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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS Midterms๐Ÿ’ฅIran Warโš”๏ธMetaculus Cupโ“Top Questions๐Ÿ—ž๏ธCurrent Events๐Ÿค–Artificial Intelligence๐ŸŒGeopolitics๐Ÿ’ผEconomy and Business๐Ÿš€Space
40 comments
173 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
0.1%
1
89.7%
2
9.2%
3
0.9%
4+
0.1%
5 comments
27 forecasters

Will Spain hold a general election before May 23, 2027?

99.9%chance
49.9% this week
2 comments
38 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?

Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva
16%
Flรกvio Bolsonaro
84%
20 comments
82 forecasters

What will be the winning margin in Brazilโ€™s 2026 presidential election runoff?

Current estimate
3.82 Percentage points
3 comments
2 forecasters

When will ChatGPT Dots become available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers in the EEA?

Current estimate
24 Mar 2027
7 comments
73 forecasters

Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?

12%chance
7 comments
62 forecasters

What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?

Current estimate
335T tokens
2 comments
7 forecasters

Will Metaculus exist in 2050?

66%chance
10 comments
29 forecasters

Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?

1%chance
3 comments
76 forecasters

Will Josรฉ Mourinho still be the manager for Real Madrid on December 31, 2026?

90%chance
0 comments
13 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on Election Day 2026?

Current estimate
36.6%
20 comments
87 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Gary Marcus
40%
Miles Brundage
60%
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