5 comments
75 forecasters
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?
20%chance
21 comments
93 forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Gary Marcus
Miles Brundage
4 comments
70 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
2 comments
58 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
584 Cultural Sites
1 comment
72 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
4%chance
2 comments
45 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
1 comment
2 forecasters
How many US states will there be in 2050?
<50
50
51
52
>52
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in October 2026?
Current estimate
44.3k jobs
3 comments
4 forecasters
When will ChatGPT Dots become available to ChatGPT Pro subscribers in the EEA?
Current estimate
02 Feb 2027