Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events14 comments
18 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton13.2%
Katie Porter34.1%
Tom Steyer37.4%
Other6.6%
35 comments
190 forecasters
Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?
90%chance
64% this week
14 comments
167 forecasters
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before April 27, 2026?
10%chance
53% this week
3 comments
3 forecasters
Will atomic chess be solved by 2100, and if so, what result?
Win for WhiteHidden
DrawHidden
Win for BlackHidden
No Proof by 2100Hidden
3 comments
3 forecasters
When will the next parliamentary elections be held in Greece?
Current estimate
08 May 2027
0 comments
113 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?
0.5%chance
2.5% this week
8 comments
13 forecasters
Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?
2%chance
0 comments
2 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
41.5%chance
4 comments
59 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 50020.1%
Nikkei 22530.6%
FTSE 10014.3%
DAX 4013.3%
3 comments
6 forecasters
How many United Nations member states will there be on January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
193 U.N. Member States
6 comments
15 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
66%chance
46% this week