1 comment
3 forecasters
Will ChatGPT-type chatbots disappear before 2100?
Current estimate
Revealedtomorrow
%chance
22 comments
90 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?
Current estimate
4.91 bots
10 comments
12 forecasters
How long will the employee lockup period be after OpenAI's IPO?
90-134
135-179
180
>180
2 others
3 comments
1 forecaster
Which party will win the next (post-2023) parliamentary elections in Slovakia?
SMER-SD (Social Democracy)
PS (Progressivism)
Slovensko (Populism)
Republika (Nationalism)
3 others
8 comments
12 forecasters
How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?
90-134
135-179
180
>180
2 others
3 comments
6 forecasters
When will a vaccine for any major neurodegenerative disease receive regulatory approval?
Current estimate
06 Nov 2028
11 comments
89 forecasters
What will be the US national debt on December 31, 2026?
Current estimate
41.1T $
212 comments
313 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?
AI-Fizzle
Futurama
AI-Dystopia
Singularia
Paperclipalypse
12 comments
90 forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?
Likud
Yashar
Other
1 comment
5 forecasters
Will South Sudan hold a national presidential election before January 1, 2027?
35%chance