Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events14 comments
20 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton11.3%
Katie Porter21.4%
Tom Steyer53.4%
Other4.5%
41 comments
196 forecasters
Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?
90%chance
60.8% this week
6 comments
8 forecasters
Who will win the Maryland Montgomery County Public Schools 2026 Student Member of the Board Election?
Leul DawitHidden
Reemey GhermayHidden
0 comments
56 forecasters
Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?
65%chance
6 comments
15 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
66%chance
46% this week
3 comments
7 forecasters
How many United Nations member states will there be on January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
193 U.N. Member States
0 comments
3 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
50%chance
4 comments
61 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 50020.2%
Nikkei 22530.2%
FTSE 10015.1%
DAX 4013.1%
8 comments
15 forecasters
Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?
3%chance
23 comments
19 forecasters
When will new bans on the open-environment release of gene-drive mosquitoes cover 200 million people?
Current estimate
Dec 2037