Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=940
{ "count": 6301, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=920", "results": [ { "id": 37682, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:53:27.951188Z", "published_at": "2025-05-12T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.538745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37035, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:53:27.951188Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T14:03:13.588674Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "JP Morgan: [Following the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts, what could its next move be?](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\r\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 37682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747234329.583903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.082 ], "centers": [ 0.093 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747234329.583903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.082 ], "centers": [ 0.093 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.907, 0.093 ], "means": [ 0.08650021521263528 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.89027149355079, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4467943994497405, 1.0, 1.157365810413651, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.75453620882459, "peer_score": -0.0049153611218051285, "coverage": 0.996148506699668, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996148506699668, "spot_peer_score": -0.5307218655249875, "spot_baseline_score": 85.91744558664355, "baseline_archived_score": 84.75453620882459, "peer_archived_score": -0.0049153611218051285, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5307218655249875, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 85.91744558664355 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "JP Morgan: [Following the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts, what could its next move be?](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)" }, { "id": 37678, "title": "Will the NFL ban the \"Tush-Push\" before June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-nfl-ban-the-tush-push-before-june-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:53:27.624698Z", "published_at": "2025-05-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.007374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T13:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37031, "title": "Will the NFL ban the \"Tush-Push\" before June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:53:27.624698Z", "open_time": "2025-05-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T13:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T13:41:24.843786Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-13T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ESPN: [Vote on tush push ban tabled by NFL owners for more discussion](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44490292/sources-tush-push-ban-vote-tabled-nfl-owners) | CBS Sports: [Expansive 'Tush Push' ban could have strong support at NFL's next owners meeting, per report](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/expansive-tush-push-ban-could-have-strong-support-at-nfls-next-owners-meeting-per-report/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Football League officially approves or announces a rule restricting the quarterback sneak known as the [Tush-Push](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarterback_sneak#Tush_push) before June 1, 2025. If there are no reports of this occurring before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747094050.779411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747094050.779411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.32608383524511764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0243157823203375, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5520276189696817, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.511114780416033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.069480199438416, "peer_score": 2.5735344071628656, "coverage": 0.949789918894238, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.949789918894238, "spot_peer_score": 7.229616339287067, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 41.069480199438416, "peer_archived_score": 2.5735344071628656, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.229616339287067, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ESPN: [Vote on tush push ban tabled by NFL owners for more discussion](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44490292/sources-tush-push-ban-vote-tabled-nfl-owners) | CBS Sports: [Expansive 'Tush Push' ban could have strong support at NFL's next owners meeting, per report](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/expansive-tush-push-ban-could-have-strong-support-at-nfls-next-owners-meeting-per-report/)" }, { "id": 37664, "title": "Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-claude-4-be-available-to-the-general-public-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.601532Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.233488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37017, "title": "Will Claude 4 be available to the general public before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.601532Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:06:09.524028Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PromptLayer: [Everything we know: Claude 4](https://blog.promptlayer.com/claude-4/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a member of the general public can access Anthropic's Claude 4 model without first joining a waitlist or participating in an early access or testing phase. If Anthropic does not release Claude 4 before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), including that it may rely on the ability of Metaculus employees to access Claude 4. \"Access\" may be via API, the Anthropic website, or any other method that allows interaction with Claude 4. Models that do not include both \"Claude\" and \"4\" in the name will not be considered for resolution of this question.", "post_id": 37664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747423824.233848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29702052253190153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747423824.233848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29702052253190153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7029794774680984, 0.29702052253190153 ], "means": [ 0.29956351537230747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07812423256640215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530671002920095, 0.7415185859076825, 0.17672342147353706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12385827512205734, 2.7928424338082993, 0.3017051033688969, 0.0, 0.02846422899932325, 0.5956380251215266, 0.6937795430318277, 0.0, 0.062047323239435744, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3138037260595818, 0.0, 0.04840306567371073, 0.1893492622778734, 0.7973400546120943, 2.427648895431712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.893587478567622, 0.0, 1.0521167316594773, 0.0, 0.5612035277678419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16482953151796573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7527531912644363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019583721280263125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454658663642979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32173655062061474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004802010308214308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24797248793215781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -89.99990849667122, "peer_score": 15.003461363358673, "coverage": 0.9846211597323418, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9846211597323418, "spot_peer_score": 26.65916942593951, "spot_baseline_score": -75.13654778946263, "baseline_archived_score": -89.99990849667122, "peer_archived_score": 15.003461363358673, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.65916942593951, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -75.13654778946263 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PromptLayer: [Everything we know: Claude 4](https://blog.promptlayer.com/claude-4/)" }, { "id": 37662, "title": "Will the Artemis Accords have 55 signatories on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-artemis-accords-have-55-signatories-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.439471Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.650363Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T13:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37015, "title": "Will the Artemis Accords have 55 signatories on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.439471Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-17T13:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-17T13:26:48.937758Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025. There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Artemis Accords has 55 (or more) signatories on July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747409078.568049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.906 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747409078.568049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.906 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9103407342149563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03823528481312164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21189784639931528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38587826502743616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025379543753844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949821644089254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6665693504079824, 0.0, 1.202444939814294, 0.0, 0.46428797296367197, 3.0967824785810416, 0.1601313494724224, 1.7451413723818785, 1.670460170322535, 3.310290554066712 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025. There are 54 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)" }, { "id": 37661, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Bangladesh as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starlinks-website-show-bangladesh-as-a-country-with-starlink-availability-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.433514Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.061913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:08:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37014, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Bangladesh as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.433514Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:09:09.534744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bangladeshi leader gives final approval to Musk's Starlink service](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/bangladeshi-leader-gives-final-approval-to-musks-starlink-service/3551404)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Bangladesh listed as \"Available.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37661, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747402165.384762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8337385615837372 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747402165.384762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8337385615837372 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.6808102512650597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6299942137646893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15134482788356746, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1763580588258709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1753565934797943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09851350307208126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36269734845126494, 0.12174039221355969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.54245772238747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5917455708473539, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2694962595153072, 0.0, 2.543101299347381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 2.2406347822035153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29536772888196083, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.8433303443076081, 0.0, 2.8703582345396814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18691676533295776, 0.09260560128021222, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.4385687530308, "peer_score": 6.457104795177711, "coverage": 0.9847666752669547, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847666752669547, "spot_peer_score": 11.550107614749875, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 51.4385687530308, "peer_archived_score": 6.457104795177711, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.550107614749875, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bangladeshi leader gives final approval to Musk's Starlink service](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/bangladeshi-leader-gives-final-approval-to-musks-starlink-service/3551404)" }, { "id": 37660, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Sri Lanka as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starlinks-website-show-sri-lanka-as-a-country-with-starlink-availability-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.427051Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.176359Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37013, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Sri Lanka as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.427051Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:38:03.652855Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Musk's Starlink wins Sri Lanka licence](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/sri-lanka-regulator-grants-licence-musks-starlink-satellite-broadband-2024-08-13/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Sri Lanka listed as \"Available.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747394149.17499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5708308712741219 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747394149.17499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5708308712741219 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.38500566197068864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.17433684005092911, 0.2945916871499916, 0.0, 0.38637747064730565, 0.0, 0.9841900066137412, 1.8170073256458465, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7194907024100521, 0.6299942137646893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984542232742985, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7614599873772616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701716540950928, 0.0, 0.8583622211939492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36326501245616427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.12174039221355969, 0.7945896025359167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9768026878585723, 0.0, 0.2453965896845887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17424616195311898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15134482788356746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.049087968039146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.98443718797847, "peer_score": 16.27383008352634, "coverage": 0.9864107095864084, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864107095864084, "spot_peer_score": 14.339577965572191, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 41.98443718797847, "peer_archived_score": 16.27383008352634, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.339577965572191, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Musk's Starlink wins Sri Lanka licence](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/sri-lanka-regulator-grants-licence-musks-starlink-satellite-broadband-2024-08-13/)" }, { "id": 37659, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker classify at least 120 objectives as \"Done\" on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-classify-at-least-120-objectives-as-done-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.419781Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.344525Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37012, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker classify at least 120 objectives as \"Done\" on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.419781Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:16:34.117184Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Project 2025 Tracker](https://www.project2025.observer/) has ≥120 Objectives classified as Done when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If it is less than 120, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37659, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747389472.955659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6675 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747389472.955659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6675 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5249504453198338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0747363418034979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17113520990820957, 0.0, 0.4068703447359997, 0.11510138539572264, 0.0, 0.06301146529853574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.98866377413396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9532415283300042, 0.0, 0.7527531912644363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03522811912126931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.5956380251215266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6319212255249617, 0.01267748152854965, 0.0, 0.5052972695302009, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0509994932565414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5543338432939913, 0.46653463488686264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8347789459729599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938890965591569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48182783372058646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.12385827512205734, 0.1893492622778734, 0.41272778883086586, 0.0, 0.14309136881469264, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0, 0.44032882335882917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -31.470233920235422, "peer_score": 0.04385234594218694, "coverage": 0.984016026523378, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.984016026523378, "spot_peer_score": 4.792251970204389, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": -31.470233920235422, "peer_archived_score": 0.04385234594218694, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.792251970204389, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/)." }, { "id": 37658, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.265181Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.007916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37011, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.265181Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T13:47:30.420427Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747380625.32701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747380625.32701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49696357159339405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7039703721595165, 0.0, 0.20027086012739792, 0.7961717265997972, 0.0, 0.9451292853160638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2314121252723536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.23776195769181624, 0.0, 0.12174039221355969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9138592972619395, 0.7513609248868253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7814128224706108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2555082967391078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.8929452323661959, 0.6265827510635916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8319244724854739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.504345474450046, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.8280737037468926, 0.0, 0.526247751814955, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 1.3667161403097778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1444949110387495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9603166174509983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2453965896845887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.278667472122038, "peer_score": 9.672497682981266, "coverage": 0.9847748593158192, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9847748593158192, "spot_peer_score": 23.436550304336382, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -21.278667472122038, "peer_archived_score": 9.672497682981266, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.436550304336382, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)" }, { "id": 37657, "title": "Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-any-human-cases-of-the-novel-coronavirus-hku5-cov-2-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.260241Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.154883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37010, "title": "Will there be any human cases of the novel coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.260241Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T23:01:04.650905Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Discovery of HKU5-CoV-2, a Novel Coronavirus in China](https://assure-test.com/discovery-of-hku5-cov-2-a-novel-coronavirus-in-china/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, there are any human cases reported anywhere globally of HKU5-CoV-2.", "fine_print": "Question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), especially the World Health Organization or US Centers for Disease Control.", "post_id": 37657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747372762.918363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747372762.918363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11714605270731054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.029005835526161147, 1.9209085465946512, 0.668452528291535, 2.5948938154524512, 0.09527191926620367, 1.0395168299056323, 0.5239242875781319, 0.0, 3.46360451883801, 0.8922909885556951, 0.5386906352747476, 0.1591992489172443, 0.7949821644089254, 1.4725199442712507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3654842894979201, 0.0, 0.7034565625303675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003836742346679584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8434734722690038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058909031357943696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.70567779595399, "peer_score": 4.261472622251114, "coverage": 0.9901141968038347, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9901141968038347, "spot_peer_score": 4.760742770921397, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 83.70567779595399, "peer_archived_score": 4.261472622251114, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.760742770921397, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Discovery of HKU5-CoV-2, a Novel Coronavirus in China](https://assure-test.com/discovery-of-hku5-cov-2-a-novel-coronavirus-in-china/)" }, { "id": 37656, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of stopping funding for NPR and PBS marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-spreadsheet-have-the-objective-of-stopping-funding-for-npr-and-pbs-marked-as-complete-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.255334Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.633476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37009, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of stopping funding for NPR and PBS marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.255334Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T00:02:43.537348Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to \"stop funding for NPR and PBS\" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as \"in progress\") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747366859.895433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.539 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747366859.895433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.539 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3342142979759786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0302471096405659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8625601698083587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9363168747275658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8064002153301801, 0.0, 2.956277665099142, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5526857372072402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7946418835355168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4247188008784221, 0.7513609248868253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5590197058964325, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 0.005819522702150025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41139789546716327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41471088394240785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2655358154530774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6305618777695887, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10487932907659522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3264929227525474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.613698675835884, "peer_score": 16.166646075750272, "coverage": 0.9561881920695305, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9561881920695305, "spot_peer_score": 19.133467960030632, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 42.613698675835884, "peer_archived_score": 16.166646075750272, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.133467960030632, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/)." }, { "id": 37655, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-announce-a-presidential-election-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.250046Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.680801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37008, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.250046Z", "open_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T00:04:48.807759Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a specific date on which a presidential election will be held is officially announced by the government of Ukraine or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before that date, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before July 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 37655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747360751.331277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747360751.331277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17601199775074533 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4008021578256057, 0.0, 0.402883720620692, 0.6499145613960223, 1.9475511929567046, 0.7912793091199047, 0.028403737957569904, 0.00047118769608376065, 0.5849577636717652, 2.5538962159452905, 0.48529413660216764, 0.03680426772194427, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4620878282340115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7099633254922297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5828762281438875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9330291227337543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04145990502278528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007702400494954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7021345863207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5097182237120849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.68540015786282, "peer_score": 4.723487693515371, "coverage": 0.9804246780607437, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9804246780607437, "spot_peer_score": 3.5553294333809635, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 78.68540015786282, "peer_archived_score": 4.723487693515371, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5553294333809635, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 37654, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of breaking up NOAA marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-spreadsheet-have-the-objective-of-breaking-up-noaa-marked-as-complete-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.244486Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.722879Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T00:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37007, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of breaking up NOAA marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.244486Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T00:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T00:05:21.751487Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to \"break up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as \"in progress\") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37654, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747352277.7339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747352277.7339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1606498573932155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09527191926620367, 0.1601313494724224, 2.832323551116078, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3978734858099866, 0.21189784639931528, 0.3164420601480945, 0.7949821644089254, 0.18445819292609114, 2.8635101176773863, 0.5914743248163015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7499437156931522, 2.053341979825348, 0.02636788613356748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14756323711980565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.002229609774453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3179385392607552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2775021963486394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008253441898962907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005373855860101914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010161794999997649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.8111379678279, "peer_score": 6.2691073392987775, "coverage": 0.9865734038750329, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865734038750329, "spot_peer_score": 5.495980558454668, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 75.8111379678279, "peer_archived_score": 6.2691073392987775, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.495980558454668, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/)." }, { "id": 37652, "title": "Will Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-canadian-prime-minister-mark-carney-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-us-president-donald-trump-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.082515Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.500158Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37005, "title": "Will Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney have a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.082515Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:16:07.434947Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Mark Carney has a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If this not the case (including due to a tie), this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37652, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747330790.467897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747330790.467897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6329893076058344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06943620487934168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0814956572043637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4927652120469003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19776846219557181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.477577033330434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21189784639931528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949821644089254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7499437156931522, 0.0, 0.007021506238153396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6653826794441087, 0.0, 0.3164420601480945, 0.0, 0.5567997521513375, 2.9982720032053174, 0.707173321785911, 0.3376335396423815, 0.17496016298678901, 0.0, 0.6853420158005573, 0.4352821374375108, 0.6824707983796092, 0.0, 0.0, 3.515282310041672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003969259310572884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.009016894986413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.294249191465155, "peer_score": 12.999144757033669, "coverage": 0.985264220005936, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985264220005936, "spot_peer_score": 13.071446234362769, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.294249191465155, "peer_archived_score": 12.999144757033669, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.071446234362769, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"" }, { "id": 37649, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Chad as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starlinks-website-show-chad-as-a-country-with-starlink-availability-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.066352Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.395872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37002, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Chad as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:35.066352Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:16:52.889839Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX’s Starlink Secures License to Operate in Chad](https://spaceinafrica.com/2024/11/12/spacexs-starlink-secures-license-to-operate-in-chad/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Chad listed as \"Available.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37649, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747309000.46392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.437 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747309000.46392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.437 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.563, 0.437 ], "means": [ 0.5287528960137253 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03010603556612766, 0.18691676533295776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44108506645224893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.8290772510595961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0587286839846022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9076987558959939, 0.2990786581517114, 0.41139789546716327, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9032856483051697, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.6299942137646893, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965073615016385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9191606006781912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12174039221355969, 0.0, 1.1354658657831964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4379619320621434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.406198384573776, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27840579385124326, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.0, 1.082406634082554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9010510556763924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.293264339544352, "peer_score": 24.4849357327749, "coverage": 0.9842680476440323, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9842680476440323, "spot_peer_score": 29.584355552144785, "spot_baseline_score": 17.120682741814242, "baseline_archived_score": 10.293264339544352, "peer_archived_score": 24.4849357327749, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.584355552144785, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 17.120682741814242 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX’s Starlink Secures License to Operate in Chad](https://spaceinafrica.com/2024/11/12/spacexs-starlink-secures-license-to-operate-in-chad/)" }, { "id": 37648, "title": "Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-and-iran-announce-a-new-nuclear-deal-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.899707Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.124361Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37001, "title": "Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.899707Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:16:24.708327Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israeli media (Hebrew): [Senior ministers were informed: There is a high chance that the US and Iran will reach an agreement](https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/895178/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US and Iran sign or announce an agreement with respect to Iran's nuclear program.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37648, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747302034.477094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.556 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747302034.477094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.556 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40233507614305347 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 1.6841901071395697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 0.014013274287363407, 0.0, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2441762166297083, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7680145629124415, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45240615078059554, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 1.8059747370594028, 0.0, 0.03300920416665456, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 1.014689734117931, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6683702162141048, 0.8957105333733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12567525617236178, 0.2622754525086275, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3966171099322757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24641634311345387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.546692972659255, "peer_score": 6.381396360859141, "coverage": 0.9836931997206477, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9836931997206477, "spot_peer_score": 6.10982923261707, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 26.546692972659255, "peer_archived_score": 6.381396360859141, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.10982923261707, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israeli media (Hebrew): [Senior ministers were informed: There is a high chance that the US and Iran will reach an agreement](https://www.kan.org.il/content/kan-news/politic/895178/)" }, { "id": 37646, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Somalia as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starlinks-website-show-somalia-as-a-country-with-starlink-availability-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.889619Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.411332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T00:08:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36999, "title": "Will Starlink's website show Somalia as a country with Starlink availability before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.889619Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T00:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T00:08:27.037347Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Musk announces Starlink license for Somalia](https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Musk_announces_Starlink_license_for_Somalia_999.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the [Starlink Availability Map](https://www.starlink.com/us/map) has anywhere in Somalia listed as \"Available.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747286315.317996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747286315.317996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7289475491819588 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6219464607129316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34881053381958116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1372869511932286, 0.35187441874087827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10974745465098089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1130965568839125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596432114486756, 0.0, 0.2347694085184629, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4959977695140576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04456177592918514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.542507699501189, 0.8902523718939138, 0.94962619997186, 0.0, 0.8394799688108832, 1.1940374614501694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9038823282041876, 0.0, 0.773507118767869, 0.7912793091199047, 0.0, 1.2816442766738119, 0.1529072034917331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09772262266400288, 0.0, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4459390733686144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -101.39658073314548, "peer_score": 1.529184451420215, "coverage": 0.9834353654252157, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9834353654252157, "spot_peer_score": 5.134129980014496, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -101.39658073314548, "peer_archived_score": 1.529184451420215, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.134129980014496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Musk announces Starlink license for Somalia](https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Musk_announces_Starlink_license_for_Somalia_999.html)" }, { "id": 37645, "title": "Will Serbia announce a general election before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-serbia-announce-a-general-election-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.884530Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.175662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36998, "title": "Will Serbia announce a general election before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.884530Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:15:48.044281Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Serbia could face snap elections as PM’s resignation confirmed](https://tvpworld.com/85681783/serbia-could-face-snap-elections-as-pms-resignation-confirmed-)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a specific date on which a general election will be held is officially announced by the government of Serbia or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before July 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 37645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747280172.818286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747280172.818286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3147061786751146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7934616342162186, 0.009207092318651734, 0.5871675207951845, 0.0, 2.388948324165488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3898182983901344, 0.40351233925798374, 0.0045112856628413515, 0.0, 1.1951098795330766, 1.9793561492373515, 0.0, 0.43007743157759487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9583413920965058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6402155095407591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.232767466267187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786907671175604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8909449659417962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05575177713795103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038660567195962676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14435670794403951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0015311596192422, 0.5516687158821565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2720962540814778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.17707192656185, "peer_score": 10.343329332634696, "coverage": 0.9741438102722167, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9741438102722167, "spot_peer_score": 11.799928811389794, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 59.17707192656185, "peer_archived_score": 10.343329332634696, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.799928811389794, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Serbia could face snap elections as PM’s resignation confirmed](https://tvpworld.com/85681783/serbia-could-face-snap-elections-as-pms-resignation-confirmed-)" }, { "id": 37644, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-anthropic-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.878969Z", "published_at": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.716081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36997, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.878969Z", "open_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:15:34.752115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding talks, Anthropic [floated](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-rival-anthropic-has-floated-40-billion-valuation-in-early-talks-about-new-funding) a valuation of $40 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://www.anthropic.com/news) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747274337.313036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09119999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747274337.313036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09119999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15238658361486246 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.462619252575929, 0.8973496642656426, 0.6202447516587979, 0.0011005415108165126, 1.684107768917197, 0.04134138687397962, 0.4801032618269796, 1.6772307550908452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4502118393382578, 0.0, 5.717879896287823, 0.17175714249032537, 0.0, 0.12206891471102149, 0.39525243610674604, 1.3901999694699838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02418083526076148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8383356021688919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.03743383695392, "peer_score": 1.8841405887453169, "coverage": 0.9833493825130993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9833493825130993, "spot_peer_score": 1.6691216125599841, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 76.03743383695392, "peer_archived_score": 1.8841405887453169, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6691216125599841, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding talks, Anthropic [floated](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-rival-anthropic-has-floated-40-billion-valuation-in-early-talks-about-new-funding) a valuation of $40 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet." }, { "id": 37643, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of terminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-project-2025-tracker-spreadsheet-have-the-objective-of-terminating-the-public-service-loan-forgiveness-program-marked-as-complete-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.584049Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.453762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36996, "title": "Will the Project 2025 Tracker spreadsheet have the objective of terminating the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program marked as complete before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.584049Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:58:41.312863Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Project 2025 objective to \"terminate the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program\" is marked as complete according to [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QGG6wNHna-1tt91yXNkOauAJJ7snobFjfEnmxlmzhl4/edit?gid=0#gid=0) before July 1, 2025. If it is anything other than complete (such as \"in progress\") when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37643, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747265737.022597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.13699999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747265737.022597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.13699999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.863, 0.13699999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.14222610396399335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.09527191926620367, 0.3382150877035181, 0.17192566867158657, 2.2395661434148337, 0.0, 0.9810024059330597, 0.9076785041559985, 0.6280342341719295, 1.6453717421781553, 0.7949821644089254, 0.15453103897242904, 0.2775021963486394, 0.5914743248163015, 3.9420161397128144, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1244865144068583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6328433493755361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.189980494573878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3376335396423815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7499437156931522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688961938503294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006006204798844153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016912774913815877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00797247044402181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.42712746041049, "peer_score": 6.687613388834595, "coverage": 0.9845457549889882, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9845457549889882, "spot_peer_score": 6.990556819281185, "spot_baseline_score": 78.74324645168679, "baseline_archived_score": 76.42712746041049, "peer_archived_score": 6.687613388834595, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.990556819281185, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.74324645168679 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, the objective was marked as \"in progress.\" The 2025 Tracker is a project of the Keep_Track subreddit and is explained [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Keep_Track/comments/1ii7tbr/project_2025_tracker_is_now_live/)." }, { "id": 37642, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.579075Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.294448Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36995, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.579075Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T14:03:26.421233Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "JP Morgan: [Following the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts, what could its next move be?](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\r\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 37642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747258228.132739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747258228.132739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2616629936521599 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6683702162141048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6299942137646893, 0.46572683269050547, 1.4140549438151586, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 1.944656119656276, 0.9269624031054001, 0.2622754525086275, 0.9451292853160638, 0.17433684005092911, 2.190686033966985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1056531841060364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6032008993192431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9787842710420501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41139789546716327, 0.8929452323661959, 0.18359469230659647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0900442809667568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38637747064730565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.34319437791638, "peer_score": 10.290072071905497, "coverage": 0.985751353336705, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985751353336705, "spot_peer_score": 10.70914094117249, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 66.34319437791638, "peer_archived_score": 10.290072071905497, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.70914094117249, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "JP Morgan: [Following the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts, what could its next move be?](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts)" } ] }