1 comment
3 forecasters

Will ChatGPT-type chatbots disappear before 2100?

Current estimate
Revealedtomorrow
%chance
22 comments
90 forecasters

How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?

Current estimate
4.91 bots
10 comments
12 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after OpenAI's IPO?

90-134
13.8%
135-179
28.6%
180
19.7%
>180
29.6%
2 others
3 comments
1 forecaster

Which party will win the next (post-2023) parliamentary elections in Slovakia?

SMER-SD (Social Democracy)
18%
PS (Progressivism)
30%
Slovensko (Populism)
5%
Republika (Nationalism)
40%
3 others
8 comments
12 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?

90-134
14.4%
135-179
21%
180
18%
>180
34.8%
2 others
3 comments
6 forecasters

When will a vaccine for any major neurodegenerative disease receive regulatory approval?

Current estimate
06 Nov 2028
11 comments
89 forecasters

What will be the US national debt on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate
41.1T $
212 comments
313 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
6%
Futurama
36%
AI-Dystopia
26.4%
Singularia
19.6%
Paperclipalypse
12%
12 comments
90 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

Likud
41%
Yashar
58%
Other
1%
19 comments
20 forecasters

When will Anthropic IPO?

Current estimate
08 Dec 2026
7 comments
98 forecasters

Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

11.5%chance
1 comment
5 forecasters

Will South Sudan hold a national presidential election before January 1, 2027?

35%chance
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