669 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
11 Sep 2027
10 comments
81 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
2 comments
8 forecasters
What will be Lula’s first-round vote-share margin over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Current estimate
2.36%
2 comments
72 forecasters
What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?
Current estimate
244k Iranian Toman
4 comments
73 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Harry Kane
Kylian Mbappé
Rodri
Lamine Yamal
3 others
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?
40%chance
1 comment
9 forecasters
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?
29%chance
4 comments
6 forecasters
Will smartphones disappear before 2100?
Current estimate
Revealedtomorrow
%chance
6 comments
56 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
12%chance
38% this week
15 comments
113 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+