1 comment
3 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
50%chance
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
0.1%chance
2 comments
70 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
585 Cultural Sites
2 comments
70 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
6 comments
76 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
4 comments
35 forecasters
What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
1 comment
81 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
3%chance
2% this week
5 comments
84 forecasters
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?
18%chance
682 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
31 Aug 2027
2 comments
42 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?
Dario Amodei
Artificial Intelligence
Astronaut(s)
Mark Carney
8 others
1 comment
8 forecasters
What percent of Americans will oppose the Iran War on the eve of Election Day 2026?
Current estimate
Revealedin 5 days