12 comments
88 forecasters
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?
Fable Open, Mythos Open
Fable US-only, Mythos Open
Fable Closed, Mythos Open
Fable Open, Mythos Closed
42 comments
157 forecasters
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?
99.7%chance
39.7% this week
0 comments
45 forecasters
Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?
65%chance
5% this week
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will Poland's V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index fall below 0.65 for 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
3 comments
2 forecasters
Will France's V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index fall below 0.80 for 2026 or 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
3 comments
50 forecasters
Will the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool be fully repaired before September 2026?
33%chance
8% today
6 comments
42 forecasters
Will the United States provide written notices of withdrawal from the USMCA before September 2026?
10%chance
1 comment
7 forecasters
Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?
5%chance
45% this week
1 comment
6 forecasters
How many songs will Michael Jackson have on the Spotify Top 30 in the final full week of July?
Zero
One
Two
Three
More than three
10 comments
4 forecasters
Will a Ukranian attack cause a 30-day shutdown of a Russian oil refinery before 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
%chance
1 comment
37 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
France
Argentina
Spain
Brazil