Contributed by the Brown Forecasting Tournament community.
Question
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters14
Community Prediction
13%
(0.1% - 20%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
15.2
Community Baseline Score
70.1
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:May 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
15%
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?
68%
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:May 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
15%
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?
68%