664 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
07 Sep 2027
8 comments
87 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
9 comments
100 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
1 comment
4 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?
Current estimate
71.1k jobs
8 comments
94 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
25%chance
10% this week
4 comments
94 forecasters
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?
Current estimate
45%
7 comments
49 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
1 comment
1 forecaster
On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?
Current estimate
Jun 2034
6 comments
50 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
10%chance
35% this week
19 comments
40 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
75%chance
25% this week