Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=900
{ "count": 6299, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=880", "results": [ { "id": 37841, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kneecap-perform-at-glastonbury-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.397720Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.724145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37163, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.397720Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-28T20:09:59.208267Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kneecap officially performs at Glastonbury 2025, scheduled for June 25 to June 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "* If Glastonbury 2025 does not take place before September 1, 2025 this question will be **annulled**.\n* Officially perform is defined as a planned performance as allowed by the festival organisers.\n* Any official performance is considered sufficient for this question. If, for example, one band member is banned from the festival, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the other member(s) perform under the name Kneecap.", "post_id": 37841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748017312.231055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748017312.231055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6301188408572048 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05868412703184981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6718805327177122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9087605986357024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 1.1375175873954366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060590796089441686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1917561489620048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44085659153368545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.52291382915045, 0.304297230269704, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.0, 1.8298418940161074, 0.6338162109370695, 0.0, 0.7541212514821088, 0.0, 1.7332008244102441, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8942180920825968, 0.3915107710373727, 1.389072846549451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2853515621283832, 0.0, 0.07066464007099293, 0.5633522238557361, 0.0, 0.12595925847878922, 0.0, 0.395506114628133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25051740141682394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16714435327428795, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.836294640198574, "peer_score": 6.227184631703227, "coverage": 0.9866271262367566, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866271262367566, "spot_peer_score": 6.960246429537375, "spot_baseline_score": 40.053792958372874, "baseline_archived_score": 38.836294640198574, "peer_archived_score": 6.227184631703227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.960246429537375, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.053792958372874 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup." }, { "id": 37837, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-reported-by-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-exceed-400-for-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.242795Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.718189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37159, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.242795Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:24:09.082375Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 400 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of June 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37837, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747984670.467125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3755759712140315 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747984670.467125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3755759712140315 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31446125822660426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1130426062565061, 0.0, 0.7125982721316562, 0.17433684005092911, 0.12211553853510328, 0.0, 0.0, 2.001453478518637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8245269462455034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8676179093902499, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1903329969442877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4951761874784477, 0.0, 1.7937487577855578, 0.13100237621305458, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15798149845717946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0175765062607272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7011277469733959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 0.2035312230718478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.15607413069486, "peer_score": 5.94925531875684, "coverage": 0.9854599670900237, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9854599670900237, "spot_peer_score": 3.1622074580849926, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 53.15607413069486, "peer_archived_score": 5.94925531875684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1622074580849926, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37836, "title": "Will there be greater than 31 direct flight destinations from Erbil, Iraq on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-31-direct-flight-destinations-from-erbil-iraq-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.237732Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.710136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37158, "title": "Will there be greater than 31 direct flight destinations from Erbil, Iraq on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.237732Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:27:06.947682Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Shafaq News: [Kurdistan Summer 2025: A Promising Season](https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Kurdistan-Summer-2025-A-Promising-Season)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are greater than 31 direct flight destinations listed at the [All scheduled direct (non-stop) flights from Erbil (EBL)](https://www.flightsfrom.com/EBL) tracker when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747977484.662887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747977484.662887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5338955717073305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07113353320870651, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1887305402026513, 0.0, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28064042479990337, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2083898513752235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.3811666115233465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.5350223474153328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.099456758870216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46674658611937064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13136855739070957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.891064834126605, 0.7513609248868253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6553298634783278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 1.2990786581517115, 0.0, 0.4951761874784477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15184642777968735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06562619069267198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9786220130279569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.15134482788356746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218363742968483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -26.496340960067847, "peer_score": 1.7877373636311664, "coverage": 0.9804300161202748, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9804300161202748, "spot_peer_score": -0.5388574838738339, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -26.496340960067847, "peer_archived_score": 1.7877373636311664, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5388574838738339, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Shafaq News: [Kurdistan Summer 2025: A Promising Season](https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Kurdistan-Summer-2025-A-Promising-Season)" }, { "id": 37835, "title": "Will Ralph Norman declare his candidacy for the US Senate race in South Carolina before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ralph-norman-declare-his-candidacy-for-the-us-senate-race-in-south-carolina-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.232654Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.248988Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-23T14:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37157, "title": "Will Rob Sand declare his candidacy for governor of Iowa before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.232654Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-23T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-23T14:35:48.495746Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Axios: [Sen. Lindsey Graham may face right-wing primary challenge in 2026](https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/lindsey-graham-primary-challenge-ralph-norman)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Will Ralph Norman declares his candidacy for the US Senate race in South Carolina before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37835, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747971403.498173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747971403.498173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.558217973633651 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8029232286253831, 0.5451197344970368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7880191898649213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9816270479949092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5780447463492013, 0.0, 0.26371107332072236, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7629808288400437, 0.15948589188226622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1700423646580007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6986181450882394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4637898746249849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5804197412804394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8374418253394589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019035910633072858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.471387384530526, 0.7435559291617456, 1.6294066411441732, 1.3383817861878362, 1.743330048936038 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Axios: [Sen. Lindsey Graham may face right-wing primary challenge in 2026](https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/lindsey-graham-primary-challenge-ralph-norman)" }, { "id": 37833, "title": "Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before July 1, 2025", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-or-elon-musk-tweet-x-post-about-the-diversity-visa-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.221832Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.314579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37155, "title": "Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before April 1, 2025", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.221832Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:26:07.753616Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | Recent tweet [here](https://x.com/fentasyl/status/1894451029934039492) from a Twitter/X account followed by Elon Musk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025 either Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet using the exact words \"diversity visa\" as shown through [this search](https://x.com/search?f=top&q=%22diversity%20visa%22%20(from%3Arealdonaldtrump%20OR%20from%3Aelonmusk)&src=typed_query) on Twitter/X, which will be checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If a tweet (now renamed to X post) containing the phrase is seen by a Metaculus Admin at that time, this question resolves as **Yes**. If not, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37833, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747956617.971321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747956617.971321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12257028959047096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3264203165824449, 0.2867886946879334, 0.7087937680403422, 0.17433684005092911, 2.3769768894754764, 0.0, 0.9861673299694157, 0.5935735468969371, 0.24103551262963233, 2.1212980384528497, 0.0, 0.6683702162141048, 0.10487932907659522, 1.3103806307832577, 2.2011316516692743, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.42991213882766277, 0.0, 0.2003700824355088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0931517473330581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6307742707290258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9333746252743649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.83210787198101, "peer_score": 4.047166609513178, "coverage": 0.9873300870921876, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873300870921876, "spot_peer_score": 4.462544206163684, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 82.83210787198101, "peer_archived_score": 4.047166609513178, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.462544206163684, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | Recent tweet [here](https://x.com/fentasyl/status/1894451029934039492) from a Twitter/X account followed by Elon Musk." }, { "id": 37832, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Databricks announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-databricks-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.082547Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.162667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37154, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Databricks announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.082547Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:33:03.764609Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TechCrunch: ['It's dumb to IPO this year': Databricks CEO explains why he's waiting to go public](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-ipo-databricks-ceo-explains-064957000.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Databricks, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) Databricks filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.databricks.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37832, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747949423.843793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.128 ], "centers": [ 0.15572728657071727 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747949423.843793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.128 ], "centers": [ 0.15572728657071727 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8442727134292827, 0.15572728657071727 ], "means": [ 0.19184965609750082 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7744825237140978, 0.38896266765831033, 0.0, 0.0005367069401959898, 0.6701403139738773, 0.7955107352455036, 0.15363062476929543, 1.0000857775115333, 0.0, 0.0, 4.300938969093462, 0.0, 0.12385827512205734, 0.4139483126176931, 0.02356201288525273, 0.7737637180179823, 0.1893492622778734, 0.36530671002920095, 0.0, 0.0, 2.227021179621147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.638904261888047, 0.8442492377349747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05718238516403556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14344605685660422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16482953151796573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3429179627815088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.56725605919779, "peer_score": 6.278755833130078, "coverage": 0.9871638826529184, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871638826529184, "spot_peer_score": 7.39644929445619, "spot_baseline_score": 75.57809926246296, "baseline_archived_score": 72.56725605919779, "peer_archived_score": 6.278755833130078, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.39644929445619, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 75.57809926246296 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TechCrunch: ['It's dumb to IPO this year': Databricks CEO explains why he's waiting to go public](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-ipo-databricks-ceo-explains-064957000.html)" }, { "id": 37831, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Mali reverse its decision to dissolve all political parties?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-the-government-of-mali-reverse-its-decision-to-dissolve-all-political-parties", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.077465Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.292840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37153, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will the government of Mali reverse its decision to dissolve all political parties?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.077465Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:39:30.328993Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Mali's Military Government Shuts Down All Political Parties](https://www.legit.ng/world/africa/1654992-malis-military-government-shuts-political-parties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the government of Mali announces a reversal of its May 13, 2025 presidential decree dissolving all political parties in the country.", "fine_print": "A partial reversal, such as allowing the reinstatement of a limited number of parties, will only count as long as new parties are generally allowed to be formed again.", "post_id": 37831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747942222.913645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.063 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747942222.913645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.063 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.12472924251520616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5211444104474305, 0.18691676533295776, 2.3794995141959374, 1.115279072620734, 0.7087937680403422, 0.0, 0.14085966230613312, 1.672938466028424, 0.0, 0.6984762517802324, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 4.673511775444039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5590197058964325, 0.46572683269050547, 1.9460647710345378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36693350620201254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019736222082442135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.24305317710858, "peer_score": 1.3467062990406224, "coverage": 0.9848920192983417, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9848920192983417, "spot_peer_score": 1.2891023549237206, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 76.24305317710858, "peer_archived_score": 1.3467062990406224, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2891023549237206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Mali's Military Government Shuts Down All Political Parties](https://www.legit.ng/world/africa/1654992-malis-military-government-shuts-political-parties/)" }, { "id": 37828, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Rippling announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-rippling-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.061739Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.480620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37150, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Rippling announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.061739Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:40:47.045867Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Startup News: Shares of HR firm Rippling gain value as its business expands](https://forgeglobal.com/insights/blog/startup-news-shares-of-rippling-gain-value-as-its-business-expands/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rippling, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://www.rippling.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37828, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747920665.733079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747920665.733079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12062031272386634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17672342147353706, 0.7096930984308121, 1.6797949975516433, 0.0, 3.0848579693105505, 0.015789022061289532, 0.44306796362986833, 0.8449867549685746, 0.0, 2.338776932932984, 0.0, 0.28835692637402716, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4427208289638247, 0.0, 0.01936531092725104, 0.0, 0.893587478567622, 2.274602596606681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7973400546120943, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001839023418757394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530671002920095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.4653982232692, "peer_score": 5.020227693083068, "coverage": 0.9857892556985219, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9857892556985219, "spot_peer_score": 5.013940503571366, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 83.4653982232692, "peer_archived_score": 5.020227693083068, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.013940503571366, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Startup News: Shares of HR firm Rippling gain value as its business expands](https://forgeglobal.com/insights/blog/startup-news-shares-of-rippling-gain-value-as-its-business-expands/)" }, { "id": 37827, "title": "Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in Africa in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-pilot-report-of-ufos-come-from-a-country-in-africa-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.928929Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.870628Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37149, "title": "Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in Africa in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.928929Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:41:14.635408Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/sighting/?id=186297) a 4 craft inline formation of UFOs having been sighted on January 1, 2025 in Rwanda.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a pilot report of a UFO/UAP having occurred in a country on the African continent, during the month of June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37827, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747914049.883799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08150000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747914049.883799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08150000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11431861781385752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.16482953151796573, 0.0, 0.410822061534692, 0.034166571748472256, 2.1792367504617225, 0.5378065877397504, 0.07282349883545862, 1.2651601991415315, 1.8829374810493102, 2.125983829209527, 0.15363062476929543, 1.1829087970061178, 0.7527531912644363, 0.0, 3.9954649712105974, 0.0, 0.13317800265805058, 0.33203710961836935, 0.0, 0.28330536958067554, 0.4975492865919905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26487459163151467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00805738445541778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11510138539572264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.60916641656043, "peer_score": 2.911885758623793, "coverage": 0.9858353992965487, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9858353992965487, "spot_peer_score": 3.3806301412298363, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 82.60916641656043, "peer_archived_score": 2.911885758623793, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3806301412298363, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/sighting/?id=186297) a 4 craft inline formation of UFOs having been sighted on January 1, 2025 in Rwanda." }, { "id": 37826, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-indian-armed-forces-execute-a-kinetic-attack-in-pakistan-proper-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.922931Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.460173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37148, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.922931Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:51:47.932916Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [2025 India–Pakistan conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after May 31, 2025 and before July 1, 2025 the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack on targets in one of the following provinces of Pakistan: Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab, or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.", "fine_print": "To count, an attack must be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using explosive weaponry or physical violence. Non-kinetic actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 37826, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747906273.126063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747906273.126063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.197080086062983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12174039221355969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055676650705994916, 0.5935735468969371, 0.652608466856256, 0.6465210153620151, 0.4138922856728912, 0.0, 0.27186203851918767, 3.724145064243194, 0.0, 1.0504395830385367, 0.0, 1.7087937680403422, 1.2881901939815315, 0.0, 0.27013205780960337, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9122433751559047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5590197058964325, 0.0, 0.15345935374755593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5669194072901329, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0770239322499232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.73498974357851, "peer_score": 2.393765280671042, "coverage": 0.9852035676439603, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9852035676439603, "spot_peer_score": 3.842503502502105, "spot_baseline_score": 69.59938131099001, "baseline_archived_score": 65.73498974357851, "peer_archived_score": 2.393765280671042, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.842503502502105, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 69.59938131099001 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [2025 India–Pakistan conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict)" }, { "id": 37822, "title": "Will Beto O'Rourke announce his candidacy for US Senator from Texas before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-beto-orourke-announce-his-candidacy-for-us-senator-from-texas-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.600686Z", "published_at": "2025-05-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.863490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37144, "title": "Will Beto O'Rourke announce his candidacy for US Senator from Texas before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.600686Z", "open_time": "2025-05-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:56:06.187492Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fort Worth Star-Telegram: [Beto O’Rourke says ‘if’ Texans want him to run for U.S. Senate, ‘yes I will'](https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/bud-kennedy)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beto O'Rourke announces his candidacy for US Senator from Texas before July 1, 2025. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37822, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747879139.684501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2866666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.32499999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42500000000000004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747879139.684501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2866666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.32499999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42500000000000004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.675, 0.32499999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.3672186034847979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20103674410743155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054555196179487855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4287488776674138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7912793091199047, 1.108483940073222, 0.1900906837396931, 0.0, 0.20409162864023808, 0.0, 0.2246984420585525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902523718939138, 0.0, 2.517376915091941, 0.0, 1.4244899299133535, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6268184823992509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5499123981425624, 0.0, 1.3498070235582427, 0.0, 1.3756459167785118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45555165592256447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.516720051368963, 0.06993045450605567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21896889103996162, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13921377900934095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8036646835440269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35187441874087827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3294207062950159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.24988560090183, "peer_score": 7.950347741325047, "coverage": 0.9816853645775053, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9816853645775053, "spot_peer_score": 8.834164841077532, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "baseline_archived_score": 45.24988560090183, "peer_archived_score": 7.950347741325047, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.834164841077532, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fort Worth Star-Telegram: [Beto O’Rourke says ‘if’ Texans want him to run for U.S. Senate, ‘yes I will'](https://www.star-telegram.com/opinion/bud-kennedy)" }, { "id": 37818, "title": "Will Florida have the most pilot sightings of UFOs of any US state in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-florida-have-the-most-pilot-sightings-of-ufos-of-any-us-state-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.574073Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.147732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37140, "title": "Will Florida have the most pilot sightings of UFOs of any US state in March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.574073Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T23:56:08.574808Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts more pilot reports of a UFO/UAP having occurred in the state of Florida than any other state, for the month of June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "If Florida is tied with another state, resolves as No.", "post_id": 37818, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747848621.29286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875594059979885 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747848621.29286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875594059979885 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2422715690863207 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.707173321785911, 0.0, 1.1336979322710188, 0.0, 0.6665693504079824, 0.0, 0.010161794999997649, 2.542340288275725, 0.002932907971702584, 0.0, 0.0628495165142835, 0.18445819292609114, 2.012019718108576, 0.0, 0.04562961964144999, 0.03492559661360599, 0.0, 4.103353293184103, 0.11096823546370398, 0.01141460135193492, 0.8663216688048672, 0.0, 0.64296147398154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2236311393020134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03185388076940161, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04974680833615912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7958075085988218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021671421535911298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.16782448785252, "peer_score": 1.4455996846207226, "coverage": 0.98557726237509, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.98557726237509, "spot_peer_score": 0.2084270518104431, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 59.16782448785252, "peer_archived_score": 1.4455996846207226, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2084270518104431, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37817, "title": "Will there be greater than 5 direct flight destinations from Koror, Palau on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-5-direct-flight-destinations-from-koror-palau-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.287678Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.638205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37139, "title": "Will there be greater than 5 direct flight destinations from Koror, Palau on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.287678Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:21:15.707884Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marketplace: [Why hasn’t tourism recovered in Palau? Flights haven’t restarted in high volume since the pandemic drop-off, and South Koreans are booking their vacations elsewhere.](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/04/19/palau-tourism)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are greater than 5 direct flight destinations listed at the [All scheduled direct (non-stop) flights from Koror (ROR)](https://www.flightsfrom.com/ROR) tracker when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37817, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747841419.717047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8999999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747841419.717047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8999999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5166666666666666, 0.48333333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.5496701143964281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4607201881542152, 0.7084540135537495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7937707065887178, 0.01511014823377393, 0.0, 0.5114356710740189, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7529197429078285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.79984263716783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3810919053759498, 0.0, 0.15224018568606631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0453501166194548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9444368072528766, 0.0, 0.2748170669261738, 0.6647367894266478, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004937664799221555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8916243659088019, 1.362505224777827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33493505235387105, 0.0, 0.04424069828384508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09330886589633765, 0.6456790316446809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5545426186623912, 0.8190676361763076, 0.0, 0.9394481381130773, 0.0, 0.8414412190720929, 1.0173394992895908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.06761206954951, "peer_score": 24.35792729775386, "coverage": 0.9856857252783247, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9856857252783247, "spot_peer_score": 11.992076011359798, "spot_baseline_score": -4.89096004809464, "baseline_archived_score": 11.06761206954951, "peer_archived_score": 24.35792729775386, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.992076011359798, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -4.89096004809464 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marketplace: [Why hasn’t tourism recovered in Palau? Flights haven’t restarted in high volume since the pandemic drop-off, and South Koreans are booking their vacations elsewhere.](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/04/19/palau-tourism)" }, { "id": 37815, "title": "Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in South America in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-pilot-report-of-ufos-come-from-a-country-in-south-america-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.277555Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.976081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37137, "title": "Will a pilot report of UFOs come from a country in South America in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.277555Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:35:40.756275Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) a sighting in Brazil in December 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a pilot report of a UFO/UAP having occurred in a country on the South American continent, during the month of June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37815, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747827024.20841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747827024.20841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.22941775168306716 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17801954162256386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036355092659934507, 0.0, 0.7214077718817536, 0.0, 0.9795346159421037, 0.162491984359063, 0.8517169891806903, 0.055676650705994916, 0.5281853916451023, 3.6575267753063567, 0.0, 1.0176671843585372, 0.8225084485162408, 0.7718432200348443, 0.5440437914038034, 0.0, 0.4859954234846692, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2672496981322192, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1130426062565061, 0.029001439798616007, 0.3191073460209369, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 1.021400024432729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5686239159423085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15134482788356746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.24343947379596, "peer_score": 5.766405374806355, "coverage": 0.9856263898478614, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9856263898478614, "spot_peer_score": 6.875316643869921, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "baseline_archived_score": 70.24343947379596, "peer_archived_score": 5.766405374806355, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.875316643869921, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For example, the resolution source [reports](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=x) a sighting in Brazil in December 2024." }, { "id": 37813, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-report-a-sighting-of-a-cube-shaped-ufo-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.266776Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.296291Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T01:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37135, "title": "Will the National UFO Reporting Center report a sighting of a cube-shaped UFO in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:13.266776Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T01:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-29T01:07:34.932114Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in June 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape.", "post_id": 37813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747805419.281641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2512548314613604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 1.0857358715749945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1394820725083266, 0.0, 0.041956810111431826, 0.8929452323661959, 0.15134482788356746, 1.1763299495252282, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.14974273503116875, 1.162437690328545, 0.08685842761080065, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7694824287637623, 0.0, 0.21896262191675547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19414146028744744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5175701831426534, 1.3387879818050314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09445334520824408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6345179599839332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18691676533295776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_score": -14.900055844965628, "coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792892124917771, "spot_peer_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311394, "baseline_archived_score": -138.98808260487198, "peer_archived_score": -14.900055844965628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.329231311471206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311394 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"" }, { "id": 37812, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-greater-than-51-direct-flight-destinations-from-beirut-lebanon-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.504894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37134, "title": "Will there be greater than 51 direct flight destinations from Beirut, Lebanon on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.996448Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:20:13.927310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are greater than 51 direct flight destinations listed at the [All scheduled direct (non-stop) flights from Beirut (BEY)](https://www.flightsfrom.com/BEY) tracker when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747798624.525008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7140674794897715 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5063655635986357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23427673540695396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.30579639447751494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42743436804282564, 0.4927652120469003, 0.2596434091051626, 0.0, 0.0, 1.526262182873908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7017271134006824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6155780074601669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6808596940113538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423945157233667, 0.0, 0.00797247044402181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0363060697435569, 0.0, 1.5602265788939678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47662737312621684, 0.0, 0.7596602688942424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.7499437156931522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9081203094652626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004665038222800205, 0.7758598759193146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40880911918637236, 0.0, 1.2565842563249885, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.007021506238153396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.907020247050982, "peer_score": 12.893756098244474, "coverage": 0.9834461755553878, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9834461755553878, "spot_peer_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -7.907020247050982, "peer_archived_score": 12.893756098244474, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.728001939642178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Catholic News Agency: [Lebanon will soon have its own ‘camino,’ once traveled by Christ and the Romans](https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263055/caminos-lebanon-new-initiative-is-designed-to-revive-religious-tourism-in-the-country) | Travel and Tour World: [Lebanon’s Hospitality Sector In Peril: Rising Costs And Low Tourism Threaten Survival](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/lebanons-hospitality-sector-in-peril-rising-costs-and-low-tourism-threaten-survival/) | The New Arab: [Summer canceIled: Israeli attack hits Lebanon tourism hopes](https://www.newarab.com/news/summer-canceiled-israeli-attack-hits-lebanon-tourism-hopes)" }, { "id": 37811, "title": "Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-noaas-climategov-still-be-online-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.991186Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.961155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37133, "title": "Will NOAA's Climate.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.991186Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:06:40.461945Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "National Security Archive: [Disappearing Data: Trump Administration Removing Climate Information from Government Websites](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/climate-change-transparency-project-foia/2025-02-06/disappearing-data-trump)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Climate.gov is online according to [Is It Down Right Now?](https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/climate.gov.html) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "As of May 7, 2025, the resolution source returns the message, \"Climate.gov is UP and reachable by us.\"", "post_id": 37811, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747792759.563846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747792759.563846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8352064440768255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3700306976932953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.888825836472129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.264204510696677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6280112617321103, 0.0, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19939875882940844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8443503119530461, 0.21352449006712118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4801032618269796, 5.643753559604825, 0.1848243905632059, 0.0, 0.5804197412804394, 0.0, 1.2966715716510353, 0.39525243610674604, 0.5110558982811023, 0.0, 0.18880266378679852, 2.5409629726554432, 0.035159820106228076, 0.0, 0.07855127008230973, 0.24596271568940553 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.24760026323983, "peer_score": 2.555824549060908, "coverage": 0.9821811773710781, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9821811773710781, "spot_peer_score": 2.8023521415271575, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 76.24760026323983, "peer_archived_score": 2.555824549060908, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8023521415271575, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "National Security Archive: [Disappearing Data: Trump Administration Removing Climate Information from Government Websites](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/climate-change-transparency-project-foia/2025-02-06/disappearing-data-trump)" }, { "id": 37809, "title": "Will any major league baseball player have a .400 batting average on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-major-league-baseball-player-have-a-400-batting-average-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.980847Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.419710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37131, "title": "Will any major league baseball player have a .400 batting average on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.980847Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:07:34.635942Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.65, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "theScore: [How long can Judge's .400 batting average last?](https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3284701/how-long-can-judges-400-batting-average-last)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on July 1, 2025, any Major League Baseball player in the 2025 regular season has a batting average of greater than or equal to .400 according to the [ESPN baseball stats page](https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37809, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747769422.8676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.063 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22100000000000003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747769422.8676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.063 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22100000000000003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17114328883245064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.7973400546120943, 1.0293757108651225, 0.0, 1.8563077121817182, 0.6045052132610943, 0.0, 1.2045073630708432, 0.0, 0.03429866466637881, 0.021381004391399547, 0.0, 1.447379677743898, 0.7527531912644363, 1.6460876557081767, 0.0919202996362008, 0.13317800265805058, 1.0770997334160584, 0.0, 0.9965135245761712, 0.0, 0.713006917639707, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0612150126803437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6861648947606042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0432170373364462, 0.20274572289943904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07877593890689805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06909335102148065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.97185656314784, "peer_score": 8.92354434352491, "coverage": 0.9867985861168969, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9867985861168969, "spot_peer_score": 8.939884722904859, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 74.97185656314784, "peer_archived_score": 8.92354434352491, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.939884722904859, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "theScore: [How long can Judge's .400 batting average last?](https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/3284701/how-long-can-judges-400-batting-average-last)" }, { "id": 37808, "title": "Will the US State Department's Diversity Visa page still be online on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-state-departments-diversity-visa-page-still-be-online-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.975232Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.585460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37130, "title": "Will the US State Department's Diversity Visa page still be online on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.975232Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T13:34:42.739304Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | [Donald Trump's 2017 tweet discussing the DV program](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925684982307348480)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Step 1 Submit an Entry page with instructions for registering for the Diversity Immigrant Visa (DV) Program is at [this location](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/diversity-visa-program-entry/diversity-visa-submit-entry1.html) when attempted to be accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37808, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747761392.054609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.842 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9463999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747761392.054609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.842 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9463999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8473509142008687 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8346902304150936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3259051703635483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.060323836526614, 0.8442492377349747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4681721830972806, 2.595467645032722, 0.0, 1.070310900041159, 0.6451582645164554, 0.0, 0.861097829026817, 0.12385827512205734, 1.462751656474087, 0.6319212255249617, 0.8859311939224869, 3.579645109774197, 0.0, 0.055722934671942226, 0.23680880055031886, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.29767051267845, "peer_score": 2.536014605433844, "coverage": 0.9873541316721174, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873541316721174, "spot_peer_score": 3.1275491439454544, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 81.29767051267845, "peer_archived_score": 2.536014605433844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1275491439454544, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Federal judge’s order leaves many visa lottery winners out of luck](https://www.siliconvalley.com/2020/10/01/judges-order-leaves-many-visa-lottery-winners-out-of-luck/) | [Donald Trump's 2017 tweet discussing the DV program](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925684982307348480)" }, { "id": 37807, "title": "Will the USDA still list \"snack foods\" on its \"What Can SNAP Buy?\" page on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-still-list-snack-foods-on-its-what-can-snap-buy-page-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.691784Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.482008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37129, "title": "Will the USDA still list \"snack foods\" on its \"What Can SNAP Buy?\" page on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:12.691784Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:08:20.578029Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NY Post: [Americans on food stamps could be banned from buying ‘bad food and sugary drinks,’ Trump USDA chief says](https://nypost.com/2025/02/14/us-news/americans-on-food-stamps-could-be-banned-from-buying-bad-food-and-sugary-drinks-trump-usda-chief-says/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"snack foods\" is specifically listed on the United States Department of Agriculture's [What Can SNAP Buy?](https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/eligible-food-items) webpage as something that is explicitly mentioned as something that can can be purchased by recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. (Forecasters please note that it *is* explicitly mentioned as of May 5, 2025.) If it is *not* explicitly mentioned when checked by Metataculus on or after July 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In order to streamline resolution, synonyms will not count; the phrase must specifically be \"snack foods.\" The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to the end of the question resolutions period, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 37807, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747754414.547656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747754414.547656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8291520151260855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0991598257291094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6670957639572275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 2.644893125974967, 0.0, 0.7973400546120943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47837633600084317, 0.5612035277678419, 1.405825177212185, 0.031209075815422052, 0.10687792566038573, 2.9688553129755917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.5235382534942101, 0.0, 0.17625242251143267, 0.28312335068239114, 1.6558519741647002, 1.9318226190381695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.14108712379192, "peer_score": 3.3834178601637523, "coverage": 0.9864826779233085, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864826779233085, "spot_peer_score": 1.9048979106913566, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "baseline_archived_score": 72.14108712379192, "peer_archived_score": 3.3834178601637523, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9048979106913566, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Post: [Americans on food stamps could be banned from buying ‘bad food and sugary drinks,’ Trump USDA chief says](https://nypost.com/2025/02/14/us-news/americans-on-food-stamps-could-be-banned-from-buying-bad-food-and-sugary-drinks-trump-usda-chief-says/)" } ] }
