Adjacent

6 Followers

18 Questions

Moderated by lucaskohorst

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

2 forecasters

Which of the following California oil refineries will first announce the intent to idle, restructure, or cease operations before 2028?

Valero (Wilmington)50%

Chevron (Richmond)9%

PBF Energy (Martinez)9%

2 comments

3 forecasters

Who will Trump nominate as next Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton25.9%

Larry Kudlow25.1%

Kevin Hassett18.8%

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?

20%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

2 comments

19 forecasters

Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?

45%chance

8% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

24 forecasters

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

56%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

15 forecasters

Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?

60%chance

1 comment

6 forecasters

Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?

3%chance

1 comment

4 forecasters

What will the highest level of Bitcoin dominance be in 2025?

65% to 67.9%74%

68% to 69.9%19%

70% or higher6.8%

1 comment

4 forecasters

Will one of the top 5 largest hedge funds in the U.S. experience a financial blow up in 2025?

1%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

5 comments

6 forecasters

When will Polymarket launch a token?

Current estimate

28 Feb 2026