Contributed by the Brown Forecasting Tournament community.

Question

Will a large language model (LLM) solve ≥ 40% of FrontierMath questions before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?

Resolved:No
Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction
18%
(0.1% - 32%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 18%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
2.9
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Resolves:May 16, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 15, 2025