651 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Oct 2027
19 comments
24 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
80%chance
30% today
5 comments
69 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
36%chance
8 comments
22 forecasters
Will an AI "kill switch" bill pass both houses of the U.S. Congress before September 2027?
34%chance
16% today
8 comments
76 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
2 comments
6 forecasters
Will the 2026 World Cup deliver the predicted economic boost to US host cities?
39%chance
7 comments
22 forecasters
Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?
90%chance
6% today
1 comment
5 forecasters
Who will win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Bola Tinubu
Peter Obi
Rotimi Amaechi
Other
3 comments
12 forecasters
Will China further tighten its post–November 10, 2026 rare-earth export-control regime?
70%chance
3 comments
5 forecasters
Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid CF
Atlético de Madrid
VIllarreal CF
16 others