Contributed by the Harvard's AI Safety Student Team community.
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10 forecasters
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Latest estimate
1.45
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2025
Closed:Feb 17, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 17, 2025
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
30 Jul 2027
(28 Oct 2026 - 17 Sep 2028)
30 Jul 2027
(28 Oct 2026 - 17 Sep 2028)
50 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
50.1%
(39 - 61.1)
50.1%
(39 - 61.1)
60 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
96.9%
(92.6 - 98.8)
11 forecasters