2 comments
6 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
5%chance
1 comment
5 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
50%chance
4 comments
62 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?
Dario Amodei
Artificial Intelligence
Astronaut(s)
Mark Carney
8 others
2 comments
78 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
4 comments
47 forecasters
What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 8 hours
682 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Sep 2027
7 comments
83 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
2 comments
45 forecasters
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
2 comments
75 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
584 Cultural Sites
1 comment
50 forecasters
What first round vote share will José Maria Neves win in the 2026 Cape Verdean presidential election?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days