Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=980
{ "count": 6301, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=960", "results": [ { "id": 37508, "title": "Will the number of new single family homes for sale in the US exceed 550 thousand in May 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-new-single-family-homes-for-sale-in-the-us-exceed-550-thousand-in-may-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.707777Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.696636Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T15:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36868, "title": "Will the number of new single family homes for sale in the US exceed 550 thousand in May 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.707777Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-25T15:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-25T15:24:05.030619Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Kobeissi Letter](https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1912142359577403619): \"BREAKING: The number of new single-family homes for sale has surged to 500,000 in February, the highest since November 2007.\n\nThe number of new homes on the market has more than TRIPLED over the last 13 years, from a low of 142,000.\n\nExcluding the 2006 housing bubble this is, by far, the largest supply of new homes in history.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of New One Family Homes for Sale in the United States reported for May 2025 is greater than 550 thousand, according to what is presented by [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HNFSEPUSSA).", "fine_print": "Ensure units is set to \"Thousands of Units, Seasonally Adjusted\" and frequency is set to \"Monthly, End of Month\". Question resolves based on the number presented by FRED, and no other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 37508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746719806.42673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746719806.42673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.003219056101888223 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.040278631644, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.21998093281873, "peer_score": 0.0719085057223127, "coverage": 0.9551811361829439, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9551811361829439, "spot_peer_score": 0.1006542412689481, "spot_baseline_score": 99.71117206751734, "baseline_archived_score": 95.21998093281873, "peer_archived_score": 0.0719085057223127, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.1006542412689481, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 99.71117206751734 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Kobeissi Letter](https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1912142359577403619): \"BREAKING: The number of new single-family homes for sale has surged to 500,000 in February, the highest since November 2007.\n\nThe number of new homes on the market has more than TRIPLED over the last 13 years, from a low of 142,000.\n\nExcluding the 2006 housing bubble this is, by far, the largest supply of new homes in history.\"" }, { "id": 37507, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.700971Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.264362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36867, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.700971Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T14:34:26.929958Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beyond Meat has had several years of losses and in the most recent quarter it [posted](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial) a loss from operations of almost $38 million.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37507, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746690409.296174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746690409.296174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.008268837820560754 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.736532578502386, 2.914696516263355, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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[posted](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial) a loss from operations of almost $38 million." }, { "id": 37506, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-global-protest-tracker-report-any-protests-in-turkey-turkiye-with-10000-participants-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.570260Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.301654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark 2025 Q2", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T16:42:12.805854Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36866, "title": "Will the Global Protest Tracker report any protests in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.570260Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T14:36:18.380132Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [2025 Turkish protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_protests)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Please note that the Global Protest Tracker uses the name Türkiye in its database.", "post_id": 37506, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746639461.950091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746639461.950091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.956, 0.044 ], "means": [ 0.03611956951053597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.664386121578093, 0.7161608149020564, 0.5965892957781368, 1.6670903674842918, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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An example of a bill that would count is [HB 831](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/831). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution.", "post_id": 37501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746496557.195926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746496557.195926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.023757824336211302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4278128591948034, 1.7331407926415778, 0.49027544292935926, 1.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 62.525681333433376, "peer_score": 1.4671035695281158, "coverage": 0.7355523556828499, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7355523556828499, "spot_peer_score": 0.4063618000494141, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 62.525681333433376, "peer_archived_score": 1.4671035695281158, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.4063618000494141, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tallahassee Democrat: [Florida may require proof of citizenship to vote under new legislation echoing Trump](https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/local/state/2025/04/02/got-id-proof-of-citizenship-may-soon-be-needed-to-vote-in-florida/82756919007/)" }, { "id": 37500, "title": "Will 300 or more UN staff be reported to be killed in Gaza according to UN's OCHA in its final impact snapshot before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will 300+ UN Gaza staff be reported killed per UN's OCHA in snapshot by 7/1/25?", "url_title": "Will 300+ UN Gaza staff be reported killed per UN's OCHA in snapshot by 7/1/25?", "slug": "will-300-un-gaza-staff-be-reported-killed-per-uns-ocha-in-snapshot-by-7125", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.383359Z", "published_at": "2025-05-03T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.321684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T10:42:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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For example, a snapshot dated April 30, 2025, [reports](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/reported-impact-snapshot-gaza-strip-30-april-2025) 295 UN staff fatalities.", "fine_print": "If OCHA stops posting new updates, this resolves as the most recent number, which as of the time of this question would be the impact snapshot posted on April 30, 2025.", "post_id": 37500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746471655.525774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.876 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746471655.525774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.876 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8818081894555622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0289337933218743, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 2.263570422870201, 0.5965892957781368, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.381743516393815, "peer_score": 0.5947182655435196, "coverage": 0.5256397526449628, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.5256397526449628, "spot_peer_score": 2.5252869592768263, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 28.381743516393815, "peer_archived_score": 0.5947182655435196, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5252869592768263, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "See accompanying Humanitarian update [here](https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-284-gaza-strip)." }, { "id": 37499, "title": "Will AquaBounty Technologies file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-aquabounty-technologies-file-for-bankruptcy-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:30:25.377095Z", "published_at": "2025-05-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.042133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T15:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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An example of a bill that would count is [Senate Bill 153](https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb153). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. Please note that under Ohio law, a bill is considered enacted \"after both houses have passed and agreed on identical bills.\" ([Source](https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/chapter-5-enacting-legislation-10021971.pdf))", "post_id": 37497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746446326.713034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746446326.713034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16235224792872596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 1.3127501106801933, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 1.042303061899041, 1.2462571355730265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.19406739721933, "peer_score": -0.7677362810054127, "coverage": 0.9439397159390981, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9439397159390981, "spot_peer_score": -0.03115020280809257, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 65.19406739721933, "peer_archived_score": -0.7677362810054127, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.03115020280809257, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote)" }, { "id": 37478, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-indian-armed-forces-execute-a-kinetic-attack-in-pakistan-proper-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.076105Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.907872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-13T12:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Non-kinetic actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 37478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746797572.338358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746797572.338358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6223034110885678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06601997791471219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3209730228171763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1021196156523678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05223036182808179, 0.8909449659417962, 0.7596834809085393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.765713632902226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4231739162326067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.535409599657501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2098594291784695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02195372606413221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.8404698975017634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.495694397173727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29098512977860935, 0.0, 1.709668734601411, 0.37838949846270586, 0.02681541491327862, 0.2720962540814778, 0.0, 0.5700000016773531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2172556451009013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3321977744619591, 0.2251860735733587, 0.0, 1.7925366622054262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8914985678105558, 0.8708725046601462, 0.17946090628082964, 0.0, 0.6984448737050883 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "France 24: [India, Pakistan exchange gunfire for second day as relations plummet after attack](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250426-indian-army-says-new-exchange-of-gunfire-with-pakistan)" }, { "id": 37477, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-word-tariffs-disappear-from-the-front-print-pages-of-the-new-york-times-and-wall-street-journal-by-june-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.070353Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.565635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:49:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36837, "title": "Will the word \"tariff(s)\" disappear from the front print pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal by June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.070353Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T17:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T17:54:59.477128Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, after \\[OPEN DATE] and before June 1, 2025, the words, \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\", do not appear on the print front page of The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question:\n\n* The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper)\n* Wall Street Journal:\t [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250414/frontpage)\n\n***\n\n<sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for April 14, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup>", "fine_print": "Grammar is not relevant (e.g. \"TARIFF\" will suffice to prevent a \"No\" resolution).\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\n\n\"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, it does not have to be in a title.", "post_id": 37477, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746786620.730806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18248175182481757 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746786620.730806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18248175182481757 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19001140288695442 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1771314995648305, 0.14435670794403951, 0.7925366622054263, 0.0, 0.43007743157759487, 2.938254956488732, 0.7470313596766492, 0.06070567431515629, 0.0, 0.0, 3.980071079511151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8909449659417962, 0.0, 1.7380865405310977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015999109858631472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3064043000739063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23747616990092357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07781789323204355, 0.0, 0.20672425844473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006900644262869463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06879719716150491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46266801304175437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3321977744619591, 0.16702785955340174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.4452407133484, "peer_score": 19.842952350888847, "coverage": 0.985958937075403, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.985958937075403, "spot_peer_score": 19.827835658050624, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 75.4452407133484, "peer_archived_score": 19.842952350888847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.827835658050624, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's renewed love for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\n\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. When, if ever, will we seen tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 37476, "title": "Will GoPro file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-gopro-file-for-bankruptcy-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.059984Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.308885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2025 Q2", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36836, "title": "Will GoPro file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:38.059984Z", "open_time": "2025-05-09T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:13:44.399049Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-09T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[GoPro Announces Fourth Quarter and 2024 Results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500435/000150043525000003/gpro2024-12x31exh991xer.htm)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if GoPro, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before July 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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World Cup with the President of the International Traditional Karate Federation](https://www.vetogate.com/5400045)" }, { "id": 37467, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.700063Z", "published_at": "2025-05-08T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.858097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T14:33:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", 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The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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