Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events14 comments
18 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton13.2%
Katie Porter34.1%
Tom Steyer37.4%
Other6.6%
29 comments
187 forecasters
Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?
90%chance
64% this week
0 comments
112 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?
0.5%chance
1.5% this week
8 comments
12 forecasters
Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?
1%chance
7 comments
57 forecasters
What will the WatchCharts Overall Market Index value be on April 30, 2026?
Current estimate
32.6k $
3 comments
6 forecasters
How many United Nations member states will there be on January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
193 U.N. Member States
4 comments
58 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 50019.5%
Nikkei 22530%
FTSE 10014.1%
DAX 4013.4%
0 comments
2 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
41.5%chance
47 comments
258 forecasters
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?
14%chance
31% this week
0 comments
49 forecasters
Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
6 comments
15 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
66%chance
46% this week