Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events14 comments
24 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton8.2%
Katie Porter19.4%
Tom Steyer52.1%
Xavier Becerra10.2%
3 comments
7 forecasters
Will atomic chess be solved by 2100, and if so, what result?
Win for White24.6%
Draw20.3%
Win for Black0.9%
No Proof by 210054.2%
9 comments
8 forecasters
Who will win the Maryland Montgomery County Public Schools 2026 Student Member of the Board Election?
Leul DawitHidden
Reemey GhermayHidden
6 comments
15 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
66%chance
46% this week
3 comments
7 forecasters
How many United Nations member states will there be on January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
193 U.N. Member States
0 comments
57 forecasters
Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?
65%chance
23 comments
19 forecasters
When will new bans on the open-environment release of gene-drive mosquitoes cover 200 million people?
Current estimate
Dec 2037
0 comments
3 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
50%chance
5 comments
61 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 50020.3%
Nikkei 22531.5%
FTSE 10014.2%
DAX 4013.4%
25 comments
20 forecasters
How many people worldwide will have completed vaccination with the M72 tuberculosis vaccine before 2040?
Current estimate
192M People
23 comments
21 forecasters
What will be the lower 95% confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the M72 tuberculosis vaccine in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?
Current estimate
19.6%