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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธUS Midterms๐Ÿ’ฅIran Warโš”๏ธMetaculus Cupโ“Top Questions๐Ÿ—ž๏ธCurrent Events๐Ÿค–Artificial Intelligence๐ŸŒGeopolitics๐Ÿ’ผEconomy and Business๐Ÿš€Space
37 comments
167 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
0.1%
1
89.8%
2
9.2%
3
0.8%
4+
0.1%
2 comments
34 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential election?

Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva
15%
Flรกvio Bolsonaro
85%
5 comments
23 forecasters

Will Spain hold a general election before May 23, 2027?

99.2%chance
49.2% this week
18 comments
76 forecasters

What will be the winning margin in Brazilโ€™s 2026 presidential election runoff?

Current estimate
3.79 Percentage points
10 comments
25 forecasters

Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?

0.9%chance
6 comments
66 forecasters

Will the US approve a $10B exchange stabilisation facility for Pakistan before 2027?

12%chance
0 comments
13 forecasters

Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026?

28.6%chance
4 comments
50 forecasters

What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?

Current estimate
334T tokens
2 comments
63 forecasters

Will Josรฉ Mourinho still be the manager for Real Madrid on December 31, 2026?

86%chance
0 comments
12 forecasters

What will be Donald Trump's approval rating on Election Day 2026?

Current estimate
36.6%
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Metaculus exist in 2050?

66%chance
222 comments
325 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
4.9%
Futurama
40.2%
AI-Dystopia
24.1%
Singularia
19.2%
Paperclipalypse
11.5%
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