How many papers will George Em Karniadakis have published in the year 2025 by May 1, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?

Resolved:32 papers

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Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

27.8 papers

(23.5 papers - 31.6 papers)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50
community	23.47	27.79	31.59	0.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	23.47	—
median	27.79	—
upper 75%	31.59	—
Upper bound
>50	0.3%	—

What was the final result?32 papers

Community Peer Score

48.3

Community Baseline Score

41.1

Authors:

noah_h_kim

Opened:

Mar 15, 2025

Closes:

Mar 15, 2025

Resolved:

May 16, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 15, 2025

Brown Forecasting Tournament

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

74%

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

4.66M

How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates?

3.38M

Authors:

noah_h_kim

Opened:

Mar 15, 2025

Closes:

Mar 15, 2025

Resolved:

May 16, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 15, 2025

Brown Forecasting Tournament

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

74%

How many scientific journal articles will be published in the following years?

4.66M

How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates?

3.38M