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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈUS MidtermsπŸ’₯Iran Warβš”οΈMetaculus Cup❓Top QuestionsπŸ—žοΈCurrent EventsπŸ€–Artificial Intelligence🌍GeopoliticsπŸ’ΌEconomy and BusinessπŸš€Space
669 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
06 Sep 2027
9 comments
79 forecasters

Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Other
1%
Labour Party
76%
Green Party
23%
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Manifold exist in 2050?

40%chance
2 comments
70 forecasters

What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate
247k Iranian Toman
2 comments
6 forecasters

Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?

40%chance
4 comments
70 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Harry Kane
59%
Kylian MbappΓ©
9%
Rodri
6%
Lamine Yamal
19%
3 others
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 become a reality before 2050?

0.1%chance
1 comment
9 forecasters

Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?

29%chance
6 comments
56 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

12%chance
38% this week
13 comments
110 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
59.5%
1
30.5%
2
7.5%
3
1.9%
4+
0.6%
23 comments
810 forecasters

Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

3%chance
17% this week
7 comments
21 forecasters

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

45%chance
33% this week
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