JetBrains

11 Followers

13 Questions

Moderated by ilia.zaharov

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3 forecasters

For these benchmarks, what percentage of problems do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

AI2 Reasoning Challenge97.9

Toloka's µ-MATH94.1

Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A90.8

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5 forecasters

Will any coding tool publicly introduce integration with brain-computer interface (BCI) technology by December 15, 2025?

1%chance

5% this week

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9 forecasters

What percentage of developers will agree with the statement that local or offline AI tools are unlikely to reach the quality and performance of cloud-based solutions in 2025?

Current estimate

68.3%

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2 forecasters

What percentage of problems from Long Code Arena do you estimate the top-performing AI model or agent will be able to solve by December'25?

Commit message generation99.6

Module summarization99.5

Library-based code generation97.4

2 comments

8 forecasters

What percentage of developers will agree with the statement that AI will eventually take over the coding process, fully replacing human developers in 2025?

Current estimate

38.2%

1 comment

7 forecasters

What percentage of developers in 2025 will have a concern that the adoption of AI coding will decrease the demand for professional software developers?

Current estimate

71.2%

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7 forecasters

What percentage of developers will be ready to use cloud-based generative AI services for work tasks in 2025?

Current estimate

79.7%

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6 forecasters

What percentage of developers would claim to have ethical concerns about using generative AI services in 2025?

Current estimate

40.8%

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will any coding tool publicly introduce proactive automation features for repetitive tasks by December 15, 2025?

93%chance

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7 forecasters

Will any coding assistant introduce a proactive optimization feature by December 15, 2025?

99.9%chance