664 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
08 Sep 2027
1 comment
7 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?
Current estimate
66.9k jobs
6 comments
50 forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
10%chance
40% this week
9 comments
106 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
8 comments
91 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
8 comments
60 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?
Current estimate
Revealedin 12 hours
%chance
8 comments
97 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
28.7%chance
15.3% this week
20 comments
44 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
75%chance
25% this week
4 comments
58 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ousmane Dembélé
Harry Kane
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Kylian Mbappé
3 others