4 comments
15 forecasters
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?
44%chance
2 comments
6 forecasters
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?
64%chance
2 comments
7 forecasters
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen
Elon Musk
Jeff & Janine Yass
Elizabeth & Richard Uihlein
2 others
8 comments
66 forecasters
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?
6%chance
19% this week
38 comments
125 forecasters
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?
Negotiated De-escalation
Russian Advance
Ukrainian Advance
Continued Stalemate
1 comment
11 forecasters
Will a SHA-256 Collision or Preimage be Publicly Demonstrated before 2050?
40%chance
32% this week
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in August 2026?
Current estimate
41.3k jobs
4 comments
2 forecasters
Will USTR publish a final overcapacity determination before September 24, 2026?
12%chance
2 comments
13 forecasters
Will South Korea announce a specific date for the 5th Nuri rocket launch before September 1, 2026?
47%chance
0 comments
19 forecasters
Will the desktop market share of Linux exceed 8% in August 2026?
79%chance
37.8% this week