Will another Oriental fruit fly be found in New Zealand in January 2025

Resolved:No

no comments0

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

26.8

Community Peer Score

10.1

Authors:

tco55

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 31, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2025

FIEC675 Prediction Tournament #2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

38%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Authors:

tco55

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 31, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 5, 2025

FIEC675 Prediction Tournament #2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

38%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%