Freshen Up Your Forecasts

News breaks. Time marches on. Some forecasts stay current and others grow stale. Now you can more easily find predictions that need updating and reaffirm those you stand by.

How Does It Work?

In the question feed, use the search menu and select 'Predicted' questions.

Questions will now display your last prediction and the date you made it. Click Reaffirm Prediction to make a new prediction at your current value.

If you also sort the feed by "Oldest prediction", your reaffirmed predictions will fall to the bottom of the feed, making it easier to find forecasts to update.

The same Reaffirm Prediction button also appears on question pages—question groups included. Just click to reaffirm all of your predictions in the group at once. Or, update individual predictions and click 'Save Changes.'

Candidate Questions

Here are a few questions where reaffirming or updating might be useful:

• Will There Be Human and Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

• Will the European Union Meet its 2030 Targets Under the Paris Climate Treaty?

• Will Ray Kurzweil Be Proven Generally Right in His Predictions?

• Will a Practical Nuclear Fusion Reactor First Be Developed in China?

• Will SpaceX Land People on Mars Before 2030?

More Accurate Aggregates

Reaffirming predictions has no effect on individual scoring, but it should improve the aggregate forecasts. The community and Metaculus predictions weight recent forecasts more heavily, so reaffirming or updating your predictions should sharpen aggregates' accuracy.

Let us know what you think in the comments!