Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=980
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=960", "results": [ { "id": 35498, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-500th-richest-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-have-65-billion-or-more-on-march-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.970012Z", "published_at": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.920944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34965, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.970012Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T00:13:23.705560Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.50B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after March 28, 2025, after 5:30 PM Eastern Time.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on the resolution date, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person.", "post_id": 35498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740530016.584787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740530016.584787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.667, 0.333 ], "means": [ 0.30905673993176896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5145912252496967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1122128468034793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.054599074853265, "peer_score": 0.3716682140970434, "coverage": 0.7141729364400548, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7141729364400548, "spot_peer_score": 0.5059542943072229, "spot_baseline_score": 41.5758666522498, "baseline_archived_score": 27.054599074853265, "peer_archived_score": 0.3716682140970434, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5059542943072229, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 41.5758666522498 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York." }, { "id": 35497, "title": "Will Nebraska have 1.7 million or more residents living in drought on March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nebraska-have-17-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-march-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.948999Z", "published_at": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.081784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:06:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34964, "title": "Will Nebraska have 1.7 million or more residents living in drought on March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.948999Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T00:12:00.034286Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Severe Drought Conditions for 22.6% of Nebraska Residents in 2024](https://www.easternprogress.com/severe-drought-conditions-for-22-6-of-nebraska-residents-in-2024/article_10004bbf-0710-54b0-abb9-a7d776ebec68.html?=/&subcategory=292%7CRock)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/nebraska) lists greater than or equal to 1.7 million Nebraska residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after March 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740529518.823882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.657 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740529518.823882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.657 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6940538418390986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.17411067864873367, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3613198840876368, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3127729784198179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -46.52802155466878, "peer_score": 4.830338476804374, "coverage": 0.707785657210415, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.707785657210415, "spot_peer_score": -3.673000882732101, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -46.52802155466878, "peer_archived_score": 4.830338476804374, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.673000882732101, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Severe Drought Conditions for 22.6% of Nebraska Residents in 2024](https://www.easternprogress.com/severe-drought-conditions-for-22-6-of-nebraska-residents-in-2024/article_10004bbf-0710-54b0-abb9-a7d776ebec68.html?=/&subcategory=292%7CRock)" }, { "id": 35493, "title": "Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 2 individuals in February 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-grant-executive-clemency-to-more-than-2-individuals-in-february-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.531398Z", "published_at": "2025-02-22T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.606684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T12:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-22T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34960, "title": "Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 2 individuals in February 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T04:28:59.531398Z", "open_time": "2025-02-22T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-13T12:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-13T12:46:39.711867Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 20, 2025, this was one individual: Rod Blagojevich", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald J. Trump grants [executive clemency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump#Trump's_second-term_use_of_executive_clemency) to greater than 2 individuals in February 2025.", "fine_print": "Partial pardons or clemencies count. They will only count if publicly disclosed. Wide-reaching blanket pardons or commutations also count.", "post_id": 35493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740436260.554592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740436260.554592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.11294810066470262 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.664386121578093, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.596589295778137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6353066724512867, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.66686888990918, "peer_score": -1.485013533569376, "coverage": 0.9095682931973552, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9095682931973552, "spot_peer_score": -2.277765253273548, "spot_baseline_score": 80.73549220576041, "baseline_archived_score": 75.66686888990918, "peer_archived_score": -1.485013533569376, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.277765253273548, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 80.73549220576041 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 20, 2025, this was one individual: Rod Blagojevich" }, { "id": 35481, "title": "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:57:00.072964Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T11:56:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:42:29.398033Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-26T11:56:01Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-26T12:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32681, "type": "question_series", "name": "USAID Outlook", "slug": "usaid", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/usaid-outlook-banner.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-02-27T20:03:51Z", "close_date": "2027-02-27T20:04:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-02-25T18:24:54.898063Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T00:17:55.447677Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32681, "type": "question_series", "name": "USAID Outlook", "slug": "usaid", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/usaid-outlook-banner.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-02-27T20:03:51Z", "close_date": "2027-02-27T20:04:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-02-25T18:24:54.898063Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T00:17:55.447677Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34948, "title": "Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:57:00.073304Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T12:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T13:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T13:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n\nAccording to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n\n1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief ([PEPFAR](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n\n* the initiative being terminated.\n* the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PEPFAR no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.  \n* the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.", "fine_print": "* Because PEPFAR was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n* Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n* PEPFAR being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global AIDS/HIV prevention and treatment remains intact within the same program.", "post_id": 35481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757314093.862, "end_time": 1758172820.721, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757314093.862, "end_time": 1758172820.721, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1984804956414416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.957503847387267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7091472361039657, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3904294683905049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36188174248890814, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n\nAccording to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n\n1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. " }, { "id": 35480, "title": "Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-900000-russian-personnel-losses-be-reported-before-march-21-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.932471Z", "published_at": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.654662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-27T23:34:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34947, "title": "Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.932471Z", "open_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-27T23:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-27T23:37:11.344238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nOn February 19, 2025, they [reported](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/the-estimated-combat-losses-of-russians-over-the-last-day-1-300-persons-175-ua-vs-and-72-artillery-systems) a total of 862,390 estimated casualties. At the same time the daily rate is being constantly above 1000 since July 25, 2024. With the pace of 1300 casualties per day the number of 900,000 casualties should be reached on March 20, 2025.\n\nHistorical data can be tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 21, 2025, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 900,000 or more total Russian personnel losses on their [official site](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news?tags=Combat) or public media pages ([Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua), [Telegram](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU), [X.com](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA)).\n\nIf all reports published before March 21, 2025 show numbers below 900,000, this question resolves as **No**. This includes the case when the General Staff of the AFU stops publishing their data due to a ceasefire or peace agreement.", "fine_print": "* \"Personnel losses\" in this context are *killed and wounded* soldiers and that wounded soldiers may return to the battlefield later.\n* In the past there was at least one occasion on [May 27, 2023](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/594141432898939?ref=embed_post) when the error in the previous day's report was admitted and corrected. For this reason, the question will resolve two days later than any published report, although it will retroactively close before the date the report was first published.\n* Historical trackers mentioned in the Background information ([russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/), [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)) may be used as secondary resolution sources if the main resolution pages are banned/unavailable.", "post_id": 35480, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740846625.677248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740846625.677248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7311953604502731 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4064632657465443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6159630437606753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.467676602585296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7301590642445112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -114.77579056488358, "peer_score": 8.166998733732829, "coverage": 0.9939349008268781, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939349008268781, "spot_peer_score": -5.400018280082177, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -114.77579056488358, "peer_archived_score": 8.166998733732829, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.400018280082177, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nOn February 19, 2025, they [reported](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/the-estimated-combat-losses-of-russians-over-the-last-day-1-300-persons-175-ua-vs-and-72-artillery-systems) a total of 862,390 estimated casualties. At the same time the daily rate is being constantly above 1000 since July 25, 2024. With the pace of 1300 casualties per day the number of 900,000 casualties should be reached on March 20, 2025.\n\nHistorical data can be tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)." }, { "id": 35479, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo run for mayor of New York City?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-andrew-cuomo-run-for-mayor-of-new-york-city", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.897777Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.283246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34946, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo run for mayor of New York City?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.897777Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-02T00:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-02T00:25:51.041062Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Cuomo was elected to three terms as governor and resigned in 2021 after a sexual harassment scandal.\n\nHe is considering entering the race and leads in polls. If he does run, he is expected to highlight his record as governor, which included major infrastructure projects, raising the minimum wage, leading the state through the coronavirus pandemic and legalizing same-sex marriage.\n\nMr. Cuomo made enemies through his combative political tactics. Some have already vowed to highlight the Justice Department’s findings that he sexually harassed at least 13 state employees, which he denies. He has also faced widespread criticism for his handling of nursing home deaths early in the pandemic.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/nyregion/nyc-mayor-candidates-2025.html) tracker page maintained by the New York Times is updated before April 1, 2025 to classify Andrew Cuomo as running for mayor of New York City. If that tracker page does not have Cuomo listed as Running, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. Should the webpage be offline on April 1, 2025, resolution will wait until the end of this tournament's resolutions, at which time if the page is still down the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 35479, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711554.06997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6924999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711554.06997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6924999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3075000000000001, 0.6924999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.6487548572866539 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9462524413216661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5111672514803145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2393121051541134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.21433492782282093, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9250144769911857, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49026183385051725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 50.760350340814334, "peer_score": 10.740334269952733, "coverage": 0.9497769519355559, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9497769519355559, "spot_peer_score": 9.512816812937661, "spot_baseline_score": 46.98859762744633, "baseline_archived_score": 50.760350340814334, "peer_archived_score": 10.740334269952733, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.512816812937661, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 46.98859762744633 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Cuomo was elected to three terms as governor and resigned in 2021 after a sexual harassment scandal.\n\nHe is considering entering the race and leads in polls. If he does run, he is expected to highlight his record as governor, which included major infrastructure projects, raising the minimum wage, leading the state through the coronavirus pandemic and legalizing same-sex marriage.\n\nMr. Cuomo made enemies through his combative political tactics. Some have already vowed to highlight the Justice Department’s findings that he sexually harassed at least 13 state employees, which he denies. He has also faced widespread criticism for his handling of nursing home deaths early in the pandemic.\"" }, { "id": 35478, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-steelnippon-steel-merger-collapse-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.868035Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.546778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T10:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34945, "title": "Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.868035Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T10:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T10:39:33.451259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711540.199707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711540.199707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4437042078448273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5998519805642499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9079720020443003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3635516720181022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.426304614965888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1526622014128527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.144472081323928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18264215333895617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -4.082708633477216, "peer_score": 31.420623575197826, "coverage": 0.9550982016987272, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9550982016987272, "spot_peer_score": 40.46396370661618, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": -4.082708633477216, "peer_archived_score": 31.420623575197826, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.46396370661618, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel)" }, { "id": 35477, "title": "Will 290 or more UN staff be reported to be working in Gaza according to UN's OCHA in its final impact snapshot before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-290-or-more-un-staff-be-reported-to-be-working-in-gaza-according-to-uns-ocha-in-its-final-impact-snapshot-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.837248Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.814699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T19:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34944, "title": "Will 290 or more UN staff be reported to be working in Gaza according to UN's OCHA in its final impact snapshot before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.837248Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T19:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T19:32:27.030565Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "See accompanying Humanitarian update [here](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-263-gaza-strip).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of reported UN staff working in Gaza is greater than or equal to 290 according to the most recent impact snapshot for the Gaza Strip posted [here](https://www.ochaopt.org/publications) by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs as of April 1, 2025. For example, the most recent snapshot at the time of this question, dated February 11, 2025, [reports](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-11-february-2025) 277 UN staff.", "fine_print": "If OCHA stops posting new updates, this resolves as the most recent number, which as of the time of this question would be the impact snapshot posted on February 11, 2025.", "post_id": 35477, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711575.802738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711575.802738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.675, 0.325 ], "means": [ 0.3340314122959584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6259787766061568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.914509140870113, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4659230112788775, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8809769427372443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0755566623209275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.546889278325313, "peer_score": 2.693100206778836, "coverage": 0.9605921119451525, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9605921119451525, "spot_peer_score": 6.271509640171736, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "baseline_archived_score": 27.546889278325313, "peer_archived_score": 2.693100206778836, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.271509640171736, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "See accompanying Humanitarian update [here](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-263-gaza-strip)." }, { "id": 35476, "title": "Will Nasa's SphereX space telescope be launched before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nasas-spherex-space-telescope-be-launched-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.805640Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.139646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34943, "title": "Will Nasa's SphereX space telescope be launched before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.805640Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:56:55.725283Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NPR: [Searching the entire sky for the secrets to our universe](https://www.npr.org/2025/02/09/nx-s1-5279568/searching-the-entire-sky-for-the-secrets-to-our-universe)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a rocket with the SPHEREx space telescope as part of its payload launches before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question \"launch\" [is defined](https://science.nasa.gov/learn/basics-of-space-flight/chapter14-1/) using the following from Nasa: \"The launch of a spacecraft comprises a period of powered flight during which the vehicle rises above Earth's atmosphere and accelerates at least to orbital velocity.\"", "post_id": 35476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711505.689126, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7875 ], "centers": [ 0.8859999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711505.689126, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7875 ], "centers": [ 0.8859999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.1140000000000001, 0.8859999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.8174547144359444 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7993248434186838, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 1.109496035641102, 0.0, 2.335018659730096, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 1.4377465973247507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.50403834785931, "peer_score": 0.7920046333705715, "coverage": 0.9664241863621605, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9664241863621605, "spot_peer_score": 3.5794555273655244, "spot_baseline_score": 82.53786038929312, "baseline_archived_score": 83.50403834785931, "peer_archived_score": 0.7920046333705715, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5794555273655244, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 82.53786038929312 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NPR: [Searching the entire sky for the secrets to our universe](https://www.npr.org/2025/02/09/nx-s1-5279568/searching-the-entire-sky-for-the-secrets-to-our-universe)" }, { "id": 35475, "title": "Will Blue Ghost successfully land on the moon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-blue-ghost-successfully-land-on-the-moon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.502120Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.423446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34942, "title": "Will Blue Ghost successfully land on the moon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.502120Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:54:35.418613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The mission's planned landing date [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Ghost_Mission_1) March 2, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [Blue Ghost Mission 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Ghost_Mission_1) successfully lands on the moon.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a successful landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact and able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent at least some of its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission. For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as Yes (this does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as time capsules might survive impact)", "post_id": 35475, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711495.323929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.654 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711495.323929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.654 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7557974192891513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0136843474375798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6688493394335304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862793416224878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3871520721180772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2792701067509186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.143966809260909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.35459250982841, "peer_score": 6.981838391479677, "coverage": 0.9714912269512811, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9714912269512811, "spot_peer_score": 5.557333782561478, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 52.35459250982841, "peer_archived_score": 6.981838391479677, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.557333782561478, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The mission's planned landing date [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Ghost_Mission_1) March 2, 2025." }, { "id": 35474, "title": "Will India's Gaganyaan-1 program launch a flight test before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-indias-gaganyaan-1-program-launch-a-flight-test-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.472210Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.703581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34941, "title": "Will India's Gaganyaan-1 program launch a flight test before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.472210Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:52:54.133399Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Why human-rated LVM3 will be crucial for Gaganyaan mission](https://www.theweek.in/news/sci-tech/2024/12/19/why-human-rated-lvm3-will-be-crucial-for-gaganyaan-mission.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [Gaganyaan-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaganyaan-1) launches a rocket before April 1, 2025", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question \"launch\" [is defined](https://science.nasa.gov/learn/basics-of-space-flight/chapter14-1/) using the following from Nasa: \"The launch of a spacecraft comprises a period of powered flight during which the vehicle rises above Earth's atmosphere and accelerates at least to orbital velocity.\"", "post_id": 35474, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711517.794582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711517.794582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45399999999999996, 0.546 ], "means": [ 0.5104780525845191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7142914622705571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3595633596567203, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9854857445006392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4738171969601796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18396331465778554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0475692937982197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0469774090263115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -93.53348506824352, "peer_score": -1.4205976184715574, "coverage": 0.9770311408572726, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9770311408572726, "spot_peer_score": 20.375465284519834, "spot_baseline_score": -13.92357973711722, "baseline_archived_score": -93.53348506824352, "peer_archived_score": -1.4205976184715574, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.375465284519834, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -13.92357973711722 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Why human-rated LVM3 will be crucial for Gaganyaan mission](https://www.theweek.in/news/sci-tech/2024/12/19/why-human-rated-lvm3-will-be-crucial-for-gaganyaan-mission.html)" }, { "id": 35473, "title": "Will Australian aerospace company Gilmour Space Technologies launch a rocket before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-australian-aerospace-company-gilmour-space-technologies-launch-a-rocket-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.441973Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.287473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34940, "title": "Will Australian aerospace company Gilmour Space Technologies launch a rocket before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.441973Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:51:46.875414Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies): \"As of 13 January 2025, Gilmour is still waiting on a launch permit from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA).Following delays with regulatory approvals, Gilmour is targeting a prospective launch date in March 2025.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [Gilmour Space Technologies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies) launches a rocket before April 1, 2025", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question \"launch\" [is defined](https://science.nasa.gov/learn/basics-of-space-flight/chapter14-1/) using the following from Nasa: \"The launch of a spacecraft comprises a period of powered flight during which the vehicle rises above Earth's atmosphere and accelerates at least to orbital velocity.\"", "post_id": 35473, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711564.519867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.607 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711564.519867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.607 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.393, 0.607 ], "means": [ 0.5883782766833223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3857352587519224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7115479863265646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.6680626947052771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37665269342317054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7620622061103597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -42.51723594809726, "peer_score": 1.2566877658219198, "coverage": 0.9826362022426395, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9826362022426395, "spot_peer_score": 4.712969834474453, "spot_baseline_score": -34.739878240348055, "baseline_archived_score": -42.51723594809726, "peer_archived_score": 1.2566877658219198, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.712969834474453, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -34.739878240348055 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies): \"As of 13 January 2025, Gilmour is still waiting on a launch permit from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA).Following delays with regulatory approvals, Gilmour is targeting a prospective launch date in March 2025.\"" }, { "id": 35472, "title": "Will SpaceX's Fram2 mission launch before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacexs-fram2-mission-launch-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.411816Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.910275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34939, "title": "Will SpaceX's Fram2 mission launch before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.411816Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:38:09.314749Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX to launch privately-financed international crew of four around Earth’s poles](https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/08/12/spacex-to-launch-privately-financed-international-crew-of-four-around-earths-poles/) At the time of this question the mission is tentatively [scheduled](https://www.space.com/32286-space-calendar.html) for March 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if SpaceX's [Fram2 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fram2) launches before April 1, 2025?", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question \"launch\" [is defined](https://science.nasa.gov/learn/basics-of-space-flight/chapter14-1/) using the following from Nasa: \"The launch of a spacecraft comprises a period of powered flight during which the vehicle rises above Earth's atmosphere and accelerates at least to orbital velocity.\"", "post_id": 35472, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711484.944952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711484.944952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6468672691489611 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8257092604317102, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 1.8389551441531455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 2.5347494837546893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.13240104426112295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1980754211405604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -113.10075543040897, "peer_score": -0.4920574188510592, "coverage": 0.9882107749912475, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9882107749912475, "spot_peer_score": 9.293286299144079, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -113.10075543040897, "peer_archived_score": -0.4920574188510592, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.293286299144079, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX to launch privately-financed international crew of four around Earth’s poles](https://spaceflightnow.com/2024/08/12/spacex-to-launch-privately-financed-international-crew-of-four-around-earths-poles/) At the time of this question the mission is tentatively [scheduled](https://www.space.com/32286-space-calendar.html) for March 2025." }, { "id": 35471, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-go-up-in-march-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.380498Z", "published_at": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.847286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:27:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34938, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.380498Z", "open_time": "2025-02-28T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:29:51.323256Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of March 2025 is higher than that of the final trading day of February 2025.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 35471, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740711456.395732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.655 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740711456.395732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.655 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5863038734250353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07706906309393233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1511868377135775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 2.381161409814147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1533708253730062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 2.2864193726499784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 1.3058504572027163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.225337133172673, "peer_score": -5.66536814586668, "coverage": 0.9937024799982707, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9937024799982707, "spot_peer_score": -4.098778873282303, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -29.225337133172673, "peer_archived_score": -5.66536814586668, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.098778873282303, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Bogleheads investment resource site](https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/S%26P_500_index): \"The S&P 500 index is a market weighted index of 500 U.S. stocks, selected and monitored by Standard and Poors. The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. As of 2020 it comprises about 80% of the U.S. market capitalization of stocks.\"" }, { "id": 35469, "title": "Will Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams return to Earth before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-butch-wilmore-and-suni-williams-return-to-earth-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.000178Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.528890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34936, "title": "Will Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams return to Earth before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:11.000178Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:27:32.327492Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "['Stranded' Starliner astronauts finally have a return date — and it's sooner than expected](https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/stranded-starliner-astronauts-finally-have-a-return-date-and-its-sooner-than-expected)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface before April 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut. The question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. Both astronauts do not need to return to Earth at the same time. \"Earth's surface\" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.", "post_id": 35469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740628041.552798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.868 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740628041.552798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.868 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7783272620892391 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9668952153176444, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 2.505034429671179, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.35134591379891544, 0.45529495594735647, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5865029031872515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.81020344918011, "peer_score": 5.476105479637399, "coverage": 0.9558373394277361, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9558373394277361, "spot_peer_score": 8.056689366327936, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.81020344918011, "peer_archived_score": 5.476105479637399, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.056689366327936, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "['Stranded' Starliner astronauts finally have a return date — and it's sooner than expected](https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/stranded-starliner-astronauts-finally-have-a-return-date-and-its-sooner-than-expected)" }, { "id": 35468, "title": "Will Serbia announce a general election before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-serbia-announce-a-general-election-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.967517Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.652700Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34935, "title": "Will Serbia announce a general election before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.967517Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:25:26.311492Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Serbian president hints at snap election after prime minister quits amid protests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbias-pm-resign-popular-protests-persist-tanjug-news-agency-2025-01-28/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a specific date on which a general election will be held is officially announced by the government of Serbia or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before April 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 35468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740627969.986714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740627969.986714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5709846948893453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.835396426672151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6244325303790983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16963114878242336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1074990758842123, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8808711198511896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7636143046006238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.01449808615809, "peer_score": 17.67748316288487, "coverage": 0.9574751622147031, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9574751622147031, "spot_peer_score": -12.881094172171572, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -9.01449808615809, "peer_archived_score": 17.67748316288487, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.881094172171572, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Serbian president hints at snap election after prime minister quits amid protests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/serbias-pm-resign-popular-protests-persist-tanjug-news-agency-2025-01-28/)" }, { "id": 35467, "title": "Will Bangaladesh announce a general election before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bangaladesh-announce-a-general-election-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.936874Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.735852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34934, "title": "Will Bangaladesh announce a general election before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.936874Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T18:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T18:24:14.354021Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Election uncertainty continues in Bangladesh amid contradictory statements from interim government](https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/02/13/election-uncertainty-continues-in-bangladesh-amid-contradictory-statements-from-interim-government/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a specific date on which a general election will be held is officially announced by the government of Bangladesh or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before April 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 35467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740628210.806864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740628210.806864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2099818094901138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8418685522401064, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.7893412936301663, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6578640736127837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7290363519199055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2943957122701244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36616004267400293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.08626461721668, "peer_score": 17.625469382080464, "coverage": 0.9620144261254205, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9620144261254205, "spot_peer_score": 16.926810484361027, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 71.08626461721668, "peer_archived_score": 17.625469382080464, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.926810484361027, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Election uncertainty continues in Bangladesh amid contradictory statements from interim government](https://peoplesdispatch.org/2025/02/13/election-uncertainty-continues-in-bangladesh-amid-contradictory-statements-from-interim-government/)" }, { "id": 35466, "title": "Will Canada announce a federal election before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-canada-announce-a-federal-election-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.904884Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.975426Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34933, "title": "Will Canada announce a federal election before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.904884Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:57:05.354212Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Is Canada Set for a Snap Election?](https://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/is-canada-set-for-a-snap-election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a specific date on which a federal election will be held is officially announced by the government of Canada or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before April 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 35466, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740627814.746942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42000000000000004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740627814.746942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42000000000000004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3505287273861606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041975268833299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.435508827352813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7942422980859573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991433476313437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.413772890192763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.734244244428476, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9636865174955298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4142346398186834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -45.77842930177318, "peer_score": 1.7785635843827121, "coverage": 0.9674526980850433, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9674526980850433, "spot_peer_score": 4.705154528205722, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -45.77842930177318, "peer_archived_score": 1.7785635843827121, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.705154528205722, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Is Canada Set for a Snap Election?](https://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/is-canada-set-for-a-snap-election)" }, { "id": 35465, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ukr announce a presidential election by April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ukr announce a presidential election by April 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ukr-announce-a-presidential-election-by-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.567737Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.173925Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34932, "title": "Will Ukraine announce a presidential election before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.567737Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:58:13.369608Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a specific date on which a presidential election will be held is officially announced by the government of Ukraine or any of its agencies that have the authority to do so. If no such announcement occurs before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "The election does not have to be held before April 1, 2025; this question resolves based on an announcement.", "post_id": 35465, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740628595.57756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740628595.57756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10865913325857715 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1209877223681803, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2060292525659477, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 2.7847574516059685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178406755266394, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.237746121341038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.73923447433626, "peer_score": 9.394710975194009, "coverage": 0.9726355194383198, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9726355194383198, "spot_peer_score": 4.729084616175535, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 81.73923447433626, "peer_archived_score": 9.394710975194009, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.729084616175535, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Next Ukrainian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 35464, "title": "Will Cathy Harris still be listed as chairing the Merit Systems Protection Board on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cathy-harris-still-be-listed-as-chairing-the-merit-systems-protection-board-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.535384Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.408713Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:39:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34931, "title": "Will Cathy Harris still be listed as chairing the Merit Systems Protection Board on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.535384Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:39:56.784889Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Hill: [Federal judge reinstates employee appeals board member fired by Trump](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5151616-federal-judge-orders-reinstatement-of-merit-systems-protection-board-member/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cathy A. Harris is listed as chairman of the board or equivalent (as she is listed on February 18, 2025) of the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB) at [this link](https://www.mspb.gov/about/members.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025 when accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35464, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740627816.834637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7949999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740627816.834637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7949999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.806637044027945 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0685277479908928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8877074779046794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.7974452444684191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 3.3261172177886613, 0.3896433300039505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1934971432453263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -161.979195582158, "peer_score": -13.751674196413289, "coverage": 0.9776662535799876, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9776662535799876, "spot_peer_score": -20.306798186930763, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -161.979195582158, "peer_archived_score": -13.751674196413289, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.306798186930763, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Hill: [Federal judge reinstates employee appeals board member fired by Trump](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5151616-federal-judge-orders-reinstatement-of-merit-systems-protection-board-member/)" } ] }
