37 comments
164 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
0.1%
1
88.7%
2
10.1%
3
1%
4+
0.1%
2 comments
32 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?

Luiz InΓ‘cio Lula da Silva
22%
FlΓ‘vio Bolsonaro
78%
5 comments
23 forecasters

Will Spain hold a general election before May 23, 2027?

99.2%chance
49.2% this week
18 comments
67 forecasters

What will be the winning margin in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election runoff?

Current estimate
3.64 Percentage points
10 comments
24 forecasters

Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?

0.9%chance
1.1% today
6 comments
57 forecasters

Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?

13%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Russia disable global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?

1%chance
0 comments
11 forecasters

Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026?

39%chance
1 comment
2 forecasters

What will be the first year when WHO reports zero MERS cases globally?

2029
9.1%
2030
9.2%
2031
9.3%
2032 or beyond
54.9%
2 others
221 comments
325 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
5.5%
Futurama
42%
AI-Dystopia
24.3%
Singularia
17.7%
Paperclipalypse
10.5%
7 comments
8 forecasters

Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League due to financial-rule breaches before 2030?

50%chance
1 comment
6 forecasters

Will Gavin Newsom call a special session of the California Legislature on AI before January 1, 2027?

10%chance
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