657 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
03 Oct 2027
16 comments
105 forecasters

Will the United States attack Oman before 2027?

4%chance
9 comments
84 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
35.9%
1
38%
2
19.5%
3
5.1%
4+
1.5%
6 comments
69 forecasters

Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

Doctors Without Borders
8.3%
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
9.3%
Other organization
19.3%
Other individual
33.8%
7 others
7 comments
80 forecasters

Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?

34%chance
19 comments
29 forecasters

Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?

75%chance
25% this week
3 comments
77 forecasters

What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?

Current estimate
45.1%
1 comment
1 forecaster

On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?

Current estimate
Jun 2034
1 comment
13 forecasters

Will Waymo achieve 1 million weekly autonomous rides before 2027?

40%chance
2 comments
6 forecasters

Will the 2026 World Cup deliver the predicted economic boost to US host cities?

39%chance
3 comments
7 forecasters

Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?

FC Barcelona
56.8%
Real Madrid CF
36%
AtlΓ©tico de Madrid
5.5%
VIllarreal CF
0.1%
16 others
61 comments
248 forecasters

Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?

95%chance
14% this week
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