669 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
16 Sep 2027
2 comments
10 forecasters
What will be Lula’s first-round vote-share margin over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Current estimate
1.14%
10 comments
82 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
0 comments
5 forecasters
What percentage of companies globally will fulfill their pre-2026 cage-free commitments in 2026 and 2027?
Current estimate
19.8%
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?
14%chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
What will be the total retail sales of plant-based meat and seafood in 2026?
Current estimate
6.8B $
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?
Current estimate
8.27B Shrimp
1 comment
7 forecasters
Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?
6%chance
37% this week
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?
40%chance
4 comments
75 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Harry Kane
Kylian Mbappé
Rodri
Lamine Yamal
3 others
1 comment
9 forecasters
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?
29%chance