, { "id": 38087, "title": "Will Amani Golugwa be released from custody before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-amani-golugwa-be-released-from-custody-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.102966Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.819227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-23T15:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37393, "title": "Will Amani Golugwa be released from custody before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.102966Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-23T15:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-23T15:41:22.656703Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "DW: [Tanzania opposition leader arrested at airport](https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-opposition-leader-arrested-at-airport/a-72532176) | Tanzania Digest: [The Arraignment of The CHADEMA Deputy Secretary General, Amani Golugwa, At JKNIA Aimed to Cut Off CHADEMA International Links](https://www.digest.tz/the-arraignment-of-the-chadema-deputy-secretary-general-amani-golugwa-at-jknia-aimed-to-cut-off-chadema-international-links/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, Amani Golugwa, the Deputy Secretary General of Tanzania’s Chadema Party, has been released from Tanzanian custody according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38087, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748503822.289313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2854040563106537 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748503822.289313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2854040563106537 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7145959436893463, 0.2854040563106537 ], "means": [ 0.3629859639916537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16256421897928386, 0.08569614324107964, 0.6769302749943321, 0.8018133090773757, 0.0, 0.0, 2.745879696707245, 0.4499804576654302, 0.0, 0.007280827884852904, 0.0, 1.7858331981845004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1321625121000937, 0.0, 1.2793429116786719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8960435594115131, 0.0, 1.3046128599504148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2708401672444837, 0.0, 0.7963247129131849, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4505485099640771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6035675272062923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4116014879374696, 0.10678389500756706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8477653512508476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15182275855838157, 0.0, 0.37241544999207604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009159026026701877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41586716425225057, 0.0, 1.0695518440799037, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "DW: [Tanzania opposition leader arrested at airport](https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-opposition-leader-arrested-at-airport/a-72532176) | Tanzania Digest: [The Arraignment of The CHADEMA Deputy Secretary General, Amani Golugwa, At JKNIA Aimed to Cut Off CHADEMA International Links](https://www.digest.tz/the-arraignment-of-the-chadema-deputy-secretary-general-amani-golugwa-at-jknia-aimed-to-cut-off-chadema-international-links/)" }, { "id": 38085, "title": "Will Florida have 14.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-florida-have-140-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-june-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.940518Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.969044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37391, "title": "Will Florida have 14.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.940518Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-28T20:45:15.388672Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "USA Today: [14 million Florida residents are under drought conditions, some extreme: What to know](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/04/28/florida-drought-conditions-what-to-know/83328368007/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida) lists greater than or equal to 14.0 million Florida residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after June 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up until the end of the tournament's scoring at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748490251.422026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748490251.422026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.6499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3500000000000001, 0.6499999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.5747998579325103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6769302749943321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47759049593500436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29290778199668294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43668827763228835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12528447983160879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.4572015407622274, 0.0, 0.4696352335009454, 0.31187544366267334, 0.0, 0.10678389500756706, 0.0, 0.8018133090773757, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.001770091099343005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581324210287726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467522735592828, 0.0, 0.5623512750463563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6393178676484588, 0.0, 1.708245255589968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3319092663269885, 0.6035675272062923, 1.347621385414247, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3777737388703204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3292474966881955, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.5740087409935761, 0.0, 0.585844649010932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09456716880017074, 0.0, 0.5066828489144001, 0.03881022225732753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -40.920159429839224, "peer_score": 7.972415135473542, "coverage": 0.9814389363924665, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9814389363924665, "spot_peer_score": 1.4202899306549768, "spot_baseline_score": -51.4573172829758, "baseline_archived_score": -40.920159429839224, "peer_archived_score": 7.972415135473542, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4202899306549768, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.4573172829758 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "USA Today: [14 million Florida residents are under drought conditions, some extreme: What to know](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/04/28/florida-drought-conditions-what-to-know/83328368007/)" }, { "id": 38084, "title": "Will California have 20.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-california-have-200-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-june-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.934325Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.150871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37390, "title": "Will California have 20.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.934325Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-28T20:16:38.626833Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SF Gate: [California's drought has returned — and it's already bad](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-drought-problem-20271547.php)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/california) lists greater than or equal to 20.0 million California residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after June 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up until the end of the tournament's scoring at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748483848.006347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748483848.006347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.61044821232881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.791415242919365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.09348984889254526, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0239476085792505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2620963169016111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02492106137671398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3816708653012367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 0.0, 0.7739888907555579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5371239598136404, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0280947557625733, 0.0, 0.5732942359802634, 0.7087937680403422, 0.0, 0.6989662188425434, 0.20027086012739792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41241764889602844, 0.4037025803528186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.051194937221626276, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0791187255183669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.38656570656217, "peer_score": 12.339884596724863, "coverage": 0.9804976162645551, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9804976162645551, "spot_peer_score": 14.702888222730891, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.38656570656217, "peer_archived_score": 12.339884596724863, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.702888222730891, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SF Gate: [California's drought has returned — and it's already bad](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-drought-problem-20271547.php)" }, { "id": 38080, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-harvard-university-have-a-student-and-exchange-visitor-program-certification-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.649974Z", "published_at": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.416455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37386, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.649974Z", "open_time": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T00:27:19.318398Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\r\n\r\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on July 1, 2025, Harvard University has a certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) programme allowing international students to enroll, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* An announcement that Harvard's certification will be restored on a date after July 1, 2025 will not suffice to resolve this question. The certification needs to be in effect for this to resolve.\r\n* Getting the certification at any point on July 1, 2025 would resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 38080, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748449353.542583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748449353.542583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.5202115557188646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076261882502705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8460382388409197, 0.5713450688736563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45647441405538336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0838974838780717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028211751262907668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1401743975060779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5654667606195058, 0.5618343227108057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5092207873276423, 0.0, 0.4452257211395179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1941378799360505, 0.0, 0.24848421122960956, 0.0, 0.7134897192591153, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0, 1.2703760526147476, 0.0, 0.9868053957634323, 0.12804351164029554, 0.0, 1.6291524589989779, 0.0, 0.6549141768598791, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5227980548888946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37297404405291623, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 0.055522266795466554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11917266062120754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.465370126799904, "peer_score": 32.52126271027823, "coverage": 0.9846781048509812, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9846781048509812, "spot_peer_score": 29.875397166460022, "spot_baseline_score": 32.19280948873624, "baseline_archived_score": 34.465370126799904, "peer_archived_score": 32.52126271027823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.875397166460022, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.19280948873624 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\r\n\r\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party." }, { "id": 38071, "title": "Will Aaron Rouse win the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-aaron-rouse-win-the-democratic-primary-for-lieutenant-governor-of-virginia-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.152889Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.218832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37377, "title": "Will Aaron Rouse win the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.152889Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T22:46:34.317737Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Virginia lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2025 (June 17 Democratic primary)](https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2025_(June_17_Democratic_primary))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Aaron Rouse wins the 2025 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Democratic primary election is currently scheduled for June 17, 2025. If there is no Democratic primary held before June 30, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748382015.859764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.314 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748382015.859764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.314 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6859999999999999, 0.314 ], "means": [ 0.37820612705478984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25433381763164653, 0.6393178676484588, 0.0, 0.39894163991141135, 0.8018133090773757, 0.07470781572406866, 0.31187544366267334, 0.10678389500756706, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8075457408445286, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6630671860723214, 0.0, 1.6047455049210755, 0.9055128602369584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.405201342470036, 0.12318307962189343, 0.0, 0.6035675272062923, 0.0, 0.8176061381753817, 0.0, 0.042207751502632146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5066828489144001, 0.0, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3911691860472189, 0.3319092663269885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2933381207644064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1321625121000937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2579726483042557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049750369566005516, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0217213482053513, 0.0, 0.027395211953472116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16256421897928386, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 40.60433531726851, "peer_score": 11.534246206108717, "coverage": 0.9864962493048772, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864962493048772, "spot_peer_score": 14.768225602149109, "spot_baseline_score": 45.62804815107251, "baseline_archived_score": 40.60433531726851, "peer_archived_score": 11.534246206108717, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.768225602149109, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.62804815107251 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Virginia lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2025 (June 17 Democratic primary)](https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2025_(June_17_Democratic_primary))" }, { "id": 38070, "title": "Will Pat Herrity win the Republican primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pat-herrity-win-the-republican-primary-for-lieutenant-governor-of-virginia-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.148410Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.997166Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T10:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37376, "title": "Will Pat Herrity win the Republican primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.148410Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T10:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T10:08:10.640695Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two major races happening in Virginia this year](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-dont-sleep-on-these-39f)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Pat Herrity wins the 2025 Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Republican primary election is currently scheduled for June 17, 2025. If there is no Republican primary held before June 30, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748374567.293497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748374567.293497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.985, 0.015 ], "means": [ 0.06848596475338196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.684651710629156, 1.5445913252716676, 0.673913162358795, 0.5780890010866883, 0.1845367509026616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8880909599161323, 0.615523979804894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7873596684122405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.509647348097866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5419649574957528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09818838287618935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3671566801324653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011671031195180676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two major races happening in Virginia this year](https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-dont-sleep-on-these-39f)" }, { "id": 38069, "title": "Will Jason Miyares win the Republican primary for attorney general of Virginia in the 2025 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jason-miyares-win-the-republican-primary-for-attorney-general-of-virginia-in-the-2025-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.143942Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.365120Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37375, "title": "Will Jason Miyares win the Republican primary for attorney general of Virginia in the 2025 election?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.143942Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T10:03:00.708469Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Virginia's attorney general race draws big money, sharp contrasts](https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/article_f30404b0-d922-4f4e-bdc6-8a3ec2f53e47.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Jason Miyares wins the 2025 Republican primary for Attorney General of Virginia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Republican primary election is currently scheduled for June 17, 2025. If there is no Republican primary held before June 30, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748367595.919654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.718 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9768180847167969 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748367595.919654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.718 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9768180847167969 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.7780635893899156 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07370291962268603, 0.4499804576654302, 0.0, 0.537327422693546, 0.07978462331566336, 0.35306151093949006, 0.9085972040849427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03881022225732753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17395599695450367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31187544366267334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331210503002213, 0.5066828489144001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08569614324107964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37538668734720954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024232937600138903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9500947283496497, 0.15182275855838157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7164903331404135, 3.8051617017359063, 0.30076455661719054, 2.04433108533701, 1.221829412130637, 2.5342794914780296 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Virginia's attorney general race draws big money, sharp contrasts](https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/article_f30404b0-d922-4f4e-bdc6-8a3ec2f53e47.html)" }, { "id": 38068, "title": "Will Jerrauld Jones win the Democratic primary for attorney general of Virginia in the 2025 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jerrauld-jones-win-the-democratic-primary-for-attorney-general-of-virginia-in-the-2025-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.139362Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.292706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-27T23:18:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37374, "title": "Will Jerrauld Jones win the Democratic primary for attorney general of Virginia in the 2025 election?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.139362Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-27T23:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-27T23:37:07.738995Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post: [Former Del. Jay Jones (D) of Norfolk ramps up bid for Virginia AG](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/11/12/virginia-jones-miyares-ag-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Jerrauld Jones wins the 2025 Democratic primary for Attorney General of Virginia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Democratic primary election is currently scheduled for June 17, 2025. If there is no Democratic primary held before June 30, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38068, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748360604.246817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748360604.246817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5337963037063369 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08124393637152379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1021057282847084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338162109370695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8451517062867188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.304297230269704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47058026059072494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09378499354577581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.353690094440158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.10886246125459637, 1.4155180117795574, 0.0, 0.22001166426243932, 0.0, 0.05868412703184981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30433718231962875, 0.0, 0.19483545222001475, 0.0, 0.5307842046168789, 1.4650986218221962, 0.0, 0.3915107710373727, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8383793575426837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24172293418828722, 0.0, 0.6573450556840456, 0.0, 0.2853515621283832, 0.2674415470750466, 0.0, 1.5306665151576384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6718805327177122, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8942180920825968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Washington Post: [Former Del. Jay Jones (D) of Norfolk ramps up bid for Virginia AG](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/11/12/virginia-jones-miyares-ag-election/)" }, { "id": 38067, "title": "Will a woman win the 2025 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-woman-win-the-2025-james-beard-award-for-outstanding-chef", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.134413Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.590476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37373, "title": "Will a woman win the 2025 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.134413Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T00:38:43.784129Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Here Are the 2025 James Beard Awards Restaurant, Chef, and Media Award Finalists](https://www.eater.com/24398769/2025-james-beard-awards-restaurant-chef-finalists)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a woman wins the 2025 James Beard Award for Outstanding Chef.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38067, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748353717.613316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748353717.613316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44375133747091833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17395599695450367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022822997644283576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011703070251958362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.423785636031633, 0.23791564355161335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8287530335527137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.299480326423948, 0.29290778199668294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.122081623037166, 0.35306151093949006, 1.0676366178246397, 0.8158015465726464, 0.5057255349189784, 1.2980048908777508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.0, 0.40560895156563753, 0.8960435594115131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5167704619427098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9570675657636221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8477653512508476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.242575523815994, "peer_score": 1.5989318733778974, "coverage": 0.9863943799999024, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9863943799999024, "spot_peer_score": 1.2080682426295317, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "baseline_archived_score": 22.242575523815994, "peer_archived_score": 1.5989318733778974, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2080682426295317, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Here Are the 2025 James Beard Awards Restaurant, Chef, and Media Award Finalists](https://www.eater.com/24398769/2025-james-beard-awards-restaurant-chef-finalists)" }, { "id": 38066, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sam-altman-and-elon-musk-be-on-the-stage-together-at-yc-ai-startup-school", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.993838Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T08:16:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.639061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T22:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T08:16:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37372, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Elon Musk be on the stage together at YC AI Startup School?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.993838Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T08:16:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T22:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:00:05.268423Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T10:16:57Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Y Combinator is an American venture capital firm known for launching over 5,000 companies including Airbnb, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2025, Y Combinator announced AI Startup School, a conference in San Francisco held on June 16–17, aimed at 2,000 final-year students and recent graduates in computer science, artificial intelligence, and related fields. \n\nY Combinator has announced that both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are among the headline speakers at the AI Startup School, but it is unknown whether they will appear on stage together at the same time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Sam Altman and Elon Musk share a stage together at YC AI Startup School after 7:59 AM, June 16, 2025, and before 00:00 AM, June 18, 2025. Otherwise, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "Sharing a stage is defined as both individuals being physically present on the same platform at the same time. \n\nThis question will resolve according to a preponderance of evidence. If there is no clear evidence of this occurring before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as No.\n\nAll times for this question are in Pacific Daylight Time (PDT).  ", "post_id": 38066, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748340975.261095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3098599910736084 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748340975.261095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3098599910736084 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25285506852310513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9470597750252968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7179538125144866, 0.0, 0.5394424405969069, 0.009236169224775433, 0.8439836790335957, 1.1232933359077444, 0.004178148511023217, 0.0, 1.6783030178706848, 0.3163280667063002, 1.0878094733918195, 0.0, 0.6410934339439445, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1030375248659476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009270746381897505, 0.6054722359048019, 2.822693996051979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9686628292272697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42411270399053796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6785591737117599, 0.0, 0.858293828607726, 0.0, 0.5716145265285659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.35251220071485, "peer_score": 4.371596945428912, "coverage": 0.9936348263753784, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9936348263753784, "spot_peer_score": 1.4275153603378652, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 62.35251220071485, "peer_archived_score": 4.371596945428912, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4275153603378652, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Y Combinator is an American venture capital firm known for launching over 5,000 companies including Airbnb, Stripe, and Reddit. In 2025, Y Combinator announced AI Startup School, a conference in San Francisco held on June 16–17, aimed at 2,000 final-year students and recent graduates in computer science, artificial intelligence, and related fields. \n\nY Combinator has announced that both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are among the headline speakers at the AI Startup School, but it is unknown whether they will appear on stage together at the same time." }, { "id": 38065, "title": "Will Amani Golugwa be released from custody before June 15, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-amani-golugwa-be-released-from-custody-before-june-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.985134Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.019181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T10:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37371, "title": "Will Amani Golugwa be released from custody before June 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.985134Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T10:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-27T10:52:14.624858Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "IPPMedia: [Things worsen for troubled CHADEMA](https://www.ippmedia.com/the-guardian/news/local-news/read/things-worsen-for-troubled-chadema-2025-05-14-080226)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 16, 2025, Amani Golugwa, the Deputy Secretary General of Tanzania’s Chadema Party, has been released from Tanzanian custody according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Golugwa [was arrested](https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-opposition-leader-arrested-at-airport/a-72532176) by Tanzanian police at Julius Nyerere International Airport in Dar es Salaam on May 13, 2025. As there is no public reporting that he has been released, at the time of this question he would be considered to be in Tanzanian custody.", "post_id": 38065, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748331852.222603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.212 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748331852.222603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.212 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.788, 0.212 ], "means": [ 0.26204902028843047 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7164903331404135, 0.0, 0.8477653512508476, 0.15182275855838157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9784545774298596, 0.37538668734720954, 0.0, 1.0204551931819688, 0.0, 1.7692596991150993, 1.0, 0.35306151093949006, 0.0, 0.6393178676484588, 1.957001074854566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47759049593500436, 0.760835275406879, 0.28868856088422357, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19686417823429603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.10632896780167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.75867846606284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29290778199668294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8018133090773757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1441708305013528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877508264275162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "IPPMedia: [Things worsen for troubled CHADEMA](https://www.ippmedia.com/the-guardian/news/local-news/read/things-worsen-for-troubled-chadema-2025-05-14-080226)" }, { "id": 38064, "title": "Will the Gamestop annual meeting take place on June 12, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-gamestop-annual-meeting-take-place-on-june-12-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.980435Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.730847Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-15T01:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37370, "title": "Will the Gamestop annual meeting take place on June 12, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.980435Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-15T01:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-15T01:34:17.872689Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNBC (2024): [Servers for GameStop annual shareholder meeting crash due to overwhelming interest](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/gamestop-annual-shareholder-meeting-2024-servers-crash.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Gamestop's 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders is held on June 12, 2025.", "fine_print": "The meeting is considered to have been held when it fully completed. For example, if the meeting begins but is then postponed due to server issues, the question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 38064, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748324539.287799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8442857142857143 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748324539.287799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8442857142857143 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6369242367720939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017892171027319322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7593651321071082, 0.0, 1.0117074098405054, 0.0, 0.10113073158219138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009687016818592156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10145360001740764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05139646203995118, 0.0, 0.11666173967363361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2528858697836027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15720504920330267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08115937013843251, 0.0, 0.4110760995675665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051070591364816675, 0.7179538125144866, 0.0, 0.24639022476096736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21817026358647473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7916245957829902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2127079604725104, 0.0, 0.6785591737117599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8716336203280621, 0.0, 0.0023407900061487357, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1118000068915883, 0.16474672734003346, 0.0, 0.5747378592059299, 0.0, 0.05324867514654667, 0.535444961582735, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.1251657989762928, 0.3555136316665397, 2.8675649992723127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.21472466286173805, 0.0, 0.22910433567711114, 0.8486068117891338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.33185367213971, "peer_score": 22.92224032827253, "coverage": 0.9754837365282905, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9754837365282905, "spot_peer_score": 26.65566754877939, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.33185367213971, "peer_archived_score": 22.92224032827253, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.65566754877939, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC (2024): [Servers for GameStop annual shareholder meeting crash due to overwhelming interest](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/gamestop-annual-shareholder-meeting-2024-servers-crash.html)" }, { "id": 38058, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-word-tariff-disappear-from-the-front-pages-of-the-new-york-times-and-wall-street-journal-before-july-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.613547Z", "published_at": "2025-05-26T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.957621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37364, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.613547Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T09:44:41.852726Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\r\n\r\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on any single day after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, the words \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\" appear on neither the digital version of the front page of The New York Times nor the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question:\r\n\r\n* The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper)\r\n* Wall Street Journal: [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n<sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for May 15, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup>", "fine_print": "* Grammar or spelling will not prevent a **No** resolution.\r\n* \"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\r\n* \"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, including \"Pages A2-A3 and Corrections\", \"What's News: Business & Finance\" not just the initial section at the top. The only sections that do not qualify are those that do not change between different front pages such as the \"Most Popular News\" or \"Recommended Videos\" sections on WSJ.", "post_id": 38058, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748278029.366445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5166666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748278029.366445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5166666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3231096945347672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8028844628298696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00867414512829912, 0.0, 0.2953646875110861, 0.0, 0.0, 1.138831508454369, 0.11666173967363361, 0.4013503291190707, 0.0, 0.0, 2.448658018298915, 0.0, 0.5394424405969069, 0.6785591737117599, 0.3778215797427243, 1.2508574975501767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6162188178768027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7122717803680271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8486068117891338, 0.0, 0.18903379691960978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6054722359048019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01623598922425778, 0.20113652926608147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000560044871523829, 0.722252804082377, 0.1251657989762928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4798589449020482, 0.5088811880510724, 0.0, 0.09405365545061962, 0.0, 1.8232221361731797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01218656365778045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5716145265285659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35785442167268844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -95.71403177680342, "peer_score": 12.47540425064847, "coverage": 0.9866883237494363, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866883237494363, "spot_peer_score": 9.260038782128172, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -95.71403177680342, "peer_archived_score": 12.47540425064847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.260038782128172, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\r\n\r\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 38057, "title": "Will Merab Dvalishvili defeat Sean O'Malley at UFC 316?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-merab-dvalishvili-defeat-sean-omalley-at-ufc-316", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.604584Z", "published_at": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.653359Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37363, "title": "Will Merab Dvalishvili defeat Sean O'Malley at UFC 316?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.604584Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-08T09:17:22.388712Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ESPN: [UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2](https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600053672/league/ufc)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Merab Dvalishvili defeats Sean O'Malley at [UFC 316](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_316).", "fine_print": "If Dvalishvili does not fight anyone at UFC 316 or fights someone else, this resolves as No.", "post_id": 38057, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748267141.621248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748267141.621248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6499583313203005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.872824441177844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6852986962843948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.5822995422922214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.7567875495527383, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14590872821832962, 0.02643125667787829, 0.09932266389367198, 0.0, 1.2368597135648731, 0.19698933248100042, 0.0, 0.004659830558370482, 1.1691806710430588, 0.0, 0.4646155297121457, 0.028935987500173357, 0.5670264646065224, 0.7995637480929738, 0.6608585312970794, 0.4731995761522439, 0.32941610215541206, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.16036165193204036, 0.0, 4.7103874661506895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12118541157380776, 0.7150025343476979, 0.008631263422164425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.090515909635905, 0.0, 0.012034017844787867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.675274710717055 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.86208957915415, "peer_score": 2.5485146704861443, "coverage": 0.9860407762395014, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9860407762395014, "spot_peer_score": 3.207886695939713, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756148, "baseline_archived_score": 43.86208957915415, "peer_archived_score": 2.5485146704861443, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.207886695939713, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756148 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ESPN: [UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2](https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600053672/league/ufc)" }, { "id": 38056, "title": "Will Johnny Walker defeat Azamat Murzakanov at UFC 316?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-johnny-walker-defeat-azamat-murzakanov-at-ufc-316", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.322865Z", "published_at": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.177462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37362, "title": "Will Johnny Walker defeat Azamat Murzakanov at UFC 316?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.322865Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-08T09:17:01.494692Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please see [UFC Stats](http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/dab807a99d295832) for statistical details of the two opponents.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Johnny Walker defeats Azamat Murzakanov at [UFC 316](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_316).", "fine_print": "If Walker does not fight anyone at UFC 316 or fights someone else, this resolves as No.", "post_id": 38056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748260394.329826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748260394.329826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10384591436975167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5612035277678419, 5.412381132522699, 0.9635312125199975, 0.8515985940650278, 0.0, 3.508509220606858, 0.0, 0.5956380251215266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5285340505500855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7527531912644363, 0.36228327370875985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0919202996362008, 0.037350175802999215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5066695702901725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.9454658663642979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.893587478567622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004817883651207132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15363062476929543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11510138539572264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.28286076361033, "peer_score": 8.961533434245528, "coverage": 0.9825607815384861, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9825607815384861, "spot_peer_score": 7.8833563341666375, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 93.28286076361033, "peer_archived_score": 8.961533434245528, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.8833563341666375, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Please see [UFC Stats](http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/dab807a99d295832) for statistical details of the two opponents." }, { "id": 38055, "title": "Will Joe Pyfer defeat someone at UFC 316?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-pyfer-defeat-someone-at-ufc-316", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.318483Z", "published_at": "2025-05-26T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.245457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37361, "title": "Will Joe Pyfer defeat someone at UFC 316?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.318483Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T09:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-08T09:06:59.991179Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sports Illustrated: [UFC 316 adds rebooked fight after last-minute Mexico cancellation](https://www.si.com/fannation/mma/news/ufc-316-rebooked-fight-kelvin-gastelum-joe-pyfer-mexico-cancellation)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Pyfer defeats someone at [UFC 316](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_316).", "fine_print": "If Pyfer does not fight anyone at UFC 316, this resolves as No.", "post_id": 38055, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748252855.265746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748252855.265746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6619120573652465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04445312502789519, 0.24797248793215781, 0.0, 0.08074439804928829, 0.0, 0.5349132382228524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11764135143643692, 0.893587478567622, 0.0, 0.034166571748472256, 0.0, 0.1970528744598881, 0.0, 0.21567794800873116, 0.06725432760272325, 0.834969845491843, 1.3459160726198665, 0.08513379411538498, 0.23574918568449332, 0.0, 0.4676203145309537, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47287319264755995, 0.0, 0.11510138539572264, 0.0, 1.0175045851389142, 2.9027700469038114, 0.43532931700909266, 1.805233376822502, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0, 2.0226889478825285, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375, 0.001839023418757394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7973400546120943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31729452284718707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.70624433325644, "peer_score": 6.669961516401497, "coverage": 0.9723496759600111, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9723496759600111, "spot_peer_score": 14.01094959494184, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 34.70624433325644, "peer_archived_score": 6.669961516401497, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.01094959494184, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sports Illustrated: [UFC 316 adds rebooked fight after last-minute Mexico cancellation](https://www.si.com/fannation/mma/news/ufc-316-rebooked-fight-kelvin-gastelum-joe-pyfer-mexico-cancellation)" }, { "id": 37920, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Harvard's SEVP certification be restored by July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Harvard's SEVP certification be restored by July 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-harvards-sevp-certification-be-restored-by-july-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-22T23:38:30.675195Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.934051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T00:01:42.879155Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-30T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-30T14:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37229, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-22T23:38:30.675590Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-30T14:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-30T14:22:07.940157Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-23T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-30T14:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\n\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before July 1, 2025, Harvard University has a certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) programme allowing international students to enroll, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* An announcement that Harvard's certification will be restored on a date after July 1, 2025 will not suffice to resolve this question. The certification needs to be in effect for this to resolve.\n* Getting the certification at any point on July 1, 2025 would resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 37920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748605924.588353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748605924.588353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7646349084562339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29133448820962665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3736844955948373, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5582571619822913, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.1591575198244894, 0.32356993027434205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0707914158072585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8158127052797672, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1783528079640113, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.020354001336032917, 0.02358838295555427, 1.0660247681512243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.561101776449919, 0.0, 1.7180212905818728, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.7535956555594016, 0.21134819307803016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 277, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\n\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party." }, { "id": 37919, "title": "Will 20 million Americans be laid off from private sector jobs in any quarter before 2030?", "short_title": "Will 20 million Americans be laid off in any quarter before 2030?", "url_title": "Will 20 million Americans be laid off in any quarter before 2030?", "slug": "will-20-million-americans-be-laid-off-in-any-quarter-before-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-22T20:23:24.754592Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:12:36.142709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:17Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T12:30:50.778464Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37228, "title": "Will 20 million Americans be laid off from private sector jobs in any quarter before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-05-22T20:23:24.755047Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [defines](https://www.bls.gov/jlt/) a layoff or discharge as virtually any \"involuntary separation\" of an employee that was initiated by their employer. It reports America's layoff numbers in its monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) release.\n\nAt the time of this question, the history of layoffs and discharges has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Jdrb&width=670&height=475\"></iframe> \nDespite predictions of widespread layoffs due to generative AI software such as ChatGPT ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/business/ai-job-losses-by-2030-intl)) which had its widespread release at the end of 2022, no mass layoffs had yet materialized at the time of this question.\n\n[According to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelwells/2025/04/16/21-job-titles-that-will-disappear-by-2030/):\n\n> Close your eyes. Pretend that nothing is going to change. By 2030, your workplace will be unrecognizable and you’ll wish you stayed in the loop. Approximately 92 million jobs--representing about 8% of total employment--will be completely obsolete in 2030, the World Economic Forum projected in its [2025 Future of Jobs Report](https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf)\n\nForbes lists the following jobs it says could disappear \"to a greater or lesser degree\" in the latter half of the 2020s due to AI:\n\n1. Postal service clerks\n2. Bank tellers and related clerks\n3. Data entry clerks\n4. Retail cashiers and ticket clerks\n5. Administrative assistants and executive secretaries\n6. Printing and related trades workers\n7. Accounting, bookkeeping and payroll clerks\n8. Material-recording and stock-keeping clerks\n9. Transportation attendants and conductors\n10. Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers\n11. Graphic designers\n12. Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators\n13. Legal officials\n14. Legal secretaries\n15. Telemarketers\n16. Basic IT support roles\n17. Assembly line workers\n18. Machine operators\n19. Picking and handling warehouse workers\n20. Insurance underwriters\n21. Travel agents\n\nA recent [McKinsey Report](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america) has warned that 30% of hours worked by humans in 2023 could be automated by 2030. While some jobs would be hit hard, according to the report, other jobs could become more productive -- teachers for example might use gen AI to help with grading tests or creating lesson plans, allowing them to spend more time with students. Other jobs, such as healthcare, could keep rising for the foreseeable future due to long-term aging of the population.\n\nEconomic researchers at Goldman Sachs [have estimated](https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs_Kodnani.pdf) that 300 million full-time jobs in the US and Europe have exposure to automation and AI through 2030. At the high end, 46% of office and administrative, 44% of legal, and 37% of architecture and engineering tasks could be automated. On the low end, construction and installation, maintenance and repair occupations may experience minimal automation.\n\nOn the extreme pessimistic end of the continuum, Elon Musk [said](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/tech/elon-musk-ai-your-job) in 2024, \"Probably none of us will have a job.\" He added, \"If you want to do a job that’s kinda like a hobby, you can do a job. But otherwise, AI and the robots will provide any goods and services that you want.\"\n\nSee also: [AI will fundamentally transform the job market but the risk of mass unemployment is low](https://think.ing.com/articles/ai-will-fundamentally-transform-job-market-but-risk-of-mass-unemployment-is-low/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the quarterly numbers presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) at its [Layoffs and Discharges: Total Private (JTS1000LDL)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ks2c) page is greater than or equal to 20,000 thousand (i.e., twenty million) for any quarter before 2030. \n\nINSTRUCTIONS: The link above should use the correct unites, otherwise click on Edit Graph and modify frequency to Quarterly and Aggregation method to Sum. Ensure that the Units is set to Level in Thousands. ", "fine_print": "If the resolution source should have material issues such as failing to update in a timely manner, then Metaculus may consult other resolution sources including directly accessing the information from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/jlt/), which is the source agency used by FRED. In case of issues with the BLS, Metaculus may name an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), as long as the methodology is substantially equivalent.", "post_id": 37919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761304345.423245, "end_time": 1766610436.177, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761304345.423245, "end_time": 1766610436.177, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.18980393050698385 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [defines](https://www.bls.gov/jlt/) a layoff or discharge as virtually any \"involuntary separation\" of an employee that was initiated by their employer. It reports America's layoff numbers in its monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) release.\n\nAt the time of this question, the history of layoffs and discharges has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Jdrb&width=670&height=475\"></iframe> \nDespite predictions of widespread layoffs due to generative AI software such as ChatGPT ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/business/ai-job-losses-by-2030-intl)) which had its widespread release at the end of 2022, no mass layoffs had yet materialized at the time of this question.\n\n[According to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelwells/2025/04/16/21-job-titles-that-will-disappear-by-2030/):\n\n> Close your eyes. Pretend that nothing is going to change. By 2030, your workplace will be unrecognizable and you’ll wish you stayed in the loop. Approximately 92 million jobs--representing about 8% of total employment--will be completely obsolete in 2030, the World Economic Forum projected in its [2025 Future of Jobs Report](https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf)\n\nForbes lists the following jobs it says could disappear \"to a greater or lesser degree\" in the latter half of the 2020s due to AI:\n\n1. Postal service clerks\n2. Bank tellers and related clerks\n3. Data entry clerks\n4. Retail cashiers and ticket clerks\n5. Administrative assistants and executive secretaries\n6. Printing and related trades workers\n7. Accounting, bookkeeping and payroll clerks\n8. Material-recording and stock-keeping clerks\n9. Transportation attendants and conductors\n10. Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers\n11. Graphic designers\n12. Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators\n13. Legal officials\n14. Legal secretaries\n15. Telemarketers\n16. Basic IT support roles\n17. Assembly line workers\n18. Machine operators\n19. Picking and handling warehouse workers\n20. Insurance underwriters\n21. Travel agents\n\nA recent [McKinsey Report](https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/generative-ai-and-the-future-of-work-in-america) has warned that 30% of hours worked by humans in 2023 could be automated by 2030. While some jobs would be hit hard, according to the report, other jobs could become more productive -- teachers for example might use gen AI to help with grading tests or creating lesson plans, allowing them to spend more time with students. Other jobs, such as healthcare, could keep rising for the foreseeable future due to long-term aging of the population.\n\nEconomic researchers at Goldman Sachs [have estimated](https://www.key4biz.it/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Global-Economics-Analyst_-The-Potentially-Large-Effects-of-Artificial-Intelligence-on-Economic-Growth-Briggs_Kodnani.pdf) that 300 million full-time jobs in the US and Europe have exposure to automation and AI through 2030. At the high end, 46% of office and administrative, 44% of legal, and 37% of architecture and engineering tasks could be automated. On the low end, construction and installation, maintenance and repair occupations may experience minimal automation.\n\nOn the extreme pessimistic end of the continuum, Elon Musk [said](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/tech/elon-musk-ai-your-job) in 2024, \"Probably none of us will have a job.\" He added, \"If you want to do a job that’s kinda like a hobby, you can do a job. But otherwise, AI and the robots will provide any goods and services that you want.\"\n\nSee also: [AI will fundamentally transform the job market but the risk of mass unemployment is low](https://think.ing.com/articles/ai-will-fundamentally-transform-job-market-but-risk-of-mass-unemployment-is-low/)" }, { "id": 37905, "title": "Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?", "short_title": "Legislation before '29 reduces long-term capital gains rate for highest bracket?", "url_title": "Legislation before '29 reduces long-term capital gains rate for highest bracket?", "slug": "legislation-before-29-reduces-long-term-capital-gains-rate-for-highest-bracket", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-21T16:51:13.476343Z", "published_at": "2025-06-30T13:29:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T20:34:36.386324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-30T13:29:56Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-01T13:29:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ] }, "question": { "id": 37215, "title": "Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?", "created_at": "2025-05-21T16:51:13.476753Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T13:29:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-05T13:29:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-05T13:29:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate in the United States, applied to assets held over one year, is [<u>currently 0%, 15%, or 20% based on income and filing status for 2024 and 2025</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates). For the highest income bracket—[<u>single filers with taxable income above \\$518,900 or married couples filing jointly above \\$583,750 in 2024—the rate is 20%</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates), plus a [<u>3.8% net investment income tax</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates) for certain high earners. Established under the [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-businesses), these rates are distinct from short-term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income ([<u>up to 37%</u>](https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/investments-and-taxes/guide-to-short-term-vs-long-term-capital-gains-taxes-brokerage-accounts-etc/L7KCu9etn)). The TCJA’s individual tax provisions, including LTCG rates, are set to expire after 2025, creating a window for legislative changes.\n\nRecent proposals, such as the 2025 House Budget Committee’s “[<u>One Big Beautiful Bill</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf),” focus on extending [<u>TCJA provisions but do not explicitly prioritize reducing the 20% LTCG rate for top earners</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf). Meanwhile, political discourse includes competing ideas, such as increasing the[<u> top income tax rate to 39.6%</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/5/5/raising-top-ordinary-rates-options-under-tcja-extension) or alternative tax cuts like [<u>eliminating taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/21/no-tax-on-tips-act-passes-senate/). Republican control of Congress and budget reconciliation could facilitate tax cuts, but deficit concerns may shift focus away from LTCG reductions. Critics argue the current LTCG system disproportionately benefits the wealthy due to tax deferral advantages, fueling debates over reform.\n\nIf this market resolves to “Yes,” a reduced LTCG rate could stimulate investment by lowering the tax burden on high earners, potentially boosting stock market activity and economic growth, as suggested by the Tax Foundation. However, it could exacerbate income inequality, as benefits would primarily accrue to the top 1%, who hold significant investment assets. Federal revenue could decline, with [<u>estimates suggesting a 1% rate cut might reduce receipts by billions annually</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/), potentially increasing deficits unless offset by other measures. Politically, such a reduction could face public backlash amid growing scrutiny of wealth concentration, influencing future tax policy debates. This question hinges on whether economic priorities and political will align to enact this change by 2029.\n\nThis question was inspired by the “[<u>Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)” market on [<u>Polymarket</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, legislation is enacted that reduces the federal long-term capital gains (LTGC) tax rate for the highest bracket from the current 20%.", "fine_print": "* The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for at least one of the following: single filers, those married filing jointly, or those married filing separately.\n* Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.", "post_id": 37905, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760021385.666, "end_time": 1763077324.64, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760021385.666, "end_time": 1763077324.64, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6493551941972351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2102183212949817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0424866552825716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate in the United States, applied to assets held over one year, is [<u>currently 0%, 15%, or 20% based on income and filing status for 2024 and 2025</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates). For the highest income bracket—[<u>single filers with taxable income above \\$518,900 or married couples filing jointly above \\$583,750 in 2024—the rate is 20%</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates), plus a [<u>3.8% net investment income tax</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates) for certain high earners. Established under the [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-businesses), these rates are distinct from short-term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income ([<u>up to 37%</u>](https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/investments-and-taxes/guide-to-short-term-vs-long-term-capital-gains-taxes-brokerage-accounts-etc/L7KCu9etn)). The TCJA’s individual tax provisions, including LTCG rates, are set to expire after 2025, creating a window for legislative changes.\n\nRecent proposals, such as the 2025 House Budget Committee’s “[<u>One Big Beautiful Bill</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf),” focus on extending [<u>TCJA provisions but do not explicitly prioritize reducing the 20% LTCG rate for top earners</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf). Meanwhile, political discourse includes competing ideas, such as increasing the[<u> top income tax rate to 39.6%</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/5/5/raising-top-ordinary-rates-options-under-tcja-extension) or alternative tax cuts like [<u>eliminating taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/21/no-tax-on-tips-act-passes-senate/). Republican control of Congress and budget reconciliation could facilitate tax cuts, but deficit concerns may shift focus away from LTCG reductions. Critics argue the current LTCG system disproportionately benefits the wealthy due to tax deferral advantages, fueling debates over reform.\n\nIf this market resolves to “Yes,” a reduced LTCG rate could stimulate investment by lowering the tax burden on high earners, potentially boosting stock market activity and economic growth, as suggested by the Tax Foundation. However, it could exacerbate income inequality, as benefits would primarily accrue to the top 1%, who hold significant investment assets. Federal revenue could decline, with [<u>estimates suggesting a 1% rate cut might reduce receipts by billions annually</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/), potentially increasing deficits unless offset by other measures. Politically, such a reduction could face public backlash amid growing scrutiny of wealth concentration, influencing future tax policy debates. This question hinges on whether economic priorities and political will align to enact this change by 2029.\n\nThis question was inspired by the “[<u>Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)” market on [<u>Polymarket</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)." } ] }
