2 comments
13 forecasters
What will be Lula’s first-round vote-share margin over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Current estimate
0.96%
6 comments
124 forecasters
Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?
49%chance
36 comments
103 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?
Current estimate
5.01 bots
5 comments
68 forecasters
What will be the highest intraday value of the VIX between October 1 and December 24, 2026?
Current estimate
24.3 Units
3 comments
68 forecasters
How many politicians will leave their cabinet positions in the UK government before 2027?
0
1
2
3 or more
3 comments
68 forecasters
What will be the total spending by all Senate candidates in the 2026 US election cycle?
Current estimate
1.69B $
1 comment
2 forecasters
What will be the first year when WHO reports zero MERS cases globally?
2027
2028
2029
2030
2 others
4 comments
6 forecasters
Which party will win the next (post-2023) parliamentary elections in Slovakia?
SMER-SD (Social Democracy)
PS (Progressivism)
Slovensko (Populism)
Republika (Nationalism)
3 others
1 comment
3 forecasters
Will Gavin Newsom call a special session of the California Legislature on AI before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
11 comments
118 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Harry Kane
Kylian Mbappé
Lamine Yamal
Other
3 others