664 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
18 Sep 2027
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?
28%chance
6 comments
51 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
7%chance
43% this week
1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?
29%chance
1 comment
58 forecasters
What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?
Current estimate
247k Iranian Toman
10 comments
106 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
1 comment
8 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?
Current estimate
64.7k jobs
8 comments
61 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
8 comments
91 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others