5 comments
73 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
5 comments
79 forecasters
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?
18%chance
2 comments
63 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
584 Cultural Sites
2 comments
63 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
1 comment
75 forecasters
Will Israel withdraw behind the original Yellow Line in Gaza before January 1, 2027?
3%chance
21 comments
94 forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Gary Marcus
Miles Brundage
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
Current estimate
Revealedtomorrow
%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
%chance
1 comment
3 forecasters
How many US states will there be in 2050?
<50
50
51
52
>52
2 comments
47 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
0 comments
6 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on the eve of Election Day 2026?
Current estimate
Revealednext week