41 comments
835 forecasters
Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?
99.9%chance
18.9% this week
27 comments
119 forecasters
Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?
67%chance
4% this week
5 comments
53 forecasters
What will be the access status of Claude Fable and Mythos on September 1, 2026?
Fable Open, Mythos Open29.4%
Fable US-only, Mythos Open19.6%
Fable Open, Mythos Closed13.7%
Fable US-only, Mythos Closed19.6%
3 comments
53 forecasters
Will James M. McDonald be sworn in as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York before August 22, 2026?
35%chance
5% today
56 comments
131 forecasters
What will be the relative rank of the weakest team to advance to the knockout stage in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Current estimate
45.1
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will Alpha-gal Syndrome (AGS) be added to the CDC National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) before end of 120th Congress?
60%chance
0 comments
7 forecasters
Will SpaceX make any acquisition valued at more than $100B before 2028?
50%chance
0 comments
6 forecasters
What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on July 14, 2026?
Current estimate
38.8%
0 comments
2 forecasters
How many active US drilling rigs will there be for the week ending July 31, 2026?
Current estimate
565
0 comments
6 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on July 14, 2026?
Current estimate
6.16%