M
/
Questions
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival
Follow
10
Followers
7
Questions
Moderated by
baileysellers8
Open Leaderboard
Scoring Terminology
1
comment
16
forecasters
Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?
result
Yes
2
comments
17
forecasters
Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?
result
No
0
comments
17
forecasters
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?
16%
chance
4.5%
this week
1
comment
17
forecasters
Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?
70%
chance
0
comments
17
forecasters
Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?
75%
chance
0
comments
16
forecasters
Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?
74%
chance
0
comments
17
forecasters
Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?
24%
chance
