M

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved :Yes

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-02-18

How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?

How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?

77%

What percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031?

8.7

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

38%

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-08

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

98%

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

25%

Engage with Metaculus

Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.

We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!