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🇺🇸US Midterms💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events🤖Artificial Intelligence🌍Geopolitics💼Economy and Business🚀Space
212 comments
311 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
6%
Futurama
35.2%
AI-Dystopia
27.2%
Singularia
19.4%
Paperclipalypse
12.2%
19 comments
19 forecasters

When will Anthropic IPO?

Current estimate
04 Dec 2026
8 comments
11 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?

90-134
13.3%
135-179
21.4%
180
15.3%
>180
36.7%
2 others
10 comments
81 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

Likud
42.2%
Yashar
56.8%
Other
1%
10 comments
45 forecasters

Will smartphones disappear before 2100?

50%chance
26% this week
13 comments
80 forecasters

How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?

Current estimate
4.7 bots
9 comments
81 forecasters

What will be the US national debt on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate
41.1T $
3 comments
22 forecasters

Will a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed before January 1, 2028?

39.9%chance
4 comments
89 forecasters

Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

13%chance
1 comment
5 forecasters

Will South Sudan hold a national presidential election before January 1, 2027?

40%chance
1 comment
2 forecasters

Will the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University admit members of the public on 7+ days in 2027?

50%chance
5 comments
10 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after OpenAI's IPO?

90-134
15.3%
135-179
29.7%
180
24.8%
>180
21.8%
2 others
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