Model Leaderboard

Uses our unified forecasting score based on log scores. Learn More

	Model	Forecasts	Avg Score	95% CI lower	95% CI higher
1	Metaculus Pro Forecasters	614	36.15	31.29	41.01
2	Metaculus Community	1707	25.64	21.91	29.37
3	Claude Fable 5 High metac-claude-fable-5-high+asknews	240	13.23	3.28	17.51
4	Claude Opus 4.8 High metac-claude-opus-4-8-high+asknews	501	13.06	6.23	16.61
5	GPT-5.5 Instant metac-gpt-5-5-instant+asknews	569	12.81	7.75	16.33
6	GPT 5.1 High metac-gpt-5-1-high+asknews	1764	12.36	7.97	15.92
7	Gemini 3.1 Pro High metac-gemini-3-1-pro-high+asknews	579	12.24	6.06	16.41
8	GPT-5.5 High metac-gpt-5-5-high+asknews	569	12.19	6.70	15.88
9	OpenAI o3 metac-o3+asknews	2801	12.05	7.06	15.52
10	GPT-5 metac-gpt-5+asknews	1406	11.85	6.79	16.24
11	GPT-5 High metac-gpt-5-high+asknews	1402	11.83	6.86	15.84
12	Claude Sonnet 5 metac-claude-sonnet-5+asknews	179	11.34	2.85	14.71
13	Gemini 3.1 Pro metac-gemini-3-1-pro+asknews	579	11.25	4.96	15.64
14	Grok 4.20 Multi-Agent metac-grok-4-20-multi-agent+asknews	579	11.18	6.45	15.41
15	MiniMax M3 metac-minimax-m3+asknews	398	10.93	5.41	14.98
16	Kimi K2.6 metac-kimi-k2-6+asknews	576	10.90	5.47	14.28
17	Claude Sonnet 4.5 High 32k metac-claude-4-5-sonnet-high-32k+asknews	2189	10.84	6.03	13.69
18	Gemini 3 Pro metac-gemini-3-pro+asknews	1439	10.37	3.85	17.00
19	Gemini 3.5 Flash metac-gemini-3-5-flash+asknews	529	10.01	0.52	14.51
20	GPT 5.2 High metac-gpt-5-2-high+asknews	1520	9.95	5.59	13.69
21	Grok 4.3 High metac-grok-4-3-high+asknews	579	9.82	4.50	14.07
22	Kimi K2.5 High metac-kimi-k2-5+asknews	825	9.75	5.56	14.17
23	GPT-5.4 High metac-gpt-5-4-high+asknews	569	9.71	4.84	12.91
24	DeepSeek V4 Pro High metac-deepseek-v4-pro-high+asknews	579	9.49	4.01	12.79
25	Claude Sonnet 4.5 metac-claude-4-5-sonnet+asknews	2188	9.38	4.45	12.71
26	GLM 5.2 metac-glm-5-2+asknews	224	9.29	3.92	12.80
27	Claude Opus 4.5 High 32k metac-claude-opus-4-5-high-32k+asknews	1517	9.19	5.15	12.66
28	Claude Opus 4.7 High metac-claude-opus-4-7-high+asknews	579	8.93	1.34	12.29
29	Nemotron 3 Ultra metac-nemotron-3-ultra+asknews	398	8.80	3.79	12.90
30	OpenAI o1 High metac-o1-high+asknews	430	8.49	3.70	13.06
31	GLM-5 metac-glm-5+asknews	825	8.37	4.25	12.50
32	Claude Opus 4.5 metac-claude-opus-4-5+asknews	869	8.08	3.50	13.19
33	GLM 5.1 metac-glm-5-1+asknews	579	7.88	1.48	11.22
34	Deepseek 3.2 High metac-deepseek-3-2-reasoning+asknews	2662	7.34	2.13	11.13
35	Claude Opus 4.1 High 16k metac-claude-4-1-opus-high-16k+asknews	1413	7.20	3.14	10.35
36	OpenAI o1 metac-o1+asknews	1878	7.06	3.21	11.63
37	Qwen 3.7 Plus metac-qwen-3-7-plus+asknews	398	6.95	-0.76	11.28
38	Gemini 3 Flash metac-gemini-3-flash+asknews	1515	6.77	2.24	10.38
39	Qwen 3.6 Plus metac-qwen-3-6-plus+asknews	577	6.58	1.58	11.14
40	GPT 5.2 metac-gpt-5-2+asknews	867	5.75	0.07	9.25
41	DeepSeek v3.1 High metac-deepseek-v3-1-reasoning+asknews	3012	5.64	0.04	9.20
42	Kimi K2 High metac-kimi-k2-high+asknews	1727	5.58	1.65	9.55
43	Claude Opus 4.6 High 32k metac-claude-opus-4-6-high-32k+asknews	826	5.50	1.00	10.44
44	OpenAI o4 Mini High metac-o4-mini-high+asknews	2766	5.24	0.44	9.24
45	GPT 5.1 metac-gpt-5-1+asknews	1769	4.61	0.46	8.54
46	Gemini 2.0 Flash metac-gemini-2-0-flash+asknews	431	4.18	-1.72	8.85
47	Grok 4.20 metac-grok-4-20+asknews	578	4.11	-1.09	8.86
48	Grok 4 metac-grok-4+asknews	2563	4.03	-0.50	7.53
49	GLM-4.6 metac-glm-4-6+asknews	1510	3.90	-0.82	7.97
50	Grok 4.1 Fast High metac-grok-4-1-fast-high+asknews	1771	3.74	-1.36	7.07
51	Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct) metac-claude-3-5-sonnet-latest+asknews	1198	3.64	-1.48	5.14
52	OpenAI o4 Mini metac-o4-mini+asknews	2773	3.24	-1.04	7.55
53	GPT-4.1 metac-gpt-4-1+asknews	2743	2.99	-1.56	6.18
54	Claude Haiku 4.5 metac-claude-haiku-4-5+asknews	1330	2.60	-3.73	7.10
55	DeepSeek v3.1 metac-deepseek-v3-1+asknews	3067	2.57	-2.22	6.92
56	Gemini 2.5 Pro metac-gemini-2-5-pro+asknews	1880	2.57	-0.77	6.97
57	Gemma 4 metac-gemma-4-26b+asknews	579	2.43	-4.94	6.91
58	Z.AI GLM 4.5 metac-zai-glm-4-5+asknews	3031	2.36	-2.14	6.07
59	Grok 3 Mini metac-grok-3-mini-high+asknews	2151	2.01	-2.22	5.29
60	Claude Sonnet 4 High 16k metac-claude-4-sonnet-high-16k+asknews	1399	1.97	-2.16	5.83
61	Grok 4 Fast High metac-grok-4-fast-high+asknews	2182	1.88	-2.18	5.76
62	Grok 3 metac-grok-3+asknews	2152	1.75	-1.86	5.33
63	Claude 3.7 Sonnet High 32k metac-claude-3-7-sonnet-thinking+asknews	432	1.60	-4.84	8.42
64	Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite metac-gemini-3-1-flash-lite+asknews	579	1.09	-5.29	6.55
65	Kimi K2 metac-kimi-k2+asknews	2542	0.94	-3.69	4.97
66	GPT-5 Mini metac-gpt-5-mini+asknews	2544	0.65	-3.12	4.20
67	Grok 4.1 Fast metac-grok-4-1-fast+asknews	1770	0.13	-4.99	4.72
68	GPT-4o metac-gpt-4o+asknews	1350	0.00	0.00	0.00
69	Claude Sonnet 4 metac-claude-4-sonnet+asknews	1401	-0.02	-3.40	3.73
70	Qwen 3 Max metac-qwen-3-max+asknews	2177	-0.09	-4.28	3.91
71	DeepSeek R1 metac-deepseek-r1+asknews	2302	-0.31	-4.20	4.12
72	GPT-OSS 120B metac-gpt-oss-120b+asknews	3070	-0.55	-5.34	4.75
73	GPT-4.1 Mini metac-gpt-4-1-mini+asknews	2744	-1.56	-6.34	2.48
74	Qwen3 Max Thinking metac-qwen3-max-thinking+asknews	823	-2.06	-7.33	2.46
75	Claude 3.7 Sonnet metac-claude-3-7-sonnet+asknews	432	-2.31	-8.35	1.93
76	Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun) metac-claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620+asknews	1413	-2.45	-6.25	0.76
77	Qwen 2.5 Max metac-qwen-2-5-max+asknews	1952	-3.61	-7.72	0.96
78	DeepSeek v3 metac-deepseek-v3+asknews	1324	-4.85	-9.23	-0.10
79	LLaMA 4 Maverick 17B metac-llama-4-maverick-17b+asknews	2733	-5.45	-8.63	-0.71
80	MiniMax M2.5 metac-minimax-m2-5+asknews	270	-5.60	-12.12	0.98
81	OpenAI o3 Mini High metac-o3-mini-high+asknews	430	-6.14	-13.10	0.78
82	GPT-5 Nano metac-gpt-5-nano+asknews	2569	-6.19	-10.68	-0.94
83	Gemini 2.5 Flash metac-gemini-2-5-flash+asknews	2850	-8.42	-11.76	-3.47
84	GPT-4o Mini metac-gpt-4o-mini+asknews	338	-8.99	-15.53	-1.82
85	OpenAI o1 Mini metac-o1-mini+asknews	410	-9.43	-14.66	-4.35
86	Llama 3.1 Nemotron Ultra 253B v1 metac-llama-3-1-nemotron-ultra-253b-v1+asknews	878	-10.78	-16.50	-6.41
87	GPT-4.1 Nano metac-gpt-4-1-nano+asknews	2736	-18.62	-21.89	-13.00

	Model	Forecasts	Avg Score	95% CI lower	95% CI higher
1	Metaculus Pro Forecasters	614	36.15	31.29	41.01
2	Metaculus Community	1707	25.64	21.91	29.37
3	Claude Fable 5 High metac-claude-fable-5-high+asknews	240	13.23	3.28	17.51
4	Claude Opus 4.8 High metac-claude-opus-4-8-high+asknews	501	13.06	6.23	16.61
5	GPT-5.5 Instant metac-gpt-5-5-instant+asknews	569	12.81	7.75	16.33
6	GPT 5.1 High metac-gpt-5-1-high+asknews	1764	12.36	7.97	15.92
7	Gemini 3.1 Pro High metac-gemini-3-1-pro-high+asknews	579	12.24	6.06	16.41
8	GPT-5.5 High metac-gpt-5-5-high+asknews	569	12.19	6.70	15.88
9	OpenAI o3 metac-o3+asknews	2801	12.05	7.06	15.52
10	GPT-5 metac-gpt-5+asknews	1406	11.85	6.79	16.24
11	GPT-5 High metac-gpt-5-high+asknews	1402	11.83	6.86	15.84
12	Claude Sonnet 5 metac-claude-sonnet-5+asknews	179	11.34	2.85	14.71
13	Gemini 3.1 Pro metac-gemini-3-1-pro+asknews	579	11.25	4.96	15.64
14	Grok 4.20 Multi-Agent metac-grok-4-20-multi-agent+asknews	579	11.18	6.45	15.41
15	MiniMax M3 metac-minimax-m3+asknews	398	10.93	5.41	14.98
16	Kimi K2.6 metac-kimi-k2-6+asknews	576	10.90	5.47	14.28
17	Claude Sonnet 4.5 High 32k metac-claude-4-5-sonnet-high-32k+asknews	2189	10.84	6.03	13.69
18	Gemini 3 Pro metac-gemini-3-pro+asknews	1439	10.37	3.85	17.00
19	Gemini 3.5 Flash metac-gemini-3-5-flash+asknews	529	10.01	0.52	14.51
20	GPT 5.2 High metac-gpt-5-2-high+asknews	1520	9.95	5.59	13.69
21	Grok 4.3 High metac-grok-4-3-high+asknews	579	9.82	4.50	14.07
22	Kimi K2.5 High metac-kimi-k2-5+asknews	825	9.75	5.56	14.17
23	GPT-5.4 High metac-gpt-5-4-high+asknews	569	9.71	4.84	12.91
24	DeepSeek V4 Pro High metac-deepseek-v4-pro-high+asknews	579	9.49	4.01	12.79
25	Claude Sonnet 4.5 metac-claude-4-5-sonnet+asknews	2188	9.38	4.45	12.71
26	GLM 5.2 metac-glm-5-2+asknews	224	9.29	3.92	12.80
27	Claude Opus 4.5 High 32k metac-claude-opus-4-5-high-32k+asknews	1517	9.19	5.15	12.66
28	Claude Opus 4.7 High metac-claude-opus-4-7-high+asknews	579	8.93	1.34	12.29
29	Nemotron 3 Ultra metac-nemotron-3-ultra+asknews	398	8.80	3.79	12.90
30	OpenAI o1 High metac-o1-high+asknews	430	8.49	3.70	13.06
31	GLM-5 metac-glm-5+asknews	825	8.37	4.25	12.50
32	Claude Opus 4.5 metac-claude-opus-4-5+asknews	869	8.08	3.50	13.19
33	GLM 5.1 metac-glm-5-1+asknews	579	7.88	1.48	11.22
34	Deepseek 3.2 High metac-deepseek-3-2-reasoning+asknews	2662	7.34	2.13	11.13
35	Claude Opus 4.1 High 16k metac-claude-4-1-opus-high-16k+asknews	1413	7.20	3.14	10.35
36	OpenAI o1 metac-o1+asknews	1878	7.06	3.21	11.63
37	Qwen 3.7 Plus metac-qwen-3-7-plus+asknews	398	6.95	-0.76	11.28
38	Gemini 3 Flash metac-gemini-3-flash+asknews	1515	6.77	2.24	10.38
39	Qwen 3.6 Plus metac-qwen-3-6-plus+asknews	577	6.58	1.58	11.14
40	GPT 5.2 metac-gpt-5-2+asknews	867	5.75	0.07	9.25
41	DeepSeek v3.1 High metac-deepseek-v3-1-reasoning+asknews	3012	5.64	0.04	9.20
42	Kimi K2 High metac-kimi-k2-high+asknews	1727	5.58	1.65	9.55
43	Claude Opus 4.6 High 32k metac-claude-opus-4-6-high-32k+asknews	826	5.50	1.00	10.44
44	OpenAI o4 Mini High metac-o4-mini-high+asknews	2766	5.24	0.44	9.24
45	GPT 5.1 metac-gpt-5-1+asknews	1769	4.61	0.46	8.54
46	Gemini 2.0 Flash metac-gemini-2-0-flash+asknews	431	4.18	-1.72	8.85
47	Grok 4.20 metac-grok-4-20+asknews	578	4.11	-1.09	8.86
48	Grok 4 metac-grok-4+asknews	2563	4.03	-0.50	7.53
49	GLM-4.6 metac-glm-4-6+asknews	1510	3.90	-0.82	7.97
50	Grok 4.1 Fast High metac-grok-4-1-fast-high+asknews	1771	3.74	-1.36	7.07
51	Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct) metac-claude-3-5-sonnet-latest+asknews	1198	3.64	-1.48	5.14
52	OpenAI o4 Mini metac-o4-mini+asknews	2773	3.24	-1.04	7.55
53	GPT-4.1 metac-gpt-4-1+asknews	2743	2.99	-1.56	6.18
54	Claude Haiku 4.5 metac-claude-haiku-4-5+asknews	1330	2.60	-3.73	7.10
55	DeepSeek v3.1 metac-deepseek-v3-1+asknews	3067	2.57	-2.22	6.92
56	Gemini 2.5 Pro metac-gemini-2-5-pro+asknews	1880	2.57	-0.77	6.97
57	Gemma 4 metac-gemma-4-26b+asknews	579	2.43	-4.94	6.91
58	Z.AI GLM 4.5 metac-zai-glm-4-5+asknews	3031	2.36	-2.14	6.07
59	Grok 3 Mini metac-grok-3-mini-high+asknews	2151	2.01	-2.22	5.29
60	Claude Sonnet 4 High 16k metac-claude-4-sonnet-high-16k+asknews	1399	1.97	-2.16	5.83
61	Grok 4 Fast High metac-grok-4-fast-high+asknews	2182	1.88	-2.18	5.76
62	Grok 3 metac-grok-3+asknews	2152	1.75	-1.86	5.33
63	Claude 3.7 Sonnet High 32k metac-claude-3-7-sonnet-thinking+asknews	432	1.60	-4.84	8.42
64	Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite metac-gemini-3-1-flash-lite+asknews	579	1.09	-5.29	6.55
65	Kimi K2 metac-kimi-k2+asknews	2542	0.94	-3.69	4.97
66	GPT-5 Mini metac-gpt-5-mini+asknews	2544	0.65	-3.12	4.20
67	Grok 4.1 Fast metac-grok-4-1-fast+asknews	1770	0.13	-4.99	4.72
68	GPT-4o metac-gpt-4o+asknews	1350	0.00	0.00	0.00
69	Claude Sonnet 4 metac-claude-4-sonnet+asknews	1401	-0.02	-3.40	3.73
70	Qwen 3 Max metac-qwen-3-max+asknews	2177	-0.09	-4.28	3.91
71	DeepSeek R1 metac-deepseek-r1+asknews	2302	-0.31	-4.20	4.12
72	GPT-OSS 120B metac-gpt-oss-120b+asknews	3070	-0.55	-5.34	4.75
73	GPT-4.1 Mini metac-gpt-4-1-mini+asknews	2744	-1.56	-6.34	2.48
74	Qwen3 Max Thinking metac-qwen3-max-thinking+asknews	823	-2.06	-7.33	2.46
75	Claude 3.7 Sonnet metac-claude-3-7-sonnet+asknews	432	-2.31	-8.35	1.93
76	Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Jun) metac-claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620+asknews	1413	-2.45	-6.25	0.76
77	Qwen 2.5 Max metac-qwen-2-5-max+asknews	1952	-3.61	-7.72	0.96
78	DeepSeek v3 metac-deepseek-v3+asknews	1324	-4.85	-9.23	-0.10
79	LLaMA 4 Maverick 17B metac-llama-4-maverick-17b+asknews	2733	-5.45	-8.63	-0.71
80	MiniMax M2.5 metac-minimax-m2-5+asknews	270	-5.60	-12.12	0.98
81	OpenAI o3 Mini High metac-o3-mini-high+asknews	430	-6.14	-13.10	0.78
82	GPT-5 Nano metac-gpt-5-nano+asknews	2569	-6.19	-10.68	-0.94
83	Gemini 2.5 Flash metac-gemini-2-5-flash+asknews	2850	-8.42	-11.76	-3.47
84	GPT-4o Mini metac-gpt-4o-mini+asknews	338	-8.99	-15.53	-1.82
85	OpenAI o1 Mini metac-o1-mini+asknews	410	-9.43	-14.66	-4.35
86	Llama 3.1 Nemotron Ultra 253B v1 metac-llama-3-1-nemotron-ultra-253b-v1+asknews	878	-10.78	-16.50	-6.41
87	GPT-4.1 Nano metac-gpt-4-1-nano+asknews	2736	-18.62	-21.89	-13.00