1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
64%chance
2 comments
6 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
5%chance
2 comments
74 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
2 comments
72 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
583 Cultural Sites
4 comments
42 forecasters
What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedtomorrow
3 comments
56 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?
Dario Amodei
Artificial Intelligence
Astronaut(s)
Mark Carney
8 others
6 comments
79 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
682 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Sep 2027
1 comment
83 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
2.5%chance
6.5% this week
2 comments
40 forecasters
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
0 comments
10 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on the eve of Election Day 2026?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days