Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=900
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=880", "results": [ { "id": 35914, "title": "Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-claude-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.925232Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.910694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:29:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35348, "title": "Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.925232Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:29:32.174242Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022).\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"claude\" is in the number 1 Overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741815981.125242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815981.125242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18958402134802077 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.21572547604369705, 0.19073805166550978, 0.4683522958367005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.967042202505489, 0.0, 1.5549817417621208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 1.885625157214617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.04572981098536, "peer_score": 4.013645973947211, "coverage": 0.9722053008609349, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9722053008609349, "spot_peer_score": 5.400286336121245, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 75.04572981098536, "peer_archived_score": 4.013645973947211, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.400286336121245, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022).\"" }, { "id": 35913, "title": "Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-gemini-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.892766Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.599828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:28:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35347, "title": "Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.892766Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:28:51.384547Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the models \"Gemini-Exp-1206\" and \"Gemini-2.0-Flash-Thinking-Exp-1219.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"gemini\" is in the number 1 Overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741816228.280286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816228.280286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.38326048450126354 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21741093226591512, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3256481231000958, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1981270302177256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3540602060194846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0258135882461514, 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"single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the models \"Gemini-Exp-1206\" and \"Gemini-2.0-Flash-Thinking-Exp-1219.\"" }, { "id": 35912, "title": "Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-openai-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.567712Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.595330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35346, "title": "Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.567712Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T00:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T00:27:46.363218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the model \"ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-11-20).\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model owned by OpenAI is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35912, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741815964.197168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815964.197168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.544, 0.456 ], "means": [ 0.47162067526495394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.489237184176523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6864664069476883, 0.3058323220141224, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6843868615011792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35344, "title": "Will Canada revoke Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.505776Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:24:12.315742Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, 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Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Canada's government officially revokes Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35910, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.030872623545887302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43159266452876244, 3.8216984636022877, 1.0324753569746579, 0.6195764615073515, 0.6896218051583209, 2.736425552192485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.118705174182, "peer_score": 1.7303549511982173, "coverage": 0.9939675833119286, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939675833119286, "spot_peer_score": 1.9905998413253654, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 96.118705174182, "peer_archived_score": 1.7303549511982173, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9905998413253654, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Times: [Over 230,000 Sign Petition Calling for Musk’s Canadian Citizenship to Be Revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/us/politics/elon-musk-canada-citizenship.html) \"It is unclear whether Mr. Musk has had any involvement in Mr. Trump's approach to relations with Canada, though his posts on social media have repeatedly made jabs at the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"" }, { "id": 35907, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jumaane-williams-run-for-mayor-of-new-york-city", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "published_at": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.644445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T21:50:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35341, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T21:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T21:51:06.176392Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Williams is a progressive leader from Brooklyn who has criticized the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy. He has pledged to rank Mr. Lander either first or second on his ballot.\n\nBut if Mr. Adams were to resign, Mr. Williams — who ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor — would become acting mayor. He would then likely run for a full term.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/nyregion/nyc-mayor-candidates-2025.html) tracker page maintained by the New York Times is updated before April 1, 2025 to classify Jumaane Williams as running for mayor of New York City. If that tracker page does not have Cuomo listed as Running, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. Should the webpage be offline on April 1, 2025, resolution will wait until the end of this tournament's resolutions, at which time if the page is still down the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35907, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741729438.884721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741729438.884721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15971599126088737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 3.084998515983978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9476712896751207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5095294030847528, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2762634963484665, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.18375592519948, "peer_score": 5.913842146369333, "coverage": 0.9536963180700939, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9536963180700939, "spot_peer_score": 9.98964314574232, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 75.18375592519948, "peer_archived_score": 5.913842146369333, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.98964314574232, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Williams is a progressive leader from Brooklyn who has criticized the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy. 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He would then likely run for a full term.\"" }, { "id": 35897, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-javier-milei-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-claudia-sheinbaum-on-march-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.807788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T18:50:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35331, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T18:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-30T18:54:07.661577Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Sheinbaum is at 66% as compared with Milei at 65%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Javier Melei has a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum at [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked my Metaculus on or after March 30, 2025. A tie or a lead by Sheinbaum resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23610668269969792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190556409139295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31224601647824046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.224156646299226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1564829236529564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 1.906947004393443, 0.0, 0.0, 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"name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 35323, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:09.688410Z", "open_time": "2025-03-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T20:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T20:49:29.815692Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, there is a new world record in any category (men's singles, women's singles, pairs, ice dance), for any segment, on any of the possible scores:\n\n* TES – Technical element score\n* PCS – Program component score\n* TSS – Total segment score\n* Combine Total TSS across segments.", "fine_print": "* If at least half of the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships events do not take place before April 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* In case a performance setting a new record is announced, but has not been officially verified (in case of potential disputes), it will count for the purposes of this question if it has not been cancelled as of April 7, 2025.\n* The [current world records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_scores_in_figure_skating) are presented below:\n\n| Category | Segment | Score type | Score |\n| --------------- | -------------- | ---------- | ------ |\n| Men's singles | Combined total | TSS | 335.30 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TSS | 113.97 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TES | 65.98 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | PCS | 48.47 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TSS | 227.79 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TES | 137.18 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | PCS | 97.22 |\n| Women's singles | Combined total | TSS | 272.71 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TSS | 87.52 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TES | 49.97 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | PCS | 37.56 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TSS | 185.29 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TES | 109.02 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | PCS | 76.27 |\n| Pairs | Combined total | TSS | 239.88 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TSS | 84.41 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TES | 46.04 |\n| Pairs | Short program | PCS | 38.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TSS | 157.46 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TES | 81.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | PCS | 76.99 |\n| Ice dance | Combined total | TSS | 232.32 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TSS | 93.91 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TES | 55.16 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | PCS | 39.57 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TSS | 138.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TES | 79.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | PCS | 59.70 |\n\n", "post_id": 35889, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.505, 0.495 ], "means": [ 0.44437743975517746 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3723319537601757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6159019440994773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09421835938530294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.201492446433726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.036074989500979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.2682456184822639, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2403570004362803, 0.9160279542388619, 0.3571884672884433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 5.552594877328654, "peer_score": -1.8447208455324746, "coverage": 0.9873423241906697, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873423241906697, "spot_peer_score": -7.035217695489181, "spot_baseline_score": 1.4355292977070055, "baseline_archived_score": 5.552594877328654, "peer_archived_score": -1.8447208455324746, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.035217695489181, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 1.4355292977070055 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking." }, { "id": 35782, "title": "If Metaculus launches NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, will it achieve first place in the Metaculus Cup?", "short_title": "Is NOSTRADAMUS-AI an oracle?", "url_title": "Is NOSTRADAMUS-AI an oracle?", "slug": "is-nostradamus-ai-an-oracle", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T18:18:44.923874Z", "published_at": "2025-04-01T12:07:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.126786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-01T12:07:52.493186Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-01T12:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35217, "title": "If Metaculus launches NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, will it achieve first place in the Metaculus Cup?", "created_at": "2025-03-07T18:18:44.924356Z", "open_time": "2025-04-01T12:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T21:04:40.704215Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Informed by findings from our ongoing [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), Metaculus is excited to announce its new AI forecasting system, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society). Internal testing has demonstrated that NOSTRADAMUS-AI is capable of producing forecasts that we are confident are prophetic, as the forecasts they produce are rich in metaphor and highly cryptic, two traits that we have identified as [prevalent among top forecasters](https://www.history.co.uk/articles/nostradamus-which-of-his-predictions-came-true).\n\nWhile most of the prophecies produced by NOSTRADAMUS-AI concern disasters in the distant future, we are very confident that its prophetic abilities will extend perfectly to predicting short-term questions like those found in Metaculus' [Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/), which is being relaunched soon as the Metaculus Cup.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/)\n* [When will the next total solar eclipse occur?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22068/next-total-solar-eclipse-on-earth/)", "resolution_criteria": "If Metaculus launches its new forecasting AI tool, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society), before April 10, 2025, this question will resolve as **Yes** if NOSTRADAMUS-AI wins 1st place in the upcoming Metaculus Cup.\n\nIf Metaculus does not launch NOSTRADAMUS-AI before April 10, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* All predictions made by NOSTRADAMUS-AI in the Metaculus Cup will count, including those not published in [*Les Prophéties*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Proph%C3%A9ties).\n* Please note, Metaculus' NOSTRADAMUS-AI is not to be confused with its forthcoming [NOSFERATU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ykxcdp6-2kE)-AI (Neural Omniscient System For Evaluating Risks And Tracking Undead).", "post_id": 35782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744153918.114196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.049 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744153918.114196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.049 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.951, 0.049 ], "means": [ 0.07491142554673563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.21013508678301107, 0.028664445367929763, 2.2314771222777794, 1.425826206530239, 1.3662040475181731, 2.956256932117105, 0.0, 0.7482055507411614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8419509799732325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2402124549853717 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Informed by findings from our ongoing [AI Forecasting Benchmark Series](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/), Metaculus is excited to announce its new AI forecasting system, NOSTRADAMUS-AI (Numerous Outcomes Systematically Tracked & Recorded After Determining AI Mistakes Undermining Society). Internal testing has demonstrated that NOSTRADAMUS-AI is capable of producing forecasts that we are confident are prophetic, as the forecasts they produce are rich in metaphor and highly cryptic, two traits that we have identified as [prevalent among top forecasters](https://www.history.co.uk/articles/nostradamus-which-of-his-predictions-came-true).\n\nWhile most of the prophecies produced by NOSTRADAMUS-AI concern disasters in the distant future, we are very confident that its prophetic abilities will extend perfectly to predicting short-term questions like those found in Metaculus' [Quarterly Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/quarterly-cup/), which is being relaunched soon as the Metaculus Cup.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n* [When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/)\n* [When will the next total solar eclipse occur?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22068/next-total-solar-eclipse-on-earth/)" }, { "id": 35780, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "slug": "will-pepfar-funding-be-resumed-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160144Z", "published_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229946Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.301169Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229944Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35215, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160585Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T00:40:32.013780Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that funding for the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is frozen ([NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html), [JIAS](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11851316/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/05/congress/graham-warns-trumps-budget-pick-about-going-too-far-with-funding-freeze-00213662)) at the time of this question, has resumed. If a partial resumption takes place, this question will resolve as **Yes** PEPFAR's funding levels are at least 50% of pre-pause funding.", "fine_print": "An announcement that funding *will* resume will only resolve this question if the date of the resumption is before April 7, 2025 and no credible sources as of that date suggest that funding remains paused. ", "post_id": 35780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743460142.916306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743460142.916306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0706542671634892 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.871989184175152, 4.214391638316472, 0.9696255532336461, 0.5976581519938668, 0.1816249793226597, 0.9557446276194967, 0.0, 0.5263190413369503, 0.07201112454919256, 0.04978706836786394, 0.04048156063810314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19892345174351658, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9307200270794798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07982935021231018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.4851303449063, "peer_score": 5.355719768283071, "coverage": 0.9998736614443203, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998736614443203, "spot_peer_score": -1.1850772514592418, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 79.4851303449063, "peer_archived_score": 5.355719768283071, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1850772514592418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 402, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed." }, { "id": 35769, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "Israel resumes aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Israel resumes aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "slug": "israel-resumes-aid-into-gaza-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-06T03:10:42.990365Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T01:33:55.696093Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.629631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T01:33:55.696091Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35210, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-06T03:10:42.990712Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T00:43:05.574401Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, humanitarian aid into Gaza has resumed, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743410115.601021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743410115.601021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025808830225270998 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.9151330192328135, 4.92039521102808, 1.652172431865421, 0.9607488541206908, 1.1959559912160067, 0.0797787163600839, 0.015216836922897737, 0.37381893986710796, 0.02439891007171052, 0.007683132160872665, 0.011752428427110738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004715380590217308, 0.05032766519653908, 0.5296608745347693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012864637029042109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006584248247179228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10338731650712608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.83662336069374, "peer_score": 12.602645573395172, "coverage": 0.9999240086389569, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999240086389569, "spot_peer_score": 12.266318119432604, "spot_baseline_score": 35.61438102252753, "baseline_archived_score": 70.83662336069374, "peer_archived_score": 12.602645573395172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.266318119432604, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 35.61438102252753 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict." }, { "id": 35764, "title": "Will Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "short_title": "\"The Rock\" is the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "url_title": "\"The Rock\" is the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "slug": "the-rock-is-the-highest-paid-actor-in-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-05T02:10:16.650894Z", "published_at": "2025-03-05T22:47:07.043775Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.890278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-05T22:47:07.043773Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-06T22:46:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35208, "title": "Will Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-05T02:10:16.651254Z", "open_time": "2025-03-06T22:46:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-10T21:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-10T21:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson has now been the highest paid actor in the following years: [2016](https://www.forbes.com/actors/#28a1c26b40fe), [2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2019/08/21/the-highest-paid-actors-2019-dwayne-johnson-bradley-cooper-and-chris-hemsworth/), [2020](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/08/11/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2020-dwayne-johnson-ryan-reynolds/#7084b268112b), 2021, [2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2022/02/09/the-highest-paid-entertainers-2022/), and [2024](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattcraig/2025/02/28/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2024/). \n\nAs of this writing, there is one film set to be released in 2025 in which \"The Rock\" appears:\n\n* [The Smashing Machine](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11214558/). \"The story of mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr.\" Along with The Rock, it stars Emily Blunt and is directed by Benny Sadfie.\n\nThere are a number of movies in varying states of readiness including two in pre-production ([Fast X: Part 2](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27550022/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_9); [Untitled Fast & Furious Film](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27920268/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_8)) and two in production ([A live action version of Moana](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27419466/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_2); [Big Trouble Little China](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4728328/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_5))", "resolution_criteria": "* **Yes:** If Dwayne Johnson ranks as the highest-paid actor on Forbes' highest-paid actors of 2025 list.\n* **No:** If another actor holds the top position.", "fine_print": "If Forbes does not publish the list for 2025 before January 1, 2027, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 35764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755602350.885408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755602350.885408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20194785833283796 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson has now been the highest paid actor in the following years: [2016](https://www.forbes.com/actors/#28a1c26b40fe), [2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2019/08/21/the-highest-paid-actors-2019-dwayne-johnson-bradley-cooper-and-chris-hemsworth/), [2020](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/08/11/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2020-dwayne-johnson-ryan-reynolds/#7084b268112b), 2021, [2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2022/02/09/the-highest-paid-entertainers-2022/), and [2024](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattcraig/2025/02/28/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2024/). \n\nAs of this writing, there is one film set to be released in 2025 in which \"The Rock\" appears:\n\n* [The Smashing Machine](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11214558/). \"The story of mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr.\" Along with The Rock, it stars Emily Blunt and is directed by Benny Sadfie.\n\nThere are a number of movies in varying states of readiness including two in pre-production ([Fast X: Part 2](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27550022/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_9); [Untitled Fast & Furious Film](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27920268/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_8)) and two in production ([A live action version of Moana](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27419466/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_2); [Big Trouble Little China](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4728328/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_5))" }, { "id": 35760, "title": "Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?", "short_title": "Dem House before 2027?", "url_title": "Dem House before 2027?", "slug": "dem-house-before-2027", "author_id": 265213, "author_username": "ChastityQM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-04T17:52:57.998445Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T14:18:35.216213Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.198733Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T14:18:35.216211Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-11T14:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35205, "title": "Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-03-04T17:52:57.998863Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T14:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T14:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T14:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n\nOn November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n\nIf the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.", "post_id": 35760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756140688.75697, "end_time": 1758436149.401, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756140688.75697, "end_time": 1758436149.401, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.18047502525701195 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.20308529557836363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 1.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4919803864815192, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n\nOn November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections." }, { "id": 35744, "title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel?", "url_title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel?", "slug": "will-wti-crude-oil-drop-below-65-per-barrel", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "Russell-viper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-03T11:33:15.565902Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T15:29:17.502961Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.852398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T15:29:17.502959Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T15:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35191, "title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-03T11:33:15.566247Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T15:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-16T15:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-16T15:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-10T22:07:07.993655Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a key benchmark for global oil prices, primarily sourced from U.S. oil fields, particularly in Texas. Known for its high quality and low sulfur content, WTI is often used as a pricing standard for oil traded in North America. Its price is influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, production policies of major oil producers and broader economic conditions. WTI is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and serves as a key reference point for energy markets worldwide.\n\nOil prices are influenced by various factors, with OPEC and non-OPEC members playing a significant role. However, the U.S. also has a major impact on price movements. Given Trump's \"drill, baby, drill\" stance, a slowing U.S. economy, and the uncertainty caused by tariffs, these factors could further shape the market dynamics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/) closes below \\$65.00 for five consecutive trading days after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744301115.747771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744301115.747771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9682958160188709 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 4.495451738190146 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.034950685311054, "peer_score": 5.425913304272885, "coverage": 0.3706501282485402, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9923391756772156, "spot_peer_score": 18.96824711940008, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756148, "baseline_archived_score": 14.034950685311054, "peer_archived_score": 5.425913304272885, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.96824711940008, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a key benchmark for global oil prices, primarily sourced from U.S. oil fields, particularly in Texas. Known for its high quality and low sulfur content, WTI is often used as a pricing standard for oil traded in North America. Its price is influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, production policies of major oil producers and broader economic conditions. WTI is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and serves as a key reference point for energy markets worldwide.\n\nOil prices are influenced by various factors, with OPEC and non-OPEC members playing a significant role. However, the U.S. also has a major impact on price movements. Given Trump's \"drill, baby, drill\" stance, a slowing U.S. economy, and the uncertainty caused by tariffs, these factors could further shape the market dynamics." }, { "id": 35733, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "short_title": "New record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "url_title": "New record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "slug": "new-record-in-the-2025-world-figure-skating-championships", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-03T02:01:37.157569Z", "published_at": "2025-03-03T03:07:07.125275Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.983239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-03T03:07:07.125273Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T12:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 35189, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "created_at": "2025-03-03T02:01:37.157939Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T12:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T12:53:24.571968Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, there is a new world record in any category (men's singles, women's singles, pairs, ice dance), for any segment, on any of the possible scores:\n\n* TES – Technical element score\n* PCS – Program component score\n* TSS – Total segment score\n* Combine Total TSS across segments.", "fine_print": "* If at least half of the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships events do not take place before April 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* In case a performance setting a new record is announced, but has not been officially verified (in case of potential disputes), it will count for the purposes of this question if it has not been cancelled as of April 7, 2025.\n* The [current world records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_scores_in_figure_skating) are presented below:\n\n| Category | Segment | Score type | Score |\n| --------------- | -------------- | ---------- | ------ |\n| Men's singles | Combined total | TSS | 335.30 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TSS | 113.97 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TES | 65.98 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | PCS | 48.47 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TSS | 227.79 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TES | 137.18 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | PCS | 97.22 |\n| Women's singles | Combined total | TSS | 272.71 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TSS | 87.52 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TES | 49.97 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | PCS | 37.56 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TSS | 185.29 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TES | 109.02 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | PCS | 76.27 |\n| Pairs | Combined total | TSS | 239.88 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TSS | 84.41 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TES | 46.04 |\n| Pairs | Short program | PCS | 38.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TSS | 157.46 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TES | 81.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | PCS | 76.99 |\n| Ice dance | Combined total | TSS | 232.32 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TSS | 93.91 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TES | 55.16 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | PCS | 39.57 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TSS | 138.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TES | 79.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | PCS | 59.70 |\n\n", "post_id": 35733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742880937.882511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": 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The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. 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Instead, Trump criticised Zelenskyy for lacking gratitude for US aid and questioned his approach to the war, while Zelenskyy insisted on security guarantees from the US and emphasised Russia's role as the aggressor in the war.\n\nThe unresolved meeting left US support for Ukraine uncertain, with Zelenskyy not signing the deal before departing from the White House. Various European leaders voiced support for Ukraine, Keir Starmer [insisted](https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-leaders-pledge-increase-defense-spending-nato-mark-rutte-keir-starmer-london-summit/) that any peace plan must have US' backing. A few days after leaving the Oval Office, [Zelenskyy said](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j0ggm3mdwo) that he would still be willing to sign a deal on rare earth minerals.\n\nDuring his 2024 campaign, Trump [promised](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/19/us/politics/trump-promise-ending-ukraine-war.html) to end the Russia-Ukraine war early in his presidency, often suggesting he could broker peace through direct talks with Moscow, a stance he framed as pragmatic and cost-saving for the US.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Donald Trump after March 3 and before April 7, 2025.", "fine_print": "* The meeting has to be in person. \n* The overall duration of the meeting does not matter, as long as Trump and Zelenskyy speak directly to each other for at least one minute, continuously.", "post_id": 35732, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743414829.291436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743414829.291436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05665282573763901 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.510155832011818, 1.259263154418858, 2.0221920717413, 2.008234272795713, 4.082024231715874, 2.383576960374339, 0.7836303072088828, 0.668919576193915, 0.04429808642068359, 0.34478938726246294, 0.40027157291296933, 0.16358367830632, 0.0646516219078255, 0.0077289636711357825, 0.5081334076935602, 0.8642481073057953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022556935951370632, 0.5340203409353508, 0.053636441777860235, 0.00010828654134764054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011566338489480153, 0.08745501623158428, 0.05710974615261928, 0.0, 0.00045259954456378565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024712452213022415, 0.0, 0.000270016043560814, 0.00014156090758466822, 0.03640875337444845, 0.0, 0.00032413405865910005, 0.007185620171657126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01123917500530291, 0.0, 0.005483968607338952, 0.0013332445395559907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19335333087329795, 0.0016771748530350252, 0.0, 0.004582296826085957, 0.0, 0.00022189844218063637, 0.0025701243253208124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033642369299134115, 0.00017925296926214583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0, 0.004179282557804217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004380744254208987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008078589314896494, 0.009338847801289064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008072979223474218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018730169681004513, 0.0, 0.0055075364232430755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019553963805070133 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.787694086079888, "peer_score": 18.956258104402547, "coverage": 0.9999645641445121, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999645641445121, "spot_peer_score": 15.844014217849136, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 19.787694086079888, "peer_archived_score": 18.956258104402547, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.844014217849136, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 865, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Relations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump broke down after a [tense Oval Office meeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2erwgwy8vgo) on February 28 ([video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6qFzWaaZ_o)) The discussion was meant to seal a deal granting the US access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals in exchange for continued support against Russia. 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