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Introducing Fan Graphs

Metaculus Meta

We’re very excited to introduce fan graphs today! This new feature offers a clear, intuitive way to display the observed past data points and predicted future data points in question group time series. And, we think they look really nice:


Historical data links up with current forecasts' medians and interquartile ranges to streamline the identification and interpretation of trends.


Because individual user forecasts appear in the fan graph alongside the community's, it's easier than ever to recognize how your model of the world differs from others'.

Where can I find fan graphs?

Fan graphs currently appear on question groups featuring time series. Here are some to get you started:

How can I add a fan graph to a question group?

Message @admins on a question group page to request a fan graph be added.

(Also, see the question groups discussion post for a related update: You can now create and submit your own question groups!)

What's next?

The next step for this feature is tooltips. Soon, when you hover over a point in the graph, the prediction values will be displayed.

Further out, we'll add proportional x axes. Currently, all dates are evenly distributed across the x-axis, even if there are big gaps in time. In the future we want to visually represent the distance between x values accurately to make interpretation of the fan graph even easier.

We look forward to hearing your feedback in the comments below!
(To report any technical issues, click 'Feedback' in the footer.)