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🇺🇸US Midterms💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events🤖Artificial Intelligence🌍Geopolitics💼Economy and Business🚀Space
211 comments
302 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
6.1%
Futurama
35.3%
AI-Dystopia
27%
Singularia
19.4%
Paperclipalypse
12.3%
9 comments
65 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

Likud
42.9%
Yashar
55.2%
Other
1.9%
10 comments
40 forecasters

Will smartphones disappear before 2100?

60%chance
5% today
3 comments
14 forecasters

Will a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed before January 1, 2028?

40%chance
2 comments
74 forecasters

Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

15%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

70.6%chance
13 comments
68 forecasters

How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?

Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
15 comments
17 forecasters

When will Anthropic IPO?

Current estimate
02 Dec 2026
3 comments
7 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?

90-134
14.6%
135-179
24.3%
180
9.7%
>180
37.9%
2 others
1 comment
8 forecasters

Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?

5%chance
38% this week
1 comment
1 forecaster

Will the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University admit members of the public on 7+ days in 2027?

50%chance
1 comment
18 forecasters

Will the Internet disappear before 2100?

2%chance
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