5 comments
75 forecasters
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?
20%chance
21 comments
93 forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Gary Marcus
Miles Brundage
4 comments
70 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
2 comments
58 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
584 Cultural Sites
1 comment
72 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
4%chance
2 comments
45 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
1 comment
2 forecasters
How many US states will there be in 2050?
<50
50
51
52
>52
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in October 2026?
Current estimate
44.3k jobs
3 comments
4 forecasters
When will ChatGPT Dots become available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers in the EEA?
Current estimate
02 Feb 2027
20 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?
Current estimate
3.73 Percentage points