Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can make remarkably accurate predictions of the probability of future events. Enabling this capacity is the aim of Metaculus.
What makes us different?
- We are a reputation-based online community of experienced forecasters and new learners.
- Metaculus brings together a highly engaged network of thousands of forecasters.
- Our proprietary aggregation engine is the basis of our established forecasting track record, which has been publicly available since 2015.
- Unlike traditional prediction markets, incentives and scoring rules on the Metaculus platform are aligned for accuracy in the long-term.
How does Metaculus generate accurate forecasts?
The human mind is an incredible engine for forecasting. But the world is complex, and many predictions are hard to make. Science has developed largely to fill this gap, making stunning predictions about systems that can be accurately modeled mathematically or numerically using theoretical constructs, but there are times when it still cannot predict the behavior of complex systems.
It is often assumed that events within such systems are simply unpredictable. But they aren’t. Of all the numerical ranges that Metaculus has forecast, 94% were more accurate than random guessing. You can see the Metaculus track record across all questions since 2015.