Harvard's AI Safety Student Team
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15 Questions
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9 forecasters
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025, in USD billions?
Latest estimate
18.2
This question is closed for forecasting.
1 comment
16 forecasters
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
0.933 score
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10 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
41%chance
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6 forecasters
How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?
71%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
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10 forecasters
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
72.5
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
10 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
81.2
This question is closed for forecasting.
0 comments
10 forecasters
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
1.45
This question is closed for forecasting.
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10 forecasters
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
94.2
This question is closed for forecasting.
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9 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
76.4
This question is closed for forecasting.