41 comments
835 forecasters

Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

99.9%chance
18.9% this week
4 comments
60 forecasters

Will Iceland vote Yes in the 2026 EU negotiations referendum?

60%chance
27 comments
119 forecasters

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?

67%chance
4% this week
5 comments
53 forecasters

What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?

Fable Open, Mythos Open29.4%
Fable US-only, Mythos Open19.6%
Fable Open, Mythos Closed13.7%
Fable US-only, Mythos Closed19.6%
3 comments
53 forecasters

Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?

35%chance
5% today
56 comments
131 forecasters

What will be the relative rank of the weakest team to advance to the knockout stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current estimate
45.1
2 comments
62 forecasters

Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

17%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster

Will Alpha-gal Syndrome (AGS) be added to the CDC National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) before end of 120th Congress?

60%chance
0 comments
7 forecasters

Will SpaceX make any acquisition valued at more than $100B before 2028?

50%chance
0 comments
6 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?

Current estimate
38.8%
0 comments
2 forecasters

How many active US drilling rigs will there be for the week ending July 31, 2026?

Current estimate
565
0 comments
6 forecasters

What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?

Current estimate
6.16%
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