Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events6 comments
20 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
80%chance
55% this week
0 comments
13 forecasters
Will United Airlines and American Airlines announce a definitive merger agreement before January 1, 2027?
23%chance
4 comments
1 forecaster
Where will Wishbone Deluxe debut on the Billboard 200?
Current estimate
8.98 Rank
2 comments
60 forecasters
Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?
20%chance
5% today
3 comments
11 forecasters
Will atomic chess be solved by 2100, and if so, what result?
Win for White29.7%
Draw20.6%
Win for Black7%
No Proof by 210042.7%
0 comments
20 forecasters
What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?
Current estimate
2.48
0 comments
17 forecasters
How many new national emergencies will Donald J. Trump declare under the National Emergencies Act in 2026?
Current estimate
4.4 US Emergencies Declared
14 comments
28 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton9.4%
Katie Porter15%
Tom Steyer54.3%
Xavier Becerra10.8%
0 comments
60 forecasters
Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?
65%chance
9 comments
9 forecasters
Who will win the Maryland Montgomery County Public Schools 2026 Student Member of the Board Election?
Leul DawitHidden
Reemey GhermayHidden
1 comment
82 forecasters
Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?
Blue Bloc2.4%
Red Bloc19.7%
Cross Bloc14.8%
No Formation before May63.1%