Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=960
{ "count": 6301, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=980", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=940", "results": [ { "id": 37641, "title": "Will Circle be publicly-traded before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-circle-be-publicly-traded-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.574037Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.196048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36994, "title": "Will Circle be publicly-traded before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.574037Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T23:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T23:10:58.464198Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forbes: [The Circle IPO Solidifies 2025 As The Year Of Stablecoins](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/04/04/the-circle-ipo-solidifies-2025-as-the-year-of-stablecoin/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if shares of Circle Internet Group, Inc. are publicly traded on New York Stock Exchange (the \"NYSE\") before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747250412.215572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3995 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747250412.215572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3995 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6054147634418174 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12620451945365418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5784883396548001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1601313494724224, 0.45914685198827687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9204789183152604, 0.06399192752308502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4213416413416957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4927652120469003, 0.8922909885556951, 0.11114525154455163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.3376335396423815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6086525271644595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8688086012170269, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.6665693504079824, 0.19776846219557181, 2.3284394318736696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0809371796695346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949821644089254, 0.44718992761171367, 0.2775021963486394, 0.029005835526161147, 0.5719482704902427, 0.9447863337210879, 1.5914743248163015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0668510697108446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.633697538863004, "peer_score": 27.125430775567352, "coverage": 0.9866189126504794, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866189126504794, "spot_peer_score": 27.283821574474054, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 34.633697538863004, "peer_archived_score": 27.125430775567352, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.283821574474054, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forbes: [The Circle IPO Solidifies 2025 As The Year Of Stablecoins](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/04/04/the-circle-ipo-solidifies-2025-as-the-year-of-stablecoin/)" }, { "id": 37640, "title": "Will the EPA's EnergyStar.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-epas-energystargov-still-be-online-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.568782Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.911333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36993, "title": "Will the EPA's EnergyStar.gov still be online on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.568782Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:10:50.281246Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/climate/epa-energy-star-eliminated.html), \"'The Energy Star program and all the other climate work, outside of what’s required by statute, is being de-prioritized and eliminated,' Paul Gunning, the director of the E.P.A. Office of Atmospheric Protection, told employees during the meeting, according to the recording obtained by The New York Times. Mr. Gunning’s office itself is also slated for elimination.\n\nFor the past 33 years, Energy Star has been known for its recognizable blue label, which shows that an appliance has met energy efficiency standards set by the federal government.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if EnergyStar.gov is online according to [Is It Down Right Now?](https://www.isitdownrightnow.com/energystar.gov.html) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "As of May 7, 2025, the resolution source returns the message, \"Energystar.gov is UP and reachable by us.\"", "post_id": 37640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747242972.292329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747242972.292329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6665698610862926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6665693504079824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.138607890209693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3349066924610672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17029314447242005, 0.0, 0.04179800713285482, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078956545637215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423945157233667, 2.385374679034899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8393706158282529, 0.0, 0.9447863337210879, 0.40880911918637236, 0.17192566867158657, 2.0783808830656634, 0.0, 0.873241812299432, 0.0, 0.2964170805706633, 1.3879062053158167, 0.22688961938503294, 0.6280342341719295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3285638648170616, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5488991986026859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01958911193224546, 0.8922909885556951, 0.6290270062089846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18445819292609114 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.28641655465361, "peer_score": 4.250064120292055, "coverage": 0.9864278863867124, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864278863867124, "spot_peer_score": 3.9921391880356882, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 48.28641655465361, "peer_archived_score": 4.250064120292055, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.9921391880356882, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/climate/epa-energy-star-eliminated.html), \"'The Energy Star program and all the other climate work, outside of what’s required by statute, is being de-prioritized and eliminated,' Paul Gunning, the director of the E.P.A. Office of Atmospheric Protection, told employees during the meeting, according to the recording obtained by The New York Times. Mr. Gunning’s office itself is also slated for elimination.\n\nFor the past 33 years, Energy Star has been known for its recognizable blue label, which shows that an appliance has met energy efficiency standards set by the federal government.\"" }, { "id": 37639, "title": "Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mahmoud-khalil-be-deported-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.563237Z", "published_at": "2025-05-14T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.475258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36992, "title": "Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T21:48:34.563237Z", "open_time": "2025-05-14T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:15:06.925207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Mahmoud Khalil's challenge to his detention moves forward]()", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States deports Mahmoud Khalil before July 1, 2025. 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redesign the club’s badge for the 2026-27 season. With St James’ Park executives deciding the crest, that dates back to 1988, is overly elaborate and unsuited to global digital branding requirements, Newcastle are working with designers and consulting fans as they begin rebranding a symbol they believe has become outdated.\n\n###### Guardian: [Newcastle consult fans over plans to redesign ‘outdated’ club badge](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/may/09/newcastle-consult-fans-over-plans-to-redesign-outdated-club-badge)\n\nThe club are not alone in their redesign campaign as badge redesigns to fit the modern era are becoming increasingly common. For example, [Juventus FC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juventus_FC), one of the oldest and most decorated football clubs in the world, [announced](https://web.archive.org/web/20170118033701/http://www.juventus.com/en/news/news/2017/black-and-white-and-more-juventus-future-now-.php) a major logo redesign in 2017, ditching their traditional club badge for an ultra-modern design.\n\nThese modern proposals, along with the accompanying corporate jargon used to justify them, often stand in stark contrast to the traditions that many football fans hold dear. For example, in 2018, Leeds United, one of Britain’s oldest and most popular football clubs, announced a major badge redesign, replacing their traditional emblem for one with a modern twist. However, [widespread backlash](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42803838) from supporters, fellow clubs, and the general public led the club to swiftly abandon the new design, despite months of research and development.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 16, 2025, Newcastle United Football Club officially and explicitly announce that the club badge will not be redesigned. It will also resolve as **Yes** if a new design is announced and, before August 16, 2025, Newcastle officially announces that they will revert to the old design.", "fine_print": "* Any specifics of the badge redesign is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n* Should Newcastle United Football Club cease to exist, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 37552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751316956.449787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751316956.449787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04499997475650589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6011806553169168, 2.909724887365328, 4.166783737289528, 1.8477858871570387, 1.7066758812950145, 1.0646865304474482, 0.8068573042519973, 0.11116377696244527, 1.0687762627200423, 0.15855301661505683, 0.055643155430071346, 0.0, 0.7470313596766492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3369939002420156, 0.025092948519376657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03773530628552311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01010533010201989, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04413541415384499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21274679585576034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00230644805578227, 0.019802118268059273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027687183307636316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018954326705900848 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.25696739810819, "peer_score": 20.414242019331045, "coverage": 0.9999907786317913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999907786317913, "spot_peer_score": 11.32579006474085, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 80.25696739810819, "peer_archived_score": 20.414242019331045, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.32579006474085, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 622, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Newcastle United, one of Britain's oldest and most popular football clubs, recently [announced](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/may/09/newcastle-consult-fans-over-plans-to-redesign-outdated-club-badge) their intention to redesign their club badge:\n\n> Newcastle have risked upsetting some supporters by announcing plans to redesign the club’s badge for the 2026-27 season. With St James’ Park executives deciding the crest, that dates back to 1988, is overly elaborate and unsuited to global digital branding requirements, Newcastle are working with designers and consulting fans as they begin rebranding a symbol they believe has become outdated.\n\n###### Guardian: [Newcastle consult fans over plans to redesign ‘outdated’ club badge](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2025/may/09/newcastle-consult-fans-over-plans-to-redesign-outdated-club-badge)\n\nThe club are not alone in their redesign campaign as badge redesigns to fit the modern era are becoming increasingly common. For example, [Juventus FC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juventus_FC), one of the oldest and most decorated football clubs in the world, [announced](https://web.archive.org/web/20170118033701/http://www.juventus.com/en/news/news/2017/black-and-white-and-more-juventus-future-now-.php) a major logo redesign in 2017, ditching their traditional club badge for an ultra-modern design.\n\nThese modern proposals, along with the accompanying corporate jargon used to justify them, often stand in stark contrast to the traditions that many football fans hold dear. For example, in 2018, Leeds United, one of Britain’s oldest and most popular football clubs, announced a major badge redesign, replacing their traditional emblem for one with a modern twist. However, [widespread backlash](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42803838) from supporters, fellow clubs, and the general public led the club to swiftly abandon the new design, despite months of research and development." }, { "id": 37550, "title": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?", "short_title": "Power outage in Continental Europe grid affecting multiple countries before '28?", "url_title": "Power outage in Continental Europe grid affecting multiple countries before '28?", "slug": "power-outage-in-continental-europe-grid-affecting-multiple-countries-before-28", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-09T15:15:13.147209Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T18:31:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T11:30:45.142299Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-09T18:32:40.013294Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-10T18:31:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ] }, "question": { "id": 36903, "title": "Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-05-09T15:15:13.147660Z", "open_time": "2025-05-10T18:31:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T18:31:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-14T18:31:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Continental European synchronous area, managed by the [<u>European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E)</u>](https://www.entsoe.eu/), is the world’s largest interconnected power grid, [<u>serving over 400 million customers across 25 countries</u>](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/), including Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and others. ENTSO-E’s Continental Europe regional group coordinates transmission system operators (TSOs) to ensure grid stability and power exchange across borders. This synchronous grid relies on maintaining a consistent frequency (50 Hz) to prevent outages, but its [<u>complexity and increasing reliance on renewable energy sources pose challenges to stability</u>](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/iberian-peninsula-blackout-causes-consequences-and-challenges-ahead).\n\nOn April 28, 2025, a [<u>major blackout struck the Iberian Peninsula</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/large-parts-spain-portugal-hit-by-power-outage-2025-04-28/), affecting Spain, Portugal, parts of southwestern France, and Andorra. [<u>Starting at 12:33 CEST, the outage impacted over 100 million people for approximately 10 hours,</u>](https://www.powermag.com/understanding-the-april-2025-iberian-peninsula-blackout-early-analysis-and-lessons-learned/) with some rural areas affected longer. The event, caused by a disconnection from the European synchronous grid and subsequent power imbalances, disrupted transportation, telecommunications, and essential services. [<u>At least eight deaths were reported</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackout), and recovery required a black start operation supported by imports from Morocco and France. Preliminary analyses by Red Eléctrica de España and ENTSO-E point to grid isolation (Iberia’s limited 3% interconnection capacity with France) and [<u>potential issues with high renewable penetration (80% solar and wind) as contributing factors</u>](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/iberian-peninsula-blackout-causes-consequences-and-challenges-ahead), though the exact cause remains under investigation.\n\nHistorical blackouts highlight the grid’s vulnerabilities. The [<u>2006 European blackout affected over 15 million customers across Germany, France, Italy</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), and other countries for about two hours due to a cascading failure triggered by a planned line disconnection. [<u>On January 8, 2021, a system split in the Continental Europe grid narrowly avoided a massive blackout, classified as an “extensive incident” by ENTSO-E</u>](https://www.acer.europa.eu/news/continental-europe-electricity-system-separation-incident-8-january-2021-next-steps). Other notable outages include the [<u>2003 Italy blackout</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout) (affecting 56 million people, with minor impacts in Switzerland) and the [<u>2015 Turkey blackout</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Turkey_blackout) (a single-country event not meeting multi-country criteria).\n\nThe 2025 Iberian blackout underscores ongoing challenges, including limited cross-border interconnections, high renewable energy integration (which can reduce grid inertia), and the need for modernized infrastructure like synchronous condensers or batteries. [<u>The European Union’s target of 15% interconnection capacity by 2030</u>](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-power-grid-needs-trillion-dollar-upgrade-avert-spain-style-blackouts-2025-05-05/) aims to enhance grid resilience, but progress varies across regions.\n\nThis forecasting question is significant as it probes the resilience of the Continental Europe synchronous grid amid rising energy demands, increasing renewable energy integration, and evolving climate challenges. The 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout highlights the risks of grid isolation and insufficient infrastructure, making predictions about future outages critical for informing policy, investment, and technological advancements to ensure a stable, sustainable energy future.\n\n*Please note this question’s resolution criteria was heavily informed by @*[*<u>aqsalose</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117552/)’s [*<u>question</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/) *from June 30, 2021*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **Yes** if a blackout occurs in the Continental European synchronous area, meeting all of the following conditions before January 1, 2028 (UTC):\n\n* Affects at least two countries in the ENTSO-E Continental synchronous area (currently including Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and Turkey as an observer member).\n* Impacts a total of more than 10 million people, based on population estimates of affected areas.\n* Lasts for more than 1 hour in an area sufficient to meet the previous two criteria.\n* Is reported by at least two [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) through official channels\n* To resolve ambiguities, reports from national broadcasters or grid operators in affected countries may be consulted. The blackout must result from a failure in the synchronous grid, excluding localized outages due to natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes) or deliberate sabotage (e.g., physical attacks on infrastructure) unless they trigger a cascading grid failure.", "fine_print": "* A “blackout” is defined as a complete loss of electric power in affected areas, excluding planned outages or brownouts (partial power reductions).\n* Population estimates will be based on official national or regional statistics for affected areas at the time of the outage.\n* If the ENTSO-E Continental Europe synchronous area undergoes significant membership changes (e.g., more than 50% of current members leave or new members join), the question will apply to any synchronous grid including at least 50% of the current member countries.\n* Cyberattacks causing cascading grid failures are included, but resolution will require evidence of grid impact rather than speculative claims.\n* Examples: The 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout (affecting Spain, Portugal, and parts of France) would resolve as Yes; a single-country outage like Turkey 2015 would resolve as No.", "post_id": 37550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762513309.754, "end_time": 1763614490.442253, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762513309.754, "end_time": 1763614490.442253, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4563012359009432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 1.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Continental European synchronous area, managed by the [<u>European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E)</u>](https://www.entsoe.eu/), is the world’s largest interconnected power grid, [<u>serving over 400 million customers across 25 countries</u>](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/), including Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and others. ENTSO-E’s Continental Europe regional group coordinates transmission system operators (TSOs) to ensure grid stability and power exchange across borders. This synchronous grid relies on maintaining a consistent frequency (50 Hz) to prevent outages, but its [<u>complexity and increasing reliance on renewable energy sources pose challenges to stability</u>](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/iberian-peninsula-blackout-causes-consequences-and-challenges-ahead).\n\nOn April 28, 2025, a [<u>major blackout struck the Iberian Peninsula</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/large-parts-spain-portugal-hit-by-power-outage-2025-04-28/), affecting Spain, Portugal, parts of southwestern France, and Andorra. [<u>Starting at 12:33 CEST, the outage impacted over 100 million people for approximately 10 hours,</u>](https://www.powermag.com/understanding-the-april-2025-iberian-peninsula-blackout-early-analysis-and-lessons-learned/) with some rural areas affected longer. The event, caused by a disconnection from the European synchronous grid and subsequent power imbalances, disrupted transportation, telecommunications, and essential services. [<u>At least eight deaths were reported</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackout), and recovery required a black start operation supported by imports from Morocco and France. Preliminary analyses by Red Eléctrica de España and ENTSO-E point to grid isolation (Iberia’s limited 3% interconnection capacity with France) and [<u>potential issues with high renewable penetration (80% solar and wind) as contributing factors</u>](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/iberian-peninsula-blackout-causes-consequences-and-challenges-ahead), though the exact cause remains under investigation.\n\nHistorical blackouts highlight the grid’s vulnerabilities. The [<u>2006 European blackout affected over 15 million customers across Germany, France, Italy</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), and other countries for about two hours due to a cascading failure triggered by a planned line disconnection. [<u>On January 8, 2021, a system split in the Continental Europe grid narrowly avoided a massive blackout, classified as an “extensive incident” by ENTSO-E</u>](https://www.acer.europa.eu/news/continental-europe-electricity-system-separation-incident-8-january-2021-next-steps). Other notable outages include the [<u>2003 Italy blackout</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout) (affecting 56 million people, with minor impacts in Switzerland) and the [<u>2015 Turkey blackout</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Turkey_blackout) (a single-country event not meeting multi-country criteria).\n\nThe 2025 Iberian blackout underscores ongoing challenges, including limited cross-border interconnections, high renewable energy integration (which can reduce grid inertia), and the need for modernized infrastructure like synchronous condensers or batteries. [<u>The European Union’s target of 15% interconnection capacity by 2030</u>](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-power-grid-needs-trillion-dollar-upgrade-avert-spain-style-blackouts-2025-05-05/) aims to enhance grid resilience, but progress varies across regions.\n\nThis forecasting question is significant as it probes the resilience of the Continental Europe synchronous grid amid rising energy demands, increasing renewable energy integration, and evolving climate challenges. The 2025 Iberian Peninsula blackout highlights the risks of grid isolation and insufficient infrastructure, making predictions about future outages critical for informing policy, investment, and technological advancements to ensure a stable, sustainable energy future.\n\n*Please note this question’s resolution criteria was heavily informed by @*[*<u>aqsalose</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117552/)’s [*<u>question</u>*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/) *from June 30, 2021*" }, { "id": 37543, "title": "Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?", "short_title": "Will a participant earn a $750 comment prize in the Summer 2025 Cup?", "url_title": "Will a participant earn a $750 comment prize in the Summer 2025 Cup?", "slug": "will-a-participant-earn-a-750-comment-prize-in-the-summer-2025-cup", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-08T15:11:07.786923Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T01:50:30.022737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-09T09:46:17.537212Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-16T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 169, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36898, "title": "Will a participant reach the $750 comment prize cap in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?", "created_at": "2025-05-08T15:11:07.787394Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-17T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-16T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-16T22:48:51.492871Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Metaculus Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup/) is a tournament on Metaculus held 3 times a year, covering a wide range of topics, with all questions being resolved within roughly 4 months. It is the continuation of Quarterly Cup series and includes both a forecasting and commenting prize pool. The Summer 2025 Cup is running from early May, until August 31, 2025.\n\n***\n\nA copy of the prize rules for comments can be found below:\n\nA **Commenting Prize (\\$1,500)** that will be distributed to the 10 best comments made on Metaculus Cup questions before the end of the tournament. Metaculus will choose top comments that best showcase some or all of the following traits:\n\n* Provides clear and insightful reasoning.\n* Provides valuable information.\n* Identifies a mistake in the community's prediction or makes a strong case for a different prediction than the community's.\n* The comment identifies key factors and the commenter submits these using the new key factors feature.\n* The comment receives \"Changed My Mind\" votes or key factors produced via the comment are rated as significant by the community.\n\nComments do not need to make a forecast that turns out to be accurate, even if a comment argues for a forecast that ends up directionally incorrect we will evaluate the comment based primarily on the strength of its reasoning.\n\nPrizes will be awarded to the top rated comments as shown below. Individual commenters can receive multiple prizes, but will be will be capped so that an individual does not receive additional prizes below the prize rank that first reaches or surpasses \\$750 in total winnings.\n\n* 1st: \\$300\n* 2nd: \\$250\n* 3rd: \\$200\n* 4th: \\$150\n* 5th-10th: \\$100\n\n***\n\nPrevious tournaments with similar, but different comment prizes include:\n\n* [Forecasting OWID](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/21781/forecasting-owid-commenting-prize-winners/)\n* The [Sagan Space Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/21337/sagan-space-commenting-prize-winners/)\n* [Forecast With GiveWell](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/35080/forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize-winners/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any single participant of the current, Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup earns at least \\$750 in commenting prizes.", "fine_print": "Since the comment prizes are independent of question resolutions, all tournament comments will be considered for a prize, including those in this question.", "post_id": 37543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751316903.98706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751316903.98706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4547849236086184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.45769667298797767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009992587649107681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1686527039560339, 0.8430900527990505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004414835062178744, 0.3949013809279436, 0.0027246151537072046, 0.0004884690240385973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010825128634371755, 0.02838236286538105, 0.0, 0.060697783076308756, 0.0, 0.7539644070451259, 0.001892011841939017, 0.0, 0.0008614234482275015, 0.0, 0.35439777087504004, 0.0, 0.17423677577556576, 0.0, 0.09380767485606997, 1.9240613353479685, 0.0, 9.162097006103202e-05, 1.8187247646005678, 0.0, 2.6677584740013502, 0.6567719666653674, 2.2436421812308174, 1.5882002787625868, 0.4323032325238946, 2.3818689434062756, 0.0, 0.0, 1.064098127703829, 0.327340876885621, 0.5013114639841529, 0.42679451416928404, 0.1713712629313057, 0.0, 0.030128754957180287, 0.7416164893825095, 0.3255806296667531, 0.15084546421222933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05164525651552112, 0.0, 0.04833776028167158, 0.03529879356280834, 0.0, 0.25775852147507555, 0.0005504912825987995, 0.0, 0.006479342809997694, 0.4515093694294406, 0.024256152638568805, 0.0, 0.00021806544493256714, 0.0, 0.016057696388046983, 0.1099259732378261, 4.4711075324938296e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014065569448769515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006977879943650259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13097011996578045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017142502437725943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007889129158252312, 0.005572555126426858 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -26.599579527669004, "peer_score": 14.951827406977026, "coverage": 0.9999897491876351, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999897491876351, "spot_peer_score": 7.5605804930561815, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -26.599579527669004, "peer_archived_score": 14.951827406977026, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.5605804930561815, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1493, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Metaculus Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup/) is a tournament on Metaculus held 3 times a year, covering a wide range of topics, with all questions being resolved within roughly 4 months. It is the continuation of Quarterly Cup series and includes both a forecasting and commenting prize pool. The Summer 2025 Cup is running from early May, until August 31, 2025.\n\n***\n\nA copy of the prize rules for comments can be found below:\n\nA **Commenting Prize (\\$1,500)** that will be distributed to the 10 best comments made on Metaculus Cup questions before the end of the tournament. Metaculus will choose top comments that best showcase some or all of the following traits:\n\n* Provides clear and insightful reasoning.\n* Provides valuable information.\n* Identifies a mistake in the community's prediction or makes a strong case for a different prediction than the community's.\n* The comment identifies key factors and the commenter submits these using the new key factors feature.\n* The comment receives \"Changed My Mind\" votes or key factors produced via the comment are rated as significant by the community.\n\nComments do not need to make a forecast that turns out to be accurate, even if a comment argues for a forecast that ends up directionally incorrect we will evaluate the comment based primarily on the strength of its reasoning.\n\nPrizes will be awarded to the top rated comments as shown below. Individual commenters can receive multiple prizes, but will be will be capped so that an individual does not receive additional prizes below the prize rank that first reaches or surpasses \\$750 in total winnings.\n\n* 1st: \\$300\n* 2nd: \\$250\n* 3rd: \\$200\n* 4th: \\$150\n* 5th-10th: \\$100\n\n***\n\nPrevious tournaments with similar, but different comment prizes include:\n\n* [Forecasting OWID](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/21781/forecasting-owid-commenting-prize-winners/)\n* The [Sagan Space Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/21337/sagan-space-commenting-prize-winners/)\n* [Forecast With GiveWell](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/35080/forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize-winners/)" }, { "id": 37540, "title": "Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?", "short_title": "Kemi ousted as Tory Leader by Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Kemi ousted as Tory Leader by Sep 2025?", "slug": "kemi-ousted-as-tory-leader-by-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-08T07:14:49.358352Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.908827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-16T16:38:08.678763Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 150, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36897, "title": "Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-08T07:14:49.358762Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-22T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-31T23:02:52.226271Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_\\(UK\\)) (commonly referred to as the Conservatives or the Tories) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), it holds 121 seats in the House of Commons and recorded 23.7 percent of the popular vote, relegating it to the opposition. The party is organised through a national board, regional associations, and an annual conference to set policy and priorities.\n\n[Kemi Badenoch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch) is the MP for North West Essex and entered Parliament in [June 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election) as the member for Saffron Walden. She served as Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade from September 2022 to February 2023, then as Minister for Women and Equalities until July 2024. After the 2024 general election, she stood in the [leadership contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) and was elected party leader on November 2, 2024, becoming [Leader of the Opposition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Opposition_\\(United_Kingdom\\)).\n\nDuring the 2024 general election, the Conservative Party recorded its worst result in modern history, losing over 250 seats. Since Kemi Badenoch became leader, polling has declined even further, with critics pointing to her low media visibility and lack of a clear message. The[ 2025 local elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections) resulted in the party losing over 600 council seats and control of 13 councils, triggering intensified speculation about a possible leadership challenge, and calls for her resignation - something she recently [described](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lk14q9k5ro) as \"not serious\".\n\nLeadership contests are governed by the [1922 Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1922_Committee) of backbench MPs. A contest begins when the incumbent resigns or when at least 15 percent of Conservative MPs submit letters to its chair, triggering an internal confidence vote among all Conservative MPs. If the leader loses that vote, a leadership campaign begins, and MPs hold successive ballots to reduce the field to two candidates, the finalists are then put to a postal ballot of the wider party membership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following happen before September 1, 2025:\n\n1. Kemi Badenoch formally announces her intention to resign.\n2. Kemi Badenoch loses an internal vote confidence held by the 1922 committee.\n3. A leadership election is held to elect the leader of the Conservative Party, even if Kemi Badenoch is a candidate.", "fine_print": "* This question will use BST (UTC+1:00) for its deadline.\n* A formal announcement of Kemi Badenoch's intention to resign will resolve this question as **Yes** even if Badenoch doesn't resign or later retracts the announcement.", "post_id": 37540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752942303.534415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752942303.534415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07865323542338672 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.013340015314276, 2.2147518996802256, 1.0248944140595337, 0.46771217623817773, 2.7754937936761337, 2.6933355617498003, 0.5114861221234472, 3.2975136551829114, 0.0018827190265937534, 1.051257404914578, 0.10010066533184454, 0.14899085517498198, 0.42505405490660486, 0.0, 0.1297911561650962, 0.4456715367851595, 0.011191020838932624, 0.26042202380758, 0.0, 0.010135987728735986, 0.06652276764866175, 0.07489538194570286, 0.20397277930570568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07976139074360485, 0.0, 0.014898447896288268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06970663191263256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004752795253935134, 0.0, 0.019549436878526404, 0.0, 0.01788310826903167, 0.0002809175117399587, 0.005978849674628248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03247615849383687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004217311577006316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4173353600950991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09249871784476868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.007789279666255, "peer_score": 19.53155782640324, "coverage": 0.999982671456838, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999982671456838, "spot_peer_score": 23.29616903485637, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 53.007789279666255, "peer_archived_score": 19.53155782640324, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.29616903485637, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1316, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_\\(UK\\)) (commonly referred to as the Conservatives or the Tories) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), it holds 121 seats in the House of Commons and recorded 23.7 percent of the popular vote, relegating it to the opposition. The party is organised through a national board, regional associations, and an annual conference to set policy and priorities.\n\n[Kemi Badenoch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch) is the MP for North West Essex and entered Parliament in [June 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election) as the member for Saffron Walden. She served as Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade from September 2022 to February 2023, then as Minister for Women and Equalities until July 2024. After the 2024 general election, she stood in the [leadership contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) and was elected party leader on November 2, 2024, becoming [Leader of the Opposition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Opposition_\\(United_Kingdom\\)).\n\nDuring the 2024 general election, the Conservative Party recorded its worst result in modern history, losing over 250 seats. Since Kemi Badenoch became leader, polling has declined even further, with critics pointing to her low media visibility and lack of a clear message. The[ 2025 local elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_Kingdom_local_elections) resulted in the party losing over 600 council seats and control of 13 councils, triggering intensified speculation about a possible leadership challenge, and calls for her resignation - something she recently [described](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lk14q9k5ro) as \"not serious\".\n\nLeadership contests are governed by the [1922 Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1922_Committee) of backbench MPs. A contest begins when the incumbent resigns or when at least 15 percent of Conservative MPs submit letters to its chair, triggering an internal confidence vote among all Conservative MPs. If the leader loses that vote, a leadership campaign begins, and MPs hold successive ballots to reduce the field to two candidates, the finalists are then put to a postal ballot of the wider party membership." }, { "id": 37524, "title": "Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?", "short_title": "Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?", "url_title": "Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?", "slug": "alcatraz-house-inmates-before-2028", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-06T19:35:34.268926Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T13:31:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T00:47:37.363453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-07T13:33:37.729909Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-08T13:31:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36889, "title": "Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-05-06T19:35:34.269368Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T13:31:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T13:31:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-12T13:31:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.", "fine_print": "* Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n* A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.", "post_id": 37524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762649247.101239, "end_time": 1763116200.251, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762649247.101239, "end_time": 1763116200.251, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.04404011813689714 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.781888499926116, 0.13444868060126633, 0.42069258059606784, 0.6909710575892369, 1.0, 1.70616051121486, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\"." }, { "id": 37523, "title": "Will the ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis mediated by Oman be broken before June 2026?", "short_title": "U.S. and Houthis ceasefire broken before June 2026?", "url_title": "U.S. and Houthis ceasefire broken before June 2026?", "slug": "us-and-houthis-ceasefire-broken-before-june-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-06T19:24:42.430051Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T13:44:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T02:31:03.904793Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-07T13:45:11.808345Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-08T13:44:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36888, "title": "Will the ceasefire between the U.S. and Yemen’s Houthis mediated by Oman be broken before June 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-06T19:24:42.430414Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T13:44:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T13:44:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-12T13:44:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following a nearly-two month bombing campaign by the US, Oman announced in May 2025 that it had successfully mediated a [ceasefire agreement](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-will-stop-bombing-houthis-after-agreement-struck-2025-05-06/) between the US and Yemen's Houthis group. The ceasefire was intended to halt direct hostilities while opening the door to longer-term negotiations, though the precise terms and duration of the agreement have yet to be announced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the U.S. military or Houthi forces engage in direct attacks against the other between after May 6, 2025 and before June 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). The strike must be targeted against the U.S. or Houthis. Accidental strikes or collateral losses will not resolve this question.", "fine_print": "* This question will not resolve as **Yes** if the attacking party is a splinter group or breakaway faction that is not widely recognized by credible sources as acting under the authority of the main Houthi leadership.\n* Defensive actions (e.g., intercepting drones without returning fire) do not count as violations unless they involve counter-strikes.\n* Examples of direct military hostilities by the U.S. include (but are not limited to): U.S. airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes targeting Houthi-controlled territory or forces\n* Examples of direct military hostilities by the Houthis include (but are not limited to): Houthi missile, drone, or other kinetic attacks that target U.S. military assets, bases, or vessels.", "post_id": 37523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762569053.530953, "end_time": 1765161053.73, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762569053.530953, "end_time": 1765161053.73, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5353341414299 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9445349338426916, 1.465831162611322, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following a nearly-two month bombing campaign by the US, Oman announced in May 2025 that it had successfully mediated a [ceasefire agreement](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-will-stop-bombing-houthis-after-agreement-struck-2025-05-06/) between the US and Yemen's Houthis group. The ceasefire was intended to halt direct hostilities while opening the door to longer-term negotiations, though the precise terms and duration of the agreement have yet to be announced." }, { "id": 37510, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-word-tariffs-disappear-from-the-front-print-pages-of-the-new-york-times-and-wall-street-journal-by-june-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.725508Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.468610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-07T19:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-07T19:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-07T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36870, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.725508Z", "open_time": "2025-05-07T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-07T19:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-07T19:10:26.725313Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-07T19:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, after \\[OPEN DATE] and before June 1, 2025, the words, \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\", do not appear on the print front page of The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question:\n\n* The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper)\n* Wall Street Journal:\t [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage)\n\n***\n\n<sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for April 14, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup>", "fine_print": "Grammar is not relevant (e.g. \"TARIFF\" will suffice to prevent a \"No\" resolution).\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, it does not have to be in a title.", "post_id": 37510, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746625017.963408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746625017.963408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 37509, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by Johnsonville LLC of cheddar bratwurst for foreign matter contamination issued April 5, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-by-johnsonville-llc-of-cheddar-bratwurst-for-foreign-matter-contamination-issued-april-5-2025-be-closed-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.714213Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.082185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-22T13:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-07T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36869, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by Johnsonville LLC of cheddar bratwurst for foreign matter contamination issued April 5, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.714213Z", "open_time": "2025-05-07T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-22T13:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-22T13:59:40.204866Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Real Simple: [Over 22,000 Pounds of a Popular Sausage Brand Recalled Due to Contamination](https://www.realsimple.com/sausage-recall-2025-11711268)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/johnsonville-llc-recalls-cheddar-bratwurst-product-due-possible-foreign-matter) before July 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746755813.991082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746755813.991082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6887528321780576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6740928625074545, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.17897543056208, "peer_score": 2.0936793954223223, "coverage": 0.8477509890781508, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8477509890781508, "spot_peer_score": 1.773114719652541, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 41.17897543056208, "peer_archived_score": 2.0936793954223223, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.773114719652541, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Real Simple: [Over 22,000 Pounds of a Popular Sausage Brand Recalled Due to Contamination](https://www.realsimple.com/sausage-recall-2025-11711268)" } ] }
