664 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
23 Sep 2027
7 comments
82 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
9 comments
96 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
8 comments
91 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
30%chance
5% today
1 comment
3 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?
Current estimate
72.5k jobs
4 comments
91 forecasters
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?
Current estimate
45.2%
1 comment
1 forecaster
On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?
Current estimate
Jun 2034
19 comments
36 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
75%chance
25% this week
4 comments
7 forecasters
Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid CF
AtlΓ©tico de Madrid
VIllarreal CF
16 others
184 comments
285 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?
AI-Fizzle
Futurama
AI-Dystopia
Singularia
Paperclipalypse